7-10 特朗普宣布停火后，伊朗又在考虑什么？ | BBC全
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. I'm Jonat Jalil and joining us is | 欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。 我是Jonat Jalil 加入我们就是 |
| 0:06 | Parham Ghabadi from the BBC's Persian Service. The US and Iran have been trading | 来自英国广播公司波斯语服务公司的Parham Ghabadi. 美国和伊朗一直在交易 |
| 0:12 | airstrikes this week, raising fears of a return to all-out war. So Parham, the US says this all | 本周的空袭,引起人们对全面战争复发的恐惧. 帕汉姆,美国说这一切 |
| 0:19 | started when the Iranians fired on three commercial vessels that were trying to get through the | 当伊朗人向三艘商业船只开火时,这些船只正试图驶过伊拉克。 |
| 0:24 | Strait of Hormuz. Why would Iran jeopardise the ceasefire? | 霍尔木兹海峡. 伊朗为什么要破坏停火? |
| 0:27 | That's a great question because Iran wants to exert its control over the Strait of Hormuz. | 这是一个大问题,因为伊朗想要对霍尔木兹海峡实行控制. |
| 0:34 | But the question is why they want to do that? Why are they jeopardising all of this? Because | 但问题是他们为什么要这么做? 他们为什么要危害这一切? 因为 |
| 0:39 | according from their own perspective, Iran sees all these sanctions relief and all these economic | 伊朗从自己的角度看待所有这些制裁减免以及所有这些经济制裁。 |
| 0:45 | incentives that the Americans are providing, something temporarily that can be overdone | 美国人提供的奖励, 临时的,可以过度的 |
| 0:51 | overnight because they need waivers, for example, that needs to be renewed every 60 days, | 因为他们需要豁免,例如每60天需要延期一次, |
展开字幕全文（99 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to the Global News podcast from the BBC. I'm Jonat Jalil and joining us is | 欢迎来到英国广播公司的全球新闻播客。 我是Jonat Jalil 加入我们就是 |
| 2 | Parham Ghabadi from the BBC's Persian Service. The US and Iran have been trading | 来自英国广播公司波斯语服务公司的Parham Ghabadi. 美国和伊朗一直在交易 |
| 3 | airstrikes this week, raising fears of a return to all-out war. So Parham, the US says this all | 本周的空袭,引起人们对全面战争复发的恐惧. 帕汉姆,美国说这一切 |
| 4 | started when the Iranians fired on three commercial vessels that were trying to get through the | 当伊朗人向三艘商业船只开火时,这些船只正试图驶过伊拉克。 |
| 5 | Strait of Hormuz. Why would Iran jeopardise the ceasefire? | 霍尔木兹海峡. 伊朗为什么要破坏停火? |
| 6 | That's a great question because Iran wants to exert its control over the Strait of Hormuz. | 这是一个大问题,因为伊朗想要对霍尔木兹海峡实行控制. |
| 7 | But the question is why they want to do that? Why are they jeopardising all of this? Because | 但问题是他们为什么要这么做? 他们为什么要危害这一切? 因为 |
| 8 | according from their own perspective, Iran sees all these sanctions relief and all these economic | 伊朗从自己的角度看待所有这些制裁减免以及所有这些经济制裁。 |
| 9 | incentives that the Americans are providing, something temporarily that can be overdone | 美国人提供的奖励, 临时的,可以过度的 |
| 10 | overnight because they need waivers, for example, that needs to be renewed every 60 days, | 因为他们需要豁免,例如每60天需要延期一次, |
| 11 | just a few days ago after Iran attacked the ships, they were cancelled. So Iran sees that | 就在伊朗袭击这些船只的几天前,这些船只被取消。 所以伊朗认为 |
| 12 | as a temporary thing. However, they see the Strait of Hormuz as an infinite source of income | 作为一个暂时的事情。 然而,他们认为霍尔木兹海峡是无限的收入来源。 |
| 13 | that can go on forever and it does not need the United States' approval or any other country for | 它不需要美国或任何其他国家批准 |
| 14 | that matter. Apart from that, Iran has been under sanctions for decades. So if, for example, | 这很重要。 除此之外,伊朗几十年来一直受到制裁。 所以,比如说, |
| 15 | tomorrow France puts sanctions or the EU puts sanctions on Iran, they can say okay from now | 明天法国实行制裁 或者欧盟对伊朗实行制裁 他们可以这么说 |
| 16 | we're not going to allow your ships to go through the Strait of Hormuz. So to change the equation | 我们不允许你们的船只穿过霍尔木兹海峡 所以改变方程式 |
| 17 | and to change their calculations. And can we just clarify because there are several routes | 并改变他们的计算。 我们能否澄清一下 因为有几条路线 |
