《经济学人》巴西落入MAGA运动的掌中 [B2] 原声

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P1	《经济学人》巴西落入MAGA运动的掌中 [B2] 原声	8:08

P1 · 《经济学人》巴西落入MAGA运动的掌中 [B2] p01 原声 (P1)

《经济学人》巴西落入MAGA运动的掌中 [B2] p01 原声 (P1)

发布于 2026-10-20 · 时长 8:08

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:02	The Americas, Father, Son and Trump.	美洲,父亲,儿子和特朗普.
0:10	Brazil falls into MAGA's orbit.	巴西落入MAGA的轨道.
0:14	The Bolsonaro clan	博尔索纳罗家族
0:15	and its allies have swept the country's general election.	及其盟友席卷全国大选.
0:21	The end of an era in Brazil may also mark the moment a dynasty truly established its	巴西一个时代的结束也可能标志着一个王朝真正建立其
0:27	hold.	别动
0:27	On October 4th, Brazil's ruling Left-wing Workers' Party, or PT, and its aging leader	10月4日,巴西执政的左翼工人党,即PT及其老化领导人
0:34	Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, were trounced in the second round of the general election.	路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦(英语:Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva)在第二轮大选中被踢倒.
0:40	Flávio Bolsonaro,一位右翼父权主义者Jair,一位前总统和一位
0:47	house arrest for attempting a coup, looks set to become the leader of the world's fourth	因为企图政变而被软禁, 似乎是世界第四

