【剑桥辩论】北约已不再适应当今世界？[A2]

发布于 2026-09-23 · 时长 1:18:01

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:03	Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cambridge Union for our fourth and	晚上好,女士们,先生们欢迎来到剑桥联盟我们的第四和
0:11	final debate before our quiet period.	在我们平静时期之前的最后辩论。
0:14	Thank you so much for showing up in the midst of	非常感谢你出现在我身边
0:17	exam pressures, I'm sure.	考试压力,我敢肯定。
0:19	Before we get into the debate this evening, I'm going to run	在今晚辩论之前,我要跑
0:21	for a quick round of announcements as well as our house rules and the format this evening.	以及我们家的规则和形式
0:27	So our first house rule, and pretty much the only one, is please no photography or filming	所以,我们的第一个房子规则, 几乎是唯一的, 是请不要摄影或拍摄
0:33	during the debate.	辩论期间。
0:33	We have a professional team who are completely on that, please let	我们有一个专业团队完全在其中,请让我们
0:37	them get on with their jobs.	他们继续工作

展开字幕全文（1063 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cambridge Union for our fourth and	晚上好,女士们,先生们欢迎来到剑桥联盟我们的第四和
2	final debate before our quiet period.	在我们平静时期之前的最后辩论。
3	Thank you so much for showing up in the midst of	非常感谢你出现在我身边
4	exam pressures, I'm sure.	考试压力,我敢肯定。
5	Before we get into the debate this evening, I'm going to run	在今晚辩论之前,我要跑
6	for a quick round of announcements as well as our house rules and the format this evening.	以及我们家的规则和形式
7	So our first house rule, and pretty much the only one, is please no photography or filming	所以,我们的第一个房子规则, 几乎是唯一的, 是请不要摄影或拍摄
8	during the debate.	辩论期间。
9	We have a professional team who are completely on that, please let	我们有一个专业团队完全在其中,请让我们
10	them get on with their jobs.	他们继续工作
11	In terms of announcements, this is our final event before quiet period,	在公告方面这是我们在安静时期前的最后一件事
12	but after we leave quiet period, we have two speaker events, firstly with James Natchdway	但是,在我们离开安静的时期后, 我们有两个演讲者活动, 首先与詹姆斯·纳奇德韦
13	and secondly with Lord Neuberger, and we will be having our final debate of this term, our	接下来是Neuberger勋爵, 我们将进行这个任期的最后辩论。
14	presidential debate on the motion this house believes Margaret Thatcher liberated the proletariat	总统关于动议的辩论本院认为玛格丽特·撒切尔解放了无产阶级
15	on the 18th of June.	6月18号
16	Now, the way this is going to work this evening is we will start	现在,我们今晚的工作方式就是开始
17	with a ten minute proposition speech from our first paper speaker, we'll then move to	用我们第一位纸质演说家的10分钟提议发言,我们然后转到
18	a ten minute opposition speech, we'll take a round of floor speeches, these are sort	10分钟的反对演说,我们来做一圈的演讲, 这些是排序的
19	of two to three minute speeches made by members in proposition, opposition and abstention	成员以提议、反对和弃权方式所作的发言
20	of the motion, we'll move back to a second round of paper speakers before another round	接下来是第二轮纸质演讲人
21	of floor speeches, and then we will close the night with our third and final round of	然后我们结束今晚的第三轮也是最后一轮
22	paper speakers.	讲纸机。
23	Now, as a member, it's your right to raise points of information during	现在,作为一个成员,这是你的权利提出点信息,期间
24	speeches, but I ask that these are kept short, sort of ten to fifteen seconds, they are not	演讲,但我要求这些保持短, 大约10到15秒,它们不是
25	an opportunity to make a speech, if you want to do that, please use the floor speeches,	如果你愿意的话,请使用发言,
26	and they need to be framed as a question or a challenge to what the speaker is saying.	并且需要把它们当作一个问题或对发言者所说的话提出质疑。
27	Our floor speech prize tonight is a £50 voucher at Cambridge's finest dining establishment,	我们今晚的演讲奖是剑桥最好的餐厅50英镑的优惠券
28	The Orator, so if you are looking to win that, do make sure to raise your hand in that section	所以,如果你想要赢得这个奖项, 一定要举起手来
29	of the evening.	晚间。
30	So, without further ado, the motion before the house this evening is this	所以,不用再多说,今晚在房子前的动议就是这个
31	house believes NATO is unfit for the world today, and opening the case in proposition	豪斯认为北约不适合当今世界,
32	of the motion is Dr Anthony Stokes, LVO OBE.	这是安东尼・斯托克斯博士,LVO OBE。
33	Anthony is a former British ambassador with	安东尼是前英国大使
34	roles including British ambassador in Hanoi and Havana, and ambassador for climate change.	包括英国驻河内和哈瓦那大使和气候变化大使。
35	He writes and speaks on diplomacy and practice and the growing intersection of technology	他写和讲了外交和实践以及技术的日益交汇
36	and international relations.	国际关系。
37	Anthony, you have the ears of the house.	安东尼,你有房子的耳朵。
38	Thank you so much Mr President, thank you for your invitation, and thank you for your	非常感谢主席先生,谢谢你的邀请,并感谢您的邀请。
39	在LinkedIn上公布民调,
40	Your	你们
41	debates are more important than ever at a time of social media polarisation.	在社交媒体两极分化之际,辩论比以往任何时候都更加重要。
42	Thank you	谢谢
43	for everything that you do.	为你所做的一切
44	25 years ago, I'm standing on a hill 23 miles north of	25年前,我站在北边23英里的山上
45	Seoul.	首尔.
46	I'm with a group of British Korean war veterans then in their 70s.	我和一群70多岁的英国朝鲜退伍军人在一起
47	They're telling	他们告诉我
48	me the story of the first battalion of the Gloucester regiment who held that hill against	格洛斯特军团第一营的故事
49	a Chinese advance, isolated, heavily outnumbered, and they told me how it felt to be looking	一个中国进步,孤立, 人数大大超过, 他们告诉我它是什么感觉
50	out across the Imjin valley towards North Korea to see a huge mass of soldiers, fixed	穿过伊姆金河谷朝朝鲜飞去看到大批士兵
51	bayonets, stick grenades in hand, advancing up the slope.	刺刀手持手持手榴弹向山坡推进
52	They told me of their brigade	他们告诉我他们的旅
53	commander on the radio to his American superior officer back at base saying, things are a	指挥员在无线电中呼叫基地的美国高级军官说,
54	bit sticky sir.	有点粘
55	The Americans heard were holding on.	美国人听说他们坚持住
56	The Gloucesters meant we're being overrun.	Gloucester一家意味着我们被征服了
57	No reinforcements came, no support for withdrawal, and although the Gloucesters slowed the Chinese	虽然格洛斯特人让中国人减慢了速度
58	advance, and some say they saved Seoul, of 600 men only 40 returned.	有人说他们救回了汉城只有40人回来了
59	The rest of the	其余部分
60	troops were captured or killed.	部队被俘或杀害。
61	The Korean war was a wake-up call.	朝鲜战争惊醒.
62	NATO immediately saw	北约立即看到
63	that the charter, although vital, was not enough.	宪章虽然重要,但还不够。
64	Only then did NATO build the military	只有那时北约才建立军队
65	structures, the architecture, to make Article 5 credible in the real world.	使第5条在现实世界中可信。
66	And it was credible	这是可信的
67	in 2008, I was posted to Riga in Latvia, and I saw how the Baltic states, who'd lived under	2008年,我被派往拉脱维亚的里加, 我看到了波罗的海国家是如何生活
68	Soviet occupation for almost 50 years, looked to NATO as their guarantee of survival.	苏联占领了近50年,视北约为他们生存的保障.
69	But	不过
70	in that same year, 2008, NATO made a declaration without architecture.	同年,2008年,北约发表了一项没有架构的声明。
71	Ukraine will become	乌克兰将成为
72	a member.	a 成员。
73	Declaration without architecture has consequences.	没有架构的宣言会产生后果。
74	That is the lesson of history.	这是历史的教训。
75	Now look at today.	现在看看今天。
76	Look at what NATO says it's defending us, look at what NATO says	看看北约说它要保护我们看看北约说些什么
77	it's defending today.	它今天在辩护
78	It's in Article 6, Article 6, NATO defends the forces, vessels, or aircraft	第6条,北约保卫部队、船只或飞机
79	of any of the parties in or over certain territories in Europe or in North America from armed attack.	在欧洲或北美某些领土上或上空的任何一方受到武装攻击。
80	Power grids, financial systems, satellite communications, they don't fit so cleanly.	电网,财经系统,卫星通信,不适宜如此干净.
81	A disinformation campaign designed to destabilise the country's elections, that doesn't fit	一场旨在破坏国家选举稳定的造谣运动,
82	all.	都一样
83	AI enabled warfare, that's invisible to the treaty.	AI允许战争,这是条约所看不见的。
84	If you can degrade critical	如果你能降低临界值
85	national infrastructure, manipulate elections, corrode alliance cohesion through disinformation,	国家基础设施,操纵选举,通过造谣破坏联盟凝聚力,
86	destabilise the digital networks on which we depend, all without crossing a border,	破坏我们赖以生存的数字网络的稳定,所有网络都不跨越边界,
87	do you trigger Article 5?	你触发第五条吗?
88	The answer is, nobody knows.	答案是没人知道
89	And our adversaries know that nobody	我们的对手知道没有人
90	knows.	知见.
91	What is NATO doing to address this gap?	北约正在做些什么来弥补这一差距?
92	Declarations without architecture, summit	无结构宣言、首脑会议
93	declarations.	声明。
94	First in Prague in 2002, first time that cyber was mentioned.	2002年第一次在布拉格,第一次提到这个网络.
95	Then what did	那又怎样
96	they say in Cardiff?	他们用卡迪夫语说?
97	Cyber attacks can reach a threshold triggering Article 5.	网络攻击可达到触发第五条的门槛。
98	No definition	无定义
99	of what that threshold is.	以那阈值计算。
100	Brussels, NATO declares cyber might in certain circumstances	布鲁塞尔,北约宣布在某些情况下网络可能
101	be considered an armed attack.	被认为是武装攻击。
102	Madrid, NATO pledges to boost resilience.	马德里,北约承诺增强复原力.
103	Vilnius, NATO	北约维尔纽斯
104	pledges a voluntary assistance tool and a cyber conference.	* 承诺建立一个自愿援助工具和一次网络会议。
105	Washington, NATO pledges	华盛顿,北约的承诺
106	a defence centre for 2028.	2028年国防中心。
107	Scope, undefined.	范围,未定义.
108	Authority, undefined.	权威,未定义.
109	And the most recent,	而最近一个
110	the Hague, the strongest declaration yet.	海牙,最强烈的宣言
111	Cyber is now a core pillar.	网络现在是一个核心支柱。
112	Where's the architecture?	建筑在哪里?
113	Each declaration, more diplomatic language.	每项宣言,多用外交语言.
114	And I love that.	我喜欢这样
115	Diplomacy is great.	外交是伟大的。
116	Read	读取
117	my substack.	我的潜水艇
118	Find out more.	找出更多的东西。
119	But none provides the architecture.	但没有任何一个能提供建筑。
120	24 years of declarations	24年的申报
121	and still no rapid attribution mechanism, no defined threshold, no graduated response,	仍然没有迅速的归属机制,没有确定的门槛,没有逐步的反应,
122	no operational cyber command with teeth.	没有带有牙齿的操作网络指令.
123	And now the latest gap, it was Microsoft that	而现在最新的漏洞是微软
124	identified the Russian cyber attack on Ukraine before NATO.	确定北约之前俄罗斯对乌克兰的网络攻击.
