7-16 特朗普关于霍尔木兹海峡的新计划 | BBC全球新闻
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC World Service. | 欢迎收看英国广播公司世界服务的全球新闻播客。 |
| 0:03 | Today I'm joined by our | 今天我加入我们 |
| 0:05 | business editor, Simon Jack. | 商业编辑,西蒙杰克。 |
| 0:07 | Simon, Donald Trump effectively trying to exert more control | 西蒙,唐纳德·特朗普 有效地试图施加更多的控制 |
| 0:11 | over the Strait of Hormuz. | 在霍尔木兹海峡上空 |
| 0:13 | What impact has that had? | 这有什么影响? |
| 0:14 | Well it's seen a decline in the number of ships getting through. | 舰只数量下降 |
| 0:20 | If we go back to the | 如果我们回到 |
| 0:20 | dark days of May when it was effectively totally shut, you used to see 60 to 80 vessels getting | 5月的黑暗日子,当它实际上完全关闭, 你过去看到60到80艘船 |
| 0:27 | through every day. | 每天都会这样 |
展开字幕全文（180 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC World Service. | 欢迎收看英国广播公司世界服务的全球新闻播客。 |
| 2 | Today I'm joined by our | 今天我加入我们 |
| 3 | business editor, Simon Jack. | 商业编辑,西蒙杰克。 |
| 4 | Simon, Donald Trump effectively trying to exert more control | 西蒙,唐纳德·特朗普 有效地试图施加更多的控制 |
| 5 | over the Strait of Hormuz. | 在霍尔木兹海峡上空 |
| 6 | What impact has that had? | 这有什么影响? |
| 7 | Well it's seen a decline in the number of ships getting through. | 舰只数量下降 |
| 8 | If we go back to the | 如果我们回到 |
| 9 | dark days of May when it was effectively totally shut, you used to see 60 to 80 vessels getting | 5月的黑暗日子,当它实际上完全关闭, 你过去看到60到80艘船 |
| 10 | through every day. | 每天都会这样 |
| 11 | Now that went to almost zero and then when you had the so-called | 现在几乎是零 然后当你有了所谓的 |
| 12 | memorandum of understanding that crept up to about 30 to 50, we're back down in the | 谅解备忘录规定, 大约30到50年, 我们回到了 |
| 13 | single digits at the moment. | 目前为单位数. |
| 14 | Having said that, it's quite hard to accurately monitor the | 说到这个 很难准确监控 |
| 15 | crossings. | 过境点。 |
| 16 | A lot of ships will turn off their transponder, their tracking devices, but certainly | 很多舰只会关闭他们的转发器 追踪装置 但当然 |
| 17 | Donald Trump's claim that oil is flowing like never before is pretty inaccurate. | 唐纳德·特朗普声称石油的流量从未像现在这样,这相当不准确. |
| 18 | The result | 结果 |
| 19 | of that is that we've seen oil prices which went from the heights of $120 a barrel all | 石油价格从每桶120美元高点开始 |
| 20 | the way down to $70 and almost below and we're now at $86. | 下到70美元 下到几乎下,我们现在是86美元。 |
| 21 | For my money, it's pretty odd | 为了我的钱,这很奇怪 |
| 22 | that the oil price isn't actually higher than it is. | 油价并没有比现在高 |
| 23 | I think the reason for that is that | 我认为原因就是 |
| 24 | every time we get close to a real pinch point, there is some kind of backing off from the | 每次我们接近一个真正的临界点 都会有某种后退 |
| 25 | US President. | 美国总统。 |
| 26 | For example, he said he was going to reimpose the blockade. | 例如,他说他打算重新封锁。 |
| 27 | He was going | 他本来要去的 |
| 28 | to say anything that goes through, anything non-Iranian as well, would attract a 20% tariff. | 说出任何经过, 任何非伊朗人, 将吸引20%的关税。 |
| 29 | Well the world didn't like the look of that one bit and in fact he backtracked from that | 嗯,世界不喜欢那一点的外表 事实上,他从那回溯 |
| 30 | and said instead of doing that, he was going to basically secure trade deals with the Gulf | 并说,与其这样做, 他基本上 要保证交易 与海湾 |
| 31 | States which would compensate the US for helping to get their oil, their exports, their | 将补偿美国帮助获取其石油、出口、 |
| 32 | crucial currency that they need through the Gulf. | 关键货币 他们需要通过海湾。 |
