耶鲁大学社会与自然科学教授Nicholas Christak
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:03 | Good evening to everybody in China. | 晚上好,中国的每一个人。 |
| 0:05 | Good morning to Professor Christakis. | 早上好,克里斯塔基斯教授。 |
| 0:08 | Thank you for joining us. | 谢谢你加入我们。 |
| 0:09 | Good to see everybody. | 很高兴见到大家 |
| 0:11 | My name is Devin Lau | 我叫刘德文 |
| 0:12 | and I'm the Assistant Director for Yale Center Beijing. | 我是耶鲁北京中心助理主任 |
| 0:15 | By way of quick introduction, | 通过快速介绍, |
| 0:17 | Yale Center Beijing was founded in 2014 | 耶鲁中心 北京成立于2014年 |
| 0:19 | as a way to bring the best of Yale to China | 把耶鲁最好的人带到中国 |
| 0:23 | as Yale's only first and only university-wide center | 作为耶鲁大学唯一的第一个 也是唯一的大学中心 |
展开字幕全文（1307 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Good evening to everybody in China. | 晚上好,中国的每一个人。 |
| 2 | Good morning to Professor Christakis. | 早上好,克里斯塔基斯教授。 |
| 3 | Thank you for joining us. | 谢谢你加入我们。 |
| 4 | Good to see everybody. | 很高兴见到大家 |
| 5 | My name is Devin Lau | 我叫刘德文 |
| 6 | and I'm the Assistant Director for Yale Center Beijing. | 我是耶鲁北京中心助理主任 |
| 7 | By way of quick introduction, | 通过快速介绍, |
| 8 | Yale Center Beijing was founded in 2014 | 耶鲁中心 北京成立于2014年 |
| 9 | as a way to bring the best of Yale to China | 把耶鲁最好的人带到中国 |
| 10 | as Yale's only first and only university-wide center | 作为耶鲁大学唯一的第一个 也是唯一的大学中心 |
| 11 | to be located outside of New Haven. | 将位于纽黑文之外。 |
| 12 | And we are especially delighted | 我们特别高兴 |
| 13 | that even now during a time of a global pandemic, | 即使现在在全球大流行的时候 |
| 14 | we're still able to showcase the best | 我们仍然可以展示最好的 |
| 15 | that Yale has to offer to China. | 那耶鲁必须给中国。 |
| 16 | And so we're gonna get started real soon. | 所以我们很快就要开始了 |
| 17 | I just wanted to go over the format real quick. | 我只是想快点看一下格式 |
| 18 | We're gonna do a quick talk of about 30 to 40 minutes | 30到40分钟后我们再谈 |
| 19 | from Professor Christakis | 克里斯塔基斯教授致 |
| 20 | and then we'll open it up to questions. | 然后我们打开它来提问。 |
| 21 | And so please feel free to get those questions ready | 所以请随意准备那些问题 |
| 22 | as you listen to the talk. | 就像你听话一样 |
| 23 | Today, we're also working with Cheers Publishing in China | 今天,我们还在与中国的干杯出版公司合作 |
| 24 | to be able to offer a copy of Blueprint in Chinese | 能够提供中文蓝图副本 |
| 25 | to the first two people who ask a question | 问问题的头两个人 |
| 26 | about the talk today. | 关于今天的谈话。 |
| 27 | So thank you to Cheers Publishing as well | 所以,谢谢你干杯出版 |
| 28 | for working with us to offer those two free books | 与我们合作 提供这两本免费的书 |
| 29 | (原始内容存档于2019-09-31). For the QQA session. | |
| 30 | I'll take the time to introduce Professor Christakis. | 我会花时间介绍克里斯塔基斯教授 |
| 31 | He is Sterling Professor of Social and Natural Science | 他是斯特林社会和自然科学教授 |
| 32 | and he's appointed in many departments, | 他被任命在很多部门, |
| 33 | the Department of Sociology, Medicine, | 社会学、医学、 |
| 34 | Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Biomedical Engineering, | 生态和进化生物学、生物医学工程、 |
| 35 | as well as the School of Management. | 以及管理学院。 |
| 36 | And so as you can tell | 所以,如你所说 |
| 37 | from his very broad range of interest and expertise, | 从他的广泛兴趣和专长, |
| 38 | he is a true Yale-y at heart. | 他是一个真正的耶鲁 -y的心脏。 |
| 39 | He received his bachelor's from Yale, | 他从耶鲁获得了他的学士学位 |
| 40 | an MD and MPH from Harvard, | 哈佛大学的医生和医生, |
| 41 | as well as a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania. | 以及宾夕法尼亚大学博士学位。 |
| 42 | As a social scientist and physician at Yale, | 作为耶鲁大学的社会科学家和医生, |
| 43 | he conducts research in the fields of network science, | 他从事网络科学领域的研究, |
| 44 | biological, biosocial science, | 生物、生物社会科学 |
| 45 | as well as behavioral genetics. | 以及行为遗传学 |
| 46 | And his current work focuses on the interaction | 他目前的工作重点是互动 |
| 47 | between human biology and health and how they are affected | 人类生物学与健康之间的关系及其如何受到影响 |
| 48 | and affects social interactions and social networks. | 并影响社会互动和社会网络。 |
| 49 | He's the director of the Human Nature Lab | 他是人类自然实验室的主任 |
| 50 | as well as the co-director | 以及联合导演 |
| 51 | of the Yale Institute for Network Science. | 耶鲁网络科学学院 |
| 52 | He's been named to many lists, | 他被提名为许多名单, |
| 53 | including Time's 100 Most Influential Thinkers | 包括"时空百大最有影响力的思想家" |
| 54 | as well as Foreign Policy Magazine's similar list. | 以及"外交政策杂志"的类似列表. |
| 55 | And he's the author of over 200 articles and several books, | 他是200多篇文章和几本书的作者, |
| 56 | including the aforementioned Blueprint, | 包括上述蓝图, |
| 57 | as well as his influential book, Connected, | 以及他的有影响力的书, |
| 58 | the Surprising Power of Our Social Networks | 我们社会网络的惊人力量 |
| 59 | and How They Shape Our Lives. | 他们如何塑造我们的生命。 |
| 60 | And so today he's going to be talking to us | 所以今天他要和我们谈谈 |
| 61 | about his most recent book, | 关于他最近的书, |
| 62 | which was just published in English, | 刚刚以英语出版 |
| 63 | I guess about a month or two ago, | 我想大概一两个月前 |
| 64 | Apollo's Arrow, | 阿波罗之箭 |
| 65 | talking about how the current pandemic that we're all in | 谈论我们当前流行的疾病 |
| 66 | has affected the way we interact with each other | 影响了我们互动的方式 |
| 67 | and with society. | 和与社会。 |
| 68 | And so we are absolutely delighted | 我们很高兴 |
| 69 | to have him join us today. | 让他今天加入我们 |
| 70 | For those of you guys that are willing and able, | 对于你们这些愿意和有能力的人, |
| 71 | I would suggest turning on your cameras | 我建议打开你的摄像头 |
| 72 | just so that we can have a little bit more | 那样我们就能多吃一点 |
| 73 | of an actual conversation here | 说到这里 |
| 74 | and not just have Professor Stokas feel like | 不只是斯托卡斯教授觉得 |
| 75 | he's talking to a blank screen. | 他在跟空白屏幕说话 |
| 76 | So that would be appreciated if you'd be able to do that. | 如果你能做到这一点,那会很感激。 |
| 77 | And especially when we go into the Q&A session. | 特别是当我们进入 QQA会议。 |
| 78 | And so thank you again for joining us. | 所以再次感谢你加入我们 |
| 79 | It's nice and early here for us in New Haven. | 在纽黑文,这里很早 |
| 80 | And I'm excited to hear what you have to share. | 我很高兴听到你分享的东西 |
| 81 | Well, thank you, Devin. | 谢谢你 德文 |
| 82 | Thank you very much for that introduction. | 非常感谢你的介绍。 |
| 83 | Thank you all. | 谢谢大家 |
| 84 | I've been to China many times, not recently. | 我去过中国很多次,不是最近 |
| 85 | One of my favorite experiences | 我最喜欢的经历之一 |
| 86 | was taking the cross-country train from Xi'an, | 搭乘西安的越野列车 |
| 87 | where we had gone to see the Terracotta Warriors, | 在那里,我们曾去见 泰拉科塔勇士, |
| 88 | to Ho-Hut in Inner Mongolia, | 到内蒙古呼和浩特, |
| 89 | which was about 24 hours on an old fashioned Chinese train. | 大约24小时的中国老式列车。 |
| 90 | And that was quite an experience for us, I have to say. | 这对我们来说是一个相当的经验, 我必须说。 |
| 91 | Quite a trip, yeah. | 不错的旅行,是的。 |
| 92 | Yes, it's quite a trip. | 是的,这是一个相当的旅程。 |
| 93 | It's not on the fast modern train, it's old style. | 它不在快速现代列车上,是老式风格. |
| 94 | And we also, | 我们也 |
| 95 | I wish I could speak Chinese | 我希望我能说中文 |
| 96 | and speak to you in this language, | 用这种语言对你说话, |
| 97 | but I speak other languages, but not Chinese. | 但我会说其他语言,但不是中文。 |
| 98 | So I'm sorry about that. | 所以,我很抱歉 关于这一点。 |
| 99 | Devin mentioned Blueprint, | 德文提到蓝图 |
| 100 | which has been translated into Chinese, | 翻译为中文 |
| 101 | but Apollo's Arrow will also be appearing | 但阿波罗的箭头也会出现 |
| 102 | in Chinese before long. | 不久后用中文写成 |
| 103 | It just came out in English | 刚用英语出来 |
| 104 | and it'll be out soon in translation. | 很快翻译出来 |
| 105 | Because Devin mentioned Blueprint, | 因为德文提到蓝图, |
| 106 | let me just say something about that at the beginning | 让我在开头说点什么 |
| 107 | and then try to connect the books a little bit. | 然后试着把书连接一下 |
| 108 | So I'm a scientist is my primary identity | 所以,我是一个科学家 是我的主要身份 |
| 109 | and I run a laboratory | 我经营一个实验室 |
| 110 | and we have many divisions in my lab. | 实验室里有很多组织 |
| 111 | We investigate the biology and genetics | 我们调查生物学和遗传学 |
| 112 | of human social interaction. | 人类社会互动 |
| 113 | We do work on artificial intelligence | 我们做人工智能工作 |
| 114 | and how that affects social interaction. | 以及这如何影响社会互动。 |
| 115 | We do public health trials, | 我们做公共卫生试验, |
| 116 | sort of randomized control trials | 某种随机控制试验 |
| 117 | in developing world settings. | 在发展中世界环境中。 |
| 118 | We do lots and lots of different things, | 我们做很多不同的事情, |
| 119 | but every 10 years or so, I also write a book. | 但每十年左右,我也写一本书 |
| 120 | And Blueprint took about 10 years | 蓝图花了十年时间 |
| 121 | and I published it about a year ago | 我大约一年前出版的 |
| 122 | and I was working on the next book, | 我在写下一本书, |
| 123 | which was gonna come in another 10 years. | 10年后就会来 |
| 124 | And I interrupted that to write Apollo's Arrow | 我打断了这个写阿波罗之箭 |
| 125 | in like four months. | 四个月后 |
| 126 | And I wanna tell you a little bit about why. | 我想告诉你一些原因 |
| 127 | So first, the basic idea in Blueprint | 所以首先,蓝图中的基本想法 |
| 128 | and the subtitle for that is | 而副标题是: |
| 129 | the evolutionary origins of a good society | 一个良好社会的进化起源 |
| 130 | is that a natural selection has shaped | 是自然选择的形状 |
| 131 | not just the structure and function of our bodies, | 不只是我们机构的结构和职能, |
| 132 | our bodies, obviously their anatomy and their physiology | 我们的身体,很明显 他们的解剖学和生理学 |
| 133 | has been shaped by our evolution. | 由我们进化而成 |
| 134 | A natural selection has also shaped the structure | 自然选择也塑造了结构 |
| 135 | and function of our minds, | 和我们的大脑功能, |
| 136 | how we think the kind of biases we have, | 我们如何看待这种偏见, |
| 137 | the kind of people we are | 我们这种人 |
| 138 | depends on our evolutionary past. | 取决于我们进化的过去 |
| 139 | But natural selection has also shaped the structure | 但自然选择也塑造了结构 |
| 140 | and function of our societies. | 我们社会的作用。 |
| 141 | So many of the intrinsic properties of society, | 社会的许多内在属性, |
| 142 | for example, our capacity for love | 比如我们的爱能力 |
| 143 | or our capacity for friendship, | 或者我们的友谊能力, |
| 144 | the fact that we form friendships, | 我们形成友谊的事实, |
| 145 | you all take this for granted, | 你们都认为这是理所当然的, |
| 146 | but this is actually a very unusual feature. | 但实际上这是一个非常不寻常的特征。 |
| 147 | Other animals do not form long-term non-reproductive unions | 其他动物不会形成长期的非生殖结合 |
| 148 | to members of their species, but we do. | 但是我们有 |
| 149 | We do it, elephants do it, certain other primates do it, | 我们这样做,大象这样做, 某些其他灵长类这样做, |
| 150 | dolphins and whales do it, | 海豚和鲸鱼都这样 |
| 151 | and that's pretty much it actually. | 其实就是这个意思 |
| 152 | And all those animals independently evolve | 和所有这些动物独立进化 |
| 153 | the capacity for friendship. | 友谊的能力。 |
| 154 | And we also do other things like we cooperate. | 我们也做其他的事情,比如我们的合作。 |
| 155 | We help strangers who are unrelated to us. | 我们帮助与我们无关的陌生人。 |
| 156 | This doesn't happen in other animals, but we do it also. | 这在其他动物中不会发生,但我们也这样做。 |
| 157 | So we have all these qualities you see, | 所以,我们有所有这些品质 你看到, |
| 158 | love and friendship and cooperation and teaching. | 爱与友谊 合作与教导 |
| 159 | We teach each other things. | 我们互相教书 |
| 160 | This is astonishing. | 这是惊人的。 |
| 161 | It's extremely rare in the animal kingdom | 在动物王国非常罕见 |
| 162 | that one animal will pay a price, | 一个动物会付出代价, |
| 163 | expend time to teach another animal something. | 花时间教别的东西。 |
| 164 | So Blueprint was about our innate social order, | 所以,蓝图是关于我们固有的社会秩序, |
| 165 | the fact that the way we organize ourselves | 我们的组织方式 |
