《经济学人》中国能否掌控这场AI革命 | 人工智能将考验各国
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:02 | Leaders | 领导人 |
| 0:06 | Models and diffusion | 模型和传播 |
| 0:09 | Lessons from China | 中国的经验教训 |
| 0:11 | AI will test society's capacity to reinvent themselves. | AI将测试社会自我改造的能力. |
| 0:17 | China will not find it easy. | 中国不会发现它很容易。 |
| 0:20 | Just as frontier artificial intelligence models are benchmarked against each other, | 正如前沿人工智能模型相互参照, |
| 0:26 | so AI will itself benchmark the rival political systems of America and China. | 因此,AI本身将衡量美国和中国的对立政治制度。 |
| 0:33 | The technology will test which is better at creating AI tools and diffusing them through the economy, | 该技术将测试 更好地创建AI工具 并通过经济传播, |
| 0:41 | and that will in turn depend partly on their very different ideas of how societies should be run. | 而这又将部分地取决于他们对如何管理社会的不同想法。 |
| 0:49 | Even in a field changing as rapidly as AI, the results of that contest may not become clear for some years. | 即使在像AI那样迅速变化的领域,这场比赛的结果在几年里可能并不明确. |
展开字幕全文（85 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leaders | 领导人 |
| 2 | Models and diffusion | 模型和传播 |
| 3 | Lessons from China | 中国的经验教训 |
| 4 | AI will test society's capacity to reinvent themselves. | AI将测试社会自我改造的能力. |
| 5 | China will not find it easy. | 中国不会发现它很容易。 |
| 6 | Just as frontier artificial intelligence models are benchmarked against each other, | 正如前沿人工智能模型相互参照, |
| 7 | so AI will itself benchmark the rival political systems of America and China. | 因此,AI本身将衡量美国和中国的对立政治制度。 |
| 8 | The technology will test which is better at creating AI tools and diffusing them through the economy, | 该技术将测试 更好地创建AI工具 并通过经济传播, |
| 9 | and that will in turn depend partly on their very different ideas of how societies should be run. | 而这又将部分地取决于他们对如何管理社会的不同想法。 |
| 10 | Even in a field changing as rapidly as AI, the results of that contest may not become clear for some years. | 即使在像AI那样迅速变化的领域,这场比赛的结果在几年里可能并不明确. |
| 11 | But as we report from inside China, the country is already adopting AI fast, | 但正如我们从中国内部报告的那样, 这个国家已经快速地采用了AI, |
| 12 | and its government is preparing for the dramatic economic and social change this heralds. | 政府正准备迎接这个预言的巨大的经济和社会变革。 |
| 13 | As an autocracy, China has some advantages in harnessing the 21st century's most promising technology. | 作为一个专制国家,中国在利用21世纪最有前途的技术方面有一些优势. |
| 14 | It also has plenty of problems. | 它还有许多问题。 |
| 15 | Start with the calibre of China's models. | 从中国型号的口径开始. |
| 16 | The common perception is that they are cheap, and that even the best persistently lag behind America's. | 普遍的看法是,它们价格低廉,甚至最古老的国家也一直落后于美国。 |
| 17 | In fact, the two countries' AI models are converging. | 事实上,两国的AI模式正在趋同. |
| 18 | Innovative Chinese models are getting bigger and cleverer. | 创新的中国模式日益壮大和聪明. |
| 19 | Within the past few weeks, Chinese labs have released Quen 3.8 Max and Kimi K3, | 在过去几周内,中国实验室发布了3.8 Max 和 Kimi K3, |
| 20 | 这几乎与美国最先进的AI相匹配,如Anthropix Fable 5. | |
| 21 | Chinese models will be just as likely to break loose from their test beds as American ones. | 中国模特儿会像美国模特儿一样从试验床上松绑。 |
| 22 | Although Chinese models are cheaper, American models are often better value. | 虽然中国模型比较便宜,但美国模型往往价值更高. |
| 23 | Artificial analysis, an American firm, finds that for most trade-offs between cost and intelligence, | 人工分析,一家美国公司,发现 对于大多数权衡成本和智能, |
| 24 | an American model outperforms Chinese ones. | 一种美国模式的效绩优于中国模式。 |
