美国中期选举的所有可能性分析及预测 | 2026.8.17
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | We all know the future of Trump's presidency rides on the midterm elections | 我们都知道特朗普的总统任期 将会在中期选举中度过 |
| 0:06 | so I dug through thousands of polls to chart out each and every possible scenario for how the balance of power in | 所以我通过成千上万的民意测验 找出了每一种可能的情况 来了解权力的平衡 |
| 0:13 | Washington DC will be after the midterm elections and we're going to go through them from the least likely to the most likely | 华盛顿将在中期选举之后 我们将会从最不可能到最有可能 |
| 0:20 | Scenario number one and I'm going to tell you why each scenario could in fact possibly happen and remember the numbers | 第一场景,我会告诉你 为什么每个场景都有可能发生 并记住数字 |
| 0:28 | They speak for themselves. | 他们为自己说话。 |
| 0:29 | So don't blame the messenger and we're going to start off with the least likely scenario | 所以不要责怪信使 我们要从最不可能的情景开始 |
| 0:33 | Scenario number four and that is less than a 1% chance that Republicans hold on to the US House of Representatives | 第四场景,共和党人对美国众议院 的把握不到1% |
| 0:40 | But Democrats actually win the United States Senate. | 但民主党实际上赢得了美国参议院. |
| 0:43 | How could this possibly happen? | 怎么会这样? |
| 0:45 | Well, if you have been following politics over the last year or so, you know, of course, there was the big redistricting that | 好吧,如果你在过去一年左右一直 关注政治, 你知道,当然, 有大 重新区划 |
展开字幕全文（236 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | We all know the future of Trump's presidency rides on the midterm elections | 我们都知道特朗普的总统任期 将会在中期选举中度过 |
| 2 | so I dug through thousands of polls to chart out each and every possible scenario for how the balance of power in | 所以我通过成千上万的民意测验 找出了每一种可能的情况 来了解权力的平衡 |
| 3 | Washington DC will be after the midterm elections and we're going to go through them from the least likely to the most likely | 华盛顿将在中期选举之后 我们将会从最不可能到最有可能 |
| 4 | Scenario number one and I'm going to tell you why each scenario could in fact possibly happen and remember the numbers | 第一场景,我会告诉你 为什么每个场景都有可能发生 并记住数字 |
| 5 | They speak for themselves. | 他们为自己说话。 |
| 6 | So don't blame the messenger and we're going to start off with the least likely scenario | 所以不要责怪信使 我们要从最不可能的情景开始 |
| 7 | Scenario number four and that is less than a 1% chance that Republicans hold on to the US House of Representatives | 第四场景,共和党人对美国众议院 的把握不到1% |
| 8 | But Democrats actually win the United States Senate. | 但民主党实际上赢得了美国参议院. |
| 9 | How could this possibly happen? | 怎么会这样? |
| 10 | Well, if you have been following politics over the last year or so, you know, of course, there was the big redistricting that | 好吧,如果你在过去一年左右一直 关注政治, 你知道,当然, 有大 重新区划 |
| 11 | redistricting that happened across the political map | 跨越政治地图重新划区 |
| 12 | It was happening everywhere from the great state of Texas all the way out to the leftmost coast of | 从德克萨斯州一直到最左岸 |
| 13 | California the great state of California with all those electoral votes and you can see here the national vote margin | 加州是加州的伟大州 拥有如此多的选票 你可以在这里看到全国的选票差额 |
| 14 | Dems need to win the house control | 德姆斯需要赢得房屋控制 |
| 15 | Well under the current lines, right the lines that are happening right now | 在现在的线路下, 右线 正在发生的线路 |
| 16 | They only would have to have won the National House popular vote by less than a point by less than a point | 他们只好赢得国民院的选票 不到一点,不到一点 |
| 17 | So basically any win would have gotten the house | 所以,基本上任何胜利都会得到房子 |
