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【牛津辩论】以色列比伊朗对地区稳定构成更大的威胁?

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时间英文中文
0:04Thank you.谢谢
0:08A friend of mine recently told me to avoid making my first paper speech on我的一个朋友最近告诉我 避免发表我的第一个论文 关于
0:12a controversial motion, so it is a relief to start with something as uncontroversial一个有争议的动议,所以它是一个解脱 从一些没有争议的东西开始
0:17as this.像这样
0:19I was also warned my employment options might be limited if I went too hard on Israel,我还被警告说,如果我对以色列太苛刻的话,我的就业选择可能有限,
0:25so I am very sad to say that Netanyahu's press office will sadly be denying my application.所以我非常难过地说,内塔尼亚胡的新闻办公室 将可悲地拒绝我的申请。
0:31I would like to begin by thanking the President once more for giving me the opportunity to make首先,我谨再次感谢主席给我机会,使我能够
0:36my first paper speech.我的第一个论文。
0:37And what a motion to begin with.开始算什么运动
0:40Few propositions could be quite没有什么建议可以相当
展开字幕全文(1325 条)
序号英文中文
1Thank you.谢谢
2A friend of mine recently told me to avoid making my first paper speech on我的一个朋友最近告诉我 避免发表我的第一个论文 关于
3a controversial motion, so it is a relief to start with something as uncontroversial一个有争议的动议,所以它是一个解脱 从一些没有争议的东西开始
4as this.像这样
5I was also warned my employment options might be limited if I went too hard on Israel,我还被警告说,如果我对以色列太苛刻的话,我的就业选择可能有限,
6so I am very sad to say that Netanyahu's press office will sadly be denying my application.所以我非常难过地说,内塔尼亚胡的新闻办公室 将可悲地拒绝我的申请。
7I would like to begin by thanking the President once more for giving me the opportunity to make首先,我谨再次感谢主席给我机会,使我能够
8my first paper speech.我的第一个论文。
9And what a motion to begin with.开始算什么运动
10Few propositions could be quite没有什么建议可以相当
11so straightforward.这么直截了当。
12This House believes that Israel is a greater threat to regional stability本院认为,以色列是对区域稳定的更大威胁。
13than Iran.比伊朗强。
14And really, what a gift of a motion that is.痷 痷琌笆搂
15Israel makes the case for us quite以色列为我们辩护
16effortlessly.不费吹灰之力
17Violation after violation of ceasefires, repeated invasions and occupations,违反停火、一再入侵和占领后违反停火,
18broken promises and acts of aggression dressed up as defence.违背诺言和侵略行为伪装成防卫行动。
19There has rarely been an easier没有什么比这更容易的
20case to argue in this Chamber.本庭辩论的案件。
21The dominant argument in international relations discourse,国际关系中的主要论点,
22peddled for the last couple of decades in the United States and the Western world, is过去几十年在美国和西方世界,
23that Iran is the principal threat and source of instability in the Middle East.伊朗是中东不稳定的主要威胁和根源。
24But it不过
25is essential to look deeper and ask which state has launched more destructive wars,必须更深入地审视,并询问哪个国家发动了更具破坏性的战争,
26attacked more of its neighbours and killed more civilians.袭击更多的邻国,杀害更多的平民。
27The uncomfortable answer is,难受的答案是,
28of course, Israel.当然,以色列。
29Never again will I be presented the chance to argue for or against a nation that我再也不会有机会为这个国家辩护或反对它
30proves my point for me, offering a wealth of historical and recent examples.证明了我的观点,提供了丰富的历史和最近的例子。
31Imagine this,想想这个
32as Israel did two months ago, striking Hamas peace negotiations in an US allied state while正如以色列两个月前所做的那样,在盟军国家打击哈马斯的和平谈判。
33hosting ceasefire talks to end your own war.主持停火谈判结束你自己的战争
34It sounds surreal, but that is the nature of Israel.这听起来超现实的,但这就是以色列的性质。
35And looking to the past does not paint a much rosier picture.向往往往事 并没有描绘出更华丽的画面
36From killing British diplomats从杀死英国外交官
37in the bombing of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem to providing military aid to anti-Assad rebels as在轰炸耶路撒冷大卫王饭店,向反阿萨德的叛军提供军事援助方面,
38recently as 2018, Israel has consistently posed an existential threat to stability in the Middle最近到2018年,以色列一直对中东的稳定构成生存威胁。
39East.东方.
40Even those countries with leaders with what President Trump gently refers to as rough即使那些有领导人的国家 特朗普总统轻而易举地称之为粗糙
41pass, for instance South Africa and Syria, have seen their figures moderate once in power.例如,南非和叙利亚在掌权后,其人物表现温和。
42Trump特朗普
43recently joked about Ahmed al-Sharah, Syria's current interim president, who once had a $10最近开玩笑说,叙利亚现任临时总统艾哈迈德·沙拉赫曾经有过10美元。
44million US bounty on his head for being a terrorist.百万美国赏金在他的头上 一个恐怖分子。
45But Israel's own leaders, whose early years were但以色列自己的领导人,他们的早年是
46defined by terrorism against colonial powers, sabotage and espionage, never left those tendencies恐怖主义对殖民国家、破坏和间谍活动所下的定义从未离开过这些倾向
47behind.后面 后面那个
48The terror tactics of their pre-power years continued, and in some cases even intensified其事前数年的恐怖策略仍在继续,有时甚至加剧
49during their time in office.在任期间。
50Look to the Sabra and Shatila massacre enabled by Israeli forces,看着以色列军队促成的萨布拉和沙蒂拉大屠杀,
51if you want proof of what those so-called rough pass produce in power.如果你想证明这些所谓的粗糙的通行证 会产生什么权力。
52Now the opposition will现在反对派会
53insist that Iran's nuclear program is the great destabilizing force in the Middle East, as Katie坚持伊朗的核计划是中东破坏稳定的强大力量 凯蒂
54has already enlightened us, but they will fail to tell you how Israel got its own nuclear weapons.但他们不会告诉你以色列是如何获得自己的核武器的。
55Israel obtained them entirely without international approval, and at least initially against the以色列完全未经国际批准而获得这些情报,至少最初反对以色列。
56wishes of its own sponsor, the United States.提案国美国的愿望。
57France helped build the Demona reactor under法国帮助建造了Demona反应堆
58the convenient label of a textile factory.一个纺织厂的方便标签。
59American-sourced materials featured in long长篇美国资料
60allegations, and the Numaka Fair left open suspicions about diverted US uranium.努马卡博览会也公开怀疑美国铀被转用。
61All of this was done这一切都做了
62under a shroud of deep secrecy, with Israel partnering with South Africa.与以色列合作 与南非。
63With its own alleged与自己的指称
64apartheid policies that treat Arab citizens as second rate, it is no wonder that the two found种族隔离政策把阿拉伯公民视为第二率,难怪他们发现
65so much in common.这么多的共同点。
66After Kennedy, who had the audacity to push for inspections of Demona, was肯尼迪有胆量 推动检查Demona之后
67assassinated, US policy shifted, and later presidents quietly acquiesced.被暗杀,美国政策转变,后来的总统悄悄默许.
68The result?结果?
69Israel's以色列
70undeclared nuclear arsenal tied America to endless entanglements, reinforced Arab affairs of a nuclear使美国与无休止的纠缠,强化了阿拉伯的核事务
71armed outlier, and helped drive other states, including Iran, to seek their own deterrent.并促使包括伊朗在内的其他国家寻求自己的威慑。
72At almost no point in its history has Israel acted in very good faith when it comes to peace,在和平问题上,以色列在其历史上几乎从未本着诚意行事,
73consider the Lebanon example.考虑黎巴嫩的例子。
74In the 2006 war, Israel dropped up to 4 million cluster在2006年战争中,以色列减少了多达400万组
75subunits in the final 72 hours alone, and that was 90% of its total use.单是最后72小时的子单位,就占其总使用量的90%。
76This was after the UN这是在联合国之后
77resolution had already passed.决议已经通过。
78Or take Gaza, even after the ceasefire was agreed, the IDF,或占领加沙,即使在停火协议达成之后,以色列国防军,
79apparently curious how it stopped piles of bran, dropped a few delayed gifts before the truce显然好奇的是,它是如何停止堆积的布伦, 在休战前放下了一些延迟的礼物
80took hold.稳住
81You might like to think that these are unfortunate one-offs.你可能会认为这些是不幸的一次性的。
82They are not.他们不是。
83Israel has a以色列有一个
84habit of killing ceasefires almost the moment they are thought up.杀害停火的习惯 几乎是一想到他们就会想到的
85In the month or so since the latest上个月左右
86ceasefire, Israeli attacks have killed at least 242 Palestinians and injured more than 600.以色列的攻击至少造成242名巴勒斯坦人死亡,600多人受伤。
87And还有
88the pattern is brutally predictable.模式是残酷可预测的。
89On the 19th of October 2025, Israel shattered the US-brokered2025年10月19日,以色列粉碎了美国经纪人
90Gaza truce with a wave of strikes that killed 26 civilians across camps and homes, including加沙停战,一波袭击,造成26名平民在营地和家园死亡,其中包括:
91children.孩子们
92Two days later, the vice president of the United States, JD Vance, jetted in for a两天后,美国副总统万斯(JD Vance) 乘飞机赶到
93friendly visit, while Washington pressed ahead with over $10 billion in arms notifications this华盛顿以超过100亿美元的武器通知
94year alone.只有一年时间
95During the fragile 2025 January ceasefire, Israel committed over a thousand在脆弱的2025年1月停火期间,以色列承诺执行1 000多项停火。
96breaches, including airstrikes on civilian areas, grounded incursions along the Yellow Line,包括空袭平民地区、在黄线沿线进行强行入侵,
97and a total aid blockade that choked off food, fuel, and medicine.和完全的援助封锁 扼杀食物、燃料和药品。
98It then refused phase two,它拒绝第二阶段,
99kept the blockade, and killed hundreds of Palestinians, including 270 women and children.并杀害了数百名巴勒斯坦人,包括270名妇女和儿童。
100And what followed?接下来呢?
101A $4 billion emergency aid package which included expedited US deliveries,40亿美元的紧急援助计划,包括加速美国交付,
102faster weapons shipments, and Iron Dome upgrades, as Washington vetoed not one, not two, but three更快的武器运输, 铁穹升级, 因为华盛顿否决 不是一,不是二,而是三
103UN resolutions calling for restraint amid the chaos.在混乱中呼吁克制的联合国决议。
104Israel is uniquely susceptible to breaking以色列极易被破坏
105ceasefires because conflict keeps the weapons flowing.停火,因为冲突使武器流通。
106It ensures the money, the visibility,它能确保钱和能见度
107and the illusion of existential siege that underwrites its foreign policy.以及支持其外交政策的存在包围的幻想。
108Without conflict,没有冲突,
109Israel has no leverage over its allies.以色列对其盟友没有任何影响力。
110Stability, to put it simply, threatens Israel's简言之,稳定威胁着以色列
111ambitions.雄心壮志
112And what of Israel's relationships?以色列的关系呢?
113Israel is a bad friend.以色列是一个坏朋友。
114Its stress tests its它的压力测试它
115alliances to breaking point, brushing off US cautions and humiliating its partners in public.并公开羞辱其伙伴。
116Iran, for all of its flaws, at least maintains a few enduring friendships.伊朗尽管存在种种缺陷,但至少保持了几段持久的友谊。
117Israel is a broken以色列是一个破碎的
118player whose only party trick is bombing its neighbors and betraying its allies.玩家唯一的花招就是轰炸邻居 背叛盟友
119For years几年来
120under the ironically named Operation Good Neighbor, Israel funneled aid, cash, and weapons to anti-Assad以色列将援助、现金和武器输给反阿萨德,
121rebels, including groups affiliated with the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's Syrian branch.叛军,包括隶属于努斯拉阵线的团体,基地组织的叙利亚分支.