125	Today the AI frontier labs, creating	今天的AI前沿实验室,创建
126	systems that are reshaping warfare, intelligence, decision making, they sit outside any alliance	重新塑造战争、情报、决策的系统却置身于任何联盟之外
127	framework.	框架。
128	Donald Tusk talks about, has written about the ongoing disintegration of the alliance.	唐纳德·塔斯克谈到, 已经写下了联盟正在解体。
129	You cannot construct cyber architecture when a president of the United States is calling	你无法构建网络架构当美国总统打电话
130	the alliance a paper tiger.	联盟是纸老虎。
131	You cannot defend against AI warfare with declarations.	你不能用声明来防御AI战争
132	Things	东西
133	are a bit sticky.	有点粘
134	A final story.	一个最后的故事。
135	A few years ago I'm in a sunny meadow in France.	几年前我在法国的一片阳光明媚的草地上
136	This	这个
137	time it's me giving the talk and I'm talking to my cohort on the UK Defence Academy's	是时候让我来谈谈了我在英国国防学院跟我的同学说话了
138	higher command and staff course.	高级指挥和参谋课程。
139	I'm standing on the spot where my great uncle Will led	我站在我叔叔威尔带领的现场
140	a platoon out across that field on the 1st of July 1916.	1916年7月1日,一个排横跨战场
141	There were many reasons for	有许多原因
142	the catastrophe on the Somme.	索姆河上的灾难
143	One of them was that the military failed to adapt for	其中之一是军方没有适应
144	the high tech threat of the day, industrial machine gun warfare.	今天的高科技威胁工业机枪战
145	Now Will, he was reported	现在威尔,他被报了案
146	失踪了,MIA。
147	Only his kit bag was returned.	只有他的包包还了
148	His mother put it in his room unopened	他妈妈放进他房间,没有打开
149	waiting for him to come home and it was still in his room unopened on the day that she died.	等待着他回家她死那天还在他房间里
150	Machine guns were not a surprise.	机关枪并不奇怪。
151	The army thought it was fit for purpose to deal with	军队认为这适合处理
152	the war.	战争
153	In July 1916, do you think Will's mother thought that it was fit for purpose?	1916年7月,你认为威尔的母亲认为这适合目的吗?
154	Do you?	是吗?
155	Sometimes I think of Will at night, still out there on the wire.	有时候我晚上想起威尔, 还在电线上。
156	In my mind he's	在我脑中,他
157	calling to me, live, be ready.	给我打电话,生活,准备好。
158	Thank you Anthony for that fine speech.	谢谢你安东尼的精彩演讲
159	Opening the case for the opposition this evening is Kira Rudik.	今晚向反对派揭发的是基拉·鲁迪克.
160	Kira is a member of the Ukrainian	KIRA是乌克兰人的一员
161	Parliament and leader of the Holost Party.	议会和霍洛斯特党领袖.
162	Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale	自从俄国开始全面
163	invasion she has widely promoted Ukraine's agenda and in 2020 was added to Russia's	她广泛宣传了乌克兰的议程,并在2020年加入了俄罗斯
164	sanction list.	制裁名单。
165	She advocates for democratic values, digital transformation and the confiscation	她倡导民主价值观、数字化转型和没收
166	of frozen Russian assets for the sake of Ukraine.	为乌克兰冻结俄罗斯资产。
167	Kira, you have the ears of the house.	KIRA,你有房子的耳朵。
168	Hello everyone and thank you so much for inviting me here.	大家好非常感谢你们邀请我来这里
169	It's a pleasure and privilege to be	幸会
170	speaking in such an honorable audience.	在如此光荣的观众席上说话
171	I want to start by thanking brave men and women of Ukraine	首先我要感谢乌克兰的勇敢男女
172	who are fighting at the front line right now and allow me to stand here in front of you and also	他们正在前线作战让我站在你面前
173	brave men and women of the democratic states like the United Kingdom who pushed as the society	像英国这样的民主国家的勇敢的男女作为社会推动
174	their leaders to do the right thing at the toughest time.	他们的领导人在最艰难的时刻做正确的事情。
175	We remember all the day one,	我们记得一天,
176	day two when there were so much hesitation to help Ukraine or not and we remember	第二天,有这么多的犹豫帮助乌克兰与否,我们记得
177	that because of the pressure of the people like here in this audience that the leaders of the	因为观众压力很大
178	democratic states started changing their opinions and making the decisions to support Ukraine in	民主国家开始改变其观点,并作出决定支持乌克兰。
179	our fight for survival.	我们为生存而战
180	There are so many grievances that Ukraine has with NATO.	乌克兰对北约的不满如此之多。
181	These grievances are	这些不满是:
182	slow, indecisive, that NATO is uncoordinated and seems very weak.	北约缺乏协调,而且似乎非常脆弱。
183	These are all true points.	这些都是事实。
184	Let me share a grievance that I have with NATO.	让我分享我对北约的不满。
185	It was January 2nd,	这是1月2日,
186	early morning, 7 a.m.	上午7点
187	I was at my home and the air raid siren went on.	我在我家空袭警笛继续
188	I rushed downstairs	我急着下楼
189	only to witness how the windows of my living room were pulled away from their frames	只为了见证我客厅的窗户是如何被拉开的
190	and thrown at me.	朝我扔东西
191	It was my personal Armageddon.	是我的个人世界末日
192	It was a Kinjal missile that hit	是一枚金甲导弹击中
193	300 meters from where I lived.	离我住的地方300米
194	By this moment I still carry some of the chattered glass in my body	此时此刻,我仍然带着身体中一些颤抖的玻璃
195	and this is the reality that every Ukrainian is living with every single day.	这就是每个乌克兰人每天生活的现实。
196	It was same time when we had this campaign that was called hashtag NATO close the sky	当时我们有这场战役被称为北约关闭天空
197	because we truly believed that if you ask hard enough, if you show what you're going through	因为我们真的相信如果你问得够严, 如果你显示你正在经历什么
198	with all the openness then the things can change.	开诚布公事情就能改变
199	Unfortunately NATO didn't close the sky.	不幸的是,北约没有关闭天空。
200	It is so upsetting.	它是如此令人沮丧。
201	We know, we all understand it and I remember that I'm standing here on the	我们知道,我们都明白这一点我记得我站在这里
202	opposition point because when you think of all the things that are wrong with NATO,	反对是因为当你想到北约的所有错误时
203	let's think about what would happen if there is no NATO and we know very well what's going to happen.	想想如果没有北约会发生什么事我们很清楚会发生什么
204	Ukraine was attacked not because we were in NATO but because we weren't, because there were many	乌克兰被攻击不是因为我们在北约而是因为我们没有因为有很多
205	promises, because there was much hesitation and questions would they, won't they.	承诺,因为有很多犹豫和疑问他们会,不是吗?
206	If NATO disappears	如果北约消失
207	or is disassembled, what happens next is authoritarian regimes will start targeting	或者被拆散接下来会发生什么独裁政权将开始瞄准
208	smaller countries who do not have resources to defend themselves.	缺乏自卫资源的小国。
209	If NATO is not there,	如果北约不在那里,
210	there would be a regional arms race and we know and you know most of all what would happen then.	将会有一场区域军备竞赛,我们知道,而且你知道届时将发生什么。
211	In 2022 the main thing that was happening behind the scenes in all these international	在2022年发生在幕后的主要事情在所有这些国际
212	organizations, in all those conferences where people will talk to each other was asking if	在那些人们会互相交谈的大会上,
213	each and every country should start working on their nuclear program because it turns out in	每一个国家都应该开始研究其核计划,因为其成果是:
214	this new world there is nothing that would defend you except of your own nuclear arsenal.	这个新世界除了你们自己的核武库外没有什么能保卫你们
215	And this is not the world that I want to live in and I want my children to live in,	这不是我想要生活的世界我想要我的孩子生活的世界
216	the world where every single one is for themselves.	这个世界,每个人都是为自己。
217	What Ukraine has shown the whole world is that the	乌克兰向全世界展示的是:
218	only way you can stand up against the aggressor that is 10 times larger, that is stronger is the	只有这样你才能对抗十倍大的侵略者更强壮的是...
219	lesson of unity.	团结的教训。
220	You have to stick together to have a chance and no matter how hard it is to	你必须团结在一起才能有机会不管有多难
221	believe that NATO can improve, no matter how hard it is to think or to create a plan for NATO to	认为北约可以改进,无论有多么难以思考或制定计划让北约
222	come faster, to improve faster, we still do not see any other choice.	来得更快,改善得更快,我们仍然看不到任何其他选择。
223	Even at this point with all	即使在这个时候
224	the grievances the only path that we see forward is for Ukraine to join NATO and we keep saying it	我们所看到的唯一出路是乌克兰加入北约,我们一直说
225	every single day on any conference because we truly believe that to withstand the potential threat	任何会议的每一天因为我们真的相信
226	from China, the really active threat from Russia, you have to work together as one, you have to use	从中国,真正的积极威胁来自俄罗斯, 你必须合作作为一个, 你必须使用
227	all the possible resources, you have to use Ukraine's experience on the matter of the war,	利用乌克兰在战争问题上的经验
228	you have to innovate otherwise you will disappear but you should and can do it all together as a team.	你要创新否则你就会消失但你应该也可以作为一个团队一起完成这一切
229	It is very hard to explain to people what would it mean for Ukraine to join NATO, especially right now	很难向人们解释乌克兰加入北约意味着什么,特别是现在
230	when there are so many questions about its effectiveness and efficiency.	当有这么多关于它的效力和效率的问题时。
231	However, we still	然而,我们仍然
232	see no other choice in our path and this is the same way as people were pressuring their governments	在我们的道路上没有其他选择了这和人民向政府施压一样
233	to do the right thing.	来做正确的事情。
234	We truly believe that people will be able to pressure their government	我们真心相信人民能够向政府施压
235	to do the right things in terms of the NATO because it's for us in Ukraine NATO is somebody else but	在北约方面做正确的事因为北约在乌克兰是属于我们的
236	for you NATO is you and this is why when we are discussing its efficiency and effectiveness	北约就是你这就是为什么我们讨论其效率和效果
237	my biggest question is okay so what what's going to happen what are you personally doing to make	我最大的问题就是接下来会发生什么你个人在做什么
238	it right because it's a matter of everybody's security everybody's survival.	因为这关系到每个人的安全每个人都能生存
239	It is incredible	难以置信
240	that the four years that we have spent fighting in Ukraine and getting every additional day	我们花了四年时间在乌克兰作战并且每增加一天
241	so NATO alliance will use this these days to improve to innovate to be better.	因此,北约联盟将利用这些日子来改进创新,使之更好。
242	Sometimes it	有时候
243	feels that this time is lost and that nothing have happened.	觉得这次已经失传了,什么也没发生。
244	However, on the other hand	然而,另一方面,
245	I truly believe that it's never too late for the right people to push their leaders to push	我真心相信合适的人推他们的领袖推
246	their organizations to do the right thing and this is why I'm here this is why I'm calling to you	他们的组织做正确的事情这就是我来这里的原因这就是为什么我给你打电话
247	the youth and hope of the United Kingdom to do the right thing.	年轻人和希望英国做正确的事情。
248	We have no other option.	我们别无选择。
249	We have to make NATO work because the alternatives are much much worse.	我们必须使北约发挥作用,因为其他办法更糟。
250	For his fine floor speech and I would encourage you all to put your thinking hats on because we	我鼓励你们戴上思想帽子,因为我们
251	have another round of floor speeches coming after the next two speeches so please do get involved	接下来的两场演讲结束后再做一轮演讲请大家参与
252	then.	那就这样吧
253	Now we move to our second proposition speaker Sevim Dagdelen.	现在我们开始讨论我们的第二个提议,即塞维姆·达格德伦。
254	Sevim是外国作家
255	policy expert and served as a member of the German federal parliament from 2005 to 2025.	政策专家,2005年至2025年担任德国联邦议会议员.
