美国中期选举投票 三大变量牵动两院控制权 | 2026.11
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | It's finally here, election day. | 终于到了选举日 |
| 0:03 | No more ads, no more polls. | 没有更多的广告, 没有更多的民意调查。 |
| 0:05 | It's just the voters going out to vote. | 只是选民要出去投票 |
| 0:07 | More than a hundred million Americans are going to determine control of the House and the Senate for the final two years of Trump's presidency. | 超过1亿美国人将在特朗普任总统的最后两年决定对众议院和参议院的控制. |
| 0:16 | And this is not just any midterm. | 这不仅仅是一个中期。 |
| 0:18 | This will create the bookend on the Trump political dynasty. | 这将在特朗普政治王朝上建立书本. |
| 0:23 | Three things that I'm watching closely. | 三事我当观察. |
| 0:25 | Democratic unity, Republican turnout, and whether incumbents in a number of states can hold on against a populist wave | 民主团结,共和党的投票率,以及一些州的现任者能否坚持反对民粹主义浪潮 |
| 0:32 | that seems to be crashing across the country. | 这似乎正在全国崩溃。 |
| 0:35 | Democrats just need to pick up a few seats in the House to turn over control, and they seem poised to do that. | 民主党人只需要在众议院拿起几个席位来推翻控制权,他们似乎准备这样做. |
展开字幕全文（54 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | It's finally here, election day. | 终于到了选举日 |
| 2 | No more ads, no more polls. | 没有更多的广告, 没有更多的民意调查。 |
| 3 | It's just the voters going out to vote. | 只是选民要出去投票 |
| 4 | More than a hundred million Americans are going to determine control of the House and the Senate for the final two years of Trump's presidency. | 超过1亿美国人将在特朗普任总统的最后两年决定对众议院和参议院的控制. |
| 5 | And this is not just any midterm. | 这不仅仅是一个中期。 |
| 6 | This will create the bookend on the Trump political dynasty. | 这将在特朗普政治王朝上建立书本. |
| 7 | Three things that I'm watching closely. | 三事我当观察. |
| 8 | Democratic unity, Republican turnout, and whether incumbents in a number of states can hold on against a populist wave | 民主团结,共和党的投票率,以及一些州的现任者能否坚持反对民粹主义浪潮 |
| 9 | that seems to be crashing across the country. | 这似乎正在全国崩溃。 |
| 10 | Democrats just need to pick up a few seats in the House to turn over control, and they seem poised to do that. | 民主党人只需要在众议院拿起几个席位来推翻控制权,他们似乎准备这样做. |
| 11 | Although anything can happen on election day. | 虽然选举日什么都可能发生. |
| 12 | In the Senate, their odds are harder. | 在参议院,他们的可能性更大。 |
| 13 | Right now, the Republicans have a 53-47 majority. | 现在,共和党拥有53-47的多数. |
| 14 | So Democrats need to pick off four seats while not losing any. | 因此民主党人在不失去任何席位的同时需要摘下四个席位. |
| 15 | Now, they can do that according to the polls if they really run the table, | 现在,他们可以做到这一点 根据民调 如果他们真的运行的桌子, |
| 16 | but it's going to be hard, especially when Republicans are spending a tremendous amount of money to defend their turf. | 特别是当共和党人花巨资 保卫他们的地盘的时候 |
| 17 | Democrats have not exactly sprinted through the finish line of this midterm election. | 民主党人并未完全通过本次中期选举的终点线冲刺. |
| 18 | They've got a big mess in Alaska, where there's state and federal investigators looking into the campaign of Democrat Mary Paltola. | 他们的阿拉斯加一团糟,那里有州和联邦调查员调查民主党人玛丽·帕尔托拉的竞选活动. |
| 19 | Finally, over the weekend, a final weekend before voting, Democrats were at each other's throats in Michigan, | 最后,在周末,投票前的最后周末,民主党人在密歇根州彼此的喉咙, |
| 20 | with Hailey Stevens bucking Abdul El-Sayed to endorse the Republican candidate Mike Rogers. | 和海莉史蒂文斯一起打击阿卜杜勒·赛义德 支持共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯 |
| 21 | But this is about Michigan and just one vote that I am taking. | 但这是关于密歇根的,我只投一票。 |
