华尔街大佬对谈：年轻人最需要的技能是什么 | 2026.6.
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | You won't remember this, but when we first met, I said to you, | 你不记得了,但当我们第一次见面时,我跟你说, |
| 0:04 | were you one of those kids, you know, we picture in their bedroom, | 你是那些孩子之一, 你知道,我们想象 在他们的卧室, |
| 0:08 | gaming, doing all these things that's sort of like, | 游戏,做所有这些事情 有点像, |
| 0:10 | you would think are stereotypical of the guy that you've become. | 你会认为你已经变成的那个人是刻板印象 |
| 0:13 | And you said, you go, no, I was a dirtbag. | 你说,你去,不,我是一个混蛋。 |
| 0:16 | Yeah, I'm just a regular guy who likes to play games. | 我只是个喜欢玩游戏的普通人 |
| 0:19 | And I got hooked on the investment game, | 我迷上了投资游戏, |
| 0:21 | and I learned to look on principles of cause-effect relationships, | 我学会了研究因果关系的原则, |
| 0:25 | computerize it, and so on. | 电脑化,等等 |
| 0:26 | But I'm just still a little bit of a regular dirtbag. | 但我还是有点普通的混蛋 |
展开字幕全文（566 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | You won't remember this, but when we first met, I said to you, | 你不记得了,但当我们第一次见面时,我跟你说, |
| 2 | were you one of those kids, you know, we picture in their bedroom, | 你是那些孩子之一, 你知道,我们想象 在他们的卧室, |
| 3 | gaming, doing all these things that's sort of like, | 游戏,做所有这些事情 有点像, |
| 4 | you would think are stereotypical of the guy that you've become. | 你会认为你已经变成的那个人是刻板印象 |
| 5 | And you said, you go, no, I was a dirtbag. | 你说,你去,不,我是一个混蛋。 |
| 6 | Yeah, I'm just a regular guy who likes to play games. | 我只是个喜欢玩游戏的普通人 |
| 7 | And I got hooked on the investment game, | 我迷上了投资游戏, |
| 8 | and I learned to look on principles of cause-effect relationships, | 我学会了研究因果关系的原则, |
| 9 | computerize it, and so on. | 电脑化,等等 |
| 10 | But I'm just still a little bit of a regular dirtbag. | 但我还是有点普通的混蛋 |
| 11 | I'm Harvey Schwartz, CEO of the Carlisle Group. | 我是哈维·施瓦兹 卡莱尔集团的首席执行官 |
| 12 | I'm Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, | 我是雷·达里奥 布里奇沃特的创始人 |
| 13 | and now running my family office, the Dalio Family Office. | 现在管理我的家庭办公室,大柳家庭办公室。 |
| 14 | As we start off here, you and I were both terrible students. | 当我们从这里开始,你和我都是可怕的学生。 |
| 15 | Well, if you were terrible, I was way worse than that. | 好吧,如果你是可怕的, 我比这更糟。 |
| 16 | But like, I think, what were you like, you were below average student. | 但是,我想,你是什么样子的, 你低于普通学生。 |
| 17 | I really didn't even, oh, C- was aspirational for me. | 我甚至没有,哦,C... 对我来说是渴望的。 |
| 18 | I got into CW Post College on probation. | 我进入CW邮局学院试用期 |
| 19 | I didn't get into Rutgers the first time. | 我第一次没进入拉特格斯 |
| 20 | Somebody had to help me get in. | 得有人帮我进去 |
| 21 | My situation was born, I think, at a pretty extraordinary time. | 我认为,我的处境是在非常特殊的时刻诞生的。 |
| 22 | 1964, white, male, in the United States, | 1964年,美国白人,男, |
| 23 | a period where clearly some really difficult things happened in the world since 1964, | 1964年以来 世界上发生了一些非常困难的事情 |
| 24 | but for the most part, an incredibly friendly environment. | 但大部分情况下,一个非常友好的环境。 |
| 25 | For me, you know, my challenge was both of my parents suffered very severe mental illness. | 对我来说,你知道,我的挑战 是我的两个父母 遭受非常严重的精神疾病。 |
| 26 | My mother suffered what we would now call bipolar disorder, | 我妈妈遭受了我们现在所说的两极症 |
| 27 | and my father suffered very severe schizophrenia. | 我父亲患有严重的精神分裂症 |
| 28 | And at the time, the treatments, the drugs, quite bad, | 而当时,治疗,药物,相当糟糕, |
| 29 | and the stigma back then created a very, very difficult environment. | 当时的耻辱 创造了一个非常非常困难的环境 |
| 30 | My mother died when I was quite young. | 我妈妈在我很小的时候就死了 |
| 31 | I was 14, I think. | 我14岁,我想。 |
| 32 | Your mom, how old were you, 19, 18? | 你妈妈,你多大了,19,18岁? |
| 33 | How old were you? | 你几岁? |
| 34 | 18. | 18岁 |
| 35 | And that was a big turning point. | 这是一个很大的转折点。 |
| 36 | Notwithstanding her challenges, I kind of really went off the rails in high school. | 尽管她有挑战性 但我在高中时还是有点失控 |
| 37 | I was a freshman in high school. | 我高中时是新生 |
| 38 | She passed away, and I was a pretty feral kid, I guess is the best language. | 她过世了,我是一个很疯狂的孩子, 我猜是最好的语言。 |
| 39 | It was not a good environment for me and my dad. | 这对我和我爸来说不是一个好环境。 |
| 40 | Didn't exactly build a lot of self-esteem. | 并没有建立很多自尊心。 |
| 41 | I was the fattest kid, for lack of a better word, in most of my young years. | 我是最胖的孩子,因为没有 一个更好的词, 在我的大部分年轻的时候。 |
| 42 | I sort of ate all my emotions. | 我有点吃了所有的情绪。 |
| 43 | And so by the time I finished high school, I would say I lacked confidence | 所以当我读完高中时 我会说我缺乏自信 |
| 44 | and hadn't achieved a lot, which was quite difficult. | 并且没有取得很多成就, 这相当困难。 |
| 45 | And that's probably the fundamentals that start to build you, you know? | 这可能是基础 开始建设你,你知道吗? |
| 46 | Yeah, for sure, like you. | 是啊,当然,像你一样。 |
| 47 | I mean, didn't you, well, you started out as a caddie, right? | 我的意思是,是不是你,嗯, 你一开始是一个球童,对不对? |
| 48 | Well, what happened is I hated high school, right? | 我恨高中,对吧? |
| 49 | Because it's sort of teachers get in front of the room and they say, | 因为老师在房间前说 |