| 166 | has certain fundamental, enduring, universal features. | 具有某些基本、持久、普遍的特点。 |
| 167 | Well, what happened in the time of the pandemic? | 那么,在流行的时候发生了什么? |
| 168 | You know, all those features were put under pressure. | 你知道,所有这些特征 都被压力。 |
| 169 | And so it was very interesting to me to see the ways | 因此,我非常有趣 看到的方式 |
| 170 | in which in some sense, the great force of a deadly germ | 从某种意义上说 致命细菌的强大力量 |
| 171 | was meeting the enduring reality | 满足了永恒的现实 |
| 172 | of our evolved social nature, right? | 我们进化的社会性质,对不对? |
| 173 | We have this way of living and then bang, | 我们有这种生活方式 然后爆炸, |
| 174 | this deadly germ is affecting it. | 这个致命的细菌正在影响着它 |
| 175 | So I had obviously, as Devin said, I'm also a physician. | 所以我显然,正如德文所说, 我也是一名医生。 |
| 176 | I had spent many years as a hospice doctor | 我做了多年的救护医生 |
| 177 | taking care of people who are dying. | 照顾那些正在死去的人 |
| 178 | And I had been studying epidemics and contagion | 我一直在研究流行病和传染 |
| 179 | and social contagion, as Devin mentioned, | 正如德文提到的那样, |
| 180 | with another book and other work that we'd done. | 还有另一本书和我们做过的其他作品 |
| 181 | So I thought it was a good opportunity. | 所以我觉得这是一个很好的机会。 |
| 182 | Plus I was stuck at home, | 再说我被困在家里了 |
| 183 | like all of you were beginning in January 24th. | 就像你们从1月24日开始 |
| 184 | You know, I was going a little bit crazy. | 你知道,我是有点疯狂。 |
| 185 | So I figured, okay, what can I do? | 所以我想,好吧,我能怎么办? |
| 186 | I think I'll write a book about the pandemic. | 我想我会写一本关于流行病的书。 |
| 187 | And that's why you have this thing now already. | 这就是为什么你已经有了这个东西了。 |
| 188 | All right, let me tell you, | 好吧,让我告诉你, |
| 189 | oh, and let me tell you one other thing | 哦,让我告诉你一件事 |
| 190 | and then I'll say a few remarks | 然后我会说几句话 |
| 191 | and we can have some questions. | 我们可以有一些问题。 |
| 192 | I have for a very long time had a group of Chinese scientists | 很久以来,我一直有一群中国科学家 |
| 193 | that I collaborate with based in Hong Kong primarily. | 我主要与香港合作 |
| 194 | So Jianmin Jia and Jason Jia, Jason was a Yale alum, | 所以詹敏佳和杰森佳 杰森是耶鲁校友 |
| 195 | and also Xinlu. | 还有新鲁 |
| 196 | And we had been working on using phone data from China | 我们一直在利用中国的电话数据 |
| 197 | to sort of a big data project | 以排序大数据项目 |
| 198 | to understand features of human social organization. | 了解人类社会组织的特点。 |
| 199 | So for example, we had records | 例如,我们有记录 |
| 200 | using anonymized phone data. | 使用匿名电话数据。 |
| 201 | Obviously we don't know who the people are | 显然,我们不知道 谁是人民 |
| 202 | and we weren't listening to their conversations. | 我们没有听他们的谈话 |
| 203 | We just know who was calling who. | 我们只知道是谁在给谁打电话 |
| 204 | We could map the social networks | 我们可以绘制社交网络地图 |
| 205 | and we knew where the pings were, where the phones were. | 我们知道电话在哪儿 |
| 206 | And we use this data after the Chinese earthquake | 我们使用这个数据 在中国地震之后 |
| 207 | from what it was at 10 or 15 years ago | 从10年或15年前的情况来看 |
| 208 | to study when you have this sudden stress from an earthquake, | 当你突然受到地震压力时 |
| 209 | who do people call? | 谁叫? |
| 210 | How does the earthquake change social organization | 地震如何改变社会组织 |
| 211 | and how does social organization, | 社会组织如何, |
| 212 | how does your social network affect your ability | 社交网络如何影响你的能力 |
| 213 | to cope with the shock of an earthquake? | 应对地震的冲击? |
| 214 | And so we'd been using the data to do some projects. | 所以我们一直在利用这些数据来做一些项目。 |
| 215 | In fact, that paper was just accepted now years later. | 事实上,该文件在几年前刚刚被接受。 |
| 216 | And we'd also been using the data | 我们也一直在使用数据 |
| 217 | to study economic development. | 研究经济发展。 |
| 218 | So for example, when China builds a high-speed rail line | 例如,当中国建设高速铁路线时 |
| 219 | between two cities, | 两座城市之间, |
| 220 | it makes certain social interactions easier. | 这使得某些社会互动变得容易。 |
| 221 | Does that affect economic development | 这是否影响到经济发展? |
| 222 | along the corridor or not? | 沿着走廊还是没有? |
| 223 | So we had this prior collaboration, | 所以我们之前合作过 |
| 224 | my laboratory did with these Chinese laboratories. | 我和这些中国实验室合作过 |
| 225 | And when coronavirus struck in, | 当日冕病毒侵入时, |
| 226 | well, obviously at the end of 2019, | 显然在2019年底 |
| 227 | but in particular by January of 2020, | 特别是到2020年1月, |
| 228 | my colleagues called me up and they said, | 我的同事打电话给我 他们说 |
| 229 | look, we have these data, | 听着 我们有这些数据 |
| 230 | we should study what's happening with a pandemic. | 我们应该研究一下流行性疾病的情况 |
| 231 | And so we began a project in the middle of January | 所以我们在1月中旬开始了一个项目 |
| 232 | to study the coronavirus. | 研究日冕病毒。 |
| 233 | And we had data, for example, | 我们有数据,例如, |
| 234 | on the movement of people through Wuhan | 关于人员在武汉通行 |
| 235 | from January 1st to January 24th. | 从1月1日到1月24日。 |
| 236 | We had information on 11 million people | 我们有1100万人的资料 |
| 237 | transiting through Wuhan | 在武汉过境 |
| 238 | and spreading out through all of China. | 传遍整个中国 |
| 239 | And then we got from the Chinese CDC, | 然后我们从中国疾控中心得到 |
| 240 | we got coronavirus cases | 我们有冠状病毒病例 |
| 241 | as they were occurring throughout the rest of the country. | 因为它发生在全国其他地方。 |
| 242 | And we were able to show in a paper | 我们得以在报纸上展示 |
| 243 | that was published in Nature in April | 4月在《自然》上发表 |
| 244 | that the movement of people perfectly predicted | 人的行动 完美预测 |
| 245 | the timing, location and intensity of the pandemic | 大流行病的时间、地点和强度 |
| 246 | throughout the rest of China through the end of February. | 整个中国直到2月底 |
| 247 | And it was very exciting for me | 对我来说很刺激 |
| 248 | because of course you guys are on the other side of the world, | 因为你们当然站在世界的另一边 |
| 249 | I would work all day and send it to my Chinese colleagues. | 我会整天工作 寄给我的中国同事 |
| 250 | They would then work all their day and send it back to me. | 然后他们整天工作 寄给我 |
| 251 | When I went to sleep, I woke up. | 我睡觉的时候 我醒来了 |
| 252 | It was being a bit like being a young graduate student again. | 这有点像 再次成为一个年轻的研究生。 |
| 253 | We weren't sleeping, we were working nonstop. | 我们没有睡觉, 我们不停地工作。 |
| 254 | We started working on the project | 我们开始研究这个项目了 |
| 255 | sort of the third week in January. | 大约是1月的第三周。 |
| 256 | We submitted it on February the 18th. | 我们是在2月18日提交的 |
| 257 | We submitted the paper to the journal | 我们把论文提交给了杂志 |
| 258 | and it was accepted and published in April. | 并于4月被接受并发表. |
| 259 | But the point was because of that collaboration, | 但重点是因为合作 |
| 260 | I was paying very careful attention | 我非常仔细的注意 |
| 261 | to what was happening in China. | 对中国发生的一切。 |
| 262 | Therefore on January 24th, | 因此,在1月24日, |
| 263 | when your government promulgated orders | 当你的政府发布命令时 |
| 264 | that closed off management orders | 关闭管理订单 |
| 265 | that basically put 930 million Chinese | 基本上9.3亿中国元 |
| 266 | in some form of home confinement on January 24th. | 在1月24日的某种形式的家庭禁闭。 |
| 267 | And that really got my attention. | 这真的引起了我的注意。 |
| 268 | I mean, the Chinese people, | 我的意思是,中国人民, |
| 269 | certainly the Chinese government | 当然是中国政府 |
| 270 | had determined that this virus was sufficiently serious | 已经确定这种病毒足够严重 |
| 271 | that they put a billion people at home. | 他们把十亿人 在家里。 |
| 272 | It was like detonating a social nuclear weapon, right? | 这就像引爆 社会核武器,对不对? |
| 273 | That's how they said, | 他们说, |
| 274 | oh my God, this is really a strong threat. | 哦,我的上帝, 这是一个真正的强烈的威胁。 |
| 275 | And so when that happened, | 所以当事情发生时 |
| 276 | I decided to turn about half of my laboratory's attention | 我决定把实验室一半的注意力都转过来 |
| 277 | over to the virus. | 转到病毒。 |
| 278 | And then by the end of February, | 然后到二月底, |
| 279 | I had turned like all of my laboratory's attention | 我转身就像我所有实验室的注意力 |
| 280 | over to the virus because it was very clear to me | 说到病毒是因为我很清楚 |
| 281 | that this was gonna be a serious global pandemic, | 这会是一个严重的全球大流行, |
| 282 | you know, once in a century event. | 你知道,一次在一个世纪的事件。 |
| 283 | Now the Chinese of course have done exceptionally well | 现在中国人当然做得特别好 |
| 284 | in coping with the virus, | 为了对付病毒, |
| 285 | but you know, you have an authoritarian government | 但你知道,你有一个专制政府 |
| 286 | and you have a collectivist culture. | 你有一个集体主义的文化。 |
| 287 | So you had certain strengths that made it easier for you | 所以,你有一定的长处 让你更容易 |
| 288 | in some ways to cope with the virus. | 以某种方式应对病毒 |
| 289 | But in the United States has its own strengths. | 但在美国,它有自己的优势。 |
| 290 | You know, we're a very rich country. | 你知道,我们是一个非常富有的国家。 |
| 291 | We have very open communication. | 我们有非常公开的沟通。 |
| 292 | So, you know, some of the issues at the beginning | 所以,你知道,有些问题 在一开始 |
| 293 | that happened in China where information was suppressed, | 发生在中国的信息被压制, |
| 294 | I thought would not occur in the United States, | 我以为在美国不会发生 |
| 295 | but of course they did occur in the United States. | 当然,它们发生在美国。 |
| 296 | We had a government that, you know, | 我们有一个政府,你知道, |
| 297 | was not being honest with the people | 不对人民诚实 |
| 298 | about what was happening. | 关于发生了什么。 |
| 299 | And as I talk about in the book, | 正如我在书中谈到的, |
| 300 | there was an equal temptation to suppress information here. | 这里同样有压制信息的诱惑 |
| 301 | Nevertheless, we had certain strengths in the United States, | 然而,我们在美国有某些优势, |
| 302 | our scientists, our wealth, our openness, | 我们的科学家,我们的财富,我们的开放, |
| 303 | which we could have deployed, I think better | 我们本来可以部署的,我觉得更好 |
| 304 | in our fight against the virus. | 在我们与病毒的斗争中 |
| 305 | And, you know, we have not done so well | 而且,你知道,我们没有做这么好 |
| 306 | in my view against the virus. | 以我的观点反对病毒 |
| 307 | So let me just say a few things about the virus. | 所以,让我说几句话 关于病毒。 |
| 308 | Now, many of you probably know, | 现在,很多人可能知道, |
| 309 | I had a Chinese graduate student | 我有一个中国研究生 |
| 310 | and she very kindly took a copy of my book back to Wuhan | 她很客气地把我的书抄回武汉 |
| 311 | and photographed it at the Huanan Seafood Market, | 在华南海鲜市场拍下 |
| 312 | which is one of my most precious possessions now, | 这是我现在最珍贵的财产之一 |
| 313 | a copy of Apollo's arrow back where the story begins. | 阿波罗箭头的复制品 故事开始的地方 |
| 314 | So you're probably familiar with lots of these things, | 你可能很熟悉这些东西 |
| 315 | but let me just summarize | 但让我总结一下 |
| 316 | a couple of basic pieces of information | 几条基本信息 |
| 317 | and then share with you a few observations | 然后与你们分享一些观察 |
| 318 | about pandemics in general | 有关一般大流行病的 |
| 319 | and then open it up for some questions. | 然后打开一些问题。 |
| 320 | So what you have to understand | 所以你必须明白 |
| 321 | is that something very unusual has happened to us | 我们之间发生了很不寻常的事 |
| 322 | in the life of our species. | 在我们人类的生命中 |
| 323 | We happen to be alive | 我们碰巧还活着 |
| 324 | when a new serious global pathogen | 新的严重全球病原体 |
| 325 | has been introduced into our species. | 已经引入我们的物种。 |
| 326 | And this virus is now gonna circulate among us forever. | 这个病毒现在将永远在我们中间传播。 |
| 327 | This virus is never gonna go away. | 这种病毒永远不会消失 |
| 328 | If in fact, there were no vaccine technology available, | 如果真的没有疫苗技术 |
| 329 | it would not be clear that the Chinese response | 不清楚中国的反应 |
| 330 | was the right response | 正确的反应 |
| 331 | because the virus has not been eradicated. | 因为病毒还没有被消灭 |
| 332 | The virus is still there and will come back. | 病毒还在,会回来的 |
| 333 | So if in fact, there was no vaccine available, | 所以如果真的没有疫苗 |
| 334 | all China would have done is postpone the inevitable, | 所有中国都会推迟 不可避免的, |