| 18 | through the Strait of Hormuz. Could you just elaborate on that for us? Yeah, so we've got, | 穿过霍尔木兹海峡. 你能为我们详细说明一下吗? 是的,所以我们得到了, |
| 19 | as you mentioned, there are three routes. One that goes through the Iranian water and one | 正如你提到的,有三条路线。 一个穿过伊朗水,一个 |
| 20 | right now goes through the Omani water and one that used to be in between but now is full of mine. | 现在通过阿曼水 和一个曾经在中间 但现在充满了我的水。 |
| 21 | Iran is insisting that all the ships have to go through the Iranian waterway and they have | 伊朗坚持要求所有船只必须经过伊朗水道,而且它们已经 |
| 22 | established a body, the Strait Authority, that they need to communicate and coordinate with the | 设立了一个机构,即海峡管理局,它们需要与 |
| 23 | Iranians. And when they started opening up the other route from the Omani water, the Iranian | 伊朗人。 当他们开始打开另一条 从阿曼河水,伊朗人 |
| 24 | Revolutionary Guard started targeting those ships because they want to have the entire control. | 革命卫队开始瞄准这些舰只,因为他们想要拥有全部控制权. |
| 25 | Because they've promised for 60 days they're not going to charge any money from the ships | 因为他们已经承诺了60天 他们不会向船只收取任何钱 |
| 26 | but this memorandum of understanding is a bit vague. It's not clear what is going to happen | 但这份谅解备忘录有些含糊不清。 现在还不清楚会发生什么 |
| 27 | after the 60 days. What Iranian authorities are saying, for example Iranian ambassador to China, | 过六十日. 伊朗当局所说的话,例如伊朗驻中国大使, |
| 28 | said that definitely Iran after the 60 days is over is going to take some transit fees. | 伊朗在60天之后肯定会收取一些过境费。 |
| 29 | They're insisting that it's not tolls, it's a fee. But regardless of the name, it's some money that | 他们坚持不是收费,而是收费. 但不管名字,都是些钱 |
| 30 | ships have to pay to go through the Strait of Hormuz and it shows that Iran is really adamant | 舰只必须付钱才能穿越霍尔木兹海峡 这表明伊朗非常坚定 |
| 31 | to keep that Strait of Hormuz as a leverage against the United States and the rest of the | 把霍尔木兹海峡作为打击美国和其余 |
| 32 | Western world. Does Iran risk overplaying its hand by trying to force ships to go through that route | 西方世间. 伊朗是否冒着过度操控的风险,试图强迫船只通过这条航线? |
| 33 | closest to its shore? That's a very important question because many Iranian analysts are | 离海岸最近吗? 这是一个非常重要的问题,因为许多伊朗分析家 |
| 34 | actually saying that. They're saying that Iran is overplaying its card and it's not only the | 其实是这么说的。 他们说伊朗玩得过头了 不仅仅是 |
| 35 | 伊朗分析家这么说 伊朗首席谈判代表Mohammad Barger Alibaf也表示, | |
| 36 | mentioned that in an interview a few days ago because he's also facing hardliners in the country | 在几天前的一次采访中, 因为他也在国内面临强硬派 |
| 37 | who say close the Strait of Hormuz, go to a war with the United States. He was telling them, listen, | 谁说关闭霍尔木兹海峡, 去与美国开战。 他告诉他们,听着, |
| 38 | if we overplay our card then in the long term it's going to work against us because if the ships | 如果我们玩过头牌 那么从长远来看 对我们不利 因为如果飞船 |
| 39 | stop going through the Strait of Hormuz these countries are going to find other routes to | 这些国家将寻找其他途径 |
| 40 | transfer oil and in the long run that's not going to be in our favor, vice versa. It's going to | 从长远来看,这不利于我们,反之亦然。 它会 |
| 41 | damage us and it's going to harm the country. So Iranian authorities understand that but why | 伤害我们,它会伤害国家。 因此,伊朗当局理解这一点,但为什么 |
| 42 | they're still doing that there might be a friction in Iranian authorities, there might be different | 伊朗当局可能发生摩擦, |
| 43 | factions who want different things. We don't know that yet but we know that at least Iranian chief | 他们想要不同的东西。 我们还不知道 但我们知道至少伊朗酋长 |
| 44 | negotiator is aware of that but they're acting differently. Because Iran's leaders are very keen | 谈判者知道这一点,但他们的行为不同。 因为伊朗领导人非常热心 |
| 45 | to put on a show of unity and we've seen them doing that with this week-long funeral for the | 我们看见他们用这周的葬礼来展示团结 |