122Wounded受伤
123fighters were treated in Israeli hospitals, and logistical support kept rebel units fighting.战斗人员在以色列医院接受治疗,后勤支助使反叛部队继续战斗。
124In other words, Israel was adding fuel to the fire of instability by backing groups that the US换句话说,以色列支持美国支持的团体,为不稳定的火力增添了燃料。
125and others designate as terrorists.以及其他人被指为恐怖分子。
126Despite Iran's authoritarianism and nuclear ambitions,尽管伊朗的专制和核野心,
127it has simply failed to compete with the destabilizer in chief of the Near East.它根本未能与破坏稳定者争夺近东地区。
128Israel以色列
129is constantly ahead of the curve with innovative new ways to ensure peace never takes root.以新的创新方式确保和平永不生根。
130The fact of the matter is that Israel's policies do not invite peace.事实是,以色列的政策没有带来和平。
131It receives less aid when它得到的援助较少,如果
132tensions de-escalate, and Israel's foreign policy depends on conflict, militarily, politically,以色列的外交政策取决于冲突、军事、政治、政治、政治冲突。
133and economically.和经济上。
134It has to rely on illusion, or perhaps the genuine fear that every other state它必须依赖幻觉 或也许真正的恐惧
135in the region is out to get it.在地区是得到它。
136As offensive realism would predict, Israel pursues maximal power正如进攻现实主义所预言的,以色列追求最大的权力
137and regional hegemony under acute insecurity.和严重不安全下的区域霸权。
138Because of its constant siege mentality,由于其不断的围困心态,
139Israel must project power simply to exist, so domination becomes the norm.以色列必须把权力投射出来,这样,统治就成为规范。
140It takes the power-seeking playbook to an extreme, burning through regional alliances它需要寻求权力的游戏本到极端,通过区域联盟燃烧
141whenever they're getting in the way, and failing to maintain any durable relationships in the每当他们阻碍, 和未能保持任何持久的关系 在其中
142neighborhood.邻里
143There was a time when the US and the world viewed Iran as the regional problem,曾一度美国和世界视伊朗为地区问题,
144but that has largely shifted since 1979, because what has superseded the dangerous US-backed但自1979年以来,情况大为改观,因为已经取代了美国支持的危险因素。
145Israel was the US-backed Israel, which has had much more power to produce instability in the以色列是美国支持的以色列,它拥有更大的权力来制造不稳定。
146region.区域。
147No state propped up by a superpower, whether American or Soviet or anything else,没有哪个国家被超级大国,无论是美国还是苏维埃,还是别的什么
148has had the ability to bring lasting stability to the Middle East, and despite its Islamic有能力给中东带来持久稳定,尽管其伊斯兰
149revolution, Iran has failed to become the principal source of destabilization.伊朗没有成为破坏稳定的主要来源。
150It comes close in 2025, but this is only after decades of Israeli and American behavior made it在2025年关闭,但这 仅仅经过几十年的以色列和美国行为
151almost impossible not to react.几乎不可能不作出反应。
152From its very inception, the state of Israel has not brought以色列国从一开始就没有带来
153stability.稳定。
154It serves a narrow set of interests.它符合狭隘的利益。
155Perhaps Herzl could only imagine a homeland,也许赫兹尔只能想象一个家园
156but what has sadly emerged is a garrison state.但可悲的是出现了一个守军国家
157Israel's relations with its neighbors are only以色列与其邻国的关系
158episodically calm, rarely peaceable and never sustained.令人惊叹的平静,很少和平,也从未持续。
159Before its creation, there was at在创建前,它曾经是
160least some possibility of peaceful interfaith life across the Levant, and afterwards we have至少在黎凡特和平的信仰间生活 之后
161seen only wars and occupation.只有战争和占领。
162Iran, despite its proxy networks and nuclear ambitions, only requires伊朗尽管拥有代理网络和核野心,但仅要求
163at most regime change, and perhaps not even that for stable relations with the rest of the Middle多数政权更迭,甚至与中国内地的稳定关系
164East.东方.
165Israel on the other hand shares terrible relations with the majority of its neighbors.另一方面,以色列与其大多数邻国有着可怕的关系。
166The Sunni Shia issue pales in comparison to the issues that Israel has created逊尼派什叶派问题比以色列制造的问题苍白
167for itself.为了自己
168To reiterate my central argument, Israel's policies feed on instability.为了重申我的核心论点,以色列的政策是不稳定的。
169Israel以色列
170acts against ceasefires, undermines peace initiatives, and manipulates its allies while破坏和平倡议,操纵盟国,同时
171arming its enemies and sustaining a permanent war economy that thrives on chaos.武装其敌人,维持以混乱为生的永久战争经济。
172Where Iran在伊朗境内
173antagonizes, Israel annihilates.对抗,以色列毁灭。
174And where Iran postures, Israel bombs.而伊朗的姿态,以色列炸弹。
175And where stability在稳定的地方
176threatens to break through, Israel ensures it dies first.以色列威胁要突破,确保它先死。
177Mr. President, honorable members of总统先生,尊敬的成员
178this House, the truth is undeniable.这宫殿,真理是不可否认的。
179Behind its endless talk of security and survival, Israel has以色列无休止地谈论安全和生存,在其背后
180abandoned any real pursuit of peace.放弃了任何真正的和平追求
181It stands today as the region's chief destabilizer, and that它今天是该地区的主要破坏稳定者。
182is why this House must see that it is Israel, not Iran, that poses the greatest threat to Middle正因为如此,本大会堂必须看到,对中东构成最大威胁的是以色列,而不是伊朗。
183Eastern stability.东方稳定.
184Thank you very much.谢谢
185Thank you.谢谢
186I now look to William Rome to continue the case我现在希望罗马继续办这个案子
187for side opposition.对方反对。
188Good evening and thank you very much.晚上好,非常感谢。
189Now, when the President asked me this现在,当总统问我
190morning to speak on this motion, my first thought, I have to tell you all, what have I done wrong?早上要就这个动议发言, 我的第一个想法, 我必须告诉大家, 我做了什么错事?
191You see, I'm on the most cancelable side of the most cancelable debate at one of the most你看,我是最可以取消的一方 最可以取消的辩论之一
192cancelable institutions in the world.世界上可取消的机构。
193Dear, oh dear.亲爱的,哦,亲爱的。
194It's a pretty daunting prospect for any这对任何一个
195speaker.扬声器。
196Well, maybe my last performance.好吧,也许我的最后一次表演。
197But joking aside, thank you very much for the opportunity开个玩笑,谢谢你给我这个机会
198and congratulations on your turn.并祝贺你轮到你。
199It is a great and much deserved success.这是一次巨大和非常值得的成功。
200Down to business.下至诸业.
201Let's start with a very big disclaimer.我们从一个非常大的免责声明开始
202Israel's conduct in Gaza以色列在加沙地带的行为
203is reprehensible.应该受到谴责。
204No other words about it.无别说法.
205Although the argument about whether they've虽然关于他们是否
206reached the statutory definition of genocide is debatable, it's in a sense not the point.达到种族灭绝的法定定义是值得争论的, 从某种意义上讲,这不是重点。
207There is clear evidence of war crimes and Netanyahu's conduct is utterly unbecoming有明显证据表明内塔尼亚胡犯下了战争罪行 其行为完全不妥
208of any government leader, let alone one who affects to lead a civilized society.更别提影响领导文明社会的人
209Salvation of civilians is never justified.拯救平民是毫无道理的。
210And the comments of Ben-Gavir, Smotrich and Ko,而本-加维尔,斯莫特里希和科的评论,
211they're a disgrace.他们是耻辱。
212This is not a qualified remark.这不是一个有保留的评论。
213There is no but.没有,但。
214Positioned against this is the Islamic Republic of Iran.伊朗伊斯兰共和国反对这样做。
215Its treatment of women and the LGBT它对妇女和LGBT的待遇
216community is equally reprehensible.社区同样应受谴责。
217Its approach to religious minorities makes Israel's look以色列对待宗教少数的态度使以色列看起来
218frankly positively benign.坦白地说,是善意的。
219And whereas there is vocal and active opposition in Israel,虽然在以色列有激烈和积极的反对,
220Palestinians, but there is from the Arab-Israeli minority, Iran has systematically repressed巴勒斯坦人,但有来自阿拉伯-以色列少数民族,伊朗有系统地镇压
221all opposition.所有反对者
222I'm afraid, sir, you are here as evidence of that.恐怕您是作为证据来的
223Its government is a disgraceful, frankly, blot on the history of one of the great civilizations坦率地说,它的政府是伟大文明之一的历史的污点。
224of humanity, of history, the Persians.人类 历史 波斯人
225But this debate is not about moral righteousness of either但这场辩论 与道德正义无关
226of these countries.这些国家。
227I happen to think that Israel is a country that should and can be a positive我碰巧认为以色列是一个应该而且能够成为一个积极的国家。
228force in the world, but is deeply troubled in how it's approaching fundamental decisions.但对于它是如何接近基本决定 却深感不安
229Iran, meanwhile, is, for me, beyond redemption.与此同时,对于我来说,伊朗已经超出了救赎的范围。
230Under its current political settlement, that is.根据其目前的政治解决办法,这就是说。
231The historical nation of Persia is among humanity's most accomplished and exceptional.历史上的波斯国家是人类最成就和最杰出的国家之一.
232And I look to figures like Sharon Abadi, Nargis Mohammadi, who offer a far brighter future for我期待着像莎伦·阿巴迪,纳吉斯·穆罕默德这样的人物,他们为
233the Iranian people and one that recognizes and treasures that history and that culture承认并珍视历史和文化的人
234and is a force for good in the region and the world.并且是本地区和世界的善战力量。
235We don't see that now.我们现在看不出来。
236The question we're debating here is their impact on the wider region.我们在这里辩论的问题是它们对于更广大地区的影响.
237And this is where I will argue that Iran offers a far greater active threat to regional stability我在此认为,伊朗对区域稳定的威胁要大得多。
238than does Israel.比以色列还好
239I point to four key issues.我指出四个关键问题。
240Firstly, its ideological approach.第一,它的意识形态方法。
241Secondly,第二,我们...
242its actions and use of proxies in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.在也门、叙利亚、黎巴嫩和加沙的行动和使用代理人。
243Its approach to freedom of它对自由自由的态度
244and the law of the seas.与诸海法.
245And finally, its engagement with the wider region and with最后,它与更广大的区域和
246the little bit of geographic indulgence.一点点的地理宽容。
247I'm going to include Ukraine here.我要把乌克兰也包括在内
248Let me start with ideology, as it explains everything that follows.让我从意识形态开始,因为它解释了随后的一切。
249I want to raise the interplay between theology and ideology in each country and how this我想提高各国神学和意识形态的相互作用 以及这个
250impacts its foreign policy.影响其外交政策。
251For the Israelis, this means Zionism.对以色列人来说,这意味着犹太复国主义。
252And as I say this, I'm如我所说,我
253anticipating a sharp intake of breath in the room.预想着房间里的呼吸会很紧张
254Oh, God, where's he going with this?哦,上帝,他要用这个干什么?
255No.没有
256Like Islam, Judaism is a fundamentally peaceful religion, and I personally support和伊斯兰教一样,犹太教是一个基本和平的宗教,我个人支持
257Zionism in my interpretation of it.锡安主义在我的解释中。
258In my interpretation of it, that the Jewish people在我的解释中,犹太人民
259have the right to a homeland in their ancestral home of Israel.拥有在他们祖先的以色列家园建立家园的权利。
260The Jewish Center for Justice犹太正义中心
261agrees with my definition.同意我的定义。
262This is grounded in the visceral reaction I personally felt这基于我个人感受到的内脏反应
263when I visited Auschwitz.当我访问奥斯维辛时
264But it does not mean that the Palestinians don't also deserve a但是,这并不意味着巴勒斯坦人也不应该获得
265homeland.祖国
266They absolutely do in their ancestral homelands.他们绝对是在他们祖先的故乡。
267And I would argue that Zionism has而我认为锡安主义
268been exploited beyond its original purpose.被超越了最初的目的
269Now, let's consider what I would argue to be现在,让我们考虑一下,我会说什么
270the closest Iranian equivalent for influencing foreign policy as an ideology.作为意识形态影响外交政策的最接近的伊朗人。
271Translated as guardianship of the jurists, I apologize if I butchered the pronunciation.译为"法学家的监护",我道歉 如果我砍掉读音。
272This justifies the authority of the supreme leader in his supposed position as the font of这证明最高领导人在假定他担任的 " 字体:
273knowledge and moral virtue.知识与道德德行.
274Crucially, though, it has an explicit expansionist element to it.但重要的是,它有一个明显的扩张主义因素。
275And this justifies a lot of what Iran is doing.这为伊朗的所作所为提供了理由。
276As Ayatollah Khamenei said in a speech on Radio正如阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊在电台的演讲中所说
277Tehran in 1980, and I quote directly, we should try hard to export our revolution to the world1980年德黑兰,我直接引用,我们应该努力向世界输出我们的革命
278because Islam does not regard various Islamic countries differently and is the supporter of因为伊斯兰教对不同的伊斯兰国家没有不同的看待,并且支持
279all the oppressed people of the world.全世界所有被压迫的人民
280He adds, this possibly gives an indication of the more他补充说,这可能说明,
281concerning aspect of this ideology.有关这种意识形态的方面。
282We are fighting against international communism我们反对国际共产主义
283to the same degree that we are fighting against the Western world.与我们对抗西方世界的程度相同。
284And again, I quote,我再说一遍,
285devourers led by America, Israel and Zionism.美国、以色列和犹太复国主义领导的吞噬者。
286锡安主义和Wilayat al-Fakir是根本
287to the foreign policy of Israel and Iran respectively.以色列和伊朗的外交政策。
288There's a difference.有分别.
289Israel is fundamentally defensive.以色列基本上是防御性的。
290Iran is fundamentally offensive.伊朗从根本上来说是进攻性的。
291Zionism, whatever one thinks of its consequences, it's a national project.锡安主义,无论人们认为它的后果如何,都是国家计划.
292It's local.地方志.
293It's based in Israel.总部位于以色列.
294Wilayat al-Fakir本质上是跨国的。
295It's designed to be它的设计是
296supported.支持 。
297No, thank you.不 谢谢
298Israel may be very prickly and has occupied, probably illegally,以色列可能非常挑剔 占领,可能非法占领,
299a considerable portion of territory and treated the population of the occupied territories with相当大一部分领土和对待被占领土上的居民
300contempt.藐视法庭
301But from the date of its foundation, it was surrounded by neighbors wanting to wipe但从成立之日起 周围都是想擦的邻居
302it off the map.地图上的
303And although most have become tacit allies of Israel, not all have.虽然大多数人已成为以色列的默认盟友,但并非所有人都如此。
304And Iran还有伊朗
305provides the most stark example, the most obvious example here.提供了最鲜明的例子,最明显的例子。
306How can Israel remain anything but以色列怎么能够保持一切?
307porcupine in the region when one of its most powerful and influential neighbors该地区最强大最有影响力的海豚
308wants to utterly annihilate it?想彻底消灭它吗?
309It's part of their founding doctrine.这是他们创立学说的一部分.
310Now, by contrast, we have the Iranian government whose approach to regional stability, I think,现在,相比之下,伊朗政府, 我认为,
311can be described best by a little anecdote from an old chemistry professor of mine.最好用我一个化学教授的传闻来描述
312Now,现在,
313bear with me on this one.跟我来
314He was an Iranian Christian himself.他本人是伊朗基督徒.