256	She is known for her outspoken critique of military interventionism, commitment to	她以对军事干预主义的直言不讳的批评和对
257	multilateral diplomacy and advocacy for a foreign policy based on international law	多边外交和倡导以国际法为基础的外交政策
258	as well as her best-selling book NATO a Reckoning.	以及她最畅销的"北约"一书
259	Sevim you have the ears of the house.	塞维姆你有房子的耳朵。
260	Thanks a lot Mr President, honorable members, ladies and gentlemen.	非常感谢总统先生尊敬的各位先生女士们
261	I thank the honorable	感谢光荣
262	speaker from Ukraine for her passionate and deeply personal contribution and I think	乌克兰的发言者,她热情而深刻的个人贡献,我认为
263	no one in this house doubts the suffering of the people of Ukraine or doubts the	这座房子里没有人怀疑乌克兰人民的痛苦或怀疑
264	horror of this war in Ukraine but I think passion must not blind us to reality.	乌克兰这场战争的恐怖,但我认为激情绝不能使我们视而不见。
265	The bravery of Ukraine does not prove that NATO is fit for the world.	乌克兰的勇敢并不能证明北约适合世界。
266	It proves how dangerous it	这证明它有多危险
267	has become to rely on an alliance whose leading power is already announcing troop withdrawals	已经依靠一个联盟其主导力量已经宣布撤军
268	from Europe and whose reckless eastward expansion helped create the very conflict we now face.	从欧洲来的,他们不顾后果地向东扩张造成了我们现在面临的冲突。
269	Ladies and gentlemen, I rise to propose the motion this house believes NATO is unfit for	女士们先生们我提出动议这房子认为北约不适合
270	the world today.	现在的世界。
271	For decades the standard defense of NATO after the Warsaw Pact	几十年来北约在华沙条约之后的标准防御
272	dissolved was simple.	解散很简单。
273	Through this alliance the United States protect its European allies	通过这个联盟,美国保护自己的欧洲盟友
274	but recent events have shattered that comforting narrative.	但最近的事件打破了令人欣慰的叙事。
275	Washington's own partners in the	华盛顿的合作伙伴
276	Middle East now openly accuse the United States of abandonment.	中东现在公开指责美国放弃。
277	They received no warning	他们没有接到警告
278	before the illegal attack by the USA and Israel on Iran, nor did Washington appear willing	美国和以色列非法袭击伊朗之前华盛顿似乎也不愿意
279	or able to concentrate its forces on protecting the Gulf states.	或者能够集中力量保护海湾国家
280	5,000 American troops are to be withdrawn from Germany.	5000美军将撤出德国.
281	President Trump taking him as his word	川普总统相信他的话
282	and not merely dismissing him as a sandwich short of a picnic has stated plainly if Europe will not	并不只是把他当野餐的三明治明确地说,如果欧洲不会
283	assist in the Strait of Hormuz America will no longer assist Europe.	协助美国霍尔木兹海峡不再援助欧洲。
284	The pact which is intended	条约的意图
285	to secure US hegemony is being abandoned by the US itself.	为了保障美国的霸权,美国本身正在放弃。
286	Any calls for a NATO without the US	任何没有美国的北约的呼声
287	are nothing but wishful thinking.	只不过是一厢情愿的想法
288	That statement strikes at the very core of the North Atlantic	该声明触及北大西洋的核心地区。
289	Treaty.	条约。
290	When the leading power questions its commitment to collective defense the entire	当领军者质疑其对集体防卫的承诺时
291	alliance is called into question.	联盟受到质疑。
292	Even the German public has already moved on.	即使是德国公众也已经前进了
293	Opinion polls show a	民意调查显示
294	clear majority in Germany against collective defense partly because many Germans trust	部分因为许多德国人信任
295	neither the Baltic states nor Turkey.	无论是波罗的海国家还是土耳其
296	Only recently Lithuania's foreign minister	最近立陶宛的外交部长
297	Budris declared openly, I quote, we must show the Russians that we can penetrate the little fortress	布德里斯公开宣布,我引用, 我们必须让俄国人知道我们可以穿透小堡垒
298	they have built in Kaliningrad.	他们已经在加里宁格勒建造了
299	NATO has the means to raise the Russian air defense and missile bases	北约拥有提升俄罗斯防空和导弹基地的能力
300	there to the ground in the event of an emergency quote end.	出现紧急引号时立即降落到地面
301	Such statements reveal the true nature	这些声明揭示了真实性质
302	of this alliance.	这个联盟。
303	An organization that increasingly drags its members into other nations wars	一个将其成员日益拖入其他国家战争的组织
304	particularly those of the United States as we are currently witnessing with the war on Iran.	我们目前正在目睹对伊朗的战争。
305	Against this, not now please, against this backdrop there are growing calls to drag the whole of NATO	面对这种情况,现在不请自来,在这种背景下,越来越多的人要求拖累整个北约
306	directly into the war against Russia and this is precisely what makes this military pact so dangerous	直接投入对俄国的战争这正是这个军事条约如此危险的原因
307	for our populations today.	今天,我们的人口。
308	So we must warn against any illusion that the German Bundeswehr,	因此,我们必须警告任何幻想德国联邦国防军,
309	the German army could step in if the United States refused to provide	如果美国拒绝提供
310	support.	支助。
311	Even in peacetime there are not enough volunteers for the German tank	即使在和平时期,德国坦克也没有足够的志愿者
312	battalion stationed in Lithuania.	驻扎在立陶宛的营.
313	Right on the Russian border a third major war against Russia	就在俄国边境上第三次对俄国的战争
314	in the last hundred years is something very very few people in Germany can be convinced to accept.	在过去的一百年里,德国很少有人能够接受。
315	NATO has already had to shoot down a Ukraine drone over the Baltic states to prevent attacks on Russia	北约已经不得不在波罗的海国家上空击落一架乌克兰无人机以防止对俄罗斯的攻击
316	launched from NATO territory and that was nothing less than an act to stop Germany	这简直就是阻止德国的行动
317	from being pulled into war.	从被拖入战争。
318	But how long can such measures continue to work?	但是,这些措施能持续多久?
319	The claim that NATO remains a genuine defense alliance is nothing but a myth	北约仍是一个真正的防御联盟的说法不过是个神话
320	and that myth is fading before our eyes.	而神话正在我们眼前消失
321	Second, NATO presents itself as a community of shared values	第二,北约把自己看成一个共同价值共同体
322	human rights, democracy, the rule of law, but history has always contradicted this.	人权、民主、法治,但历史始终与此相矛盾。
323	A founding	一个创始人
324	member of the NATO was the Salazar's fascist dictatorship in Portugal with his bloody colonies	北约成员是萨拉扎在葡萄牙的法西斯独裁政权他的血腥殖民地
325	in Africa or in Brazil.	在非洲或巴西。
326	The CIA backed coups not only in Chile but inside NATO itself in Turkey	中情局不仅支持智利的政变也支持北约内部的政变
327	in the coup 1980 or secret armies such as Gladio operated across member states of the NATO for	在1980年的政变中,或像格拉迪奥这样的秘密军队在北约成员国之间为
328	example in Italy.	意大利的例子。
329	They did.	没错
330	Today the contradiction is grotesque.	今天的矛盾是怪异的。
331	The United States, Germany and	美国、德国和
332	Britain stand accused by Amnesty International, Medicine Sans Frontieres and the UN Human Rights	英国受到大赦国际、医学无国界组织和联合国人权的指责
333	Council of complicity in a genocide in Gaza.	加沙种族灭绝同谋理事会。
334	What common values are being upheld by supporting	通过支持
335	a genocide?	种族灭绝?
336	What values are served by the abduction of Venezuela's elected president and his wife?	绑架委内瑞拉当选总统及其妻子有什么价值?
337	A blatant violation of the prohibition of the use of force in the United Nations Charter	公然违反《联合国宪章》禁止使用武力的规定
338	is forbidding the use of force.	禁止使用武力。
339	That's for every country.	这是每一个国家。
340	This is the regular rule of law	这是正常的法治
341	according to the UN Charter or by America's decades-long hunger blockade against Cuba	根据《联合国宪章》或美国对古巴几十年的饥饿封锁
342	designed to starve an entire society into submission.	目的是让整个社会屈服
343	Is starving a whole people for	整个人都饿死了
344	political ends part of the western canon of values?	西方价值观的政治目的?
345	The assertion that NATO is a community of values	北约是一个价值观共同体的说法
346	is nothing but a myth and that myth is fading before our eyes, ladies and gentlemen.	只不过是个神话而神话正在我们眼前消失女士们先生们
347	Third, we rightly condemn Russia's violation of international law in Ukraine because it is	第三,我们正确地谴责俄罗斯在乌克兰违反国际法,因为它
348	against the UN Charter.	违反《联合国宪章》。
349	It's a use of force and the use of force is prohibited by the UN Charter	这是使用武力,《联合国宪章》禁止使用武力
350	and that's why our criticism on this aggression is right.	这就是为什么我们对这次侵略的批评是正确的。
351	Yet such criticism from NATO carries	然而,北约的这种批评带有:
352	moral weight only if we ourselves respect that law.	只有我们自己尊重法律道德才有分量
353	The record of the alliance's leading power	联盟主力的记录
354	tells a different story.	讲述了一个不同的故事。
355	Vietnam, Iraq, with millions of dead and now an unprovoked	越南,伊拉克,数百万人死亡现在无端
356	war of aggression against Iran.	侵略伊朗的战争。
357	The leader of the so-called free world, the US president,	所谓的自由世界的领导人,美国总统,
358	has declared openly, I quote, I don't need international law, quote, end.	我引证,我已公开宣布, 我不需要国际法,引用,结束。
359	Only his own	只有他一个人
360	authority restrains him, he said, a chillingly thin safeguard.	他说,权力约束着他一个寒冷而薄的保障
361	He even threatens NATO allies.	他甚至威胁北约盟国
362	He is demanding Greenland and as a block, NATO has repeatedly broken the UN Chapter,	他要求格陵兰,作为一个街区,北约一再破坏联合国章节,
363	bombing Yugoslavia without Security Council approval in 1999, twisting a Libya resolution	1999年未经安全理事会批准轰炸南斯拉夫,扭曲了利比亚决议
364	to regime change and chaos in 2011 and fighting a 20-year long war in Afghanistan that ended with	2011年的政权更迭和混乱,以及阿富汗长达20年的战争以
365	the Taliban back in power and hundreds of thousands dead.	塔利班重新掌权,数十万人丧生。
366	The claim that NATO is a guardian	关于北约是监护人的说法
367	of international law is nothing but a myth and that myth too is fading.	国际法只是神话,神话也正在消亡。
368	Fourth, when these points	第四,当这些点
369	are conceded, NATO's defenders fall back on the argument, but we have expanded from 16 to 32	北约的维权者反悔了但我们已经从16人扩大到32人
370	members after the Cold War ended.	冷战结束后的成员。
371	What a success.	何等为成就.
372	I think on the contrary, it is the greatest	我认为恰恰相反,这是最伟大的
373	geopolitical own goal in modern history.	现代史上的地缘政治自身目标.
374	NATO enlargement achieved precisely what Kissinger	北约的扩大正是实现了基辛格的目标
375	and Nixon once prevented.	和尼克松曾经阻止。
376	It drove Russia and China in each other's arm.	它把俄罗斯和中国推向了对方的手臂.
377	Moscow was giving	莫斯科正在给
378	clear assurances that NATO would not expand east.	明确保证北约不会向东扩张.
379	The price for German reunification and the peaceful	德国统一与和平的代价
380	withdrawal of 300,000 Soviet troops from central Europe, Russia warned that this was a red line	撤出300 000人来自中欧的苏联军队俄罗斯警告说这是一条红线
381	and we crossed it anyway.	反正我们越过了它。
382	So the result is the most dangerous strategic environment for the West	所以结果是西方最危险的战略环境
383	in decades.	数十年来。
384	NATO is not a diplomatic success story.	北约不是一个外交成功的例子。
385	It is a strategic liability and the claim	这是战略责任和索赔
386	that it improves the West geopolitical position is nothing but a myth and that myth is fading.	它能改善西方地缘政治的地位只不过是个神话而神话正在消逝
387	Finally, the most devastating consequence falls upon Europe's social model, our welfare state.	最后,欧洲的社会模式——我们的福利国家——造成了最具破坏性的后果。
388	The United States demands that NATO members spend 5% of the GDP on defense.	美国要求北约成员国将5%的GDP用于国防.
389	For Germany,	德国
390	my homeland alone, that equals roughly 220 billion euro per year.	仅我的祖国就相当于每年约2200亿欧元。
391	This is nearly half	这是近一半
392	the entire federal budget of Germany and do not let anyone convince you that we had this similarly	德国整个联邦预算千万别让任何人说服你我们也有类似的
393	high military spending during the Cold War.	冷战时期军费开支高.
