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和耶鲁顶尖环境专家从城市的一点一滴出发了解可持续发展

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时间英文中文
0:04I just want to say good day to everyone, especially to our speaker, Yale professor我只是想跟大家说再见 尤其是我们的演讲人耶鲁教授
0:09Karen Zito, and also some of our participants from the 2021 and 2022 Smart Talks on ClimateKaren Zito,以及2021年和2022年气候问题智能会谈的部分参与者
0:18Change program.变更程序.
0:20Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event on the 21st century urbanization欢迎来到耶鲁中心 北京21世纪城市化活动
0:27and grand challenges for global sustainability, which is part of the Greenberg Distinguished以及全球可持续性面临的巨大挑战,这是格林伯格杰出
0:32Colloquium featuring plot leaders who play pivotal roles in building bridges between学术讨论会由在建立桥梁方面发挥关键作用的图谋领导人参加。
0:38China and the US.中国和美国.
0:40我是北京耶鲁中心执行董事Carolee Rafferty 还有
0:46a Yale College alumna.a 耶鲁大学校友。
0:48For those of you who may be new to the Yale Center Beijing or events,对于你们中那些刚来过耶鲁中心的人来说
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序号英文中文
1I just want to say good day to everyone, especially to our speaker, Yale professor我只是想跟大家说再见 尤其是我们的演讲人耶鲁教授
2Karen Zito, and also some of our participants from the 2021 and 2022 Smart Talks on ClimateKaren Zito,以及2021年和2022年气候问题智能会谈的部分参与者
3Change program.变更程序.
4Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event on the 21st century urbanization欢迎来到耶鲁中心 北京21世纪城市化活动
5and grand challenges for global sustainability, which is part of the Greenberg Distinguished以及全球可持续性面临的巨大挑战,这是格林伯格杰出
6Colloquium featuring plot leaders who play pivotal roles in building bridges between学术讨论会由在建立桥梁方面发挥关键作用的图谋领导人参加。
7China and the US.中国和美国.
8我是北京耶鲁中心执行董事Carolee Rafferty 还有
9a Yale College alumna.a 耶鲁大学校友。
10For those of you who may be new to the Yale Center Beijing or events,对于你们中那些刚来过耶鲁中心的人来说
11the center is Yale University's only university-wide center outside of the US.中心是耶鲁大学唯一的全美大学中心
12Throughout the year,一整年里,
13we host activities such as these, convening leaders from all sectors to discuss the most我们主办这样的活动,召集所有部门的领导人讨论
14cutting-edge, important, and critical issues facing our world.我们的世界面临的尖端、重要和关键问题。
15Today, I'm so delighted今天,我很高兴
16to be able to invite professor Karen Zito to discuss trends in urbanization, which is能够邀请Karen Zito教授讨论城市化的趋势,即
17happening rapidly and at such an unprecedented scale, and the opportunities and challenges迅速发生和规模空前,机会和挑战
18urbanization presents for global sustainability.城市化带来了全球可持续性。
19Karen Zito is the Frederick C. Hexen Professor凯伦・齐托是弗雷德里克・C・赫克森教授
20of Geography and Urbanization Science at Yale University.耶鲁大学地理和城市化科学学院。
21An urban and land change scientist,一位城市和土地变化科学家,
22she's one of the world's leading experts on contemporary urbanization and global change.她是当代城市化和全球变化的世界领先专家之一.
23She uses satellite, remote sensing, field interviews, and modeling methods to understand她利用卫星、遥感、现场访谈和建模方法来理解
24how urbanization will affect the planet, including land change, food systems, biodiversity,城市化将如何影响地球,包括土地变化、粮食系统、生物多样性、
25and climate change.气候变化。
26She has pioneered methods to reconstruct urban land use with satellite imagery她开创了利用卫星图像重建城市土地利用的方法
27and has developed novel methods to forecast urban expansion.并开发了预测城市扩张的新方法.