315As a child, bored of sitting作为一个孩子,厌倦坐
316on a fishing boat holding a rod, he decided that a better approach would be to throw a handful of他决定,更好的办法就是扔几块
317dynamite in the pond.炸药在池塘。
318See what happened then.看看后来发生了什么
319Interestingly enough, he did catch some fish.有意思的是 他确实钓到了鱼
320Never mind.没关系
321He did catch some fish.他确实抓了一些鱼。
322But unfortunately, they were all blown to smithereens.但不幸的是,他们都被炸成碎片
323And that story, frankly, describes Iran's approach to regional politics.而这个故事坦率地描述了伊朗对地区政治的态度.
324So instead of fishing with所以,与其钓鱼
325a rod, it uses dynamite.棍子,它用炸药。
326And I have to say, Iran has created just about the most eclectic boy band我不得不说,伊朗已经创建了 大约最喜悦的男孩乐队
327of evil known to man.以世人所知道的恶报盟誓,
328Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad's Syria, the Houthis.真主党,哈马斯,阿萨德的叙利亚,胡塞人.
329It's quite the rogues gallery.这是相当的流氓画廊。
330And it's remarkable how each has been allowed to crumble when it's no longer in Iran's interest.并且令人惊叹的是,当伊朗不再有利益时,每个人都被允许崩溃。
331Although, let's be clear, their demise is not lamented.虽然,让我们清楚地知道,他们的灭亡并没有哀叹.
332And it perfectly illustrates my point.这完全说明了我的观点。
333When Israel has demonstrated, for a while it's demonstrated, a remarkable lack of vision当以色列证明, 一段时间它已经证明, 明显缺乏远见
334for Gaza, Iran has demonstrated a remarkable lack of vision everywhere.就加沙而言,伊朗在各地都明显缺乏远见。
335All it has done is focused on sewing discord across the Middle East它所做的一切都集中在 缝纫不和整个中东
336for decades.数十年。
337And its meddling has led to broken states, slaughtered populations,它的干涉导致了国家解体, 屠杀人口,
338and vast human tragedy.和巨大的人类悲剧。
339Now look at Syria.现在看看叙利亚。
340Once the Russo-Iranian puppet Bashar al-Assad曾经是俄罗斯伊朗傀儡巴沙尔·阿萨德
341was given a rather swift kick up the backside by Ahmed al-Sharah, who you rightly mention,Ahmed al-Sharah给了他一个相当迅速的踢背,你正确地提到,
342and his fighters, Syria's recovery has been extraordinary.以及他的战士,叙利亚的复苏是非凡的。
343Imperfect, I don't disagree,不完美,我不反对
344but extraordinary.但很特别
345Working with neighbors far and wide to improve a lot of the Syrian people,为了改善叙利亚人民的生活,
346and handling fairly deftly the delicate ethnic balance which Assad so willingly trampled.阿萨德如此心甘情愿地践踏了微妙的种族平衡。
347Yet I would argue that it is highly likely that Syria would never have been given a chance但我认为,叙利亚很可能永远不会有机会
348if Iran had not been so distracted by its other proxies, wars.如果伊朗没有被其他代理人如此分心的话,战争。
349So it failed to help所以没有帮助
350Assad and Syria under its old regime.阿萨德和叙利亚在其旧政权统治下.
351I'm saying this is a fundamental good.我说这是个基本好处
352Now thank you.谢谢
353Israel's interference in Syria has not helped its recovery, don't get me wrong,以色列对叙利亚的干涉并没有帮助叙利亚的恢复,不要误解我,
354but it has not fundamentally prevented it.但它并没有从根本上阻止它。
355I'm hopeful also that the systematic我也希望系统化
356destruction of Hezbollah will create similar opportunities in Lebanon.真主党的破坏将在黎巴嫩创造类似的机会。
357Now the Houthis,现在胡塞人,
358meanwhile, lead me on to one of the most concrete examples of how Iran is endangering the region.同时,请让我举出伊朗如何危及该地区的最具体的例子之一。
359Iran has used this proxy force to strike at the maritime arteries in the Middle East,伊朗利用这支代理部队 攻击中东的海脉
360destabilizing wider trade flows.破坏更广泛的贸易流动。
361Consider the two critical maritime theaters,想想这两个关键的海洋剧院,
362waters off Yemen leading to the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz.也门通往苏伊士运河和霍尔木兹海峡的水域。
363In the Red Sea,在红海
364the Houthi campaign, backed and enabled by Iran, has launched drones, missiles and raids on在伊朗的支持和扶持下,胡塞运动发动了无人机、导弹和袭击
365container ships, forcing them to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, disrupting extraordinarily迫使他们绕着好望角转道 扰乱了我们的航线
366global finance, and particularly the Middle East.全球金融,特别是中东金融。
367Meanwhile in the Strait of Hormuz,与此同时,在霍尔木兹海峡,
368Iran's own geography and threats to disrupt tanker traffic render the route an enormous伊朗自身的地理位置和破坏油轮交通的威胁使航线变得十分庞大。
369lever for them.他们的杠杆。
370Some 20 million barrels of crude oil a day pass through this choke point,每天约有2 000万桶原油经过这个窒息点,
371and roughly a fifth of global crude consumption depends on it.全球粗耗的大约五分之一依赖于它。
372When Iran uses threats or actions当伊朗使用威胁或行动时
373by itself, all via its proxies, to interfere with passage, the ripple effect is very severe.单靠自身,全部通过它的代理,干扰通过,波纹效应非常严重.
374They have established a pattern of behavior using maritime vulnerability as a strategic tool.它们以海上脆弱性为战略工具,确立了一种行为模式。
375It is没错
376not defensive, but rather a coercive strategy designed to shake the region, raise costs,不是防御性的,而是旨在动摇该地区的强制战略,增加成本,
377generate fear, and impair the normal commerce on which regional stability and global stability造成恐惧,损害区域稳定和全球稳定的正常商业
378require.要求。
379Israel frankly has neither the ambition nor the means to do anything comparable.坦率地说,以色列既没有雄心,也没有办法做任何类似的事情。
380Finally, we must consider briefly Iran's willingness to join its allies, Russia,最后,我们必须简要考虑一下伊朗加入其盟国俄罗斯的意愿,
381China and North Korea, your friends that you mentioned, in the war in Ukraine.在乌克兰战争中,你提到的中国和朝鲜的朋友。
382Ukraine is the front line against Russian aggression to the West, to democracy, and Iran乌克兰是反对俄罗斯侵略西方、民主和伊朗的前线
383has really undertaken quite a concerted effort to ensure that it wins, Russia wins.真正作出了相当一致的努力,以确保它获胜,俄罗斯获胜。
384It recognizes它承认
385its position as one of Russia's most important strategic partners.作为俄罗斯最重要的战略伙伴之一。
386It has pledged to head drones它承诺领导无人机
387which have attacked not just Ukrainian military personnel, but civilians and civilian infrastructure,不仅攻击乌克兰军事人员,而且攻击平民和民用基础设施,
388and in doing so it has proven that its malign impact is visible even beyond the Middle East.事实证明,甚至在中东以外,它的恶性影响也是显而易见的。
389Israel's actions, meanwhile, have stayed firmly grounded in the very narrow region.与此同时,以色列的行动仍然牢牢地扎根于这个非常狭窄的区域。
390So in all,所以总而言之,
391hope that you can see why.希望你们能明白原因
392Irrespective of some unbelievably foolish decisions made by the Israeli无论以色列作出什么令人难以置信的愚蠢决定
393government, in the past two years particularly, Iran poses by far the greater threat to regional特别是在过去两年里,伊朗对该区域构成更大的威胁。
394stability, and for that matter, global stability.稳定,以及为此,全球稳定。
395And so with that, thank you,因此,这样,谢谢你,
396and I urge you to vote with the opposition.我敦促你和反对派投票
397Thank you very much.谢谢
398Thank you, well, before we move on to speeches from our esteemed guest speakers,谢谢,在我们开始从尊敬的嘉宾演讲之前,
399I now open to speeches from the house.我现在欢迎来自该堂的发言。
400You can raise your membership card, I will recognize you.你可以提高你的会员卡, 我会认出你。
401We will have only two speeches, one on site proposition, one on opposition,我们只有两场演讲,一场现场演讲,一场反对演讲,
402and then we'll move on to speeches from our esteemed guest speakers.然后我们再从尊敬的嘉宾演讲者发言。
403If you wish to speak,如果你想说话,
404please raise your card now on site proposition.请在现场提议中举牌
405I recognize the member in the green我认得绿色的成员
406there.这里
407Thank you.谢谢
408May the house please come to order, please.愿家请来令.
409Thank you, Mr. President,谢谢你,主席先生,
410for the recognition.为表彰。
411Just to put things into context, we don't need the exact numbers,我们不需要确切的数字
412we don't need the exact military capacities, we don't need to know the exact stance on,我们不需要准确的军事能力 我们不需要知道确切的立场
413the United Nations of the different countries.代表不同国家的联合国。
414We only need to know is that Israel has been我们只需要知道,以色列一直
415deliberately bombing hospitals.故意轰炸医院。
416It has been bombing the areas that have been determined它一直在轰炸已经确定的地区
417as safe havens for citizens to get aid in, for citizens to try to survive when there's no food,作为公民获得援助的安全避难所 公民在没有食物的情况下试图生存
418there's no clean water, disease is spreading and it's tiring to see that only one side is getting没有干净的水,疾病正在蔓延,看到只有一方得到,实在太累了
419called terrorists when clearly a disproportionate amount of violence is being imposed on one side在一方明显施加不成比例的暴力时称为恐怖分子
420by the other side.在另一边。
421It's tiring to see the western nations label all of their actions as self-defense看到西方国家把所有的行动都贴上自卫的标签 实在是太累了
422when their use of violence is so disproportionate to the point that it's defined by definition当他们使用暴力的不相称程度 以至于它的定义
423as genocide and it's also tiring to see people argue that all Muslim people or all Palestinian也令人厌倦地看到人们争论说所有穆斯林人民或所有巴勒斯坦人
424people or all people of a certain region are terrorists, are all just because they're Muslim某个地区的人或所有的人都是恐怖分子 因为他们都是穆斯林
425or just because they don't live with the western standards that have been imposed on the planet,或者仅仅因为他们不 生活在西方标准 已经强加于地球,
426that they are not worthy of our attention.他们不值得我们注意。
427And just to put this into context, we talk about说到背景,我们谈论
428genocide, genocide, genocide, we hear this word everywhere.种族灭绝、种族灭绝、种族灭绝,我们到处听到这个词。
429Think about a child here, right now,想想现在的小孩
430right here, this size, a little child.在这里,这个尺寸,一个小孩。
431They kill those children.他们杀了那些孩子。
432There is no excuse, even if it's没有借口,即使它是
433self-defense, even if it was actually self-defense, there is no excuse for children to be killed,正当防卫,即使它实际上是正当防卫, 没有借口杀死儿童,
434children to be targeted.儿童将成为目标。
435It's not like they're bombing military bases and children happen to他们不是在轰炸军事基地 孩子们碰巧
436be here.在这里。
437No, no.没有,没有。
438They bombed the places where there should be civilians and there is no greater他们轰炸了应该有平民的地方,没有更多的地方了。
439threat to instability than that because that means international law has been rendered meaningless.国际法已经变得毫无意义。
440That means no measure of safety, no measure of negotiation is impactful as of now and that is这意味着没有安全措施,没有谈判措施影响现在,也就是说,
441due to Israel's actions.由于以色列的行动。
442Thank you.谢谢
443I now look for a speaker in opposition of the motion.我现在找一位反对该动议的发言者。
444I recognize the ex-elected member of standing committee, St. Cross College.我承认前常务委员会委员圣十字学院。
445Well, I wasn't planning on intervening in this motion, but I exactly was inspired by the honorable我本不打算介入这个动议的 但我完全被尊敬的
446gentleman here, by the delivery of one historical nation that proceeds naturally, but I would say在这里,先生们,通过交付 一个历史国家 自然发展, 但我会说
447idiosyncratically, the state of Iran, in this case, the state of Persia, but also the Medes and the典型地说,伊朗国,在这种情况下,波斯国,但也有美底人和美底人。
448Persians, and I do not want to make a religious standpoint when I reference the book of Daniel波斯人,我不想谈宗教观点 当我提到丹尼尔的书
449in the Old Testament, understanding how the Medes and the Persians relied on the Israelites,在《旧约》中,你应当了解麦底人和波斯人是如何信赖以色列的。
450more precisely on prophet Daniel, understanding the regional influence at the time in ancient更确切地说,先知丹尼尔, 理解当时的区域影响 在古代
451Persia on how to counter, and in this case, when they dethroned the Babylonians at the time.波斯研究如何反击,在此情况下,当当时他们将巴比伦人打倒时.