| 335 | which is the affliction of the population. | 那是人们的灾难。 |
| 336 | It's the fact that we happen to be alive | 我们碰巧还活着 |
| 337 | in the 21st century at a moment | 在21世纪的瞬间 |
| 338 | when this pandemic struck, | 当这种流行病流行时, |
| 339 | as previous pandemics have struck | 如以前流行的流行病 |
| 340 | for hundreds or thousands of years, | 几百年或数千年, |
| 341 | we were alive at a moment | 我们刚刚还活着 |
| 342 | when we could develop a countermeasure, a vaccine. | 当我们可以开发一种对抗措施,一种疫苗。 |
| 343 | And that's one of the reasons it was so effective | 这就是它如此有效的原因之一 |
| 344 | or sensible to impose non-pharmaceutical interventions, | 或明智地施加非药物干预, |
| 345 | to impose these physical distancing measures | * 强制实施这些有形分离措施; |
| 346 | to postpone the epidemic until such time | 将流行病推迟到这样的时候 |
| 347 | as a vaccine is available. | 作为一种疫苗。 |
| 348 | And implementing that strategy will avoid a lot of death. | 执行这一战略将避免大量死亡。 |
| 349 | Anyway, so we happen to be alive like our ancestors | 总之,我们恰好像我们的祖先一样活着 |
| 350 | at a time when this once in a century event was taking place. | 那时这个世纪的一次事件正在发生 |
| 351 | And from the point of view of the virus, | 从病毒的角度来看 |
| 352 | there's a debate in science | 科学有争论 |
| 353 | about whether viruses are living things or not. | 关于病毒是否是活的东西。 |
| 354 | I'm sort of in the camp that thinks | 我有点在营地里想 |
| 355 | that viruses are living things for various reasons. | 因为各种原因,病毒是活的 |
| 356 | But regardless of that debate, | 但无论辩论结果如何 |
| 357 | the virus is acting like any other living thing would act. | 病毒就像其他生物一样 |
| 358 | It is finding untouched terrain and it is exploiting it. | 它正在寻找未触及的地形,并正在利用它。 |
| 359 | Just like if you release rats onto the Island of New Zealand | 就像你释放老鼠到新西兰岛一样 |
| 360 | when the Maori's settled New Zealand 1,000 years ago, | 当毛利人在1000年前定居新西兰时 |
| 361 | they brought rats with them. | 他们带了老鼠来 |
| 362 | There had been no rats for 100 million years in New Zealand | 新西兰一亿年来没有老鼠 |
| 363 | and the rats just took over. | 和老鼠刚刚接管。 |
| 364 | Just like that, the virus unleashed into our species. | 就这样,病毒传入我们的物种。 |
| 365 | Once it escaped immediate control, | 一旦它逃脱直接控制, |
| 366 | if it had been possible to immediately control the virus | 如果能够立即控制病毒 |
| 367 | back in November or December in Wuhan, | 11月或12月在武汉 |
| 368 | we might have escaped. | 我们可能逃走了 |
| 369 | But once it was on the loose, | 但一旦它松开, |
| 370 | then the virus is just gonna keep spreading. | 然后病毒就会继续扩散 |
| 371 | And that's known in evolutionary biology | 这在进化生物学中是众所周知的 |
| 372 | as an ecological release, okay? | 作为生态释放,好吗? |
| 373 | It has new terrain. | 它有新的地形。 |
| 374 | And we, our bodies are that terrain for this virus. | 而我们,我们的身体就是这种病毒的地形。 |
| 375 | And as I said, it's gonna be with us forever. | 正如我所说 它会永远和我们在一起 |
| 376 | Now it's quite a bad pathogen actually. | 现在它实际上是一个相当糟糕的病原体。 |
| 377 | Now 10 months in, we know a lot about the virus. | 10个月后,我们了解病毒。 |
| 378 | It kills between 0.5 and 0.8% of the people | 造成0.5%至0.8%的人死亡 |
| 379 | who are infected with it. | 谁是感染它。 |
| 380 | Now that may not sound like a lot, | 这听起来可能不太像 |
| 381 | but that's actually pretty bad. | 但其实很糟 |
| 382 | It's not as bad as smallpox. | 不如天花为恶. |
| 383 | It's not as bad as bubonic plague. | 不如布onic瘟疫. |
| 384 | It's not as bad as cholera. | 不如霍乱. |
| 385 | That's true. | 没错 |
| 386 | But it's much worse than influenza | 但比流感还严重 |
| 387 | and it's much worse than chickenpox | 比鸡肉还糟 |
| 388 | and it's much worse than other pathogens. | 它比其他病原体还糟糕 |
| 389 | If you get symptoms from the disease, | 如果你有病症的症状 |
| 390 | because about half the people do not get symptoms, | 因为大约一半的人没有症状, |
| 391 | if you get symptoms from the disease, | 如果你有病的症状 |
| 392 | you have to double the numbers I just gave you | 你得把我刚才给你的数字翻一番 |
| 393 | and the so-called case fatality rate | 和所谓的病例死亡率 |
| 394 | is between one and 1.6%. | 在1%到1.6%之间。 |
| 395 | So let's say about 1% of people who get this infection | 这么说吧,1%的感染者 |
| 396 | and get symptoms from it will die. | 并获得症状 从它会死。 |
| 397 | And of course, as you all know, it varies by age. | 当然,你们都知道,它因年龄而异。 |
| 398 | So young people are, if they get it, | 所以,年轻人是, 如果他们得到它, |
| 399 | are less likely to die than older people. | 与老年人相比,死亡的可能性较小。 |
| 400 | However, I mean, this is less relevant to you in China | 不过,我意思是,这在中国对你们来说不太重要 |
| 401 | because you have such low prevalence of the virus. | 因为你的病毒流行率很低 |
| 402 | I wanna emphasize that that does not mean | 我想强调,这并不意味着 |
| 403 | young people should be unconcerned | 年轻人应该无忧无虑 |
| 404 | because death is unlikely in young people from any cause. | 因为任何原因的年轻人都不太可能死亡。 |
| 405 | In other words, it is true that if you're 20 years old | 换句话说 如果你20岁 |
| 406 | and you get the virus, you have a one in 3,000 | 你得到病毒,你有一个在3000 |
| 407 | to one in 10,000 chance of dying. | 一万分之一的死亡机会 |
| 408 | But if you're 20 years old, | 但如果你20岁 |
| 409 | you have a very low chance of dying of anything. | 你死的机会很小 |
| 410 | So actually getting the virus | 所以,实际上得到的病毒 |
| 411 | substantially increases your risk of death. | 大大增加你的死亡风险。 |
| 412 | So it's not something to joke about. | 所以这不是什么 开玩笑。 |
| 413 | As a parent, I'm very relieved | 作为父母,我很放心 |
| 414 | that the virus spares the young, | 病毒让年轻人幸免于难 |
| 415 | but as a young person, it's still bad to get the virus. | 但作为一个年轻人, 仍然不好得到病毒。 |
| 416 | Anyway, the mortality of the virus varies by age | 总之,病毒的死亡率因年龄而异 |
| 417 | and it's a reasonably deadly virus. | 这是致命的病毒 |
| 418 | About 1% of people who get symptoms from it will die. | 大约1%的有症状的人会死亡. |
| 419 | Another important parameter, | 另一个重要参数, |
| 420 | which most of you also probably know | 你们中的大部分人可能都知道 |
| 421 | is something known as the R0, the R sub zero, | 被称为R0,R子0, |
| 422 | 不是N -A -U -G | |
| 423 | And so the term R sub zero is called R0 | 所以R子零这个术语叫做R0 |
| 424 | among epidemiologists, | 在流行病学家中, |
| 425 | which captures the infectiousness of the virus. | 它捕捉到病毒的传染性 |
| 426 | And this parameter, | 而这个参数, |
| 427 | this is an intrinsic property of the virus, | 这是病毒的内在属性 |
| 428 | just like the lethality. | 就像致命性一样 |
| 429 | Just because the virus kills 1% of people, | 只是因为病毒杀死了1%的人, |
| 430 | if we take care of them with modern medicine, | 如果我们用现代医学来照顾他们 |
| 431 | maybe less than that will die, | 可能比那还要少, |
| 432 | but the virus still has an intrinsic lethality. | 但病毒仍然具有内在的致命性 |
| 433 | There's also the virus has an intrinsic communicability | 还有病毒有内在的交流能力 |
| 434 | and that number, the R0 is between 2.5 and 3.5, | 而这个数字,R0在2.5到3.5之间, |
| 435 | let's say about three. | 让我们说三个。 |
| 436 | That means for each case of the virus | 也就是说每个病毒病例 |
| 437 | in a non-immune population | 非免疫人口 |
| 438 | of humans that are interacting naturally, | 自然互动的人类, |
| 439 | each case of the virus would cause three new cases. | 每例病毒都会导致3个新病例。 |
| 440 | So if you take those, | 所以,如果你拿这些, |
| 441 | and those are the two basic parameters about the virus. | 这些是病毒的两个基本参数。 |
| 442 | There are many other interesting features. | 还有许多其他有趣的特征。 |
| 443 | This is a very sneaky virus, | 这是一个非常狡猾的病毒, |
| 444 | it has other interesting features, | 它还有其他有趣的特征, |
| 445 | but if you take those two parameters | 但是如果你拿这两个参数 |
| 446 | and you plot them on a graph | 你用图表描绘他们, |
| 447 | and you look at all the respiratory pandemics | 你看所有的呼吸道传染病 |
| 448 | from the last hundred years, | 过去一百年, |
| 449 | the 1918 pandemic, | 1918年的流行病, |
| 450 | so you have lethality and communicability, | 所以你有杀伤力和沟通能力, |
| 451 | the 1918 pandemic would be up here, | 1918年的大流行会在这里, |
| 452 | both the most lethal and the most communicable. | 最致命和最能沟通的 |
| 453 | The 2009 H1N1 pandemic would be down here. | 2009年的H1N1大流行将出现在这里. |
| 454 | It was a pandemic, but people just got the common cold, | 那是个大流行 但人们都感冒了 |
| 455 | so nobody really remembers it. | 所以没人记得它 |
| 456 | It wasn't very serious, it wasn't deadly. | 不太严重,不是致命的 |
| 457 | The 1957 pandemic would be in the middle. | 1957年的流行病将处于中间。 |
| 458 | That was the previous second worst pandemic. | 这是前两次最严重的流行病。 |
| 459 | It began in Hong Kong, | 从香港开始 |
| 460 | actually in similar circumstances as this one. | 实际上,在类似的情况下,这个。 |
| 461 | And it killed about 110,000 Americans, | 它杀死了大约11万美国人, |
| 462 | which today would be 220,000 Americans. | 今天是22万美国人 |
| 463 | And I think, I can't remember the numbers, | 我想,我不记得数字了, |
| 464 | it's in the book, | 在书里 |
| 465 | it may have killed 10% of the people in Hong Kong, | 香港有10%的人因此丧生 |
| 466 | something like that. | 类似的东西。 |
| 467 | That number seems high to me right now, | 这数字对我来说是很高的, |
| 468 | but it was a very serious pandemic. | 但它是一个非常严重的流行病。 |
| 469 | That was 57. | 这是57。 |
| 470 | 这种流行病,COVID-19, | |
| 471 | and 57 was the previous second worst pandemic. | 57是前第二大大流行病。 |
| 472 | This pandemic, COVID-19, | 这一大流行病,COVID-19, |
| 473 | is the second worst respiratory pandemic | 是第二严重的呼吸道疾病 |
| 474 | we will have had in a hundred years. | 一百年后我们就会有 |
| 475 | So it's a serious problem. | 所以这是一个严重的问题。 |
| 476 | Now, despite the fact that vaccines have been invented | 现在,尽管疫苗已经发明了 |
| 477 | and more will be invented, | 并创造更多, |
| 478 | and we're very lucky that they were invented, | 我们很幸运他们被发明了 |
| 479 | we are still, in my opinion, | 依我看,我们还是... |
| 480 | at the end of the beginning of this pandemic, | 在这种流行病的开始, |
| 481 | not at the beginning of the end. | 不是在结尾的开头。 |
| 482 | Unfortunately, we still have to endure a fair amount | 很不幸,我们还得忍受相当的量 |
| 483 | as a global community with respect to this pandemic. | 作为全球社会对这一大流行病的关注。 |
| 484 | Because the vaccines which are being approved right now, | 因为现在批准的疫苗 |
| 485 | and more will be approved, | 将核准更多, |
| 486 | will take time to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses. | 制造数亿剂需要时间 |
| 487 | And to distribute, | 为了分发 |
| 488 | many of the vaccines require something known as a cold chain. | 许多疫苗都需要一种所谓的冷链 |
| 489 | The two RNA vaccines need to be held | 需要保存两种RNA疫苗 |
| 490 | at something like minus 80 degrees. | 大约零下80度 |
| 491 | You need very special freezers | 你需要特别的冰柜 |
| 492 | from the moment of manufacture to the moment of injection. | 从制造到注射 |
| 493 | And many countries don't have that type of a procedure | 很多国家没有这种程序 |
| 494 | to keep something cold all the time | 一直冷着的东西 |
| 495 | as it moves from place to place. | 随处移动 |
| 496 | And not only will we have to invent the vaccine, | 我们不仅要发明疫苗, |
| 497 | which we've done, we have to manufacture the vaccine, | 我们必须制造疫苗, |
| 498 | we have to distribute the vaccine, | 我们必须分发疫苗, |
| 499 | and we have to persuade people to take the vaccine. | 我们必须说服人们接种疫苗 |
| 500 | And so I think that's gonna take some time, | 所以我认为这需要一些时间, |
| 501 | maybe as long as a year to get through all of those steps. | 也许要等一年才能走完这些步骤 |
| 502 | And we have to get at least 50% of the people vaccinated | 我们至少要让50%的人接种疫苗 |
| 503 | before we reach something known as herd immunity. | 在达到所谓的群免疫之前 |
| 504 | Do you guys know what herd immunity is? | 你们知道什么是畜牧豁免吗? |
| 505 | You probably do. | 你也许知道。 |
| 506 | Probably the Chinese newspapers are covering this nonstop. | 可能是中国报纸在报道这件事 |
| 507 | You don't know what herd immunity, okay. | 你不知道什么是畜牧豁免,好吗? |
| 508 | Herd immunity is a principle from infectious disease, | 畜群免疫是预防传染病的一项原则, |
