法里德观点：川普对制造业回流有什么误解？ | 2025.3.

法里德观点：川普对制造业回流有什么误解？ | 2025.3.24 | 美剧级别字幕

发布于 2025-03-24 · 时长 6:16

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:01	Here's my take.	这是我的选择
0:03	At the heart of the Trump administration's policies is one overarching goal.	特朗普政府政策的核心是一个总目标.
0:08	In JD Vance's words from a speech this week, it is to stage the great American manufacturing	用本周JD Vance的演讲来说就是演美国制造
0:14	comeback.	回来
0:16	Trump believes that the key to transforming America along the lines he wants, economically,	特朗普认为,按照他想要的路线改造美国的关键,在经济上,
0:21	socially and politically, is to revive the factories and foundries across this country.	社会上和政治上是要重振全国的工厂和铸造厂
0:26	Unfortunately, not only is this highly unlikely to happen, but the efforts to move in this	不幸的是,不仅这种情况极不可能发生,而且努力推进这项工作。
0:32	direction will be costly and damaging for Americans.	航向对美国人来说是昂贵和有害的。
0:36	The idea that America should make more things is a seductive one.	美国应该制造更多东西的想法是诱人的.
0:40	We all think of a rich and powerful country as one with huge factories belching smoke,	我们都认为一个富有强大的国家是一个拥有巨大工厂的烟雾的国家

