《经济学人》AI算力成新石油!华尔街做市商悄然入场,一场万亿
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剧集目录
| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 《经济学人》AI算力成新石油!华尔街做市商悄然入场,一场万亿 | 9:46 |
P1 · 《经济学人》AI算力成新石油!华尔街做市商悄然入场,一场万亿级市场正在重塑 [C1] p01 原声 (P1)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:06 | Artificial intelligence is changing many things about the modern world. | 人工智能正在改变关于现代世界的许多事物. |
| 0:12 | Language is no exception. | 语言也不例外。 |
| 0:25 | The word compute, for instance, used to be regarded as a verb. | 例如,该词计算曾被视为动词. |
| 0:29 | Today even grammar pedants | 今天甚至连语法小说 |
| 0:31 | are begrudgingly accepted as a noun, referring to the processing power generated by advanced | 被粗鲁地接受为名词,指高级的处理功率 |
| 0:37 | chips. | 筹码. |
| 0:38 | This new non-verbal compute is the fuel of a technological revolution. | 这种新的非语言计算是技术革命的燃料. |
| 0:44 | Demand | 需求 |
| 0:44 | for processing UMF has surged and it is in short supply. | 用于加工的UMF已经激增,而且供应不足。 |
| 0:49 | About $360 billion was spent | 花了大约3600亿美元 |
展开字幕全文(135 条)
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Artificial intelligence is changing many things about the modern world. | 人工智能正在改变关于现代世界的许多事物. |
| 2 | Language is no exception. | 语言也不例外。 |
| 3 | The word compute, for instance, used to be regarded as a verb. | 例如,该词计算曾被视为动词. |
| 4 | Today even grammar pedants | 今天甚至连语法小说 |
| 5 | are begrudgingly accepted as a noun, referring to the processing power generated by advanced | 被粗鲁地接受为名词,指高级的处理功率 |
| 6 | chips. | 筹码. |
| 7 | This new non-verbal compute is the fuel of a technological revolution. | 这种新的非语言计算是技术革命的燃料. |
| 8 | Demand | 需求 |
| 9 | for processing UMF has surged and it is in short supply. | 用于加工的UMF已经激增,而且供应不足。 |
| 10 | About $360 billion was spent | 花了大约3600亿美元 |
| 11 | on AI compute last year around the world, according to Boston Consulting Group, about | 据波士顿咨询集团说, |
| 12 | than on copper. | 比铜上。 |
| 13 | By 2030 BCG expects $2.3 trillion in transactions, roughly the size of the global | 到2030年,卡介苗预计交易额为2.3万亿美元,大致相当于全球交易额。 |
| 14 | trade in crude oil today. | 今天的原油贸易。 |
| 15 | For all its impressive size, however, the compute market lacks sophistication. | 然而,计算市场的规模令人印象深刻,但缺乏精密度。 |
| 16 | The hyperscalers are still a somewhat arcane piece of IT jargon for a handful of giant | 超标器仍然是 信息技术术语中一个有点尖端的部分 对于少数巨型 |
| 17 | cloud computing providers, including Amazon, Google and Microsoft, and frontier AI labs such | 云计算供应商,包括亚马逊、谷歌和微软以及前沿AI实验室 |
| 18 | as Anthropic and OpenAI make deals for tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars of compute. | 作为Anthropic和OpenAI的交易 数百甚至数千亿美元计算。 |
| 19 | But such arrangements are unavailable to thousands of smaller firms. | 但数以千计的小公司没有这种安排。 |
| 20 | Buyers and sellers also have few | 买卖双方也很少 |
| 21 | of the derivatives that in established markets allow them to hedge their exposures and speculate. | 在既定市场上允许其套期保值和投机的衍生工具。 |
| 22 | The compute supply chain then looks ripe for marketisation. | 计算出供应链之后,市场化的时机已经成熟。 |
| 23 | In the most simple form, chipmakers | 最简单的是,芯片制造者 |