| 50 | remember these things. | 记住这些 |
| 51 | I have a pretty lousy rope memory, and besides, I wasn't interested. | 我有一个相当糟糕的绳子记忆, 而且,我不感兴趣。 |
| 52 | But what I did do is I did odd jobs when I was a kid. | 但我在小时候做了一些零工 |
| 53 | I caddied, was one of them. | 我承认,是其中之一。 |
| 54 | And when I would walk around the golf course caddying for people, | 当我在高尔夫球场到处转转时 |
| 55 | the stock market was hot at the time, so I would talk about stocks with them. | 当时股市很热 所以我要和他们谈谈股票 |
| 56 | I took my caddying money and I put it into the stock market. | 我拿了些小钱 投进股票市场 |
| 57 | First stock I bought was the only company I ever heard of | 我买的首家股票是我听过的 |
| 58 | that was selling for less than $5 a share. | 卖不到5美元一股。 |
| 59 | And my logic was I could buy more shares, so if it went up, I'd make more money, | 我的逻辑是,我可以买更多的股份, 所以如果它上升,我会赚更多的钱, |
| 60 | which was dumb. | 这太蠢了 |
| 61 | And a company that I bought was about to go bankrupt, | 我买的一家公司即将破产 |
| 62 | but some other company acquired it. | 但其他公司收购了它。 |
| 63 | It tripled in value and I got hooked. | 价值翻了三倍,我就上瘾了 |
| 64 | And then when I went to college that I was lucky to get in on probation, | 然后当我上大学时 我幸运地进入缓刑期 |
| 65 | I liked college, okay, because I could pick the courses I want. | 我喜欢上大学 因为我可以选我想要的课程 |
| 66 | I liked the whole routine and I did well in college. | 我喜欢整件事,大学时表现很好 |
| 67 | But we all had our experiences. | 但我们都有我们的经验。 |
| 68 | It's funny, so both my parents were very, very well-educated | 很有趣,所以我父母都受过很好的教育 |
| 69 | at a time when that was less common. | 那时这不太常见。 |
| 70 | My father was a PhD, actually worked for Bell Labs. | 我父亲是博士,实际上在贝尔实验室工作。 |
| 71 | Bell Labs, you may know, was like... | 贝尔实验室,你知道,就像... |
| 72 | Of course. | 当然 |
| 73 | ...considered like the... | ...被认为是... |
| 74 | Like when I talk to people in... | 就像我和别人谈话时... |
| 75 | The ultimate. | 终极. |
| 76 | Correct. | 没错 |
| 77 | And I say, oh, my dad worked at Bell Labs. | 我爸爸在贝尔实验室工作 |
| 78 | They're like, wow, Bell Labs. | 他们就像,哇,贝尔实验室。 |
| 79 | Like for people that know it, my mother had a master's in education. | 对知道的人来说 我母亲有教育硕士学位 |
| 80 | So I always had a great respect for education because it was just kind of the | 所以我一直非常尊重教育 因为它只是一种 |
| 81 | environment I grew up in. | 我成长的环境。 |
| 82 | I just was failing at everything. | 我只是在一切失败。 |
| 83 | And so when I eventually applied to Rutgers and I got denied and a woman | 所以当我最终申请到拉特格斯, 我被拒绝和一个女人 |
| 84 | named Linda who I knew called up the university, complained, | 名叫琳达,我知道他 打电话给大学,抱怨, |
| 85 | and I think she complained so loudly, she was an alumni, that they said, | 我觉得她抱怨得这么大声, 她是一个校友, 他们说, |
| 86 | hey, just please have the kid write a letter about... | 嘿,请让孩子 写一封信关于... |
| 87 | And I say, well, why? | 我说,为什么? |
| 88 | He was such a screw-up in high school. | 他高中时真是一团糟 |
| 89 | And they interviewed me. | 他们采访了我。 |
| 90 | Rutgers让我进来 | |
| 91 | And when I went to those first classes, I had a lot of anxiety about, | 当我去那些头等舱时, 我有很多焦虑, |
| 92 | can I even do this? | 我甚至可以做到这一点? |
| 93 | And that is the moment that I learned that I liked to learn. | 这就是我学会我喜欢学习的时刻。 |
| 94 | I really didn't realize that up until then. | 那时我才意识到 |
| 95 | You know, high school had been kind of like a bunch of emotional battles | 你知道,高中 曾经有点像 一堆情感战斗 |
| 96 | and feeling uncomfortable with myself and insecure and a lot of bullying. | 感觉不舒服 对自己和不安全 和很多欺负。 |
| 97 | And that was a real turning point for me. | 这对我来说是一个真正的转折点。 |
| 98 | So I owe Rutgers and Linda an extraordinary debt. | 所以我欠拉特格斯和琳达一笔特别大的债务 |
| 99 | One of the joys that I've had is on the other side of this as an employer | 作为雇主,我所享受的快乐之一 是在另一边 |
| 100 | and I get to hire people is that I get to hire the best of the best out of | 我雇人就是 雇最好的 |
| 101 | whatever schools I want, the best and the brightest. | 不论学校我想要什么,最好的和最聪明的。 |
| 102 | And what I find quite often is the case is that that student who did really, | 我经常发现的是 那个学生真的 |
| 103 | really well in remembering all the things that they've learned and so on | 记得他们学到的一切 |
| 104 | and hadn't gone through anything like that may not be the most inventive, | 没有经历过这样的事情 可能不是最有创意的 |
| 105 | may not be the most determined or something. | 也许不是最坚定的什么的。 |
| 106 | Yeah, I think that's right. | 是的,我想这是正确的。 |
| 107 | In this journey of life, okay, there are these things. | 在这个生命的旅程中,有这些东西。 |
| 108 | And it's almost a little bit like sperm to the egg, you know. | 几乎有点像卵上的精子 |
| 109 | It's one of those things where there's a lot of talent out there. | 外道有大才之类. |
| 110 | There's a lot of people who are talented in the circumstances | 有很多人在这种情况下才华横溢 |
| 111 | where there are barriers and they got past their barriers. | 那里有障碍,他们越过了障碍。 |
| 112 | That's quite good. | 不错 |
| 113 | I think you can find smart people. | 我想你能找到聪明人 |
| 114 | You can find hardworking people. | 你可以找到勤劳的人。 |