| 18 | But now with redistricting look at this the Democrats in order to win back the House of Representatives | 但现在重新划区,看这个民主党 为了赢得众议院的胜利 |
| 19 | They have to win by anywhere from three all the way up to four percentage points | 他们总得从三分到四分 |
| 20 | So Democrats can't just win by a little they got to win by a lot to win back the house on the other hand | 所以民主党人不能只靠一点点就赢 他们必须靠很多才能赢回房子 |
| 21 | What are we seeing in terms of the Senate that could make this scenario possibly happen? | 我们从元老院来看, 究竟有什么可能使这种情况发生呢? |
| 22 | Even if it isn't too likely well, it's all about Donald Trump, baby | 即使不是那么好, 都是为了唐纳德·特朗普,宝贝 |
| 23 | It's all about Donald Trump | 都是为了唐纳德·特朗普 |
| 24 | Look at Trump's net approval rating across these Senate battleground states | 看看特朗普在参议院战场各州的净批准率 |
| 25 | And these are states Democrats have to win at least a few of them for control. | 而这些州民主党人必须赢得至少几个州的控制权. |
| 26 | Look at him. | 看着他 |
| 27 | They're red | 红的 |
| 28 | They're red across the political map a state like Texas that Donald Trump won by double digits | 他们横跨政治地图 像德克萨斯州 唐纳德·特朗普以两位数获胜 |
| 29 | He's way down underwater in the Rio Grande Valley at minus nine points, Ohio | 他在里约格兰德河谷下沉 零下九分,俄亥俄州 |
| 30 | Another state he won by double digits ten points underwater Iowa the great field of dreams | 在爱荷华州水下以两位数赢得了伟大的梦想 |
| 31 | Well, it's a field of nightmares right now for Donald Trump | 对唐纳德·特朗普来说,这是一场噩梦 |
| 32 | He's ten points underwater North Carolina the Tar Heel State | 他在北卡罗来纳州水下10分 |
| 33 | 14 points underwater in Maine where of course Susan Collins is running and Democrats have let's say had some issues | 在缅因州水下14点 苏珊·柯林斯当然在那里 民主党人也有一些问题 |
| 34 | But even there look at that Donald Trump is 21 points underwater | 但即使看到唐纳德·特朗普在水下21分 |
| 35 | So if these elections these Senate races are determined by Trump and redistricting really turns out to be a big deal | 所以如果这些选举 参议院的种族是由特朗普决定的 重新分区真的是一个大问题 |
| 36 | Well, you couldn't back see a Republican House and a Democratic Senate even if not too likely | 你看不到共和党和民主党参议院 即使没有太多的可能性 |
| 37 | But more likely how about scenario number three, what are we talking about here? | 但更可能的情况是,第三种情况, 我们在这里谈论什么? |
| 38 | Well, this comes in at 15% not too high, but certainly much higher than less than 1% and that is a G o | 这个比例是15%,不是太高, 但肯定比1%要高得多。 |
| 39 | P sweep. | P扫荡. |
| 40 | I wish I had a broom. | 我希望我有一个扫帚。 |
| 41 | I'd sweep it across but hold on. | 我会把它扫过,但坚持住。 |
| 42 | I'm gonna tell | 我会告诉 |
| 43 | Yeah, Nick Nick next time around get me a broom. | 尼克下次给我拿扫帚 |
| 44 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 45 | Sounds good. | 听起来不错 |
| 46 | Okay | 还好 |
| 47 | So a GOP sweep at 15% how could that happen? | 那么,一个GOP扫描 15% 怎么可能发生? |
| 48 | How could that happen? | 怎么会这样? |
| 49 | Well, take a look at the median seat needed to win control | 好吧,看看中位数 赢得控制权所需的座位 |
| 50 | These were the 2024 presidential results based upon redistricting Trump won the median house seat by five points | 这些是2024年基于重新区划的总统结果,特朗普以5分赢得中位席位. |
| 51 | My goodness gracious. | 我的老天爷 |
| 52 | That means that Democrats have to win at least one seat at least one seat that Trump won by five points | 这意味着民主党人必须至少赢得一个席位 至少一个席位特朗普赢得了5分 |
| 53 | What about in the United States Senate? | 在美国参议院怎么样? |
| 54 | It's even more | 更厉害 |
| 55 | Even more difficult for Democrats they have to win at least one seat that Donald Trump won't get this by 13 points | 民主党人更难赢得至少一个席位 唐纳德·特朗普不会得到13分 |