| 22 | Now, what this means for Michigan, who knows, that vote was going to be close no matter what. | 这对密歇根州意味着什么, 谁知道, 投票会是接近 不管是什么。 |
| 23 | But with Democrats ripping each other apart in Michigan, the question is, is that going to be just contained in Michigan, | 但随着民主党在密歇根州互相撕裂, 问题是,只是要控制在密歇根, |
| 24 | or is this disunity going to spread to a number of other races where Democrats can't really afford to lose any votes? | 还是这种不统一性会蔓延到民主党人无法真正失去任何选票的其他一些种族? |
| 25 | The early voting so far seems to be favoring Democrats. | 早期的投票到目前为止似乎有利于民主党人. |
| 26 | They're voting in large numbers and with a lot of energy. | 他们大量投票,精力充沛. |
| 27 | But that doesn't mean Republicans can't make up the vote on Tuesday. | 但这并不意味着共和党人不能在星期二补票. |
| 28 | There are a number of states, particularly in the Senate, where the polls show a complete coin toss. | 有一些州,特别是在参议院,民意测验显示有完整的硬币投币. |
| 29 | And Republican turnout on Election Day could make the difference. | 而共和党在选举日的投票率可以有所改变. |
| 30 | But if Republicans don't turn out to vote on Tuesday, they either stay home because of disapproval of the war in Iran, | 但如果共和党人星期二不投票 他们要么留在家里 因为反对伊朗战争 |
| 31 | or they don't like the candidates in their states, that can make it much easier for Democrats to pick up a number of seats, | 或者他们不喜欢他们的州里的候选人, 这样可以让民主党人更容易 获得一些席位, |
| 32 | both in the House and the Senate, that'll make it much easier for them to serve as a check on President Trump in his final two years in office. | 无论是众议院还是参议院,这样他们就能更容易地在特朗普总统任期的最后两年中担任他的总统. |
| 33 | Finally, let's watch the incumbents on Tuesday night. | 最后,让我们在星期二晚上看现任者。 |
| 34 | We've got Darlene Graham, the Republican in South Carolina. | 我们抓到了南卡罗莱纳州的共和党人达琳·格雷厄姆 |
| 35 | She's got a really close race. | 她有一个非常接近的比赛。 |
| 36 | Susan Collins in Maine. | 缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯. |
| 37 | She never loses, but she's in the fight of her life. | 她从不输,但她正在她生命的战斗中. |
| 38 | And finally, the last poll that will close at 1 a.m. in Alaska, Senator Dan Sullivan, is trying to fend off Democrat Mary Paltola. | 最后,最后的民意测验将在阿拉斯加凌晨1点结束,参议员丹·沙利文试图抵御民主党人玛丽·帕尔托拉. |
| 39 | Those races are all going to be closed. | 这些比赛都要结束了 |
| 40 | My final advice is to be patient. | 我最后的建议是耐心点 |
| 41 | There are dozens of races in the House and the Senate that we might not know on Tuesday night. | 众议院和参议院有几十场比赛 我们星期二晚上可能不知道 |
| 42 | California counts slow. | 加州计算慢。 |
| 43 | Michigan counts slow. | 密歇根州计算慢。 |
| 44 | Alaska doesn't even close till 1 a.m. on Wednesday. | 阿拉斯加直到星期三凌晨1点才关闭. |
| 45 | So it might be some time, Wednesday or even beyond, until we really know who controls the House and the Senate. | 因此,也许需要一些时间, 星期三甚至以后, 直到我们真正知道谁控制了众议院和参议院。 |
| 46 | At the same time, these votes are incredibly consequential. | 与此同时,这些投票结果令人难以置信。 |
| 47 | This is not just any midterm, as I said. | 正如我所说,这不仅仅是一个中期。 |
| 48 | So the results are going to matter. | 所以结果会很重要。 |
| 49 | The impact is going to matter. | 影响将很重要。 |
| 50 | Congressmen and senators are going to change their behavior after this because they're going to see where the American people are. | 众议员和参议员会在这之后改变他们的行为,因为他们要看看美国人民在哪里. |
| 51 | And the question is going to be what happens at the White House next? | 问题是接下来白宫会怎样? |
| 52 | What happens in Congress next? | 接下来国会会怎样? |
| 53 | What happens around the country as people try to decide what they want the next era of politics to look like? | 当人们试图决定他们想要下一个政治时代是什么样子时, |
| 54 | Tingo. | 丁果(原变种). |
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