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万斯还是鲁比奥?川普接班人之争提前升温 | 2026.5.1

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0:01Is there a new frontrunner in the shadow Republican race to succeed Donald Trump as president?影子共和党的竞选中是否有新的前锋接替唐纳德·特朗普出任总统?.
0:08This week, everyone noticed Marco Rubio, first looking quite comfortable at the White House这周大家都注意到Marco Rubio 第一次在白宫很舒服
0:15briefing podium, then at the Vatican exchanging gifts with Pope Leo after weeks of President然后在梵蒂冈与教宗利奥交换礼物
0:22Trump criticizing the pontiff before Rubio went on to meet with Italy's prime minister.特朗普在鲁比奥继续会见意大利总理前批评庞蒂夫.
0:28Of course, he is a secretary of state, but it's tough not to compare him with J.D.当然,他是国务秘书,但是不把他和J. D.
0:34Vance,万斯 万斯 万斯 万斯
0:35the vice president, right now.副总统,现在。
0:37Sources have previously told us that President Trump has openly mused about his vice president's消息人士曾告诉我们,川普总统公开抱怨他的副总统
0:43performance and even asked friends to compare Vance with Rubio.表现甚至要求朋友将万斯和鲁比奥进行比较.
0:49And that makes this video, uploaded by Rubio's team this week, seem all the more eyebrow鲁比奥的团队本周上传的这段视频 显得更眉毛
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序号英文中文
1Is there a new frontrunner in the shadow Republican race to succeed Donald Trump as president?影子共和党的竞选中是否有新的前锋接替唐纳德·特朗普出任总统?.
2This week, everyone noticed Marco Rubio, first looking quite comfortable at the White House这周大家都注意到Marco Rubio 第一次在白宫很舒服
3briefing podium, then at the Vatican exchanging gifts with Pope Leo after weeks of President然后在梵蒂冈与教宗利奥交换礼物
4Trump criticizing the pontiff before Rubio went on to meet with Italy's prime minister.特朗普在鲁比奥继续会见意大利总理前批评庞蒂夫.
5Of course, he is a secretary of state, but it's tough not to compare him with J.D.当然,他是国务秘书,但是不把他和J. D.
6Vance,万斯 万斯 万斯 万斯
7the vice president, right now.副总统,现在。
8Sources have previously told us that President Trump has openly mused about his vice president's消息人士曾告诉我们,川普总统公开抱怨他的副总统
9performance and even asked friends to compare Vance with Rubio.表现甚至要求朋友将万斯和鲁比奥进行比较.
10And that makes this video, uploaded by Rubio's team this week, seem all the more eyebrow鲁比奥的团队本周上传的这段视频 显得更眉毛
11raising, shall we say.升起,我们说。
12What is your hope for America at a time such as this?在这样的时刻,你对美国有什么希望?
13My hope for America?我对美国的希望?
14My hope for America is what it's always been.我对美国的希望一直如此
15I think it's the hope I hope we all share.我认为这是希望,我希望我们都分享。
16We want it to continue to be the place where anyone from anywhere can achieve anything.我们希望它继续是任何地方的任何人能够取得任何成就的地方。
17Where you're not limited by the circumstances of your birth, by the color of your skin,在你不受出生环境,肤色的限制的地方
18by your ethnicity, but frankly, it's a place where you are able to overcome challenges老实说,这是你能克服挑战的地方
19and achieve your full potential.并实现你的全部潜力。
20Congressman, that ad, that video, I guess it's not an ad, it's a video, but still议员,那个广告,那个视频, 我想这不是一个广告, 这是一个视频,
21it seems like a campaign ad, which I think is why I'm tripping on it.这似乎是一个竞选广告, 我想这就是为什么我要绊倒它。
22What did you make of Rubio's performance over the course of the past week?你对鲁比奥过去一周的表现有何评价?