28She has extensive fieldwork experience她有丰富的实地工作经验
29in Asia, sorry about that, especially China and India, and I understand that she'll be traveling在亚洲,对不起, 特别是中国和印度, 我知道她会旅行
30to India soon, where she has conducted research for over 20 and 10 years respectively.不久,她在印度分别进行了20年和10年以上的研究。
31Professor教授
32Zito serves on numerous national and international scientific bodies.Zito在众多国家和国际科学机构任职。
33She currently co-chairs the U.S.她目前担任美国共同主席.
34National Academy's Climate Security Roundtable, established by the direction of the U.S. Congress国家学院气候安全圆桌会议,由美国国会指示设立.
35to help better understand and anticipate the ways climate change affects U.S. national security帮助更好地了解和预测气候变化如何影响美国国家安全
36interests.权益。
37She also co-chairs the U.S. National Academy Subcommittee on U.S.-China Scientific她还担任美国国家科学院美国-中国科学小组委员会共同主席。
38Engagement.订婚
39She has been a coordinating lead author for the IPCC sixth and fifth assessment她一直是气专委第六次和第五次评估的协调牵头作者。
40reports.报告。
41From 2000 to 2008, she was faculty at Stanford, where she held joint appointments in从2000年到2008年,她在斯坦福大学担任教职,在那里,她曾于2000年和2008年在斯坦福大学联合任职。
42the Woods Institute for the Environment and the School of Earth Sciences.森林环境研究所和地球科学学院。
43She has received many她收到了许多
44awards for her scientific contributions, including the Outstanding Contributions to科学贡献奖,包括
45Remote Sensing Research Award from the American Association of Geographers.美国地理学家协会遥感研究奖.
46Professor Zito is齐托教授
47the member, as a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts作为美国国家科学院、美国艺术科学院的成员
48and Sciences, the Connecticut Academy of Science and Engineering, and the American Association for康涅狄格科学与工程学院和美国
49the Advancement of Science.科学的进步。
50She received her Ph.D. in geography from Boston University.她获得了波士顿大学的地理博士学位.
51And as a short note, I'm so delighted to welcome her back to the Yale Center of Beijing for an简而言之,我很高兴欢迎她回到北京耶鲁中心
52event, albeit virtually, because the last time she was able to come was back in 2014 and 2015,事件,尽管几乎是,因为她最后一次能来是在2014年和2015年,
53when the Center first started.当中心开始。
54So I hope that we might be able to get you back for a tenth year,所以我希望我们能把你带回十年
55maybe.也许
56So today's event will proceed as follows.因此,今天的活动将如下。
57Professor Zito will give a presentation followedZito教授随后将发表演讲
58由Q&A.
59All of you participants are welcome to type your questions in the chat box as we speak,欢迎各位与会者在我们发言时 在聊天箱里输入你们的问题
60and I'll select the questions and later unmute some of you to pose your questions.我将选择问题 并随后解密 你们中的一些人 提出你的问题。
61I may also我也会
62ask some questions that the Yale Center Beijing team has collected in advance.问耶鲁中心北京队事先收集的一些问题.
63Without further ado,不用再多说了
64let's welcome Professor Zito.欢迎齐托教授
65Thank you.谢谢
66Thank you, Carol.谢谢你,卡罗尔。
67And it's really nice to be back to回来真好
68Yale Center Beijing, even if it's just virtually.耶鲁中心北京,即使它只是几乎。
69But it's nice to see the center behind you.但看见你身后的中央真好
70So这么说
71it's nice to be here virtually.很高兴能来这里
72So I will spend the next 35 or 40 minutes talking about所以我接下来要花35到40分钟
7321st century urbanization trends and really highlighting at a very high level what these21世纪的城市化趋势,并在非常高的层次上真正突出
74trends mean for sustainability at the global level.趋势意味着全球一级的可持续性。
75So I'm going to focus on the challenges所以我要专注于挑战
76that urbanization presents for global sustainability.城市化带来了全球可持续性。
77So I'd like to start off with所以我想先说
78some general statistics first.先是一些一般统计数字。
79So we right now are twenty twenty three.所以,我们现在是23。
80Let's see where we're让我们看看我们在哪里
81twenty twenty three.二十三岁
82We have almost about four and a half billion people living in cities and towns.我们大约有45亿人生活在城镇中。
83One of the things that I want to remind everyone is that this is a incredible change over a very我想提醒大家的一件事是 这是一个不可思议的变化 而不是一个非常
84short period.时间短。
85As recently as 1950, that's less than 100 years ago.最近到1950年,还不到一百年前.