| 509 | which is the fact that a population of people | 事实上,人口众多, |
| 510 | can be immune to a condition, | 可以免于某种情况, |
| 511 | even if not everyone within the population is immune. | 即使不是所有人口都免疫 |
| 512 | For example, consider measles. | 例如,考虑麻疹。 |
| 513 | If you vaccinate 96% of the people for measles, | 如果你为96%的人接种麻疹疫苗 |
| 514 | if one of the people you haven't vaccinated gets measles, | 如果你没有接种疫苗的人之一得了麻疹 |
| 515 | they really can't spread it to anyone | 他们真的不能传播给任何人 |
| 516 | because most of the people they encounter are vaccinated. | 因为他们遇到的大多数人都接种了疫苗。 |
| 517 | So it's as if you have 100% of the people being safe, | 看来你百分之百的人都安全了 |
| 518 | even though you haven't vaccinated 100%. | 尽管你没有百分之百接种疫苗 |
| 519 | You've just vaccinated 96%. | 你刚刚接种了96%的疫苗 |
| 520 | Now, measles is a very infectious disease. | 现在,麻疹是一种非常传染病。 |
| 521 | And so you have to have a very high, | 所以,你必须有一个非常高, |
| 522 | in fact, I think the most infectious disease we know, | 事实上,我认为我们所知道的最传染病, |
| 523 | it's R0 is between 16 and 18. | R0在16到18岁之间 |
| 524 | For every case of measles, | 每一个麻疹病例, |
| 525 | you get 16 new cases of measles, it's unbelievable. | 你会得到16个新的麻疹病例, 这是难以置信的。 |
| 526 | So you need a very high level. | 所以,你需要一个非常高的水平。 |
| 527 | Your intuition should be, | 你的直觉应该是, |
| 528 | you need a very high level of vaccination | 您需要很高水平的接种疫苗 |
| 529 | before you prevent outbreaks of measles. | 在预防麻疹爆发之前 |
| 530 | That's why the herd immunity threshold is at very high. | 所以群豁免门槛非常高. |
| 531 | What's the minimum percentage you need to vaccinate | 接种疫苗的最低百分比是多少? |
| 532 | before things can't break out. | 在事情不能爆发之前 |
| 533 | On the other hand, something like seasonal flu, | 另一方面,像季节性流感 |
| 534 | ordinary flu, it's R0 is 1.5. | 普通流感,这是R0是1.5。 |
| 535 | For each case of the flu, you get one and a half new cases. | 每一次流感,你就会有1.5个新病例 |
| 536 | And that's why you can vaccinate, | 这就是为什么你可以接种, |
| 537 | let's say 30% of the population. | 假设30%的人口。 |
| 538 | And that's enough to stop an epidemic of the flu. | 这足以阻止流感的流行。 |
| 539 | The formula for computing this is R sub zero minus one | 计算公式是 R 子 0 减去 1 |
| 540 | over R sub zero. | 超过R子零。 |
| 541 | You take the infectiousness of the pathogen, | 你接受病原体的传染性 |
| 542 | you subtract one and you divide it by the infectiousness | 你减去一个,你把它除以传染性 |
| 543 | of the pathogen. | 的病原体。 |
| 544 | So if the R0 of coronavirus is 3.0, | 所以如果冠状病毒的R0是3.0 |
| 545 | 3.0 minus one is two divided by three is 66%. | 3.0减1等于2除以3等于66%. |
| 546 | That means our herd immunity threshold for coronavirus | 也就是说我们的冠状病毒免疫阈值 |
| 547 | is 66% of the people would have to be vaccinated. | 66%的人必须接种疫苗。 |
| 548 | But it turns out that that calculation | 但事实证明,计算 |
| 549 | makes a certain mathematical assumption, | 做一个数学假设, |
| 550 | which is not quite correct. | 这不太正确。 |
| 551 | I won't go into that right now, | 我现在不会说这个 |
| 552 | but it makes an assumption known as the well-mixed assumption. | 但它做了一个假设 被称为 良好的混合假设。 |
| 553 | And if you take network science into account, | 如果你考虑到网络科学, |
| 554 | if you take the fact that human populations | 如果你接受人类人口的事实 |
| 555 | have a network structure, | 有网络结构, |
| 556 | which is one of the things my laboratory studies, | 这是我实验室研究的一部分 |
| 557 | it turns out that number needs to come down, | 事实证明,数字需要 下来, |
| 558 | let's say to about 50%. | 约50%。 |
| 559 | It's between 40 and probably around 45%, 40 to 50%. | 大约在40%到45%之间,在40%到50%之间。 |
| 560 | Let's use 50%. | 我们用50% |
| 561 | That means that the herd immunity threshold for this virus | 这意味着这种病毒的群免疫阈值 |
| 562 | is 50% of the people would need to be vaccinated. | 50%的人需要接种疫苗。 |
| 563 | So to return to where I was before, | 所以为了回到我以前的样子 |
| 564 | we have to manufacture, distribute, | 我们必须制造,分配, |
| 565 | and get at least half of the population to be vaccinated. | 让至少一半的人口接种疫苗。 |
| 566 | Meanwhile, the virus is still spreading. | 与此同时,病毒仍在蔓延。 |
| 567 | So either way, my feeling is 2022 | 不管怎么样,我的感觉是2022年 |
| 568 | is a landmark year on the planet. | 这是地球上一个具有里程碑意义的一年。 |
| 569 | Either we reach herd immunity artificially | 要么我们人工达到群免疫 |
| 570 | because we have vaccinated people, | 因为我们接种了疫苗, |
| 571 | or we reach herd immunity naturally | 或者我们自然而然地得到群免疫力 |
| 572 | because the virus has spread | 因为病毒已经扩散了 |
| 573 | and afflicted half the people. | 并折磨了一半的人。 |
| 574 | And in fact, you see some places around the world, | 事实上,你可以看到世界各地的一些地方, |
| 575 | villages in Austria, cities in Brazil, like Manaus, | 奥地利的村庄,巴西的城市,像马瑙斯, |
| 576 | where they feel like the epidemic has ended. | 他们觉得疫情已经结束了 |
| 577 | And they feel like, well, maybe not so many people died. | 他们觉得,也许没有这么多人死了。 |
| 578 | But actually what has happened in those types of situations, | 但是,实际上发生了什么 在这类情况下, |
| 579 | you might have a village of 10,000 people, | 你可能有一个一万人的村庄, |
| 580 | 5,000 have been infected in the village | 村里有5 000人被感染 |
| 581 | before they reach herd immunity. | 在他们到达群免疫之前 |
| 582 | And of those 5,001%, let's say 50 of them died | 那5 001%的人中,有50人死亡 |
| 583 | during the epidemic. | 在疫情期间。 |
| 584 | And if it's a young village, | 如果是一个年轻的村庄, |
| 585 | if the average age of the village is young, | 如果村庄的平均年龄是年轻, |
| 586 | maybe it wasn't 50 died, maybe it was 25 died. | 也许不是50人死亡 也许25人死亡 |
| 587 | And maybe they died over the course of three or four months. | 也许他们死了三四个月 |
| 588 | So many people might look at that and say, | 这么多人可能会看 说, |
| 589 | oh, only 25 people died. | 哦,只有25人死亡。 |
| 590 | But that's actually foolish. | 但这其实是愚蠢的。 |
| 591 | That's not the right way to see what happened. | 这不是看事情的正确方式 |
| 592 | What happened is an unfettered epidemic | 发生的事是无拘无束的流行病 |
| 593 | ripped through this community and killed whoever it wanted. | 撕破这个社区 并杀死任何它想要的人。 |
| 594 | That's not a success. | 这不是一个成功。 |
| 595 | And you're seeing that in the United States right now, | 你现在在美国看到这一点 |
| 596 | where certain cities in the United States are saying, | 美国某些城市说, |
| 597 | oh, well, the virus struck us back in March | 哦,好吧,病毒在3月袭击了我们 |
| 598 | and it's behind us now. | 它现在在我们后面。 |
| 599 | And it was really bad, but it's over. | 它真的很糟糕,但它结束了。 |
| 600 | That is not a victory. | 这不是胜利。 |
| 601 | That's not a success from a public health point of view, | 从公共卫生的角度来看,这不是成功的。 |
| 602 | especially if your population is young | 特别是如果你的人口年轻 |
| 603 | and you're being deluded into thinking | 你被欺骗在思考 |
| 604 | not many people died from that. | 很少有人因此而死亡。 |
| 605 | So there are places around the world, | 因此,世界各地都有地方, |
| 606 | like in Italy, in Wuhan, certainly, | 在意大利,在武汉,当然 |
| 607 | the beginning part of the epidemic in China, | 中国疫情的开始部分, |
| 608 | and in certain parts of Brazil, | 在巴西某些地区, |
| 609 | where the virus just spread and had this impact. | 病毒传播的地方 产生了这种影响 |
| 610 | And furthermore, as many of you may know, | 此外,你们中许多人可能知道, |
| 611 | respiratory viruses come in waves. | 呼吸系统病毒是波浪式的 |
| 612 | Everybody in epidemiology knows this. | 流行病学界的人都知道这一点。 |
| 613 | There's absolutely nothing surprising | 绝对没有惊喜 |
| 614 | about what is happening right now in the United States | 关于美国现在发生的一切 |
| 615 | that there is a second wave. | 还有第二波 |
| 616 | Incidentally, there will also be a third wave in a year, | 顺便说一句,一年内还会有第三波 |
| 617 | and probably a fourth wave a year after that, | 之后一年的第四波, |
| 618 | although those waves will have lower amplitude | 虽然这些波浪的振幅会降低 |
| 619 | if we invent a vaccine. | 如果我们发明疫苗 |
| 620 | So there's the first wave of death, | 因此,有第一波死亡, |
| 621 | then there's a second wave of death when the virus returns, | 病毒回来后 会有第二波死亡 |
| 622 | the following winter, and how big that wave is can vary, | 接下来的冬天 那波浪有多大可以变化 |
| 623 | and then a third, and then usually a fourth wave, | 然后是第三波,然后通常是第四波, |
| 624 | and then eventually the virus kind of dies down. | 最后病毒会消亡 |
| 625 | And this is discussed in chapter eight of Apollo Zero, | 这一点在阿波罗零号的第八章中讨论过 |
| 626 | and we can talk about that if you wanna know. | 如果你想知道,我们可以谈谈 |
| 627 | But anyway, so we're in the middle of the second wave | 但不管怎样,我们正处在第二波之中 |
| 628 | right now. | 现在 |
| 629 | If your community had reached herd immunity | 如果你的社区 达到了群居豁免 |
| 630 | during the first wave, | 在第一波期间, |
| 631 | then you might not have such a bad second wave. | 那你就不会有这么糟糕的第二波了 |
| 632 | But that's not because you're lucky. | 但那不是因为你很幸运 |
| 633 | That's not because, oh, you know, | 这不是因为,哦,你知道, |
| 634 | the second wave isn't bad. | 第二波还不错 |
| 635 | You see some cities in the United States right now saying, | 你看,美国的一些城市 现在说, |
| 636 | second wave isn't so bad, there isn't a second wave. | 第二波没那么糟,没有第二波 |
| 637 | No, the only reason there isn't a second wave | 不,唯一的原因是没有第二波 |
| 638 | is because everyone died the previous wave. | 因为每个人都死了 前一波。 |
| 639 | It's hardly a victory. | 这不是胜利。 |
| 640 | So 2022 will mark an important landmark | 所以,2022年将是一个重要的里程碑 |
| 641 | when we reach herd immunity, | 当我们达到群免疫, |
| 642 | either artificially or naturally. | 或人工或自然。 |
| 643 | And then if you look at past pandemics | 如果你看看过去流行的传染病 |
| 644 | going back hundreds of years, | 几百年过去了 |
| 645 | it takes time to recover. | 恢复需要时间 |
| 646 | So if you look at European accounts, for example, | 所以,如果你看看欧洲的账户,例如, |
| 647 | of the bubonic plague or Native American accounts | 或美国原住民的账户 |
| 648 | of cholera outbreaks, for example, | 霍乱爆发,例如, |
| 649 | after people die in large numbers, | 在许多人死后, |
| 650 | it takes a while for society to be returned to normal. | 社会需要一段时间才能恢复正常。 |
| 651 | And I think that the psychological, social | 我认为心理,社交 |
| 652 | and economic response or recovery | 经济反应或复苏 |
| 653 | will take a couple of years. | 需要几年时间。 |
| 654 | So it's not the case that when we reach 2022, | 所以,我们到达2022年时,情况并非如此。 |
| 655 | everything will return to normal. | 一切都会恢复正常的 |
| 656 | All the students will go back to having sitting | 所有的学生都回去坐 |
| 657 | in cafeterias and chatting with each other. | 在自助餐厅和聊天。 |
| 658 | Business travel will suddenly return to normal | 商务旅行会突然恢复正常 |
| 659 | and people will happily go to airports. | 人们会很乐意去机场 |
| 660 | Economy will just bounce back | 经济会反弹的 |
| 661 | and global supply chains will be restored. | 并将恢复全球供应链。 |
| 662 | No, it will take time for people to recover. | 不,这需要时间 人们恢复。 |
| 663 | People are not instantly going to return. | 人们不会立即返回。 |
| 664 | The businesses that have gone out of business | 倒闭的企业 |
| 665 | are not instantly gonna be restored. | 不会马上恢复的 |
| 666 | So I think the intermediate period will last | 所以我觉得中间期会持续 |
| 667 | a couple of years, let's say until 2024. | 几年,我们说到2024年 |
| 668 | And then in 2024, I'm speaking globally, | 然后在2024年,我在全球发言, |
| 669 | the path in China may be a bit different. | 中国的路也许有点不一样 |
| 670 | I think we're gonna have something analogous | 我想我们会有类似的东西 |
| 671 | to the roaring 20s, which happened after the 1918 pandemic, | 发生在1918年大流行之后的咆哮20年代, |
| 672 | where people will now relentlessly seek out | 在那里人们将无情地寻找 |
| 673 | social interactions, people will be spending their money | 社会互动,人们会花钱 |
| 674 | during times of plague, people don't spend, | 在瘟疫时期 人们不会花钱 |
| 675 | but afterwards they spend and so on. | 但后来他们又花了很多钱 |
| 676 | We have these descriptions going back thousands of years | 我们有这些描述可以追溯到几千年前 |