452I'm not trying to say that Iran is the same old state in the time as Persia, but understanding我并不想说伊朗和波斯一样老,
453that idiosyncrasy is inherited, and the way that Iran is managed at the time, I would say that they以及伊朗当时的管理方式,我要说,
454follow the same structural patterns, the same ideas, but the same time transcribed at how it遵循相同的结构模式, 相同的思想, 但同一时间转录如何
455is imposed today, in a matter of understanding how it operates, and I do not want to make, again,今天被强加, 在一个了解它如何运作的问题, 我不想再次,
456a religious standpoint.宗教观点。
457I'm actually inspired at the same time by understanding how an ancient其实我同时也被启发了 理解一个古老的
458nation still persists in the minds and how idiosyncrasy works within their structure.民族在思想中仍然顽固存在,在民族结构中如何发挥特异性。
459Thank you so much.非常感谢
460Thank you, order.谢谢,命令。
461I now look to former Prime Minister of Palestine, Dr.我现在期待巴勒斯坦前总理,博士。
462Steyer 继续做副提议
463Thank you very much.谢谢
464My dear friends, I don't know亲爱的朋友们,我不知道
465whether really this question deserves the debate or not, because we all know what the conclusion这个问题是否真的值得辩论,因为我们都知道结论是什么
466is going to be.这将是。
467Israel is an expansionist colonial state that has been established以色列是一个扩张主义的殖民国家。
468by colonial powers in 1948 on Palestinian territories, and it did cause the expulsion1948年在巴勒斯坦领土上被殖民国家
469of 950,000 Palestinians who became refugees, and they have been living in refugee camps* 95万巴勒斯坦人成为难民,他们一直生活在难民营
470since 1948.自1948年以来。
471These people have not been camping in Syria and Lebanon and Jordan.这些人没有在叙利亚、黎巴嫩和约旦露营。
472These people have been living in miserable situations, waiting for the right of return这些人一直生活在悲惨的境地,等待返回的权利
473to their homeland, and when Israel was established as a watchdog for imperial powers to safeguard当以色列成为帝国主义势力的守护者
474in the Suez Canal, Israel designed its policies on the basis of racial discrimination,在苏伊士运河,以色列根据种族歧视制定了政策,
475not only against the Palestinians, but against Oriental Jews, against Ethiopian Jews,不仅针对巴勒斯坦人,而且针对东方犹太人,针对埃塞俄比亚犹太人,
476this apartheid regime that has been installed since the creation of the state of Israel自以色列建国以来建立的种族隔离制度
477in 1948.1948年参加.
478And Israel has a function in the region to safeguard the flow of oil,以色列在该地区有保障石油流通的职能,
479as cheap as it should be, and as easy as it should be.如其贱贱,亦如其易.
480This superior power in the region该地区这个超级大国
481today has acted, and it has been acting, in the most aggressive power ever, like a cowboy in the今天已经行动了, 它一直在行动, 以有史以来最具攻击性的权力, 像牛仔在
482West.韦斯特.
483Israel today and their leaders are talking about Greater Israel.以色列及其领导人今天正在谈论大以色列。
484What is Greater Israel?伟大的以色列是什么?
485It is an Israel between the Nile and the Euphrates rivers, and so Greater Israel is the most尼罗河和幼发拉底河之间是以色列 所以大以色列是最大的
486important doctrine for the destabilization of the region.破坏该区域稳定的重要理论。
487Look, my dear friends, in 1967,听着,亲爱的朋友们,1967年
488Israel has occupied the West Bank, Jerusalem, Sinai, the Golan Heights, south of Lebanon,以色列占领了西岸、耶路撒冷、西奈、戈兰高地、黎巴嫩南部,
489and Jordanian territories.和约旦领土。
490And then, in 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, reached the capital of1982年,以色列入侵黎巴嫩,到达黎巴嫩首都
491Lebanon, Beirut, killed many innocent people, destroyed so many houses and properties,黎巴嫩贝鲁特杀害了许多无辜的人,摧毁了这么多房屋和财产,
492and then recently, even though, my dear friend, Ahmad al-Shar'a, who replaced Bashar al-Assad,最近,尽管,我亲爱的朋友艾哈迈德·沙拉取代了巴沙尔·阿萨德,
493sleeps in the same bed with the Americans and the Israelis, still the Israelis are encouraged和美国人和以色列人睡在同一张床上,
494into the heart of Syria, occupying Sharm el-Sheikh and reach Al-Kanitra at a time占领沙姆沙伊赫,一次抵达卡尼特拉
495when Ahmad al-Shar'a is saying, I am ready to make peace with the Israelis.当艾哈迈德·沙拉说,我准备同以色列人讲和。
496Now, more than that, we all know that Israel has bombarded Iraqi installments,现在,不仅如此,我们都知道,以色列轰炸了伊拉克的分期货,
497tried to destroy industrial plants in the heart of Baghdad.试图摧毁巴格达市中心的工厂
498We all know that Israel我们都知道以色列
499also has bombarded Iran and killed Ismail Hani, who was there visiting.还轰炸了伊朗,杀害了当时在场的伊斯梅尔·哈尼。
500We all know我们都知道
501that only a few months ago, Israel has bombarded Qatar in the heart of the capital of Qatar,就在几个月前,以色列轰炸了卡塔尔首都的中心,
502and killing many people because simply Qatar was trying to mediate ceasefire in Gaza.并杀死许多人,因为仅仅因为卡塔尔试图调解加沙的停火。
503Also,还有,
504it was Israel who assassinated its own prime minister, Ishak Rabin, because he wanted to正是以色列暗杀了以色列总理伊沙克·拉宾,因为他想
505make peace with the Palestinians.与巴勒斯坦人建立和平。
506The deep state in Israel never wanted any Israeli leader以色列的深层国家从未想要任何以色列领导人
507to really come to an agreement with the Palestinians to end occupation that has与巴勒斯坦人达成结束占领的协议
508occurred in the Palestinian territories since 1967.1967年以来在巴勒斯坦领土上发生的事件。
509Look at this.看看这个。
510We all know that also Israel我们都知道以色列
511encouraged into Jordan, and they tried to assassinate Khalid Mashal in the heart of the他们试图刺杀哈立德・马沙尔
512that Israel has launched wars, wars on the Palestinians in Gaza, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2012,2002年、2008年、2009年、2012年以色列对加沙巴勒斯坦人发动战争,
5132014.2014 (中文(简体) ).
514Every single year, there is an act of aggression by the Israelis.每年都有以色列人的侵略行为。
515Leave Gaza aside.离开加沙。
516Look at the West Bank.看看西岸
517Today, Israel has planted 881,000 settlers今天,以色列安置了881 000名定居者。
518in the heart of the Palestinian territories, living in 351 Jewish settlements, destabilizing生活在351个犹太定居点,破坏巴勒斯坦
519the whole region, and eroding every possibility of peace based on two-state solution in line with在两国解决办法的基础上,按照《联合国宪章》的规定,消除一切和平的可能性。
520United Nations resolutions.联合国决议。
521Again, my dear friend, no, sir, Israel is committing再说一遍,亲爱的朋友,不,先生,以色列正致力于
522genocide in Gaza.加沙的种族灭绝。
523What do you call killing 100,000 people?什么叫杀十万人?
524What do you call injuring你所谓的伤害
525200,000 people?20万人吗?
526What do you call the destruction of 451,000 houses and making 2.2 million摧毁45.1万间房子 造价220万
527Palestinians going around Gaza from north to south, from east to west, trying to force从北向南、从东向西绕加沙的巴勒斯坦人试图强迫
528Palestinians to be pushed out of Gaza, trying to transfer by force Palestinians thanks to Egypt由于埃及,巴勒斯坦人被赶出加沙,试图以武力转移巴勒斯坦人
529and thanks to our people who refused to leave their own territory.感谢我们拒绝离开自己领土的人民。
530And look at what has happened看看发生了什么
531also.还有
532Israel has pushed the region into arm race because of its aggression.以色列因其侵略而使该地区陷入军备竞赛。
533Israel is the only以色列是唯一一个
534country in the region that does possess nuclear weapons, and the Iranian attempt to have a nuclear该地区拥有核武器的国家和伊朗企图拥有核武器的国家
535weapon is a reaction in the same way that Iraq tried to do, in the same way that Libya tried to武器是伊拉克试图采取的反应,与利比亚试图采取的反应相同。
536So the question is, who initiated aggression and who is acting and who is reacting?因此,问题是,谁发动侵略,谁采取行动,谁作出反应?
537And we know that in 1981, it was Israel who bombarded the Iraqi industrial installations.我们知道,1981年,是以色列轰炸了伊拉克的工业设施。
538Look at what happened also.看看发生了什么
539It was Israel who led assassinations of Arab scientists是以色列领导暗杀阿拉伯科学家
540who graduated from British universities because they think that they have a potential of threat.他们从英国大学毕业 因为他们认为自己有潜在的威胁。
541You cannot kill me if you think that I'm going to kill you.如果你认为我会杀了你 你不能杀我
542This is the logic of a jungle that we should not allow it to happen under any circumstances.这是丛林的逻辑,我们在任何情况下都不应允许这种情况发生。
543And then even on its ally, Israel was conducting espionage against its best ally,然后,即使它的盟友, 以色列正在从事间谍活动 针对它最好的盟友,
544the United States of America.美利坚合众国
545Jonathan Ballard, you all remember this name, who was arrested乔纳森・巴拉德,你们都记得这个名字,谁被逮捕了
546by the Americans because he was spying for Israel.他为以色列做间谍
547So if Israel is spying on its best ally,如果以色列监视它最好的盟友,
548the country that does provide Israel for $3.4 billion every year from American taxpayers,美国纳税人每年向以色列提供34亿美元的国家,
549that is what aggression is about.这就是侵略的目的。
550And that is what destabilizing not only the region,这不仅破坏了该地区的稳定,
551but a cause of destabilization for maybe the whole world.但却是世界不稳定的原因
552Also, my dear friends,还有,亲爱的朋友们,
553Israel has imposed a formula of specialization on the region of what I call the four M's,以色列将我称之为 " 四M " 的专业化模式强加给该地区。
554minds, money, muscles, and market.思想、金钱、肌肉和市场
555The Israeli discrimination and superiority claim that they以色列的歧视和优越性声称:
556are the M for minds, and the Arab Gulf countries are the M for money, and Syria, Lebanon,阿拉伯湾国家是金钱,叙利亚,黎巴嫩,
557Jordan, Palestine, and Egypt are the M for muscles, the cheap labors, and the whole Middle East is约旦、巴勒斯坦和埃及是肌肉的M 廉价劳动力,整个中东
558their market.他们的市场。
559And nobody is allowed to graduate from any of these digits.没有人可以从这些数字中毕业。
560When Iraq tried to当伊拉克试图
561graduate, Iraq was destroyed.毕业后,伊拉克被摧毁。
562So therefore, when you look at Israeli policies in the region,因此,当你观察以色列在该地区的政策时,
563we all understand what does superiority mean, and what does aggression mean,我们都明白优越意味着什么 侵略意味着什么
564and what does expansion mentality mean as well.扩张的心态也意味着什么。
565My dear friends, 800 United Nations resolutions亲爱的朋友们,800项联合国决议
566have been passed in favor of Palestine.已经通过了有利于巴勒斯坦的决议。
567Israel refused to implement one single United Nations以色列拒绝实施一个联合国
568resolution.决议。
569800!八百块!