86We had fewer than one billion我们只有不到十亿
87people living in cities and towns.居住在城镇的人。
88So in less than 100 years, our urban population has increased在不到100年的时间里,我们的城市人口增长了
89significantly to over four, four and a half billion people.超过45亿人口
90And the most recent U.N. estimate is that联合国最新估计是
91by 2050, our global population will reach 10 billion people.到2050年,全球人口将达到100亿人。
92Of those 10 billion people,在这100亿人口中,
93six point seven billion will be living in cities and towns.670亿人口将生活在城镇中。
94So that means that over the next 30所以,这意味着在未来30年
95or so years, we're adding about two and a half billion people to cities and towns.大约几年,我们增加了大约25亿人 到城镇。
96Just to put this into perspective, that means that every five days the urban population is仅仅从这个角度来说,这意味着每5天城市人口
97increasing by one million people every five days, one million people.每五天增加100万人,100万人。
98So here's a picture of所以这里的图片
99Shanghai.上海报.
100Maybe some of you are from Shanghai or based in Shanghai.也许你们中有些人来自上海或者总部在上海.
101This is a picture of Shanghai这是上海的照片
102in the early 80s.在80年代早期。
103And this is Shanghai today.这是今天的上海。
104So this is a kind of urban development that I imagine因此,这是一种城市发展,我想
105many of you on the call have witnessed in your own life.你们中的很多人 都亲眼目睹了你们的生活
106But I want to underscore that this is not但我要强调,这不是
107only happening in very big cities like Shanghai, it's also happening in rural places.只有发生在上海这样的大城市, 也发生在农村。
108We are seeing我们看见了
109urbanization in rural places such as what you see here.农村的城市化,比如你在这里看到的。
110This is in Nepal.这是在尼泊尔。
111This is a picture taken in这是一张照片
112one of my field sites in Nepal in the Himalayas.在喜马拉雅山的尼泊尔,
113This is in the early 90s.这是在90年代初。
114And this is the same这是相同的
115place just in the 2010s.刚刚在2010年代。
116So in about 20 years, we see this pretty significant change even in所以在20年左右,我们看到了这个 相当显著的变化,即使是在
117the Himalayas.喜马拉雅山脉。
118So urban populations are increasing, but another really important trend is that average因此,城市人口正在增加, 但另一个真正重要的趋势是平均
119household size is declining.家庭规模正在下降。
120And this is happening again all around the world, where the most recent这又发生在世界各地, 在那里最近的
121statistics coming out of China show that this is also a trend happening in China.来自中国的统计数字表明,这也是中国出现的趋势。
122So here I show所以我在这里展示
123five countries, US, New Zealand, Australia, the UK and Canada.五个国家,美国、新西兰、澳大利亚、联合王国和加拿大。
124I could show any country in the world我可以向全世界任何国家展示
125and the trend would be the same, very, very similar.并且这个趋势是相同的,非常,非常相似。
126The only difference is that the y-axis唯一的区别是Y轴
127would be different.这将是不同的。
128In the US, the average household size was about three and a half在美国,平均家庭规模约为3个半
129in 1960.(原始内容存档于1960年). In 1960.
130And today it is about two and a half.今天大约是两个半。
131If we were looking at African countries,如果我们看着非洲国家,
132this y-axis would be seven or eight, going down to about five or six.这个Y轴是7或8, 下降约5或6。
133But again, we would see a very,但再说一遍,我们会看到一个非常,
134very similar trend all around the world.全世界的趋势都非常相似
135So populations are increasing, but household sizes因此,人口不断增加,但家庭规模
136are declining.正在下降。
137The other big trend is that new home sizes are also increasing.另一个大趋势是,新的家庭规模也在增加。
138So in 1973, the average size of a new house in the United States was about 1,600 square feet.因此1973年,美国新房子的平均规模约为1600平方英尺.