| 33 | But all of this is pretty vague. | 但这一切都相当模糊。 |
| 34 | It | 这个 |
| 35 | changes on an hour-by-hour basis but at the moment oil price is not where it's been at | 时而变化,但此时油价已不在 |
| 36 | the height of the conflict but nevertheless elevated from when we saw the memorandum of | 冲突达到高峰,但从我们看到《谅解备忘录》之时起,冲突升级。 |
| 37 | understanding. | 谅解 |
| 38 | Yes, as you say, it was a sort of huge U-turn within the last 24 hours where he said there | 是的,就像你说的,这是一种巨大的U -转弯 在过去24小时内,他说在那里 |
| 39 | was going to be these 20% tariffs. | 将会是20%的关税。 |
| 40 | Then he backtracked and talked about these trade deals. | 然后他回过头来谈这些交易 |
| 41 | Are these trade deals real or are they just something that he's come up with without much | 这些交易是真实的 还是他想出来的 |
| 42 | consultation with officials? | 与官员磋商? |
| 43 | I've got to tell you, no one really knows what he means by that. | 我得告诉你,没人真正知道他的意思 |
| 44 | Now there is no overarching | 现在没有了 |
| 45 | trade deal between the GCC, the group of Gulf countries. | 海湾合作委员会、海湾国家集团之间的贸易交易。 |
| 46 | There are some individual deals | 有些个人交易 |
| 47 | on things like AI chips and food with individual countries. | 比如人工智能芯片 和与个别国家的食品 |
| 48 | It's quite hard to see how big | 很难看它有多大 |
| 49 | trade deals come out of nowhere in the kind of time scale you would need to make an immediate | 贸易交易从哪里冒出来 时间尺度你需要 立即 |
| 50 | impact on what's going on. | 影响一切。 |
| 51 | Trade deals usually take a very long time to conclude. | 通常需要很长时间才能完成贸易交易。 |
| 52 | So there | 就这样 |
| 53 | are individual agreements with Gulf state countries but I think trying to pull together | 是和海湾国家单独签订的协议 但我想是想联合起来 |
| 54 | sort of massive trade deals which would compensate the US into the hundreds of billions of dollars | 一种大规模的贸易交易 可以补偿美国数千亿美元 |
| 55 | which is what he said I think is quite hard to conjure with and I don't know anyone who's | 这就是他说的 我觉得很难和谁一起 |
| 56 | told me the detail of how that would actually work. | 告诉了我如何实际运作的细节。 |
| 57 | As you say, very little oil seems to be getting through the Strait of Hormuz. | 正如你说的, 很少的石油 正在进入霍尔木兹海峡。 |
| 58 | People have | 人们有 |
| 59 | been burning through their stockpiles. | 被烧穿他们的储存。 |
| 60 | At some point they're going to reach the end | 在某个时候,他们会走到尽头 |
| 61 | aren't they? | 不是吗? |
| 62 | There's going to be a crisis. | 会有危机的 |
| 63 | Well it's very interesting this because if we go back to sort of April May, you had the | 嗯,这很有趣 因为如果我们回去 某种四月的5月, 你得到了 |
| 64 | International Energy Agency saying that this crisis was going to be worse than all the | 国际能源机构说,这场危机将比所有 |
| 65 | before back in the early 70s and the 80s and the tank wars of 2008 and it was going | 在70年代和80年代 以及2008年的坦克战争中 |
| 66 | to cause a global economic crisis. | 引发全球经济危机。 |
| 67 | It didn't happen. | 没有发生 |
| 68 | Now what's very interesting about | 现在有趣的是 |
| 69 | that it turns out that the world energy supply network proved itself to be more resilient | 事实证明,世界能源供应网络具有更强的弹性 |
| 70 | than thought and that one another big factor which is perhaps under reported is the role | 和另一个重要因素 也许被报告 的作用 |
| 71 | of China in all of this. | 中国在这一切。 |
| 72 | Now China obviously a massive consumer of energy. | 现在中国显然是一个巨大的能源消费国. |
| 73 | It managed to | 它设法 |
| 74 | draw down on its reserves as you say but also moderate demand in China in a way that hasn't | 照你说的削减储备 但中国也有温和的需求 |
