谁在左右伊朗的命运？耶鲁史学名家+《伊朗五百年》作者权威解读
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | Welcome everybody. | 欢迎大家 |
| 0:05 | My name is Devin Lau. | 我叫刘德文 |
| 0:07 | I am associate director for Yale Center | 我是耶鲁中心副主任 |
| 0:08 | Beijing and we host a number of programs throughout the year both in person in | 北京和我们全年都亲自主持一些节目 |
| 0:15 | Beijing as well as online via zoom as well as live stream and we're very | 北京和在线通过放大 和直播流,我们非常 |
| 0:20 | excited to continue to bring the most relevant topics and shed some light on | 激动地继续提出最相关的主题,并阐明 |
| 0:26 | current events history as well as politics and science and economics and | 历史、政治、科学和经济 |
| 0:35 | all of these topics and I think today's topic will be a way to sort of bring a | 所有这些话题 我认为今天的话题 将是一种带来一种 |
| 0:39 | lot of those things together. | 很多那些东西在一起。 |
| 0:41 | Our speaker today is Abbas Aminat who is the | 我们今天的发言者是阿巴斯·阿米纳特。 |
展开字幕全文（600 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome everybody. | 欢迎大家 |
| 2 | My name is Devin Lau. | 我叫刘德文 |
| 3 | I am associate director for Yale Center | 我是耶鲁中心副主任 |
| 4 | Beijing and we host a number of programs throughout the year both in person in | 北京和我们全年都亲自主持一些节目 |
| 5 | Beijing as well as online via zoom as well as live stream and we're very | 北京和在线通过放大 和直播流,我们非常 |
| 6 | excited to continue to bring the most relevant topics and shed some light on | 激动地继续提出最相关的主题,并阐明 |
| 7 | current events history as well as politics and science and economics and | 历史、政治、科学和经济 |
| 8 | all of these topics and I think today's topic will be a way to sort of bring a | 所有这些话题 我认为今天的话题 将是一种带来一种 |
| 9 | lot of those things together. | 很多那些东西在一起。 |
| 10 | Our speaker today is Abbas Aminat who is the | 我们今天的发言者是阿巴斯·阿米纳特。 |
| 11 | William Graham Sumner Professor Emeritus of History at Yale. | 威廉·格雷厄姆·苏姆纳在耶鲁的历史荣誉教授. |
| 12 | He received his | 他得到了他的 |
| 13 | bachelor's from Tehran University and his doctor of philosophy from the School | 德黑兰大学学士和学校哲学博士 |
| 14 | of Oriental Studies at the University of Oxford. | 牛津大学东方研究系。 |
| 15 | Shortly after which he began | 不久,他开始了 |
| 16 | teaching at Yale starting in 1983 and he taught at Yale until 2021. | 从1983年开始在耶鲁大学任教,他到2021年在耶鲁大学任教. |
| 17 | He's written | 他写了 |
| 18 | about the history of Iran both early modern and modern and earlier as well as | 关于伊朗早期现代和早期历史以及 |
| 19 | just generally the Middle East, the Muslim world, the Persianite world and of | 中东、穆斯林世界、波斯人世界 |
| 20 | course his wonderful giant book Iran a Modern History. | 他的巨著《伊朗现代历史》 |
| 21 | So if you haven't seen | 所以,如果你还没有看到 |
| 22 | that yet it's also available in Chinese actually. | 但实际上也有中文版 |
| 23 | It's translated into Chinese as | 中文译为: |
| 24 | well as into a few other languages and it's going to be translated into | 并翻译成其他几种语言 |
| 25 | Japanese soon as well. | 日语也快. |
| 26 | So if you're interested in today's topic that's also | 如果你对今天的话题感兴趣 那也是 |
| 27 | another great resource to look at. | 另一种伟大的资源来看。 |
| 28 | Again Iran a Modern History is available in | 伊朗的现代历史也可见于此。 |
| 29 | Chinese and today we're very excited to have him here to share with us a little | 中国人和今天我们非常兴奋 他在这里和我们分享一点 |
| 30 | bit. | 位数。 |
| 31 | Of course Iran is very much in the current events but as Professor | 当然,伊朗对当前事件非常关心,但作为教授 |
| 32 | Aminat and I were just discussing there's always actually been a long history of the | 阿米纳特和我刚刚讨论过 一直以来 |
| 33 | civilizations between Iran and China and so very much eager to hear what he has | 伊朗和中国之间的文明,非常渴望听到他有什么 |
| 34 | to share and so we're going to let him take the floor after which we'll have | 所以我们要让他发言 之后我们将有 |
| 35 | a little bit of time for some questions and answers as well. | 还有一点时间来问答 |
| 36 | And so without | 所以没有 |
| 37 | further ado I am Professor Aminat. | 我是阿米纳特教授 |
| 38 | Yes Dr. Lu thank you very much for inviting me | 是,鲁医生,谢谢你邀请我 |
| 39 | and this is a quite a remarkable occasion since most of the time my | 自从我大部分时间... |
| 40 | invitations are for gatherings or Zoom meetings either in the United States or | 邀请函是在美国举行集会或扩大会议,或 |
| 41 | in the Western Hemisphere. | 在西半球。 |
| 42 | So having a chance to talk to an audience on the | 所以有机会和观众谈谈 |
| 43 | other side of the globe which as you pointed out I wish I would have had a | 地球的另一边,正如你所指出 我希望我会有一个 |
| 44 | chance to talk more about the civilization of historical ties between | 有机会多谈一下历史纽带的文明 |
| 45 | Iran and China that goes back really to at least 5th century BC or there about | 追溯到公元前5世纪的伊朗和中国 |
| 46 | if not earlier and much of the common threads that we can find in the history | 如果不是更早 和大部分共同线索 我们可以找到在历史上 |
| 47 | of both China and Iran even in modern times not necessarily related to each | 即使在现代,中国和伊朗 也不一定与每一个都相关 |
| 48 | other but very parallel resemblances that you can find in the process of | 其他但非常平行的相似性,你可以在 |
| 49 | modernization. | 现代化。 |
| 50 | How these countries from try to change from the traditional | 这些国家如何从传统的 |
| 51 | into contemporary settings how far they were successful what revolutions they | 他们成功的程度如何? |
| 52 | experienced as a matter of fact I think China and Iran are among very few | 我认为中国和伊朗是极少数 |
| 53 | countries in the world that in the course of the 20th century experienced | 在20世纪经历的世界上 |
| 54 | two revolutions that's the constitutional revolution around the | 两次革命,这就是宪法革命 |
| 55 | beginning of the century I think China was 1812 1912 if I'm not wrong | 这个世纪初,我想中国是1812 1912年 如果我没说错的话 |
| 56 | Iran was 1906 to 1911 or later really and then of course the 47 revolution in | 伊朗从1906年到1911年 或后来真的,当然,47年的革命 |
| 57 | mainland China and the Islamic revolution of 1979 in Iran but these | 中国大陆和1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命 |
| 58 | are as a matter of fact not the most pleasant side of the encounter between | 事实上,这不是我们之间最愉快的一面 |
| 59 | The most important as you might know is the Silk Roads or these days you have to | 你可能知道最重要的 丝绸之路 或者现在你必须 |
| 60 | say Silk Roads since there is not one road but the connections between the two | 说丝绸之路,因为没有一条道路,只有两条道路之间的联系 |
| 61 | commercially financially I wouldn't say financially commercially diplomatically | 在商业上,在商业上,我不说在商业上 |
| 62 | and civilization in terms of the number of commodities that were exchanged | 交换的商品数量 |
| 63 | between China and Iran is quite remarkable when you look into it detail | 仔细研究一下,中国和伊朗之间 相当了不起 |
| 64 | you would see that the that there is so much to be to be said that being said I | 你会看到 有很多事情要说 |
| 65 | think for better or for worse our focus today is going to be on contemporary | 不论好坏 我们今天的焦点都将放在当代 |
| 66 | Iran not even about my book which more or less ends around 2010 or thereabouts | 伊朗甚至不说我的书 多少结束于2010年左右 |
| 67 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我想写一本一千页的书 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我不需要再继续 | |
| 68 | today's contemporary Iran is a quite a remarkable course of events between I | 今天的伊朗是一件相当了不起的事, |
| 69 | would say June of 2025 and the and today's a year later and this it | 说2025年6月 一年之后的今天 |
| 70 | displays an extraordinary complexity in this situation and I'm going to actually | 展现出非常复杂的情况 而我实际上 |
| 71 | go through some of the most significant aspects of this very complex situation | 经历了这个非常复杂局势的一些最重要的方面 |
| 72 | for one thing since June of last year when the Israelis and then eventually the | 自从去年六月 以色列人最后 |
| 73 | Americans get engaged in invading Iran there's no other terms for it no matter | 美国人入侵伊朗 没有任何其他条件 |
| 74 | how much the media or the politicians in this country try to modify that and use | 这个国家的媒体或政治人物 如何试图修改和使用 |
| 75 | other terms this is nothing short of an invasion and in despite this two rounds | 换句话说,这不是入侵 尽管这两轮 |
| 76 | of very severe bombardment of Iran and the loss of its leadership irrespective | 严重轰炸伊朗及其领导人的丧失,不论 |
| 77 | of their quality that regime is stood in their place and even if anything has | 这种制度在他们自己的位置上存在,即使任何东西都存在。 |
| 78 | got gotten stronger then even it was about a year ago which says something | 变强了,就连一年前都说了些什么 |
| 79 | about the failure of the very idea that by invading Iran Islamic Republic is | 关于侵略伊朗伊斯兰共和国的这一想法的失败 |
| 80 | going to collapse that was chief fundamental motivation behind Israelis | 将崩溃,这是以色列人背后的主要根本动机 |
| 81 | who initiated the whole thing and the United States that somewhat foolishly | 发动了整件事 以及美国 有点愚蠢 |
| 82 | that of course and up to today to everybody's surprise not only the | 当然,直到今天 每个人的惊喜 不仅仅是 |