| 115 | You can find highly ethical people. | 你可以找到道德高尚的人。 |
| 116 | And we're fortunate to work with lots of the best of the best. | 我们很幸运能和很多最优秀的人合作 |
| 117 | But I will say the one thing is I don't think you can teach creativity. | 但我会说一件事 我觉得你不能教创意 |
| 118 | Creativity is something you can I think learn to some degree through experience | 创造力是你们可以想象的 通过经验来学习的东西 |
| 119 | and trial and error and having to problem solve and look around corners. | 和尝试和错误, 并不得不解决问题 和看看周围的角落。 |
| 120 | And that is a little bit about life in many respects. | 这是关于生活的许多方面。 |
| 121 | Adaptability. | 适应性。 |
| 122 | Okay, adaptability, I like that word, actually. | 好吧,适应性,我喜欢这个词,实际上。 |
| 123 | If you look at species, the number one element for success of any species | 如果你看看物种, 任何物种成功的第一要素 |
| 124 | is not intelligence. | 不是情报 |
| 125 | It's not even how diligent. | 这甚至不怎么勤奋。 |
| 126 | It is adaptability, the ability to deal with that environment and readapt. | 这是适应能力,是应付这种环境和重新适应的能力。 |
| 127 | And that also helps to contribute to creativity. | 这也有助于创造力。 |
| 128 | Yes, yeah, that's a really good point. | 是的,是的,这是个很好的观点。 |
| 129 | But I think the thing that we want to get across to people here, right, | 但我想我们想和这里的人谈谈 |
| 130 | is there are paths and there are obstacles, right? | 有没有路径和障碍,对不对? |
| 131 | And so the people you're looking around and you're working with, | 所以,你周围的人 你的工作, |
| 132 | they may not be apparent or even in yourself, | 他们可能不明显 甚至你, |
| 133 | but life is a long journey with a lot of obstacles, | 但生活是一个漫长的旅程 有很多障碍, |
| 134 | a lot of things and how you work yourself through these various obstacles, | 很多事情 以及你如何克服这些障碍 |
| 135 | some of which are even very difficult to talk about. | 有些甚至很难谈 |
| 136 | That can give you great power. | 这可以给你巨大的力量。 |
| 137 | And so it's not the classic signs of that you're not going to make it. | 所以,这不是经典的征兆 你将无法做到这一点。 |
| 138 | No, it could be the ingredient that helps you make it. | 不,这可能是 成分帮助你做到这一点。 |
| 139 | And you know, Ray, I owe you a big debt on two things. | 雷,我欠你两件事 |
| 140 | You and I had a catch-up, not dissimilar to this, back in 2017. | 你和我在2017年有过一次追赶 而不是跟这个不一样 |
| 141 | You mentioned brain health, mental illness and issues you've had in your family. | 你提到大脑健康 精神疾病 还有你家里的问题 |
| 142 | And I said, oh, I know a lot about that. | 我说,哦,我知道很多关于这一点。 |
| 143 | I told you about my parents. | 我告诉过你我父母的事 |
| 144 | And what you said very offhand, very casual, | 你说的很直接 很随意 |
| 145 | you said, have you ever spoken about it? | 你说,你说过吗? |
| 146 | And I said, no. | 我说,不。 |
| 147 | And you said you should. | 你说你应该的 |
| 148 | 我说,OK。 | |
| 149 | And we went on stage with a couple thousand people. | 我们和几千人上台 |
| 150 | And I remember bringing that up in the course of the dialogue. | 我还记得在对话过程中提到了这一点。 |
| 151 | That both my parents had struggled with severe mental illness. | 我父母都患有严重的精神病 |
| 152 | And I told you about mine, my son Paul. | 我跟你提过我的儿子保罗 |
| 153 | You know, what happened that day was a number of people came up to me | 那天发生的事是 很多人来找我 |
| 154 | and they said to me, and I got to say, you know, | 他们对我说, 我得说,你知道, |
| 155 | for someone who grew up in that environment, | 对于在那种环境下长大的人, |
| 156 | you would think the fact that they were whispering | 你会认为他们悄悄地说 |
| 157 | would be something I would completely understand. | 我会完全理解 |
| 158 | But I was really taken back by it. | 但我真的被它夺回了 |
| 159 | And then I thought about it for a while and I thought to myself, | 然后我想了一段时间,我想,我自己, |
| 160 | well, I know why I didn't talk about my family's issues | 好吧,我知道为什么我没有 谈论我的家人的问题 |
| 161 | because my mother had a rule in the house | 因为我妈妈在房子里有个规矩 |
| 162 | that you cannot talk about the family issues outside of the home. | 不能在家庭之外谈论家庭问题。 |
| 163 | And that was a hard and fast rule. | 这是一个艰难和快速的规则。 |
| 164 | And that's partly because of the tragic stigma. | 这部分是因为 悲剧性的耻辱。 |
| 165 | But I realized that day when people were whispering to me | 但我意识到那天 人们在对我低语 |
| 166 | the stigma is still alive and well | 污名仍然活着,很好 |
| 167 | and people aren't comfortable talking about all the issues | 人们不自在地谈论所有的问题 |
| 168 | around depression, clinical diagnoses. | 抑郁症 临床诊断 |
| 169 | And so I took it upon myself to talk more about it. | 于是我决定自己多谈一下 |
| 170 | And the other thing you did is you said to me, | 还有一件事你对我说 |
| 171 | you have a pretty stressful job. | 你的工作压力很大 |
| 172 | And I said, I do. | 我说,我做的。 |
| 173 | And you said, do you meditate? | 你说,你冥想吗? |
| 174 | And I said, I used to when I was doing the martial arts, | 我说,我曾经做武术, |
| 175 | you said you should meditate again. | 你说你应该再冥想一次 |
| 176 | And I went out and I started doing | 我出去开始做 |
| 177 | Transcendental Meditation with your sparring. | 用你的弹簧做直肠冥想 |
| 178 | So how long have you been meditating? | 你冥想了多长时间? |
| 179 | Since 1969, when the Beatles went to India | 从1969年披头士去印度开始 |
| 180 | and then, you know, I figured I'd try it. | 然后,你知道,我想 我会尝试它。 |