展开字幕全文（115 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	The Americas, Father, Son and Trump.	美洲,父亲,儿子和特朗普.
2	Brazil falls into MAGA's orbit.	巴西落入MAGA的轨道.
3	The Bolsonaro clan	博尔索纳罗家族
4	and its allies have swept the country's general election.	及其盟友席卷全国大选.
5	The end of an era in Brazil may also mark the moment a dynasty truly established its	巴西一个时代的结束也可能标志着一个王朝真正建立其
6	hold.	别动
7	On October 4th, Brazil's ruling Left-wing Workers' Party, or PT, and its aging leader	10月4日,巴西执政的左翼工人党,即PT及其老化领导人
8	Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, were trounced in the second round of the general election.	路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦(英语:Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva)在第二轮大选中被踢倒.
9	Flávio Bolsonaro,一位右翼父权主义者Jair,一位前总统和一位
10	house arrest for attempting a coup, looks set to become the leader of the world's fourth	因为企图政变而被软禁, 似乎是世界第四
11	largest democracy in a run-off on October 25th.	在10月25日的决赛中最大的民主。
12	The defeat was enormous.	失败是巨大的。
13	Lula, as the	卢拉,作为
14	Bolsonaro's 5,571 municipalities, compared with the last election.	与上次选举相比,博尔索纳罗共有5,571个市镇.
15	The Bolsonaro's inaptly named Liberal Party, or PL, almost doubled its seat tally in the	博尔索纳罗不适当地命名为自由党,即PL,几乎将其席位翻了一番,在
16	Senate and cemented its status as the largest party in the lower house.	参议院并巩固了其作为下议院最大政党的地位.
17	Fernando Adade,	费尔南多·阿达德
18	who is sometimes touted as Lula's heir, was beaten by a margin of 26 points in his bid	他有时被说成是卢拉的继承人在出价中被26分的比分击败
19	to oust São Paulo's governor, all but burying his political future.	除了埋葬他的政治前途之外,
20	This dominance puts Flávio in pole position to win the run-off.	这种支配地位使得弗拉维奥处于极点位置,可以赢得径赛.
21	Since Brazil returned	自巴西返回以来
22	to democracy in 1985, no candidate who lost in the first round has gone on to win the	1985年民主选举,没有任何候选人在第一轮中输了
23	second term.	第二学期。
24	Even if Flávio were to lose, the outcome is already a triumph for the Bolsonaro	即使Flávio输了,结果已经是博尔索纳罗的胜利
25	clan.	族谱。
26	Mr Bolsonaro's zealous evangelical wife, his middle and youngest sons and his	博尔索纳罗先生的热忱的福音派妻子他的中年和小儿子
27	brother all won seats in the legislature.	兄弟们都赢得了立法机构的席位
28	There are now nearly enough right-wing senators,	现在右翼参议员已经够多了
29	for the two-thirds majority, needed to impeach Supreme Court justices who prosecuted his	需要弹劾那些起诉他的最高法院法官。
30	father.	父亲
31	The vote was less a reflection of enthusiasm for Flávio than a repudiation	投票没有反映Flávio的热情,
32	of the current government in an election marked by apathy.	在一场充满冷漠感的选举中,
33	Over 33 million of the 158 million	1.58亿人口中超过3 300万
34	eligible voters stayed away, the highest abstention rate since 1998.	合格选民不参加投票,是1998年以来最高的弃权率。
35	Polls published in the week	本周公布的选票
36	of the ballot showed almost a third of voters did not know whom they would back.	在选票上,几乎三分之一的选民不知道会是谁。
37	Outside	外边
38	a polling station in an upscale neighbourhood in Rio de Janeiro, a gloomy 24-year-old described	里约热内卢一个上层街区的投票站,24岁被描述为阴暗
39	the election as having a funeral atmosphere.	这场选举是一场葬礼
40	It's about choosing the lesser evil, shrugged	这是关于选择更小的邪恶灌木
41	his friend.	他的朋友们
42	The PT has been in power for 18 of the past 24 years, and Brazilians are tiring	过去24年里,PT执政了18年巴西人很疲惫
43	of Lula, who at 80 still yearns for a fourth term.	卢拉,他80岁仍然渴望第四个任期。
44	A former trade union leader from Brazil's	巴西前工会领导人
45	poor hinterlands, he has failed to connect to younger middle-class Brazilians who tend	贫穷的内地,他没有连接到年轻的中产阶级巴西人
46	gig work to union jobs and dream of being entrepreneurs.	参加工会工作梦想成为企业家
47	Flávio took 54% of votes among	Flávio在选举中得票54%
48	lower middle-class voters, among Lula's 37%.	中产阶级的下层选民,在卢拉的37%中.
49	Moreover, many voters do not trust the PT on	此外,许多选民不相信PT。
50	the economy and are fed up over graft.	经济和被厌倦了移植。
51	Lula was jailed for corruption in 2018, though his	卢拉在2018年因腐败入狱,虽然他
52	convictions were overturned in 2021.	2021年推翻了定罪。
53	A grubby corruption scandal involving Brazil's biggest	巴西最大的腐败丑闻
54	bank fraud also fuelled anti-establishment sentiment.	银行欺诈也助长了反机构情绪。
55	Though Lula was not directly	虽然露拉不是直接的
56	implicated, it has hurt him.	被牵连了,它伤害了他。
57	A poll in mid-September found that voters were more	9月中旬的一项民意调查发现,
58	likely to punish Lula than Flávio for the scandal.	可能惩罚卢拉比Flávio的丑闻。
59	Lula also lost the support of centrists,	卢拉也失去了中间派的支持,
60	who felt betrayed by the PT, says Maginou Carl of Leveris, a liberal think tank in São Paulo.	他觉得被PT背叛,莱维里斯的马吉努·卡尔(Maginou Carl)说,他是圣保罗的一个自由主义智库.