139And today it's almost 2,800 square feet.而今天它几乎是2800平方英尺.
140And again, this is the same trend all around the world.同样,全世界的趋势也一样。
141The only difference is that the y-axis would be different if we were looking at China唯一的区别是,如果我们看中国,Y轴会不同
142or other countries.或其他国家。
143So what does this all mean?这是什么意思?
144So these are three big urbanization challenges,这就是三大城市化挑战,
145increases in population, declining household size, but increasing size of the homes themselves.人口增加,家庭规模减少,但家庭本身规模增加。
146I will just briefly, very briefly talk about what this means for land and resources, food,我将简短地,非常简短地谈谈这对土地和资源、粮食意味着什么。
147biodiversity, and then I'll end with some discussion about climate change.最后我要谈谈气候变化。
148So first of all, the increase in population requires land, right?首先,人口增长需要土地,对吧?
149We need land to build homes,我们需要土地来建造家园
150to build schools, hospitals, roads.建造学校、医院、道路。
151And we've done some research in my lab where we have forecasted我们在我的实验室做了一些研究 在那里我们预测
152urban land expansion going out to 2050.城市土地扩张至2050年.
153So I'm showing the work of one of my PhD students,所以我在展示我一个博士生的作品
154Hanning Huang, who is now a professor actually in China at NYU Shanghai.黄咸宁,现为纽约大学上海分校中国实际教授.
155And he has forecasted the growth of land all around the world.他预测了世界各地土地的增长。
156And what you see here in this你在这里看到的
157map are probabilities that different areas will become urban.地图是不同地区将成为城市的概率。
158So anything in red indicates higher所以,任何红色的表示 更高
159probability that this will become urban land by 2050.有可能到2050年成为城市土地。
160And the lighter colors and yellow颜色和黄色
161means that it still has a probability, but not a hundred percent.表示它仍然有概率,但不是100%。
162So lower probability,这么低的概率,
163but still probability that it will become urban.但还是有可能变成城市
164If we look at China and India, we see that如果我们看看中国和印度,我们就会看到
165there's going, we forecast a lot of new urban expansion in the center part of the country.接下来,我们预测,中部地区将出现许多新的城市扩张。
166And if we look at India, what's interesting is that we forecast a lot of new urban development,如果我们看看印度,有趣的是 我们预测了很多新的城市发展,
167but very small scale.但规模很小。
168So you can imagine rather than in China, where you have big mega urban所以,你可以想象,而不是在中国, 在这里,你拥有巨大的城市
169regions, in India, you have smaller towns and cities becoming larger.在印度,小城镇和城市变得更大。
170So they're more discreet.所以他们比较谨慎
171And the same thing we're forecasting for sub-Saharan Africa.同样的事情,我们预测 撒哈拉以南非洲。
172But this is one of the但这是其中之一
173biggest impacts that we're seeing is land, the loss of land.我们所看到的最大的影响是土地,土地的损失。
174If we looked and see what this might如果我们看看,看看这可能是什么
175mean in terms of how much new land.意味着多少新土地。
176So let's just focus here on this last row.所以,让我们集中在这里 最后一行。
177Here, this is the total amount of urban land around the world in square kilometers in 2015.这里,这是2015年全世界城市土地的总面积,以平方公里计.
178These are different scenarios, SSP 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.这些是不同的情景,SSP 1, 2, 3, 4和5.
179SSP 2 is basically a middle of the road.SSP 2基本上是一个中间路段.