| 677 | of what happens during plague and the descriptions, | 瘟疫期间发生的事和描述 |
| 678 | for example, during the plague of Justinian in 500 AD, | 比如在公元500年查士丁尼的瘟疫期间 |
| 679 | John of Ephesus talks about how everything slowed | 以弗所的约翰谈到一切的减速 |
| 680 | and ceased, the economy came to a stop. | 经济停止了 |
| 681 | So this is what happens during times of plague. | 这就是瘟疫时期发生的情况。 |
| 682 | Let me just say a couple more things | 让我多说几句话 |
| 683 | and then I'll stop talking. | 然后,我会停止说话。 |
| 684 | We're at 32 minutes after the hour. | 我们在32分钟后。 |
| 685 | One of the reasons it's so helpful to study | 研究很有帮助的原因之一 |
| 686 | past the history as well is that many of the things | 过去的过去也是很多事情 |
| 687 | that strike us as so bad or unusual about coronavirus | 这对我们来说是如此糟糕或不寻常 关于冕病毒 |
| 688 | actually are not that unusual at all. | 其实不是那么不寻常。 |
| 689 | We think what's happening is so alien and so strange, | 我们认为发生的事情是如此的陌生和奇怪, |
| 690 | but plagues are not new to our species, | 但是瘟疫对我们的物种来说并不新鲜 |
| 691 | plagues are new to us. | 瘟疫对我们来说是新的。 |
| 692 | We think, oh my God, how can all of this stuff be happening? | 我们想,哦,我的上帝, 怎么会发生这一切? |
| 693 | But it's happened for hundreds of years. | 却发生数百年. |
| 694 | And if you read the old accounts, you see, for example, | 如果你读过旧账,你就会看到,例如, |
| 695 | when Wenliang Li, the ophthalmologist who died, | 当时,李文亮去世的眼科医生, |
| 696 | who tried to sound the alarm in China, | 他试图在中国发出警报, |
| 697 | and there was a communist party meeting that was happening, | 并有一个共产主义政党会议 正在发生, |
| 698 | I think in this January 12th or something, | 我想在这个1月12日什么的, |
| 699 | and it was very, this news was very inconvenient | 这消息很不方便 |
| 700 | and the people, the government didn't want him | 和人民,政府不想要他 |
| 701 | to talk about what was happening. | 谈论发生了什么。 |
| 702 | When Dr. Wenliang Li tried to sound the alarm, | 当李文亮医生想报警时 |
| 703 | people wanted to stop that information. | 人们想阻止这些信息。 |
| 704 | That's not new. | 这不是新的。 |
| 705 | People were doing that in Europe 100 years ago. | 100年前,人们在欧洲就这样做了。 |
| 706 | People also did that in the United States. | 在美国人们也这样做。 |
| 707 | The desire to deny what is happening, | 想要否认所发生的一切, |
| 708 | denial is a feature of plagues. | 否认是瘟疫的一个特征. |
| 709 | People don't like bad news. | 人们不喜欢坏消息 |
| 710 | People don't want to believe | 人们不会相信 |
| 711 | that a deadly germ is spreading. | 一个致命的细菌正在扩散 |
| 712 | This is what happens when deadly germs are spreading. | 这就是当致命的细菌扩散时会发生的情况。 |
| 713 | Denial and lies are a feature of plagues. | 否认和谎言是瘟疫的一个特征. |
| 714 | And I don't know if you have this expression in Chinese, | 我不知道你是否用中文表达 |
| 715 | but in English, plague is considered | 但是在英语中,瘟疫被认为是 |
| 716 | one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse, | 启示录的四匹马之一 |
| 717 | war, famine, plague, death. | 战争 饥荒 瘟疫 死亡 |
| 718 | And if plague is one of the four horsemen, | 如果瘟疫是四马之一 |
| 719 | one of the great killers, | 一个伟大的杀手, |
| 720 | then you can think of denial and lies as being its squire, | 然后你可以认为否认和谎言是它的侍从, |
| 721 | the man that helps the night, that's right behind him. | 帮助夜晚的人 就在他身后 |
| 722 | So denial and lies are a common feature | 所以否认和谎言是共同的特点 |
| 723 | and we've seen them around the world in our leaders, | 我们已经看到他们在世界各地 在我们的领导人, |
| 724 | in people, in ordinary citizens, | 在人们,在普通公民, |
| 725 | people want to deny what's happening. | 人们想否认发生了什么 |
| 726 | Another thing that's very common | 还有一件很常见的事 |
| 727 | is that healthcare workers die. | 医护人员死亡。 |
| 728 | So when the doctors in Wuhan and the nurses started dying | 所以当武汉的医生和护士们开始死亡时 |
| 729 | and they did die, | 他们确已死亡, |
| 730 | just like they've died in the United States or in Iran | 就像他们在美国或伊朗死了一样 |
| 731 | or in Italy, physicians and nurses around the world | 或意大利,世界各地的医生和护士 |
| 732 | have died, many, many thousands of them have died | 已经死了,很多人,成千上万的人死了 |
| 733 | taking care of people who are critically sick. | 照顾那些病重的人。 |
| 734 | And this is awful. | 这是可怕的。 |
| 735 | And okay, in China, they had no warning | 好吧,在中国,他们没有警告 |
| 736 | when the pandemic struck, | 当流行病流行时, |
| 737 | but in the rest of the world, | 但在世界其他地方, |
| 738 | why we weren't prepared with more PPE, | 为什么我们没有准备好 更多的个人防护设备, |
| 739 | personal protective equipment was a big mistake | 个人防护设备是个大错误 |
| 740 | that our healthcare workers would die | 我们的医护人员会死 |
| 741 | because they didn't have the necessary equipment | 因为他们没有必要的设备 |
| 742 | is an awful event. | 是一个可怕的事件。 |
| 743 | 但是如果你读到Thucydides | |
| 744 | describing the plague of Athens in 430 BC, | 描述公元前430年雅典的瘟疫, |
| 745 | Thucydides talks about how the doctors die during plagues. | Thucydides讲述了医生在瘟疫中是如何死亡的. |
| 746 | So doctors dying also is not new. | 所以,医生的死亡 也不是新的。 |
| 747 | Healthcare workers dying during times of plague | 在瘟疫期间死亡的保健工作者 |
| 748 | is an ancient problem. | 这是一个古老的问题。 |
| 749 | So lies and denial are ancient. | 所以谎言和否认是古老的。 |
| 750 | Doctors dying is ancient. | 医死是古. |
| 751 | Sadness and grief are ancient. | 忧悲忧苦是古. |
| 752 | The fact that people feel sad during times of plague | 人们在瘟疫时期感到悲伤 |
| 753 | was described by Marcus Aurelius | 被马库斯·奥雷利乌斯描述 |
| 754 | during the plague that afflicted Rome | 罗马灾祸期间 |
| 755 | and many other observers. | 以及许多其他观察者。 |
| 756 | People grieve the loss of life. | 人们为失去生命而悲伤。 |
| 757 | They grieve the loss of their livelihoods, | 他们为丧失生计而悲伤, |
| 758 | of their jobs, | 他们的工作, |
| 759 | and they grieve the loss of their way of life, | 他们为自己的丧失而悲伤, |
| 760 | how they're living. | 他们是如何生活的。 |
| 761 | This is a very common feature of plagues. | 这是瘟疫的一个非常常见的特征. |
| 762 | And we're seeing it around the world right now. | 而我们正在世界各地看到它。 |
| 763 | Blaming others and scapegoating also happening right now. | 指责别人和替罪羊 也发生在现在。 |
| 764 | Finger pointing, who's responsible? | 手指指向谁? |
| 765 | Oh, these people are responsible. | 哦,这些人的责任。 |
| 766 | Those people are responsible. | 那些人有责任。 |
| 767 | This is stupid. | 这是愚蠢的。 |
| 768 | The virus is responsible. | 病毒负责 |
| 769 | It's not any human's fault. | 这不是人类的错。 |
| 770 | It's the virus. | 这是病毒。 |
| 771 | And so people during times of plague | 瘟疫时期的人 |
| 772 | always want to blame someone else. | 总是想怪别人 |
| 773 | In Europe, in the bubonic plague, it was the Jews. | 在欧洲,在暴发性瘟疫中,是犹太人. |
| 774 | It must be the Jews' fault. | 一定是犹太人的错 |
| 775 | We need to kill them. | 我们需要杀死他们。 |
| 776 | Or during one of the episodes, | 或者在其中一集中, |
| 777 | there were four Spaniards from Spain | 有四个来自西班牙的西班牙人 |
| 778 | that happened to be in Italy. | 刚好是在意大利 |
| 779 | And the Italians decided it's the Spaniards' fault. | 而意大利人决定这是西班牙人的错. |
| 780 | They were put to death, right? | 他们被处死,对不对? |
| 781 | During HIV in the United States, | 在美国艾滋病毒发作期间 |
| 782 | it was homosexuals' fault, | 这是同性恋的错, |
| 783 | or people from Haiti's fault, | 或海地人的过错, |
| 784 | or intravenous drug users' fault. | 或者静脉注射吸毒者的错 |
| 785 | This is all false. | 这一切都是假的。 |
| 786 | This is a lie. | 这是谎言 |
| 787 | It's no one's fault that they're infected with a germ. | 被细菌感染不是任何人的错. |
| 788 | The germ is what causes the problem. | 细菌才是问题的根源 |
| 789 | Now, people can behave badly in ways | 现在,人们可以表现的不好 |
| 790 | that put themselves and others at greater risk. | 这会让自己和其他人面临更大的风险。 |
| 791 | I'm not saying, for example, | 我不是说,例如, |
| 792 | we don't need to wear masks because it's just a virus. | 我们不需要戴面具 因为它只是病毒 |
| 793 | People do need to behave responsibly, | 人们确实需要 负责任的行为, |
| 794 | but the desire to blame other people | 但想怪罪别人 |
| 795 | is a feature of plagues. | 是瘟疫的一个特征。 |
| 796 | So let me just stop. | 让我停下来 |
| 797 | Let me just think of how I will end, | 让我想想我会怎么结束 |
| 798 | what my last thing that I would like to say to you is. | 我最后想对你说的是什么 |
| 799 | I guess I'll just stop by saying | 我想我会停下来说 |
| 800 | that earlier I opened by talking about Blueprint, | 刚才我讲到蓝图 |
| 801 | and I talked about how natural selection has shaped us | 我谈到了自然选择如何塑造我们 |
| 802 | to live in a certain way, | 以某种方式生活, |
| 803 | to be near each other, to hug and touch each other, | 彼此亲近 拥抱和抚摸彼此 |
| 804 | to befriend each other, to form groups, | 结为朋友,组成团体, |
| 805 | to work together, to teach each other things, right? | 一起工作,互相教导,对吧? |
| 806 | One of the reasons we live socially | 我们生活的原因之一 |
| 807 | is so that we can learn from each other, | 以便我们互相学习, |
| 808 | learning from each other rather than learning on our own. | 互相学习 而不是自己学习 |
| 809 | Other animals have to learn on their own. | 其他动物必须自己学习. |
| 810 | Another animal, for example, | 另一种动物,例如, |
| 811 | if it wants to learn that something is poisonous, | 如果它想知道什么是有毒的, |
| 812 | it has to eat the poisonous thing and die. | 它必须吃有毒的东西然后死去。 |
| 813 | And then it learns, oh, that was poisonous. | 然后它学会了,哦,那是有毒的。 |
| 814 | We don't have to do that. | 我们不必这样做。 |
| 815 | I can learn from you. | 我可以从你身上学到 |
| 816 | Oh, that's poisonous. | 哦,这是有毒的。 |
| 817 | Don't eat that, okay? | 别吃,好吗? |
| 818 | So we form these groups to get these benefits | 所以我们组成这些团体来获得这些利益 |
| 819 | of friendship and cooperation and teaching and so on. | 友好合作与教学等等。 |
| 820 | And you could argue, and I have argued, | 而你可以争论, 我争论, |
| 821 | that in a very real way, the spread of germs | 细菌的传播 |
| 822 | is the price we pay for the spread of ideas. | 是我们为传播思想付出的代价。 |
| 823 | We come together in order to learn from each other | 我们在一起是为了互相学习 |
| 824 | and benefit from interacting with each other, | 并享受彼此间的交流, |
| 825 | but then we place ourselves at risk | 但是我们把自己置于危险之中 |
| 826 | for the spread of pathogens. | 用于传播病原体。 |
| 827 | And one of the ironies of this pandemic | 这场大流行的讽刺之一 |
| 828 | is that the way we are going to beat the virus | 就是我们打败病毒的方式 |
| 829 | is precisely through the spread of ideas. | 正是通过思想的传播。 |
| 830 | It's by working together and sharing information | 就是通过合作和分享信息 |
| 831 | that actually we will fight back this virus. | 实际上,我们将与这种病毒作斗争。 |
| 832 | We're using information from the past, | 我们用的是过去的信息 |
| 833 | using information from each other, working together. | 利用彼此的信息,一起工作。 |
| 834 | This is how we repel an invader like the virus. | 这就是我们如何击退像病毒这样的入侵者。 |
| 835 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 836 | Thank you, that was fantastic. | 谢谢,那太棒了 |
| 837 | And I'm sure everybody just wants to get the book now, | 我敢肯定,每个人都只是想 现在得到这本书, |
| 838 | and hopefully it'll be out in Chinese sooner | 希望早点用中文出来 |
| 839 | rather than later. | 而不是后来。 |
| 840 | So I'm sure there are lots of questions, | 所以我肯定有很多问题 |
| 841 | very wide ranging discussion here. | 这里的讨论非常广泛 |
| 842 | So the way we'll do this is people can either | 所以,我们这样做的方式 是人也可以 |
| 843 | type out your questions in the chat box, | 在聊天框中输入您的问题, |
| 844 | in English or Chinese, we can translate, | 用英语或中文,我们可以翻译, |
| 845 | and we can answer that. | 我们可以回答这个问题。 |
| 846 | Or you can go ahead and directly raise your hand | 也可以直接举手 |
| 847 | under participants in the bottom of your Zoom function. | 在您缩放函数底部的参与者下。 |
| 848 | There's a participants and you should be able | 有一个参与者,你应该能够 |
| 849 | to raise your hand based on that. | 举起手来 |
| 850 | So go ahead and feel free to ask any questions | 随便问吧 |
| 851 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你已经知道了 | |
