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巨灾债券可以为无法投保的人提供保险吗？ | 2025.3.2

字幕摘录

时间英文中文
0:02That was a nightmare.那是一场噩梦。
0:04Everything flat.一切处平.
0:06You have breathing, you have rain and you've never seen something like that.你有呼吸,有雨,你从来没有见过类似的东西。
0:11The rich world has decades of emissions which are now contributing to severe weather events富裕世界的排放量已达数十年,现在正在助长严重的天气事件。
0:17and disproportionately affecting developing countries who have contributed very little to global emissions.并且不成比例地影响到发展中国家,它们对全球排放的贡献很小。
0:25As the systems come across a region, they're getting stronger, they're becoming more intense随着系统穿过一个区域, 它们越来越强大,它们越来越强烈
0:30and they're producing more damage.并产生更多的破坏。
0:32As a government, we have to be responsible in terms of ensuring that we have the financial wherewithal作为一个政府,我们必须负责确保我们拥有财政资源
0:39to repair the damage once it's done.修复损坏一旦完成。
0:42It's a massive undertaking.这是一个巨大的任务。
展开字幕全文（162 条）
序号英文中文
1That was a nightmare.那是一场噩梦。
2Everything flat.一切处平.
3You have breathing, you have rain and you've never seen something like that.你有呼吸,有雨,你从来没有见过类似的东西。
4The rich world has decades of emissions which are now contributing to severe weather events富裕世界的排放量已达数十年,现在正在助长严重的天气事件。
5and disproportionately affecting developing countries who have contributed very little to global emissions.并且不成比例地影响到发展中国家,它们对全球排放的贡献很小。
6As the systems come across a region, they're getting stronger, they're becoming more intense随着系统穿过一个区域, 它们越来越强大,它们越来越强烈
7and they're producing more damage.并产生更多的破坏。
8As a government, we have to be responsible in terms of ensuring that we have the financial wherewithal作为一个政府,我们必须负责确保我们拥有财政资源
9to repair the damage once it's done.修复损坏一旦完成。
10It's a massive undertaking.这是一个巨大的任务。
11The costs are increasing exponentially.费用呈指数增长。
12Insurance can't save you from that.保险是救不了你的
13There's a huge, looming question for the world at large, which is how do you protect countries that are facing these disasters?对于整个世界来说,有一个巨大的,迫在眉睫的问题,这就是你如何保护面临这些灾难的国家?
14Major fires burning across Los Angeles.大火在洛杉矶各地燃烧
15Hurricane barrels slamming Jamaica.飓风桶袭击牙买加。
16Devastation in East Africa.东非之灾.
17Weeks of heavy rains triggering massive flooding across the region.数周的暴雨引发了整个区域的大规模洪灾。
18Pretty much every week there's a catastrophe in the headlines.几乎每周头条都有灾难发生
19Wildfires, very high hurricane speed winds.狂火,非常高的飓风速度风.
20These are being stoked by various impacts from climate change.气候变化的各种影响使这些问题变得十分棘手。
21These are new elements that are really raising the risk and increasing the losses.这些新的因素确实增加了风险和损失。
22The risk is unmanageable.风险是无法控制的。
23There's a growing need for companies, but also for people who own homes,越来越需要公司 但也需要拥有房子的人
24to try and absorb these losses in a way that doesn't destroy anyone's financial situation.尝试吸收这些损失的方式 不破坏任何人的财政状况。
25And catastrophe bonds are one such tool.灾难联系是其中一种工具。
26Cath bonds were invented so that they could find a way to pass on the risk of these rare, crazy, black swan events卡斯债券被发明出来 这样他们就可以找到一个方法 传递这些罕见的,疯狂的,黑色的天鹅事件的风险
27onto a different group of people who are willing to take the risk.面对不同的人 他们愿意冒险。
28In this case, it's Wall Street.在这种情况下,是华尔街.
