《经济学人》古德哈特定律

发布于 2026-08-23 · 时长 6:26

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:19	In a candid presentation in 1975, Charles Goodhart, then of the Bank of England, shared	在1975年的一次坦率的演讲中,当时的英格兰银行的查尔斯·古德哈特分享了
0:27	some of Britain's unhappy experiences after sterling lost its link to the dollar four	英国的一些不愉快经历在英镑失去与四美元的联系后
0:33	years before.	之前的岁月
0:34	Instead of defending an exchange rate, the bank had hoped to use interest rates	银行没有捍卫汇率,而是希望使用利率
0:39	to control the supply of money, variously measured.	控制货币的供应,各种计量。
0:43	But the monetary authorities had	但是货币当局
0:45	ignored what the presenter playfully called Goodhart's Law.	忽略了演讲者所玩弄的古德哈特定律。
0:49	Any observed statistical	任何观察到的统计
0:51	regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.	一旦为控制目的对其施加压力,规律性往往会崩溃。
0:59	Others	其他人员

展开字幕全文（90 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	In a candid presentation in 1975, Charles Goodhart, then of the Bank of England, shared	在1975年的一次坦率的演讲中,当时的英格兰银行的查尔斯·古德哈特分享了
2	some of Britain's unhappy experiences after sterling lost its link to the dollar four	英国的一些不愉快经历在英镑失去与四美元的联系后
3	years before.	之前的岁月
4	Instead of defending an exchange rate, the bank had hoped to use interest rates	银行没有捍卫汇率,而是希望使用利率
5	to control the supply of money, variously measured.	控制货币的供应,各种计量。
6	But the monetary authorities had	但是货币当局
7	ignored what the presenter playfully called Goodhart's Law.	忽略了演讲者所玩弄的古德哈特定律。
8	Any observed statistical	任何观察到的统计
9	regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.	一旦为控制目的对其施加压力,规律性往往会崩溃。
10	Others	其他人员
11	have put this more snappily.	已经把这个更快速。
12	When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.	当一项措施成为目标时,它就不再是一项好措施。
13	The law poses particular difficulties for China, which has many economic targets and	法律给中国带来特别的困难,中国有许多经济目标,而且
14	thus few good measures.	因此,没有多少好措施。
15	In 2018, for example, it began publishing a new monthly gauge of	例如,在2018年,它开始发布一个新的月度测量器:
16	urban unemployment, based, like similar statistics elsewhere, on surveys of the population.	城市失业与其他地方的类似统计数字一样,依据的是人口调查。
17	But	不过
18	unlike other countries' figures, China's measure has remained remarkably stable.	与其他国家的数字不同,中国的衡量标准仍然非常稳定。
19	July's rate of	7月的费率
20	5.2% published on August 17th was typical.	8月17日公布的5.2%为典型.
21	It was less than 6%, but at least 5% for the 99th time	不到6%,但99次至少5%
22	in the past 115 months.	过去115个月
23	Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, when American unemployment climbed	即使在Covid-19大流行期间美国失业率攀升
24	well into double digits, China's measure never exceeded 6.2%.	中方的测量率从未超过6.2%。
25	One reason may be that the survey	原因之一是调查
26	covers only urban workers.	仅覆盖城市工人。
27	The flow of migrants into and out of China's cities gives the urban	进出中国城市的移民潮让城市
28	labour market a homeostatic quality.	劳动力市场具有自律性。
29	When job creation is strong and the unemployment rate	当创造就业机会和失业率强劲
30	is set to fall, more of them turn up, expanding the denominator.	将坠落,它们中更多的出现,扩大分母。
31	Conversely, when the labour	相反,当劳动
32	market is weak, the jobless seek work in the countryside, dropping out of the survey.	市场薄弱,没有工作的人到农村找工作,退出调查。
33	There	那边
34	may be a second reason for the measure's stasis, the pressure placed on it for control purposes.	这可能是措施停滞的第二个原因,为控制目的对其施加的压力。
35	Since 2018, the government has set an annual target for surveyed urban unemployment, usually	2018年起,政府确定年度调查城市失业目标,通常为:
36	around 5.5%, rising to 6% in 2020.	大约5.5%,2020年上升到6%。
37	That gives officials an incentive to keep the rate around	这让官员们有办法保持低薪
38	that figure by hook or by crook.	不管是钩子还是骗子
39	A possibility which cannot be proved but is difficult to dismiss	无法证明但难以驳回的可能性