| 83 | Americans not only the Israelis not only the Iranian hopeful but rather naive | 美国人不光是以色列人 不仅有伊朗的希望 而且天真 |
| 84 | opposition outside Iran and inside Iran that they were hoping that foreign | 伊朗境外和伊朗国内的反对派认为,他们希望外国、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊朗、伊 |
| 85 | invasion would bring the regime down and despite the loss of quite a remarkable | 入侵会让政权垮台 尽管失去了一个了不起的 |
| 86 | number of political and military leaders who were eliminated in the process | 在这一过程中被淘汰的政治和军事领导人人数 |
| 87 | purposefully by the Israelis and by the Americans mostly by Israelis including | 以色列人和美国人的故意行为 |
| 88 | how many himself despite all the crimes that they have committed over the | 尽管他们犯下了种种罪行, |
| 89 | their loss did not bring it did not equate the loss of the Islamic Republic | 他们的损失并不等于伊朗伊斯兰共和国的损失。 |
| 90 | the collapse of the Islamic Republic so the question is why and how this had | 因此,问题在于为什么和为什么 |
| 91 | happened one fact is that the surprise is coming from the fact that there is | 其中一个事实是 惊喜来自一个事实: |
| 92 | this misperception that military option and particularly the aerial bombardment | 特别是空中轰炸 |
| 93 | of a country and of all the countries a country like Iran which has stood in its | 一个国家和所有像伊朗这样的国家 |
| 94 | place like China for instance for thousands of years it's on the map it's | 以中国为例,几千年来,地图上都是 |
| 95 | always been on the map you cannot simply and the country of 90 odd million people | 永远在地图上 你无法简单地 和9000万人的国家 |
| 96 | and vast probably the 17th in its land mass and its population in the world you | 很可能是土地面积的第17个 以及世界上的人口 |
| 97 | cannot just simply obliterated from the from from the map or change its regime | 不能简单地从地图上抹去或改变其制度 |
| 98 | and of all by a country like Israel that is very legitimacy in many respects is | 像以色列这样的国家在很多方面非常合法的国家 |
| 99 | questionable and above all in its treatment of its own people Palestinian | 在对待巴勒斯坦人民方面尤其值得怀疑。 |
| 100 | people so I think the entire premises that you would be able to bring your | 所以,我认为整个前提 你可以带来你的 |
| 101 | regime down to everybody's great surprise proved to be wrong it became | 被证明是错的 |
| 102 | more evident than ever that's then the Netanyahu regime in Israel basically | 现在以色列内塔尼亚胡政权已经比以往更明显了 |
| 103 | the Americans a phony image that they're going to change the situation in Iran | 美国人的假象 他们将会改变伊朗的局势 |
| 104 | and the Middle East of course they are what I was an addict to violence as it | 当然在中东 他们就是我对暴力的瘾君子 |
| 105 | became evident in the Gaza case with close to hundred thousand people being | 加沙事件明显可见,近10万人 |
| 106 | killed by the Israelis as it's happening today in front of our eyes every day in | 被以色列人杀害,因为今天每天都在我们眼前发生 |
| 107 | southern Lebanon which has been turned into complete ruins and eventually I | 被彻底摧毁的黎巴嫩南部 |
| 108 | think the Israeli plan is to annex it as they did in the case of Israel as they | 认为以色列的计划是像他们在以色列问题上所做的那样兼并它 |
| 109 | did in the West Bank and as such I think we are facing a very kind of a severe | 我认为我们正面临一种严重的 |
| 110 | circumstances on the other hand there is an equally depressing situation and that | 另一方面,情况同样令人沮丧, |
| 111 | is that the Islamic Republic particularly since December of 2025 and | 特别是自2025年12月以来和 |
| 112 | the January particularly in January has committed enormous crimes domestically | 1月份,特别是1月份,在国内犯下了巨大的罪行。 |
| 113 | by basically gunning down at least at least 10,000 of the street protesters | 至少一万名街头抗议者, |
| 114 | most of them from the middle class some of my friends who were either badly | 多数是中产阶级的 我的一些朋友不是坏的 |
| 115 | injured or died killed in the course of the demonstration at least 10,000 were | 在示威过程中受伤或死亡的至少10,000人 |
| 116 | gunned down by the Islamic Republic particularly by the Revolutionary Guards in the course of two | 被伊朗伊斯兰共和国枪决,特别是革命卫队在两起事件中 |
| 117 | days or two and a half days of suppressing or basically coup that's out of fear that the | 几天或两天半的 镇压或基本上政变 是出于害怕 |
| 118 | that the protesters are going to get the upper hand to gain the upper hand so it's | 抗议者将获得优势, |
| 119 | right there and there in an act of brutality that even within the 47 years of the Islamic | 在伊斯兰47年的暴行中 |
| 120 | Republic was unheard of the scale of it was something that is not comparable to the movement | 共和国从未听说过它的规模 与运动是无法比拟的 |
| 121 | of the women freedom in three years ago or to 2009 Green Movement none of them in terms of the | 三年前或2009年的绿色运动 |
| 122 | casualties were as large as what we noticed in the January of 2026 so that complicates even the | 与2026年1月我们注意到的一样 伤亡人数也很大 这样就更复杂了 |
| 123 | situation further that is you have a regime that domestically is quite capable and willing to | 更进一步地说,你有一个制度 国内相当有能力和愿意 |
| 124 | gun down to suppress to massacre its own population its own very precious population namely mostly | 为了镇压屠杀本国人民,他们非常珍贵,主要是 |
| 125 | young well-educated Iranians male and female who basically are fighting for their own civil | 年轻受过良好教育的伊朗男女 基本上为自己的公民而战 |
| 126 | rights for the greater freedom in the country and for the removal of the social religious | 争取国家更大自由和消除社会宗教 |
| 127 | restrictions that the regime has placed on the Iranians for the past 47 years and that resulted | 朝鲜政权过去47年对伊朗人施加的限制, |
| 128 | in as I just pointed out in a number of protest movements ever since the start of the Revolution | 正如我刚刚在革命开始以来的一些抗议运动中指出的 |
| 129 | in 1979 but more intensively from 19 from 2009 onwards there's there's at least four possibly | 1979年,但从2009年以后的19年 更密集的是 至少有四个可能 |
| 130 | five popular uprisings that were suppressed and the last one more severely than the others okay | 5次民众起义被镇压 最后一次比其他起义更严重 |
| 131 | so what does that tell us that tell us that the regime it stands in a position particularly the | 因此,这告诉我们,它所处的政权的地位,特别是 |
| 132 | when I talk about the regime of course we are not talking about the unanimous body but we are | 当我谈论政权的时候,我们当然不是在谈论一致的机构,但我们是 |
| 133 | talking about some pockets here and there with different kind of interests that evolutionary | 谈论一些口袋 这里和那里 有不同的 兴趣类型进化 |
| 134 | guards are of course different from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs both of them are different | 守卫当然和外交部不一样 两者都不一样 |
| 135 | from probably the Iranian Parliament or whatever is left of the Iranian Parliament and other | 可能来自伊朗议会或伊朗议会所留下的一切 |
| 136 | institutions that either are these days fairly quiet keep a low profile or they probably no | 要么现在很安静 要么保持低调 |
| 137 | longer are as active as they used to be these are the institutions that the Islamic Republic | 更像以前一样活跃的是伊朗伊斯兰共和国的体制 |
| 138 | has created over the past half a century 47 years what also is visible that's the third factor is | 在过去的半个世纪里,47年中 第三个因素就是 |
| 139 | that as I just hinted at a moment ago there is this body of opposition to the Islamic Republic | 正如我刚才所暗示的 有个反对伊斯兰共和国的机构 |
| 140 | particularly outside Iran in Europe in the United States in Canada in Australia wherever there is | 特别是欧洲的伊朗以外 美国的加拿大的澳大利亚 |
| 141 | concentration of Iranians who emigrated to the west over the past course of 30 years or more that | 过去30年或30年以上移居西方的伊朗人集中在 |
| 142 | some of them or at least a substantial body of it are royalists these are the people who would | 其中一些人或至少相当一部分是保皇党人,这些人会 |
| 143 | like to see the return of the of Reza Pahlavi the son of the last Shah who has a claim over the | 喜欢看到Reza Pahlavi的归来 他的儿子是上一个沙阿 谁拥有的权利, |
| 144 | throne the Pahlavi throne but even he recognizes the fact that these chances are very very slim | 帕赫拉维的王位 连他都承认 机会非常渺茫 |
| 145 | but he would present himself as a kind of a mediator for return to democracy this is at | 但他会把自己表现成一种 恢复民主的调停者 |
| 146 | least part of the rhetoric in reality whatever course of action he had taken over the past few | 无论他在过去少有的行动 |
| 147 | years seemed to me totally misplaced he had become very close both to the Israelis and to | 对我而言,这几年似乎完全不合时宜,他既与以色列人关系密切,也与以色列人关系密切。 |
| 148 | the Americans the two forces that invaded Iran and Iranians don't take that very lightly so | 入侵伊朗和伊朗的两支部队 并不轻易接受 |
| 149 | that was a huge mistake the other mistake of his among many is that he failed to create a kind of | 这是一个巨大的错误 他在许多错误中的另一个错误是 他没有创造出一种 |
| 150 | a coalition of oppositional forces so he's pretty much relying on a bunch of riffraffs I have no | 一个反对势力的联盟 所以他几乎 依赖于一堆裂缝 我没有 |
| 151 | very basic or none at all political insight and understanding so they follow him kind of foolishly | 非常基本 或根本没有政治见解和理解 所以他们跟随他有点愚蠢 |