29Most of the cath bonds that are out there have to do with US risk, particularly California earthquakes and Florida hurricanes.大部分的碳酸盐债券 都与美国的风险有关 特别是加州地震和佛罗里达飓风
30But the World Bank has decided that this could be a way to provide some kind of insurance但世界银行已经决定 这可能是提供某种保险的方式
31for hurricanes and other natural disasters in the poorer parts of the world.在世界较贫穷地区发生的飓风和其他自然灾害。
32They've arranged over the last many years for some of these countries to issue their own cath bonds在过去几年里,他们安排了 其中一些国家发行自己的Cath债券
33and pass on the risk of that potential event to Wall Street investors.并且将可能发生的事件的风险传给华尔街的投资者。
34It's perfectly straightforward for an insurance company in Florida to issue a cath bond.佛罗里达的一家保险公司 发行Cath债券是完全直接的
35They know what the risk is.他们知道什么是风险。
36They know what the infrastructure is that could be damaged if a hurricane were to hit.他们知道,如果飓风来袭,基础设施会受损。
37But in a poor country like, say, Jamaica, there isn't that much infrastructure.但是在像牙买加这样的贫穷国家, 没有那么多的基础设施。
38And also, they just don't have a history of a lot of insurance and claims, just like you have in a place like Florida.而且,他们只是没有 很多保险和索赔的历史, 就像你在佛罗里达这样的地方。
39So without a big insurance industry, how are you going to protect a country like Jamaica against a big cataclysmic hurricane?所以如果没有大保险行业,你将如何保护牙买加这样的国家免受一场大灾难性飓风的侵袭?
40As a country, we are situated in the hurricane belt.作为一个国家,我们位于飓风带。
41And when the hurricane hits us, it can hit us very hard and damages roads, infrastructure.当飓风袭击我们时,它会非常猛烈地袭击我们,破坏道路,基础设施.
42It takes us out for a while.它带我们出去一段时间。
43We have to prepare.我们必须做好准备。
44For us in Jamaica, we implemented a catastrophe bond in 2021 for a three-year period.对我们牙买加来说,我们在2021年实施了为期三年的灾难债券。
45And then we renegotiated another one that's in effect right now.然后我们又重新谈判了另一个现在生效的。
46A catastrophe bond will continue to form part of our disaster management financing efforts.灾难债券将继续构成我们灾害管理筹资努力的一部分。
47The day the Met Office tells us that a very severe hurricane is on the way towards us,大都会办公室告诉我们 一场非常严重的飓风即将来临
48it's too late to do that kind of planning.做那种计划太晚了
49So you have to do the planning well ahead of the eventuality of a catastrophe.因此,你必须在灾难发生之前做好规划。
50I was a child during Hurricane Gilbert.在飓风吉尔伯特期间我还是个孩子.
51I could never forget there was a lady who lived beside me and her roof just fell off.我永远忘不了身边有位女士 她的屋顶掉下来了
52The roof just got up and went.屋顶刚起来就走了
53And as a child, I was always interested to know why did the wind blow and why the roof of the lady had to come off the house.小时候,我一直很想知道为什么风吹起,为什么女士的屋顶必须从屋里下来.
54And as I got older, I recognized that meteorology, weather, was the science that allowed us to know about hurricanes.随着年龄的增长,我意识到 气象学,气象学, 是能够让我们了解飓风的科学。
55Across the island, we have a series of automatic weather stations and some manual stations that measure the different elements of weather.在全岛,我们有一系列自动气象站和一些人工气象站来测量天气的不同要素.
56We have the 10-meter pole.我们有10米长的柱子
57And on this tower, we have all the instruments and sensors that sample the atmosphere.在这个塔上,我们拥有所有仪器和传感器 来取样大气层。
58So at the top, we have the wind sensors.因此,在顶部,我们有风感应器。
59And the wind sensors measure the wind speed and wind direction.而风力传感器则测量风速和风向.