23I realize it's early, sort of baked in, but let's be real, it's always ongoing.我知道现在很早,有点烤熟, 但是,我们来真的吧,它总是持续的。
24Wow.珃
25That's what this week has shown for Team Rubio and for the interest of Republican activists这周鲁比奥队和共和党活动家们 都表现出来了
26around the country.全国各地
27We've always talked about the memes.我们总是谈论 迷因。
28The Rubio memes have so dominated this year of him sitting on the couch and then the multiple今年鲁比奥的迷宫 一直占据主导地位 他坐在沙发上,然后是多重
29different disguises of what he's doing.不同的伪装 他在做什么。
30Every job that is the most treacherous, worst job of the week, of the day, whatever the每一份工作都是最狡猾的,最糟糕的 每周,一天,不管怎样
31meme is.и琌
32He was even the DJ briefly a couple weeks ago, I think we have a picture of that.几周前他甚至短暂地当了DJ 我想我们有一张照片
33I will admit that I don't know, I think I'm a little old for this meme, but here it is.我会承认我不知道, 我想我有点老了 这个meme,但在这里。
34There's the man himself.那个人就是他本人
35You've got to wonder what he's playing.你必须想知道他在玩什么
36Anyway, sorry.无论如何,对不起。
37But he's done it as a meme, and that shows you some level of political connectivity in但他做它作为一个meme, 这显示你 某种程度的政治连接
38this environment.这种环境。
39But this week showed that this internal apparatus around the White House is very interested但本周显示 白宫周围的内部机器非常感兴趣
40in his talent and what that could bring to Republican successor to President Trump.他的才华 以及这给共和党继任特朗普总统带来的结果
41Now, I think we have to ask the question though, does Rubio actually want it?现在,我想我们必须问这个问题,鲁比奥真的想要吗?
42And that is a very secondary question to this whole atmosphere now.这是整个大气层的次要问题。
43Do you have any evidence that he doesn't want it?你有证据表明他不想要吗?
44Of course he wants it.他当然想要
45What are you saying?你说什么?
46Yeah, of course he wants it.是的,他当然想要。
47Also I will say that he was, it was a little masterful I would have to say, because he's我还要说,他是,这是一个小 高手,我不得不说,因为他是
48not only catering to Donald Trump, you're hearing his words also with Donald Trump on不仅向唐纳德·特朗普致敬 你听到他和唐纳德·特朗普的谈话
49the sort of, the screen and the video, which he understands who his audience is, he understands那种,屏幕和视频, 他理解他的观众是谁,他理解
50he needs Donald Trump to go out there and support him in order to have your base.他需要唐纳德·特朗普去支持他 以便拥有你的基地
51At the same time, he talks about you should not be limited by the color of your skin,同时,他谈到你时 不应该因为你的肤色而受到限制
52where you come from, et cetera, which are words that would never come out of Donald你来自哪里,等等, 这些词永远不会出自唐纳德
53Trump's mouth.特朗普的嘴.
54And so at the same time, he's trying, seems like he's trying to appeal to a broader electorate,所以同时,他试图, 似乎他试图呼吁更广泛的选民,
55which whoever runs will need to do that.不管谁跑 都得这么做
56Whether it works, whether that works in a MAGA primary, no clue, but he's starting to它是否有效, 是否工作在MAGA初级, 没有线索, 但他开始
57lay the groundwork on the two.为两者奠定基础。
58Even if it's not just a MAGA primary, the two silhouettes you saw in that video, one即使它不只是一个MAGA初级, 你看到的两个Silhouette 在视频,一个
59is Donald Trump, two, Ronald Reagan.是唐纳德·特朗普 第二,罗纳德·里根
60And he was speaking to, it's funny that you call it an ad, Kasey, because come on, it's他说话,这很有趣 你把它叫做广告,凯西,因为来吧,这是
61a campaign ad.一个竞选广告。
62I'm Marco Rubio and I approve this message.我是马可·鲁比奥 我同意这个消息
63He's Marco Rubio, he approves this message.他是马可·鲁比奥 他同意这个消息
64I mean, maybe my definition of ad is outdated, because who even really cares about traditional我的意思是,也许我的广告定义已经过时了, 因为谁甚至真正关心传统
65TV spend?电视费?