| 24 | like Nvidia and AMD sell advanced AI semiconductors to equipment manufacturers such as Dell and Hewlett | 如Nvidia和AMD将高级AI半导体出售给戴尔和休利特等设备制造商 |
| 25 | Packard Enterprises,将硅包装成架子和服务器,出售给数据中心 | |
| 26 | operators. | 操作员。 |
| 27 | Besides the hyperscalers, those include a few large neo-clouds, | 除了超标外 还包括几个大新云 |
| 28 | one more linguistic innovation denoting independent providers like CoreWeave and Nebius, | 又一个语言创新 表示独立供应商,如CoreWeave和Nebius, |
| 29 | and hundreds of smaller, less well-known firms. | 以及数百家规模较小、不太知名的公司。 |
| 30 | The operators in turn rent out access to compute | 接线员转而租出去计算 |
| 31 | to customers for a fixed period, often several years. | 给顾客的固定期限,往往是几年。 |
| 32 | Customers range from the hyperscalers, | 顾客从超规模的, |
| 33 | which supplement their in-house compute with rentals, to start-ups running open source AI models. | 用租赁来补充他们内部的计算, 用于启动企业运行开源AI模型。 |
| 34 | So far so simple in theory. | 目前为止,理论上很简单。 |
| 35 | In practice, things quickly get complicated. | 实际上,事情很快就变得复杂了。 |
| 36 | That is because compute | 那是因为计算 |
| 37 | is heterogeneous. | 异质的。 |
| 38 | Different chips are sold in different servers, at different locations | 不同的芯片在不同服务器上销售,地点不同 |
| 39 | for different time periods. | 不同时间段。 |
| 40 | Matching buyers and sellers is finicky. | 买家和卖家的配对很刺激 |
| 41 | Every business that needs | 每个需要的生意 |
| 42 | processing power has a compute guy, or several, buying second-hand capacity through an opaque | 处理电源有一个或几个计算员,通过不透明方式购买二手电源 |
| 43 | network of middlemen. | 中间人网. |
| 44 | Many of these informal brokers, some shadier than others, tout their | 许多这些非正式经纪人,有些比其他经纪人更阴暗,说他们 |
| 45 | 通过WhatsApp和Telegram等信息应用提供. | |
| 46 | The whole thing looks less like | 整件事看起来不太像 |
| 47 | trading a high-tech commodity and more like peddling illegal drugs. | 交易一种高科技的商品 更像是卖毒品 |
| 48 | In a market that is so | 在这样一个市场里 |
| 49 | and immature, providers and purchasers alike prefer the safety of long-term contracts. | 供应商和买方都倾向于长期合同的安全。 |
| 50 | On paper, these guarantee capacity to users and revenues for themselves. | 从纸面上看,这些保障能力是用户的,也是他们自己的收入。 |
| 51 | In reality, | 事实上, |
| 52 | given how fast the technology and the market of AI are evolving, it is hard to tell how much deals | 鉴于人工智能的技术和市场发展的速度有多快,很难说出有多少交易 |
| 53 | are worth. | 这是值得的。 |
| 54 | Today's buyers and sellers may not be around in a few years to honour their commitments. | 今天的买家和卖家在几年内可能无法兑现承诺. |
| 55 | The surging yields on core weaves bonds highlight the uncertainty. | 核心交织债券的增产凸显了不确定性。 |
| 56 | Who will make a killing? | 谁会杀人? |
| 57 | And who may not make it at all? | 谁会活不下去? |
| 58 | With lenders struggling to price risk, | 随着贷款人挣扎于价格风险, |
| 59 | many smaller operators buying and renting compute face double-digit interest rates. | 许多较小的经营者购买和租赁计算,面临两位数的利率。 |
| 60 | Fortunately for everyone involved, proper markets are being built around the compute supply chain. | 幸运的是,在计算供应链周围正在建立适当的市场。 |
| 61 | Some budding bosses, such as Compute Exchange, list GPUs, the increasingly familiar shorthand | 一些萌芽的老板,如计算交换, 列出GPU, 越来越熟悉的短手 |
| 62 | for graphics processing units, AI's silicon workhorse by location, rental duration, price | 对于图形处理单元,AI按地点、租赁期限、价格分类的硅马 |