570So Israel acts above the law, does not respect international law, does not因此,以色列的行为凌驾于法律之上,不尊重国际法,不
571respect United Nations resolutions, and also, we all know.我们都知道,我们尊重联合国各项决议。
572And here I conclude by saying the following.最后,我要指出以下几点。
573This aggressive state of Israel is military aggressive, a nuclearly armed, a settler colonial以色列的这种侵略性国家是军事侵略性、拥有核武的殖民国家。
574regime that is based on an apartheid regime against the Palestinian people.以针对巴勒斯坦人民的种族隔离制度为基础的政权。
575Brutal occupation,残酷的占领,
576committing crimes and genocide, dragging the region into repeated conflicts.犯下罪行和种族灭绝,使该区域陷入反复的冲突。
577Israeli behavior以色列的行为
578have triggered major conflicts in the region, and look at it.在该地区引发了重大冲突。
579And the Palestinian cause and巴勒斯坦的事业和
580prolonged Israeli occupation and settler colonial regime are the most dangerous以色列的长期占领和定居者殖民政权是最危险的
581flashpoints with consistent potential to escalate in regional wars.在区域战争中具有不断升级潜力的热点。
582Israel is a bariah state and以色列是一个拜利亚国家,
583should be stopped.应停止。
584Israel is a theocratic state that's now killing the Palestinians in the name以色列是一个神权国家,现在正在以这个名义杀害巴勒斯坦人。
585of God.这是上帝的旨意
586God will never allow that.上帝不会允许的
587God is supposed to be the ally of poor people and people who are上帝应该是穷人的盟友
588living under oppression, and God calls for freedom.生活在压迫之下,上帝呼吁自由。
589Israel is causing misery, genocide,以色列正在制造痛苦 种族灭绝
590expansion mentality, settler colonialism, creating buffer zone.扩张心态 定居者殖民主义 制造缓冲区
591Every time Israel creates a buffer每次以色列制造缓冲
592zone in south Lebanon, they want to push the Lebanese army to the north, in Jordan, in Egypt,他们想把黎巴嫩军队推向北部 约旦 埃及
593and everywhere.到处都是
594We should not allow this to happen.我们不应允许这种情况发生。
595The issue is not about a student debate问题不是学生辩论
596at the Oxford Union.在牛津大学
597The issue is about life of people in the region.问题在于该地区人民的生活。
598We all should say that我们都该说
599Israel is the cause of the destabilization of the region, and thank you.以色列是造成该地区不稳定的原因,谢谢。
600Thank you for your speech.谢谢你的演讲
601I now look to Mr. Hilal Noor to continue the case for side opposition.我现在期待希拉尔·努尔先生继续提出反对意见。
602Mr. President, I confess I hesitated before agreeing to debate this evening,主席先生,我承认我迟疑了 才同意今晚的辩论,
603because doing so risks dignifying a proposition so disconnected from basic facts that it verges因为这样做有可能会 贬低一个命题 与基本事实如此脱节
604on the satirical.在讽刺。
605That Israel, of all states, poses a greater threat to regional stability所有国家中的以色列对区域稳定构成更大的威胁
606than the Islamic Republic of Iran.与伊朗伊斯兰共和国相比。
607But we now live in an age where people will believe但我们现在生活在人们会相信的时代
608almost anything.几乎任何东西。
609Nearly one in four people in this country aged 18 to 34 believe that the 7-7 terrorist18至34岁的人几乎每四人中就有一人认为7至7名恐怖分子
610attacks were, quote, probably a hoax.引用的话 袭击可能是个骗局
611And here in this Oxford Union, we saw that just three weeks在牛津大学,我们只看到三个礼拜
612ago, no less than 501 members believed it was right to vote in support of the incoming president至少有501名成员认为支持下届总统是正确的
613after he had publicly celebrated the killing of Charlie Kirk.在他公开庆祝查理柯克被杀之后
614And so I decided to attend and to所以我决定去参加
615lay out a few essential facts proving that tonight's proposition is not merely wrong,提出一些基本事实,证明今晚的提议不单单是错误的,
616but the in version of reality.但现实的版本。
617Regional stability is measured by who starts wars,以谁发动战争来衡量区域稳定,
618not by who stops them.不是由谁阻止他们。
619Israel does not arm terror proxies in five Arab countries,以色列不武装五个阿拉伯国家的恐怖代理人,
620the Islamic regime in Iran does that.伊朗的伊斯兰政权这样做。
621And the entire Middle East knows this, and that is why整个中东都知道,这就是为什么
622Arab states quietly depend on Israel for their own survival.阿拉伯国家悄悄地依靠以色列生存。
623Fact number one, the moderate Sunni Arab事实一,温和的逊尼派阿拉伯人
624states are part of a strategic alliance with Israel beginning four decades ago.国家是40年前开始的与以色列的战略联盟的一部分。
625Egypt signed埃及签署
626a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.1979年与以色列签订和平条约。
627Jordan did so in 1994.约旦是1994年这样做的。
628The historic Abraham Accords in 2020具有历史意义的2020年亚伯拉罕协定
629brought together the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, signing peace and阿拉伯联合酋长国、巴林、摩洛哥、苏丹签署和平和
630normalization agreements with Israel.与以色列的正常化协定。
631The Accords recognize that the Arab and Jewish peoples《协定》承认阿拉伯和犹太人民
632are descendants of a common ancestor, Abraham, that both peoples are indigenous to the region,他们是共同祖先亚伯拉罕的后裔 亚伯拉罕是该地区的土著
633and they articulate a vision of advancing a culture of peace, security, and prosperity.它们阐明了促进和平、安全与繁荣文化的愿景。
634No, I am interrupted all the time at the United Nations by the worst regimes.不,我在联合国一直被最坏的政权打断。
635In Oxford, I shall在牛津,我会
636speak uninterrupted.说话不间断。
637Fact number two, Saudi Arabia, custodian of the two holy mosques,事实二 沙特阿拉伯 两座清真寺的守护者
638has also developed a significant rapprochement with Israel.还同以色列建立了重大的和解关系。
639Indeed, in the minutes that they确实,在他们的时间
640captured of the Hamas leadership meetings that were held days before their decision to invade在哈马斯领导人决定入侵前几天举行的会晤中被捕
641Israel and launch the war and massacre of October 7th, 2023, in the minutes of Hamas it was written,以色列并发动2023年10月7日的战争和屠杀 在哈马斯的会议记录中,
642quote, there is no doubt that the Saudi Zionist normalization agreement is progressing毫无疑问,沙特犹太复国主义正常化协定正在取得进展。
643significantly, and so Hamas decided, unquote, an extraordinary action to try and torpedo it.因此,哈马斯决定,不言而喻,采取非同寻常的行动,试图将其炸掉。
644Fact, the regional alliance between Israel and the moderate Arab countries was resilient enough to事实上,以色列和温和的阿拉伯国家之间的区域联盟具有足够的复原力,足以
645survive the war of the past two years.在过去两年的战争中幸存下来
646Last year, neighboring Egypt and Jordan imported a record去年,邻国埃及和约旦进口了一张唱片
647amount of natural gas from Israel.以色列天然气量。
648Israel provides parched Jordan with 100 million cubic meters of以色列向约旦提供1亿立方米的干燥水。
649water every year.每年有水
650How is Israel a threat to regional stability?以色列如何威胁区域稳定?
651The truth is the opposite.事实恰恰相反。
652One of the most powerful illustrations of this regional alliance came last year on April 13th,去年4月13日,这个区域联盟最有力的例子之一,
6532024, when the Islamic regime in Iran launched an unprecedented attack on the people of Israel with2024年,伊朗的伊斯兰政权用
654170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles.170架无人机,30枚巡航导弹,120多枚弹道导弹.
655No.没有
656Those who helped shoot down那些帮助击落的人
657the incoming weapons included the air forces, not only of the US, the UK, and France, but Jordan,包括美国、英国和法国的空军 还有约旦的空军
658while Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates contributed intelligence,沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国等海湾国家提供了情报,
659including radar tracking information.包括雷达跟踪信息。
660Now, this wasn't a one-off.这不是一次性的
661When Iran attacked Israel again当伊朗再次攻击以色列时
662in June 2025, Jordan shot down Iranian missiles and drones, crossing overhead Saudi Arabia,2025年6月,约旦击落伊朗导弹和无人机,飞越沙特阿拉伯上空,
663according to reports, allowed Israel its airspace to do so as well.根据报告,以色列也允许其领空这样做。
664Now, the fact现在,事实
665that Sunni Arab states provided a combination of air force interceptions, radar, and intelligence逊尼派阿拉伯国家提供了空军拦截、雷达和情报的组合
666is a real world vote on tonight's motion.这是对今晚动议的真实投票
667They know, the Arab states know, that for their people,他们知道,阿拉伯国家知道, 对于他们的人民,
668Israel is a partner in survival, and the Islamic regime in Iran is an existential threat.以色列是生存的伙伴,伊朗的伊斯兰政权是生存的威胁.
669You don't你没有
670intercept missiles heading toward a threat to regional stability.拦截向区域稳定构成威胁的导弹。
671You intercept missiles from你拦截导弹从
672Iran.伊朗语。
673So, let us address the real driver of instability, the Islamic regime in Iran,因此,让我们谈谈不稳定的真正驱动因素,即伊朗的伊斯兰政权,
674because revolutionary jihad is their raison d'etre.因为革命圣战是他们的理由
675Let us compare.让我们比较一下。
676Israel, at the very以色列,仅供参考。
677moment of its birth, on May 14, 1948, in its declaration of independence, reached out to在1948年5月14日宣布独立时,
678its neighbors with a simple message, quote, we extend our hand to all neighboring states我们向所有邻国伸出手
679and their peoples in an offer of peace.以及他们的人民,以示和平。
680In Iran, with the Islamic regime, it was the exact opposite.在伊朗,随着伊斯兰政权,情况正好相反。
681One year after the anniversary of the Ayatollah revolution, the Ayatollah declared on February 11,阿亚图拉革命周年纪念一年后,阿亚图拉于2月11日宣布,
6821980, quote, we shall export our revolution to the whole world until the cry there is no god1980年,引用,我们将把我们的革命输出给全世界,直到没有上帝的呼喊
683but Allah resounds over the whole world.但真主使全世界都震荡。
684There will be struggle.会有斗争的
685And that is what they do in他们就是这么做的
686the region and beyond.区域内外。
687Iran, through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, exports伊朗通过其伊斯兰革命卫队伊斯兰革命卫队出口
688terrorism and war.恐怖主义与战争。
689And wherever they go in the region, they bring ruin to societies.无论他们到哪里,都会给社会带来毁灭。
690Let's look.让我们看看。
691No.没有
692Let's look at Yemen.让我们看看也门。
693The Iranian regime destabilizes Yemen.伊朗政权破坏也门的稳定。
694They armed and trained他们武装和训练
695the Houthis, a group whose slogan is death to America, death to Israel, damn the Jews.他的口号是死在美国,死在以色列,
696That那个
697is what they cry out every single day, and Iran is their sponsor.他们每天都在呼喊,伊朗是他们的支持者。
698The Houthis destroyed Yemen.胡塞人摧毁了也门。
699They collapsed state institutions, crippled hospitals and basic services,他们摧毁了国家机构、残废的医院和基本服务,
700diverted aid, deepening famine and economic freefall.援助被挪用、饥荒加剧和经济自由落地。
701Their own people are starving,他们自己的人民正在挨饿,
702hundreds of thousands, yet unprovoked from a thousand miles away with the very few resources几十万人,但无端 从千里之外 与极少的资源
703the country has, the Houthis spend them to launch over 400 missile and drone attacks呼和浩特人用他们发动了400多枚导弹和无人机攻击
704at Israeli cities, all of it sponsored by Iran.在以色列城市,所有这一切都是由伊朗赞助的。
705This is regional stability.这就是区域稳定。
706Now let's look at现在让我们看看
707Lebanon.黎巴嫩。
708Iran's proxy Hezbollah hollowed out every institution in the country, turning Lebanon伊朗的代理真主党 将国内的每个机构 都抛开 使黎巴嫩变成废墟
709into a failed state.进入失败状态。
710They built an Iranian-funded parallel military stronger than the Lebanese他们建造了一支由伊朗人资助的平行军队 比黎巴嫩人更强大
711army.军队
712They seized control of border crossings and ports, converted entire regions into fortified他们夺取了对过境点和港口的管制,将整个地区变成防御工事
713enclaves beyond the reach of the state.飞地超出国家范围。
714Iran's Hezbollah assassinated critics, toppled Lebanese伊朗真主党暗杀批评者,
715governments that tried to assert sovereignty, dragged Lebanon into wars that its people试图维护主权的政府将黎巴嫩拖入其人民的战争中
716never chose.从来没有选择。
717Hezbollah's capture of the economy, fuel smuggling, customs evasion, protection真主党夺取经济 走私燃料 逃关 保护
718rackets, bled the treasury dry and helped trigger Lebanon's financial collapse.导致黎巴嫩金融崩溃。
719And by launching通过发射
720attacks on Israel from civilian neighborhoods, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, ensured that Lebanon真主党在伊朗的支持下,确保黎巴嫩
721would live permanently on the brink of war, scaring off investment, tourism, and any hope将永远生活在战争的边缘 吓跑投资、旅游和任何希望
722of recovery.复原。
723In short, Hezbollah replaced the Lebanese state with an Iranian proxy empire,简而言之,真主党用一个伊朗代理帝国取代了黎巴嫩国家,
724and the result was national ruin.结果是全国的毁灭。
725Let's look at Syria.让我们看看叙利亚。
726When Syrians protested peacefully to当叙利亚人和平抗议
727rise up against Assad regime in 2011, the regime was on the brink of collapse, but the Iranian2011年反抗阿萨德政权,
728regime suddenly intervened to save its client.政权为了拯救客户突然介入。
729They deployed IRGC commanders, imported thousands他们部署了伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官,进口数千人
730of Shiite militia from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Lebanon, overseeing sectarian cleansing in key来自伊拉克、阿富汗和黎巴嫩的什叶派民兵,
731the coast.岸边
732Tehran funded and directed a campaign of mass atrocities.德黑兰资助并指挥了大规模暴行运动。
733You can see the mass graves你可以看到乱葬坑
734that have been revealed on TV in Syria.在叙利亚的电视上披露的
735From starvation sieges to chemical weapons attacks,从饥饿包围到化学武器攻击
736killing hundreds of thousands of people.杀害数十万人。
737Half a million people are estimated to have been killed估计有50万人被杀
738by the Syrian regime promoted by Iran.伊朗推动的叙利亚政权。
739They also displaced millions, meaning half the population.他们还使数百万人流离失所,即人口的一半。
740Iran entrenched militias across Syria, built missile factories on their soil, used the country伊朗在叙利亚各地建立民兵组织,在其领土上建造导弹工厂,利用国家
741as a forward base to attack Israel, and threatened Jordan.作为进攻以色列的前沿基地 威胁着约旦
742Iran did not stabilize Syria.伊朗没有稳定叙利亚。
743It shattered粉碎了 粉碎了 粉碎了
744it, and the moment that Hezbollah, Iran's proxy, fell, the people rose up to challenge them.伊朗的代理人真主党一败涂地,
745Now,现在,
746Iran has done the same to Iraq.伊朗对伊拉克也这样做。
747They destroyed Iraq.他们摧毁了伊拉克。
748They did the same to Gaza.他们对加沙也这样做。
749They transformed他们变了
750Hamas.哈马斯。
751No, they transformed Hamas into a mini army.不,他们把哈马斯变成迷你军队。
752Tehran funded rockets, tunnels, drone programs,德黑兰资助了火箭、隧道、无人机计划
753while Hamas diverted aid from civilians to weapons.哈马斯将援助从平民转移到武器。
754Instead of building a future for Palestinians,而不是为巴勒斯坦人建立一个未来,
755Hamas, with Iranian training, built an underground fortress beneath homes,哈马斯在伊朗训练下,在家园下面建造了一个地下堡垒,
756hospitals, and schools.医院和学校。
757The result was October 7th.结果是10月7日.
758No, no, no.不,不,没有。
759The deadliest massacre of Jews对犹太人最致命的屠杀
760since the Holocaust.自大屠杀以来
761Gaza, you know, is a beautiful beachfront property.加沙是一个美丽的海滩。
762It could have been prosperous.本来可以很繁荣
763You've never been there.你从来没有去过那里。
764I've been there.我去过那里。
765The sand, the beaches of Gaza are beautiful and can be a沙子,加沙的海滩很美,可以是一个
766beautiful property, but Iran, with Hamas, made it a military outpost for its war on Israel,但伊朗和哈马斯 将它作为以色列战争的军事据点
767condemning Palestinians to endless conflict.谴责巴勒斯坦人进行无休止的冲突。
768Now, now.现在,现在。
769Please, no.请不要。
770Please, we're here to have a civil拜托,我们是来找平民的
771debate.辩论。
772Please do not heckle.请不要扭动。
773Please continue the case.请继续办
774Let us finally look beyond the region.让我们最终超越该区域。
775Iran hires hitmen to assassinate dissidents around the globe.伊朗聘请杀手在全球暗杀持不同政见者.