180Basically, if we continued, if the world economies continue to develop as is.基本上,如果我们继续,如果世界经济继续发展。
181This SSP 5 is one where we see rapid urban and economic development that's really fueled by这个SSP 5是我们看到城市和经济发展迅速的地方, 而城市和经济发展真的由
182fossil fuels.化石燃料。
183And we can see in this scenario, we can almost see a doubling of the urban我们可以看到,在这个情景中, 我们几乎可以看到城市翻了一番
184footprint, nearly a doubling of the urban footprint.足迹 城市足迹几乎翻了一番
185Even in the middle of the road,即使在路中间
186we're expecting to see over 150,000 square kilometers of new urban land.我们期望看到超过15万平方公里的新城市土地。
187The point that I want to highlight here is that there's a very large range,我想强调的一点是 范围很广
188depending on what will happen to the world's economy.取决于世界经济将发生什么。
189But if we take the average of these但是如果我们把平均这些
190forecasts, what this means is that we're expecting to see a lot of new urban development happening预测,这意味着,我们期待看到许多新的城市发展
191every single day.每一天都这样
192This is a picture of an American football field.这是一张美国足球场的照片。
193It is equal to这等于
19420,000 American football fields becoming urban every single day for the next 40 years.在接下来的40年里,每天有2万个美国足球场成为城市.
195So someplace on the planet, we will see 20,000 American football fields becoming urban.地球上的某个地方,我们会看到两万个美国足球场变成城市。
196If we如果我们
197were to aggregate all this new land, all this new urban land, it will be the equivalent of these four这些新土地,这些新城市土地, 将相当于这四块土地
198countries.国家。
199It's a lot of land.其地甚广.
200So it's the land of these four countries, France, Germany, Spain,所以这是这四个国家的土地 法国 德国 西班牙
201Italy combined.意大利加起来。
202So it's a lot of land.故曰多地.
203What does this mean for resources?这对资源意味着什么?
204So that's just land that所以那只是陆地
205we were just talking about.我们只是在谈论。
206But if we look at the resources required to build the built environment,但是如果我们看看建设建筑环境所需的资源,
207I want to highlight what this new urban area will look like.我想强调这个新的城市地区将是什么样子。
208These are graphs that show这些图显示
209the development of cities in both the lateral dimension, so lateral expansion.城市的横向发展,所以横向扩张。
210So this is这就是
211outward growth.外向增长.
212But on the y-axis, this shows upward growth, so vertical development.但是在y轴上,这显示了向上增长,所以垂直发展.
213The colors indicate increase in density.颜色表示密度增加。
214These colors that are purple and black,这些颜色是紫黑色的,
215they mean that vertical growth in places that were already urban in an earlier period.它们意味着在较早时期就已经是城市地区的纵向增长。
216So what I'm showing here are six Indian cities.我在这里展示的是六个印度城市。
217And what you can see here is over a 10-year period,你可以看到的是10年的时间里
218Indian cities are primarily going to grow outward.印度城市主要向外发展.
219So they're outward.所以他们是外向的。
220So there's this是这样的
221lateral expansion.横向扩张.
222But there's very little upward expansion.但向上扩张很少.
223Do you see these little arrows here?你看到这些小箭了吗?
224There's a little bit of upward expansion.有一点向上扩张.
225So Indian cities are growing out, but they're not因此,印度的城市正在成长,但它们不是
226growing up very much.长大了很多。
227Okay.摆
228So here we see African cities.我们在这里看到了非洲城市。
229So African cities over this 10-year period,因此在这十年里,非洲城市,
230they're also growing outward and a little bit upward, but not very much.它们也向外发展 向上增长一点点 但并不太多
231So I want everyone to所以我希望每个人都
232put in their chat.让他们聊聊天
233If folks can just pull up in the chat, I'm going to show如果人们可以拉起 在聊天,我要去显示
234Chinese cities in a minute.中国城市一瞬间.
235What do you expect Chinese cities to look like?中国城市长什么样子?
236Can people just type in the chat?人们能打个字吗?
237What do you expect these arrows to look like?你期望这些箭看起来像什么?
238Carol, could you just read off some of these?卡罗尔,你能读一下这些吗?