60We're also a station where we release an upper-air balloon that samples the environment from the surface all the way up to about 200 millibars.我们也是一个站,我们放出一个上层气球, 从表面一直到200毫巴的样本。
61So what we do know, what is our reality, is that the systems, especially hurricanes, that move across our region, they're stronger, they're more intense, they're developing more rapidly.因此,我们知道,我们的现实是, 系统,特别是飓风, 移动到我们地区,它们更强大,更密集,发展更快。
62And as such, we are concerned about these systems and how they impact us in terms of our livelihoods, damage to property and the loss of life.因此,我们对这些制度及其如何影响我们的生计、财产破坏和生命损失感到关切。
63When Hurricane Beryl came, one of the areas that was severely impacted was a community called Rocky Point in Clarendon.飓风贝里尔来袭时,受到严重影响的一个地区是克拉伦登的一个名为"洛基点"的社区.
64It's a fishing community, among other things, but a lot of homes are close to the ocean.除其他外,它是一个捕鱼社区,但很多家都离海洋很近.
65And that obviously took a big hit.这显然打击很大。
66I lived here 13 years, and I never had a hurricane when I lived around here.我住在这里13年, 我从来没有有飓风 当我住在这里。
67Everything flat, everything.一切平稳,一切.
68The blown-down house after the storm.暴风雨后被炸毁的房子.
69Say, wow, Jesus.说,哇,耶稣。
70Some get help, but some don't get no help.有的去找帮助,但有的却得不到帮助.
71They have to rebuild over back again.他们必须重新重建
72I don't get any help from the government.我没有得到政府的任何帮助。
73Not even a penny.一分钱都没有
74Traditional insurance would say after the damage, we have to come assess, and that takes time.传统的保险会说,在损害发生后,我们必须进行评估,这需要时间。
75And then you may or may not get a payout where the catastrophe bond comes in.然后,你可能得到 或可能得不到一个支付 当灾难债券进来。
76It's a financial instrument that before the disaster happens, it describes certain parameters.这是一种金融工具,在灾难发生之前,它描述了某些参数.
77And if those parameters play out, then there is a payout of that bond.如果这些参数起作用了,那就能得到保证金。
78The payout is almost immediate.报酬几乎是立即的。
79Considering the intensity of it and the devastation that it caused, we were hoping for a payout.考虑到其强度和所造成的破坏,我们希望得到回报。
80We were hoping that it would have met the criteria.我们希望它能够达到标准。
81Burial did not meet the intensity that was described in the policy, and that's why there wasn't a payout.埋葬没有达到政策中描述的强度,因此没有支付.
82Coming up with a cap bond is an incredibly complicated process.即将推出的上限债券是一个极其复杂的过程。
83It's a heady mixture of science and historical data about storms and various formulae and also simulations of synthetic storms.它是关于风暴和各种公式的科学和历史数据以及合成风暴的模拟的一种头部混合.
84The first step is to actually structure the bond.第一步是实际构建债券.
85In the case of Jamaica, this meant dividing the country into 19 different cells.就牙买加而言,这意味着将该国分为19个不同的牢房。
86Each cell had a different threshold based on the historical patterns for when a cap bond would get triggered,每个细胞都有一个不同的阈值 基于历史规律 对于何时会触发封顶债券,
87depending on the speed of the hurricane as it entered or left that particular cell.取决于飓风进入或离开该特定细胞时的速度。
88The modeling for the Jamaica cap bond was done by a company called Verus.牙买加帽债券的模型制作由一家叫Verus的公司完成.
89They have a team of people who are familiar with the science of hurricanes,他们有一群熟悉飓风科学的人
90and they have the ability to create synthetic storms in a computer that can capture some of the risk of potential events that could occur.它们有能力在计算机中制造合成风暴 能够捕捉到可能发生的一些潜在事件的风险
91Using that information, they can calculate what the risk of losses for that cap bond,利用这些信息,他们可以计算出 最高保证金的损失风险,
92and then the insurance company can use that information to price the bond accordingly so that investors are attracted to it.然后,保险公司可以利用这一信息对债券进行相应的定价,从而吸引投资者。
93What a catastrophe model is trying to answer is really three fundamental questions.一个灾难模式试图回答的其实是三个基本问题。
94Where do these catastrophes occur?这些灾难在哪里发生?