| 852 | And I know it takes a while for people to formulate them | 我知道人们需要一段时间来设计它们 |
| 853 | and to come with them. | 和他们一起去。 |
| 854 | I'll start, I guess, with a question as other people are. | 我想,我先问一个问题 跟别人一样 |
| 855 | I have to say, someone directly corrected | 我不得不说,有人直接改正了 |
| 856 | my mentioning of the Maori's. | 我提到毛利人的 |
| 857 | Yes, there's debate about when the Maori's | 是的,有争论 关于什么时候毛利人 |
| 858 | settled New Zealand. | 定居新西兰。 |
| 859 | Some people think they arrived at 1100 AD. | 有些人认为他们到达了公元1100年. |
| 860 | I said a thousand years ago, | 我说一千年前, |
| 861 | someone said it was only a few hundred years ago. | 有人说那是几百年前的事了 |
| 862 | No, approximately a thousand years ago, they arrived. | 不,大约一千年前,他们到了。 |
| 863 | This is a very smart audience, a very early died audience. | 这是一个非常聪明的观众, 一个非常早逝的观众。 |
| 864 | And actually, since that person brought it up, | 事实上,既然那个人提起了 |
| 865 | the Maori's brought a rat, Asian rat that was small | 毛利带来一只小的亚洲老鼠 |
| 866 | and not so bad with them. | 和他们相处的还不错 |
| 867 | But the Europeans, when they arrived about 200 years ago, | 但欧洲人,当他们200年前到达的时候, |
| 868 | brought a bigger Norwegian rat, which was much worse | 带来了一个更大的挪威老鼠, 更糟糕的是 |
| 869 | and decimated the animals on the island. | 并杀死岛上的动物。 |
| 870 | Anyway, that's a small footnote. | 无论如何,这是一个小脚注。 |
| 871 | I'm sorry, go on, Devin, what's your first note? | 对不起,继续,德文,你第一张纸条是什么? |
| 872 | That's good, I was just, I mean, when we're talking | 很好,我只是,我的意思是, 当我们说话的时候 |
| 873 | about the scale of the whole world and all of history, | 关于整个世界和历史的规模, |
| 874 | what's a couple hundred years? | 几百年是什麽? |
| 875 | Yes. | 对 |
| 876 | I guess I'll start with a question. | 我想我应该先问个问题 |
| 877 | It strikes me, and I think many people feel this way, | 我觉得很多人都这样想 |
| 878 | that the US has been particularly bad | 美国特别糟糕 |
| 879 | at controlling this pandemic. | 控制这种流行病。 |
| 880 | What factors would you say from a sociological standpoint | 从社会学角度来说,你会说什么因素? |
| 881 | are at play there that have led to the US | 在那里玩 导致美国 |
| 882 | being particularly bad at this? | 特别糟糕吗? |
| 883 | I think honestly, a lot of it was we had the bad luck | 老实说,我们运气不好 |
| 884 | to have the particular president that we did. | 拥有我们所做的总统 |
| 885 | I think we had very poor leadership in the White House. | 我认为我们在白宫的领导力非常差。 |
| 886 | Now, in fairness, other European countries | 现在,公平,其他欧洲国家 |
| 887 | like Italy and England also were badly afflicted. | 就像意大利和英国也受到了严重的折磨 |
| 888 | But I don't think that gives us a pass. | 但我不认为这给我们一个机会。 |
| 889 | New Zealand did very well. | 新西兰做得非常好。 |
| 890 | Now, of course, New Zealand is a rich democracy, | 现在,当然,新西兰是一个丰富的民主国家, |
| 891 | but it's an island. | 但它是一个岛。 |
| 892 | And you see a lot of islands did well. | 你看到很多岛屿都表现很好。 |
| 893 | Taiwan did well, South Korea did well. | 台湾表现良好,韩国表现良好. |
| 894 | South Korea is basically an island. | 韩国基本上是一个岛屿. |
| 895 | I mean, the border with North Korea is sealed. | 我的意思是,与朝鲜的边界被封. |
| 896 | Those countries all did very well. | 这些国家都做得非常好。 |
| 897 | Of course, there are also Asian countries, | 当然,还有亚洲国家, |
| 898 | and there's some sense that there's a lot of theories | 有一种感觉 有很多理论 |
| 899 | as to why some of these Asian countries did well. | 以及为什么其中一些亚洲国家表现良好。 |
| 900 | Some have to do with the idea that they had, | 有些人和他们的想法有关 |
| 901 | first of all, they had a lot more experience | 首先,他们有更多的经验 |
| 902 | dealing with these viruses and mobilizing | 对付这些病毒并动员 |
| 903 | or better prepared. | 或有更好的准备。 |
| 904 | But also there's some biological theories | 还有一些生物学理论 |
| 905 | having to do with potentially prior exposure | 与可能事先接触有关 |
| 906 | to similar coronaviruses. | 和类似的冕病毒。 |
| 907 | I don't think that was a big role, | 我不认为这是一个大角色, |
| 908 | but maybe it played a small part anyway. | 但也许它起了很小的作用 |
| 909 | But Greece also did well, and New Zealand did well. | 但希腊也表现良好,新西兰也表现良好. |
| 910 | Greece is not a, Germany did pretty well at the beginning. | 希腊不是,德国一开始表现相当不错。 |
| 911 | So many countries did poorly, some did well, | 很多国家做得不好,有些人做得好 |
| 912 | but that doesn't let the United States off the hook, | 但这并不能让美国摆脱困境 |
| 913 | in my view. | 在我看来 |
| 914 | In my view, our nation is, | 我认为我们的民族 |
| 915 | I'm very proud of the United States. | 我为美国感到非常骄傲. |
| 916 | I think the United States has many wonderful qualities. | 我认为,美国有许多出色的素质。 |
| 917 | We have our problems too, | 我们也有问题 |
| 918 | but we have many wonderful qualities. | 但我们有许多优秀的品质。 |
| 919 | And I think we should have done better | 我觉得我们应该做得更好 |
| 920 | in dealing with this virus, and we didn't. | 对付这种病毒 我们没有 |
| 921 | I think part of it was bad leadership. | 我认为其中一部分是领导失误。 |
| 922 | I think that when the Chinese locked down on January 24th, | 我想当中国人于1月24日被封锁时 |
| 923 | and we now know that experts in the government | 现在我们知道政府的专家 |
| 924 | knew what was happening, | 知道发生了什么 |
| 925 | I think what should have been done is | 我想应该做的是 |
| 926 | we should have immediately begun to prepare | 我们该马上开始准备 |
| 927 | the material that we needed, | 我们需要的材料, |
| 928 | the personal protective equipment, the ventilators, | 个人防护设备 通风机 |
| 929 | certainly all the equipment | 肯定所有设备 |
| 930 | we should have started manufacturing. | 我们应该开始制造。 |
| 931 | The American people should have been prepared. | 美国人民应该做好准备。 |
| 932 | We should have been told, | 我们早该被告知 |
| 933 | look, this is the threat that's coming. | 听着,这就是即将到来的威胁。 |
| 934 | Public messaging should have been better. | 公众信息应该更好 |
| 935 | We should have begun to prepare people | 我们本该开始准备的 |
| 936 | for the necessity of wearing masks, | 因为必须戴面具, |
| 937 | for the necessity of physical distancing, and so on. | 为了身体上的距离,等等。 |
| 938 | But we didn't do those things. | 但我们没有做那些事。 |
| 939 | And part of it, we didn't do it | 和它的一部分,我们没有这样做 |
| 940 | as the particular polarization, | 作为特定的两极分化, |
| 941 | political polarization we have in our country. | 我们国家的政治两极分化。 |
| 942 | And part of it also is that around the world, | 还有一部分是 在世界各地, |
| 943 | but including the United States, | 但包括美国, |
| 944 | and this problem afflicts China as well, | 这个问题也困扰着中国, |
| 945 | there's this kind of desire to see difficult problems | 有这种渴望看到困难的问题 |
| 946 | as black or white, | 如黑或白, |
| 947 | like either it's this way or it's that way. | 要么是这样,要么就是那样 |
| 948 | Either you're with me or you're against me. | 你要么跟我在一起 要么你反对我 |
| 949 | And there's the loss of capacity for nuance. | 而微细之能力亦有减减. |
| 950 | Like any adult knows that the world is complicated. | 像任何成年人都知道 世界是复杂的。 |
| 951 | There are shades of gray, right? | 有灰色的荫影,对不对? |
| 952 | Things are rarely black or white. | 事物很少是黑色或白色的. |
| 953 | But around the world in many environments, | 但在世界很多环境中, |
| 954 | including in the United States among the American people, | 包括美国人民, |
| 955 | there's a desire to see things in this very simplistic way. | 有人想用这种简单的方式看待事情 |
| 956 | And I think this makes it very difficult | 我觉得这很难办到 |
| 957 | to confront a complex threat | 面对复杂的威胁 |
| 958 | where you have to tell people, | 在那里,你必须告诉人们, |
| 959 | look, there's no perfect safety | 你看,没有完美的安全 |
| 960 | and there's no perfect danger. | 而且没有完美的危险。 |
| 961 | It's shades of risk. | 隐隐隐险. |
| 962 | And we can take certain actions that are not perfect, | 我们可以采取某些不完美的行动, |
| 963 | but that help us. | 但这对我们有帮助。 |
| 964 | And they reduce the risk by some amount. | 他们把风险降低一些 |
| 965 | And we should do those things, | 我们应该做那些事情, |
| 966 | even though they're not gonna make you perfectly safe, | 即使他们不会让你完全安全, |
| 967 | it's still worth doing those things. | 做这些事还是值得的 |
| 968 | It was very hard for people to hear that. | 人们很难听到这一点。 |
| 969 | For example, they heard that masks were good, | 例如,他们听说面具不错 |
| 970 | but not perfect. | 但不是完美无缺 |
| 971 | So some people heard that and said, | 所以有人听到说, |
| 972 | oh, well, we shouldn't wear masks. | 我们不应该戴面具 |
| 973 | They don't work. | 他们不工作。 |
| 974 | But that's not correct. | 但这样不对 |
| 975 | They just, they don't work perfectly. | 他们只是,他们不工作完美。 |
| 976 | They work, but not perfectly. | 他们工作,但并不完美。 |
| 977 | Anyway, so I think those were some of the problems | 总之,我认为这些是一些问题 |
| 978 | that contributed. | 这贡献了。 |
| 979 | Great, thanks. | 很好 谢谢 |
| 980 | We have a question from Jesse Dang. | 我们有杰西・当的问题 |
| 981 | Two questions, actually. | 两个问题,其实。 |
| 982 | The first is, how is the coronavirus pandemic | 首先是 冠状病毒的流行情况如何 |
| 983 | remolding the state and citizen relationship? | 重塑国家和公民关系? |
| 984 | Which I think is something that we can talk about | 我觉得我们可以谈谈 |
| 985 | very broadly. | 非常广泛。 |
| 986 | And then how does the lesson lead us to redefine | 然后,如何教训我们 重新定义 |
| 987 | what a good society may be? | 一个什么样的好社会? |
| 988 | On the latter, I do not think that there's any change | 关于后者,我不认为有什么变化 |
| 989 | in what a good society is. | 在一个什么样的好社会。 |
| 990 | There is a long history of powerful leaders | 有权有势的领袖有很长的历史 |
| 991 | that think that they can reshape society | 认为他们可以重塑社会 |
| 992 | in the way that they think is right. | 他们认为正确的方式。 |
| 993 | And it always fails, right? | 它总是失败,对不对? |
| 994 | A society which tries to tell people that | 一个试图告诉别人 |
| 995 | whether people fall in love in their families is not good. | 人们在家庭里坠入爱河不是好事 |
| 996 | Or a society that tries to tell people | 或者一个试图告诉别人的社会 |
| 997 | to be suspicious of their friends, for example, | 比如怀疑他们的朋友 |
| 998 | doesn't work. | 没用的 |
| 999 | Or a society which tries to, | 或者一个社会试图, |
| 1000 | well, anyway, it's discussed in Blueprint, this topic. | 好吧,反正,这是在蓝图里讨论的,这个话题。 |
| 1001 | And so, but many people have tried on the far left | 所以,但许多人 尝试在最左边 |
| 1002 | and on the far right to remake society in some new way | 以某种新方式重建社会的权利 |
| 1003 | and that doesn't work. | 这行不通。 |
| 1004 | And I don't think the virus is gonna do that either. | 我认为病毒不会做到这一点。 |
| 1005 | I think the fundamental way | 我认为根本的方法 |
| 1006 | that human beings organize themselves socially | 人类组织起来 |
| 1007 | will remain unchanged by this pandemic. | 这种流行病将保持不变。 |
| 1008 | On the former question, | 关于前一个问题, |
| 1009 | which was a more political question | 这是一个更政治的问题 |
| 1010 | on the relationship between people and the state. | 关于人民和国家之间的关系。 |
| 1011 | I think it depends on how competent the state reaction is. | 我认为这取决于国家反应的能力。 |
| 1012 | In general, during times of plague, | 一般来说,在瘟疫时期, |
| 1013 | you need state action, right? | 你需要国家行动 对吧? |
| 1014 | Like if there's an invader on the frontier | 就像边境上有入侵者一样 |
| 1015 | and you take your gun and go to the frontier, | 你拿着枪去边境 |
| 1016 | there's nothing you can do as a solitary individual | 你一个人一个人也做不了什么 |
| 1017 | against the invader. | 对抗入侵者。 |
| 1018 | And in fact, even if every citizen takes their gun | 事实上,即使每个公民都拿枪 |
| 1019 | and goes to the frontier, but in a disorganized way, | 并进入边境,但以混乱的方式, |
| 1020 | they're also not gonna succeed against the invader. | 他们也不会成功对付入侵者 |
| 1021 | You need organization. | 你需要组织。 |
| 1022 | You need some kind of way of coordinating the action | 你需要某种方式协调行动 |
| 1023 | of people to repel an invader. | 他们将击退入侵者, |
| 1024 | It's the same with the virus, right? | 病毒也一样,对吧? |
| 1025 | Each of you can take an action to protect yourselves. | 你们每个人都可以采取行动保护自己。 |