| 152 | then they think that if the Islamic Republic collapses which by itself is a huge question | 他们认为,如果伊斯兰共和国崩溃,那本身就是一个大问题。 |
| 153 | there is going to be next day there's going to be a paradise there's a Western model of democracy | 第二天会有天堂 有西方民主模式 |
| 154 | whatever is the worth of it is going to prevail over Iran and Iran is going to change course there | 不管它的价值会战胜伊朗 并且伊朗会在那里改变方向 |
| 155 | and then that seemed to have also come to a deadlock or if not failure complete failure that image | 这似乎也陷入了僵局 或者如果不是失败的话 完全失败了 |
| 156 | that vision namely that because of the past ever since the of June of last year there were all | 这一愿景是,由于自去年6月以来的过去,出现了所有 |
| 157 | these high hopes that tomorrow this regime is going to collapse which it didn't then the the | 希望明天这个政权会垮台 而不是当时的政权 |
| 158 | inside Iran the street protest it was not really an uprising it was any street protest the street | 伊朗国内的街头抗议活动并非一场起义, |
| 159 | protest was suppressed and the opposition abroad the royalists mostly claimed that this is the | 抗议被镇压 国外反对派 保皇党人大多声称这是 |
| 160 | prelude to the forthcoming revolution against Islamic Republic and the collapse of this that | 即将到来的反对伊斯兰共和国革命的序幕 以及这场革命的崩溃 |
| 161 | didn't happen and then of course the war of the past three months since April of this year the | 并没有发生,当然,过去三个月的战争 从今年4月以来, |
| 162 | invasion by the United States and Israel which resulted in the execution a killing of Besseh | 美国和以色列的入侵导致Besseh被处决 |
| 163 | again and quite a large number of military and some political supporters or politicians | 以及很多军方和一些政治支持者或政客 |
| 164 | or leading people in the Islamic Republic despite that the regime is in its place if anything and | 或领导着伊斯兰共和国的人民,尽管该政权处于其地位,如果有的话。 |
| 165 | I would like to underscore that point these revolutionary guards and the most radical | 我想强调这一点 这些革命卫队和最激进的 |
| 166 | elements within the Iranian regime now have taken the upper hand particularly the successful | 伊朗政权内部的分子现在已经占上风,特别是成功的 |
| 167 | control over over the Strait of Hormuz which was part of the Islamic Republic's strategy for | 胡尔穆兹海峡的控制权是伊朗伊斯兰共和国的 |
| 168 | quite a long time if you read some of their literature you would see that they had for a | 相当长一段时间,如果你读 他们的一些文献 你会看到,他们有一个 |
| 169 | very long time insisted on the fact that this is going to be a core issue in terms of any | 长期以来,人们一直坚持认为,就任何问题而言,这将是一个核心问题。 |
| 170 | international confrontation with the western world with the United States and remember they | 与西方世界的国际对抗 并记住他们 |
| 171 | have had this is part of their ideological position ever since the revolution of 1979 | 自1979年革命以来,这是他们思想立场的一部分。 |
| 172 | death to America America as the great satan Israel as the great collaborator that they | 美国作为伟大的恶魔 以色列作为伟大的合作者 |
| 173 | never actually use the term Israel they always say occupied Zionists occupying Zionists so | 他们总是说占领着犹太复国主义者的占领者 |
| 174 | whatever it is for them it is in a certain respect the fulfillment of the prophecies | 对他们而言,无论什么,都是在某种意义上实现预言的。 |
| 175 | that's what they had said for 47 years that is that the United States is a great satan now | 他们47年来都这么说 美国现在是伟大的恶魔了 |
| 176 | they can point at the the invasion and say here it is that's what we were telling you | 他们可以指向入侵 并说这就是我们告诉你的 |
| 177 | and of course they learned a great deal over the 47 years particularly from the left | 当然,他们学到了很多 在47年里,尤其是从左边 |
| 178 | they learned a great deal about how to behave with the western | 他们学到了很多如何对待西方人 |
| 179 | originated western I'm saying originated anti-western rhetoric that most of it came from the left | 是从西方来的,我是说, 是从反西方的言论, 大部分来自左边 |
| 180 | and was adopted by the Islamic Republic including from the if I may say just in | 并被伊朗伊斯兰共和国采纳,包括从我能否说到 |
| 181 | by the Iranian Maoists of the 1970s and 80s they were quite a | 20世纪70年代和80年代的伊朗毛派分子 |
| 182 | quite a force to generate that kind of anti-westernism anti-Americanism that by itself | 形成这种反西方主义 反美国主义的力量 |
| 183 | roots in places in episodes in Chinese history that I need not to go to well so the option of | 扎根于中国历史中的一些地方... ... ...... |
| 184 | seem to me it's nearly over if it's not entirely over namely that it seems to be | 在我看来,如果它没有完全结束 也就是它似乎已经结束了 |
| 185 | this it seems to have been discredited to the extent that whatever was the chances | 这似乎已经失去信誉 以至于无论什么机会 |
| 186 | were very slim anyway now even Trump which himself is incoherent and totally rational | 反正现在连特朗普都瘦了 他自己也是不连贯和完全理性的 |
| 187 | does not seem to pay any more homage or attention to the option of Reza Balleri | 礼萨·巴列里的选择似乎不再受到尊敬或关注 |
| 188 | so what's going on we are in a kind of standstill at this as of yesterday | 从昨天起,我们陷入僵局 |
| 189 | and then there's an exchange of hostilities on both sides | 然后双方发生敌对关系 |
| 190 | Iranians mostly either very symbolic when they invade Israel or the Israelis when they were | 伊朗人大多在入侵以色列时非常具有象征意义,或者在以色列入侵时非常具有象征意义。 |
| 191 | effectively destroyed even more of Iranians of structure infrastructure and of course | 有效地摧毁了更多伊朗人的结构基础设施,当然还有 |
| 192 | same with the United States every day you see of a new incident and then there is this semblance | 每天都有美国出现新事件, |
| 193 | and appearance of some kind of a apparently a ceasefire which I think is very questionable | 和某种表面上的停火的外表 我认为非常值得怀疑 |
| 194 | but that's what it is and I don't know whether and in what terms there is going to be a settlement | 但是,这就是它是什么 我不知道是否 和在什么条件 要有一个解决方案 |
| 195 | or whether there's going to be any kind of a sustainable peace for one reason because | 或是否有 任何类型的可持续和平 出于一个原因 |
| 196 | the Israelis are going to sabotage it as they did at least three times so they maybe wouldn't | 以色列人会像他们那样破坏它 至少三次 这样他们也许不会 |
| 197 | be very happy no matter how much Trump these days apparently halves and parts that he is | 不管特朗普这几天有多少人 很明显是一半还是一半 |
| 198 | he has been very straightforward with Netanyahu and his cohorts in Israel we don't know | 他一直非常直截了当地对待内塔尼亚胡 和他在以色列的同伙 我们不知道 |
| 199 | if there is a difference if there is a rift between Israel and Iran but whatever it is | 如果以色列和伊朗之间有分歧,但无论是什么,都存在分歧 |
| 200 | we should not expect that peace and quiet would emerge without the Israelis at least getting | 我们不应期望,在没有以色列人至少获得和平和安宁的情况下,和平和安宁将会出现。 |
| 201 | something out of it and I don't know how and I don't know how I think the key point here is | 有点事,我不知道如何... 我不知道我怎么认为关键是 |
| 202 | the Hezbollah in Lebanon to everybody's surprise even myself Iranians are insisting on the fact | 黎巴嫩真主党对每个人的惊讶 甚至我本人 伊朗人坚持事实 |
| 203 | that the Hezbollah should be protected and there's not going to be any more | 真主党应该受到保护 不会再有 |
| 204 | Israeli crazy attack in southern Lebanon and killing of ordinary people in the name of the | 以色列在黎巴嫩南部的疯狂袭击和以以色列的名义杀害普通百姓 |
| 205 | of trying to suppress or destroy the Hezbollah it seems that the future of Hezbollah is somewhat | 试图镇压或摧毁真主党 看来真主党的前途是多少 |
| 206 | tied to the future of the peace talks in Iran and this is not good for Iran this is not strategically | 与伊朗和平会谈的未来有关 这对伊朗不利 这在战略上不是 |
| 207 | good for Iran but the Iranian regime particularly the Revolutionary Guards have very very close | 但伊朗政权,尤其是革命卫队 关系非常密切 |
| 208 | ties with the Hezbollah and I don't think they're going to abandon them so that's going to be a | 我觉得他们不会放弃真主党 所以那将是 |
| 209 | the Israelis to stop attacking Hezbollah and accept in the presence of Hezbollah | 以色列停止攻击真主党,并当着真主党的面接受 |
| 210 | after what after more than two years of brutal destruction of of southern Lebanon of | 经过两年多对黎巴嫩南部的野蛮破坏之后 |
| 211 | parts of Beirut still the Hezbollah is in place everybody thought that | 贝鲁特的部分地区仍然有真主党存在 每个人都认为 |
| 212 | disappeared for good but that didn't happen with the with the Hezbollah it didn't happen with the | 永远消失,但真主党没有发生... |
| 213 | Hamas in the Gaza and if nothing with the Iranians are probably now and this is not an | 哈马斯在加沙,如果现在与伊朗人没有任何关系的话,这不是一个 |
| 214 | exaggeration the Revolutionary Guards and the radicals are stronger than ever they have been | 夸大革命卫队和激进分子比以往更强大 |
| 215 | in Iran and they're going to remain so for the time being I don't think there is any | 在伊朗,他们会留下来 所以暂时,我不认为有任何 |
| 216 | chance for their weakening in a short term in long term yes I think the ideological positions | 可能在短期内削弱他们 长期是的 我认为意识形态的立场 |
| 217 | may change this kind of rhetoric of Islam has been tired and you know probably it's going to | 可能改变伊斯兰教的这种言辞 已经很疲倦了,你知道它可能会 |
| 218 | more of a nationalistic turn maybe something is going generationally to happen | 更像民族主义的转折 也许有些事情要发生 |