394	Back then, we enjoyed strong economic growth	当时,我们享受了强劲的经济增长
395	and could afford it.	并且可以负担它。
396	But while today's economic stagnation means every additional euro spent on	但是今天的经济停滞意味着每一个额外的欧元花在
397	arms must be brutally cut from healthcare, education or pensions.	武器必须被残酷地从保健、教育或养老金中切断。
398	Healthcare, pensions,	保健、养恤金、
399	social security, the hard-won achievements of 150 years of workers' struggle	社会保障 150年工人斗争取得的艰苦成就
400	will be sacrificed on the altar of endless rearmament.	将牺牲在无尽的重整军备的祭坛上。
401	So this military pact puts our	因此,这个军事协议让我们
402	welfare at risk and it threatens to destroy precisely the societies it pretends to defend.	它有可能摧毁它假装要捍卫的社会。
403	It is a bull in a china shop smashing the prosperity and the stability it was created to	这是瓷器店里的一头牛粉碎了它创造的繁荣和稳定
404	safeguard.	保护。
405	I'm coming to the end.	即来至末.
406	If we just look at the numbers, just one last point,	如果我们只是看看数字, 就最后一个点,
407	we just look at the numbers.	我们只是看看数字。
408	NATO already accounts for 55% of global military spending.	北约已经占全球军费开支的55%。
409	In 2025, last year alone, the military pact spent $1.58 trillion on armaments.	仅在去年的2025年,军事条约就花费1.58万亿美元用于军备。
410	European states alone spent four times more than Russia and now these expenditures are supposed to	仅欧洲国家的支出就比俄罗斯多四倍现在这些支出应该
411	almost double.	几乎是双倍。
412	And just imagine for a second what a fraction of this money could achieve.	想象一下这笔钱的一小部分能实现什么
413	We could eradicate world hunger.	我们可以消除世界饥饿。
414	Saving hundreds of millions of lives, we could finance serious	拯救亿万人的生命,我们就能为
415	climate action.	气候行动。
416	We could strengthen our welfare states and rebuild our crumbling.	我们可以加强我们的福利国家重建我们的崩溃。
417	And coming to	来到
418	end, honorable members, Mr. President, all the central myths of the NATO, defense alliance,	最后,尊敬的成员,主席先生, 所有的核心神话北约,防御联盟,
419	values, community, guardian of international law, strategic masterstroke have been exposed.	价值观、社区、国际法的守护者、战略中枢已经暴露出来。
420	They no longer convince.	他们不再说服。
421	The time has come for truth.	时彼真言已.
422	The time has come to face reality.	现在是面对现实的时候了。
423	And this is why I propose the motion.	这就是我提出动议的原因
424	This House believes that NATO is not fit for the world today.	本院认为北约不适合当今世界.
425	Thank you.	谢谢
426	Thank you, Serdim, for that fine speech.	谢谢你塞迪姆刚才的精彩演讲
427	Might I remind members to make POIs	我能否提醒各位成员,让大家参与
428	in an orderly and appropriate fashion?	以有序和适当的方式?
429	We shall now move to our second speaker for the opposition	我们现在请第二位代表反对派发言
430	this evening, Daniel Volboff.	今晚,丹尼尔・沃尔布夫。
431	Daniel Volboff is the founder and president of Cambridge University	丹尼尔·沃尔博夫是剑桥大学的创始人和校长
432	Defence and Security Association and previously chairman of the Cambridge University Conservative	国防与安全协会,曾任剑桥大学保守党主席
433	Association.	协会.
434	He has written for publications such as National Interest.	他为国家利益等出版物撰稿。
435	He is at Churchill College	他在丘吉尔学院
436	reading for an undergraduate degree in architecture.	读取建筑学本科学位。
437	Daniel, you have the ears of the House.	丹尼尔,你有众议院的耳朵。
438	Thank you very much, Jack, for that introduction.	非常感谢,杰克,你的介绍。
439	Thank you very much to our speakers for their	非常感谢我们的发言者。
440	prior speeches.	以前的发言。
441	I particularly enjoyed the one we have just heard because it has given me some	我特别喜欢刚才听到的,因为它给了我一些
442	things to talk about, which is nice.	有话要说,很好听
443	I think it is a very interesting point to make that national	我认为,这是一个非常有趣的点使国家
444	security is a problem because it costs money.	安全是个问题,因为它要花钱。
445	I think if you are concerned about money,	如果你担心钱
446	then you can look to the billions and tens of billions of pounds of damage to critical	然后,你可以看数十亿和数百亿磅的破坏关键
447	infrastructure in Ukraine over the last war, not even to mention the human cost of that war.	更不用提那场战争对人造成的损失了
448	I also think it is incredibly rich of a politician from Germany to complain about	我也觉得德国政治家抱怨
449	NATO making them reliant on America for defence when actually you are the second largest economy	北约让他们依靠美国防御,而实际上你才是第二大经济体
450	in NATO and you have been consistently spending half of what NATO asks for in defence spending.	在北约,你一直在花一半的北约要求的国防开支。
451	I think you are in a hell of your own making.	我觉得你是在地狱你自己的制造。
452	This House believes NATO is unfit for the world	本院认为北约不适合世界
453	today.	今时.
454	NATO is an alliance of 32 member states which has existed as a force in global politics	北约是一个由32个成员国组成的联盟,作为全球政治的力量存在
455	for nearly 80 years.	将近80年了
456	Yet when we discuss NATO, even with somebody who is quite well informed,	然而,当我们讨论北约, 即使与一个相当知情的人,
457	we suddenly appear to understand what it actually does.	我们突然明白它实际上做了什么
458	We know it asks members to spend 2 per cent,	我们知道它要求各成员花2%,
459	we have a list of countries which constitute its membership and we know it is a mutual defence	我们有一份构成其成员的国家名单,我们知道这是相互防卫。
460	where an attack on one is an attack on all, but it is actually a lot more.	攻击一个人就是攻击所有人,但实际上却要多得多。
461	So I think to answer the question is NATO fit for the world today, I would like to first discuss	所以我想回答一个问题北约适合今天的世界, 我想首先讨论一下
462	the actual tangible work on the ground which it does and then I will move on to the motion at hand.	现场的实际实际工作,然后我接着讨论手头的动议。
463	So what does NATO do?	北约做什么?
464	The answer is mostly quite boring stuff.	答案大多是无聊的
465	Standardisation, communications,	标准化、通信、
466	integrated command.	综合指挥。
467	Being in NATO isn't just adding your name to a list of countries and benefiting	加入北约并不只是把你的名字添加到国家名单中并从中受益
468	from the American military promising to defend you.	从美国军方保证保卫你。
469	It impacts the fundamentals of how you	它影响你的基本原理
470	structure your armed forces.	组织你的武装部队。
471	We will start with standardisation.	我们从标准化开始。
472	Every service dog,	每个服务狗,
473	and I have mentioned dog so you are going to have to vote for us, in NATO is trained to the same	我提到狗,所以你必须投给我们, 在北约训练到相同的。
474	standards.	标准。
475	You don't need to speak the language of whoever trained the dog to be able to instruct it	你不需要说那些训练狗的人的话就能教它
476	and this is because a standard was agreed by all NATO member states.	这是因为北约所有成员国都同意了一项标准。
477	Aircraft marshals,	飞机元帅,
478	people on runways who wave things around, all have the same signals.	在跑道上挥舞事物的人都有相同的信号
479	You can land a plane on	你可以在飞机上降落
480	any NATO runway and know exactly what you are being instructed to do.	任何北约的跑道并确切地知道你正在被指示做什么。
481	Ammunition has standards	弹药有标准
482	applied to it, quite a lot of them actually.	应用到它, 很多实际上。
483	Here in Britain our challenger two main battle	在英国,我们的挑战者两大战役
484	tanks are having their guns changed from rifled to smoothbore cannons and this is so that they	坦克的火炮从步枪改为滑膛炮这样它们就能
485	can fire the same ammunition as other main battle tanks used in NATO such as the Leopard 2 fielded	可以发射与北约使用的其他主战坦克相同的弹药,如豹式2型野战坦克
486	by Poland, Spain, Canada, Germany and others.	由波兰、西班牙、加拿大、德国和其他国家编写。
487	This kind of standardisation stretches across	这种标准化跨越
488	every facet of all of the armed forces in NATO.	北约所有武装力量的每一个方面
489	Fuel nozzles fit all vehicles, map icons are the	燃料喷嘴适合所有车辆地图图标是
490	same so you can take a map from Poland and know what it's saying.	同样,你可以从波兰取一张地图并知道它的意思。
491	Radio frequencies are pre-agreed,	无线电频率是事先商定的,
492	everything is pre-aggranged and cross compatible meaning if conflict breaks out tomorrow we don't	如果明天冲突爆发我们就不会发生
493	need a dozen different supply chains, subsupply chains making a dozen different types of bullets	需要一打不同的供应链次级供应链制造一打不同类型的子弹
494	for a rifle.	为步枪。
495	Toby?	托比吗?
496	I agree with everything you've said about fuel nozzles and	我同意你所说的关于燃料喷嘴和
497	different kinds of bullets.	各种子弹
498	Do you like fuel nozzles Toby?	你喜欢燃料喷嘴托比?
499	However my question is	但我的问题是
500	even though these things might well be standardised and that might be a good thing	虽然这些东西可能已经标准化了这也许是件好事
501	does this necessarily mean that NATO is fit for purpose considering as you mentioned supply	这是否必然意味着北约适合在您提到供应时考虑目的?
502	chains.	锁链。
503	It does indeed.	确实如此。
504	But our supply chains are woefully woefully too small.	但我们的供应链非常小。
505	No it doesn't	没有
506	and I will get onto this Toby.	我会找到托比的
507	I will get onto exactly why this is not only fit but absolutely	我會弄清楚為什麼這不僅適合而且絕對
508	vital and indispensable in the modern world.	在现代世界中至关重要和不可或缺。
509	We don't need lots of supply chains because all of	我们不需要很多供应链因为
510	our rifles can take the same bullets and we know for a fact that they can.	我们的步枪可以带同样的子弹我们知道他们可以
511	We don't have to trial	我们不需要审判
512	and error things.	和错误的东西。
513	We don't need to waste any time improvising ways to make equipment and protocols	我们不需要浪费时间即兴制作设备和协议
514	of different nations interlock and work together.	他们彼此交织,互相配合。
515	The importance of standardisation like this was	这样标准化的重要性
516	impressive during the second world war the aftermath of which is when NATO was founded.	在第二次世界大战期间留下深刻的印象,这场战争的后果是北约成立之时。
517	During the war the allied coalition was the gold standard in large international forces working	在战争中盟军联军是大国际部队的金本位
518	together but a lack of peacetime preparation hampered our logistics and reduced our capacity	再加上和平时期的准备不足,阻碍了我们的后勤,削弱了我们的能力
519	to make war.	制造战争。
520	NATO was created with lessons from that war in mind and it is active preparation	北约创建时铭记着这场战争的教训,它正在积极准备
521	for the next war and it does everything it can to maximise our warfighting ability from day one	为了下一场战争它竭尽所能从第一天起就最大限度地提高我们的作战能力
522	should mutual defence be triggered.	双方应相互防御。
523	What else?	还有什么?
524	Defence planning.	国防规划.
525	NATO assesses as a whole how	北约如何整体评估
526	many battalions of troops we need, how many fast jets, how much ammunition and stockpiles and it	我们需要很多营的部队,需要多少快速喷气机,需要多少弹药和储存和它
527	breaks up this total between member states and assigns them.	将这一总数在成员国之间分开并分配。
528	这是GDP的2%
529	which Germany has consistently failed to hit has come from.	德国一直未能打击它。
530	Intelligence sharing.	情报共享.
531	NATO provides a	北约提供a
532	framework for intelligence sharing so if one state knows something prevalent to all of NATO then	情报共享框架,如果一个国家知道北约组织普遍存在的东西,