| 181 | When you can calm yourself down | 当你能冷静下来 |
| 182 | and go into your subconscious in a sense | 并进入你的潜意识 从某种意义上 |
| 183 | and gain an equanimity so that whatever it is | 并获得公平,故无论它是什么, |
| 184 | that's coming at you, you can still be yourself | 来了,你还可以做你自己 |
| 185 | and you don't get hung up on all the things | 而且你不会被挂断所有的事情 |
| 186 | that people get hung up on. | 人们被挂断。 |
| 187 | And then if you look at stress | 如果你看到压力 |
| 188 | or whatever it is that's coming at you, | 不管它是什么 来向你, |
| 189 | that calmness so that you can approach it like, | 这样你就能接近它了 |
| 190 | it's like a ninja in a ninja movie, you know. | 就像忍者电影里的忍者 |
| 191 | For the ninja, everything sort of seems slows up | 对忍者来说,一切似乎都变慢了 |
| 192 | and it becomes easier to do those moves. | 做这些动作就更容易了 |
| 193 | That's what meditation is like. | 这就是冥想的滋味. |
| 194 | And so it's a big thing, I think, | 所以这是一件大事,我想, |
| 195 | in terms of giving one confidence, | 以便你们确信, |
| 196 | well, not confidence, this equanimity, you know. | 嗯,不是信心, 这种平和,你知道的。 |
| 197 | Well, you know, people say to me all the time, | 人们总是对我说 |
| 198 | they're like, okay, so you had this background, | 他们喜欢,好吧, 所以你有这个背景, |
| 199 | you must be confident now. | 你现在必须有信心 |
| 200 | I think that's an interesting question | 我觉得这是一个有趣的问题 |
| 201 | because for me, like I've always said, | 因为对我来说,就像我常说, |
| 202 | I think my core competency is insecurity. | 我认为我的核心能力是不安全。 |
| 203 | Now, that doesn't mean | 现在,这并不意味着 |
| 204 | I can't be confident about certain things, | 我对一些事情不能有信心 |
| 205 | but you know, for me, insecurity, | 但你知道,对我来说,不安全, |
| 206 | it probably wasn't until I was in my 30s, | 可能直到我30多岁 |
| 207 | I finally got past what people might say | 我终于摆脱了人们可能说的话 |
| 208 | is like, I don't know, conventional imposter syndrome, | 就像,我不知道, 常规冒牌货综合征, |
| 209 | you know, where, I don't know, | 你知道吗,在哪里,我不知道, |
| 210 | I think the technical definition is a lack of confidence | 我认为技术定义是缺乏信心 |
| 211 | despite evidence of repeated success. | 尽管有证据表明屡屡成功 |
| 212 | I needed a lot of repeated success | 我需要很多反复的成功 |
| 213 | to escape being the fattest failure | 成为最肥的失败者 |
| 214 | that didn't get into college | 没上过大学 |
| 215 | and had a lot of other challenges. | 还面临很多其他挑战 |
| 216 | It took well into my 30s where I felt some confidence. | 我花了30多岁才觉得有自信 |
| 217 | You know, insecurity allows for curiosity | 你知道,不安全感可以让人好奇 |
| 218 | because if you're insecure, | 因为如果你没有安全感, |
| 219 | you don't think you're the smartest person in the room. | 你不认为你是 房间里最聪明的人。 |
| 220 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 221 | You don't mind asking questions | 你不介意问问题吧 |
| 222 | and you don't mind, you really feel much better | 你不介意,你感觉好多了 |
| 223 | when you're surrounded by smart people | 当你被聪明人包围时 |
| 224 | because you're not the smartest, | 因为你不是最聪明的 |
| 225 | like I inherently know I'm not. | 就像我内在地知道我不是。 |
| 226 | And so it opens up a lot of doors | 所以它打开了很多门 |
| 227 | to improve the odds of an outcome | 提高结果的概率 |
| 228 | being more successful than not. | 更成功 而不是没有。 |
| 229 | I've learned this repeatedly | 我屡次学到这个 |
| 230 | and I've hired the valedictorians | 我雇了花酒师 |
| 231 | of the best schools and all of this thing. | 最好的学校和所有的东西。 |
| 232 | And what happens is | 发生的事是 |
| 233 | they come up to a barrier of what they know | 他们为自己所认识的事物而遭遇重重障碍, |
| 234 | and they come out a little bit | 他们出来了一点 |
| 235 | confident and arrogant of what you know. | 自信而傲慢的你所知道的。 |
| 236 | And whatever you know | 无论你知道什么 |
| 237 | is only a small percentage of what you need to know. | 只占你需要知道的一小部分。 |
| 238 | And that when they can, in a sense, | 而当他们可以, 从某种意义上来说, |
| 239 | realize that decision-making is a two-step process | 认识到决策是一个两步走的过程 |
| 240 | you have to take in before you put out. | 在你熄灭前你必须接进去 |
| 241 | And for me, failing and crashing | 对我来说,失败和崩溃 |
| 242 | has been the greatest benefit I had. | 这是我最大的好处 |
| 243 | Like I crashed in 1982 | 就像我在1982年坠毁 |
| 244 | and I thought we were going to have an economic plunge | 我以为我们会有一个经济困境 |
| 245 | and we had instead of boom. | 我们没有繁荣。 |
| 246 | And I couldn't have been more wrong. | 我不能再错了 |
| 247 | And it was very embarrassing. | 非常尴尬 |
| 248 | I was so broke. | 我破产了 |
| 249 | I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad. | 我不得不向我爸借四千块 |
| 250 | And but that was one of the best things | 但这是最好的一件事 |
| 251 | that ever happened to me | 曾经发生在我身上 |
| 252 | because it gave me the humility | 因为它给了我谦卑 |
| 253 | I needed to balance with my audacity. | 我需要平衡我的大胆。 |
| 254 | So I've got this this sort of principle | 所以我有这种原则 |
| 255 | that if you worry, you don't need to worry. | 如果你担心,你不需要担心。 |
| 256 | And if you don't worry, you need to worry. | 如果你不担心, 你需要担心。 |
| 257 | Okay, because if you don't worry, | 好吧,因为如果你不担心, |
| 258 | you're not taking care of the things | 你没有照顾的东西 |
| 259 | that you should worry about. | 你应该担心。 |