| 219 | and if you want to be optimistic Iran may move in a different direction but for the time being | 如果你想乐观,伊朗可能会朝着另一个方向发展,但暂时 |
| 220 | we don't know then what would happen I think this is the last point I would like to make | иぃ笵或快 и稱硂琌и程稱弧 |
| 221 | is that who is who are these people that we refer to as the Iranians | 我们称之为伊朗人的人是谁? |
| 222 | that negotiate with the United States presumably talk with the intermediaries the Pakistanis | 可能与美国谈判的中间人是巴基斯坦人 |
| 223 | the Turks possibly even the Chinese which I think are going to play a very important part | 土耳其人可能甚至中国人 我认为他们将会扮演非常重要的角色 |
| 224 | uh this is who are they we don't know there's a big question mark there we just see some | 嗯,这就是他们是谁,我们不知道 有一个大的问号在那里,我们只是看到一些 |
| 225 | fear heads and that they're engaged in Mr. Ghalibov the Speaker of the Parliament | 害怕头部和他们 与Ghalibov先生订婚 议会议长 |
| 226 | who knows why he's the one who is in the uh in the spearhead of the negotiations | 谁知道为什么他才是谈判的先锋 |
| 227 | uh the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araqchi maybe a few others we don't know | 呃,外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇 也许还有其他几个我们不知道的 |
| 228 | so the nature of this new formation uh particularly after the collapse uh after the | 所以这个新阵型的性质... 特别是倒闭之后... |
| 229 | assassination of Ali Khamenei and a fair number of quite a substantial number of the top rank | 暗杀阿里·哈梅内伊和相当数目的高级军官 |
| 230 | revolutionaries by the Israelis after revolutionary leaders I mean revolutionary guard | 革命领袖之后的革命者,我是指革命卫队 |
| 231 | commanders so who are the people who are now in power we don't know a few names here and there | 所以,谁是现在掌权的人 我们不知道几个名字在这里和那里 |
| 232 | we hear but I doubt that first of all the struggle for power is not going on | 我们听到,但我怀疑,首先 争权夺利的斗争没有进行 |
| 233 | probably there is one that we don't see and we don't it's not in the open or at least not | 可能有一个我们看不到,我们没有 它不是在开放或至少没有 |
| 234 | yet in the open and the fate of most in certain respects enigmatic and at the same time kind of | 但在某些神秘的方面,在开放和命运的同时也有 |
| 235 | ridiculous uh is the this new guy Mustafa Khamenei the son of Ali Khamenei who supposedly is the new | 这个新人穆斯塔法·哈梅内伊是阿里·哈梅内伊的儿子 他应该是新来的 |
| 236 | guardian jurist or the new supreme leader nobody has ever seen him nobody has ever heard of him | 没有人见过他 没人听说过他 |
| 237 | this guy is completely non-existent I think probably is either dead or very badly | 这家伙是完全不存在的 我认为可能是死了或者非常糟糕 |
| 238 | incapacitated so what we have we have a person a leadership in absentia and what's going to happen | 因此,我们有一个人 一个领导缺席 以及会发生什么 |
| 239 | to that there is a precedent for that in Islamic history I've given a talk actually a couple of | 在伊斯兰史上,我曾经说过一些 |
| 240 | that 10th century model of the hidden imam the 12th imam who's been considered as the hidden imam | 10世纪的藏伊玛目模式 第12伊玛目被认为是藏伊玛目 |
| 241 | who's going to appear at the end of the time is a model that may either by choice or out of | 谁会出现在时间的末端 是一个模型,可能 选择或退出 |
| 242 | desperation may be adopted by the Islamic Republic or is already adopted by the Islamic Republic | 绝望可能被伊斯兰共和国采纳或已经被伊斯兰共和国采纳 |
| 243 | we hear every now and then there is a declaration coming out in writing that this is probably from | 我们时常听到书面宣言 说这可能是来自 |
| 244 | the supreme new supreme leader but and there are all kind of images as you can see in many | 最高新领袖,但是... ...... ...... |
| 245 | of the demonstrations which incidentally the numbers are very small it's not one more than | 顺便说一句,这些示威游行的数量非常少,但不超过 |
| 246 | five thousand or something that shows the how how how the popular support for the regime is | 五千块或显示人民如何支持政权的东西 |
| 247 | dwindling even more than before but nevertheless you see all of this propaganda all of this huge | 越来越少了,不过你还是看到这些宣传 如此巨大 |
| 248 | murals that you can see around Tehran or in other cities showing the revolutionary gods in | 在德黑兰或其他城市可以看到的 显示革命神明的壁画 |
| 249 | the holding the Strait of Hormuz or the picture of Khomeini Ali Khamenei and his son | 霍穆兹海峡或霍梅尼阿里·哈梅内伊及其儿子的照片 |
| 250 | Mustafa as the kind of continuity and leadership that kind of thing but this is our propaganda | 穆斯塔法是那种连续性和领导力 但这是我们的宣传 |
| 251 | so we don't know what's going on and the future of the regime in terms of leadership | 因此,我们不知道发生了什么 和未来政权的领导地位 |
| 252 | may be one of the one of the weak points weak links in the future of the Islamic Republic | 可能是伊朗伊斯兰共和国未来薄弱环节之一 |
| 253 | and the struggle for power there what comes out of it we don't know | 和那里争权夺利 我们不知道从中产生什么 |
| 254 | I'm sure that the revolutionary guards who are currently in charge of the Hormuz | 我相信目前掌管霍尔木兹的革命卫队 |
| 255 | and the whole of the Persian Gulf region may play an important part in the future | 整个波斯湾地区可能在未来发挥重要作用 |
| 256 | of the Islamic Republic who are they are faceless we don't know then I think also | 他们都是无面目的,我们不知道 |
| 257 | in terms of negotiations no peace no war may continue for quite a while and that for domestic | 在谈判方面,任何和平都不可能在相当长的一段时间内持续下去,国内战争也不可能持续。 |
| 258 | in in the United States that is that because there is a midterm election in the United States | 在美国,因为美国举行中期选举 |
| 259 | you know November of this year Trump I think Trump administration is extremely worried | 今年11月特朗普 我觉得特朗普政府非常担心 |
| 260 | because of the fact that in every possible ground they have made a mess out of everything | 因为在每一个可能的地方 他们把一切都弄得一团糟 |
| 261 | so there is no point of success except for the financial markets | 所以除了金融市场之外 没有成功点 |
| 262 | the value of the stocks otherwise in every other ground that you look at it there is a loss | 在你所看到的所有其他理由中 股票的价值就会有损失 |
| 263 | in terms of the social the attempt to try to bring about social changes they seem to have been very | 就社会而言,试图带来社会变革的尝试似乎非常 |
| 264 | popular war in the United States with Iran is extremely unpopular support for Israel is | 美国与伊朗的民众战争 极不受欢迎地支持以色列 |
| 265 | badly dwindling within the United States and of course the propped up fear of China that we hear | 美国内部严重萎缩,当然还有我们听到的对中国的恐惧 |
| 266 | now and then as if certain certain | 时不时的仿佛确定 |
| 267 | part of the American politics or polity is desperate to find an enemy | 美国政治或政体的一部分 渴望找到敌人 |
| 268 | and the enemy is could not be Russia could not be Iran well they are in certain hierarchy | 敌人不可能是俄罗斯 也可能是伊朗 他们处于某种等级 |
| 269 | whether the top of that hierarchy is China and the Chinese I mean I'm speculating I'm not an | 无论是中国还是中国... ...我是说,我是在假设我不是... |
| 270 | expert on Chinese politics at all but it seems to me that they don't seem to have much of an | 但在我看来 他们似乎没什么 |
| 271 | incentive to try between to be a problem solver for the United States at this particular context | 激励人们尝试在两者之间成为美国在这一特定背景下的解决问题者 |
| 272 | so they probably let the Americans and the Israelis to boil in their own juices | 所以他们可能让美国人和以色列人 在自己的果汁中沸腾 |
| 273 | rather than coming off with the kind of a plan for rescuing the negotiations whatever that | 而不是用那种拯救谈判的计划 |
| 274 | negotiation whatever the stage that negotiation is whatever the demands of the United States | 无论谈判的阶段是美国的要求 |
| 275 | the demands of the Islamic Republic whatever it is it seems to me that probably the Chinese | 我对伊斯兰共和国的要求 认为可能是中国人 |
| 276 | being very pragmatic may look around and see that there is no chat there isn't no reason for them | 讲求实际 四处看看 没有聊天 没有他们的理由 |
| 277 | to try to resolve the issue except the fact that they purchase I think up to 90 percent of the | 试图解决这个问题 除了他们购买了90% |
| 278 | very secure reserves you've been told that's the Chinese have very secure reserves and they may | 你听说中国人有非常安全的储备 他们可能 |
| 279 | have alternative options for providing the necessarily necessary energy oil that they | 拥有提供必要能源油的替代选择 |
| 280 | that they require at least for the short term and for the middle term and the long term it | 他们至少需要短期、中期和长期 |
| 281 | needs to be seen so given all of this probably in all their own wisdom and in all their own | 需要这样看待 这一切可能 在所有他们自己的智慧 和所有自己的 |
| 282 | cautious course of policy they may stay away and see what's going to happen in in the | 谨慎的政策方向 他们可能远离 并看看会发生什么 |
| 283 | Strait of Hormuz whether the Strait of Hormuz is going to open eventually it will but in whose | 霍尔木兹海峡是否最终将开放,但由谁在 |
| 284 | benefit remains to be seen great thank you so much and I think we can open the floor for some | 感谢你们这么多 我想我们可以让一些人发言 |
| 285 | questions from the audience I think we've covered a lot of ground but I'm sure there's plenty | 观众提问,我想我们已经 覆盖了很多地方 但我敢肯定,有很多 |