| 46 | leader Ayatollah Khamenei during which images were broadcast calling for the death of President | 阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊领导人播放了呼吁总统死亡的画面 |
| 47 | Trump. That's true, however that's far from the reality. What happens is that in the days leading | 特朗普报. 没错,但是这与现实相距甚远. 发生的事情是,在前几天 |
| 48 | to the funeral the rift between the Iranian different factions of Iran are the hardliners | 在葬礼上,伊朗不同派别之间的分歧是强硬派 |
| 49 | and less hardliners like they are the moderates who want to negotiate at least. Between these two | 像他们这样的强硬派至少是想要谈判的温和派。 这两个人之间 |
| 50 | factions the rift was widening really big so they were constantly attacking one another but at the | 裂痕正在扩大 所以他们不断互相攻击 |
| 51 | same time they are putting up this show as you mentioned and from a person who is on the stage | 同时,他们正举办这个节目,就像你提到的, 从一个在舞台上的人 |
| 52 | calls for President Trump's assassination and from yesterday's speech at NATO what Donald Trump was | 以及昨天在北约的演讲中, |
| 53 | saying it appears that he has heard these threats and he's taking them seriously. So it's really | 说他好像听到了这些威胁 他正认真对待这些威胁 所以这是真的 |
| 54 | unwise for the Iranians to do something like that because it is jeopardizing the future of 91 million | 伊朗人这样做是不明智的,因为它正在危及9 100万的未来。 |
| 55 | people and the country as well. And you could hear that in the words he used he called the Iranian | 人民和国家也是如此。 你可以听到他所说的伊朗人 |
| 56 | leaders scum. It was very emotional wasn't it? Just a few weeks after that he called them really | 领导渣滓。 这很感动 不是吗? 就在几周后,他叫他们真的 |
| 57 | rational people that he can really negotiate with. So we've got that with President Trump as well so | 理性的人,他可以真正谈判。 川普总统也是这样 |
| 58 | I wouldn't be really surprised to say that he would be you know honored to meet them tomorrow | 我并不感到惊讶,说他明天会见到他们 |
| 59 | morning because he has changed his position several times many times in the past few weeks | 因为过去几周他多次改变立场 |
| 60 | and months but the Iranians have been actually persistent with their whether it's right or wrong | 几个月后,伊朗人一直坚持到底 是对是错 |
| 61 | that's a different story but they've been persistent with what they want. They want the | 那是另一个故事 但他们一直坚持他们想要的 他们想要 |
| 62 | straight of hormones to have to control over that. I think that maybe the nuclear program is up for | 荷尔蒙的直线 需要控制。 我认为,也许 核方案是为 |
| 63 | negotiation because now they've learned that straight of hormones is a much better leverage | 谈判,因为现在他们知道 直接的荷尔蒙是更好的杠杆 |
| 64 | for them than the nuclear program but the rhetoric what they say is that we want to have the right | 对他们来说,比核子计划还要好,但他们所说的是我们希望有权利 |
| 65 | for nuclear enrichment. Well are they willing to suspend that right for 20 years for some economic | 用于核浓缩。 那么,他们愿意中止 20年的权利 一些经济 |
| 66 | incentives? Those are those are the things that are going to be decided in the negotiations later | 奖励? 这些是以后谈判中将要决定的 |
| 67 | on if they take place. President Trump is now saying that the ceasefire is over is it? Well | 如果它们发生。 特朗普总统现在说停火已经结束了吗? 这个嘛 |
| 68 | it's really difficult to say it's over. It's not completely. So what we're seeing is not a war like | 很难说完 亦非全无. 所以我们看到的不是战争 |
| 69 | that 40 day 39 days war. It's not like they're bombing throughout the country. So for example | 40天39天的战争。 他们不是在轰炸全国 举个例子 |
| 70 | Tehran for that matter has not been targeted. Karaj which is a metropolitan city next to Tehran | 德黑兰在这个问题上没有成为目标。 卡拉杰是德黑兰附近的一个都市 |
| 71 | is not targeted. The straight of hormones is not completely closed yet although I think very few | 没有目标。 荷尔蒙的直线还没有完全关闭 虽然我认为很少 |
| 72 | ships or if any are still going through it but the naval blockade is not back on again. So we're not | 但海军封锁不再恢复了 所以我们不是 |