95How often would they occur?它们多久发生一次?
96And if they occur, what are the financial impacts from them?如果发生这种情况,它们将产生什么财政影响?
97We have models covering more than 110 countries.我们有涵盖110多个国家的模式。
98In the case of catastrophes, there's nothing theoretical that we can compute with pure mathematics.在灾难的情况下,我们无法用纯数学来计算理论.
99Because it's so complicated, we have to go through this elaborate process of rolling the hurricane dice 10,000 times.因为它是如此复杂,我们必须经历这个精心精心策划的过程,将飓风骰子滚动1万次.
100And now we compute, convert them into losses, and now we can do the counting.现在我们计算,把它们转换成损失, 现在我们可以进行计数。
101How many times did it exceed 50 billion?多少次超过五百亿?
102How many times did it exceed 100 billion?多少次超过1000亿?
103It's literally billions of calculations are happening behind the scenes.数以亿计的计算正在幕后进行。
104A catastrophe bond is essentially an insurance instrument where risk is being exchanged between two parties.灾难保证金基本上是双方交换风险的保险工具。
105What our models are really trying to do is to kind of be the fair arbiter between these two parties我们的模型真正想要做的是 成为这两个当事方之间的公平仲裁者
106to provide a view of risk and quantification of the risk so that now these two parties can get together说明风险和风险的量化,以便现在这两个当事方能够聚集在一起;
107and comfortably come to an agreement and what is the right price to exchange that risk.和什么是正确的价格来交换这种风险。
108There is a sense of injustice if you are the country that didn't get a payout when a big disaster hit.如果你是在大灾难中没有得到回报的国家,那就有一种不公正的感觉。
109But at the same time, you're seeing that people who bought your cap bond, investors in Wall Street and elsewhere,但与此同时,你看到那些买下你的盖帽债券的人 华尔街和其他地方的投资者
110they're making returns that are in the double digits.他们的回报是两位数
111In 2023, the most successful, best performing hedge fund strategy was to invest in cap bonds.2023年,最成功,表现最好的对冲基金战略是投资上限债券.
112It gave you 20% returns.它给了你20%的回报。
113In 2024, the returns were 17%.2024年,回报率为17%.
114Those are very high paybacks for a fixed income instrument.这些是固定收入工具的高回报。
115It's not usual that bonds pay out quite like that.债券不是通常那样还的
116I think a lot of critics would say that the risk-reward curve is in favor of investors today.我认为很多批评家会说风险回报曲线有利于今天的投资者.
117The reason is that they are demanding that the threshold at which the cap bond gets triggered,原因是他们要求 启动上限债券的门槛,
118which means they lose money, keeps rising.这意味着他们输了钱,不断上升。
119So it takes a much bigger disaster.所以它需要更大的灾难。
120It takes a much larger loss for the cap bond investor to actually shell out and pay for the claims.上限债券投资人要付出更大的损失,才能实际支付索赔。
121Where there is uncertainty and where this risk is increasing,如果存在不确定性,而且这种风险正在增加,
122exactly like climate change and some of the new health risks,就像气候变化和一些新的健康风险,
123the investor is going to say, well, I don't know what's happening with the underlying.投资人会说,嗯,我不知道 发生了什么事与基础。
124The underlying is changing, and therefore I need to build in a sort of risk buffer for the uncertainty of this event.其基础正在改变,因此,我需要建立某种风险缓冲,以应对这一事件的不确定性。
125In a world of uncertainty, the cap bond is going to favor the investor more.在一个充满不确定性的世界中,上限债券将更有利于投资者。
126When you're dealing with a catastrophe that is a big event that happens in a very infrequent space of time,当你面对一场灾难的时候 这场灾难是发生在一个非常少的时间空间里
127then catastrophe insurance, catastrophe bonds, these are good things because you need to spread out the payments.灾难保险,灾难债券,这些都是好事 因为你需要分散支付。
128The challenge is climate, because climate is not a one event every 10 years.挑战在于气候,因为气候并不是每十年发生一次。
129Imagine you have car accidents now instead of once every 10 years.想象一下你现在有车祸 而不是每十年一次
130It's now once a year and then it becomes twice a year and then three times a year.现在每年一次,然后每年变成两次,然后每年三次.