533	everybody knows it.	每个人都知道
534	Integrated command.	综合指挥.
535	If the 32 states are thrust into a war together tomorrow	如果这32个州明天一起陷入战争
536	not a minute will be wasted figuring out who's in charge of who if Polish officers have the right	如果波兰军官有权利确定由谁负责
537	to instruct Danish troops and vice versa.	指示丹麦军队,反之亦然。
538	Nature and all the constituent militaries that make it	自然和所有组成它的军队
539	up are undertaking continuous work and have been for decades to make sure that when war breaks out	几十年来一直确保战争爆发时
540	the armed forces of 32 states can lock step smoothly and fight as a single fighting force	32个州的武装部队可以顺利地锁定步调,并作为一个单一的战斗部队作战
541	against whatever threat is unlucky enough to be downrange.	面对任何威胁运气都不好
542	I hope you're all feeling a little	我希望你们都感觉有点
543	safer knowing exactly what NATO is doing day and night to keep us safe.	更安全地知道北约日夜在做些什么来保护我们的安全
544	Now to answer is NATO fit	现在来回答的是北约
545	the world today let us look at its two newest member states Sweden and Finland who both joined	今天的世界让我们看看它的两个最新成员国瑞典和芬兰。
546	following Putin's invasion of Ukraine.	在普京入侵乌克兰之后
547	Now both boast formidable militaries Finland in particular	现在他们都特别夸耀芬兰的强大军队
548	with its large land border with Russia is in a state of constant readiness for war but its military	与俄罗斯接壤的陆地边界很大,但一直处于战争的准备状态,但军事方面则处于军事状态。
549	doctrine is very different to that of NATO.	理论与北约大不相同。
550	It wasn't really built to be able to deploy large	它真的不是用来部署大型的
551	numbers of troops abroad its focus instead being on defense against potential invasion and yet	其重点是防御潜在的入侵,然而,
552	Finland and Sweden have both embarked on massive decade-long programs to conform their armed	芬兰和瑞典都着手实施了长达十年的大规模方案,以遵守《公约》的规定。
553	forces to NATO standards and integrate them into NATO as a whole.	部队遵守北约标准,并融入整个北约。
554	So in the 21st century this	所以在21世纪
555	capacity to slot smoothly together and fight as one which NATO provides is still seen as vital	北约提供的顺利合作和战斗的能力仍然至关重要
556	is still pursued both by NATO command and the member state militaries.	北约司令部和成员国军队仍在追捕他们。
557	NATO is still fit and	北约仍然适合
558	functioning in the world today albeit with shortcomings as was pointed out.	尽管如前所述存在一些缺点,但当今世界上的运作情况依然如此。
559	It must be	这一定是
560	acknowledged the world in which NATO was conceived and founded where much of Europe was still knee	承认北约诞生和建立的世界欧洲大部分地区仍然处于瘫痪状态
561	deep in rubble and the Cold War only at its outset was very different to the one we operate in today.	在瓦砾和冷战中,仅仅从一开始就与我们今天的活动大不相同。
562	The biggest adversary of the West was Moscow and not Beijing and the frontiers between East and West	西方最大的对手是莫斯科而不是北京以及东西方的边界
563	were drawn down the middle of Germany now there are a thousand kilometers further East.	被划下德国中部现在有一千公里远的东。
564	As Russia	作为俄罗斯
565	continues suffering eye-watering losses in Ukraine we are unlikely to see Russian tanks rolling	我们不可能看到俄国坦克在滚滚
566	across Europe in quite the way we envisioned we might at NATO's founding but this does not mean	整个欧洲都以我们想象中的方式在北约成立时可能如此但这并不代表
567	that the work that NATO does is obsolete.	北约的工作已经过时
568	Quite the opposite fact it has found real world application	恰恰相反,它找到了真实世界的应用
569	and demonstrated its real its use in real conflicts.	并证明了它在实际冲突中的真正用途。
570	The wars following the breakup of	战争爆发后
571	Yugoslavia which we've previously heard mentioned were a horrendous affair huge casualties large	我们之前听到的南斯拉夫是一个可怕的事件巨大的伤亡
572	numbers of civilian deaths ethnic cleansing.	被种族清洗的平民死亡人数。
573	NATO's intervention on behalf of the people of Bosnia	北约代表波斯尼亚人民进行干预
574	and Kosovo was vital was a vital humanitarian act which almost certainly reduced the human toll	科索沃是至关重要的人道主义行为,几乎可以肯定地减少人员伤亡。
575	of the war.	战争。
576	I'm sorry it was it was a it was a genocide that triggered us to get involved you	对不起,这是一场种族灭绝触发了我们把你牵扯进来
577	understand that.	理解这一点。
578	I think there was one argument to my argument that there was no security council	我认为我的论点有一个论点即没有安全理事会
579	permission for that or do you think that was in recording the rule of law?	或者你认为这是在记录法治?
580	I discussed the UN peacekeepers so I'll come on to that.	我讨论过联合国维和人员,所以我会继续
581	No back and forth.	无前后.
582	It was also the first time NATO would intervene together in a conflict and found out how effective	这也是北约首次共同介入冲突,发现其效力如何
583	their preparedness for war really was.	他们为战争做好了准备
584	While there were lessons learned from the intervention being	虽然从这次干预中汲取了教训,但
585	the first time integrated commander standardization had made contact with the enemy NATO fundamentally	第一次统一指挥官标准化,使北约与敌方
586	NATO's structure and areas of focus enabled them to deploy over a thousand aircraft and	北约的结构和重点领域使其能够部署1 000多架飞机和
587	60,000 troops from a variety of countries to the region and do it smoothly and without any	从各国到该区域的60 000名部队人员,在没有任何人员的情况下,顺利地完成任务。
588	major instance from breakdown in command or incompatibility.	命令失效或不兼容的重大实例。
589	As a point of comparison the	作为比较点,
590	UN protection force which NATO took over from suffered from severe issues which NATO was able	北约接管的联合国保护部队遇到北约能够解决的严重问题
591	to avoid.	以避免。
592	They had incompatible radios different rules of engagement lack of unified command.	他们有不兼容的无线电不同的接战规则缺乏统一的指挥。
593	Their ineffectiveness on the ground cost lives and led directly to the massacre of 8,000 civilians	他们在当地效力低下,直接导致8 000名平民被杀害
594	at Srebrenica.	在斯雷布雷尼察。
595	NATO was built for large-scale ground invasion but proved just as effective	北约是为大规模地面入侵而建立的,但被证明同样有效
596	for messier intervention work such as this and was leagues ahead of what the UN force could do.	对于像这样更混乱的干预工作,是领先于联合国部队所能做的。
597	Let's not forget in the aftermath of that intervention former Yugoslav states Montenegro,	我们不要忘记在那次干预之后前南斯拉夫国家黑山,
598	Slovenia and Croatia all joined NATO seeking cover under its military umbrella.	斯洛文尼亚和克罗地亚都加入了北约,寻求其军事保护伞的掩护。
599	Fast forward to 2011	快速推进到2011年
600	and Operation Unified Protector or the West Strikes on Libya in response to the intolerable	和 " 联合保护者行动 " 或 " 西部打击利比亚行动 " ,以应对不可容忍的
601	violence Gaddafi was committing against his own people.	卡扎菲正在对自己的人民实施暴力。
602	Within days of the UN resolution authorizing	在联合国决议授权的几天之内
603	force the NATO members involved had a functioning combined air operation centre running coordinated	北约有关成员有一个运作良好的联合空中业务中心,经协调
604	strikes air to air refuelling reconnaissance and other vital missions.	向空中加油侦察和其他重要任务发起空袭
605	British, French and American	英国、法国和美国
606	aircraft were sharing the same airspace and refuelings from each other's tankers in a way	飞机以某种方式共享同一空域和彼此油轮加油
607	they simply could not have in an improvised coalition while states not directly involved	他们根本不可能组成一个临时联盟,而国家没有直接参与。
608	provided infrastructure and flyover rights to enable them.	提供基础设施和飞行权,以使其能够行使。
609	Their air force has been training	他们的空军一直在训练
610	together under NATO standards for decades and it told in the speed and effectiveness of their	数十年来在北约组织标准下共同行动,并说明了它们的速度和效力。
611	military action.	军事行动。
612	Warfare in the late 20th and 21st century is characterized by these large	20世纪后期和21世纪的战争的特点是:
613	multi-nations coalitions which are vital to achieving operational credibility on the world stage.	多国联盟对于在世界舞台上实现业务信誉至关重要。
614	You've talked about operational capability but made no reference to the shortcomings that you've	你谈论过作战能力但没有提到你的缺点
615	acknowledged how integrated command can address cyber or AI enabled warfare.	承认综合指挥能够解决网络或AI发动战争的问题。
616	You're on the wrong	你错了
617	side aren't you?	侧面是不是你?
618	The motion's not can NATO be reformed, it's is NATO fit today for the world	这个动议不能改革北约北约今天适合世界
619	of today.	今天的节目
620	Don't your shortcomings put you on this side of the house?	你的缺点不是让你站在房子的这边吗?
621	I disagree I think there are I think there are sort of gradients of fitness I think it is	我不同意我觉得有些健身的梯度我想是的
622	undeniably fit for what it does it could be better I take I take your point that there are	无可否认的适合它做它可能更好我接受你的观点
623	severe shortcomings but that doesn't mean that it isn't fit and fundamentally sort of you know	严重缺点,但这并不意味着它不合适根本的排序你知道
624	the job the native does is vital even in its current state.	土生土长的工作即使在目前状态下也至关重要。
625	Now to broach the elephant in the	现在把大象拉上
626	room Trump's war in Iran is so unpopular and has caused so much outrage demonstrates that	特朗普在伊朗的战争如此不受欢迎引起了如此多的愤慨这表明
627	large international coalitions are vital for diplomatic credibility.	大型国际联盟对外交信誉至关重要。
628	His focus has only been	他的焦点只是
629	on NATO's military role and he has completely ignored his diplomatic and political it's	他完全无视他的外交和政治
630	America and NATO's largest constituency may be wavering under its current president in its	美国和北约最大的支持者可能在其现任总统的领导下摇摆不定。
631	support but nothing that Trump has tweeted has stopped American pilots training with European	但特朗普在推特上并没有停止美国飞行员与欧洲的训练
632	ones nothing stopped American military leaders maintaining their working relations with their	没有什么能阻止美国军方领导人与他们的工作关系
633	European and Canadian counterparts.	欧洲和加拿大同行。
634	America may be wavering and many states may have been falling	美国可能摇摆不定,许多州可能已经陷落
635	short of their commitments over recent years but NATO is still more than able to undertake vital	但北约仍然非常有能力执行
636	work the vital work it does every day.	做它每天从事的重要工作。
637	It has these problems but that didn't dissuade no less	它有这些问题,但这并不劝阻
638	than nine former eastern bloc countries from voluntarily joining NATO after the breakup of	超过9个在北约解体后自愿加入北约的前东部集团国家
639	Only a few years ago Finland and Sweden took the generational decision to ditch their long held	仅仅几年前,芬兰和瑞典就决定抛弃他们长期持有的
640	neutrality and have embarked on enormous programs to fit their armed forces into the NATO	并开始实施庞大的计划,使其武装部队加入北约
641	superstructure.	上层结构。
642	Only a few months ago Hungary's new president Peter Magyar has stated it is	几个月前,匈牙利新总统彼得·马吉亚尔(Peter Magyar)表示,
643	his intention to build trust with NATO allies and raise defense spending to meet NATO standards and	他打算与北约盟国建立信任,增加国防开支,以达到北约的标准,
644	I think most pressingly of all Ukraine continues clamoring for membership and for closer working	我认为,在所有乌克兰中,最迫切的是继续要求加入和更加密切地工作。
645	relations.	关系
646	Able to do its job of enabling quick and close relationships between member states	有能力完成促进成员国之间快速、密切的关系的工作
647	large working coalitions remaining necessary now and into the future and with demonstrable	大型工作联盟现在和将来仍然有必要,而且有明显的
648	and renewing support and continued engagement from its member state NATO is fit for the world	北约成员国的继续支持和持续参与符合世界的需要
649	today.	今时.