| 25 | The convergence is likely to continue. | 这种趋同很可能继续下去。 |
| 26 | Although China is building only a tenth as much data centre capacity as America, | 虽然中国的数据中心容量只有美国的十分之一 |
| 27 | that deficit is unlikely to last. | 赤字不可能持续。 |
| 28 | As a semi-planned economy, it is good at creating infrastructure. | 作为一个半计划经济,它善于建立基础设施。 |
| 29 | While American opinion turns against data centres, | 虽然美国舆论反对数据中心, |
| 30 | Southeast Asia is hosting huge Chinese facilities. | 东南亚主办大型中国设施. |
| 31 | China's open weight models can run on anyone's servers, | 中国的开放重量模型可以运行在任何人的服务器上, |
| 32 | meaning that compute is less of a problem than the headline numbers suggest. | 意思是计算比头条数字显示的问题要小。 |
| 33 | China also has almost three times as much installed electricity generating capacity as America, | 中国的发电能力几乎是美国的三倍 |
| 34 | and its lead is growing. | 它的领先地位在增长 |
| 35 | China is learning to cope with sanctions. | 中国正在学习应对制裁。 |
| 36 | It smuggles in cutting-edge Nvidia chips and rents them in foreign data centres. | 它走私尖端的Nvidia芯片,并在外国数据中心出租. |
| 37 | And Huawei, its best chip designer, is rapidly increasing the output of its inferior chips. | 而其最好的芯片设计师华伟则在迅速增加其劣质芯片的输出. |
| 38 | Chinese-made lithography tools are now using deep UV light to print chips, | 中国制造的石刻工具 现在使用深紫外光来打印芯片 |
| 39 | though the best technology using extreme UV remains out of reach. | 虽然使用极端紫外线的最佳技术仍然无法达到。 |
| 40 | Model building is only half the story. | 模型建筑只是故事的一半. |
| 41 | To make the economy dynamic, AI must also be deployed, the focus of Chinese AI policy. | 为了使经济充满活力,也必须部署AI,即中国AI政策的焦点. |
| 42 | For as long as China was behind America in model making, | 只要中国在模特制作方面落后于美国 |
| 43 | leaders saw diffusion as the best way to compete. | 领导人认为传播是竞争的最佳方式。 |
| 44 | But they may also believe that, as with other broad technologies such as electricity, | 但他们也可能认为,像其他广泛的技术,如电力, |
| 45 | adoption brings greater rewards than discovery. | 收养带来的回报大于发现。 |
| 46 | China's working age population is due to shrink by 25% by 2050. | 中国劳动适龄人口到2050年应缩小25%. |
| 47 | For machines to replace people requires diffusion too. | 机器取代人也需要扩散 |
| 48 | So far the use of AI has yet to show up in the economic statistics of either America or China. | 迄今为止,AI的使用还没有出现在美国或中国的经济统计中. |
| 49 | But change in some industries has already been sweeping. | 但是,一些行业的变化已经十分普遍。 |
| 50 | AI-assisted lorries will need 30% fewer drivers, | 人工智能辅助卡车需要减少30%的司机, |
| 51 | going by one large firm's experience as crews slim from two drivers to one and from four to three. | 一个大公司的经验是 机组人员从两个司机减到一个 从四个到三个 |
| 52 | AI was used to generate 95% of the 128,000 wildly popular one- or two-minute-long micro-dramas | 人工智能用于生成128,000个野生流行的一两分钟的微型戏剧中的95% |
| 53 | released in the first quarter of 2026, replacing many actors and film crews. | 2026年第一季度发行,取代了许多演员和电影摄制组. |
| 54 | China is also rapidly increasing the use of robots. | 中国也在迅速增加机器人的使用. |
| 55 | In June, leaders told local governments and state-owned enterprises | 6月,领导人告诉地方政府和国有企业 |
| 56 | to have 10,000 humanoid robots doing real work by the end of 2026. | 到2026年底,有1万个人造机器人做真正的工作。 |
| 57 | Morgan Stanley, a bank, expects humanoid sales in China to reach 446,000 by 2030, nine times this year's total. | Morgan Stanley是一家银行,预计到2030年中国人造品销售量将达到44.6万,是今年的9倍. |
| 58 | Workers are being paid to train robots in huge warehouses by repeatedly folding clothes and sorting and stacking objects. | 工人通过反复折叠衣服,分拣和堆放物品,在庞大的仓库里接受机器人训练的薪水. |