| 75 | damaged its economy. | 破坏其经济。 |
| 76 | So I think if you want to read what's going to happen next I think | 所以我想如果你想读读接下来会发生什么 |
| 77 | that seeing what China does next with its own demand, what's happening with its reserves | 看看中国接下来会做什么 自己的需求, 和它的储备发生了什么 |
| 78 | is actually crucial to seeing whether we re-escalate to oil prices which actually create an economic | 实际上,对于我们是否重新攀升到油价,从而真正形成经济繁荣,至关重要。 |
| 79 | crisis. | 危机。 |
| 80 | It's not just oil remember that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. | 穿越霍尔木兹海峡的不仅仅是石油记忆. |
| 81 | It's lots of | 这是很多 |
| 82 | other products like fertiliser for food and it is interesting that you've seen wheat prices | 其他产品,如食用肥料 有趣的是,你已经看到小麦价格 |
| 83 | begin to pick up again this week. | 这周又开始恢复了 |
| 84 | Now some of that is to do with Ukrainian attacks in | 现在,其中一些 与乌克兰的攻击 |
| 85 | the Black Sea on Russian ships, big exporter of wheat. | 俄罗斯船上的黑海 小麦大出口国 |
| 86 | But it's such a complex picture | 但这是这么复杂的画面 |
| 87 | but what is interesting is that this so-called worst crisis in oil supply in history according | 但有趣的是 历史上石油供应最严重的危机 |
| 88 | to the IEA did not translate yet at least into the kind of economic crisis that some | 对国际能源机构来说,至少尚未转化为某些经济体的经济危机。 |
| 89 | predicted and a lot of people have kind of got headline fatigue about this in the sense | 预言和很多人 有点头条疲劳 从这个意义上来说, |
| 90 | that they're saying oh here we go, one day it's this, one day it's that, da da da. | 他们说,哦,我们走了,有一天,它是这个,有一天,是那个,达达达。 |
| 91 | So they're reluctant to react too violently to anything because they know it could be | 所以他们不愿意对任何事太激烈的反应 因为他们知道可能是 |
| 92 | reversed tomorrow. | 倒转明天。 |
| 93 | So I'm not saying that there is no potential economic crisis here, | 我不是说这里没有潜在的经济危机 |
| 94 | maybe there is but it hasn't materialised yet and the way the world supplies its oil | 也许有,但它还没有实现 和世界供应石油的方式 |
| 95 | what have you has proven pretty nimble, put it agile and pretty resilient to this point. | 你所证明的很敏捷 让它灵活灵活 |
| 96 | The Iranians have regarded the Strait of Hormuz pretty much as their trump card but they do | 伊朗人把霍尔木兹海峡看成是他们的王牌,但他们确实 |
| 97 | have potentially another card up their sleeve which they're starting to talk about which | 他们的袖子上还有一张牌 他们开始谈论 |
| 98 | is if they could persuade their allies the Houthi rebels to close the Bab al-Mandeb crossing. | 如果他们能说服盟友 胡塞叛军关闭曼德布过境点 |
| 99 | That could feed into this badly. | 这可能会很严重 |
| 100 | Yeah this could escalate things significantly because if you look at a map of the Middle | 是啊,这可能会让事情升级很大 因为如果你看一张地图 |
| 101 | East you've got Saudi Arabia if you like going down the middle with the Persian Gulf on its | 东边有沙特阿拉伯 如果你喜欢和波斯湾一起走 |
| 102 | right and the Red Sea on its left, Saudi Arabia has a coastline on both of those sides. | 沙特阿拉伯有两条海岸线, |
| 103 | On | 打开 |
| 104 | the other side of the Red Sea is Yemen and Iran has proxy interests there in the Houthis | 红海的另一边是也门 伊朗在胡塞河有代理利益 |
| 105 | who over several years have been bombarding shipping from time to time and if you were | 几年来一直在轰炸 航运不时。 |
| 106 | to cut that off as well as that then Strait of Hormuz is about 20% then Red Sea and Bab | 以及那个霍尔木兹海峡 大约20% 然后红海和巴布 |