| 56 | What that is very very difficult indeed? | 这确实是什么非常困难? |
| 57 | So if the map looks anything like it did in 2024 | 所以,如果地图看起来 任何事情像它在2024年 |
| 58 | Well Democrats definitely have their half their work cut out for them in the Senate and in the house as well now beyond that | 民主党人肯定有他们一半的工作 在参议院和众议院 以及现在之外 |
| 59 | Well, let's just talk about the Democratic brand, you know, Donald Trump's political brand ain't too hot to trot these days | 我们来谈谈民主党的牌子吧 唐纳德·特朗普的政治牌子最近不太热闹 |
| 60 | But I got to tell you P you when it comes to the Democratic brand the net favorability rating of the Democratic Party | 但我得告诉你 关于民主党品牌 民主党的净优势评级 |
| 61 | You know back in 2018 when Democrats during the first Trump presidency, right when they were able to win back control the house | 你知道,2018年,民主党在第一次特朗普总统任期内, 当他们能够赢回对房子的控制时, |
| 62 | They were even they were they were even right favorable minus unfavorable even at zero zero zero now. | 即使现在零时零分,他们甚至也算对了 |
| 63 | Look at this | 看这个 |
| 64 | 25 points underwater. | 水下25点. |
| 65 | Oh | 瓳 |
| 66 | You know the dumb brand as I said, it's not too good these days, it's not too good | 你懂我说的蠢牌子的 这年头不太好 |
| 67 | It kind of smells like a New York sidewalk in the summer beyond that | 夏天有纽约人行道的味道 |
| 68 | How about this? | 这个怎么样? |
| 69 | How about the fact that voters at this point say that the Democratic Party is too far to the left the left? | 此时的选民说民主党离左翼太远了,这个事实如何? |
| 70 | I'm going my left. | 我往左边走 |
| 71 | I guess that's I guess that stage left, right? | 我猜这就是我猜那个舞台左,对不对? |
| 72 | Take a look voters saying the Democratic Party | 看看选民说民主党 |
| 73 | That's too liberal in | 这太自由了 |
| 74 | 1996 it was 42 percent | 1996年为42% |
| 75 | 2013 48 percent by the by an earlier poll this year from the Washington Post up like a rocket | 2013年48%通过今年早些时候的民意调查 从华盛顿邮报上看就像火箭 |
| 76 | 57 percent of voters nationwide said that the Democratic Party was in fact too liberal | 全国57%的选民说,民主党事实上太自由了 |
| 77 | So the Democratic brand if this election turns on the Democratic brand well, then Republicans still have a real shot a real shot | 因此,民主党品牌 如果这次选举 打开民主党品牌, 那么共和党仍然有一个真正的镜头 |
| 78 | It's a low shot, but it's a real shot of maintaining power in | 低射线,但它是一个真正的镜头 维持电力在 |
| 79 | Washington in both the House and the United States Senate now | 华盛顿在众议院和美国参议院 |
| 80 | This is exhausting me a little bit. | 这让我有点累 |
| 81 | So quick little drink little little cream soda for me. | 这么快就给我喝点奶油汽水 |
| 82 | It's good | 不错 |
| 83 | Okay, what about scenario number two? | 好吧,第二场景呢? |
| 84 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 85 | Now we're starting to get somewhere. | 现在我们开始有所进展了 |
| 86 | Hello. | 哈罗 |
| 87 | Okay | 还好 |
| 88 | 2026 midterm outcome chances. | 2026年中期结果机会. |
| 89 | How about a Democratic House and a Republican held Senate that comes in pretty high on our list | 民主院和共和党的参议院 在我们的名单上名列前茅 |
| 90 | 33% chance of that's happening. | 33%的概率发生。 |
| 91 | Why is it? | 为什么? |
| 92 | That this in fact could happen and it's high up on the list. | 事实上,这有可能发生 并且它名列榜首。 |
| 93 | Well, let's just talk about history | 我们来谈谈历史吧 |
| 94 | Okay, let's talk about history time | 好,我们谈谈历史时间 |
| 95 | Prez party loses in midterm elections in the last hundred years Democrats need a gain of at least three house seats | 普雷兹党在过去一百年的中期选举中输了 民主党需要至少获得三个众议院席位 |
