7-9 普京在乌克兰战争中的下一步会是什么？ | BBC全球
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to the Global News podcast. | 欢迎来到全球新闻播客。 |
| 0:02 | 我是Janette Jaleel 今天我加入我们的外交界 | |
| 0:05 | correspondent, James Landell, who's in Moscow. | 在莫斯科的记者詹姆斯·兰德尔 |
| 0:08 | NATO leaders are meeting in Turkey as Russia | 北约领导人在土耳其作为俄罗斯开会 |
| 0:11 | appears to be struggling in its war against Ukraine, now in its fifth year. | 似乎在对乌克兰的战争中挣扎,现在已是第五个年头。 |
| 0:16 | James, how do | 詹姆斯,你好吗? |
| 0:17 | you assess that the war is going for President Putin? | 你觉得普京总统要打仗吗? |
| 0:20 | Well, it depends whose perspective you look | 那要看你们看谁了 |
| 0:23 | at. | 临Τ |
| 0:24 | From the Russian perspective at the moment, the authorities here insist the war is going all | 从俄罗斯的角度来说,这里的当局 坚持战争正在展开 |
展开字幕全文（156 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to the Global News podcast. | 欢迎来到全球新闻播客。 |
| 2 | 我是Janette Jaleel 今天我加入我们的外交界 | |
| 3 | correspondent, James Landell, who's in Moscow. | 在莫斯科的记者詹姆斯·兰德尔 |
| 4 | NATO leaders are meeting in Turkey as Russia | 北约领导人在土耳其作为俄罗斯开会 |
| 5 | appears to be struggling in its war against Ukraine, now in its fifth year. | 似乎在对乌克兰的战争中挣扎,现在已是第五个年头。 |
| 6 | James, how do | 詹姆斯,你好吗? |
| 7 | you assess that the war is going for President Putin? | 你觉得普京总统要打仗吗? |
| 8 | Well, it depends whose perspective you look | 那要看你们看谁了 |
| 9 | at. | 临Τ |
| 10 | From the Russian perspective at the moment, the authorities here insist the war is going all | 从俄罗斯的角度来说,这里的当局 坚持战争正在展开 |
| 11 | right. | 对 |
| 12 | Vladimir Putin briefed his commanders just a few days ago and both he and they were talking | 弗拉基米尔·普京几天前向他的指挥官作了简报,他和他们都在交谈。 |
| 13 | about the gains that they claimed they were making on the front line. | 关于他们声称在前线取得的收益。 |
| 14 | They claimed that | 他们声称, |
| 15 | Russian forces had taken control of a key city in eastern Ukraine and at the same time the Russian | 俄军控制了乌克兰东部的一座关键城市,同时控制了俄罗斯 |
| 16 | authorities say that they're doing pretty well in the air war as well. | 当局说他们在空战中也表现得很好 |
| 17 | Certainly we know for a fact | 我们当然知道事实 |
| 18 | that over the last week Russia has launched three substantial missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. | 上周,俄罗斯向乌克兰发射了3枚导弹和无人机。 |
| 19 | So from the Russian point of view, in terms of the authorities, they are still insisting that they are | 因此,从俄罗斯的角度来看,就当局而言,他们仍然坚持他们 |
| 20 | ticking over making progress. | 正在等待进展。 |
| 21 | However, that is not the view of Ukraine. | 然而,这不是乌克兰的看法。 |
| 22 | It is not the view of | 这并不是认为 |
| 23 | Ukraine's western allies who believe that Ukraine now has actually finally managed to find a key | 乌克兰的西方盟友认为乌克兰现在终于找到了钥匙 |
| 24 | weakness in the Russian armory, namely its economy. | 俄罗斯军械库的弱点,也就是其经济。 |
| 25 | And so in recent days and weeks, | 所以在最近几天和几周里 |
| 26 | Ukraine has been targeting almost exclusively Russian oil refineries so that at the moment | 乌克兰几乎完全以俄罗斯炼油厂为目标,因此目前 |
| 27 | there is a fuel crisis in Russia and the Ukrainians hope that that will make a difference in the long | 俄罗斯出现燃料危机,乌克兰人希望这将在长期内有所作为。 |
| 28 | run by bringing the war closer to home for ordinary Russians. | 让俄国人更接近家乡 |
| 29 | And that is the big question, isn't it? | 这是大问题,不是吗? |
| 30 | How will President Putin respond to the fact that there are now long queues for fuel, that people | 普京总统将如何应对这样一个事实,即现在有漫长的排队等待燃料, |
| 31 | in Moscow and Saint Petersburg are seeing black smoke on the skyline as these oil refineries are | 莫斯科和圣彼得堡的天际线上有黑烟 因为这些炼油厂 |
| 32 | hit? | 击中? |
| 33 | Will he change course? | 他会改变航向吗? |
| 34 | Well, we certainly know that the Kremlin is aware of this and has felt that | 我们当然知道 克里姆林宫知道这一点 |