66It's all about your phone anyway.反正都是你的电话
67Sorry.对不起
68But point being, there are two big voices in the American political right over the last但问题是,美国政治右派中 有两个大声音
69generation, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump, and he seems to be speaking to, like you said,一代人,罗纳德·里根和唐纳德·特朗普, 他似乎在说话,就像你说的,
70associate all things to all people, at least within who will be voting in that primary将一切与所有人联系在一起,至少是在谁将投票 在初级
71in a couple of years.在几年内。
72The message was vintage.信息是古董的。
73I mean, that was like a Rubio 2016 ad, like from pre-Trump times, like just the message,我的意思是,这就像一个Rubio 2016的广告, 像从川普前的时代, 像只是信息,
74the inclusive message.包容性信息。
75I mean, it was, I also said, wow, when I saw that on his Twitter feed, like he's just blatantly我的意思是,我也说,哇, 当我在他的推特上看到这一点, 就像他只是公然
76launching a presidential campaign from his official account is what it looked like.从他的官方账户里发起一场总统竞选 看上去就是这样
77Also I find the Rubio memes and the fact that he's doing everything funny when it's juxtaposed还有,我发现鲁比奥的迷因 和他在做所有有趣的事情 当它同时出现
78with the reality that Jared Kushner and Witkoff are the ones who are like going to Ukraine,现实中贾里德·库什纳和维特克夫 就像是去乌克兰一样
79going to Iran, negotiating every war in the world.去伊朗,谈判世界上的每一场战争。
80And he's actually, as Secretary of State, seems a little sidelined from being like the实际上,作为国务卿, 他似乎有点被从像
81main negotiators of our international crises.我们国际危机的主要谈判者。
82Somehow though, to his benefit, he still benefits from this idea that he's doing every job in不过,为了他的利益,他仍然从这个想法中获益,即他正在做每一项工作。
83the administration.行政部门。
84Take it a step further.更进一步。
85It's not, not only, okay, so he's the Secretary of State, but there are these other folks不仅如此 他是国务卿 还有其他人
86in the Middle East doing a lot of, he's also not Vice President of the United States.在中东做了很多 他也不是美国副总统
87And we're here talking about his prospects as the future of the Republican Party.我们在这里谈论他作为共和党未来的前景.
88Where is JD Vance right now as we're having this?范斯博士现在在哪里?
89And it's a reminder.且作是念已.
90He was in Iowa.他在爱荷华州。
91He's in Iowa.他在爱荷华州。
92But still, but it's a reminder of sort of what a crappy job Vice President is.但它提醒人们 副总统的工作多么糟糕
93It is.没错
94I was looking, look at the optics.我在看 看光学
95For the first 100 years of our Republic, the keys to the White House went through being在我们共和国的最初100年里, 白宫的钥匙经历了
96Secretary of State.国务大臣.
97And then we've seen over the last 100 years, the keys to the White House are being Vice然后我们在过去100年里看到 白宫的钥匙是副手
98President, at least to the nomination.总统,至少提名。
99So this is going to be super interesting for us to follow, but also to show you that Republicans所以,这将会是超级有趣 我们跟踪, 但也告诉你,共和党
100do have more than one choice, even if that choice goes through President Trump.即使特朗普总统做出选择 也不止一个选择
101But if I had to look this week, like, okay, so Rubio is in the briefing room, launching但是如果这周我不得不看看 Rubio在简报室 启动
102his presidential campaign, going to meet with the Pope, which is great, like, he's Catholic,他的总统竞选,要去会见教皇, 这是伟大的,像,他是天主教徒,
103so is JD Vance, but he gets to be the one making a peace with the Pope.JD Vance也一样 但他会和教皇和好
104And Vance is in Iowa campaigning for the midterms in a brutal cycle, trying to talk about affordability.而万斯则在艾奥瓦州以残酷的循环进行中期竞选,试图谈论可负担性.
105That's a tough job assignment.这工作任务很艰难
106It's a tough environment out there.外面的环境很艰难
107Which platform would you rather have if you were potentially running for president?如果你有潜力竞选总统 你会选择哪个平台?
108I'd rather be Rubio this week.我本周宁当鲁比奥.
109The Secretary of State or Vice President thing, because it does ask the question, is he Thomas国务卿或副总统的事情,因为它确实问了问题,是他托马斯。
110Jefferson or is he Dan Quayle?杰斐逊还是丹·奎尔?
111Deep cuts.深减.