650	You should all thank NATO for the work it does and vote with the opposition.	你们都应该感谢北约组织所做的工作和与反对派的投票。
651	Thank you Daniel for his fine speech.	谢谢你丹尼尔的精彩演讲
652	We now move to our closing speeches and closing the case	我们现在开始结束发言,结束诉讼
653	for the proposition this evening is Toby Nosquiff.	今晚的提议是托比·诺斯基夫
654	Toby graduated in 2024 with a BA in history from	托比于2024年毕业,获得历史学士学位
655	Hughes Hall.	休斯·霍尔
656	He was chairman of the Cambridge University Conservative Association in Easter	他是剑桥大学复活节保守协会主席
657	2024 and he is also an advisor from the campaign group Indigenous Tragosian People.	2024年,他还是土著特拉戈西亚人运动团体的顾问。
658	Toby you have	托比,你来了
659	the ears of the house.	房子的耳朵。。。
660	I have to thank you Mr President for putting me in the rare and	总统先生,我必须感谢你把我置于难得之中
661	respectable situation of disagreeing strongly with a member of my own side and trying to do so in	与我一方成员强烈不和,并试图这样做的可敬情况
662	such a way that you all still stay on our side of the motion and all I would say truly from the heart	这样你们仍然站在我们这边我真心的说
663	and without hostility is that we know and especially we know in Germany that the aspirations	没有敌意,我们知道,特别是在德国,我们知道,
664	of collaboration with Russia that were pursued so deeply for 20 years on gas on every other	与俄罗斯的合作 20年来一直如此深入地在天然气上
665	commercial level just weren't actually aligned with the truth of that regime and the tragedy	商业层面实际上并不符合政权的真相和悲剧
666	of unaffordability but the worst of anywhere in Europe is in Germany and of all state problems	负担不起,但欧洲任何地方最糟糕的是德国和所有的国家问题
667	in Germany is that politicians on left and politicians on right were too willing to believe	在德国,左派政客和右派政客都不愿相信
668	credulously that Putin could be trusted and that's why they have the highest electricity costs and	相信普京可以被信任这就是为什么他们有最高的电力成本和
669	the highest costs for gas and the worst infrastructure problems in Europe because they were hurt the most	欧洲天然气成本最高,基础设施问题最严重,因为受到的伤害最大
670	by the infliction of reality but not hurt as much as Ukraine but hurt the most among the states	造成现实,但不会像乌克兰那样伤害,而是伤害最深的国家;
671	that are still at peace in Europe and so I say to anyone here and it will be the whole purpose	我对这里的任何人说这都是目的
672	of my speech tonight that if you truly want peace you have to look at the world as it sadly is	我今晚的演讲中说,如果你真的想要和平... ...你就必须看着这个世界,因为它是可悲的
673	and I suppose to that point we can cast our minds and our eyes back to history	我想到这个地步我们可以把我们的思想和眼睛抛回历史
674	and Germany which is where I wanted to start anyway in Berlin has changed the days of the	我想从柏林开始的德国已经改变了
675	clubs and then crawling at 6am to their barracks and driving out to go along the block and the wall	然后早上6点爬到兵营然后开车沿街和墙走
676	to that far and completely unimaginable communist world with their binoculars looking at people	去那个远不可想象的共产主义世界他们的望远镜看着人
677	looking back at them are gone they're gone and they're remembered now only in synth wave and	回头看他们都不见了现在他们只记得在合成波中
678	80s music and nothing they are gone and it's fashionable in speeches such as these	80年代的音乐什么的都没了像这样的演讲很时髦
679	to become extremely fashionable to reference the leopard and so I will do so that for everything	变得非常时尚参照豹所以我会这样做,为了一切
680	to stay the same everything needs to change because life is a series of inexorable conditions	因为生命是一系列不可阻挡的条件
681	there are just some things about this existence that we don't like it would be wonderful to	有一些关于这个存在的东西我们不喜欢它会是美妙的
682	sit down and have coffee with the Russians it would be fabulous it would be sublime	坐下来和俄国人喝咖啡那会是美妙的
683	but the truth is that the Russians are either lying dead on the fields of Ukraine or scattered	但事实是,俄罗斯人不是躺在乌克兰的田野上,就是分散
684	half around the world or living brainwashed or alternatively just in boredom in their own land	半个世界或生活洗脑或者在自己的土地上无聊
685	and the reason why I decided to speak tonight is because you really have to question what it is to	我决定今晚发言的原因是因为你确实要质疑
686	be warlike I think that it might be imagined that people who are speaking in favor of NATO	战争般的,我想也许可以想象那些支持北约的人
687	are warlike that they have all of the rush of childhood toy soldiers they really believe	像战争一样,他们有所有匆忙的童年玩具士兵他们真正相信
688	that all you need to do is just put on a nice uniform and sary out to battle or command other	你只需要穿上漂亮的军装和战利品出战或指挥其他
689	people to do so and the truth is that institutions like NATO so broken as they are are necessary	真相是,像北约这样的机构如此破碎是必需的
690	because they provide us with security in a world which is not composed of people who agree	因为他们为我们提供了安全在一个不是由同意的人组成的世界
691	and the tragedy is that NATO is so unfit now and in chaos obvious chaos between the Atlantic	悲剧是北约现在如此不合适在混乱中大西洋之间明显混乱
692	and Europe obvious chaos inside Europe that it is incapable of delivering that	欧洲内部明显混乱,无法实现
693	I am also very alive to the criticisms that NATO is a force of so-called western power	我也对北约是所谓西方势力的批评非常活跃
694	but I ask you to look at the power of Russia and the power of China and the power of other	但我要你看看俄罗斯的力量,中国的力量, 以及其他的力量
695	states in the world I think that it's it may have been hard to make those arguments before	世界上的州,我认为,它可能很难提出这些论点之前
696	2022 now surely it is impossible and the reason why it must be impossible to allow NATO to remain	2022年现在肯定不可能也不可能让北约留下来
697	as it is and not to reform it not to drastically reform it to go as much as we would desire not to	而不是改革它而不是大幅度地改革它
698	this process of rearmament is because to rearm is not to be warlike	重整军备不是因为战争
699	China has a problem China has a very serious problem which is that they are the ascendant	中国有问题中国有非常严重的问题就是他们是长者
700	in the facilities trap we're here of this all the time it's just an idea but it will cease to be an	在设施陷阱我们在这里这一切的时间它只是一个想法,但它会停止是一个
701	I think in my view if the powers are overly balanced if Europe is separated from America	我认为如果欧洲与美国分离权力是否过于平衡
702	and if the Americans descend into some kind of internal isolation in fact that could make the	如果美国人陷入某种内部隔离,事实上,这可以使
703	United States more likely to go into a conflict with China stability in the international system	美国更可能与国际体系中中国的稳定发生冲突
704	is precious deeply precious we haven't had much of it for 10 years and I think there is there is	十分珍贵我们10年没有吃太多了我想有
705	a sublime darkness to embracing NATO's collapse will be the perfect misstep because without it	接受北约崩溃的黑暗是完美的错误因为没有它
706	for the first time since 1940 the great democratic nations would not be bound by any obligations	自1940年以来,伟大的民主国家首次不再受到任何义务的约束。
707	of defense and it's just as much our obligation Europe is too hubristic we blame the Americans	也正是我们的责任欧洲太傲慢了我们责备美国人
708	all the time we are horrified sometimes rightly by things which get posted at 2 40 a.m. American	我们总是惊恐不已,有时,美国早上2点40分发来的消息,对我们来说是正确的。
709	time by the president but the way to deal with people in international system if you can't sit	由总统决定但如果你坐不下处理国际体系中的人的方法
710	down for coffee is to have enough credibility that they listen to you and we have none we have	喝咖啡要有足够的可信度他们听你的,我们没有
711	none we have not even any centralized political will in Europe I don't know if people here	没有,我们甚至没有任何集中的政治意志在欧洲我不知道这里的人
712	conceive of themselves as Europeans whether you want to remain in the European Union or not	把自己想象成欧洲人不管你是否想留在欧盟
713	but the greatest way to get towards a war in Europe is as difficult as it may seem for us	但在欧洲开战的最好方法对我们来说同样困难
714	to let our relationship with the Americans break apart and the simple way to get people to do what	让我们和美国人的关系破碎和简单的方法让人们做什么
715	you want unfortunately is to have more bombs and more guns and more of everything than they do	很不幸,你想要的是拥有更多的炸弹更多的枪和所有的东西比他们做的
716	it doesn't mean you have to use them the greatest likelihood of having to use them	这并不意味着你必须使用它们使用它们的最大可能性
717	is if you don't have enough of them and that was fine for the last 30 years and I took you at the	如果你不够的话过去30年里都很好我带你去
718	start of this speech to 1989 when the events of 1990 and 1991 and the rest of that year were just	这篇演讲开始到1989年, 当时1990年和1991年的事件以及当年的其余时间
719	unimaginable as the events of the last four or ten years were to people in 2015 in fact if you'd	2015年发生的事情让人无法想象如果你愿意
720	asked any specialist in international affairs about the chance of Donald Trump running for office	向国际事务专家询问唐纳德·特朗普参选的机会
721	much less being elected they would have looked at you like you were crazy so what do we have now	更别提当选了他们会把你当疯子看待的
722	what do we see in the world system the Soviets are gone there is no European strategic autonomy	我们在世界体系中看到的苏联人已经消失没有欧洲的战略自主
723	for those who are against the expansion of nuclear arms the greatest increase in the production of	对于那些反对扩大核武器的国家来说,核武器生产的最大增长是:
724	nuclear warheads since the 80s I mean Reagan would have laughed because the world is unstable	从80年代开始,我是指里根会笑因为世界不稳定
725	and because all of the states find themselves on their own again	因为所有各州都再次独立自主
726	and the solution that I propose is one of respect I don't think that we need to head	我提议的解决办法是尊重我我认为我们不需要带头
727	towards an inexorable conflict with China I think one of the ways you get to a grand bargain over	和中国发生不可饶恕的冲突... ...我想你通过一个大交易的方式之一
728	peace in the world is by having enough strength I wish it weren't so because you have to decide	世界和平是有足够的力量我希望不是因为你决定
729	who you are if you look at the news and despise violence and despise horror and despise human	如果你看新闻轻视暴力轻视恐怖轻视人类
730	suffering then please particularly if you're I'll take you in a second by the way I got this person	特别是如果你是的话我会用我得到这个人的方式来接你
731	to come and then he speaks in abstention it's very difficult um okay just speak	然后他弃权发言这很困难,嗯... ...
732	is it going to be something like the non-native alliance is it going to be more European	它会像非本土联盟一样吗?
733	strategic autonomy is it going to be much like the second speaker in turn towards a sort of	战略自主性将跟第二位演讲者一样
734	UN and more international law thanks um the the answer to which I perhaps was a little bit too	联合国和更多国际法感谢这个答案我也许也有一点点
735	languid in um arriving is of course we keep NATO but if you imagine something to be fit	抵达时的兰吉德当然是北约,但如果你想象出合适的东西
736	you have to observe it just because a person is alive on life support doesn't mean they're fit	你不得不观察它只是因为一个人活着依靠生命维生并不意味着他们是合适的
737	um so even if you despise NATO you should observe it on that basis but to make a	所以即使你鄙视北约... ...你也应该以此为基础观察它... ...但为了...
738	bunch broader claim as I conclude I'll take it the united states be a part of	我的结论是,美国是美国的一部分
739	You create dependence.	你制造依赖。
740	You create dependence by deepening economic integration without	你通过深化经济一体化创造依赖性
741	destruction of labour or product standards.	破坏劳动或产品标准。
742	You pay up and make Europe a force to be reckoned	你付了钱,让欧洲成为一股值得考虑的力量
743	with that can do things on its own, that doesn't need the United States, and you make new alliances	有了它就可以自己做事情, 那不需要美国, 你建立了新的联盟
744	with the Far East, with the Gulf States, with the Global South.	与远东,海湾国家,全球南方。
745	And by the way, the largest	顺便说一句,最大的
746	continent in terms of population by the end of this century will be Africa.	到本世纪末,非洲大陆的人口将成为非洲。
747	I'm getting	我开始
748	that, I'm getting that, I'm nearly there.	那个,我明白了,我快到了
749	The final point to sort of hem it all together	最后一点是把它拼起来
750	roughly is just that if you believe that the use of force is a bad thing and that it's	可能只是如果你认为使用武力是坏事
751	horrifying for human beings to be subject to violence, I promise you I agree with you.	让人类遭受暴力的恐惧我向你保证我同意你的看法
752	But unfortunately we live in a world where people do great evil and we cannot deny it.	但不幸的是,我们生活在一个人们作恶,我们不能否认的世界。
753	We have to approach it and even, dare I say it, to those who are certainly not of my point	我们必须接近它,甚至,我敢说,对那些肯定与我无关的人
754	of view, even as the Soviets did with their great armies, from whatever your political	即使苏联人用他们的伟大军队从你的政治角度
755	perspective, we are heading into the most dangerous period for us as young people.	我们正走向我们年轻人最危险的时期。
756	I	一、导言
757	don't want to go to war.	不想参战
758	That's why I want to have a strong army, strong defence, and	所以我想要一支强大的军队强大的防御力量
759	ultimately to have allies and friends.	最终有盟友和朋友
760	That's the world I believe in.	这就是我所信仰的世界。
761	And if we break away	如果我们分开
762	from it, God help us.	愿上帝保佑我们
763	Thank you Toby for that fine speech.	谢谢你托比的精彩演讲
764	And closing the case for the opposition this evening is	今晚结束对反对派的诉讼
765	David Aronovich.	大卫·阿罗诺维奇.
766	He wrote his own bio.	他写了自己的生记.
767	David has produced, presented and edited factual	大卫编写、介绍和编辑了事实材料。
768	programmes for ITV, the BBC, Channel 4 and Channel 5.	电视台、英国广播公司、第4频道和第5频道的节目。
769	He was a columnist for the Independent,	他是独立派的专栏作家
770	the Guardian, the Observer and the Times.	《卫报》、《观察家报》和《时代报》
771	He has won several awards, but then who hasn't?	他赢得了多个奖项,但谁没有呢?
772	David, you have the ears of the House.	大卫,你有家族的耳朵
773	It's a warm night at last.	终于温暖的夜晚
774	Your exams apparently are imminent.	你的考试显然即将到来
775	You've not got a single speaker	你一个喇叭都没有
776	here who's been interestingly cancelled or is a hero of social media.	或成为社交媒体的英雄。
777	And yet you're	而你却
778	here, which raises the big question which we're all discussing, just what is wrong with	这里,这引起了一个大问题, 我们都在讨论, 只是有什么不对
779	the youth of Britain today?	今天的英国青年?