| 35 | the situation is serious enough to acknowledge it. | 情况严重到足以承认这一点。 |
| 36 | So Vladimir Putin has summoned in the cameras and | 弗拉基米尔·普京在摄像头里召唤 |
| 37 | given an interview to state television in which he's acknowledged the fact that there is a problem | 在州电视台接受采访时 他承认有问题 |
| 38 | with the shortages. | 与短缺。 |
| 39 | But he says that it's not critical. | 但他说这不重要 |
| 40 | However, certainly the government is | 然而,政府当然是 |
| 41 | making efforts to try and counter that. | 努力去对抗 |
| 42 | They're trying to increase imports of refined fuel. | 他们试图增加精炼燃料的进口. |
| 43 | They are subsidising prices. | 它们正在补贴价格。 |
| 44 | They are allowing lower grade fuel to be distributed. | 它们允许分配较低等级的燃料。 |
| 45 | But I think | 但我觉得 |
| 46 | acknowledging that there is a problem is not the same as acknowledging that they are in any way | 承认存在问题并不等于承认它们以任何方式 |
| 47 | war aims. | 战争的目的。 |
| 48 | The Russians have made it very clear, the government here, that at the moment they see | 俄国人已经非常清楚,政府在这里, 他们现在看到 |
| 49 | no reason to change their war aims, which are still pretty maximalist. | 没有任何理由改变他们的战争目标, 这些目标仍然是最伟大的。 |
| 50 | And Vladimir Putin, | 弗拉基米尔·普京 |
| 51 | whenever he's asked about it or is saying anything in public about it, talks about | 每当他问起这件事 或者当众谈论这件事 |
| 52 | claiming more territory in eastern Ukraine, which he insists is already Russian territory, | 他声称乌克兰东部拥有更多的领土,他坚持认为,这已经是俄罗斯的领土, |
| 53 | and keeping going on that front. | 继续走在前面。 |
| 54 | So at the moment, there's no sign that the Russian side | 所以现在没有俄国方面 |
| 55 | is going to shift on this. | 将转向这一点。 |
| 56 | One big concern for NATO leaders at this summit is the warning that | 北约领导人在这次首脑会议上的一个主要关切是警告: |
| 57 | President Putin might be looking at opening up another front in Europe, possibly launching | 普京总统可能考虑在欧洲开辟另一条战线, |
| 58 | some kind of attack against a NATO ally. | 攻击北约盟友 |
| 59 | Yeah, look, that is the big question that Western analysts | 是啊,你看,这是一个大问题 西方分析家 |
| 60 | and ministers and diplomats are struggling with at the moment. | 部长和外交官目前正在挣扎。 |
| 61 | Because if you accept that the | 因为如果你接受 |
| 62 | Ukrainian actions now is putting economic pressure on the Kremlin, that potentially could | 乌克兰现在的行动正在对克里姆林宫施加经济压力,这有可能 |
| 63 | become political pressure. | 成为政治压力。 |
| 64 | The Ukrainians are hoping that that persuades Vladimir Putin to | 乌克兰人希望这能说服普京 |
| 65 | come to the table, to agree, let's talk, let's have some kind of discussion about a potential | 来讨论,同意,我们谈谈,我们讨论一下潜力 |
| 66 | political settlement to this conflict. | 政治解决这场冲突。 |
| 67 | However, there is another bunch of analysts who will tell | 但是,还有一群分析家会告诉 |
| 68 | you that actually in that circumstance, Mr Putin will not move to talks, but instead he will think | 普京先生不会去谈,而是会想 |
| 69 | of pushing back in some ways. | 以某种方式推进。 |
| 70 | And the question therefore is, if Mr Putin were to escalate, | 因此,问题是,如果普京先生升级, |
| 71 | how would he do that? | 他会怎么做? |
| 72 | And at the moment, Western analysts are going through the full gamut of | 目前,西方分析家们正在经历 |
| 73 | potential possibilities from stepping up actions on the front line in eastern Ukraine through to | 从加强乌克兰东部前线行动到 |
| 74 | some kind of increased gray war attack on the West, or even some kind of action that actually | 某种灰色战争对西方的进攻 甚至某种实际的行动 |
| 75 | prods NATO itself, potentially against Poland or Baltic. | 可能反对波兰或波罗的海。 |
| 76 | All of these things have been speculated | 所有这些事情都是推测出来的 |
| 77 | about by the newspapers and analysts. | 关于报纸和分析家。 |
| 78 | And the question, though, is whenever you talk to those | 但问题是,每当你和那些... |