| 96 | Well, the president's party has lost a net gain of three house seats | 那么,总统的党 已经失去了净收益 三个房屋席位 |
| 97 | Eighty-eight percent of the time that's pretty gosh darn high. | 百分之八十八的时间是相当糟糕的高。 |
| 98 | What about they lose four plus Senate seats | 那他们会失去四席加参议院席位吗? |
| 99 | Which is what Democrats in fact need in their net gain in the Senate to regain control | 民主党在参议院的 净收益中需要这一点 才能重新控制 |
| 100 | That's only happened | 只有这样 |
| 101 | 56% of the time so just based upon history | 56%的时间 仅仅基于历史 |
| 102 | We wouldn't fact expect that Democrats have a much better chance of doing what they need to do in the House of Representatives | 我们并不认为民主党人有更好的机会 在众议院做他们需要做的事 |
| 103 | Then what they need to do in the United States Senate and in fact there are other structural factors that make that likely as well | 那么他们在美国参议院需要做什么,事实上,还有其他结构因素也使得 |
| 104 | Well, you know, I mentioned redistricting right I mentioned redistricting and the fact that Democrats have a higher bar a higher bar that they | 嗯,你知道,我提到重新划区的权利 我提到重新划区的事实 民主党有一个更高的酒吧 一个更高的酒吧,他们 |
| 105 | Have to get past but if we're talking about the National House of what they have to win it by three to four points | 得过去,但是如果我们说到 国家之家,他们必须赢3到4分 |
| 106 | Guess what their current poll lead is. | 猜猜他们目前的民意调查线索是什么 |
| 107 | It's way north of that. | 这是北边。 |
| 108 | It's way north of that | 北边 |
| 109 | We're talking about a seven point lead at this point | 我们说的是7点领先点 |
| 110 | So Democrats are doing what they need to do in the US House at this point despite the structural | 因此,民主党人正在做他们需要做的 美国众议院此时,尽管结构 |
| 111 | Disadvantage that redistricting in fact is giving them and is aiding Republicans. | 重新划分选区的不利因素实际上使他们受益,并正在帮助共和党人。 |
| 112 | But beyond that take a look here | 但除此之外,你看看这里 |
| 113 | Okay, then we're talking about the Senate map right the Senate map as I mentioned tilts | 好吧,然后我们谈论参议院地图 右参议院地图 当我提到倾斜 |
| 114 | Heavily to the right heavily to the right and you can see it here the median in the six key Senate races | 右下角重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅重磅 |
| 115 | We're talking Alaska, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas. | 我们说的是阿拉斯加、缅因州、爱荷华州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州。 |
| 116 | It's a median in the these six these six races. | 此六种中位数. |
| 117 | Look at this a | 看这个 |
| 118 | generic Senate | 一般参议院 |
| 119 | Republican that is who do you want to control the United States Senate in those median seats? | 共和党就是你想控制 美国参议院的中间席位? |
| 120 | The median seat Republicans still have a lead of six points | 中位数的共和党人仍然领先六分 |
| 121 | It's still a very large lead and Republicans if they hold on to the median seat | 如果坚持中位数的话 仍然是一个很大的领先和共和党人 |
| 122 | They will hold on to the United States Senate and get this, you know | 他们会抓住美国参议院 得到这个 |
| 123 | I mentioned earlier on mentioned earlier on the problems with that Democratic brand that Democratic brand. | 我在前面提到过民主党品牌的问题。 |
| 124 | Look at this | 看这个 |
| 125 | 53% 53% of the voters in the median of these key six races say that the Democratic Party is too liberal | 53%的选民 在中间 这六个关键种族 说民主党太自由 |
| 126 | I'm gonna get a note in a second from my buddy Nick | 我马上要从我的哥们尼克那里得到一张纸条 |
| 127 | I'm very much looking forward to it. | 我非常期待着它。 |
| 128 | You'll have to stay tuned to find out what it is now beyond that | 你必须保持调头 找出它现在是什么 |
| 129 | There's a state I haven't mentioned | 有个州我没提过 |