61	They voted for Lula in 2022, thinking that the government would spend less,	2022年他们投票支持卢拉,认为政府开支会减少,
62	would listen more to other parts of society and would not demonise criticism,	将更多地倾听社会其他部分的声音,不会妖魔化批评,
63	but it didn't happen.	但它没有发生。
64	His spend-thrift policies have pushed up interest rates,	他开销政策推高了利率
65	raising debt costs for households, businesses and the government.	提高家庭、企业和政府的债务成本。
66	Despondency prevails, despite modest real gains in income and record low unemployment.	尽管收入略有实际增长,失业率也创下历史最低记录,但绝望仍然普遍存在。
67	Brazil's rightward shift has continental implications.	巴西的右移具有大陆影响.
68	Since Donald Trump returned to	自从唐纳德·特朗普回到
69	power, all seven presidential elections in the region have been won by like-minded candidates.	该地区七次总统选举都由志同道合的候选人获胜。
70	If Brazil, the last big holdout in South America, comes under the sway of the Donro Doctrine,	如果南美洲最后一个大阻力的巴西受到顿罗理论的影响
71	the United States could gain preferential access to the country's vast trove of rare earths.	美国可以优先进入这个国家巨大的稀土。
72	Flávio is expected to appoint his brother Eduardo as either foreign minister or ambassador to	Flávio将任命他的兄弟Eduardo为外交部长或驻
73	Washington, given his close ties with Steve Bannon and the MAGA movement.	华盛顿,考虑到他与史蒂夫·班农和MAGA运动的密切关系.
74	Even so, there	虽然如此,那里
75	will probably be some continuity in foreign policy.	外交政策的延续性很强
76	No MAGA-aligned leader in South America	南美洲没有与MAGA结盟的领导人
77	has broken relations with China, the biggest buyer of South American commodities.	与南美商品的最大买家中国断绝关系。
78	Brazil is unlikely to buck the trend.	巴西不太可能扭转这一趋势。
79	Though its ties to the European Union could become	尽管它与欧洲联盟的关系可能变成
80	strained over deforestation, this is unlikely to threaten a newly minted free trade deal	因为森林砍伐而紧张,这不太可能威胁到新订的自由贸易协议
81	between the EU and Mercasur, a Brazil-led trade bloc.	欧盟与巴西主导的贸易集团南方共同市场之间。
82	The EU needs all the economic partners it	欧盟需要所有的经济伙伴
83	can get outside China and America, says Sandor Nagy of Corvinus University in Budapest.	布达佩斯科维纳斯大学的桑多尔·纳吉说,
84	At home, the consequences of a Flávio presidency would have a sharper edge.	在国内,弗拉维奥担任总统的后果将更为明显。
85	He could pursue a campaign of vengeance against his father's perceived enemies.	他可以对他父亲的敌人进行报复
86	Among his targets may be Supreme Court justices, soldiers who resisted the coup attempt,	他的目标可能是最高法院法官抵抗政变企图的士兵
87	diplomats who do not kowtow to MAGA, and federal policemen who have investigated the clan.	不向MAGA叩头的外交官和调查过家族的联邦警察
88	Flávio would also be able to shape the country's regulatory agencies and institutions	Flávio还能够组建国家管理机构和机构
89	for a generation due to an unusually large number of vacancies.	由于空缺数量异常之多,造成一代人失业。
90	Up for grabs are four	起来抓四只
91	out of 11 seats on the Supreme Court and two spots on the board of the central bank,	在最高法院的11个席位和中央银行董事会的两个席位中,
92	as well as posts at the securities regulator and antitrust watchdog.	以及证券监管机构和反托拉斯监督机构的职位。
93	The big beneficiary of a Flávio victory would be the economy.	Flávio获胜的最大受益者是经济。
94	Stocks rallied after the results	结果之后的股票
95	were announced, and the currency strengthened.	货币就变强了
96	Investors believe that Flávio and a right-wing	投资者认为,弗拉维奥和右翼
97	Congress will enact a tough fiscal adjustment.	国会将实行严厉的财政调整.
98	Flávio has promised savings worth 1.5% of GDP	Flávio承诺将节省相当于GDP的1.5%
99	over 18 months through privatisations of state-owned firms, a spending cap, and	18个月以上,通过国有公司私有化,支出上限,以及
100	slashing the government.	削去政务.
101	Yet so far details have been thin.	然而,到目前为止,细节还很少。
102	Flávio promises to scrap a large	Flávio答应要拆掉一大块
103	number of taxes, which would shrink revenues.	税收数量,将减少收入。
104	His team has written off a reform of the pension	他的团队取消了养老金改革
105	system, the main item pushing up unsustainable spending.	系统是推动不可持续的支出的主要项目。
106	Congress, which is beholden to lobbies,	国会,它是游说的,
107	appears unwilling to cut tax breaks, which cost 7% of GDP.	似乎不愿意削减税收减免,这花费了国内生产总值的7%。
108	Flávio's advisers have unhelpfully	Flávio的顾问无济于事
109	ruled out delinking social benefits, such as pensions, from the minimum wage.	排除了将养恤金等社会福利与最低工资脱钩。
110	As this rises	随着这种上升
111	inexorably each year, it drives up all other spending indexed to it.	每年,它都不可阻挡地推动着所有其他与它挂钩的支出。
112	Markets will study	市场会研究
113	Flávio's campaign, especially his pick for finance minister.	Flávio的竞选活动,特别是他选的财政部长.
114	Meanwhile, environmentalists,	同时,环保主义者,
115	judges and those who have investigated his family will look on with trepidation.	法官以及那些调查过他家人的人会惊慌失措。

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