| 79 | analysts, very few of them actually agree where they think the Russian leader may or may not move. | 分析家们,几乎没有人真正同意他们认为俄罗斯领导人可能或不可能移动的地方. |
| 80 | Others say this, they say actually Mr Putin is actually quite cautious at times, and so it might | 其他人说,他们说实际上普京先生 其实相当谨慎 有时,所以它可能 |
| 81 | be some time before we actually learn what the next move he's going to make is. | 在我们真正学会他下一步要做什么之前 一定有时间 |
| 82 | And he'll have | 他会有 |
| 83 | been encouraged by President Trump's repeated criticism of NATO allies at the summit. | 对川普总统在峰会上一再批评北约盟国感到鼓舞. |
| 84 | President | 庭长 |
| 85 | Trump has also been keeping in touch with President Putin, speaking to him before going to Ankara, | 特朗普也一直与普京总统保持联系,在前往安卡拉前与他交谈, |
| 86 | and apparently he'll be speaking to him after he meets Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. | 显然他见到乌克兰总统 弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基后 会跟他说话 |
| 87 | So this is something that perhaps the Russian leader is hoping he can capitalize on. | 也许俄罗斯领导人希望他能利用这一点。 |
| 88 | Well, look, both President Zelensky and President Putin have been in a sort of | 听着 泽连斯基总统和普京总统 都处于某种状态 |
| 89 | game of who can sweet talk Donald Trump the best ahead of the NATO summit, both of them having | 在北约峰会前,谁能甜言蜜语的唐纳德·特朗普 |
| 90 | conversations with him, both of them trying to get their narrative across. | 和他交谈,他们都试图 让他们的叙述。 |
| 91 | At the moment, | 现在 |
| 92 | the Americans seem to accept the Ukrainian narrative that actually, for the first time | 美国人似乎接受了乌克兰的叙事 事实上,这是第一次 |
| 93 | in a while, Ukraine is more on the front foot in this war than it has been. | 不久之后,乌克兰在这场战争中比以往更加站在前列。 |
| 94 | But at the same time, | 但与此同时, |
| 95 | Donald Trump received messages from Vladimir Putin congratulating him on the 250th Independence Day | 唐纳德·特朗普收到弗拉基米尔·普京的消息,祝贺他参加第250独立日活动. |
| 96 | anniversary celebrations over the weekend. | 周末庆祝周年 |
| 97 | They had a telephone call in which President Putin | 他们有一个电话 普京总统 |
| 98 | again invited Donald Trump to come to Russia for a visit, and essentially reinforcing the argument | 再一次邀请唐纳德·特朗普来俄罗斯访问, |
| 99 | that, yes, Russia is in principle ready to accept some kind of political settlement to this war, | 是的,俄罗斯原则上 愿意接受某种 政治解决这场战争, |
| 100 | as long as it is clearly on Russia's terms. | 只要这符合俄国的条件 |
| 101 | But until that time happens, | 但在那个时候之前 |
| 102 | it is going to continue prosecuting this war on Ukraine. | 它将继续起诉这场对乌克兰的战争。 |
| 103 | Recent polls in Russia have indicated that President Putin's approval ratings are dipping, | 最近俄罗斯的民调显示,普京总统的批准率正在下降, |
| 104 | that people are very pessimistic about the economy, more pessimistic than they've been | 人们对经济非常悲观 比以前更悲观 |
| 105 | for decades. | 数十年。 |
| 106 | How secure is President Putin's position? | 普京总统的立场有多安全? |
| 107 | Is there any internal threat against him? | 他有没有受到任何内部威胁? |
| 108 | It is true that his ratings have dipped a bit in the opinion polls. | 确实,他的收视率在民意测验中略有下降。 |
| 109 | I mean, they're still pretty | 我的意思是,他们仍然漂亮 |
| 110 | high compared to normal leaders in opinion polls. | 与民意测验中的正常领导人相比, |
| 111 | But for a Russian leader, they have dipped a bit | 但对于一个俄国领导人来说,他们已经 滴了一点 |
| 112 | as a result of some people's concerns about the state of the economy and the state of the war. | 由于一些人担心经济状况和战争状态. |
| 113 | But the question is, does that translate into real political pressure on the Kremlin? | 但问题是,这是否转化为对克里姆林宫的真正政治压力? |
| 114 | This is not a | 这不是一个 |
| 115 | country where there are many vehicles for that pressure to be voiced. | 这些国家有许多手段可以表达这种压力。 |
| 116 | There are elections for | 有选举 |