| 130 | There's a state I haven't mentioned here and that is the great state of Michigan | 我这里没有提到一个州 那是密歇根州的伟大州 |
| 131 | Where Abdul Aseyed has in fact won and become the Democratic nominee take a look at the polling though | 阿卜杜勒·阿赛义德赢得了选举 成为了民主党候选人 |
| 132 | This is a fresh poll that we literally just got. | 这是我们刚刚得到的新民意调查。 |
| 133 | Okay | 还好 |
| 134 | I wasn't even sure what it would be and this is what the poll is my buddy Gordon my producer Gordon over there put this | 我什至不知道它会是什么 而这就是民意测验是我的哥们戈登 我的制片人戈登放在那里 |
| 135 | And literally as we were doing this presentation Michigan Senate will freshly out from Fox News as we're doing this presentation | 密歇根州参议院会从福克斯新闻台 重新推出这个节目 |
| 136 | Look at this Mike Rogers the Republican at 51% | 看这个 共和党人迈克·罗杰斯51% |
| 137 | Abdul Aseyed is at 47% | 阿卜杜勒·阿赛义德是47% |
| 138 | So in a state that has not had a Republican United States Senate since get this | 因此,在一个州 没有一个共和党 美国参议院 得到这一点 |
| 139 | 1994 was the last time that a Republican won a | 1994年是共和党人最后一次赢得 |
| 140 | Senate race in the great state of Michigan | 密歇根州参议院的比赛 |
| 141 | Well, guess what Mike Rogers and a very high quality poll from Fox News one of the best pollsters are out there leads Abdul | 猜猜迈克·罗杰斯 和福克斯新闻的高品质民意测验 最好的民意测验者之一 |
| 142 | Aseyed by four points | 眼睁睁看着四点 |
| 143 | So you can just see how it's very possible with that large Democratic lead on the House ballot in the Senate races | 所以,你可以看到,在参议院的选举中, 民主党在众议院选票上的领先地位 是多么有可能。 |
| 144 | They're not polling in this particular race too hot to trot and we also know they have to overcome the structural | 我们也知道他们必须克服结构问题 |
| 145 | disadvantages of those being some very red states | 那些非常红的州 |
| 146 | That being said that being said up up | 说到上面 |
| 147 | Leading equals good. | 领导等于善. |
| 148 | Oh, I was up. | 哦,我起来。 |
| 149 | Thank you, Nick. | 谢谢你,尼克。 |
| 150 | I was so uncertain | 我当时很不确定 |
| 151 | I was so uncertain, but Nick has got it for me. | 我很不确定,但尼克已经得到了它给我。 |
| 152 | It turns out leading equals good | 原来领先是好事 |
| 153 | Thank you so much for that very kind note Nick. | 非常感谢你的好意,尼克 |
| 154 | My producers really helping me out on this one. | 我的制片人真的帮了我这个忙 |
| 155 | Let's turn to | 让我们转向 |
| 156 | All the scenarios we've gone through the Republican House the Dem Senate less than 1% GOP sweep 15% | 我们通过共和党众议院 德姆参议院 所经历的所有情景 都不到1% GOP 扫荡15% |
| 157 | Democratic House Republican Senate 33% | 民主院共和参议院 33% |
| 158 | Well that only leaves one scenario with a 52% chance of happening | 那么,这只留下一种情景 52%的机会发生 |
| 159 | And that is despite the poor polling for Abdul Aseyed in a state that normally goes Democratic on the Senate level | 尽管阿布杜勒·阿赛义德的民调不佳 通常在参议院一级是民主党 |
| 160 | Can I get a drumroll, please Nick? | 能给我打鼓吗,尼克? |
| 161 | Thank you | 谢谢 |
| 162 | There it is scenario | 就是这样 |
| 163 | Number one is a Democratic sweep at 52% chance | 第一是民主党52%的机会 |
| 164 | I was surprised by this before we started cracking the numbers, but that is why we do it | 在开始破解数字之前,我对此感到惊讶,但这就是我们这样做的原因 |
| 165 | It's the numbers don't blame me the numbers are the numbers now | 数字不怪我 数字是现在的数字 |
| 166 | Why is this why is this the most likely scenario though it is still about a 50-50 between this and the other ones | 为什么这是最可能的情况 尽管它仍然大约是50 -50 |
| 167 | Well, why don't we just take a look at some Senate polls beyond? | 好吧,我们为什么不只是看看 一些参议院的民意调查之外? |