| 286 | that people would like to ask so if anybody has questions feel free to raise your hands or you can | 人们想问,如果有人有问题可以举起你的手,或者你可以 |
| 287 | also unmute yourself and we can call on you and we can have some interaction well I've talked | 也不要自责,我们可以找你,我们可以有 互动好,我已经谈过了 |
| 288 | quarter three quarter of an hour it seems to me so I think by the way this may be I'm not | 3/4小时,在我看来, 所以我想,这样也许我不是 |
| 289 | quite sure this may be the kind of the skeleton for what may appear as an article somewhere | 非常肯定,这可能是那种骨架 可能出现在某处的文章 |
| 290 | maybe in foreign affairs or somewhere there are lots of speculations lots of talks so I have | 也许在外事或什么地方 有很多猜测 很多谈话 所以我有 |
| 291 | something new to say I have to have to have something new to say and I think probably I do | 说些新话 我得说点新话 我觉得我可能有 |
| 292 | because a combination of all these four three four factors together may offer us a | 因为把这四个因素加在一起 可能给我们带来 |
| 293 | a very complex view very enigmatic situation but it is better than what | 一个非常复杂的观点 非常神秘的情况 但是比什么好 |
| 294 | some so-called experts overnight experts tend to speculate yes | 一些所谓的专家过夜专家 往往猜测是的 |
| 295 | looks like Alicia has her hand up Alicia do you have a question you want to ask | 看起来Alicia把手举起来 Alicia 你想问一个问题吗? |
| 296 | yes I do have a question okay go ahead so I'm a high school student who is really interested | 是的,我有一个问题 可以继续,所以我是一个高中生 谁真的很感兴趣 |
| 297 | in history and our school mostly focuses on the European like western side of history | 我们的学校主要关注欧洲 就像历史的西部一样 |
| 298 | and I when I'm learning the history of maybe like second world war or first world war | 当我学会了也许第二次世界大战或第一次世界大战的历史 |
| 299 | there is a kind of connection between those war history and the history like and what we | 战争历史和我们的历史有某种联系 |
| 300 | experience today so the question I have is throughout a 500 year history Iran has | 今天我的问题是 伊朗在500年的历史中 |
| 301 | experienced a lot of foreign intervention and internal power shifts as you mentioned | 经历了很多的外国干预 和内部权力转移 正如你提到的 |
| 302 | and so how does like the current US-Iran confrontation resemble the past experiences | 为何美国-伊朗的对抗会像过去一样, |
| 303 | such as the one during the Persian Empire or periods of other like foreign interference | 比如波斯帝国时期的 或外国干涉时期 |
| 304 | in modern Iran and how do these historical experiences influence Iran's diplomatic | 以及这些历史经验如何影响伊朗的外交 |
| 305 | strategies today it's an excellent question thank you well that's the kind of thing that | 今天的策略 是个很好的问题 谢谢你 |
| 306 | the historians would love to talk about namely that do a certain comparison with the past quite | 历史学家们想谈谈 与过去做一个比较 |
| 307 | frankly over the past few months I've been trying thinking whether I can find | 老实说 过去几个月 我一直在想能否找到 |
| 308 | something very basic whether I can find an equivalent to what is happening up to today | 我能不能找到一个和今天一样的 |
| 309 | god knows what's going to happen in two months time or big time we don't know but up to today | 天知道两个月后会发生什么 我们不知道,直到今天 |
| 310 | if you would consider the course of action that the Islamic Republic had taken and with the | 请你考虑伊朗伊斯兰共和国采取的行动方针,以及 |
| 311 | its forefront whether this has been a success whether the war seemed to have | 战争似乎是否成功 |
| 312 | turned into a victory for Iran or victories it's too much to say but has has not been defeated | 变成了伊朗的胜利或胜利 说得太过分了 但还没有被打败 |
| 313 | has not been eliminated that's for sure okay if you look at a case like that one that whether | 还没有被消除,这是肯定的 如果你看这样的一个案件,是否 |
| 314 | this can be interpreted as a victory has not appeared has not happened to Iran since the 18th | 这可以解释为,胜利没有出现,伊朗从18日以后就没有出现过 |
| 315 | century since the time of Nadir Shah that is mid 18th century 1730s after the collapse of the | 自从纳迪尔·沙阿时代 也就是18世纪中叶... 1730年代... |
| 316 | Safavid Empire and he's emerging as a kind of a savior at least for a period of time as a savior | 萨法维德帝国 和他逐渐成为一个救世主 至少一段时间 作为一个救世主 |
| 317 | before he turned into a real tyrant during this period 1730s 1740s he restored Iran's back into | 1730年代 1740年代 他把伊朗恢复为 |
| 318 | the into the time of the Safavid era and he was quite popular and he fought against the | 进入了萨法维德时代 他相当受欢迎 他对抗 |
| 319 | the great in the north and defeated it because already the Russians advanced into the southern | 因为俄国人已经进军南方 |
| 320 | Caspian Iranian coast he fought against the Ottomans probably still in the 18th century | 里海伊朗海岸 他与奥斯曼人作战 可能还在18世纪 |
| 321 | one of the most powerful military forces in the world if not the most important but one of the | 世界上最强大的军事力量之一 如果不是最重要的 |
| 322 | most important and defeated them and forced them backward recaptured Iranian territories from them | 最重要的是打败他们,迫使他们向后夺回伊朗领土 |
| 323 | he even in the Persian Gulf managed to make quite a few advances he ran the Afghans and Uzbeks | 他在波斯湾也取得了一些进步 他管理着阿富汗人和乌兹别克人 |
| 324 | out of the eastern Iranian frontiers so he was for a while in the 1730s and 40s | 1730年代和40年代他暂时离开伊朗东部边境 |
| 325 | a kind of a symbol of success he had the world attention the very if you look at some of the | 一种成功的象征 他让世界关注 如果你看看一些 |
| 326 | newspapers of the 18th century you'd see that Nadir Shah or Nadir Khan or Nadir | 18世纪的报纸 你会看到纳迪尔·沙阿或纳迪尔·汗或纳迪尔 |
| 327 | another Boli as his real name was as a chief that has revived Iran emerges as a major | 另一位Boli作为他的真名 曾是一位使伊朗复活的酋长 |
| 328 | major world figure and has been said later on because of his invasion of | 之后有人说他入侵了 |
| 329 | the mughal empire of india and taking over delhi he had the kind of a greater notoriety | 印地安帝国的丑恶统治者 接管了德利希 他的名声更深 |
| 330 | and it has been said and probably can be said with some proof that later on the early 19th century | 并且已经说过,也许可以说 有一些证据,19世纪初 |
| 331 | east india companies expansion to southern to central and southern india | 东部印迪亚公司向南部向中部和南部扩张 |
| 332 | uh the possibly the same time general bonaparte's interest in the recapture of the | 也可能是同一时间 普林斯顿对夺回 |
| 333 | southern indian provinces all comes from the fact that they saw that the mughal empire could | 印地安南部省份 都来自他们看到 |
| 334 | easily be defeated as it was defeated by nadir by this iranian conqueror so that's the only example | 很容易被击败 因为纳迪尔被这个 伊斯兰征服者击败 所以这是唯一的例子 |
| 335 | i can see for the whole of the 18th century or middle of the 18th century to the first quarter | 我可以看到整个18世纪 或者18世纪中叶到第一季度 |
| 336 | of the 21st century there is nothing else most of the engagements that iran had to which some of | 在21世纪,伊兰公司没有其他什么 参与其中的一部分 |
| 337 | this you which you refer to first world war second world war both of them iran was basically a | 你指的是第一次世界大战 第二次世界大战 他们两个伊兰基本上都是 |
| 338 | standard victim that it did not have any part it did not emerge it did not enter into any kind | 标准受害人,没有 任何部分,它没有出现 它没有进入任何种类 |
| 339 | of a coalition with the access during the first world war second world war on the side of the | 第一次世界大战期间 第二次世界大战期间 |
| 340 | germans or with the allied forces during the second world war and both cases iran was | 第二次世界大战期间德国人或盟军和伊兰 |
| 341 | almost completely occupied by fire forces first world war by the british and the | 几乎完全被火力占领 第一次世界大战被英国人和 |
| 342 | and the russian tesaris russian up to 1917 and then by the british throughout the rest of the | 和俄国人 Tesaris 俄罗斯人直到1917年 然后被英国人带到其他地方 |
| 343 | war and post-war period that's the first world war and during the second world war of course by | 这是第一次世界大战 也是第二次世界大战期间 |
| 344 | russians by the that is by the soviets by the british and by the americans | 俄国人就是苏维埃人 英国人和美国人 |
| 345 | during the course of the war it was more of an occupation they did not really attack iran | 在战争期间 他们并没有真正攻击伊兰 |
| 346 | they did attack iran but quickly iranians surrendered so the example of then the example | 他们确实袭击了伊兰 但很快伊兰人投降了 所以当时的例子 |
| 347 | even of the more recent war iran iraq war in the 1980s you see the war of eight years eventually | 甚至近代战争的伊兰伊拉克战争 在1980年代,你看到八年的战争最终 |
| 348 | ended in a standstill that was interpreted because iran lost territory in its western borders | 以伊兰失去西部边界领土为由, |
| 349 | 支持Saddam的狂欢 但是在Saddam攻击了Kuwait之后 突然改变 | |
| 350 | with the united states or the united states engaged with saddam and saddam was destroyed so | 和那些与悲哀和悲哀交战的美国或美国 被摧毁了 |
| 351 | iranians managed to regain the some of the frontier territories that they lost in in the west | 伊朗人设法夺回了西部失去的一些边境领土 |
| 352 | over the zagros frontier so that cannot be really interpreted as a success | 在Zagros边境上 所以这不能被真正解释为成功 |
| 353 | in the war they fought a very very valiant very persistent | 在战争中他们打 一个非常勇敢的非常坚持 |