| 59 | China has a lower share of white-collar workers than America, | 中国的白领工人比例低于美国 |
| 60 | so AI is likely to have the greatest effect in consumer markets and blue-collar work. | 因此,AI在消费市场和蓝领工作上可能具有最大的影响. |
| 61 | That could easily lead to discontent. | 这很容易导致不满。 |
| 62 | Youth unemployment is already around 15% and over 300 million people work in the gig economy. | 青年失业率已达15%左右,超过3亿人在演出经济中工作。 |
| 63 | Job destruction could be much faster than China's demographic decline. | 就业机会的破坏可能比中国人口减少快得多。 |
| 64 | You might think that the Communist Party's grip on power is so strong that it can ignore the blowback. | 你可能会认为,共产党对权力的控制是如此的强大,以至于可以忽略打击. |
| 65 | However, China's fear being brittle. | 然而,中国的恐惧是脆弱的. |
| 66 | Although Chinese firms want to roll out AI fast, the government will be desperate to avoid instability. | 虽然中国企业希望迅速推出AI,但政府将绝望地避免不稳定. |
| 67 | That is why AI will be a test of the system and why China's options are limited. | 因此AI将成为对这个制度的考验,也是中国选择有限的原因. |
| 68 | As in America, there is plenty of talk about retraining. | 在美国,关于再培训的话题很多。 |
| 69 | However, retraining has a poor record and even the most successful countries like Denmark and Singapore | 然而,再培训的记录很差,甚至是丹麦和新加坡等最成功的国家。 |
| 70 | struggle to equip workers for entirely new careers. | 努力为工人提供全新的职业 |
| 71 | There is no reason to think that China will be any more successful, especially as it already has too many graduates. | 没有理由认为中国会更成功,特别是因为它已经拥有过多的毕业生. |
| 72 | Prominent economists and advisors suggest extending the social contract by, say, taxing AI firms or creating a universal basic income. | 知名经济学家和顾问建议通过向AI公司征税或创造普遍的基本收入来延长社会契约。 |
| 73 | Their work has appeared in party journals, an official expression of interest. | 他们的作品出现在党刊上,正式表示兴趣. |
| 74 | But President Xi Jinping has long been against handouts, saying they can lead to laziness. | 但习近平主席长期反对施舍,称施舍会导致懒惰. |
| 75 | Political leaders are pressing companies to redeploy staff rather than sack them. | 政治领导人正在迫使公司重新部署工作人员,而不是解雇他们。 |
| 76 | They may also ask state-owned companies to mop up surplus labour. | 他们还可以要求国有公司清除剩余劳动力。 |
| 77 | Yet although that is politically possible, it will cancel out some of the benefits of rapid diffusion at a time when domestic growth is already anemic. | 然而,虽然这在政治上是可能的,但当国内增长已经无力时,这将消除迅速扩散的一些好处。 |
| 78 | So the government may improvise, letting AI rip until there is trouble when it will step in. | 所以政府可能会即兴行动,让AI撕裂,直到它介入时有麻烦. |
| 79 | That is what happened with tutoring and gaming, industries thrown into confusion overnight when the party decided that they were causing too much harm. | 这就是在辅导和游戏中发生的情况,当党决定造成太多伤害时,工业一夜之间陷入混乱。 |
| 80 | Cautious officials recently slowed robotaxi experiments after more than 100 malfunctioned in Wuhan, leaving passengers stranded. | 武汉发生100多起故障后,机车官员最近减缓了机器人轴实验,使乘客搁浅. |
| 81 | However, stop-start AI may impair the ability to innovate. | 然而,停止启动AI可能会损害创新能力. |
| 82 | If so, China's leaders may have to balance the risk of social instability with the risk of falling behind America. | 如果是这样,中国领导人可能必须平衡社会不稳定的风险和落后于美国的风险. |
| 83 | AI poses similar challenges to America and China. | 大赦国际对美国和中国提出了类似的挑战。 |
| 84 | Both societies will have to reinvent themselves. | 这两个社会都必须自我改造。 |
| 85 | That is something democracies tend to find easier than dictatorships. | 民主往往比独裁政权更容易找到这一点。 |
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