780	Is it still the convention, Mr President, that I speak to	主席先生,我是否仍然要对
781	thank the previous speakers as the last speaker?	感谢前面的发言者作为最后一位发言者?
782	Do I still do that?	我还能这么做吗?
783	Not necessarily.	不见得.
784	You can shape your speeches you wish.	你可以塑造你想要的演讲。
785	Thank you.	谢谢
786	I still will do it because we've heard some very good speeches.	我仍然会这样做,因为我们听到了一些非常好的发言。
787	We've heard	我们听说了
788	two speeches from people from abroad who speak so well in a language that is not their own,	两次来自国外的演讲讲得这么好语言不是他们自己的,
789	which you may think contrasts a lot with people who speak in this country all the time in	你可能认为与人们的对比很大在这个国家一直说话
790	a language that is their own and not at all well.	一种语言是他们自己的而不是任何好的。
791	However, it wasn't until tonight that	不过,直到今晚
792	I realised that the term please conclude translates in German as noch zwanzig Minuten.	我意识到这个术语最后请用德语翻译为zwanzig Minuten。
793	Anthony Stokes, thank you very much for your very ambassadorial, stirring stories of British	安东尼·斯托克斯, 非常感谢你非常大使, 煽动英国的故事
794	during-do, without which I don't think any Foreign Office speech could possibly be due	在做的时候,没有它,我不认为任何外交部的演讲可能
795	without.	没有。
796	I want to thank Daniel for his, I thought, pugnacious speech.	我想感谢丹尼尔的无耻演讲
797	I also enjoyed	我也很开心
798	the fact that he was militarily laminated as if he was actually out there on the field	事实上,他被军事包裹就像他实际上在野外
799	himself and I particularly like the way he said tanks.	他和我特别喜欢他所说的坦克
800	I want to praise Toby's marvellous	我想称赞托比的奇异之处
801	shoes.	双鞋
802	They are absolutely incredible.	他们是绝对不可思议的。
803	I enjoyed his nightclub manner and I did think that	我很喜欢他的夜总会礼仪我觉得
804	when that war comes, which he is predicting, he may have to change.	当战争到来,他正在预测, 他可能必须改变。
805	Also, he delivered	还有,他送来了
806	himself of that, not the greatest of sins, but one of the great marvels, which is a life	他自己,不是最大的罪过, 而是一个伟大的奇迹,这就是生命
807	is just like line, which wasn't true, a philosophical upgrade on Forrest Gump, but only just.	这和Forrest Gump的哲学升级不一样但只是而已
808	Now,	现在,
809	when I saw the motion, I wondered how the proponents would actually argue their case	当我看到动议时,我想知道支持者们会如何提出他们的理由
810	and what we discover, of course, is there are two and possibly even three completely	我们发现,当然,有两个甚至三个
811	different ideas on the proponents' bench about what the motion actually meant.	关于这个动议的真正含义支持者席上的想法不同
812	Whether	是否为
813	we blame them for that or not is a matter, I think they tended to blame you, actually,	我们责怪他们与否是一件事情, 我认为他们倾向于责怪你,其实,
814	as the president.	作为总统。
815	And that's what being president is all about.	这就是当总统的目的
816	So the first one, essentially,	所以第一个,基本上,
817	from the ambassador was, it's out of date.	从大使那里,它已经过时了。
818	The second one from our comrade from Germany	第二个来自德国的同志
819	is, NATO is a problem, not a cure, and has always been a problem.	北约是个问题,不是解决问题的办法,而且始终是一个问题。
820	And the third one from	第三个来自
821	Toby, I fail completely to be able to summarize.	托比我完全无法总结
822	I'll have to think about it and come back	我要考虑一下再回来
823	to you probably sometime next year.	可能明年某个时候给你
824	Let's just deal very quickly with the out of date	我们快处理一下过时的事吧
825	argument, because it gets to be confusing, because in the end, the speaker is not speaking	因为它会让人困惑因为最后演讲者不会说话
826	for the end of NATO.	北约的终结。
827	He is speaking for an upgrade of NATO, particularly in the field	他要求提升北约,特别是外地
828	of cyber.	网络
829	The only thing I would say about your surprisingly, to me, quixotic speech	我唯一会说的关于你令人惊讶的, 对我来说,夸张的演讲
830	ambassador, is that, of course, NATO hasn't always managed to be particular about how	大使,当然,北约并非总能对如何
831	precisely it's going to police the new cyber thresholds, because we are only just getting	确切地说,它会警示新的网络门槛,因为我们只是得到
832	used to what those cyber thresholds actually mean.	用来表达这些网络阈值的实际含义。
833	But if you think that countries aren't	但是如果你认为国家不是
834	developing and NATO isn't developing some kind of responses, I just would point to you	北约和北约没有做出什么反应,我只想告诉你
835	what is happening in Ukraine.	乌克兰正在发生的一切。
836	What has happened is that a country much smaller than the country	事情是这样的一个比国家小得多的国家
837	attacking it, by an incredible use of technology and improvisation, has stopped that invasion	以惊人的科技和即兴表演攻击它阻止了入侵
838	in its tracks.	在它的轨道上。
839	Of course, it's paid a huge sacrifice to be able to do it, but it's also	当然,它付出了巨大的牺牲才能做到这一点,但它也
840	actually redefined warfare in the cyber period.	网络时期的战争
841	And it is completely naive to believe that	完全天真地认为
842	NATO isn't in the business of trying to do exactly the same.	北约并不想做同样的事情
843	And it seems to me perverse,	在我看来,这是不正常的,
844	actually, to blame it for not doing it quickly enough.	事实上,怪它做得不够快
845	Of course, point of information accepted.	当然,信息点被接受。
846	Where is the architecture in NATO today?	今天北约的建筑在哪里?
847	I'm afraid I don't know what architecture means	恐怕我不知道建筑的意义
848	under these circumstances, so you're going to have to explain it to me.	在这种情况下,你必须向我解释
849	Do you mean what	你是说什么
850	actual things you have in position to do the things that you want it to do?	你有能力做你想做的事吗?
851	I mean a rapid	我是说快速
852	attribution mechanism, a graduated response, a defined threshold, an operational cyber	归属机制,分级响应,设定门槛,操作网络
853	command with real teeth?	用真牙指挥?
854	Where are they?	他们在哪?
855	No, but let us presume that all those things	不,但让我们假设所有这些事情
856	could be developed and will be being developed.	可以开发,并将开发。
857	I'm going to come on to this point in a moment	我马上就要讲这个了
858	because you have some explaining to do as well, as it happens.	因为你也得解释一下事情就是这样发生的
859	But I want to kind of	但我想有点
860	move on to what some of the other arguments are before I come back to deal with that particular	继续谈其他的争论在我回来之前
861	point.	点。
862	I don't understand all the jargon, and I'm not going to pretend to, but I imagine	我不理解所有的术语, 我不会假装, 但我想象
863	all they mean is, what they mean is you have a series of protocols and a series of actions	他们的意思是,他们的意思是你有一个系列协议和一系列行动
864	that people have to take against certain circumstances.	人们必须面对某些情况
865	And my argument at the moment	和我现在的争论
866	would be, it is hardly surprising if a lot of that is actually in flux at the moment	如果现在很多事情在变化之中也就不足为奇了
867	because so much of the world is in flux.	因为世界上很多地方都在变化
868	Your example of Microsoft being able to do things	您的微软能做事情的例子
869	that NATO wasn't able to do being an example, but you've got plenty of examples from Daniel	北约不能做一个榜样, 但你有很多的例子从丹尼尔
870	over there of the things that NATO does do and has got architecture for, which are still	在那边,北约所做的事情和有建筑, 仍然
871	nevertheless valuable, but other things to be developed.	然而,这是很有价值的,但还有其他需要发展的东西。
872	Now, that could be consistent	现在,这可以是一致的
873	with your argument that NATO isn't fit yet for purpose.	你的论点是北约还不适合目的
874	In other words, there are things	换句话说,有些事情
875	that it could conceivably do to be better.	可以想象它会更好
876	I don't think that's what people mean.	岂非众生之意.
877	Hold	别动
878	on a second.	等会儿
879	I don't think that's what people mean when they think about voting for this	我想当人们考虑投票时并不是这个意思
880	motion.	移动。
881	And now I have to proceed.	现在我要继续了
882	It's really important that I do, because although you	这真的很重要,我这样做, 因为尽管你
883	talked about being in Latvia in 2008, you know perfectly well that in 2024, Finland	你很清楚,2024年芬兰
884	and Sweden both voted to join NATO.	瑞典和瑞典都投票决定加入北约。
885	They hardly did it, Mr Ambassador, out of some kind of	他们几乎不这样做,大使先生,出于某种
886	extraordinary naivety about what would happen.	非常天真会发生什么。
887	These are two of the most practical nations	这是两个最实用的国家
888	on the face of the earth.	在地球上的脸上。
889	They did it because they thought being in NATO would give them	他们这样做,因为他们认为在北约会给他们
890	some level of safeguard and some level of contribution also that they would make to	某种程度的保障和某种程度的贡献,它们也将对
891	the collective security, not just of Europe, but of other countries.	不仅欧洲的集体安全,而且其他国家的安全。
892	And that in the end	最终
893	is the thing that NATO actually does.	是北约实际做的事情。
894	It provides a degree of collective security, particularly	它提供了一定程度的集体安全,特别是:
895	to nations who are not superpowers themselves, but have to get together in some kind of way	国家不是超级大国,但必须以某种方式相聚
896	in order to provide some kind of counter amount to the threat that they're going to have.	以提供某种反面相当于他们将面临的威胁。
897	And that's exactly what they've done.	他们就是这样做的
898	And they will be interested and I hope not too	他们将会感兴趣,我希望不要太
899	alarmed to hear that a British ambassador thinks that they're wasting their time, unless	听到英国大使认为他们在浪费时间,很震惊,除非
900	you don't think they're wasting their time, in which case you can vote with us against	你不认为他们在浪费时间这样的话你可以和我们一起投票反对
901	the motion that you've just proposed.	你刚刚提出的动议
902	Now, the second argument that was put forward	现在,提出的第二个论点
903	was by our friend from Germany.	是我们德国的朋友
904	Toby, you're entirely wrong about this.	托比你完全错了
905	This has got nothing	这没什么
906	to do with Ostpolitik.	和奥斯特波利蒂克有关
907	That's from a completely different political part of the spectrum.	这是来自一个完全不同的政治部分的谱。
908	I was brought up in a British communist family.	我在一个英国共产主义家庭长大的
909	In the end of the 50s and beginning of the	50年代末和开始
910	60s, particularly the 60s, they were already in transition at the time, but my house was	60年代,尤其是60年代,他们当时已经处于过渡阶段,但是我的房子是
911	full of books with cartoons of how bad NATO was.	满是卡通漫画的图书,
912	It was full of Germans being re-armed,	它充满了德国人重新武装,
913	so it was ex-Nazis being re-armed by NATO, and it was full of American generals with	北约重新武装了前纳粹分子到处都是美国将军
914	bomb-shaped heads who wanted to blow the entire world up.	炸弹形的脑袋谁想炸毁整个世界。
915	And of course, on the other side,	当然在另一边
916	you know who was on the other side, the peace-loving Soviet Union, who wanted nothing more than	你知道谁在另一边, 热爱和平的苏联, 谁只想要
917	to get rid of nuclear weapons and to have the people's democracies of Eastern Europe	实现东欧人民民主
918	live in peace and comradeliness with the people on the other side of the Iron Curtain.	与铁幕另一边的人民和睦相处,团结相处.