776Just a few days ago, I was几天前,我刚刚
777with my friend Masi Alinajad, the great Iranian women's rights activist who prompted the women与我的朋友 Masi Alinajad,伟大的伊朗女权活动家 推动这些女性
778life freedom movement.生命自由运动。
779They tried to kill her.他们试图杀死她。
780She lives in New York now, exiled dissident.她现在住在纽约 流放异见者
781They tried to kill her three times, sent hitmen to her house in Brooklyn.他们三次试图杀死她,派杀手去布鲁克林她家.
782I was at the trial我当时在庭审中
783in March.3月份,我们开始
784Three teams came to try and kidnap her and kill her.三个小队来试图绑架她并杀死她.
785They've sent dissidents他们派了持不同政见者
786here in the UK to try, they sent hitmen to try and kill the journalist Puri Azarati.在英国,他们派杀手 试图杀死记者Puri Azarati。
787Now, the dissidents have been attacked across Europe, and I would be remiss not to mention现在,持不同政见者在欧洲各地遭到攻击,我不得不说
788that an Oxford human rights lawyer here, the founding head of the Oxford Public Interest牛津人权律师,牛津公益事业的创始人
789Kaveh Musavi在牛津的节目,
790January 30th, 2023, brought to the UK police with another human rights lawyer, asserting2023年1月30日,与另一位人权律师一起被带往英国警方,声称
791that Mr. Moha Jerani of Iran, who was a senior regime official for 20 years, including between伊朗的Moha Jerani先生,曾担任20年的高级政权官员,包括
7921988 and 1997, during a period, I quote from The Guardian, during a period when hundreds of1988年和1997年,我引述《卫报》的一段时期,当时数百人
793assassinations of dissidents in Europe were attempted and committed on the orders of the欧洲的持不同政见者被暗杀未遂,是奉欧洲联盟的命令进行的。
794Iranian regime, and he was a senior regime official, the human rights lawyers from Oxford伊朗政权,他是一个高级政权官员,来自牛津的人权律师
795also claim that in Mr. Moha Jerani's 1989 book, A Critique of the Satanic Versus Conspiracy,还声称在Moha Jerani先生1989年的著作《撒旦凡尔苏斯阴谋论》中,
796where he endorses and justifies the fatwa issued by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1999 against the famed他赞同并证明1999年霍梅尼阿亚图拉针对名人发布的法特瓦案是合理的。
797novelist Salman Rushdie, who was stabbed 15 times in 2022 as a result, presumably, of this fatwa.小说家萨勒曼·拉什迪(Salman Rushdie),他在2022年被刺了15次,大概是因为这个法特瓦.
798In the book, Mr. Moha Jerani writes in his book that Rushdie is, quote, an absolute apostate,在书中,莫哈·杰拉尼先生在他的书中写道,拉什迪是一个绝对的叛教者,
799and the punishment of an apostate is execution.对叛教者的惩罚是处决。
800So, Mr. Moha Jerani, tonight, you say you stand那么 莫哈·杰拉尼先生 今晚 你说你站着
801for regional stability, but you have once blessed the idea that an author, a citizen of this country,但你们曾经祝福一个作家 这个国家的公民
802should be killed for writing a book.应该因为写书而被杀
803So, please tell this house, do you still believe that writers所以,请告诉这房子, 你还相信作家
804deserve death, or will you finally retract and renounce your support for that fatwa?或者你最终会收回 并放弃你对法特瓦的支持吗?
805Mr. President, Iran not only sends hitmen around the world to assassinate dissidents and journalists,主席先生,伊朗不仅派遣杀手在世界各地暗杀持不同政见者和记者,
806but they beat, blind torture, and kill women who protest.但他们殴打、施以盲目的折磨、杀害抗议的妇女。
807In Israel, it's a national pastime to在以色列,这是国家消遣
808lambaste the government.羊羔政府。
809In Tel Aviv, on Saturday evening, protests have often drawn tens of thousands在特拉维夫,星期六晚上,抗议活动经常吸引数万人。
810and even hundreds of thousands of demonstrators.乃至数十万示威者.
811In Iran, during the women's life freedom protests在伊朗,在女性自由抗议期间
812in 2022, the regime arrested 20,000 people across 130 cities, at least 551 Iranians,2022年,该政权逮捕了130个城市的20,000人,至少551名伊朗人,
813including dozens of children, were killed for protesting.包括数十名儿童,因抗议而被杀害。
814Is this stability?这是稳定吗?
815To conclude,最后,
816in the final analysis, Mr. President, the greatest threat to regional stability is a regime主席先生,归根结底,对区域稳定的最大威胁是政权
817that murders its own people, hunts its critics across Europe and America, arms terror proxies,那些谋杀自己人的人, 猎杀整个欧美的批评者, 武器恐怖的代理人,
818and exports terrorism on four continents.并在四大洲输出恐怖主义。
819The Islamic regime in Iran has killed hundreds of伊朗伊斯兰政权杀害了数百人
820thousands in Syria, shattered Yemen through the Houthis, bankrupted Lebanon through Hezbollah,数千人在叙利亚,通过胡塞河粉碎也门, 通过真主党使黎巴嫩破产,
821hijacked Iraq through militias, and turned Gaza into a launching pad for the worst massacre of通过民兵劫持伊拉克,将加沙变成最严重的大屠杀的发射台。
822Jews since the Holocaust.大屠杀以来的犹太人.
823At home, it shoots women in the streets, blinds teenagers, tortures在家里,它拍女人在街上, 盲人青少年,酷刑
824dissidents, and executes protesters.并处决抗议者。
825It sends assassins to murder innocent people in Brooklyn,它派刺客去谋杀布鲁克林的无辜者
826London, Buenos Aires.伦敦,布宜诺斯艾利斯。
827This is not a government seeking stability.这不是一个寻求稳定的政府。
828It is a revolutionary engine这是革命的引擎
829of hate, terror, and chaos.仇恨、恐怖和混乱
830Israel, by contrast, is the firewall that Arab regimes understand相反,以色列是阿拉伯政权理解的防火墙。
831prevents Iran's imperial project from engulfing the region.阻止伊朗帝国主义计划席卷该地区.
832To claim Israel is the greater threat宣称以色列是最大的威胁
833to stability is not merely wrong, but it is an inversion of reality itself.对稳定来说,这不仅是错误的,而且是对现实本身的颠倒。
834I urge you to vote我敦促你们投票
835for the opposition.为反对派。
836Thank you.谢谢
837I urge everyone, we are here to debate ideas, not attack each我敦促大家,我们是来辩论想法的,不是攻击每一个
838other personally.其他个人。
839Please, let's focus on the motion and have good civil debate.请大家集中考虑动议,好好进行民间辩论.
840Please,
841Mr. Mahajrani, I welcome you to conclude the case beside proposition.马哈亚拉尼先生,我欢迎你结束这个案子。
842Thank you, Mr. President.谢谢你,总统先生。
843Good evening, everybody.晚上好,大家好,谢谢
844In the name of God, the most gracious, the most wise.以神为名,最仁义,最智.
845I'm very pleased我很高兴
846and honored to be here at the Oxford Union.很荣幸来到牛津大学
847Let me begin with a short story.让我先讲一个简短的故事。
848A man who looked a一个看起来像
849bit like real Donald Trump, not really Donald Trump, went to an Iranian restaurant in Manhattan.有点像真正的唐纳德·特朗普, 不是真的唐纳德·特朗普, 去了伊朗餐馆 在曼哈顿。
850As soon as he sat down, he shouted, it's very hot in here.他一坐下就大喊大叫 这里很热
851Turn on the air conditioning.打开空调
852The waiter obeyed.侍者听从.
853Five minutes later, he shouted, it's very cold.5分钟后,他大喊大叫,非常冷.
854Turn off the air conditioning.关掉空调
855They did.没错
856This happened three times.这种事发生了三次
857Throughout it all, the waiter remained calm and smiling.在整个过程中,服务员保持冷静和微笑.
858Someone, maybe Mamdani's real uncle, asked the waiter, what is the secret of your有人,也许玛姆达尼的叔叔 问服务员,你的秘密是什么?
859calmness in the face of this customer's shouting?面对这个顾客大喊大叫 冷静?
860And the temperature here seems这里的温度似乎
861perfectly normal and stable anyway.完全正常和稳定。
862The waiter replied, actually, we don't have any air服务员回答,其实我们没有空气
863conditioning in this restaurant.这餐厅的空调。
864The heat and cold are all in the customer's mind.热寒皆是客心.
865Their peace and war are based on their imaginary and fantasy.他们的和平与战争是基于他们的想象和幻想。
866There are many examples of wars, including against other countries,有许多战争的例子,包括针对其他国家的战争,
867based on illusion and false imagination.基于幻觉和虚幻的想象
868In 1812, Napoleon marched on Russia with an army of1812年,拿破仑用一支
869600,000.六十万 600,000.
870He captured Moscow, but was eventually forced to retreat.他攻占了莫斯科,但最终被迫撤退.
871Alexander the First did not surrender.亚历山大一世没有投降.
872Almost half a million of Napoleon's soldiers近五十万拿破仑的士兵
873were killed, captured, or went missing.被杀、被俘或失踪。
874Leo Tolstoy, in the final chapter of the里欧·托尔斯泰,最后一章
875Third Book of War and Peace, writes that the manuals on how to care for horses in Napoleon's army《战争与和平第三本书》写道, 拿破仑军队中如何照顾马匹的手册
876filled 30 thick volumes, explaining how to groom them and even what kinds of sweets填满了30个厚厚的卷子, 解释如何培养它们, 甚至是什么样的甜品
877to feed them.供养他们。
878But they had never imagined, and therefore never written, what to do when hunger但是他们从未想过,因此也从未写过 饥饿时该怎么办
879became so severe that they would be forced to slaughter their own exhausted starving horses变得如此严重,以至于他们被迫屠杀自己疲惫不堪的饿马
880that could no longer walk.已经走不动了
881A second example is Iraq's war against Iran.第二个例子是伊拉克对伊朗的战争。
882For the first time这是第一次
883in modern history, after the Second World War, NATO and the Warsaw Pact effectively stood在现代历史中,第二次世界大战后,北约和华沙条约有效存在
884on the same side.同一边.
885The United States, the Soviet Union, and most of the European countries supported美国、苏联和大多数欧洲国家支持
886They assumed that Iran would submit他们认为伊朗将提交
887and eventually disintegrate.并最终消散.
888Tony Blair states this quite explicitly in his book,托尼·布莱尔在他的书中非常明确地指出,
889A Journey, describing it as a tactical move一个旅程,形容它是一个战术动作
890that turn into a strategic mistake.这变成了一个战略错误。
891It's very, very important quote.这是非常,非常重要的引文。
892On page 388, he writes, in the 1980s,在388页,他写道,在1980年代,
893we, means USA and UK and others, had arms sat down.我们,是指美国 英国 和其他人,有武器坐下。
894We had the Mujahideen in Afghanistan,我们在阿富汗有圣战者组织
895so as to thwart Iran in one case在一个案件中挫败伊朗
896and the Soviet Union in the other.和苏联在另一个国家。
897It was a tactical move, but a strategic mistake.这是一个战术动作,但战略错误。
898And on page 435, he says,在435页,他说,
899I was doing what I thought was right,我做了我认为对的事
900but by God, I wished I wasn't doing that.但上帝,我希望我没有这样做。
901What was the price of Bush and Blair fantasies?布什和布莱尔幻想的代价是什么?
902One million Iranians and Iraqis were killed during the war.100万伊朗人和伊拉克人在战争中丧生。
903One of them was my brother.其中一个是我哥哥
904A third example, in the fantasy of the United States,第三个例子是在美国的幻想中
905American politicians, and even Bernard Lewis,美国政治家,甚至伯纳德·刘易斯
906as advisor to Dick Cheney,作为迪克·切尼的顾问
907and a driving advocate of attacking Iran以及攻击伊朗的鼓动者
908after the invasion of Iraq in 2003.在2003年入侵伊拉克之后。
909John Bolton, who has twice been a guest约翰·博尔顿,他两次是客人
910of the Oxford Union, and has spoken at length about Iran并长篇大论伊朗
911and the fall of the Islamic Republic,和伊斯兰共和国的沦陷,
912declared in September 2019,于2019年9月宣布,
913at the gathering of Mujahideen,在圣战者的集会上,
914that before the end of the year,在年底之前,
915we will celebrate victory in Tehran.我们将在德黑兰庆祝胜利。
916In other words, they would march into Tehran换句话说,他们会进军德黑兰
917in less than four months.不到四个月。
918Now, more than six years have passed since Bolton's promise.现在,博尔顿的承诺已经过去了六年多。
919And instead of going to Tehran,而不是去德黑兰,
920next week, he is scheduled to appear下星期,他定会出庭
921in court in the United States.在美国的法院。
922These fantasies resulted in the 12-day war这些幻想导致了12天的战争
923waged by Israel and the United States,以色列和美国的侵略,
924of course, with NATO's cooperation against Iran.当然,与北约合作打击伊朗。
925Yet the Islamic Republic still stands.然而,伊斯兰共和国仍然存在。
926The land of Iran and the Iranian nation伊朗和伊朗民族的土地
927have not been divided.未分割。
928Reality is different from what was in the minds现实不同于脑海
929of the Trump and Netanyahu,川普和内塔尼亚胡,
930like the hot weather and cold weather,像炎热的天气和寒冷的天气,
931and from what is still in their minds.以及他们心中仍然在想的东西。
932We never shall flak, we never shall fall,我们从不摔倒,从不摔倒,
933we never shall surrender, as even if.我们永远不会投降,就像即使。
934Imagination and reality,想象与现实,
935why have these fantasies been so far from reality,为什么这些幻想 远离现实,
936and why do they remain so?为什么它们仍然如此?