| 260 | It's really worry, worry with action. | 它真的很担心, 担心行动。 |
| 261 | When you think about the world today, | 当你想到今天的世界时 |
| 262 | what makes you worry? | 什么让你担心? |
| 263 | How people are with each other. | 如何是人与众生. |
| 264 | Political polarity | 政治极性 |
| 265 | that is almost emerging into a type of civil war. | 这几乎正在演变成一种内战。 |
| 266 | We have a geopolitical breakdown. | 我们有地缘政治崩溃。 |
| 267 | So in other words, | 所以换句话说 |
| 268 | we are going from what was a multilateral | 我们从一个多边 |
| 269 | worlds-based rules-based order | 基于世界的规则秩序 |
| 270 | to laws of the jungle and fighting in a way | 丛林法则 以某种方式战斗 |
| 271 | and a shift in relative power. | 和相对权力的转变。 |
| 272 | These are things to worry about. | 这些都是值得担心的事情。 |
| 273 | And then technology, which is now our technology. | 然后技术,现在是我们的技术。 |
| 274 | It's so fabulous, | 这是如此美妙, |
| 275 | but it's also so dangerous in so many ways. | 但它也如此危险 在很多方面。 |
| 276 | Dangerous for jobs, dangerous for each other, | 危险的工作,危险彼此, |
| 277 | that the harms that could be done together. | 伤害可以一起做。 |
| 278 | And so when I look at those, | 所以当我看着这些, |
| 279 | those are circumstances | 这些是情节 |
| 280 | that it brings the pros and cons. | 它带来利弊。 |
| 281 | And at the same time, | 同时, |
| 282 | if people could deal with each other well, | 如果大家能好好相处 |
| 283 | if we could deal with these things. | 如果我们能处理这些事情 |
| 284 | I think again, I go back to, | 我再说一遍,我回到... |
| 285 | well, you know, again, born in 1964, | 嗯,你知道,再次,出生于1964年, |
| 286 | all the trends, declining interest rates and deflation. | 利率下降和通货紧缩 |
| 287 | Again, there were some horrible things happen in the world, | 再说一遍,世界上发生了一些可怕的事情, |
| 288 | but generally speaking, | 但总的来说, |
| 289 | the world was more peaceful | 这个世界更和平 |
| 290 | versus clearly the prior period of time. | 相对于前一个时期。 |
| 291 | The orderly American world order. | 有序的美国世界秩序. |
| 292 | And that underpinning, | 而这个基础, |
| 293 | that geopolitical underpinning and cooperation, | 地缘政治基础与合作, |
| 294 | that allowed for an economic model. | 经济模式。 |
| 295 | We had a middle class. | 我们有一个中产阶级。 |
| 296 | And we had global poverty come down meaningfully. | 我们让全球的贫困有了有意义的减少。 |
| 297 | Notwithstanding the fact there's a lot of suffering | 虽然有这么多痛苦 |
| 298 | in the world and it has to be acknowledged. | 在世界上,它必须得到承认。 |
| 299 | And today you're seeing geopolitical splintering, | 今天你看到地缘政治分裂 |
| 300 | very different, | 非常不一样, |
| 301 | which is really what you're talking about, | 这才是你说的 |
| 302 | the lack of geopolitical cooperation. | 缺乏地缘政治合作。 |
| 303 | And by the way, the economic cooperation | 顺便说一句,经济合作 |
| 304 | can't unravel itself as quickly as geopolitical cooperation. | 不能像地缘政治合作那样迅速瓦解 |
| 305 | We've got a kind of a bit of an unlucky | 我们有点不走运 |
| 306 | beginning of this century. | 本世纪初 |
| 307 | It's not an unlucky thing. | 这不是一件不幸的事。 |
| 308 | Well, I'm not gonna say, I'll tell you why I say it. | 我不会说,我会告诉你为什么 |
| 309 | We had 2008, you might argue that was unlucky, | 我们曾经在2008年 你可能会说那很不幸 |
| 310 | but really before that we had 9-11, | 但在此之前,我们有9 -11, |
| 311 | 2008 and the pandemic. | 2008年和该大流行病。 |
| 312 | And these are consequential events, | 这些是必然的事件, |
| 313 | which have contributed to this shift, | 促成这种转变的, |
| 314 | contributed to higher deficits, | 导致赤字增加, |
| 315 | I would argue contributed to the wealth gap. | 我认为造成财富差距的原因。 |
| 316 | The fact that roughly 43 million households | 大约4 300万个家庭 |
| 317 | in the United States consume $15 trillion a year, | 美国每年消费15万亿美元 |
| 318 | that's the size of China. | 这就是中国的大小。 |
| 319 | And these are real issues. | 这些都是真正的问题。 |
| 320 | I'm totally in sync with you that they're real issues. | 我完全与你同步 他们才是真正的问题 |
| 321 | I'm just saying that because I'm watching these, | 我只是说 因为我在看这些 |
| 322 | I studied the last 500 years of history | 我研究了过去500年的历史 |
| 323 | because to watch the rise and decline | 因为看着涨落 |
| 324 | of reserve currencies and things like that. | 储备货币之类的东西 |
| 325 | And what I learned is that there are these big cycles. | 我学到的是,有这样的大循环。 |
| 326 | And it's not because they're predestined to cycles. | 这不是因为他们注定要循环。 |
| 327 | It's that what happens is when you have a great conflict, | 这是因为当你遇到大冲突时 |
| 328 | when you have a debt problem | 当你有债务问题时 |
| 329 | and you have a great conflict internally and externally | 你们在内部和外部都发生了巨大的冲突, |
| 330 | and so on, you have a war or you have conflict. | 战争或冲突 |
| 331 | And you have any... | 你还有... |
| 332 | No, I think these great cycles are human nature. | 不,我认为这些伟大的循环 是人性。 |
| 333 | But human nature is a big part of it. | 但人性是其中的一大部分. |
| 334 | But it's also when you're in a different position, | 但当你处于不同的地位时 |
| 335 | when you have more debt than you didn't have | 当你的债务比你没有多的时候 |
| 336 | because you wiped it out. | 因为你毁了它。 |
| 337 | So now it's very interesting | 所以现在它非常有趣 |
| 338 | because every order we call a system an order, | 因为我们把系统称为命令 |