| 354 | resistance against the against the iraqis at a great great price | 以高昂的代价反抗伊斯兰军 |
| 355 | that close to a million of iranians were killed 800 000 to a million like are the casualties of | 将近100万伊朗人被杀 8万到100万的伤亡 |
| 356 | the iran iraq war in the 1980s and much that it had impacted the creation of the islamic republic | 20世纪80年代的伊兰伊拉克战争 以及它给建立伊斯兰共和国 带来的影响 |
| 357 | the decades afterwards creation i mean the the development of the islamic republic much of those | 我是指伊斯兰共和国的发展 |
| 358 | who fought in the war are the current leaders or were up to recently the leaders of the islamic | 在战争中参战的 是现任领导人 或直到最近 |
| 359 | republic now that's all being said i cannot see any other example of success most of the time | 共和党现在都说了 我大部分时间都看不到其他成功的例子 |
| 360 | it was a history of resistance and the history of defeat but not destruction | 是抵抗的历史,是失败的历史,不是毁灭的历史 |
| 361 | that you can see ever since 17th century uh the during the reign of abbas the great which is the | 从17世纪开始,你可以看到... 在阿拔斯统治时期... |
| 362 | height of the sapphire empire and the success of the sapphire against the ottomans against the | 蓝宝石帝国的高度 和蓝宝石成功对抗水手们 |
| 363 | blacks against the portuguese in the persian gulf i mean the same place that now it's being in | 黑人在波斯湾里对抗葡萄牙人 我是指现在它所在的地方 |
| 364 | fought the straight of hormones once by uh conquered in 1622 1623 i'm not quite sure | 1622年 1623年被乌鲁征服 我不确定 |
| 365 | about the exact date when the iranian forces with the help of the east india company british is in | 在东部印地安人公司帮助下 |
| 366 | company fought and expelled the portuguese from the uh from the island of hormones when they had | 连队在激素岛与葡萄牙人战斗 并驱逐了他们 |
| 367 | their strongholds and the street of hormones was gained by iran regained by iran that is | 他们的据点和荷尔蒙的街道 被Iran夺回,也就是Iran |
| 368 | because prior to that it was the iranian territory ever since the ancient times it was always been | 因为它之前是 古代以来的伊朗领土 |
| 369 | iranian 域名的方式 它的名称是 荷尔蒙是ahura mazda的术语 | |
| 370 | the god of zoroastrianism the wise god of zoroastrianism that it's the name of this | 佐罗亚斯德教的神 佐罗亚斯德教的智慧神 就是这个名字 |
| 371 | straight because of the local dynasties that were hormones it's known in the area | 直是因为当地的王朝都是荷尔蒙 当地人都知道 |
| 372 | anyway what it's important is to remember that and that iranians had a uh uh have a legitimate | 不管怎么样 重要的是要记住... ... .. |
| 373 | claim over the straight of hormones but whether this claim was ever enforced prior to | 荷尔蒙的直线索赔,但这项索赔是否在 |
| 374 | the recent uh uh hostilities remains to be seen i think the example that we can go back is the time | 最近发生的敌对事件还有待观察 我认为我们可以回去的例子是时间 |
| 375 | of i was the great as i just mentioned uh in the 17th century but uh one for one final point in | 正如我在17世纪刚刚提到的,我是伟大的 但呃,最后一点 |
| 376 | response to you i mean when you read the history of modern china prior to 47 the parallels with | 在47年前读到现代瓷器的历史 |
| 377 | modern iran and the process of modernization the problem of encounter with the great powers | 现代伊兰和现代化进程 遇到大国的问题 |
| 378 | and this is very it's not exactly the same but it's the parallels are very striking | 这是非常不完全一样的 但它的平行非常惊人 |
| 379 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}在中国和伊兰之间 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我肯定你们有些人读过 | |
| 380 | 数十年来历史系的同事 Jonathan Spence教授 | |
| 381 | late professor jonathan spence who has written this famous book i think it's called in search of | 已故教授Jonathan spence 谁写了这本名著 我认为它叫做寻找 |
| 382 | modern china as a thick famous textbook it still is if most probably well-known textbook and many | 现代瓷器作为厚重的著名教科书 如果最有名的教科书和很多 |
| 383 | chapters of it when you draw a comparison with modern iran you would see that there are very | 当你与现代的Iran作比较时,你会发现 |
| 384 | remarkable comparisons the same of resistance the same of cultural confidence uh the sense of | 相当显著的比较 同样的抵抗 同样的文化自信... |
| 385 | uh uh sometimes uh uh sometimes uh uh weakening uh resolve against the great powers | 有时,有时,有时,呃... ... 弱化... |
| 386 | these similarities are very striking thank you for that if you are interested in comparative | 这些相似之处非常惊人 感谢你 如果你对比较感兴趣 |
| 387 | history yes i'm sorry yeah go ahead no no i was just going to say that's uh we're actually having | 历史 是的 对不起 说吧 不 我只是想说 |
| 388 | Jonathan spence 呃 纪念讲座系列 即将到来 额... | |
| 389 | for those who that are interested yeah yeah he's a great colleague and always always have been | 对有兴趣的人来说 是的 他是个好同事 一直都是 |
| 390 | extraordinary encouragement for me because my first book resurrection and renewal about it | 特别的鼓励我 因为我的第一本书复活 并更新它 |
| 391 | about the messianic movement in the middle of the 19th century very very famous very forceful one | 关于19世纪中叶的救世主运动 非常有名的 |
| 392 | corresponds very closely to the i think it's taiping movement in china at the same time with | 和瓷器的打字运动很接近 |
| 393 | same messianic motives so he and i exchanged notes on that uh quite a lot and he read | 同样的救世主动机 所以他和我交换了很多笔记 |
| 394 | prior to mine came out much earlier than this and he told me that he was very excited when | 之前,我的出 远早于这个 他告诉我,他非常兴奋,当 |
| 395 | he saw that there are comparisons between the two of them of course the typing movement was | 他看见他们俩有比较 当然打字运动是 |
| 396 | far far in terms of the sheer numbers and the intensity of the uprising | 从人数和起义的激烈程度来看 |
| 397 | against the central chinese government compared to the bavi movement in iran in the 19th century | 与19世纪伊兰的巴维运动相比 |
| 398 | which was by the way equally troubling for but the population of iran in the mid 19th century was | 但19世纪中叶的伊兰人口 |
| 399 | something or six million if that population of china in the mid 19th century was i don't know | 如果19世纪中叶的中国人口 是六百万的话 |
| 400 | huge if they lost what more than a couple of millions in the course of the typing | 如果在打字过程中损失了超过几百万,那就很大了 |
| 401 | uprisings and the uprising and then the typing had the chance to actually prevail in in the | 起义和起义,然后打字的机会 实际在 |
| 402 | hostilities with the with the with the central chinese government but that's the fate of the | 与中国中央政府的敌对关系, |
| 403 | and the power of sort of this religion and and and politics kind of come coming together this | 以及这种宗教的力量 和政治上的力量 都汇集在一起 |
| 404 | is a question from the live stream audience which we also have over 900 people joining us | 这是来自现场观众的提问 我们也有900多人参加 |
| 405 | on live stream but the question of of the shiite faith or philosophy or prophecy eschatology all | 在活的溪流上,但问题 shiite 信仰或哲学 或预言 空洞学 |
| 406 | these things how do they play into the current sort of popular sentiment within iran and how | 这些东西如何在目前伊兰的流行情绪中 发挥出来? |
| 407 | those views affect how it views itself as well as sort of its place in the rest of the middle east | 这些观点影响了它如何看待自己,也影响了它在中东部其他地区的地位。 |
| 408 | and the rest of the world again an excellent question which i actually did have a note here | 和世界其他地方再次 一个非常好的问题 我确实有一个字条在这里 |
| 409 | but i didn't get into it i just look at it right now look it is quite possible to say that the | 但我没有进入它 我只是看看它现在 看这是非常可能的说 |
| 410 | revolution of 1979 can be looked at as among other aspects of it can be looked at as a kind of an | 1979年的革命可以看作是,除其他方面外,可以看作是一种 |
| 411 | proto apocalyptic proto messianic or even not proto a kind of messianic movement that anticipates | 或甚至没有 一种预想中的 救世主运动 |
| 412 | some kind of a apocalypse and not apocalypse in the sense of the annihilation of the world | 某种末日而不是毁灭世界的末日 |
| 413 | but apocalypse in the sense of substantial revolutionary change in the course of the world | 但世界发生重大革命变革的启示 |
| 414 | if not world at least islamic world you can see that the homin no doubt i've written about it | 如果不是世界,至少是伊斯兰世界... ...你可以看到... ...那个我写过的人... |
| 415 | appears also in my book i've written several articles about it and it and at least two | 也出现在我的书里 我写了好几篇文章 |
| 416 | books one apocalyptic islam and iranian revolution which came out 2009 i believe | 2009年的伊兰革命 我相信 |
| 417 | and then the other collection of essays that i put together with a former student of mine | 我和我的前学生一起整理的论文集 |
| 418 | they called imagining the end that came out as a book and it's a collection of probably around | 他们称之为想象的结尾 出来作为一本书 它是一个集合 可能周围 |
| 419 | 20 or so essays that we produce around the year 2000 and they all engage in the issue of | 大约20篇我们大约在2000年 制作的论文 他们都参与解决 |
| 420 | apocalypticism both historically and in modern sense in contemporary sense now as far as today | 历史和现代意义上的末日主义 |