112So here was a little bit of the ruthless podcast on this back and forth between Rubio and Vance.这是鲁比奥和万斯之间 冷酷无情的播客
113This, of course, a group of Republican podcasters, now podcasters, but largely Hill aides actually这当然是一群共和党的播客, 现在的播客, 但主要是希尔的辅助
114come out of McConnell world that, you know, they've evolved.从麦康奈尔的世界里出来 他们已经进化了
115Now they're now they're able to talk like MAGA.现在他们可以像MAGA一样说话了.
116Let's see what they had to say.看看他们要说什么
117Are we going to pretend like that's not a presidential candidate?我们要假装这不是总统候选人吗?
118It sounds like a presidential candidate.听起来像是总统候选人
119Are we going to do that?我们要这样做吗?
120It's kind of hard to ignore at some point that this guy's becoming a thing that is larger在某个时候很难忽视这个家伙 变得更大
121than maybe even this administration had previously conceived of.可能甚至连这个政府 之前设想的。
122JD is going to have to work for it.JD必须为此而努力
123He's going to be very hard to beat.他会很难打败的
124But the reality is there's a race on.但现实是比赛正在进行
125What do you make of that?你觉得呢?
126Because they're the most popular Republican podcast around and speaks to both the old因为他们是最受欢迎的 共和党播客 和两个老
127world of the Republican Party and this new world of the Republican Party.共和党的世界 共和党的新世界
128What I make out of that is that they're saying the obvious thing that we're saying here.我从中得出的是,他们说的是我们在这里所说的显而易见的事情。
129We have two people within this administration that are thirsty and thirsty for the endorsement这个政府里有两个人 渴得要死
130and embrace of President Trump so they can become the Republican nominee.并拥抱特朗普总统 让他们成为共和党候选人
131It was interesting to me there that they suggested that Rubio has kind of expanded beyond what有趣的是,他们暗示鲁比奥 已经扩张到...
132anybody thought was possible, which is kind of the piece of this that I'm watching pretty任何人都认为是可能的, 这是这种片 我看着美丽的
133closely.靠近点
134Vice President Vance made his first trip to Iowa as vice president.副总统万斯作为副总统首次前往爱荷华州.
135At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted a video of an answer he gave同时,国务卿马可·鲁比奥张贴了一段他回答的视频。
136to a question when he was giving a briefing at the White House set to dramatic footage当他在白宫作简报时 问到一个问题
137and music.还有音乐
138It is meant as a celebration of America's 250th anniversary, but it reads like something这是庆祝美国成立二百五十周年 但它读起来像是
139else.别的
140Take a look.看看这个。
141My hope for America is what it's always been.我对美国的希望一直如此
142I think it's the hope I hope we all share.我认为这是希望,我希望我们都分享。
143We want it to continue to be the place where anyone from anywhere can achieve anything.我们希望它继续是任何地方的任何人能够取得任何成就的地方。
144Where you're not limited by the circumstances of your birth, by the color of your skin,在你不受出生环境,肤色的限制的地方
145by your ethnicity, but frankly, it's a place where you are able to overcome challenges老实说,这是你能克服挑战的地方
146and achieve your full potential.并实现你的全部潜力。
147I mean that would not be out of place on a New Hampshire or Iowa TV station.在新罕布什尔州或爱荷华州电视台里不会出事
148Secretary Rubio's briefing this week generated more buzz among the Republicans I know than鲁比奥部长本周的通报 在我认识的共和党人中引起了更多的轰动
149anything that's happened in the last year.去年发生的任何事
150He has the potential to keep the Republican base intact that President Trump got and bring他有潜力保持 共和党基础的完整 川普总统得到和带来
151back some of Trump's critics.支持一些特朗普的批评者。
152I will see if Secretary of the Vice President Vance has the same potential.我去看看副总统万斯的秘书是否有同样的潜力。
153I think Rubio demonstrated that this week, it's a long time, but I thought this was a我认为鲁比奥证明了这个星期, 这是一个很长的时间, 但我认为这是一个
154pretty important moment.相当重要的时刻
155What do you think?你觉得呢?