| 339 | there's a monetary order, | 有一个货币秩序, |
| 340 | there's a domestic political order | 有国内政治秩序 |
| 341 | and there's an international world order. | 并有一个国际世界秩序。 |
| 342 | And through all history, they have come and gone | 历经一切历史 他们来来去去 |
| 343 | and they have had conflicts | 他们曾遭遇冲突, |
| 344 | and for the same cause effect relationship | 和同一因果关系 |
| 345 | because there's a certain dynamic, for example. | 因为有某种动态,例如。 |
| 346 | One of the great things about capitalism, | 关于资本主义的一件大事 |
| 347 | one of the challenges of capitalism, | 资本主义的挑战之一, |
| 348 | the great things about that is the inventiveness, | 伟大的事情是发明, |
| 349 | the entrepreneurship and all of that comes up and so on. | 企业家精神和这一切 出现等等。 |
| 350 | And then simultaneously, | 然后同时, |
| 351 | it produces also great wealth gaps and differences | 也会产生巨大的财富差距和差异 |
| 352 | that can produce great opportunity gaps. | 这会造成巨大的机会差距。 |
| 353 | And then we think about what's going on. | 后复思惟众生. |
| 354 | We've got a great bull market here. | 这里的牛市很棒 |
| 355 | Who owns stocks? | 谁拥有股票? |
| 356 | Who doesn't own stocks? | 谁不拥有股票? |
| 357 | No, it's just amplifying. | 不,它只是扩大。 |
| 358 | What does that mean in those technologies, right? | 这是什么意思 在这些技术,对不对? |
| 359 | I'm a chronically glass half full optimist. | 我是一个慢性的玻璃半乐观主义者。 |
| 360 | I do agree with you on the significance of where we are | 我同意你的观点,认为我们在哪里 |
| 361 | and I call it and we're at a pretty meaningful | 我称之为,我们在一个相当有意义的 |
| 362 | economic global inflection point, I think. | 我认为,经济的全球性缺陷。 |
| 363 | If you look at history and your cycles | 如果你看历史和周期 |
| 364 | and I think we're at an important part of the cycle. | 我认为我们正处于循环的重要阶段。 |
| 365 | I know you, you're generally an optimistic person. | 我了解你 你一般都很乐观 |
| 366 | People could hear you as being much less optimistic right now. | 人们现在会听到你不那么乐观 |
| 367 | What do you feel good about? | 你感觉怎么样? |
| 368 | I think if you're realistic, you don't have to worry. | 我认为如果你是现实的, 你不必担心。 |
| 369 | And if you don't worry, you need to worry. | 如果你不担心, 你需要担心。 |
| 370 | Okay, because there are things we can do. | 好吧,因为有些事情我们可以做。 |
| 371 | We can manage our budget balances better. | 我们可以更好地管理预算平衡。 |
| 372 | Okay, we can be better with each other. | 好吧,我们可以更好 彼此。 |
| 373 | Okay, whether domestically or internationally, | 好吧,无论是国内还是国际, |
| 374 | we can choose not to fight. | 我们可以选择不战斗。 |
| 375 | And if we worry about some of those things | 如果我们担心那些东西 |
| 376 | because they are realistic worries like anybody | 因为他们是现实的担心 像任何人 |
| 377 | watching television or living the daily lives | 观看电视或过着日常生活 |
| 378 | must recognize all these things, right? | 必须认清这一切,对不对? |
| 379 | If we can understand the notion of what goes around comes around | 狦и罙秆 狦и罙秆 或ㄆ |
| 380 | do unto others as you would have them do unto you, | 你们应当对别人做你们要做的事, |
| 381 | karma, those types of things. | 因果报应,这些类型的东西。 |
| 382 | But it takes giving up, let's say, something of selfishness | 但它需要放弃,让我们说, 一些自私的东西 |
| 383 | or whatever it is for the common good. | 或一切为众生利益. |
| 384 | What's good for most of us? | 对我们大多数人有什么好处? |
| 385 | And that sounds really idealistic, | 这听起来真的很理想主义, |
| 386 | but I'm just trying to be practical. | 但我只是想实际一点 |
| 387 | We used to do it better, you know, | 我们以前都做得更好 |
| 388 | 25 years ago we did a lot better. | 25年前,我们做得更好。 |
| 389 | And a lot of people would challenge you and say, | 很多人会挑战你 说: |
| 390 | well, 25 years the environment was different. | 25年的环境不同 |
| 391 | The circumstances were different. | 情况不同。 |
| 392 | It allowed people to do it better. | 它可以让人们做得更好。 |
| 393 | And that may be the case, but it doesn't matter. | 也许是这样,但没关系 |
| 394 | I'm talking about cause-effect relationships. | 我说的是因果关系 |
| 395 | If you take the Industrial Revolution, | 如果你参加工业革命 |
| 396 | the Industrial Revolution creates so many fabulous things | 工业革命造就了这么多美妙的东西 |
| 397 | and it raises living standards. | 它提高了生活水平。 |
| 398 | You had the Gilded Age and then you had the robber barons. | 你拥有吉尔德时代,然后你拥有强盗男爵。 |
| 399 | And then you go into the panic of 1907, | 然后你陷入了1907年的恐慌之中 |
| 400 | caused this great clash, World War I and that dynamic. | 引发了这场大冲突,第一次世界大战和那场动态. |
| 401 | And 1929 and the Great Depression. | 1929年和大萧条. |
| 402 | All these events are linked. | 所有这些事件都是相互关联的。 |
| 403 | Our economic conditions affect our social conditions. | 我们的经济条件影响到我们的社会条件。 |
| 404 | So if we're looking at, let's say that period, | 因此,如果我们看, 让我们假设那个时期, |
| 405 | I worry about that period between the midterm elections | 我担心中期选举之间的那个时期 |
| 406 | and the presidential elections for a number of reasons. | 以及总统选举,原因很多。 |
| 407 | There are things that come together. | 有一些东西是一起来的。 |
| 408 | Look, nobody has the definitive answer | 你看,没有人有明确的答案 |
| 409 | on what the future is going to look like, | 关于未来会是什么样子, |
| 410 | but it is going to come down with how we are with each other, | 但随着我们彼此的相遇, |