| 107 | al-Mandeb is maybe 8 to 10% then you've obviously got two important choke points. | mandeb大概是8到10% 那么你显然有两个重要的窒息点 |
| 108 | What I would | 我会怎么做? |
| 109 | say is that because of the repeated attacks over the last few years from Houthis on some | 说,因为过去几年中,胡塞斯一再袭击一些 |
| 110 | of that traffic a lot of people have found other ways to go through so they'll go north | 很多人已经找到其他途径 以便他们去北方 |
| 111 | rather than south from there so go north up towards the Suez Canal rather than south into | 而不是从那里往南,所以向北往苏伊士运河,而不是向南进入 |
| 112 | the Gulf of Aden's geography lesson here which we're all learning ourselves aren't we. | 亚丁湾的地理学课 我们学习的不是自己 |
| 113 | So | 这么说 |
| 114 | yes definitely a potential escalatory move they could make but as I say people have found | 是的,肯定是一个潜在的 升级动作,他们可以做 但我说人们已经发现 |
| 115 | themselves quite resilient and kind of got used to a little bit of trouble through that | 自己有很强的韧性 也习惯了通过这个小麻烦 |
| 116 | bit and have found other ways to go north rather than south. | 并且找到了其他方法去北方而不是南方。 |
| 117 | Mr Trump is a businessman | 川普先生是个商人 |
| 118 | he's written books on the art of negotiation. | 他写过谈判艺术的书 |
| 119 | Is his strategy working and what do we think | 他的策略可行吗? |
| 120 | he actually wants because it depends what his objective is as to whether his strategy | 他实际上想要的 取决于他的目标是否是他的策略 |
| 121 | is working. | 正在运行。 |
| 122 | He's under a lot of pressure politically to prove that the net resilience | 他受到很多政治压力 来证明净应变能力 |
| 123 | result of this war is not to make Iran a more powerful player than it was before. | 这场战争的结果不是让伊朗成为比以前更强大的角色. |
| 124 | Clearly | 很明显 |
| 125 | you've got one set of objectives about never having a nuclear weapon and we can talk about | 你有一个目标 永远没有核武器 我们可以谈谈 |
| 126 | that slightly different issue but a lot of people would say that Iran have had what they | 但很多人会说,伊朗拥有他们拥有的东西 |
| 127 | may have thought already but has certainly had it confirmed that they've got an incredibly | 也许已经想过了,但肯定已经确认 他们有一个惊人的 |
| 128 | powerful weapon in the control of the Strait of Hormuz and the worst political outcome | 控制霍尔木兹海峡的强大武器和最恶劣的政治结果 |
| 129 | for him is that the current regime stays in place, they don't get the enriched uranium | 对他来说,现在的政权是维持不变的 他们得不到浓缩铀 |
| 130 | and Iran emerges with a greater sense of its own economic power than it went in with. | 并且伊朗的出现 有着比它更强的经济实力感 |
| 131 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 132 | think that's why he's sort of if you like continuing to sort of keep up the rhetoric | 所以他才喜欢继续说这些 |
| 133 | that we control it. | 我们控制它。 |
| 134 | So really this Middle East thing has now become a battle of who | 所以说,这个中东的事情 现在已经成为 谁的战斗 |
| 135 | controls the Strait of Hormuz. | 控制霍尔木兹海峡. |
| 136 | Iran is very clear that it's them. | 伊朗很清楚是他们 |
| 137 | The US can't allow | 美国不允许 |
| 138 | them to think that or let the rest of the world think that because politically that | 他们认为,或者让世界其他人认为,因为政治上 |
| 139 | would seem to be a very poor outcome from a war which has by the way had political implications | 战争的结果似乎非常糟糕 顺便说一句 这场战争有政治影响 |
| 140 | in the US. | 在美国 |
| 141 | Gasoline went up very significantly to sort of four or five dollars a barrel when | 汽油涨得非常大,每桶四五美元 |
| 142 | it used to be around sort of three and American motorists are super sensitive to gasoline | 以前大概有3个人 美国的摩托车手对汽油很敏感 |
| 143 | prices. | 价格。 |