919	That	那个
920	is the tradition that our friend from Germany comes from.	是我们的德国朋友的传统
921	The party that she joined initially	她最初加入的派对
922	in Germany, Die Linke, was what was formed out of the Südstel-Ichester-Einheitsparteis	在德国,Die Linke是苏德斯特尔-伊切斯特-艾因希特斯巴泰斯形成的东西
923	Deutschlands, the old East German Communist Party.	德意志地区,旧东德共产党.
924	It was led by a man called Greg Egisi.	它由一个叫格雷格·埃吉西的人领导.
925	One of the leading members has been a woman called Sarah Wagenknecht.	其中一位主要成员是一位名叫莎拉·瓦根克内赫特(Sarah Wagenknecht)的女性.
926	Sarah Wagenknecht	萨拉·瓦金克内赫特
927	离开Die Linke以组建她自己的政党,即联邦党-Sarah Wagenknecht,即
928	the party of which you are a member.	您所属的政党。
929	Where that party differs, as far as I can see from	党的不同之处, 据我所知
930	Die Linke, is that it is far more anti-immigrant, and we'll come on to what the implications	Die Linke, 意思是它更反移民, 我们会得到什么影响
931	of that are in a moment.	马上就好
932	Now that, I think, is the mindset that you are stuck in.	现在,我想,这就是你所坚持的心态。
933	In some	在某些
934	ways I understand it.	我理解这一点。
935	You come from a Kurdish background.	你来自库尔德人的背景。
936	Your people have suffered at the	你的人民在战争中遭受苦难
937	hands of a NATO member, Turkey.	北约成员国土耳其的手
938	It's not the only country they've suffered at the	这不是他们唯一一个在
939	hands of.	握着手
940	I can understand that bit, but the rest of it is pure Cold War politics turned	我可以理解这一点, 但剩下的是纯粹的冷战政治
941	into modern day politics.	进入现代政治
942	So, we come now to October 2021 and see what the implications	所以,我们现在来到2021年10月,看看会有什么影响
943	of these positions actually amount to.	这些职位实际上相当于。
944	In other words, the things that are being argued	换句话说,正在争论的事情
945	for by the people who are proposing the motion from this point of view.	从这个角度提出动议的人
946	In October 2021,	2021年10月,任,.
947	the US and UK, you've got to be joking, the US and UK shared intelligence of a huge Russian	美国和英国,你一定在开玩笑, 美国和英国分享了一个巨大的俄罗斯人的情报
948	military build-up on the borders of Ukraine, whose territory of Crimea had been illegally	乌克兰边界的军事集结,其克里米亚领土是非法的
949	annexed seven years earlier, and where Russian-armed rebels have been fighting the democratically	以及俄罗斯武装的叛军一直以民主方式与
950	elected government of Ukraine.	乌克兰民选政府。
951	By the way, and just kind of, you know, for jollies, they	顺便说一下,对Jollies来说,他们
952	also managed to shoot down a Dutch airliner, well, an airliner full of Dutch, a Malaysian	还击落了一架荷兰客机一架满载荷兰人的马来西亚客机
953	airliner, and then try and blame it on the Ukrainians themselves.	飞机,然后尝试把它怪罪于乌克兰人自己。
954	I'm sure you were absolutely	我敢肯定,你绝对是
955	adamant that this was a terrible thing for them to do.	坚持这对他们来说是件可怕的事
956	Following the intelligence in	追踪情报
957	early 2022, Emmanuel Macron, Antony Blinken, other people went to Moscow and said, please	2022年初,埃马纽埃尔·麦克伦,安东尼·布林肯,其他人去莫斯科说,请
958	don't do this invasion of Ukraine.	不要这样入侵乌克兰
959	And they were lied to.	他们被骗了
960	They were comprehensively lied	他们被全面骗了
961	to.	改为。
962	The government of your Russian government said, of course we're not going to do anything	俄国政府说我们当然不会做任何事
963	such thing.	这样的事情。
964	It's just complete absolute nonsense and propaganda.	这完全是胡说八道的宣传
965	However, Putin had already	但是,普京已经
966	made a series of speeches saying things like, in his words, Ukraine can't be a proper country	用他的话来说,乌克兰不可能是一个合适的国家。
967	because it can only be a sovereign country in partnership with Russia.	因为它只能是一个主权国家与俄罗斯合作。
968	That's precisely	没错
969	the kind of thing that NATO exists to protect its members from, incidentally, if it's possible	北约的存在是为了保护其成员免受伤害如果有可能的话
970	to do it.	要做到这一点。
971	I enjoy, yes, Toby.	我喜欢,对,托比。
972	Do you accept that if NATO had been fit for purpose in 2022,	你是否接受,如果北约在2022年适合目的,
973	Russians would have made a strategic calculation not to intervene?	俄国人会做出不干预的战略计算吗?
974	No, I believe that if Ukraine	不我相信如果乌克兰
975	had been in NATO in 2022, Russia would have made the decision not to intervene.	2022年在北约,俄罗斯本来会决定不干预。
976	That,	这个
977	I do believe, and so I think probably to you.	我相信,所以我觉得你可能相信。
978	Well, this also happens to be the position	嗯,这也恰好是位置
979	of the politician here from Ukraine, Toby.	来自乌克兰的政治家托比
980	On February the 18th, 2022, there was this	2022年2月18日,发生了这个
981	demonstration.	演示。
982	You talked about it in Berlin.	你在柏林说过的
983	The Berlin Tagesspiel reported our speaker	柏林的塔杰斯皮尔报道了我们的演讲
984	saying this.	说这个。
985	NATO and U.S. were warmongering and war propaganda.	北约和美国在进行战争宣传
986	Your words.	你的话
987	You accused	你指控
988	the German media of spreading the fabricated lies of U.S. intelligence.	德国媒体散布谎言美国情报。
989	Remember that fabricated	记住那个捏造的
990	lie?	撒谎?
991	The fabricated lie was that the Russians were planning to invade Ukraine.	捏造的谎言是俄国人计划入侵乌克兰.
992	That was	这是
993	the fabricated lie you said was fabricated.	你说的谎言是捏造的
994	It turned out to be entirely true, didn't	这完全是真的,不是吗?
995	it?	是吗?
996	At the same time, you defended the Russian troop build-up on the border with Ukraine.	同时,你还保卫了俄军在与乌克兰交界处的集结.
997	You argued that Russia had reacted because Ukraine intended to retake eastern Ukraine	你辩称俄罗斯的反应是因为乌克兰打算夺回乌克兰东部
998	by military means.	通过军事手段。
999	The Kremlin had to be vigilant, quote, in your words, in case there was an	克里姆林宫必须保持警惕用你的话来说以防出现
1000	attack on the Donbass, on the Russian minorities there, and perhaps even on Crimea.	攻击顿巴斯人, 攻击那里的俄罗斯少数民族, 甚至可能攻击克里米亚。
1001	Six days	6天时间
1002	later, after you had made that speech, the Russians invaded Ukraine.	后来,在你发表那篇演说后,俄国人入侵乌克兰.
1003	And what did you	还有你做了什么
1004	say?	说什么?
1005	Afterwards, you said, well, that's a terrible thing for them to do, who could possibly	然后,你说,嗯,这是可怕的事情他们做,谁可能
1006	have known that they would do such a thing, et cetera.	他们知道自己会这样做,
1007	But you praised German protesters	但你称赞了德国的抗议者
1008	who opposed an increase in German military spending, and you described it as madness	他们反对德国军费增加而你却说这是疯狂的
1009	to deliver military weapons to Ukraine.	向乌克兰运送军事武器。
1010	The things that helped save Ukraine, apart from	帮助拯救乌克兰的东西,除了
1011	their own brilliance and their own bravery, was that money you wanted it stopped.	他们自己的才华和勇气是你想要的钱停止。
1012	That's	这是
1013	refusing to yield.	拒绝屈服。
1014	Your party leader addressed a Berlin rally calling for an end to military	你的党魁在柏林集会上呼吁结束军队
1015	supplies to Ukraine and for there to be, magicked up from somewhere, a diplomatic solution.	给乌克兰的物资以及从某个地方得到的一种外交解决方案
1016	But your leader had this problem as well.	但你的领导人也有这个问题
1017	Before that rally, she was dealing with the	在集会前,她正在处理
1018	fact that the manifesto that you had put out for that demonstration had become incredibly	你为示威游行发表的宣言变得不可思议
1019	popular because of support from the extreme right, AFD and other right-wing figures.	由于来自极右派的支持,AFD和其他右派人物而流行.
1020	And	还有
1021	she had to say, we've made clear that right-wing extremist symbols have no place at this rally,	她不得不说,我们已经明确表示, 右翼极端主义的标志在这场集会没有位置,
1022	but of course, everyone is welcome who wants to demonstrate for peace with an open heart.	当然,欢迎所有希望以开放的心向和平示威的人。
1023	I had a footnote here on our own James Orr, your own theologian, the man who said in Hungary	我在这里有一个脚注我们自己的詹姆斯·奥尔, 你自己的神学家, 在匈牙利说的人
1024	last year, now, policy director for reform, I don't care what happens in Ukraine, that's	去年,现在,改革政策总监我不在乎乌克兰发生了什么,那就是
1025	a part of the world I don't care about.	一个我不在乎的世界的一部分
1026	But I'm going to tell you this, this is the politics	但我要告诉你这是政治
1027	今天是NTNTAUTO之战
1028	A red-brown populist coalition which wants to see an end to the US alliance	一个红褐色的民粹主义者联盟希望看到美国联盟的终结
1029	with Europe and other states and will tolerate, tolerate the victories of tyrants over Democrats.	并且将容忍容忍暴君战胜民主党
1030	So let's for a moment imagine, because we have to try and do this, that your vote today	所以,让我们暂时想象一下, 因为我们必须尝试做到这一点,你今天的投票
1031	determines the future of the alliance.	决定联盟的未来。
1032	For some reason, some magic way that happens and	因为某种原因,一些神奇的方式发生,
1033	it's actually going to be that.	其实会是这样的
1034	What do you think, who do you think would be comforted	你觉得谁会得到安慰?
1035	by a vote for the motion and who do you think would be dismayed by a vote for the motion?	对动议进行表决后,你认为谁会因对动议进行表决而感到沮丧?
1036	Let's suppose it were to happen as a consequence of what you did.	假设是因为你的所作所为
1037	Vladimir Putin would be pretty	弗拉基米尔·普京会很漂亮
1038	happy, so would Tucker Carson and the entire grifting crew of the new right US pundits.	塔克·卡森和新来的美国专家都很高兴
1039	Who would be dismayed by such a vote if you were able to take force?	如果你能够使用武力,谁会对这样的投票感到失望?
1040	Ukraine would be	乌克兰将
1041	dismayed by it, Poland would be dismayed, Sweden, Canada, by the way, transatlantic alliance	令波兰失望的是,瑞典、加拿大,顺便说一句,跨大西洋联盟
1042	also includes them, the Baltic countries.	也包括波罗的海国家。
1043	Our closest friends, and not just my closest	我们最亲密的朋友不只是我最亲密的朋友
1044	friends, this House, your closest friends.	朋友们,这房子,你们最亲密的朋友
1045	David, I'm so sorry, can you bring this to	大卫,我很抱歉,你能把这个带到
1046	a close?	差一点?
1047	I have.	没错
1048	Thank you.	谢谢
1049	So a applause.	掌声
1050	Thank you, David, for that fine speech.	谢谢你,大卫,谢谢你的精彩演讲
1051	Now	现在
1052	in this House we vote with our feet.	我们用脚投票
1053	If you're an I, you're to the right.	如果你是一个I,你的权利。
1054	If you're a no,	如果你是拒绝,
1055	you're to the left.	你是左边。
1056	If you want to abstain, please walk through the middle.	如果你想弃权请从中间走过去
1057	We will be	我们会的
1058	announcing results in the bar in roughly five to ten minutes.	大约5到10分钟后在酒吧宣布结果.
1059	There will be complimentary	会有恭维的
1060	chips available.	芯片可用。
1061	The floor speech prize of a £50 voucher at the orator goes to the first	遗嘱上50英镑的台词奖第一次
1062	abstention speaker on the balcony.	阳台上弃权的扬声器
1063	Thank you and good night.	谢谢晚安

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