| 63 | and availability. | 和可用性。 |
| 64 | Titans of global derivatives trading, including CME Group and the Intercontinental | 包括CME集团和洲际 |
| 65 | Exchange, hope to launch their own compute futures. | 交换,希望推出自己的计算未来. |
| 66 | They have teamed up with startups | 他们和初创企业结为伙伴 |
| 67 | pioneering compute indices. | 率先计算指数。 |
| 68 | Pegged to the rental price of popular AI chips, | 以流行AI芯片的租金为代价 |
| 69 | they await regulatory approval. | 他们等待监管批准。 |
| 70 | Rather than wait for exchange traded derivatives to be approved, | 而不是等待外汇交易衍生工具获得批准, |
| 71 | some compute market pioneers are creating over-the-counter instruments of the sort | 一些计算出来的市场开拓者 正在制造一种场外的仪器 |
| 72 | common in credit and foreign exchange markets. | 常见于信贷和外汇市场。 |
| 73 | In March, a startup called Aneira Labs arranged | 3月,一个叫做Aneira Labs的启动机构安排 |
| 74 | a six-figure pilot trade for June with Falcon X, a cryptocurrency broker, | 6月与密码货币经纪人Falcon X进行6位数的试点交易, |
| 75 | 基于Nvidia流行的H100 GPU的未来租价. | |
| 76 | Luxor, another startup, | 鲁克索,又一个开始 |
| 77 | offers operators swap-like contracts that guarantee fixed cash flow per server per hour. | 提供运营商互换式合同,保证每个服务器每小时固定现金流量. |
| 78 | If the spot price for computers below the price agreed in the swap, | 如果计算机的现货价格低于交换中商定的价格, |
| 79 | the operator is paid the difference. | 接线员领取差额。 |
| 80 | If the spot price is higher, it is the operator that pays. | 如果现货价格较高,则由经营者支付。 |
| 81 | This payment explains Ethan Vera, one of the firm's co-founders, may, for example, be made | 这笔钱可以解释公司联合创始人之一的伊森·薇拉,比如说,可能要支付 |
| 82 | through a revenue sharing arrangement. | 通过收入分享安排。 |
| 83 | Luxor's bespoke derivatives are modest for now in the | 鲁克索的口号衍生物现在很温和 |
| 84 | tens of millions of dollars, but the potential is vast. | 几千万美元,但潜力很大。 |
| 85 | As American exchanges await the thumbs | 当美国交易所等待拇指 |
| 86 | up from regulators, upstarts are getting off the ground elsewhere. | 从监管者开始,上线开始在别处落地。 |
| 87 | From its exchange in Bermuda, | 从百慕大的交易所, |
| 88 | Architect Financial Technologies, founded in 2023, offers futures in compute linked to the value of | 建筑师金融技术公司成立于2023年,提供与价值挂钩的期货 |
| 89 | chips in America. | 美国的芯片。 |
| 90 | The firm has also recently launched a platform where model makers bid to | 该公司最近还推出了一个平台,让模型制作人参与其中。 |
| 91 | provide inference, the useful output produced by an AI model in response to a prompt, rather than | 提供推论,说明AI模型针对一个即时的而不是 |
| 92 | underlying compute capacity. | 基本计算能力。 |
| 93 | 公司创始人兼老板Brett Harrison认为 | |
| 94 | inference may prove easier to standardise than compute. | 推论可能比计算更容易标准化。 |
| 95 | Given the uncertainty surrounding the | 鉴于目前情况不明朗, |
| 96 | all-new market, it is attracting risk-takers. | 全新市场,它吸引了冒险者。 |
| 97 | Many, including Mr Harrison, spent time in crypto. | 包括Harrison先生在内的许多人在密码室呆了很长时间。 |
| 98 | Once the most compute-intensive enterprise out there, which attracted financial engineers, | 曾经是最计算密集型的企业 吸引了金融工程师 |
| 99 | trying to turn processing power into a tradable asset. | 试图将处理能力转化为可交易资产。 |
| 100 | Harrison先生是美国FTX公司的总裁 | |