| 168 | Beyond what we're seeing right 2022 Senate 2026 Senate Martins beyond what we're seeing in Michigan | 超越2022年参议院 2026年参议院 马丁斯超越密歇根州 |
| 169 | Well, North Carolina, you're seeing a nine-point | 好吧,北卡罗莱纳州,你看到一个九点 |
| 170 | Democratic lead Maine a three-point Democratic lead Ohio a three-point Democratic lead the average in Texas is a | 民主领袖缅因州三分 民主领袖俄亥俄州三分 |
| 171 | two-point James Tallarico | 詹姆斯·塔拉里科 |
| 172 | Slightly ahead of Ken Paxton and in Iowa even in Iowa, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since what? | 稍早于肯·帕克斯顿,在爱荷华州甚至连爱荷华州,自那以后就再也没有选举过民主党参议员了? |
| 173 | 2008 and Tom Harkin woof. | 2008年和汤姆·哈金·伍夫. |
| 174 | I believe he's the last Democratic senator elected in Iowa | 我相信他是艾奥瓦州最后当选的民主党参议员 |
| 175 | He's literally the last one since I was born because Chuck Grassley has been the senator there since what like 81 so | 他是我出生后最后一个 因为查克・格拉斯利是参议员 从81岁开始 |
| 176 | You put this all together and look at the Senate map. | 你把这些放在一起 看看参议院的地图 |
| 177 | What does that give you? | 这给你带来什么? |
| 178 | Okay Dems would in fact win the Senate with this map if in fact they were able to flip | 好吧,德姆斯实际上会赢得参议院 这个地图,如果他们事实上能够翻转 |
| 179 | Ohio if they were able to flip North Carolina if they were able to flip Texas if they were able to flip | 俄亥俄州 如果他们能翻北卡罗莱纳州 如果他们能翻德克萨斯州 |
| 180 | Iowa if they hold on to their seats that gets you you can see it in your screen right here. | 爱荷华州,如果他们坚持 自己的座位,你可以看到它 在这里的屏幕。 |
| 181 | Look at this | 看这个 |
| 182 | 52 Dems 52 Dems and | 52个标准 |
| 183 | 48 Republicans that's what it would get you and what's so important here is as we were literally breaking it down, right? | 48位共和党人,这就是它会给你带来什么 而这里非常重要的是我们 真正打破它,对不对? |
| 184 | We said hey, maybe we got to go up to Michigan and that becomes red, right? | 我们说好,也许我们得去密歇根 然后变成红色,对吧? |
| 185 | Maybe that becomes red and what would that still leave you? | 也许那会变成红色,你还剩下什么? |
| 186 | Well that would still leave you Democrats | 那还是会留下你民主党人 |
| 187 | With 51 Senate seats. | 拥有51个参议院席位. |
| 188 | So given the polling in the other states, even if Michigan even if Michigan went red | 所以考虑到其他州的民调 即使密歇根州还是红的 |
| 189 | Democrats would still be able to hold on to the | 民主党人仍能坚持 |
| 190 | United States Senate or win control of the United States Senate | 美国参议院或赢得对美国参议院的控制 |
| 191 | Even if Abdul Al Said goes on to Lake Michigan with his electoral prospects now, of course | 即使阿卜杜勒·赛义德现在带着他的选举前景去密歇根湖 当然 |
| 192 | What's overriding all of this right? | 什么是压倒所有的权利? |
| 193 | We talk about the individual races, but what is overriding all of this all this? | 我们谈论的是个人种族, 但是什么是压倒这一切? |
| 194 | I think Nick might be writing another note. | 我想尼克可能正在写另一张纸条 |
| 195 | I'm not sure if he is if he is Nick | 我不知道他是不是尼克 |
| 196 | You'll you'll let it go when it comes | 到时候你就会放手的 |
| 197 | The it's just this what put Donald Trump in the White House. | 就是这个让唐纳德·特朗普进入白宫的原因. |
| 198 | What put him in the White House? | 什么让他进白宫? |
| 199 | What put him in the White House was that they thought he could help voters thought he could help them with their costs of living | 他进入白宫的原因是 他们认为他可以帮助 选民认为他可以帮助他们 支付他们的生活费用 |
| 200 | But look at this the impact of Republican policies on your cost of living just 24% 24% of Americans say help | 但看看这个 共和党政策对你生活费用的影响 只有24%的美国人说帮助 |
| 201 | Look at this hurt number. | 看看这个受伤的号码 |
| 202 | It's 55% on the issue that got Donald Trump a | 这是55%的问题 给唐纳德·特朗普一个 |