| 73 | back into the previous phase yet. It seems to me it appears that it's a kind of limited military | 回到前一阶段 在我看来,这似乎是一种有限的军事 |
| 74 | operations of the two countries tit for tat operations against another. They want to have a | 两国对另一国的打击行动 他们想要一个 |
| 75 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}有节制的对抗 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}以表达他们的观点 是的,它看起来非常微妙 | |
| 76 | from what you're saying it doesn't look like there's going to be a return to all out war which is | 从你说的看来 战争不会卷土重来 |
| 77 | what a lot of people fear. Exactly so when you talk to Iranians right now the mood in the country has | 很多人都担心什么 当你和伊朗人交谈的时候 这个国家的情绪 |
| 78 | changed a lot before and after the war. Let's not forget that the funeral of the person who is | 战争前后变化很大. 我们不要忘记 死者的葬礼 |
| 79 | actually getting buried he was killed two months after a brutal crackdown in Iran. | 在伊朗遭到残酷镇压两个月后, |
| 80 | So the rift in the society is not only between heartliners and the moderates but also | 所以社会上的裂痕 不仅在心胸派和温和派之间 |
| 81 | between the opponents of the regime and the proponents of the regime. So this show that | 政权的反对者和政权的支持者之间。 所以这个显示 |
| 82 | they've put up to send a signal and to send this message that all Iranians are united is really far | 他们一直想发出一个信号 并发出一个信息 所有伊朗人都团结在一起 |
| 83 | from the reality. There are many Iranians who do not like this regime who went on the street who | 从现实。 许多伊朗人不喜欢这个政权, |
| 84 | took to the streets and they were killed with a bullet. The difference is that the people who | 他们被子弹打死。 区别在于那些 |
| 85 | attend the funeral they're given food, transportation, place to stay. The people who go out on the street | 参加给他们的葬礼 食物、交通、住的地方 街上的人 都出来 |
| 86 | to protest they're faced with bullets, threat of execution and arrests. So in a way that might | 他们面临枪弹、处决和逮捕的威胁 所以也许 |
| 87 | motivate the Iranian leadership to do some kind of deal to try to restore the economy which has been | 促使伊朗领导人作出某种交易,试图恢复过去的经济。 |
| 88 | really in a dire strait for a long time now. It has been in a dire strait but and that's what again | 长期处于困境 它一直处于一个可怕的困境, 但这是再次 |
| 89 | Iranian chief negotiator was telling heartliners that listen you are blaming me for | 伊朗首席谈判员告诉心腹者 你责怪我 |
| 90 | why I'm negotiating with the Americans but the naval blanket was hurting the Iranian economy | 为什么我要和美国人谈判 但海军的毯子伤害了伊朗的经济 |
| 91 | so bad we need to export our oil. But regardless of that the Iranian revolutionary guards it's so | 如此糟糕,我们需要输出我们的石油。 但无论伊朗革命卫队如何 |
| 92 | ideological that they are willing to take risk and their risk-taking appetite has developed and has | 他们愿意承担风险的意识形态及其承担风险的胃口已经发展起来,而且已经 |
| 93 | grown tremendously. In the past Iran used to threat the United States of attacking its bases | 长得非常大 过去伊朗曾威胁美国攻击其基地 |
| 94 | in the region but now we see that they can do it easily. They're doing it like two days in a row | 但是现在我们看到他们可以轻松地做到这一点。 他们一连两天都这样 |
| 95 | right now. Today sirens went off in Jordan. Jordan was not one of the countries that was attacked | 现在 今天警笛在约旦响起 约旦不是被袭击的国家之一 |
| 96 | repeatedly. Yes Bahrain was, UAE was, Kuwait was but not Jordan. So we see that they're shooting | 重复进行。 是的,巴林是,阿联酋是,科威特不是约旦。 所以我们看到他们在开枪 |
| 97 | missiles at so many different countries in the region. Thanks very much Paham. That was Paham | 导弹袭击了该地区许多不同国家。 非常感谢帕汉姆。 那是帕汉姆 |
| 98 | Gabbadi from the BBC's Persian service and if you'd like to see more of the global news podcast | Gabbadi来自英国广播公司的波斯语节目, |
| 99 | please click on the link below. | 请点击以下链接。 |
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