| 1026 | You can wear a mask, you can stay at home, | 你可以戴着面具 呆在家里 |
| 1027 | you can do whatever you want, | 你想怎样都行 |
| 1028 | but that doesn't have any effect on the pandemic. | 但这对大流行没有任何影响。 |
| 1029 | And each of you can also take actions | 你们每个人都可以采取行动 |
| 1030 | that are disorganized, right? | 乱七八糟的,对吧? |
| 1031 | But in a way, if you're disorganized in the United States, | 但从某种意义上说 如果你在美国搞乱了 |
| 1032 | there's a kind of a joke that has circulated about this. | 有个笑话已经传开了 |
| 1033 | If different parts of the country adopt different rules, | 如果该国不同地区采用不同的规则, |
| 1034 | it doesn't necessarily help us. | 它不一定对我们有帮助。 |
| 1035 | It's like saying you can pee in this part | 这就像说 你可以撒尿在这个部分 |
| 1036 | of the swimming pool and that's okay, | 游泳池,没关系, |
| 1037 | and the rest will be fine. | 其他的都会好起来的 |
| 1038 | But that's not how it works, right? | 但事情不是这样的 对吧? |
| 1039 | You can't have like over here, we're doing one thing | 你不能有像这里, 我们正在做一件事 |
| 1040 | and over there, we're doing something else. | 那边,我们还有别的事要做 |
| 1041 | The virus will spread. | 病毒会扩散 |
| 1042 | So you need coordination. | 所以你需要协调 |
| 1043 | So if the state is able to effectively coordinate people, | 因此,如果国家能够有效地协调人们, |
| 1044 | then I think it will increase confidence in the state. | 我认为这能增强人们对国家的信心 |
| 1045 | On the other hand, if the state is incompetent, | 另一方面,如果国家无能, |
| 1046 | if the state does poorly, I think then the relationship | 如果国家做不好, 我想那关系 |
| 1047 | between the citizenry and the state will be worsened. | 公民与国家之间的矛盾将会恶化。 |
| 1048 | So a pandemic disease is the kind of challenge | 所以大流行性疾病就是挑战 |
| 1049 | that calls for collective action and collective response. | 这需要集体行动和集体反应。 |
| 1050 | It is intrinsically a collective threat. | 它本质上是一种集体威胁。 |
| 1051 | An epidemic disease is intrinsically a collective threat | 流行病本质上是集体威胁 |
| 1052 | and it requires a collective response. | 这需要集体的反应。 |
| 1053 | If that response is organized well by the state, | 如果国家组织得当 |
| 1054 | then I think it increases confidence in the state. | 那么我觉得这能增强人们对国家的信心 |
| 1055 | So a lot depends on how it's done. | 所以,很多取决于它是如何做的。 |
| 1056 | And incidentally, I think this is one of the, | 顺便说一句,我想这是... |
| 1057 | well, anyway, you guys can draw conclusions | 总之,你们可以下结论 |
| 1058 | from that statement. | 从声明。 |
| 1059 | Great, thanks. | 很好 谢谢 |
| 1060 | Tracy has a question, again, a two-parter. | 崔西又问了个问题 两个部分 |
| 1061 | Do you think viruses will survive or outlast human beings | 你觉得病毒会活下来还是会活过人类 |
| 1062 | as they have been in existence for billions of years? | 它们存在了数十亿年? |
| 1063 | And do you think in some way that human beings | 你是否在某种程度上认为人类 |
| 1064 | after evolving for so many millions of years | 经过数百万年的演化 |
| 1065 | along with viruses that we've actually become | 与病毒,我们实际上已经成为 |
| 1066 | more vulnerable to them? | 更容易受到他们的伤害? |
| 1067 | Okay, that's a very complicated question. | 好吧,这是一个非常复杂的问题。 |
| 1068 | It's discussed in part in chapter eight of the book. | 本书第八章有部分论述. |
| 1069 | We co-evolved, prior to 10,000 years ago, | 我们在一万年前共同发展, |
| 1070 | we lived in small groups | 我们住的小群 |
| 1071 | and there were probably not pandemics back then. | 那时可能没有传染病 |
| 1072 | Most of the, but we co-evolved to live with parasites. | 大多数的,但我们共同发展 与寄生虫生活。 |
| 1073 | So we have a very close relationship | 所以我们的关系很亲密 |
| 1074 | with certain parasitic organisms. | 还有某些寄生生物 |
| 1075 | Most of the viruses and bacteria that cause epidemics | 大多数导致流行病的病毒和细菌 |
| 1076 | including viruses and bacteria | 包括病毒和细菌 |
| 1077 | that have become endemic to us, | 成为我们特有的, |
| 1078 | like tuberculosis or measles, for example, or chickenpox, | 比如肺结核或麻疹 或鸡瘟 |
| 1079 | most of those viruses that we think of as diseases | 大部分病毒,我们认为是疾病 |
| 1080 | actually have come to us from domesticated animals. | 其实是从驯化的动物那里来的 |
| 1081 | So just like coronavirus came from bats | 所以就像日冕病毒来自蝙蝠 |
| 1082 | and spread to humans and is a new disease to us, | 并传播到人类 是我们的新疾病, |
| 1083 | all those other diseases that you guys think about | 你们想的那些其他疾病 |
| 1084 | also originally came from animals, | 最初也来自动物, |
| 1085 | like HIV came from monkeys, for example, right? | 比如说HIV来自猴子,对吧? |
| 1086 | Human immunodeficiency virus. | 人体免疫机能丧失病毒。 |
| 1087 | All these other things originally came from animals | 所有这些其他的东西 最初来自动物 |
| 1088 | that we domesticated, | 我们驯化, |
| 1089 | but we not only had to domesticate these animals | 但是我们不仅要驯养这些动物 |
| 1090 | and now be in close contact with these animals | 现在和这些动物保持密切联系 |
| 1091 | so that their pathogens could come to us, | 以便他们的病原体来到我们这里, |
| 1092 | but we also had to form big enough aggregations. | 但我们也必须形成足够大的集合。 |
| 1093 | It's called the minimum community size | 这叫最小的社区规模 |
| 1094 | and it's discussed in the book. | 书里也讨论过了 |
| 1095 | It's another epidemiological principle. | 这是另一个流行病学原理。 |
| 1096 | You see, if let's say you're a group of a hundred people | 你看,如果说你们是一百个人 |
| 1097 | and you have a cow and we think measles originally came | 而你有头牛 我们认为麻疹是最初来的 |
| 1098 | from cows about 2,400 years ago to the Romans, all right? | 从2400年前的牛到罗马人,好吗? |
| 1099 | If you have a hundred people and you have a cow | 如果你有一百个人和一头牛 |
| 1100 | and we think that the origin of measles | 我们认为麻疹的起源 |
| 1101 | is in a similar virus called rinder pest that affects cows, | 身处一种类似的病毒中 被称为灰熊害虫 影响牛群 |
| 1102 | if the virus jumps from the cows to humans | 如果病毒从牛跳到人类 |
| 1103 | and you're only a hundred humans, | 你们只有一百个人 |
| 1104 | it infects whoever it's gonna infect | 它会感染任何它要感染的人 |
| 1105 | and then it runs out of runway and it auto extinguishes. | 然后跑出跑道自动熄灭 |
| 1106 | The virus doesn't have any more people it can infect. | 病毒已经没有能感染的人了 |
| 1107 | It's infected everyone it can infect and it dies out. | 它感染了所有能感染的人 并且会死 |
| 1108 | So you need a million people like ancient Rome. | 所以你需要一百万人 像古罗马。 |
| 1109 | So the virus can continually circulate in the population. | 因此病毒可以持续在人群中流通. |
| 1110 | It has to come from the cow and land in a population | 它必须来自牛和土地 在人群中 |
| 1111 | of a certain minimum size | 一定最小尺寸 |
| 1112 | so that it can basically be engrafted into us. | 这样它就可以基本上被刻进我们身上 |
| 1113 | So this is called the minimum community size. | 这就是所谓的最小社区规模。 |
| 1114 | So the viruses and the bacteria that afflict us | 所以病毒和细菌 折磨我们 |
| 1115 | came from animals after we domesticated them, most of them | 我们驯化动物后,他们大多是动物 |
| 1116 | and now live among us because we also live | 现在活在我们中间,因为我们也活着 |
| 1117 | in large aggregations, which is very different | 在大集合中, 这非常不同 |
| 1118 | than our ancient past prior to 10,000 years ago. | 比我们一万年前的古老历史 |
| 1119 | Most of the modern pandemics also come from animals | 现代流行疾病大多也来自动物 |
| 1120 | but not our domesticated ones. | 但不是我们驯养的 |
| 1121 | They come for example, from bats, which are wild animals. | 例如,它们来自蝙蝠,它们是野生动物。 |
| 1122 | Now, so in some sense, these viruses are unusual to us | 从某种意义上来说 这些病毒对我们来说是不寻常的 |
| 1123 | but there's no doubt the viruses preceded primates | 但毫无疑问病毒在灵长类动物之前 |
| 1124 | and will be here long after us. | 并会在这里 很久之后我们。 |
| 1125 | So the idea that we will, you know, but we will, | 所以,我们的想法,你知道, 但我们会, |
| 1126 | we are evolving to adapt to some of these pathogens. | 我们正在进化 适应其中一些病原体。 |
| 1127 | So for example, there's evidence | 比如说,有证据 |
| 1128 | that Native American populations that were afflicted | 受苦受难的美洲原住民 |
| 1129 | with smallpox that the European settlers brought, | 欧洲移民带来的天花 |
| 1130 | often 95% of the people would die, | 95%的人会死, |
| 1131 | but the 5% who survived, we now have been shown | 但是幸存下来的5%,我们现在被显示 |
| 1132 | to have had certain innate genetic features | 拥有一定的遗传特征 |
| 1133 | that gave them some immunity. | 这给了他们一些豁免权。 |
| 1134 | And so therefore the genetic profile | 因此遗传特征 |
| 1135 | of those Native American populations that are still alive | 仍然活着的美洲原住民人口 |
| 1136 | is different than it would have been. | 和本来不一样 |
| 1137 | So that's a kind of, you know, evolution among humans | 这就是人类的进化 |
| 1138 | that might happen as asked by your questioner. | 你问的人可能问到的 |
| 1139 | Did I answer the question? | 我回答了问题吗? |
| 1140 | I don't know if I answered the question. | 我不知道我是否回答了这个问题。 |
| 1141 | Yeah, I think that was great. | 是的,我觉得这是伟大的。 |
| 1142 | And actually that dovetails pretty well | 其实那只鸽子的尾巴还不错 |
| 1143 | with the next question from Katalia, | 下一个问题来自卡塔利亚, |
| 1144 | which is this idea of de-globalization, right? | 这是去全球化的想法,对不对? |
| 1145 | And so is it because of population size | 也因为人口众多 |
| 1146 | and because of spread, how viruses spread, | 由于病毒的传播 |
| 1147 | is it because globalization that like this pandemic | 是因为全球化喜欢这种流行病 |
| 1148 | was able to kind of take off in a way | 能够以某种方式起飞 |
| 1149 | that it wouldn't have been able to in the past? | 过去它不可能做到的? |
| 1150 | No, I don't think, no, I mean, the 1890s, | 不 我不认为 我是说 1890年代 |
| 1151 | so-called Russian flu that began in Uzbekistan | 所谓的俄罗斯流感 始于乌兹别克斯坦 |
| 1152 | that I think may have been, | 我认为可能是, |
| 1153 | people think it was influenza, | 人们认为这是流感, |
| 1154 | but I think it may have been a coronavirus species. | 但我认为它可能是 冕病毒物种。 |
| 1155 | And I discussed this in chapter eight of the book. | 我在书的第八章讨论了这个问题。 |
| 1156 | Took 70 days to get from Moscow to New York. | 从莫斯科到纽约花了70天 |
| 1157 | I mean, people always traveled. | 我的意思是,人们总是旅行。 |
| 1158 | The bubonic plague spread through Europe on horseback | 瘟疫在马背上蔓延到欧洲 |
| 1159 | or as people walked. | 或当人们走。 |
| 1160 | So I do not think that globalization, | 所以我不认为全球化, |
| 1161 | I think has made it a bit faster, | 我觉得已经快了点了 |
| 1162 | but I don't think globalization and the 1918 pandemic, | 但我不认为全球化和1918年的大流行, |
| 1163 | eventually after 30 months, | 30个月后 |
| 1164 | even reached isolated Pacific islands, right? | 甚至到达了孤立的太平洋岛屿,对不对? |
| 1165 | It took almost three years to get there, | 花了将近三年才到那里, |
| 1166 | but it got there, right? | 但它到了,对不对? |
| 1167 | Even to these very isolated places. | 甚至到这些非常孤立的地方。 |
| 1168 | So I don't think globalization will do that. | 所以我认为全球化不会做到这一点。 |
| 1169 | I think there is a sense in which the pandemic | 我认为有一种感觉 流行 |
| 1170 | has made people very sensitive to the global supply chain. | 使人们对全球供应链非常敏感。 |
| 1171 | And I do think that there will be some unraveling of this. | 我确实认为,这将会有一些破解。 |
| 1172 | Like I think countries around the world are realizing | 就像我觉得世界各国都在意识到 |
| 1173 | that when a global pandemic strikes and trade slows down, | 当全球流行性疾病袭击和贸易放缓时, |
| 1174 | that's exactly when you are very vulnerable. | 这正是你非常脆弱的时候 |
| 1175 | If you're dependent on another country | 如果你依赖另一个国家 |
| 1176 | to make your essential medicines, | 做你的基本药物, |
| 1177 | and you can't get ships to bring your medicines | 你不能让船 带来你的药品 |
| 1178 | or factories in that country to make the medicines, | 或在该国制造药品的工厂, |
| 1179 | that's not a good strategy. | 这不是一个好策略。 |
| 1180 | So I think there will be some unraveling | 所以我觉得会有一些破解 |
| 1181 | of the global supply chain, | 全球供应链, |
| 1182 | although I think eventually it will return to normal as well | 虽然我想最终也会恢复正常 |
| 1183 | because the economic justification of globalization. | 因为全球化的经济理由。 |
| 1184 | And in fact, there's also been some de-urbanization | 实际上,也发生了一些去城市化 |
| 1185 | right now. | 现在 |