| 203 | Second term in the White House a second presidency folks | 白宫第二任总统 |
| 204 | you got to be picking up your phone if you're a | 你要拿起你的手机 如果你是一个 |
| 205 | Republican in Congress and calling Donald Trump up and saying help me help me please Rhonda help me help me please | 国会中的共和党人 打电话给唐纳德·特朗普 说帮帮我 求你了 朗达 帮帮我 |
| 206 | Because you can't win. | 因为你赢不了 |
| 207 | It's very tough to win with this type of environment on the number one issue being inflation and | 在第一问题上, 以这种环境取胜是非常困难的。 |
| 208 | 51% of the American public think that your party has in fact hurt your cost of living | 51%的美国公众 认为你的党实际上 伤害了你的生活费 |
| 209 | That is very very bad news. | 这是一个非常坏的消息。 |
| 210 | And you know what also allows the Democrats to I don't know | 你知道什么也允许民主党来 我不知道 |
| 211 | Be sitting pretty looking cool sitting pretty well | 坐在漂亮 凉爽的坐得很好 |
| 212 | Just look through history just look through history because this says it all | 翻阅历史 翻阅历史 因为这一切 |
| 213 | All right, Donald Trump at this point has a net approval rating under 20 percentage points | 好吧,唐纳德·特朗普 此时的净批准率低于20个百分点 |
| 214 | Right is approval rating somewhere in the 30s as disapprovals in the high 50s low 60s | 正确是30年代的某个地方 被评为50年代的60年代的不赞成 |
| 215 | Depending on what poll you look at and at this point a midterm cycle. | 取决于你所看到的民意测验 以及此时的中期周期 |
| 216 | I went back through the history books because you know what? | 我读历史书是因为你知道吗? |
| 217 | Learning is cool. | 学习是很酷的。 |
| 218 | My friends learning is cool | 我朋友学的很好 |
| 219 | And there are only two other presidents who had a sub 20 net approval besides Trump at this point a midterm cycle | 除了特朗普之外,只有另外两位总统获得20次净批准, |
| 220 | Richard Nixon in | 理查德・尼克松 |
| 221 | 1974 he was literally forced to resign just a few days before now back in | 1974年,他被迫辞职 就在几天前 |
| 222 | 1974 wasn't alive then I heard it was a groovy time and then George W Bush in | 1974年没活下来,我听说时间很长 后来乔治·W·布什在 |
| 223 | 2006 also had a net approval rating under 20 points at this point | 2006年的核准净评分目前低于20分 |
| 224 | Did either one of those two folks did their party hold on or win control of the house or the Senate in? | 那两个人之中有哪一个 坚持了他们的党 或赢得了对房子或参议院的控制? |
| 225 | The Great Congress that is of the United States of America. | 美利坚合众国的伟大国会。 |
| 226 | Did they win either chamber? | 他们赢过两座吗? |
| 227 | No, no, they did not Bush party Bush's party lost both of them Nixon's party | 不,不,他们不是布什的派对 布什的派对失去了他们两个尼克松的派对 |
| 228 | in fact did not hold on or win control either of either of them and that my friend in fact very much leads | 事实上,他们中任何一个都没有坚持或赢得控制权,而且我的朋友实际上也领导着 |
| 229 | Donald Trump at this point as you can see and his Republican Party | 唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump) 此时此刻,你可以看到他的共和党 |
| 230 | looking at a democratic possibility of winning both the United States and the United the United States House and the Senate | 考虑美国和美国赢得美国众议院和参议院的民主可能性 |
| 231 | numbers talk I've been told to flip it this is I really like and | 数字谈话,我被告知翻转它 我真的很喜欢, |
| 232 | Is there a second thing here? | 这里有第二件事吗? |
| 233 | Oh, yeah | 对 |
| 234 | Here it is, and I just listened and you know what else I listened to I listen to your comments | 在这里,我只是听了,你知道什么 我听了,我听你的评论 |
| 235 | So leave one after this video if you like what you saw you have suggestions for the next one. | 所以在这段视频之后留一个 如果你喜欢你看到的,你对下一个视频有建议。 |
| 236 | Peace out | 安静下来 |
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