| 411 | right? | 对吧? |
| 412 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 413 | I'll tell you why I'm optimistic. | 告诉你我为什么乐观 |
| 414 | I'm optimistic because while those periods you just | 我很乐观,因为当那些时期你只是 |
| 415 | highlighted were quite tragic, | 非常悲惨, |
| 416 | they gave birth to a period of cooperation, peace, | 他们创造了一个合作、和平的时期, |
| 417 | really very sound financial policies. | 非常好的金融政策。 |
| 418 | And again, you've talked about these cycles | 再说一遍,你说过这些循环 |
| 419 | and we're in these cycles and these waves are very long | 我们处在这些循环中 这些波浪非常长 |
| 420 | and very powerful. | 和非常强大的。 |
| 421 | And I like to think of we're in a period now, | 我喜欢想到我们现在正处于一个时期, |
| 422 | which is a bit of an inflection point, | 这有点不切实际 |
| 423 | reversing a lot of the trends which have driven lots | 扭转许多驱动力的趋势 |
| 424 | of wonderful things for the past 50 years, right? | 过去50年的美好事物 对吧? |
| 425 | I mean, the whole discussion globally has pivoted | 我的意思是,整个讨论 在全球的支柱 |
| 426 | in the past four years. | 在过去四年。 |
| 427 | Whereas you would have talked about things | 你本来会谈论事情的 |
| 428 | like energy transition. | 就像能量转换 |
| 429 | Now you talk about energy diversification | 现在你谈论能源多样化 |
| 430 | because energy is now a national security issue. | 因为能源现在是国家安全问题 |
| 431 | Japan, Canada, Europe, United States, defense spending | 日本、加拿大、欧洲、美国,国防开支 |
| 432 | going up everywhere in the world. | 到处都是 |
| 433 | And we sit here with two wars going on simultaneously | 我们坐在这里 两次战争同时进行 |
| 434 | while we have this nice conversation safely here | 趁我们安全地在这里聊天 |
| 435 | in the CNN studio. | 在CNN工作室。 |
| 436 | I think on the other side of the midterms, | 我想在中期的另一边 |
| 437 | I'm hoping we get to a point actually | 我希望我们能说清楚 |
| 438 | where your forecast is wrong. | 你的预测有误 |
| 439 | I hope this is more like your earlier forecast | 我希望这更像你之前的预测 |
| 440 | and it's not as violent or if it is, | 如果不是暴力的话, |
| 441 | the discourse leads us to a place that becomes less so. | 话语把我们带到一个 变得不那么重要的地方 |
| 442 | If there's not cooperation and collaboration, | 如果没有合作和协作, |
| 443 | we're not gonna make progress at the pace we could. | 我们不会以可能的速度取得进展。 |
| 444 | Neither of us knows what the future is going to hold. | 我们都不知道未来会如何 |
| 445 | Hope is a nice thing to have, | 希望是个好东西, |
| 446 | but I'm every day playing on the board | 但我每天都在玩板子游戏 |
| 447 | and I have for 60 years have to put the bets and so on. | 我有60年的时间去下注 |
| 448 | And I can say then the best thing to do | 我可以说,那么最好的办法 |
| 449 | is to know how to diversify well, okay? | 要知道如何 多样化,好吗? |
| 450 | Because to know how you deal with your not knowing | 因为你不知道自己是怎么应付的 |
| 451 | is more powerful than anything you know. | 比任何你知道的都强 |
| 452 | And so if you know how to do that | 如果你知道该怎么做 |
| 453 | and do that in a way that doesn't lose your returns. | 以不失去回报的方式做到这一点。 |
| 454 | Well, I would also say there are times | 好吧,我也会说,有时 |
| 455 | where you can be more certain | 在那里你可以更确定一点 |
| 456 | and times where you're more uncertain. | 以及你更不确定的时间 |
| 457 | I do think this is a period | 我认为这是一个时期 |
| 458 | where uncertainty trades at a premium | 不确定因素以溢价交易 |
| 459 | and diversification is a great protector for that. | 多样化是这方面的伟大保护者。 |
| 460 | Okay, so I'm just saying in terms of myself, | 好吧,所以我只是说 从我自己, |
| 461 | I'm sitting in this seat because I played the game | 我坐在这个座位上是因为我玩了游戏 |
| 462 | and I'm a realistic game player and I could be wrong | 我是一个现实的游戏玩家 我可能错了 |
| 463 | and therefore I don't want any concentrated bets | 因此,我不想任何集中的赌注 |
| 464 | and I know how to do that, okay? | 我知道怎么做,好吗? |
| 465 | And there are things going on in the world | 世界上有些事情发生 |
| 466 | that are interesting bets | 有趣的赌注 |
| 467 | that are different from the classic bets. | 与经典赌注不同 |
| 468 | The market right now is driving itself to concentration. | 现在的市场正在走向集中。 |
| 469 | It's understandable, okay? | 这是可以理解的,好吗? |
| 470 | The nature of that dynamic is that's volatile | 这种动态的性质是不稳定的 |
| 471 | and that changes in a certain way. | 和它的变化 以某种方式。 |
| 472 | How does one play with that game? | 游戏怎么玩? |
| 473 | Okay, I'm just a player of the game | 好吧,我只是一个玩家 |
| 474 | and when I look at that playing of the game, | 当我看着游戏的玩法 |
| 475 | I know how to engineer | 我知道怎么设计 |
| 476 | and I'm gonna try on a stage of my life | 我会尝试在我的生活的一个阶段 |
| 477 | that I wanna pass things along. | 我想把事情传过去 |
| 478 | I want people to understand | 我想让人们明白 |
| 479 | that they can engineer a safer portfolio | 他们可以设计一个更安全的组合 |
| 480 | without having that kind of concentration | 没有那种集中 |
| 481 | because you have a decision to make. | 因为你有决定权 |
| 482 | There are issues of bubbles. | 有气泡问题. |
| 483 | If anybody's seen a bubble, | 如果有人看到一个泡沫, |
| 484 | you understand that there's not precise investing. | 你知道没有确切的投资。 |
| 485 | That because in a bubble, | 因为在一个泡沫中, |
| 486 | everybody's got to throw all the money in | 大家都得把钱都扔进去 |