40	is that the surveyed unemployment rate is being managed in some fashion to reduce volatility,	正在以某种方式管理所调查的失业率,以减少波动,
41	Gavkal Dragonomics的Andrew Batson认为,在最近的一份说明中是一位顾问。
42	The stability	稳定
43	of the unemployment rate is thus a false comfort.	因此,失业率是虚假的安慰。
44	It makes it needlessly difficult to interpret	这不必要地很难解释
45	the biggest job market in the world.	世界上最大的就业市场。
46	Some economists suspect that China's export boom is	一些经济学家怀疑中国的出口繁荣
47	not generating equally strong manufacturing employment.	没有创造出同等强壮的制造业就业。
48	Others think artificial intelligence	其他人认为人工智能
49	may be killing some entry-level white-collar jobs.	可能会杀死一些初级白领的工作。
50	Another worry is that wage growth is not strong	另一个担心是工资增长不强劲
51	enough to stop the economy falling back into deflation.	足以阻止经济重新陷入通货紧缩。
52	All these suspicions would be easier	这些怀疑会比较容易
53	to verify or dismiss if China's unemployment figures were as fluid as its economy.	核实或驳回中国的失业率数字是否与其经济一样流动。
54	Instead,	相反,
55	economists must rely on a variety of more or less unsatisfactory proxies.	经济学家必须依靠各种或多或少不能令人满意的代理人.
56	Mr. Batson has spotted a	巴特森先生发现
57	new one, or rather a revived one.	新的,或者说是一个复活的。
58	He advises looking again at an older gauge, which the	他建议重新审视一个老的测量器,
59	modern survey-based figure was supposed to supersede.	以现代调查为基础的数字本应取代。
60	This measure, which has been collected since 1978,	1978年以来收集的这项措施,
61	counts only those who have registered as unemployed with local authorities, a first step towards	仅将那些在地方当局登记失业的人计算在内,这是朝以下方向迈出的第一步:
62	applying for jobless benefits.	申请失业补助。
63	For decades, this was also a government target and also uncannily	几十年来,这也是政府的目标也疯狂地
64	stable.	稳定
65	With the arrival of surveyed unemployment, it fell into obscurity.	随着被调查失业人员的到来,它陷入了模糊不清的状态.
66	The government stopped	政府停了下来
67	targeting it and even stopped releasing the percentage rate, but once a year the raw number	目标,甚至停止释放百分比率,但一年一次的原始数字
68	of people registered as unemployed still appears in the official database, albeit with a substantial	官方数据库中仍然有登记为失业者的人数,尽管人数很多。
69	lag.	时滞.
70	The number jumped at the end of 2025 to 12.7 million, an increase of almost 16 percent from the	这一数字在2025年底跃升到1 270万,比2000年底增加了近16%。
71	year before.	一年前一年前一年前
72	That total must be interpreted with care.	必须谨慎地解释这一总数。
73	Rule changes in 2020, just before the	规则在2020年的变化,就在
74	pandemic struck, made it easier to register, especially for people living far from their	艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行使登记工作更加容易,特别是对于远离其家园的人而言。
75	place of birth, but no tweaks in the rules explain the more recent increase in registrations,	出生地,但规则中没有调整解释最近的登记增加,
76	argues Mr. Batson.	争辩巴特森先生。
77	The rise would instead seem to represent real stress in the labour market.	相反,这一增长似乎代表着劳动力市场上的实际压力。
78	If so, then this uncharacteristic jump in a once inert statistic may also illustrate a deeper	如果是这样,那么这种无特征的跳跃在一次无效的统计中也可能说明一个更深层次的
79	principle.	原则。
80	When a measure ceases to be a target, Mr. Batson suggests, it becomes a good measure	Batson先生说,当一项措施不再成为目标时,它就会成为一项良好的措施。
81	Call it Batson's corollary to Goodhart's law.	称之为巴特森对古德哈特律法的必然结果.
82	If the registered unemployment number attracts	如果登记失业人数吸引
83	too much fresh attention, of course, the government may stop updating it.	当然,政府可能会停止更新。
84	It has form.	它有形态。
85	When youth	年轻时
86	unemployment figures became a lightning rod for criticism in 2023, the government solved the problem	失业人士成为2023年批评的闪电棒,
87	by suspending them.	暂停执行。
88	Tracking China's economy has never been easy.	追踪中国经济从来就不容易.
89	When a measure becomes a target,	当某项措施成为目标时,
90	it ceases to be a good measure, and when a measure becomes too embarrassing, it ceases to be.	它不再是一个好的衡量标准, 当一个衡量标准变得太尴尬时, 它就不再是。

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