| 1186 | People are fleeing the cities. | 人们正在逃离城市。 |
| 1187 | Even in China, this happened. | 即使在中国,这种情况也发生了. |
| 1188 | People went to their ancestral villages, right? | 人们去他们的祖先村庄,对不对? |
| 1189 | This is again of hundreds of years, thousands of years. | 这又是几百年,几千年。 |
| 1190 | This is what people do in times of plague. | 这就是人们在瘟疫时期所做的. |
| 1191 | They leave the cities and they go to the country. | 他们离开城市去乡下 |
| 1192 | Isaac Newton left London and went to invent a calculus | 艾萨克·牛顿离开伦敦去发明微积分 |
| 1193 | because he was in the country, okay? | 因为他在乡下,好吗? |
| 1194 | This is a very typical thing that's happening. | 这是一个非常典型的事情,正在发生。 |
| 1195 | It's happening in the United States right now | 现在发生在美国 |
| 1196 | and around the world, but it will also reverse. | 和世界各地,但它也会逆转。 |
| 1197 | I think because the argument in favor of cities, | 我认为因为支持城市的争论 |
| 1198 | just like the argument in favor of globalization | 就像支持全球化的论点一样 |
| 1199 | is so compelling that I think five or 10 years from now | 如此有说服力,我认为5到10年后 |
| 1200 | we'll be right back to where we were. | 我们马上回到我们原来的位置 |
| 1201 | I saw that Paris asked a question about whether the virus | 我看见巴黎问了一个问题 病毒是不是 |
| 1202 | will prevent the vaccine from spreading. | 将防止疫苗扩散。 |
| 1203 | I don't know if she's asking a technical question, | 我不知道她是不是在问技术问题 |
| 1204 | which is the vaccine might prevent you from getting sick | 疫苗可以防止你生病 |
| 1205 | if you get infected, but it might not stop you | 如果你被感染了, 但这也许阻止不了你 |
| 1206 | from transmitting the disease if you get infected. | 如果你被感染了 就不会传染疾病 |
| 1207 | And we still don't know this well. | 我们还不知道这一点。 |
| 1208 | AstraZeneca疫苗似乎就是这样。 | |
| 1209 | For the Pfizer and the Moderna, I don't think we know. | 对于辉瑞人和现代人,我想我们不知道. |
| 1210 | And for the Sinovac vaccine in China, | 而对于中国的西诺瓦茨疫苗, |
| 1211 | the attenuated virus, I don't think we know that either. | 我想我们也不知道 |
| 1212 | But so you could get, the vaccine could prevent you | 但是为了让你得到,疫苗可以阻止你 |
| 1213 | from dying if you get sick, | 从你生病时死亡开始 |
| 1214 | but it might not affect the spreading. | 但它不会影响扩散。 |
| 1215 | That's very possible. | 这是非常可能的。 |
| 1216 | And furthermore, just to be clear Paris, | 此外,为了澄清巴黎 |
| 1217 | even if we infect, even if we vaccinate everyone, | 即使我们感染, 即使我们接种每个人, |
| 1218 | it'll be like measles. | 它会像麻疹。 |
| 1219 | That's the best outcome. | 这是最好的结果。 |
| 1220 | The virus is still gonna be in the world. | 病毒还在世界上 |
| 1221 | The virus will still infect people. | 病毒还会感染人 |
| 1222 | It will occasionally will have outbreaks, | 它偶尔会爆发 |
| 1223 | but so the virus is not gonna be eradicated. | 但病毒不会被消灭 |
| 1224 | And also I don't think it is unlike smallpox or polio, | 我也觉得这不像天花或脊髓灰质炎 |
| 1225 | which are their global efforts to eradicate those viruses. | 它们是他们根除这些病毒的全球努力。 |
| 1226 | We know that this coronavirus species can also, for example, | 我们知道,这个冠状病毒物种 也可以,例如, |
| 1227 | live in our dogs and cats or minks or other animals. | 生活在我们的狗、猫、貂或其他动物体内。 |
| 1228 | We know from prior examples like civets | 我们从Civets等以前的例子中知道 |
| 1229 | and pangolins in China. | 和中国的潘果林。 |
| 1230 | Some people ask, by the way, | 有人问,顺便说一句, |
| 1231 | why so many of these epidemics start in China? | 为什么这些流行病有这么多始于中国? |
| 1232 | I think pandemics have begun in every continent | 我想每个大陆都已经开始流行了 |
| 1233 | around the world, so it's not special to China. | 环绕世界,所以对中国来说并不特别. |
| 1234 | One of the reasons of course is China is huge. | 当然原因之一是中国是巨大的. |
| 1235 | So there are very many people in China. | 因此中国人很多. |
| 1236 | So it's not unusual that it would begin there. | 所以从那里开始并不不寻常。 |
| 1237 | Also you have had high density settlements for much longer. | 你们的居住密度也比较高 |
| 1238 | So this is also makes it easier for pandemics. | 因此这也使得传染病更容易发生。 |
| 1239 | You've had big cities for a long history | 很久以来,你们有大城市 |
| 1240 | and the culinary practices in China as well may contribute. | 以及中国的烹饪做法也可能有所贡献。 |
| 1241 | So the fact that, for example, | 所以,比如说, |
| 1242 | people eat bats in China can contribute. | 在中国,人们吃蝙蝠可以作出贡献。 |
| 1243 | So there are a host of factors for that as well. | 因此,也有许多因素。 |
| 1244 | Anyway, the reason I mentioned that is that | 总之,我提到的原因是 |
| 1245 | 如果病毒,如果COVID-19,SARS-CoV-2 | |
| 1246 | also can live in animals, which it can, | 也可以生活在动物中,它可以, |
| 1247 | then it unlike smallpox, which does not live in animals, | 那么它和天花不同, 它不生活在动物身上, |
| 1248 | we will never eradicate a coronavirus. | 我们永远无法消灭冕病毒 |
| 1249 | So in answering Paris's question, | 所以在回答巴黎的问题时 |
| 1250 | the virus will still be with us | 病毒仍然在我们身边 |
| 1251 | even after we vaccinated large numbers of people. | 甚至在我们给很多人接种疫苗之后 |
| 1252 | Okay, last question from me. | 好吧,我最后一个问题。 |
| 1253 | I know there are a lot of questions and these are all great questions, but that's all we have time for. | 我知道有很多问题 这些都是伟大的问题 但我们只有这些时间 |
| 1254 | So go ahead me. | 说吧 |
| 1255 | Oh, right. | 对 |
| 1256 | Hi, Professor. | 嗨,教授,你好吗? |
| 1257 | Thanks for the talk. | 谢谢你的谈话。 |
| 1258 | My question is, do you think that the current coronavirus has already evolved since the time we first discovered it. | 我的问题是,你认为现在的冠状病毒 已经从我们第一次发现它的时候就开始了。 |
| 1259 | So there's a lot of debate about that. | 故此论多论. |
| 1260 | A month or so ago, I would have said, so generally, the viruses evolved to be milder, right, like in general, the theory and evolutionary biology is the virus doesn't want to kill us. | 大约一个月前,我会说, 所以一般来说,病毒进化得比较温和, 对,就像一般的,理论和进化生物学是病毒不想杀死我们。 |
| 1261 | Killing us is bad from the viruses point of view what the virus really wants us to do is is infect us, make us sick so we have symptoms like we sneeze. | 从病毒的角度来看,杀死我们是坏的 病毒真正想要我们做的 是感染我们,让我们生病 所以我们有症状 像我们打喷嚏。 |
| 1262 | And then we keep moving around and sneeze on other people and give the virus to them. | 然后我们不停地转动 并打喷嚏给其他人 并给他们病毒。 |
| 1263 | From the viruses point of view, that's the ideal outcome. | 从病毒的角度来看,这就是理想的结果. |
| 1264 | If the virus infects us and kills us, then we don't spread the virus because we've died. | 如果病毒感染并杀死我们,那么我们不会因为我们死了而传播病毒. |
| 1265 | And so that's not good from the point of view virus and as mild forms of the virus spread more widely than deadlier forms, people get exposed to the mild form acquire immunity because they're exposed to the mild form, and therefore are relatively immune t | 因此从病毒的角度来看,这并不好,随着温和的病毒形式比更致命的形式传播得更广泛,人们接触温和的形式会因为接触温和的形式而获得免疫力,因此相对不受致命形式的影响. |
| 1266 | This is very typical. | 这是非常典型的。 |
| 1267 | It takes years for that to happen, but that's very typical. | 这要花好几年时间才能实现,但这非常典型。 |
| 1268 | So, so people have been monitoring the virus to see, will it evolve to be. | 所以,人们一直在监测病毒的出现, 它会演化成这样吗? |
| 1269 | But it but but mutation is a chance event right there could be a chance event that makes the virus deadlier or more contagious. | 但变异是一种机会事件 可能发生机会事件 使病毒更致命或更具传染性 |
| 1270 | About up until a month or two ago, there was no evidence that the virus had evolved to be more or less contagious or more or less deadly. | 直到一两个月前, 还没有证据表明病毒已经进化 或多或少具有传染性或多或少致命。 |
| 1271 | But literally in the last month, people are beginning to think that one particular mutation of the virus may make it a bit more contagious. | 但从字面上讲,上个月 人们开始认为病毒的某种突变 可能会使其更具传染性。 |
| 1272 | So there's no evidence yet that they're deadlier and less deadly strains. | 所以还没有证据表明它们更致命,更致命的菌株. |
| 1273 | Early on, some people speculated, did the Chinese strain was it less deadly, and that seeded the western United States, and the Italian strain was deadlier killed many Italians and then came to New York, and that seeded the eastern part of the United Stat | 早期有人推测,中国的菌株是否没有那么致命,于是播下了美国西部的种子,意大利的菌株更致命的杀死了许多意大利人,然后来到纽约,播下了美国东部的种子. |
| 1274 | and the outbreak on the eastern United States was worse than the outbreak on the western and people were speculating maybe the virus is different. | 美国东部的疫情 比西部的疫情还严重 人们猜测病毒可能不同 |
| 1275 | That's not the case. | 则不然. |
| 1276 | But there is some recent evidence that the virus certain strain may have evolved to be a bit more contagious. | 但最近有证据表明,病毒的某些菌株 可能已经演化成更具有传染性。 |
| 1277 | Yes, but we still know for sure. | 是的 但我们还是很确定 |
| 1278 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1279 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1280 | Right. | 对 |
| 1281 | These have been great questions. | 这些都是伟大的问题。 |
| 1282 | Unfortunately, that's all the time we have for and thank you, Professor stock is for taking the time to deliver such a fascinating talk. | 不幸的是,这是我们所有的时间 和感谢你, 股票教授是花时间 做这样一个迷人的谈话。 |
| 1283 | My plan is to get all three of your books and to kind of read them all at once so that I can all of them. | 我的计划是把你们的三本书都拿来 一次读一下,这样我就可以全部读了 |
| 1284 | So, thank you so much on that. | 所以,非常感谢你。 |
| 1285 | And as you can tell by the questions people were very much engaged so that's been fantastic I will say for those that you that have questions that didn't get answered. | 正如你所知道的那样, 人们非常参与其中, 这真是太棒了。 我将对那些有问题却没有得到回答的人说。 |
| 1286 | They will see and Francis and everybody else. | 他们会看到弗朗西斯和其他人 |
| 1287 | I will say that actually next week we have Professor Frank Snowden who is a historian who specializes in the history of epidemics, talking with us. | 我会说,实际上下周 我们有弗兰克·斯诺登教授 他是一个历史学家 他专门研究流行病的历史, 和我们交谈。 |
| 1288 | So, very much in line with what we talked about today and probably a little more of the historical examples that we can draw from to talk about modern society and how that's actually been pretty much the same from what I understand. | 所以,非常符合我们今天所谈论的, 可能更多一些历史的例子, 我们可以从中汲取,来谈论现代社会, 从我的理解来看,这实际上几乎是一样的。 |
| 1289 | So, thank you again. | 所以,再次谢谢你。 |
| 1290 | That was fantastic. | 这太棒了。 |
| 1291 | Hopefully, when your book comes out in 10 years your next book will be able to have another talk and hopefully sooner of course when we can travel again we'd love to have you visit the center in person. | 希望10年后你的书出来后... ...你的下一本书能再谈一次... ...而且希望我们再旅行的时候... |
| 1292 | Thank you so much for having me and if any of you I only saw some faces so if I have former students that are here or collaborators. | 非常谢谢你邀请我 如果你们中有人我只看到一些面孔 所以如果我有前学生在这里 或合作。 |
| 1293 | Some of my Chinese co authors and collaborators I'm grateful to all of you for your work and contributions and and all of the students that signed in. | 我的一些中国共同作者和合作者,感谢你们大家的作品和贡献,感谢所有报名的学生. |
| 1294 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 1295 | Great. | 不错 |
| 1296 | And so what I'll do is I'll unmute everybody and have everybody be able to thank you and if you're willing please turn on your cameras and we can take a group photo to commemorate at the end. | 所以,我要做的是 解除对每个人的指责, 让所有人都能感谢你, 如果你愿意的话,请打开你的摄像机, 我们可以拍一张集体照片, 来最后纪念。 |
| 1297 | So, thank you all. | 谢谢大家 |
| 1298 | And have a good evening for those of you in China and the good rest of the day. | 祝大家晚上愉快 祝你们今天愉快 |
| 1299 | If you're in the US. | 若在美国. |
| 1300 | Thank you, Professor. | 谢谢你,教授 |
| 1301 | Thank you so much. | 非常感谢 |
| 1302 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1303 | Thank you, Professor. | 谢谢你,教授 |
| 1304 | Thank you guys. | 谢谢 |
| 1305 | Bye bye. | 再见 |
| 1306 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1307 | Bye bye. | 再见 |
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