131The benefits of spreading out the payments no longer helps too much.分配付款的好处不再有太大帮助。
132And that's why some countries are finding it a problem.这就是为什么一些国家认为这是一个问题。
133These bonds that they issued before are just not paying out as much as they hoped for,他们之前发行的这些债券 并没有如他们所希望的那样兑现
134even though they're paying in considerable sums of money.即使他们付出了大笔金钱。
135So what can countries in the developing world do to shore up their resources,因此,发展中国家可以做些什么来巩固其资源,
136to increase their resilience when large disasters strike?* 在发生大灾难时提高他们的复原能力?
137The most appropriate solution, a lot of people say, is to find ways to finance better infrastructure,很多人说,最合适的解决方案是 找到更好的基础设施融资方式
138better roads, better bridges, and ensure that sea walls are built in areas where the sea level is rising改善道路、改善桥梁,并确保在海平面上升的地区建造海墙
139and threatening to flood island nations.威胁着岛屿国家
140Now there are other forms of insurance that countries can use beyond cap bonds.现在有其他形式的保险,各国可以使用超过上限债券.
141For example, the Inter-American Development Bank is enthusiastic about climate resilient disaster clauses.例如,美洲开发银行热衷于气候抗灾条款。
142This is a way for a country to postpone debt payments after a disaster hits,这是一国在灾难发生后 推迟偿还债务的方法
143so that it has time to recover financially.因此,它有时间进行财政恢复。
144Imagine if every single debt instrument, all your mortgages, all of your car loans,想象一下,如果每个债务工具, 所有你的抵押贷款, 所有你的汽车贷款,
145all had climate resilient disaster clauses in them, and that whenever a disaster happens,他们都有抗御气候灾害的条款, 每当发生灾害,
146you could suspend the payments and pay it back so you could reshuffle the payments你可以暂停支付 并偿还它 这样你就可以重组支付
147to pay things when you are able to and to be released from paying them when you're least able to.支付东西 当你有能力, 和被解脱 在你最不能支付。
148That would make the whole financial system more adaptive, more absorbing for these big risks,这将使整个金融系统更适应性强,更能吸收这些巨大风险,
149more flexible, more shock absorbing, and that was your objective, and that's what we need to do.更灵活,更能吸收冲击, 这就是你的目标, 这就是我们需要做的。
150Unfortunately, cap bonds don't do that.不幸的是,盖帽债券不这样做。
151The World Bank has issued about 15 weather-related catastrophe bonds since 2009.自2009年以来,世界银行发行了约15份与天气有关的灾难债券。
152There is about $1.5 billion worth of World Bank cap bonds outstanding in the market right now,价值约15亿美元的世界银行封顶债券 现在在市场上,
153but the bank has high ambitions.但银行有很高的野心。
154It wants to issue another $3.5 billion worth of cap bonds over the next four years.它希望在未来四年再发行价值35亿美元的上限债券.
155Cap bond issuance in 2024 hit a record level.2024年卡普债券的发行达到了创纪录的水平.
156There's a reason for that.其有因缘.
157That's because the scale, size, intensity, and losses from these natural catastrophes around the world,这是因为规模、规模、强度 以及世界各地自然灾害造成的损失
158especially in the U.S., are really increasing at a very high rate,尤其是在美国, 正在以非常高的速度增长,
159and so the insurance industry, homeowners, governments all need to figure out a way to ward off this problem,保险业 房东 政府都需要想办法 避免这个问题
160otherwise the losses will only keep getting out of hand.否则损失只会不断失控
161And so the insurance industry, homeowners, governments all need to figure out a way to ward off this problem,所以保险业 房主 政府都需要想办法 避免这个问题
162otherwise the losses will only keep getting out of hand.否则损失只会不断失控
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