| 144 | They see it as such a fundamental input and we all know and we've all learned | 他们视之为根本投入 我们都知道,我们都知道 |
| 145 | if we didn't know the pervasive inflationary impact of higher fuel prices because it's | 如果我们不知道高油价对通货膨胀的影响 因为它 |
| 146 | not just you know oil rigs and what have you. | 不只是你知道石油钻机 还有你有什么 |
| 147 | When it goes into sort of trucks and cars | 当它进入某种卡车和汽车 |
| 148 | then every single thing that goes to your local supermarket, your grocery, it goes into | 然后,每一件事情 到你的地方超市,你的杂货, 它去 |
| 149 | fertilizer, oil prices get into just about everything and push prices up. | 肥料,油价 进入了一切 并推高价格。 |
| 150 | When prices | 当价格 |
| 151 | go up, inflation goes up, that means interest rates sometimes have to go up and that has | 通货膨胀上升 意味着利率有时会上升 |
| 152 | the ability or the effect of raising prices, puncturing growth so it's an economic bad | 提高物价的能力或效果 刺激增长 |
| 153 | outcome for everyone. | 给每个人带来结果。 |
| 154 | The midterm elections are in November. | 中期选举于11月举行。 |
| 155 | It's not so far away. | 不远. |
| 156 | Has | 有过 |
| 157 | Donald Trump got time to sort this out and turn the economy around before people go to | 唐纳德·特朗普有时间解决这个问题,在人们去之前扭转经济 |
| 158 | vote? | 投票? |
| 159 | Well what we've seen after the memorandum of understanding is that oil prices snapped | 我们在谅解备忘录之后看到的是油价暴跌 |
| 160 | back pretty quickly. | 回来很快。 |
| 161 | They went from the highs of 120 down to 17 below in pretty short order. | 他们从120高低降到17低 时间很短 |
| 162 | Now there are supply chains and it will take a while for the bulge and the snake of these | 现在有供应链了 暴涨和蛇会花点时间 |
| 163 | higher prices to go right through global supply chains but if they can sort something out | 全球供应链价格的上涨,但如果他们能解决问题 |
| 164 | it is quite possible you get back on the track that I mean if Iran could be accepted back | 你完全有可能回到轨道上 我是说如果伊朗能被接受 |
| 165 | into the international community, free to sell its own oil, you know hostility sees | 进入国际社会,自由出售自己的石油,你知道敌对情绪 |
| 166 | Larry Fink, the boss of Blackrock told me just a couple of months ago, he thinks that | 布莱克洛克的老板拉里·芬克几个月前告诉我 他觉得 |
| 167 | oil could end up at 50, even 40 dollars a barrel so they could snap back but it seems | 石油每桶50美元,甚至40美元,这样它们就能回弹,但似乎 |
| 168 | to be you know the conflict with Iran and the war of words between the leadership in | 你们知道与伊朗的冲突 以及伊朗领导人之间的战争 |
| 169 | the White House and in Iran appears to be pretty intractable at the moment. | 目前,白宫和伊朗似乎相当棘手。 |
| 170 | You know | 你知道吗 |
| 171 | I'm in charge of the straightforward, no I am and it's hard to see a way through that | 我负责的直截了当的,不,我也是 很难看到一个方法通过 |
| 172 | in a way that can be resolved quickly enough before we start homing in on these midterm | 以足够快的方式解决 我们开始进入这些中期 |
| 173 | elections which are actually crucial for Republicans in the US. | 这些选举对美国共和党人至关重要 |
| 174 | So they'll be very mindful and | 所以他们会非常小心 |
| 175 | I think the Iranians will be very mindful that this is coming down the track as a political | 我认为伊朗人会非常清楚, 这会从政治角度进入轨道 |
| 176 | event for the US too. | 对美国来说也是 |
| 177 | The BBC's business editor, Simon Jack. | BBC的商业编辑西蒙·杰克. |
| 178 | Plenty more from the Global News podcast on the link | 更多来自全球新闻播客的链接 |
| 179 | below. | 见下文。 |
| 180 | Thanks for watching. | 谢谢你的观看。 |
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