937Because they do not understand Iran, the country,因为他们不了解伊朗,这个国家,
938the people, or the revolution.人民,或革命。
939If the United States and its allies如果美国及其盟友
940had truly understood the people of Afghanistan真正理解阿富汗人民
941or the people of Iraq,或伊拉克人民,
942we would not have witnessed such outcomes.我们不会看到这种结果。
943The very outcomes Tony Blair later托尼·布莱尔后来的结果
944called the strategic mistake.所谓的战略错误。
945The Baker-Hamilton report,贝克-哈米尔顿的报告,
946prepared by a bipartisan study group由两党研究小组编写
947after the occupation of Iraq伊拉克被占领后
948under the supervision of former Secretary of State,在前国务卿的监督下,
949James Baker, and Congressman Lee Hamilton,詹姆斯・贝克和国会议员李・汉密尔顿,
950clearly shows that the United States and its allies明确显示美国及其盟国
951invaded the country they did not understand,入侵他们不理解的国家,
952and understanding Iran is even more different和理解伊朗 更加不同
953than understanding Afghanistan or Iraq.而不是理解阿富汗或伊拉克。
954In my view, the assessment of Sir Dennis Wright,我认为,丹尼斯·赖特爵士的评估,
955the British ambassador to Iran in the 1970s,1970年代英国驻伊朗大使,
956deserve serious attention.值得认真关注。
957他的评估由Dorgold叙述
958former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations,前以色列驻联合国大使,
959and to the UK,以及联合王国,
960who in 2009 published a book2009年他出版了一本书
961entitled The Rise of Nuclear Iran,题为 " 核伊朗的崛起,
962Have Tehran Defies the West.让德黑兰去西部
963On page 185, he writes,他写道:
964the Iranian are a people who say the opposite伊朗是一个说相反的民族
965of what they think and do the opposite what they say.他们的思维和言语是相反的。
966Dennis Wright, after eight years of living in Iran丹尼斯·赖特,在伊朗生活了八年
967and learned this lesson very well,并很好地吸取了这一教训,
968he was so fluent in Persian,他在波斯语流利,
969当时,伊朗前国王穆罕默德·帕拉维(Mohammad Pahlavi),
970had gone to the Bahamas,去了巴哈马,
971Dennis Wright was sent by the British government丹尼斯·赖特是英国政府派来的
972to meet him, but in a completely unrecognizable disguise,与他见面, 但在一个完全无法辨认的伪装,
973looking like a Hercule Poirot character看起来像赫尔库莱·波罗特的人物
974with a sharp fake mustache, a goatee,带着尖锐的假胡子 山羊皮
975a fedora hat, and a silver steep cane.一只菲多拉帽和一只银尖的拐杖
976Farah Diba mentioned this meeting in her book.法拉·迪巴在她的书中提到这个会议.
977In my view, Iran has four key characteristics我认为伊朗有四个关键特征
978that the United States and the West美国和西方
979have failed to properly understood.未能正确理解。
980One, a deep history of civilization building一,文明建设的深刻历史
981and cultural creation.文化创造。
982第二,按照Shahnameh的叙述
983begins with a mythical era.从神话时代开始
984Three, the experience of the Islamic Revolution.三,伊斯兰革命的经验.
985Four, the experience of the Eight Year War四,八年战争的经验.
986in which Iraq backed by the Warsaw Pact伊拉克在《华沙公约》的支持下
987and NATO fought against Iran.和北约对抗伊朗
988Iran is not like the elephant in the dark room伊朗不像暗室的大象
989of Rome's story.罗马的故事。
990It's possible to get to know this country,可以了解这个国家
991its people, its history, its language, its culture,其人民,历史,语言,文化,
992and its literature, its resistance, its resilience.和它的文学,它的抵抗,它的韧性。
993Why was the Pahlavi regime in Iran伊朗为什么是帕哈维政权?
994so popular with the United States and the West?这么受美国和西方欢迎?
995With the coup of 1943, planned by the U.S. and UK,随着1943年由美国和英国策划的政变,
996the national and lawful government of Dr. MossadeghMossadegh博士的国家和合法政府
997was overthrown.被推翻。
998After the coup, Muhammad Azar Shah became more obedient政变之后,穆罕默德·阿扎尔·沙阿变得更加服从
999to the United States and also to Britain.去美国 也去英国
1000On 31 December 1977, Jimmy Carter described Iran1977年12月31日,吉米·卡特描述了伊朗.
1001when he was in Tehran as an island of stability当他在德黑兰时 是一个稳定的岛屿
1002in one of the more troubled areas of the world.在一个更麻烦的地方
1003This statement is the clearest sign这个声明是最清楚的标志
1004that American did not truly understood Iran.美国并不真正了解伊朗。
1005Only a few months later, the same Carter几个月后,同一个卡特
1006sent General Robert Heiser to Iran派罗伯特·海瑟将军去伊朗
1007in order to plan a military coup为了策划军事政变
1008to prevent the victory of the revolution.防止革命的胜利。
1009But the strange point is what Robert Heiser himself但奇怪的是罗伯特·海瑟本人
1010writes in his book, Mission to Tehran.在他的著作《德黑兰传教书》中写道。
1011The Shah had told the top commanders沙阿告诉了最高指挥官
1012of the three armed forces and the chief of staff和参谋长
1013of the army to obey Heiser's orders.军队服从海瑟的命令
1014Quote, obey him, trust him.引文,服从他,信任他.
1015He is your general because Iran is not dangerous他是你的将军 因为伊朗并不危险
1016by this order.依据此命令。
1017When the Shah was eventually forced当沙阿最终被迫
1018to leave Iran at America's suggestion,根据美国的建议离开伊朗,
1019he complained about this treatment他抱怨这种待遇
1020in his book, Answer to History,在他的"历史的答案"一书中
1021asking why did you treat me this way?问为什么你这样对我?
1022I did everything you asked.你要求的我都照办了
1023Eternal interest, Lord Palmerston帕默斯顿勋爵,永恒的兴趣
1024and later Winston Churchill,后来温斯顿・丘吉尔,
1025famously remarked that we have no eternal allies有名的说 我们没有永恒的盟友
1026and we have no perpetual enemies.我们没有永远的敌人。
1027Our interests are eternal and perpetual我们的利益是永恒和永恒的
1028and those interests, it is our duty to follow以及这些利益,我们有义务遵循
1029the United States and Europe,美国和欧洲,
1030who as Edward Said describes,正如爱德华·赛义德所描述的那样,
1031see themselves as the center of the world将自己视为世界的中心
1032and place other nations and countries to their margins.并让其他国家和国家处于其边缘。
1033West and the rest.西方及余众生.
1034West with capital W, rest with a small r.西与首都W,休息与小r.
1035They decide which country and at what moment他们决定哪个国家和何时
1036is dangerous or not.危险与否。
1037The lawful prime minister of Iran, Dr. Mossadegh,伊朗合法总理摩萨迪格博士,
1038is deemed dangerous and must be overthrown in a coup.被认为是危险的,必须在政变中推翻。
1039Meanwhile, the famous terrorist is suddenly transferred同时,著名的恐怖分子突然被转移
1040into a respectable and favored figure.成为受人尊敬的人
1041Thank you very much.谢谢
1042About my book, Criticizing the Satanic Verses关于我的书, 批评撒旦的寓言
1043that my friend mentioned to it,我的朋友提到,
1044it is another discussion.这是另一个讨论。
1045Maybe, maybe in a very suitable time也许,也许在一个非常合适的时间
1046we can discuss about it.我们可以讨论一下
1047Thank you so much.非常感谢
1048Thank you.谢谢
1049I look to Sir Dominic Schultzcott我找多米尼克·舒尔茨科特爵士
1050to close the case for side opposition.结束对侧面反对的立场。
1051Okay.摆
1052Please conclude the case for side opposition.请结束对侧反对派的反对。
1053Thank you very much, Mr. President.非常感谢主席先生。
1054Ladies and gentlemen,女士们,先生们,
1055thank you, Mr. President,谢谢你,主席先生,
1056for inviting me to address this house你邀请我到这个家
1057on such a consequential question.关于这样一个由此引起的问题。
1058It's been an honor to sit on this bench坐在这个长凳上是我的荣幸
1059and to follow the debate with such distinguished speakers,并随同这些杰出的发言者进行辩论,
1060including a former prime minister and vice president包括一名前总理和副总统
1061and my own side as well,还有我自己的一面
1062and listen to who equally distinguished in their own fields你应当倾听在自己所学的学问,
1063and to listen also to seven really first rate speeches.并聆听7个真正的第一流演讲。
1064As the last speaker tonight,作为今晚最后一位发言者,
1065I risk falling into the trap that everything has been said我冒着掉进陷阱的险,一切都说了
1066but not everybody has said it.但并不是每个人都说过
1067So let me begin by acknowledging the obvious.因此,首先让我承认显而易见的问题。
1068Opposing tonight's motion反对今晚的动议
1069is not a comfortable position to find oneself in.并不是一个舒适的位置 发现自己在。
1070None of us can have watched the suffering我们谁也看不到痛苦
1071of the Palestinians in Gaza without profound distress.加沙巴勒斯坦人没有遭受深重痛苦。
1072And we've heard a very powerful speech tonight我们今晚听到一个非常有力的演讲
1073from the former Palestinian prime minister.来自前巴勒斯坦总理。
1074To oppose this motion is not to excuse反对这个动议不是借口
1075or defend the actions of Israel's current government,或捍卫以色列现任政府的行动,
1076nor is it to deny the humanitarian catastrophe也不是否认人道主义灾难
1077we have witnessed.我们目睹了
1078It is simply to assert soberly and calmly只是冷静而冷静地断言
1079that Iran, not Israel, poses the greater threat伊朗而不是以色列构成更大的威胁
1080to the stability of the whole region.维护整个区域的稳定。
1081Let us start with the recent horrors.让我们从最近的恐怖开始。
1082On October the 7th, 2023,2023年10月7日 (中文(简体) ).
1083Hamas launched one of the most brutal assaults哈马斯发动了最残酷的攻击之一
1084in modern Middle Eastern history.在现代中东历史中。
10851,195 Israelis were killed.1 195名以色列人被杀害。
1086Among them, 364 young people, civilians, students其中,364名青年、平民、学生
1087at a music festival.在音乐节上。
1088And 251 people were taken hostage.而251人被劫持为人质.
1089Israel's response has been ferocious.以色列的反应是激烈的。
1090According to the Gaza's health authorities,据加沙卫生当局称,
1091more than 69,000 Palestinians have died69 000多名巴勒斯坦人丧生。
1092in the two years since.在两年之后。
1093Aid has been blocked, famine looms,援助受阻,饥荒即将来临,
1094and the world's conscience is rightly troubled.而世界的良知正受到困扰
1095The United Nations humanitarian chief联合国人道主义主管
1096and my friend, Tom Fletcher,我的朋友汤姆·弗莱彻
1097has said blocking humanitarian aid说封锁人道主义援助
1098is a violation of international humanitarian law违反国际人道主义法
1099and the starvation of civilians平民的饥饿
1100as a method of warfare is a war crime.作为一种战争方法是一种战争罪。
1101Israel's settlement policy in the West Bank以色列在西岸的定居点政策
1102continues to be unlawful, unjust, and profoundly damaging.继续是非法、不公正和严重破坏性的。
1103Every British government of the past four decades过去四十年的每个英国政府
1104has said this.已经说过了
1105And I know this not from briefings, but from memory.我不仅从简报中知道这一点,而且从记忆中知道这一点。
1106I stood beside the then British foreign secretary,我站在当时的英国外交大臣旁边
1107Malcolm Rifkind爵士,1997年,拉马拉
1108when he told the press that settlements当他告诉媒体定居点
1109were illegal and must stop.这是非法的,必须停止。
1110And I was with Robin Cook the following year次年我和罗宾·库克在一起
1111when he said the same at Har Homa.他在霍马山也这么说
1112And those warnings were ignored警告是被忽视的,
1113and the consequences are written in blood.后果是用血写的。
1114But we must look beyond today's agony但是我们必须超越今天的痛苦
1115if we are to judge threats to regional stability.如果我们要判断对区域稳定的威胁。
1116The war in Gaza for all its tragedy加沙战争及其悲剧
1117is rooted in a territorial dispute,植根于领土争端,
1118land, sovereignty, statehood.土地、主权、国家。
1119These are, at least in theory,这些是,至少在理论上,
1120resolvable through negotiations.通过谈判解决。
1121The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians,以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的冲突,
1122however entrenched, is a struggle无论多么坚固,都是一场斗争
1123between two peoples over a finite space.两个民族之间,在有限的空间里,
1124The other great geopolitical fault line of the Middle East,中东另一个巨大的地缘政治断层线,
1125the one we too easily forget,那个我们很容易忘记的
1126is sectarian, ideological, and intractable.是宗派、意识形态和棘手的。
1127The struggle between Sunni and Shia Islam,逊尼派和什叶派伊斯兰的斗争,
1128between Saudi Arabia and Iran,沙特阿拉伯与伊朗之间,
1129between pragmatic statecraft and revolutionary zeal.在实用的国术和革命狂热之间
1130And it is Iran that drives and sustains是伊朗推动和维持
1131this wider-ranging contest.这场较广的比赛
1132Since 1979, the Islamic Republic自1979年以来,伊朗伊斯兰共和国
1133has pursued a clear and relentless goal追求一个明确而无情的目标
1134to export its revolution, extend its influence,输出革命, 扩大其影响力,
1135and dominate the region.并主宰着该地区。
1136Through a web, as we've heard,正如我们听到的 通过网络
1137of proxies, militias, and client regimes,代理人、民兵和客户政权,
1138Tehran has turned instability into a strategy.德黑兰已经把不稳定变成一种战略。
1139Take Lebanon.带上黎巴嫩
1140In the early 1980s, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard1980年代初,伊朗革命卫队
1141created Hezbollah, a militant Shia movement创建真主党,一个激进的什叶派运动
1142that now operates as a state within a state.现在作为一个州内的国家运作。
1143It controls much of Lebanon's politics,它控制着黎巴嫩的大部分政治
1144it dominates its military landscape,它支配着它的军事环境,
1145and, according to a United Nations tribunal,根据一个联合国法庭,
1146it bears responsibility for the assassination对刺杀负责
1147of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.拉菲克·哈里里总理
1148The Council on Foreign Relations describes Hezbollah外交关系委员会描述真主党
1149as the dominant military force in Lebanon,作为黎巴嫩的主要军事力量,
1150more heavily armed than most sovereign nations.比大多数主权国家更重武器。
1151Take Syria.取叙利亚.