| 421 | is concerned now it is we've been told that this ideology is still persist maybe it's still | 现在担心的是,我们被告知, 这种意识形态依然存在 也许它仍然 |
| 422 | lingering maybe among the revolutionary guards who are sitting on the straight of hormones and | 也许在那些坐在荷尔蒙直线上的 革命卫队中 |
| 423 | i mean between life and death they are the future for them is to persist and to stay there for them | 我的意思是,在生死之间 他们的未来对他们来说是 坚持下去,为他们留在那里 |
| 424 | maybe there is a kind of a vision of the hidden imam is going to really as as extreme as that | 也许有种想象 隐藏的伊玛目会真的像那个那样极端 |
| 425 | that the hidden imam may eventually emerge and you know how many was a hidden imam i mean he is the | 隐藏的伊玛目最终可能会出现 你知道有多少人是一个隐藏的伊玛目 我的意思是他是 |
| 426 | kind of a messianic figure more than 18 years was not a well he was a very crafty politician | 18年多的救世主人物 并不是个聪明的政客 |
| 427 | but he was at the same time i think more of a messianic figure so but nevertheless the | 但他同时,我更认为 是一个救世主的人物 所以,但尽管如此, |
| 428 | spirit of messianism had survived i've discussed that at some length in that book apocalyptic islam | 弥撒主义的精神幸存了下来 我在这本书里 已经讨论过了 |
| 429 | and iranian schism at least in a couple of chapters of mission and also in modern iran | 以及现代伊兰语中 |
| 430 | i've also discussed it for those of you who would like to read it in chinese of course the chinese | 我也为你们这些想用中国文读的人谈过了 当然是中国文 |
| 431 | edition i don't have the knowledge of chinese but i hear that it's a good translation so | 我不懂中国语 但我听说这是个很好的翻译 |
| 432 | that's a possibility that we may see that it's reviving again in in today's iran maybe | 这可能是我们可能看到 它在今天的伊兰再次复活 |
| 433 | it's a motivating force behind the revolutionary guard corps maybe but we don't have that kind of a | 也许是革命卫队背后的动力 但是我们没有那种 |
| 434 | hand even we don't see an interview with a military leader who has his hands on not | 手,甚至我们也没有看到采访 一个军事领导人 谁有他的手不 |
| 435 | somebody who is sitting in tehran but somebody is actually sitting in the pershing garb somewhere | 有人坐在特赫兰... ...但实际上有人坐在... |
| 436 | and sustaining the bombardments and and in certain respects probably take take the initiative | 并在某些方面采取主动 |
| 437 | those people we don't know but and we don't know where they stand maybe that they have some kind | 那些我们不认识的人 但我们不知道他们的立场 也许他们有某种 |
| 438 | of it still the still the those people we don't know about and we don't know where they stand | 还有那些我们不认识的人 我们不知道他们在哪 |
| 439 | remnant of that ideology of the Islamic Republic. | 伊朗伊斯兰共和国的这种意识形态的残余。 |
| 440 | That's why that Islam is beyond Iran. | 这就是为什么伊斯兰教超越伊朗。 |
| 441 | And that's why the proxies are important or have been important for the time being. | 然则代人之所以重要,或暂时重要. |
| 442 | And I think it's the, unfortunately, this is the weak point for the Islamic Republic. | 我认为,不幸的是,这是伊斯兰共和国的弱点。 |
| 443 | I've always been against, in the past, the precedence for the case of the proxies in Iran has always been disastrous. | 过去我一直反对伊朗代理人案的先例, |
| 444 | Ever since the 7th century, you can bring examples of the collapse of the Sasanian Empire, | 从7世纪起 你可以举出萨尼帝国崩溃的例子 |
| 445 | which was at the time probably the most powerful empire in the world, China aside, | 当时中国可能是世界上最强大的帝国 |
| 446 | but certainly more powerful than the Byzantine Empire. | 但肯定比拜占庭帝国更强大 |
| 447 | I mean, the support or the lack of support, the wrong policy towards the proxies brought its end, | 我的意思是, 支持或缺乏支持, 错误的政策 对于代理, |
| 448 | suffered with times at the same time. | 同时受苦受难 |
| 449 | And the Islamic Republic's own example, if you look at the case of the disaster that happened in Syria, | 和伊斯兰共和国自己的例子, 如果你看看叙利亚发生的灾难, |
| 450 | of the billions of the Iranian money, of so much of its resources, revolutionary guards, weapons, | 数以亿计的伊朗货币 如此多的资源 革命卫队 武器 |
| 451 | finances, all of this was devoted to keeping the Basis regime in Syria in power, | 金融,所有这一切都是为了 保持叙利亚的基础政权执政, |
| 452 | who was not, by the way, always very loyal to Iran. | 顺便说一句,他一直对伊朗非常忠诚。 |
| 453 | Eventually, that collapsed. | 最终,它崩溃了。 |
| 454 | And the Iranians doesn't seem to be learning their lessons. | 而伊朗人似乎并没有吸取教训. |
| 455 | So they still, as I just said earlier on, they're supporting the Hezbollah. | 所以,正如我刚才所说,他们仍然支持真主党。 |
| 456 | And I don't know the situation in Hezbollah. | 我不知道真主党的情况。 |
| 457 | When the majority of the Lebanese people are against it, what does it say to them? | 当大多数黎巴嫩人民反对的时候,它对他们说了什么? |
| 458 | That this is a side of Iranian imperialism? | 这是伊朗帝国主义的一面? |
| 459 | What is it? | 这是什么? |
| 460 | Why they are insisting on supporting of the Hezbollah? | 为什么他们坚持支持真主党? |
| 461 | And Hezbollah is even secondary to the to the Palestinian issue. | 而真主党甚至次要于巴勒斯坦问题。 |
| 462 | Hezbollah is basically a nagging on the side of the Israelis that we have a force. | 真主党基本上是以色列人一边抱怨我们有一支部队。 |
| 463 | That's why the Iranians are keeping them there. | 所以伊朗人才把他们关在那里 |
| 464 | They want to make sure that there is something there to bother Israelis. | 他们希望确保那里有东西困扰以色列人。 |
| 465 | And can you sort of shed a little more insight into historically this antagonism? | 你能更深入地了解一下历史上这种对立吗? |
| 466 | How does Israel fit into this? | 以色列如何参与这项工作? |
| 467 | By proxy, the U.S., why is the U.S. so obsessed with Israel? | 通过代理美国,为什么美国如此迷恋以色列?. |
| 468 | After all, the Islamic Republic for 47 years is death to the United States, | 毕竟,47年来的伊斯兰共和国是美国的死亡, |
| 469 | death to Israel. | 死亡给以色列。 |
| 470 | The United States is a great satan and so forth. | 美国是一个伟大的撒旦等等。 |
| 471 | All of this, we hear all of this. | 所有这一切,我们听到这一切。 |
| 472 | Eventually, that kind of a rhetoric creates some reality. | 最终,这种言论创造了一些现实。 |
| 473 | That's my theory that rhetorics are important. | 这就是我的理论,说辞很重要。 |
| 474 | Rhetorics are dangerous because eventually they may materialize in some unpleasant realities. | 飓风是危险的,因为它们最终可能在某些不愉快的现实中出现。 |
| 475 | And this is exactly the case that it's happened in Iran. | 这正是发生在伊朗的情况。 |
| 476 | I mean, they after all these years that they said death to America, | 我的意思是,他们经过这么多年 他们向美国说死亡, |
| 477 | eventually a regime emerged in the United States with irrational enough | 最终在美国出现了一个政权 已经够不理智了 |
| 478 | to take this seriously and try to eliminate, | 认真对待这个并努力消除, |
| 479 | despite the fact that it's one of those wars that nobody seemed to own it. | 尽管这场战争似乎无人拥有 |
| 480 | Nobody wants to claim it. | 没有人想声称它。 |
| 481 | But it's just a kind of an accidental war, you know. | 但这只是一场意外战争 |
| 482 | They call it the war of choice because they want to give it a kind of a more respectable name. | 他们称它为选择战争,因为他们想给它一种更受尊重的名字. |
| 483 | But it's actually an accidental war. | 但其实是一场意外战争. |
| 484 | Basically, Trump, in a moment of irrationality that it's plenty in his career | 基本上,特朗普,在不合理的时刻, 在他的职业生涯中, |
| 485 | and gets worse by day, | 日复一日地变得更糟 |
| 486 | decided that you can bring this American armada to the Persian Gulf and attack Iran, | 决定你可以把美国军舰带到波斯湾 攻击伊朗 |
| 487 | and Iran is going to collapse overnight and prove to be completely wrong. | 伊朗将一夜之间崩溃, |
| 488 | So that's what I say. | 所以,这就是我说的。 |
| 489 | There is no, there was very difficult actually, even for the specialists, | 没有,实际上非常困难 即使对于专家, |
| 490 | very difficult to figure out why the Islamic Republic, | 很难理解为什么伊斯兰共和国, |
| 491 | what are the actual foundations of its strength. | 其实力的实际基础是什么? |
| 492 | Those that claim that, you know, it's all Ali Khamenei, | 那些声称,你知道, 这是所有阿里·哈梅内伊, |
| 493 | just eliminate him and the Islamic Republic collapse. | 只要除掉他,伊斯兰共和国就会崩溃 |
| 494 | They were, they proved to be wrong. | 他们被证明是错的 |
| 495 | Now, as far as your point is concerned, I don't think | 至于你的观点,我不认为 |
| 496 | that they are going to abandon, particularly the Hezbollah. | 他们将要放弃,特别是真主党。 |
| 497 | They may have abandoned their equivalent, Ashd al-Sharbi in Lebanon, in Iraq. | 他们可能已经放弃了在黎巴嫩的Ashd al-Sharbi在伊拉克的同等地位。 |
| 498 | No, we don't know how much they're supporting the Ashd al-Sharbi. | 不,我们不知道他们支持阿什德·沙比 |
| 499 | These are all behind the screen. | 这些都是幕后。 |
| 500 | We're behind, behind the curtain. | 我们落后了 幕后 |
| 501 | We don't know what's going on there. | 我们不知道那里发生了什么。 |
| 502 | And we hear that there is very close ties with the Hezbollah. | 我们听说与真主党有着非常密切的联系。 |
| 503 | There are much marriages even between the members of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran | 伊朗革命卫队成员之间也有很多婚姻 |
| 504 | and the Hezbollah. | 和真主党。 |
| 505 | So this goes beyond, this was kind of a family ties perhaps. | 因此,这不仅仅是一种家庭联系。 |