展开字幕全文（81 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Here's my take.	这是我的选择
2	At the heart of the Trump administration's policies is one overarching goal.	特朗普政府政策的核心是一个总目标.
3	In JD Vance's words from a speech this week, it is to stage the great American manufacturing	用本周JD Vance的演讲来说就是演美国制造
4	comeback.	回来
5	Trump believes that the key to transforming America along the lines he wants, economically,	特朗普认为,按照他想要的路线改造美国的关键,在经济上,
6	socially and politically, is to revive the factories and foundries across this country.	社会上和政治上是要重振全国的工厂和铸造厂
7	Unfortunately, not only is this highly unlikely to happen, but the efforts to move in this	不幸的是,不仅这种情况极不可能发生,而且努力推进这项工作。
8	direction will be costly and damaging for Americans.	航向对美国人来说是昂贵和有害的。
9	The idea that America should make more things is a seductive one.	美国应该制造更多东西的想法是诱人的.
10	We all think of a rich and powerful country as one with huge factories belching smoke,	我们都认为一个富有强大的国家是一个拥有巨大工厂的烟雾的国家
11	churning out stuff and selling it to the world.	卖东西给全世界
12	It's deeply imprinted in our minds, but it is an image of the past, not the future.	它深深印在我们的思想中,但它是一个过去的形象,而不是未来.
13	The most advanced economies in the world today are almost all dominated by services.	当今世界最发达的经济体几乎都以服务业为主。
14	Services account for the vast majority of jobs in the world's richest industrialized	服务业占世界工业化最富者就业的绝大多数
15	countries.	国家。
16	In America, services account for over 80% of all non-farm jobs.	在美国,服务业占所有非农活的80%以上.
17	Manufacturing is less than 10%.	制造业不足10%。
18	America's distinctive exports to the world are software and software services, entertainment,	美国对世界的特色出口是软件和软件服务,娱乐,
19	financial services and other such intangible things.	金融服务和其他这类无形事物。
20	And in these, the United States runs not a trade deficit, but a surplus with the rest	而在其中,美国不是贸易逆差而是与其余的顺差
21	of the world.	这个世界。
22	Why this transformation?	为什么是这种转变?
23	Because as people get richer and better educated, they spend more money on services and not	因为随着人们的富裕和受教育程度的提高, 他们花费更多的钱在服务而不是
24	goods.	货物。
25	In 1960, American consumers allotted more than 50% of their consumption spending to	1960年,美国消费者将其消费支出的50%以上分配给美国消费者。
26	goods.	货物。
27	By 2010, it was only 33%.	到2010年,这一比例仅为33%.
28	And the money for companies is not in goods, but services.	而公司的钱不是商品而是服务。
29	A sneaker may cost $25 or $30 to make.	运动鞋要花25美元或30美元。
30	The value then is in the design, marketing and sales that allows you to sell it for $100.	那么价值在于设计,营销和销售让你可以卖100美元。
31	What part of this product would you rather your workers were involved in?	你希望你的工人参与其中吗?
32	Over the last 40 or 50 years, manufacturing as a share of the total economy and manufacturing	在过去的40年或50年中,制造业占整个经济和制造业的份额
33	jobs as a share of total jobs have both steadily declined in almost all advanced industrial	在几乎所有先进的工业领域,就业岗位在总就业岗位中的比例都稳步下降。
34	countries.	国家。
35	American manufacturing jobs were about 25% in 1973.	1973年美国制造业的就业机会约为25%.
36	Today there are around 8%.	今天大约有8%。
37	You see very similar declines in the UK, Canada and even places that were traditionally manufacturing	英国、加拿大甚至传统制造业的衰落
38	strongholds like Germany, France and Japan.	德国、法国和日本等据点。
39	Japan is particularly important as a case study because it did pretty much everything	日本作为一个案例研究尤为重要,因为它几乎做了一切
40	that Donald Trump wishes that America had done over the last 60 years.	唐纳德·特朗普希望美国在过去60年中所做的一切
41	It shielded its domestic market from foreign goods through high tariffs and other barriers.	它通过高关税和其他壁垒来保护国内市场免受外国商品的影响。
42	The government pursued aggressive industrial policy, society venerated manufacturing and	政府奉行积极的工业政策,社会上崇尚制造业,
43	the educational system prized technical skills and shop work.	教育系统重视技术技能和商店工作。
44	And yet, manufacturing declined steadily in Japan.	然而,日本的制造业却稳步下降。
45	It's actually not right to say and yet.	这其实是不正确的说和现在。
46	One could easily make the case that many Japanese industries declined because of these policies.	人们可以轻而易举地说明,许多日本工业由于这些政策而衰落。
47	Government bureaucrats favored certain sectors like VHS tape recorders and Walkman-style	政府官僚偏爱某些部门,如VHS录音机和随身听式
48	audio players and missed the technological shifts that rendered them obsolete.	音频播放器和错过了技术的转变使得它们过时。
49	Huge levels of corruption within the ruling elites ensured that firms were favored for	统治精英阶层内部严重腐败,确保了公司受到偏爱。
50	political reasons.	政治原因。
51	Most important, the tariffs and other barriers kept Japanese companies shielded from competition.	最重要的是,关税和其他壁垒使日本公司免于竞争。
52	Those decisions and others led Japan, far from dominating the world economically as	这些决定和其他决定使日本远远没有在经济上统治世界,因为
53	Donald Trump had warned about in the 1980s, to enter into a decades-long stagnation that	唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)曾在20世纪80年代警告过要进入长达数十年的停滞状态。
54	it has barely now emerged from.	它现在还没有出现。
55	Countries like Japan and Germany that tried hard to boost their manufacturing sectors	日本和德国等努力推动制造业的国家
56	and countries like France and Italy that protected their workers through tight labor laws all	以及法国和意大利等通过严格的劳动法保护工人的国家
57	saw their manufacturing decline.	他们的制造业下降。
58	But they also missed out on the growing service sector that now dominates the world.	但它们也忽略了目前主宰世界的不断增长的服务部门。
59	Germany, the world's third largest economy, has almost no great companies in the digital	德国是世界第三大经济体在数字领域几乎没有大公司
60	world unless you count one over 50-year-old second-tier software firm, SAP.	除非你能算出一个50年以上的二级软件公司 SAP
61	America was more open and thus more innovative.	美国更加开放,因此更具创新性。
62	As the head of the WTO Ngozi Okonjo Uweala has said, America has quietly become the dominant	正如世贸组织负责人Ngozi Okonjo Uweala所说,美国已悄悄地成为主导者。
63	player in the service economy, generating $1 trillion of services that it exports.	在服务经济中发挥作用,产生1万亿美元其出口的服务。
64	She points out that professional and business service jobs pay an average of $43.60 per	她指出,专业和企业服务岗位平均每人支付43.60美元。
65	in the U.S. compared to just $34.83 for the average manufacturing job.	在美国,平均制造业工作只有34.83美元。
66	So forget the misty nostalgia about manufacturing.	所以,忘记关于制造的迷信怀念。
67	The hard reality is that services is the fastest growing sector in the world economy, generating	困难的现实是,服务业是世界经济中增长最快的部门,产生
68	higher profits and good jobs.	高利润和好工作。
69	The effort to revive manufacturing via protectionism is an effort to defy basic economics.	通过保护主义恢复制造业的努力是藐视基本经济学的努力。
70	In a free market, people and countries are forced to specialize, moving to those things	在一个自由市场里,人们和国家被迫专门化,转向那些东西
71	they can do best.	他们能做的最好。
72	I quoted JD Vance earlier from a speech he gave at the American Dynamism Summit.	我早些时候引用了万斯博士在美国Dynamism峰会上的讲话。
73	In it he explained that the Trump administration would use tariffs to protect domestic industries,	他在其中解释说,特朗普政府会使用关税来保护国内产业,
74	but he promised them lots of tax breaks and government support to innovate.	但他答应给他们很多减税和政府支持创新
75	But the long history of capitalism tells us that countries and companies don't innovate	但资本主义的悠久历史告诉我们,国家和公司不创新
76	because of tax credits and depreciation.	因为税收抵减和折旧。
77	They do so because of competition.	他们这样做是因为竞争。
78	That is why markets work.	这就是为什么市场运作。
79	They force efficiency.	他们强迫效率。
80	If you shield American companies and workers from competition, you will get not dynamism,	如果你保护美国公司和工人免受竞争, 你就不会有活力,
81	but stagnation.	但停滞不前。

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