1152When civil war erupted there,当内战爆发时,
1153Iran came to the rescue of Pasha al-Assad,伊朗来救援帕沙·阿萨德,
1154alongside Russia, in a campaign与俄罗斯一起,在一场运动中
1155that cost more than 600,000 lives,导致60多万人丧生,
1156and displaced 13 million people.并造成1 300万人流离失所。
1157Tehran wasn't fighting for peace,德黑兰不是为和平而战
1158or the peace or stability of the Syrian people,或叙利亚人民的和平或稳定,
1159but for influence, for a sheer corridor但为了影响,为了一个纯粹的走廊
1160stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.从波斯湾延伸到地中海
1161Take Yemen.拿也门。
1162There, as we heard, Iran backs the Houthi movement,正如我们听到的 伊朗支持胡塞运动
1163a rebel group, again, as has been said,叛乱集团,再次如前所述,
1164whose official slogan includes the words其官方口号包括:
1165death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon Jews.死亡到美国,死亡到以色列, 一个诅咒犹太人。
1166The Houthis now control two-thirds of Yemen's population,胡塞人现在控制着也门三分之二的人口,
1167and terrorize shipping in the Red Sea.并恐吓红海的航运
1168Between November 2023 and December 2024 alone,仅2023年11月至2024年12月,
1169they launched over 300 attacks on vessels.他们对船只发动了300多次攻击。
1170Tehran provides the targeting data,德黑兰提供目标数据,
1171the weapons, and the cheerleading,武器和啦啦队,
1172while pretending, of course, to have nothing to do with it.当然 假装和这事无关
1173No, I'm going to follow the precedent不,我要遵循这个先例
1174and keep going, but thank you.继续走,但谢谢你
1175The same pattern repeats itself in Iraq,同样的模式在伊拉克重演,
1176in Lebanon, in Syria.黎巴嫩,叙利亚。
1177Everywhere Iran sees a vacuum, an opportunity,在伊朗所看到的真空和机会
1178it fills it with chaos.它充满了混乱。
1179Every Iranian ally destabilizes its host nation.每个伊朗盟友都破坏东道国的稳定。
1180Every Iranian proxy makes a peace harder to achieve.每个伊朗代理人都难以实现和平。
1181And this is not random aggression, it is strategy.这不是随意的侵略,而是策略。
1182Instability is not a byproduct of Iran's policies.不稳定不是伊朗政策的副产品。
1183It is the policy.这是政策。
1184It is what allows Tehran to expand its reach使德黑兰能够扩大影响范围
1185while maintaining plausible deniability.同时也保持了合理的否认能力。
1186When its militias kill, Iran claims its hands are clean.当其民兵杀人时,伊朗声称手是干净的。
1187And behind all of this, behind the proxies,在这一切的背后, 在代理人的背后,
1188lies something even more dangerous, Iran's nuclear program.伊朗的核计划更危险
1189Despite international agreements, sanctions, inspections,尽管国际协议,制裁,检查,
1190Iran has continued to enrich uranium伊朗继续浓缩铀
1191to near weapons-grade levels.接近武器等级水平。
11922015年核协议,JCPOA,
1193capped or sought to cap enrichment at 3.67%.封装或试图封装浓缩度为3.67%。
1194Today, Iran enriches to 60%.今天,伊朗富足到60%。
1195The International Atomic Energy Agency warns,国际原子能机构警告,
1196this gives Iran enough material这让伊朗有足够的材料
1197for up to nine nuclear weapons最多9枚核武器
1198if it takes the final step to 90%.如果最后一步达到90%。
1199This is not the posture这不是姿态
1200of a state seeking peace and stability.一个寻求和平与稳定的国家。
1201It is the behavior of a regime这是政权的行为
1202aiming to dominate its region by intimidation and force.目的是通过恐吓和武力来支配该地区。
1203We've heard very powerfully already,我们已经听到非常强烈的,
1204and we've known for years, that Iran's neighbors,多年来我们都知道 伊朗的邻国
1205the moderate Sunni Gulf states,温和的逊尼派海湾国家,
1206see this threat for what it really is.看这个威胁到底是什么。
1207The leaked United States cables from 2010,2010年泄露的美国电缆,
1208thanks to Julian Assange,感谢朱利安·阿桑奇
1209revealed that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia,沙特阿拉伯国王阿卜杜拉
1210referring to Iran, urged Washington提及伊朗,敦促华盛顿
1211to cut off the head of the snake.以斩蛇首.
1212Publicly, Gulf leaders speak with restraint about Iran.海湾领导人公开克制地谈论伊朗.
1213Privately, as those cables revealed,私下,正如那些电缆显示,
1214they live in fear of it.他们生活在恐惧中
1215They know that a nuclear Iran他们知道伊朗是核国家
1216would upend the balance of regional power.将改善区域力量的平衡。
1217This is not a theoretical fear.这不是理论上的恐惧。
1218Iran has repeatedly tested ballistic missiles伊朗多次试射弹道导弹
1219capable of reaching Tel Aviv, Riyadh, even Athens.能够到达特拉维夫 利雅得 甚至雅典
1220And these are the same missiles这些都是同样的导弹
1221it hands to Hezbollah and the Houthis.交给真主党和胡塞人
1222Imagine it, Iran's network across Iraq, Syria,想象一下,伊朗的网络 横跨伊拉克,叙利亚,
1223Lebanon, and Yemen, backed by nuclear capability.黎巴嫩和也门以核能力为后盾。
1224That is the nightmare scenario,这就是噩梦情景
1225and it is far closer than many of us would dare to admit.这比我们许多人不敢承认的要近得多。
1226Now, some may say, yes, but Iran is weakened.现在,有些人可能说,是的,但伊朗被削弱。
1227Its proxies have suffered losses.它的代理人遭受了损失.
1228Its nuclear sites have been bombed.其核场地遭到轰炸。
1229Its leadership is embattled.它的领导层受到打击。
1230Surely, the threat is contained.当然,威胁已经得到控制。
1231Temporarily, perhaps.也许只是暂时的
1232But the question before this house is not about just today.但是,这所房子面前的问题不仅仅是今天。
1233It's about tomorrow.这是关于明天。
1234About which actor, in the medium and long term,从中长期来看,关于哪个演员,
1235poses the greater threat,构成更大的威胁,
1236the greater danger to regional stability.对区域稳定构成更大的危险。
1237Does anyone truly believe Iran will not rearm Hezbollah,有谁真的相信伊朗不会重新武装真主党,
1238that it will abandon the Houthis,即弃绝胡塞人,
1239that it will stop meddling in Iraq?停止干涉伊拉克?
1240No, thank you.不 谢谢
1241Even the most optimistic foreign office official即使是最乐观的驻外官员
1242would hesitate to write that policy submission.将犹豫不决地写出这份政策报告。
1243Iran's deep state, the Revolutionary Guards,伊朗的深层国家 革命卫队
1244the Basij, the clerical elite remains firmly in control.巴西人,文秘精英们仍然牢牢控制着
1245Its moderate reformers have been crushed.其温和的改革者被粉碎.
1246Its youth silenced.其青春寂灭.
1247Its ideology intact.它的意识形态完好无损.
1248And as the BBC's Frank Gardner observed,正如英国广播公司的弗兰克·加德纳所说,
1249when the dust settles from this latest Iran-Israel exchange,当尘埃落定的时候,
1250enough of Iran's leadership will survive有足够的伊朗领导才能生存下去
1251to race for the bomb.以争夺炸弹。
1252Now, none of this absolves Israel.现在,这些都不能免除以色列的责任。
1253Its policies in the West Bank are indefensible.它在西岸的政策是站不住脚的。
1254Its bombardment of Gaza, disproportionate.它对加沙的轰炸是过分的。
1255Its humanitarian record, dismal.它的人道主义记录令人沮丧。
1256But context matters.但环境很重要。
1257Israel fights wars it believes necessary for its survival.以色列与其认为生存所必需的战争作斗争。
1258Iran ferments wars for ideological expansion.伊朗发酵战争 意识形态扩张。
1259Yuval Noah Hariri, the author of Sapiens,萨皮恩斯的作者尤瓦尔·诺亚·哈里里,
1260himself an Israeli critic of the government, his government,他本人是以色列批评政府,他的政府,
1261put it, I think, very well.把它,我认为,非常好。
1262The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is fueled以巴冲突加剧
1263by the mutual horror of destruction.以毁灭的恐怖盟誓,
1264Each side fears the other wishes to annihilate it.双方都害怕对方想要消灭它
1265And these are not irrational fears.这些并不是非理性的恐惧。
1266Israel acts, however brutally, out of that fear.无论多么残暴,以色列出于这种恐惧采取行动。
1267Iran acts out of revolutionary purpose.伊朗出于革命目的行事。
1268And there is another crucial distinction.还有另一个关键的区别。
1269Israel's government can change.以色列政府可以改变.
1270Iran's, sadly, will not.可悲的是,伊朗不会这样做。
1271Israel is a democracy, battered, divided, but real.以色列是一个民主国家,受到打击,分裂,但却是真正的。
1272Governments fall, leaders are voted out,政府倒台,领导人被淘汰
1273citizens protest in the streets.民众在街头抗议。
1274The judiciary, though under political pressure,司法部门,尽管在政治压力下,
1275acts independently.独立行动。
1276The current coalition,目前的联盟,
1277containing extreme religious nationalists包括极端宗教民族主义者
1278and a prime minister clinging onto power to avoid jail,和一位紧紧抓住权力避免入狱的总理,
1279may well collapse.可能会崩溃
1280A new leadership could chart a different course.新的领导人可以制定不同的路线。
1281Iran, by contrast, is frozen.相反,伊朗被冻结。
1282Its theocratic regime has spent four decades其神权政权四十年
1283eliminating dissent.消除异议。
1284The Revolutionary Guards,革命卫队,
1285the intelligence and internal security services,情报和国内安全部门,
1286and the clerical establishment和文书编制
1287form a state within a state immune to public will.形成一个不受公众意愿影响的国家。
1288The judiciary is the tool of the supreme leader.司法机构是最高领导人的工具。
1289The people of Iran, educated, creative,伊朗人民,受过教育,有创意,
1290and yearning for freedom, they are not our enemies.他们渴望自由,他们不是我们的敌人。
1291But their rulers have made themselves但是他们的统治者让自己
1292the architects of permanent confrontation.永久对抗的建筑师
1293For the foreseeable future, Iran's nuclear ambitions,在可预见的未来,伊朗的核野心,
1294its orchestration of proxies wars,策划代战,
1295and its relentless, relentless interference及其无情、无情的干涉
1296across the region,在整个区域,
1297will continue to undermine every fragile piece.将继续破坏每一个脆弱的部分。
1298It is by any sober measure,以任何理智的判断,
1299the single most destabilizing actor in the Middle East.中东唯一破坏稳定的人
1300So Mr. President, let us be clear因此,主席先生,让我们明确
1301what we are voting on tonight.我们今晚的投票结果
1302Not which country has the moral upper hand.哪个国家在道德上占上风?
1303There are no innocents in this debate.这场辩论没有无辜的人。
1304Not which country has caused the most recent suffering.不是哪个国家造成最近的痛苦。
1305That ledger is too tragic to balance.这个分类账太悲惨了,不能平衡。
1306The motion asks,动议问,
1307who poses the greater threat to regional stability?谁对区域稳定构成更大的威胁?
1308Israel's wars, however terrible, are contained.以色列的战争,无论多么可怕,都得到了控制。
1309That is no consolation这不是安慰
1310if you are a former Palestinian Prime Minister如果你是前巴勒斯坦总理
1311or the Palestinian people themselves,或巴勒斯坦人民自己,
1312for whom, of course, Israel is the greatest threat.当然,对谁来说,以色列是最大的威胁。
1313But Iran's ambitions, they spread across the whole region.但伊朗的野心,它们蔓延到整个地区.
1314Israel's violence is episodic.以色列的暴力是典型的。
1315Iran's revolutionary strategy is a constant.伊朗的革命策略是一贯的.
1316Israel can change from within, Iran will not.以色列可以从内部改变,伊朗不会。
1317And so, Mr. President, ladies and gentlemen,总统先生 女士们先生们
1318I ask the House to look beyond the headlines我要求众议院超越头条新闻
1319and the heartbreak of the moment,和心碎的时刻,
1320and to take the long view,以长视之,
1321the historian's view, the strategist's view,历史学家的观点 战略家的观点
1322the realist's view,现实主义者的观点,
1323and I urge you, however reluctantly,我敦促你,无论多么不情愿,
1324to oppose the motion.以反对动议。
1325And I urge you, however reluctantly, to oppose the motion.我敦促你,无论多么不情愿,反对这个动议。
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