| 101 | the American arm of the crypto exchange founded by Sam Bankman Freed, resigning two months before | Sam Bankman Freed创建的密码交易所的美国分支 两个月前辞职 |
| 102 | the parent firm's bankruptcy amid fraud in November 2022. | 2022年11月母公司在欺诈中破产. |
| 103 | Luxor once primarily served Bitcoin miners. | 卢克索曾经主要服务于比特币矿工. |
| 104 | One of Aneera's co-founders, Vishwa Naik, was a crypto entrepreneur. | 阿内拉的联合创始人之一的维什瓦·奈克(Vishwa Naik)是一位密码企业家. |
| 105 | Corweave and some other | 科瑞夫和别的 |
| 106 | neoclouds also began life as crypto mining businesses. | 新云也开始了隐秘采矿业的生活。 |
| 107 | As opportunities grow, established | 随着机会的增加,建立起来 |
| 108 | financial companies are taking more of an interest. | 金融公司越来越感兴趣。 |
| 109 | DRW和Jump Trading,两个大型市场制造商, | |
| 110 | have both invested in Silicon Data, the compute-focused research firm with which CME hopes | 两者都投资于硅数据公司,这是计算重点研究公司,CME希望与该公司合作 |
| 111 | to launch its futures. | 以启动它的未来。 |
| 112 | Each market trader has also assembled its own team to trade the new | 每个市场贸易商也聚集了自己的团队来进行新的贸易 |
| 113 | commodity. | 商品。 |
| 114 | 这个月,Jump Trading公司收购了EtoMarkets公司。 | |
| 115 | founders will lead its efforts to break into the new industry. | 创始人将领导其突破新产业的努力. |
| 116 | David Olson, Jump's investment chief, | 大卫·奥尔森,跳跃的投资主管, |
| 117 | points out that the market will grow more rapidly with the right institutions, | 指出市场将随着合适的机构而更快增长, |
| 118 | such as clearing houses that limit the risk of blow-ups by ensuring that contracts are honoured | 例如通过确保履行合同来限制井喷风险的信息交换所 |
| 119 | by both sides of a trade. | 由交易双方。 |
| 120 | We're a long way from that, he acknowledges, echoing many in this | 他承认,我们离这个还有很长的路要走, |
| 121 | industry who think it may take years or even decades for the market to mature. | 他们认为市场要成熟可能需要几年甚至几十年的时间。 |
| 122 | But, he adds, | 但是,他补充说, |
| 123 | we want to be part of that discussion. | 我们想参与讨论。 |
| 124 | His desire is unsurprising. | 其欲无惊. |
| 125 | After all, with surging demand | 毕竟,随着需求激增 |
| 126 | for what remains a scarce commodity and with so many businesses around the world exposed to it, | 因为它仍然是一种稀缺的商品 世界上有这么多的商家都接触到它 |
| 127 | the price is enormous. | 代价是巨大的。 |
| 128 | Mr Naik of Aneera, who in his pre-crypto days was an oil trader at | Aneera的Naik先生,他在临终前是一位石油贸易商 |
| 129 | Reliance Industries, an Indian conglomerate, likens today's moment in the compute market | 依赖工业,一个印度企业集团, 类似今天在计算市场的时刻 |
| 130 | to the last days of the Seven Sisters, a cartel of Western giants that ruled the global petroleum | 统治全球石油的西方巨头集团 |
| 131 | trade between the late 1920s and the 1970s. | 20世纪20年代末至70年代的贸易。 |
| 132 | Their chokehold was broken by nationalisation | 国家化打破了他们的窒息状态 |
| 133 | in many exporting countries and the rise of the open oil market just about everywhere. | 在许多出口国,开放石油市场的崛起几乎无处不在。 |
| 134 | As governments covetously eye the AI labs and ventures like Aneera attempt to create a market | 当政府贪婪地注视着AI实验室 以及像Aneera这样的企业 试图创造市场 |
| 135 | from scratch, you do not need to squint too hard to see a similar future for compute. | 从头到尾,你不需要太难看 以看到类似的未来来计算。 |
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