| 117 | Duma later this year, so that gives at least some capability for voters to express some opinions. | 杜马今年晚些时候,这至少使选民能够表达某些意见。 |
| 118 | But at the moment, there's very little evidence of any kind of substantial political opposition | 但目前几乎没有任何实质性政治反对派的证据 |
| 119 | driving the Kremlin into a different position on this, simply on the basis of the economic | 迫使克里姆林宫对此采取不同的立场,仅仅基于经济、社会、经济、社会和文化因素。 |
| 120 | fuel shortage that they're going through at the moment. | 他们目前所经历的燃料短缺。 |
| 121 | And James, it does seem incredible how there has been this big turnaround in the past few months. | 詹姆斯,这确实令人难以置信 在过去几个月里发生了如此大的转变。 |
| 122 | We were talking just a few months ago about Ukraine being on the ropes, but now it seems | 几个月前我们刚讨论过 乌克兰在绳子上,但现在看来 |
| 123 | that Ukraine has a newfound confidence, which seems to be largely down to its advanced drone technology. | 乌克兰有了新的信心,这似乎在很大程度上已经到了其先进的无人机技术。 |
| 124 | Well, I think one thing we've seen during this war is quite a regular pattern of both sides' | 我认为战争中我们看到的一件事 是双方的规律 |
| 125 | fortunes rising and falling at various stages. | 财富在不同阶段的升降。 |
| 126 | And sometimes that has been as a result of | 有时候是因为... |
| 127 | the outcome of military action on the battlefield. | 战场上军事行动的结果。 |
| 128 | Sometimes it has been a result of | 有时候,这是因为 |
| 129 | economic rise and fall. | 经济兴衰. |
| 130 | Sometimes it has been because of changes in support from | 有时是因为来自 |
| 131 | Western allies giving more or less support to Ukraine. | 西方盟国给予乌克兰多少支持. |
| 132 | Sometimes, as you say, it's been a | 有时候,就像你说的,这是个 |
| 133 | technological advance. | 技术进步。 |
| 134 | But yes, at the moment, Ukraine believes it has the wind in its sails | 但是,是的,现在,乌克兰 相信它的风在它的帆上 |
| 135 | in a way that it hasn't for some time, and it hopes to use this moment to put more pressure | 它希望利用这一时刻 施加更多的压力 |
| 136 | on the Russian leadership to change its position. | 要求俄罗斯领导人改变立场。 |
| 137 | But at the same time, it's entirely possible that | 但与此同时,完全有可能 |
| 138 | the situation remains pretty stable over the rest of the summer. | 整个夏天的情况都相当稳定 |
| 139 | And then come next winter, | 然后明年冬天来 |
| 140 | Ukrainian authorities are really worried about the state of their energy capacity | 乌克兰当局非常担心其能源能力状况 |
| 141 | during the next winter because so much of it was destroyed by Russia during the last winter, | 接下来的冬天 因为去年冬天被俄国摧毁了 |
| 142 | and none of this can be repaired in short order in time for next winter. | 并且这些都无法在明年冬天的短时间内修复。 |
| 143 | So the Ukrainian authorities | 所以乌克兰当局 |
| 144 | are doing their best to go around the world finding as many portable generators as they can | 寻找尽可能多的便携式发电机 |
| 145 | bring them into Ukraine. | 把他们带到乌克兰 |
| 146 | So they've got extra charging capability to try and tide them through | 因此,他们有额外的充电能力 尝试通过 |
| 147 | next winter. | 下个冬天 |
| 148 | So it's entirely possible that the tide of this war flows in a different direction | 所以这场战争的潮流 完全有可能朝不同的方向发展 |
| 149 | in the future. | 未来 |
| 150 | But you're right to say at the moment Ukraine believes it's got an edge simply | 但是,你说得对,在乌克兰认为 它有一个边缘 |
| 151 | because it has managed to find what it believes is an economic vulnerability in the Russian flank, | 因为它找到了俄国侧翼的经济弱点 |
| 152 | and it's punching that that bruise relentlessly at the moment. | 它正在猛击 瘀伤在目前无情。 |
| 153 | James, thank you. | 詹姆斯,谢谢你。 |
| 154 | That was James Landell, our diplomatic correspondent in Moscow. | 那是詹姆斯·兰德尔 我们在莫斯科的外交记者 |
| 155 | And if you'd | 如果你愿意的话 |
| 156 | like to hear more of the Global News podcast, please click on the link below. | 请点击以下链接。 |
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