| 506 | So they cannot easily give it up. | 因此,他们不能轻易放弃。 |
| 507 | And they insist on it because they would think that the United States is not in a position | 他们坚持这样下去 因为他们认为美国没有地位 |
| 508 | to engage in a war or continuation of a war. | 参与战争或继续战争。 |
| 509 | Whether they are right or wrong, I don't know. | 不管他们是对是错,我不知道。 |
| 510 | Maybe they are wrong. | 也许他们错了。 |
| 511 | And it reaches a stage that if they're going to play too much into this game, | 到了一个舞台 如果他们要玩太多这个游戏, |
| 512 | they may be the losers, not the winners. | 他们可能是失败者,而不是胜利者。 |
| 513 | But they seem to use this as an option. | 但他们似乎利用这个选择。 |
| 514 | I mean, as far as yesterday or the day before yesterday and the exchange of the | 我的意思是,到昨天或前天 和交换 |
| 515 | hostilities with the Israelis, it seems to me they did it because they think that there is | 在我看来,他们这样做是因为他们认为 |
| 516 | some benefit in the course of their later on negotiations with the United States because | 在后来与美国谈判的过程中,由于 |
| 517 | they want to bring the Hezbollah. | 他们想要带来真主党。 |
| 518 | They don't want the Hezbollah to disappear completely because they lose some kind of | 他们不希望真主党完全消失 因为他们失去了某种 |
| 519 | force closer to Israel in their favor. | 为了他们的利益,迫使他们靠近以色列。 |
| 520 | And they want to keep that as a thorn on the side of the Israelis. | 他们想把这当做以色列人的刺。 |
| 521 | So I guess we can end with this last question, which is, is there a way out? | 所以我想我们可以以最后一个问题结束, 即,有出路吗? |
| 522 | Well, historians can be rather pessimistic and they don't see a very easy way out. | 历史学家可以相当悲观,他们看不到一个非常容易的出路. |
| 523 | I don't see a very easy way out. | 我不觉得有这么简单的出路 |
| 524 | I would like to see. | 我想见识一下 |
| 525 | I would like to wake up in the morning and see that there is some kind of a | 我想在早晨醒来,看到 有某种 |
| 526 | court has emerged between the United States. | 美国之间出现了法院。 |
| 527 | There are certain moves in that direction. | 在这方面有某些步骤。 |
| 528 | The fact that now the American administration is critical of Israel and realizes, as I just | 现在美国政府正在批评以色列 并且意识到,正如我所言 |
| 529 | pointed out, that what they were sold by, you know, let us, the entire enterprise, | 指出,他们被卖掉的东西, 你知道,让我们,整个企业, |
| 530 | let us remove the Islamic Republic from the face of the earth, didn't pay off. | 让我们把伊斯兰共和国从地球的表面清除出来,没有回报。 |
| 531 | You cannot just bomb a country and a country like Iran. | 你不能只是轰炸一个像伊朗这样的国家和一个国家。 |
| 532 | Iran is a very vulnerable country. | 伊朗是一个非常脆弱的国家。 |
| 533 | There is no doubt about it because the resources are limited. | 毫无疑问,这是因为资源有限。 |
| 534 | Iran is vulnerable. | 伊朗是脆弱的。 |
| 535 | But who suffers? | 但谁受苦? |
| 536 | People of Iran who encounter huge inflation, who encounter all the outcome of the war. | 遭遇巨大通货膨胀的伊朗人民,遭遇战争的一切结果. |
| 537 | 1,700 people up by the government of Iran's own statistics of the civilians were killed | 被伊朗政府统计的1700人死亡 |
| 538 | in the course of the hostilities since April. | 4月份以来的敌对行动期间。 |
| 539 | So it's the Iranians who are paying off. | 所以是伊朗人付钱了。 |
| 540 | I hear reports from Tehran. | 我听到德黑兰的报告。 |
| 541 | I hear reports from Iran that people go, | 我听到伊朗的报告 说人们去, |
| 542 | there's a special kind of a flat bread in Iran, which is the, you know, staple of the Iranians. | 伊朗有一种特殊的扁面包, 这是伊朗人的主食。 |
| 543 | 这叫Sangak。 | |
| 544 | It's very actually tasty. | 其实很好吃 |
| 545 | They go to the bakery and they cannot purchase a whole bread. | 他们去面包店 买不到面包 |
| 546 | They purchase half the bread because the prices are so high that they cannot afford it. | 他们购买一半的面包,因为价格太高,买不起。 |
| 547 | This is unbelievable in the circumstances in a country like Iran, which was relatively | 在像伊朗这样的国家里,这是不可思议的。 |
| 548 | to do, even under the Islamic Republic, was, although it was impoverished, now 41 million | 即便在伊斯兰共和国统治下,尽管贫穷,但现在仍有4 100万 |
| 549 | out of 92 million population, that's 50%, of the population of Iran are under the poverty line. | 在9200万人口中,即50%的伊朗人口处于贫困线以下。 |
| 550 | Under poverty line in today's Iran means that you cannot bring food to the table for your own | 今天伊朗的贫困线下 意味着你不能自己把食物带到桌子上 |
| 551 | family of four or five. | 四五个家庭 |
| 552 | Families are small or became small. | 家庭规模小或变小。 |
| 553 | So who is paying the Iranian people? | 那么,谁在付钱给伊朗人民? |
| 554 | But the Islamic Republic, it seems to me, the revolutionary forces and their other | 但伊斯兰共和国,在我看来, 革命力量和他们的其他 |
| 555 | supporters don't care. | 支持者不会在乎的 |
| 556 | They care about just protecting their own people and giving them enough to remain in | 他们关心的只是保护自己的人民 并给他们足够留在 |
| 557 | their support, but they don't care about the rest of the Iranian population, who towards | 他们的支持,但他们不在乎 其他伊朗人口,他们走向 |
| 558 | whom are very hostile. | 他们是非常敌对的。 |
| 559 | Well, I was hoping for a more positive note to end on, but I think that is the reality | 我本来希望有一个更积极的音符结束 但我认为这就是现实 |
| 560 | of the situation that we're in. | 我们的处境 |
| 561 | Okay, let me tell you one positive point. | 好吧,让我告诉你一个积极的点。 |
| 562 | I should be a little bit more positive. | 我应该更积极一点 |
| 563 | I think what eventually, that's not so positive, but what eventually is the real enemy of the | 我认为最终的,那不是那么积极, 但最终是真正的敌人 |
| 564 | Islamic Republic are the economic situation, whether they would be able to overcome | 伊斯兰共和国是经济状况,它们是否能够克服 |
| 565 | the hyperinflation, the lack of the resources, their infrastructure being so badly damaged, | 恶性通货膨胀 缺乏资源 基础设施严重受损 |
| 566 | and survive and bring a certain prosperity to Iran and change direction towards a greater | 并给伊朗带来某种繁荣 并改变方向 |
| 567 | accommodation of the rest of the world, particularly the United States remains to be seen. | 世界其他地区,特别是美国的和解,仍有待观察。 |
| 568 | Maybe a new generation of a more nationalist leadership in Iran, whenever it emerges, maybe | 也许伊朗新一代的民族主义领袖 每当出现的时候 |
| 569 | it's in favor of that kind of a course, rather than a course of supporting the proxies and | 它赞成这种课程,而不是支持代理和 |
| 570 | confrontation with the United States, which is completely useless for Iranians. | 与美国对抗,这对伊朗人完全无用。 |
| 571 | Iranian population, just one note, Iranian population is the most secular, | 伊朗人口,仅一个字, 伊朗人口是最世俗的, |
| 572 | the most pro-Western population in the entire Middle East. | 整个中东最亲西方的人口。 |
| 573 | There is no doubt about it. | 无疑. |
| 574 | If you would ask nine out of ten Iranians, they are all in support of greater involvement | 如果你问10个伊朗人中9个 他们都支持更多参与 |
| 575 | with the rest of the world. | 与诸众生. |
| 576 | They are highly educated. | 他们受过高等教育。 |
| 577 | They produce some of the best technical minds, or in other fields for that matter. | 它们产生一些最好的技术人才,或者在其他领域产生这方面的人才。 |
| 578 | That's what happens. | 即是缘起. |
| 579 | They end up emigrating to the West or somewhere else in the world, | 他们最终移民到西方或世界其他地方, |
| 580 | and abandoning Iran becomes even more impoverished. | 而抛弃伊朗则变得更加贫困。 |
| 581 | I think if there would be a change in that course, and I can see that. | 我认为,如果这一方针有所改变,我可以看到这一点。 |
| 582 | I can see that gradually it's moving in that direction. | 我可以看到,它正逐渐朝着这个方向发展。 |
| 583 | I don't want to brag about myself, but I had an interview some six months ago or longer | 我不想自吹自擂 但我在半年前或更长时间前接受了采访 |
| 584 | about the war. | 关于战争。 |
| 585 | After the first round of the war with the Israelis, I had a piece in which says that | 在与以色列人的第一轮战争之后,我有一个小作品说 |
| 586 | the future of Iran is not in engaging hostility with the rest of the world, but stay within | 伊朗的未来不是与世界其他国家发生敌对,而是留在世界之内。 |
| 587 | its own borders and try to improve the situation of the Iranians inside. | 并努力改善伊朗人内部的状况。 |
| 588 | That had gone viral. | 这已经是病毒了。 |
| 589 | Instagram或Telegram的数十万人正在观看,人们写作 | |
| 590 | to me and say, you know, we see you here and there. | 对我说,你知道,我们在这里和那里看到你。 |
| 591 | So there is an ear to hear that kind of a message. | 因此,有一个耳朵听到这种信息。 |
| 592 | So I'm hopeful that that is going to be the future of Iran, even among the more | 所以,我希望,这将是伊朗的未来, 即使更多 |
| 593 | more ideologically committed revolutionary forces, revolutionary guards. | 在意识形态上更加坚定的革命力量,革命卫兵. |
| 594 | Who are they? | 他们是谁? |
| 595 | We don't know, but we hope that it's going to be a future for them. | 我们不知道,但我们希望能成为他们的未来. |
| 596 | That, I think, is a more positive note that I can put into it. | 我认为,这是一个我可以加进的更积极的方面。 |
| 597 | Great. | 不错 |
| 598 | Well, thank you so much for all your insights and for spending your time with us. | 非常感谢你的洞察力 以及和我们共度时光 |
| 599 | Thank you so much. | 非常感谢 |
| 600 | It's taken. | 被摄. |
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