156Yeah, look, Rubio, you talk to people that are hardcore MAGA voters, I think more than听着,鲁比奥,你跟那些 硬派的MAGA选民说话,我想比
157anybody else in the administration, Rubio has outkicked his coverage based on the expectationsRubio根据预期 超越了他的报道
158for him, A, with that crowd and B, for the old world, norming Republicans who've always对于他,A,与人群和B, 为旧世界, 规范共和党人谁一直
159loved Rubio.喜欢鲁比奥。
160They're like, this guy is terrific.他们喜欢,这家伙是伟大的。
161So I agree with Brad on the buzz.所以我同意布拉德的意见
162My assumption is, and Rubio has said this, Vance and Rubio will not run against each我的假设是 鲁比奥说过 万斯和鲁比奥不会互相对抗
163other.其他费用。
164And so however this shakes out, and I still think it would be enormously difficult to所以,不管这摇动出来, 我仍然认为 这是非常困难的,
165take the nomination away from a sitting vice president if he wants to get it.如果现任副总统想得到提名,就取消提名。
166I don't know, ambition is a funny thing.我不知道,野心是一件有趣的事情。
167And if you see there's cracks in the fissure, you go for it because then you got to wait如果你看到裂缝里有裂缝,你就去,因为你必须等待
168four years to go for it again.4年了,再来一次
169That or eight, right.那还是八个,对
170That commercial should raise alarms in the Democratic Party.该广告应该引起民主党的警觉。
171Here's the thing.事情是这样的
172There's a long way between now and exploratory committees and then the actual November现在和探索委员会还有很长的路要走 然后是11月
173vote.投票。
174But what I will say is that what Democrats will need to do is to anchor Donald但我要说的是 民主党需要做的是 巩固唐纳德
175Trump to J.D.特朗普给J.D.
176Vance or Marco Rubio.万斯或马可·鲁比奥.
177And if things continue in this trajectory, that anchor might be too heavy.如果事情在轨迹上继续下去 那锚可能太重了
178I think it's going to be very hard for somebody who was a face of the Trump administration我想对于一个 面对特朗普政府的人来说 这很难
179to be successful in a general election in 2028 may get the Republican nomination.在2028年大选中成功,可能会获得共和党提名.
180Yeah, it's going to be very, very hard for them to be successful in a general election他们很难在大选中成功
181in 2028.(原始内容存档于2028年). In 2028.
182Horace, what do you think?贺拉斯,你觉得呢?
183Where do you think the ledger is right now between Vance and Rubio?你觉得目前万斯和鲁比奥之间的账本在哪?
184The Republican Party, like the Democrats, often let the former vice president have the共和党和民主党一样,经常让前副总统拥有
185first shot when that position becomes open for president.当总统职位被打开时第一枪
186In this particular case, the 80 million voters for Donald Trump, two thirds of whom are在这个具体案例中,唐纳德·特朗普的8000万选民,其中三分之二是
187Republicans, are going to have to be sold on who it is that best reflects their values共和党人, 将不得不出售 谁才是最能反映他们的价值观
188and their views.和他们的观点。
189And that's going to decide it.然则决之.
190And that's good because competition is always.这是很好的,因为竞争总是。
191Are you suggesting that they're not going to take Vance as the default, just hook, line你是说他们不会把万斯当成默认的 只是钩子 线
192and sinker?和沉没?
193I think that there's likely going to be a real competition.我认为这有可能是真正的竞争
194What do you think?你觉得呢?
195I mean, Rubio has really been trying to raise his profile lately.鲁比奥最近真的想提升他的知名度
196And frankly, I mean, it seems like Vance has been doing the opposite just because the war,坦率地说,我的意思是, 似乎万斯一直在做相反的 只是因为战争,
197for example, is really not one of his core issues.例如,实际上不是他的核心问题之一。
198I think Trump loves when people climb over each other to get to him.我觉得特朗普喜欢别人爬过对方去接近他.
199I think that's what you're looking at right now.我认为这就是你现在看到的。
200I also think I can't imagine Rubio subsuming to Vance.我也认为我无法想象鲁比奥从属于万斯
201I just can't imagine Rubio being a VP under Vance.我只是无法想象鲁比奥是万斯手下的副总统
202I just don't get it.我只是不明白这一点。
203I just don't think it's going to happen.我只是不认为它会发生。
204I really think it's going to be Rubio and Don Jr. or something like that.我真的觉得会是鲁比奥和小唐之类的
205I think you're going to have something a little bit different.我想你们会有点不同
206I think there's a lot going on behind the scenes.我认为幕后发生了很多事情.