| 487 | to try to win the game | 试图赢得比赛 |
| 488 | without regard for knowing what the future's like. | 不顾未来 |
| 489 | Well, there's a lot of new things in the world. | 嗯,世界上有很多新的东西。 |
| 490 | FOMO's not new, right? | FOMO不是新来的 对吧? |
| 491 | FOMO,但FOMO来 在那些时刻。 | |
| 492 | When you're meeting with young people today, | 今天你和年轻人见面时 |
| 493 | what's the message you leave them with? | 你给他们留下的信息是什么? |
| 494 | Non-markets. | 非市场。 |
| 495 | That my in large life is the opposite | 说在大生命中,我恰恰相反 |
| 496 | of how it's been told to you | 如何告诉你 |
| 497 | and that what you have to do is understand | 你所必须做的事,是明白的, |
| 498 | it's an adventure | 这是一个冒险 |
| 499 | and you have to understand your nature | 你必须明白你的本性 |
| 500 | and you have to find the path | 你必须找到路径 |
| 501 | that suits your nature | 适合你的本性 |
| 502 | and that it's a discovery process. | 而这是一个发现过程。 |
| 503 | You know, when I was 24, | 你知道,当我24岁, |
| 504 | someone to me a great favor | 帮我个忙 |
| 505 | gave me a job at Citibank | 在花旗银行给我工作 |
| 506 | and one of the smartest people I met | 我见过最聪明的人之一 |
| 507 | at that point in my life certainly | 在我生命的那一刻 |
| 508 | and I said, hey, can we have a beer together? | 我说,嘿,我们能一起喝杯啤酒吗? |
| 509 | I just want some advice. | 我只是想得到一些建议。 |
| 510 | We sat down and it's such a cringey story | 我们坐下来,这是这么一个故事 |
| 511 | and I said, geez, you know, | 我说,天啊,你知道, |
| 512 | I would have thought you would have achieved | 我本以为你会实现的 |
| 513 | a lot more by now. | 现在已经多了 |
| 514 | Maybe he was like 15 years older than me | 也许他比我大15岁 |
| 515 | because you're so smart. | 因为你这么聪明 |
| 516 | I meant it as a compliment, Ray. | 我是在恭维你 雷 |
| 517 | And you know, there was a lot taught | 你知道,有很多教 |
| 518 | in the next 60, 90 seconds from this person. | 在接下来的60,90秒 距离这个人。 |
| 519 | The first thing was they were incredibly gracious | 第一件事是,他们非常慷慨 |
| 520 | about my wildly awkward compliment, | 关于我疯狂尴尬的恭维, |
| 521 | which was not really a compliment, | 这不是真正的恭维, |
| 522 | I guess in retrospect. | 我想回顾一下 |
| 523 | Then he said, you know, you'll realize in life | 然后他说,你知道, 你会意识到在生活中 |
| 524 | careers are 50% luck, 50% scale. | 职业是50%的幸运,50%的尺度。 |
| 525 | And I found that to be an exceptionally good summary | 我发现这是一个非常好的总结 |
| 526 | for the way life does unfold | 为了生活的发展 |
| 527 | and this notion that today young people feel like, | 和这个概念,今天年轻人觉得, |
| 528 | oh, it can all be managed. | 哦,这一切都可以管理。 |
| 529 | It's too random and your language around | 这太随意了,你的语言在周围 |
| 530 | just like embracing it. | 就像拥抱它一样 |
| 531 | And I do think the 50% luck, like for me, | 我确实认为 50%的运气,像我一样, |
| 532 | I think it could be 90% luck, 10%, | 我认为它可能是90%的运气,10%, |
| 533 | maybe 99.1 because I've just had people come into my life. | 可能99.1 因为我刚刚有人进入我的生活 |
| 534 | But the person that was asking that question | 但那个问这个问题的人 |
| 535 | when I was 25 couldn't have imagined | 我25岁的时候 没想到 |
| 536 | sitting here with you. | 坐在这里和你在一起。 |
| 537 | It wasn't even a consideration, | 这甚至不是一个考虑, |
| 538 | but for a series of lots of random events, | 但对于一系列的随机事件, |
| 539 | yet a bit of hard work and a lot of luck. | 但努力工作,运气也不错 |
| 540 | And you can only manage so much in life | 你一生中只能做这么多 |
| 541 | and there are gonna be some really hard parts. | 并且会有一些非常难的部分。 |
| 542 | I gotta tell you, for me, | 我得告诉你,对我来说, |
| 543 | a lot of the grounding is in just being grateful | 大部分的地盘只是感谢 |
| 544 | for the fact that it all worked out. | 因为事情已经解决了 |
| 545 | And at one point in time, or many points in time, | 在一个时间点,或者很多时间点, |
| 546 | it didn't feel like it would work out at all, | 感觉完全没有结果 |
| 547 | but for the help of a lot of people | 但为了很多人的帮助 |
| 548 | who intervened in my life who actually didn't have to. | 谁干涉我的生活 谁实际上不需要。 |
| 549 | And I asked someone once, | 我曾经问过一个人 |
| 550 | why did you do that for me? | 你为什么要为我这么做? |
| 551 | Someone gave me a job who didn't have to give me a job. | 有人给了我一个工作 谁不需要给我一个工作。 |
| 552 | I was looking for like some sophisticated insight. | 我在找一些复杂的见解。 |
| 553 | Oh, I saw a special thing about you, Harvey, as a kid. | 哦,我看到了一个特殊的事情 你,哈维,作为一个孩子。 |
| 554 | He said, it was the right thing to do. | 他说,这样做是正确的。 |
| 555 | So, you know, sometimes you have mentors. | 所以,你知道,有时你有导师。 |
| 556 | It's a good path. | 大道妙义. |
| 557 | Sometimes you have mentors, sometimes you have angels. | 有时有导师,有时有天使. |
| 558 | That was the right thing to do, to have that beacon. | 拥有那个信标是正确的 |
| 559 | If everybody can get a little injection of that. | 如果每个人都能得到 一点点注射。 |
| 560 | Yes, we'd be in a much better place. | 是的,我们会在一个更好的地方。 |
| 561 | Right. | 对 |
| 562 | Great to see you, right? | 很高兴见到你,对吧? |
| 563 | That's the human nature. | 这就是人性。 |
| 564 | It is. | 没错 |
| 565 | If you have angels, we need more angels, buddy. | 如果你有天使,我们需要更多的天使,伙计。 |
| 566 | Thanks very much. | 非常感谢 |
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