207Like the two top candidates or a vice president?像两个顶级候选人还是副总统?
208I think it might be president and VP.我想可能是总统和副总统
209I think Don Jr. is really eyeing this really hard, you know, and, you know, when I was我觉得小唐真的 看着这真的很难, 你知道,你知道, 当我是
210at the 2020 Republican convention, I actually thought I was going to be Ivanka, right, when在2020年共和党大会上, 我实际上认为我会是伊万卡,对,当
211she was actually talking about that, right.她其实是在说这个,对吗?
212And I don't even know if that's still going to be Ivanka.我甚至不知道那是否还是伊万卡
213But I do believe I think that I don't think Vance will be the nominee.但我确实认为我不认为万斯是提名人
214I'm just going to put it out there right now.我现在就把它放出来
215I'm personally shocked that the most charismatic person in America, J.D.我个人震惊于美国最有魅力的人J. D.
216Vance, is not on everybody's万斯,不是每个人的
217front running list to be the president of the United States.前排名单是美国总统
218I mean, the guy who famously said, if I have to lie to convince people to do what I want,我的意思是,那个有名的说, 如果我要骗人 说服人们做我想做的事,
219then I'm just going to do it about the cats and dogs thing.然后,我要做它 关于猫和狗的事情。
220There's very little compelling about J.D.J. D. 没有什么说服力
221Vance.万斯(原变种).
222And I've always believed that is part of why Donald Trump chose him as his vice president.我一直相信这是唐纳德·特朗普选择他担任副总统的原因之一.
223I think J.D.我觉得J. D.
224Vance is Peter Thiel's boy.万斯是彼得·蒂尔的儿子.
225And I think that Peter Thiel is pretty much owning half the government at this point.我认为彼得·提尔现在几乎拥有 一半的政府。
226And I think if Peter Thiel wants J.D.我想如果彼得・提尔想要J. D.
227Vance in that position, he'll be in that position.万斯在那个位置,他会在那个位置。
228I think we have to watch out for Tucker Carlson.我认为我们必须小心塔克・卡尔森。
229I think he's the one that wants to run.我想他就是那个想逃跑的人
230Tucker Carlson.塔克・卡尔森
231Tucker, yeah.塔克,没错。
232I think he's the heir apparent.我觉得他是继承人
233So if you look at the two of the last three presidents, who would have thought that Barack所以,如果你看看前三位总统中的两位, 谁会想到巴拉克
234Obama was going to be president?奥巴马要当总统?
235And who would have ever thought that Donald Trump was going to be president?谁会想到唐纳德·特朗普会成为总统?
236So people are going to be ready, and I'm a big Donald Trump fan, I've worked with them,因此,人们会准备好, 而我是一个大唐纳德特朗普的粉丝, 我与他们合作,
237but probably people are going to be ready for a bit of a change after eight years of但也许人们会准备好 在8年之后有所改变
238Trump.特朗普报.
239Although, Abby, if you look at what's happening in these primaries around the country, whoeverAbby 如果你看看 全国各地的初选结果
240Donald Trump is tapping on the shoulder for these races is winning them.唐纳德·特朗普在拍肩部 因为这些比赛正在赢得胜利
241So he has a tremendous impact on who was winning.所以他对谁赢了有很大的影响。
242But, you know, as you know, sometimes he chickens out and he's like, I like them both.但是,你知道,你知道, 有时他胆小了,他喜欢,我喜欢他们两个。
243And that's part of the problem is that if you don't get the clear cut, you know, endorsement,这就是问题的一部分 如果你没有得到明确的削减, 你知道,背书,
244sometimes you're just out of luck.有时候你只是运气不好。
245Yeah, but look at Indiana where he took out a bunch of incumbent Republicans.是的,但看看印第安纳州 他干掉了一群在职的共和党人
246Right.对
247That's because he hated them and wanted them out of office.那是因为他讨厌他们,希望他们离职.
248But it's different when he's not sure where the winds are blowing, sometimes he just doesn't但是,当他不知道 风在哪里吹,有时他只是不
249make a decision.做出一个决定。
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