239Because I can't see my chat right now.因为我现在看不到我的谈话
240Sure.当然
241Let me see.让我看看。
242Upwards dramatically.向上明显。
243Okay.摆
244Upwards dramatically.向上明显。
245Grow both out and up.既长出与上.
246Higher, but not very much outward.更高,但不太对外。
247Okay.摆
248All right.好吧,我们走。
249So the side, thanks Carol.这边,谢谢卡罗尔。
250So the sides of these arrows indicate how much.因此,这些箭头的侧面表明了多少.
251So the longer the arrow means more expansion.所以箭的长度越长,就意味着更多的扩张.
252And the longer the arrow, if it's vertical,而箭越长,如果它是垂直的,
253means very high cities.意味着非常高的城市。
254So somebody said high, but not very up.所以有人说高,但不太高。
255All right.好吧,我们走。
256So A for that student or所以A给那个学生,或者
257whoever it is, put that in the chat.不管是谁 把那个放到聊天室
258So we can see Chinese cities over this last 10-year period因此,我们可以看到中国的城市 在过去10年的时间里
259from 1999 to 2009 have grown dramatically upwards.从1999年到2009年,增长迅速。
260So you can see Shanghai, that picture that I just这样你就能看见上海,那张照片,我只是
261showed, very, very high.显示,非常,非常高。
262A city like Beijing, a lot of upward growth, but not as high as Shanghai像北京这样的城市,很多向上增长,但比不上上海
263and a lot of outward growth, much more lateral growth.和大量的外向增长, 更多的横向增长。
264And then if we look at smaller cities,然后如果我们看看小城市,
265so here in the south in Dongguan, you can see it's still upward, but a lot more lateral growth.所以在东莞的南部, 你可以看到它仍然向上, 但更多的横向增长。
266And if we were to look at smaller Chinese cities, like in central China or in western China,如果我们看看中国较小的城市 比如中国中部或西部
267we would actually see that those cities look a lot more like African and more like Indian cities,我们其实会看到这些城市 更像非洲城市 更像印度城市,
268that they're smaller in scale and not a lot of upward growth.说它们的规模较小,没有太多向上增长。
269So we see a lot of upward growth.因此我们看到了很多向上的增长。
270What this means is we can translate this to raw materials, the raw material demand.这意味着,我们可以将它转化为原材料,原材料需求。
271And globally, what we are expecting between now and 2050 is with all these cities growing从全球来看,现在到2050年,我们所期望的 是所有这些城市都在增长
272out upward, it's going to require a lot of new concrete, steel, and raw materials.需要大量新的混凝土 钢材和原材料
273And the UN estimates that the raw materials to build and operate cities will more than double联合国估计,建造和运营城市的原材料将增加一倍以上。
274from 40 billion tons a year to 90 billion tons.从每年400亿吨到900亿吨。
275And they conclude that the high demand for such他们得出结论,这种需求很高,
276raw materials far exceeds what the planet can sustainably provide.原材料远远超出了地球可持续提供的能力。
277So this is one of所以这是其中之一
278the biggest challenges.最大的挑战。
279How can we continue to build cities in a way that does not require我们如何以不需要的方式继续建设城市?
280so much raw materials?这么多原料?
281This is a big design and engineering challenge.这是一个巨大的设计和工程挑战。
282I'm going to transition我要去过渡
283to talk about food systems.谈论食物系统。
284So if we know that urbanization requires land, so here's a picture所以,如果我们知道城市化需要土地, 所以这里有一个图片
285of Chinese city, new urban development encroaching on agricultural land, we know that if cities take新的城市发展侵蚀了农地 我们知道如果城市占据
286land, they're going to take land in places that used to be agriculture.他们将在曾经是农业的地方夺取土地。
287So here's an example of举个例子
288that.那个
289But it's not happening only in China.但并非只在中国发生.
290So this last picture was in China.所以,这最后一张照片是在中国。
291This is a picture这是一张画
292in the US.在美国
293Urban development is also taking up prime agricultural land in the US, but it's not城市发展也占据了美国的主要农业用地,但不是
294only happening in the US, it's happening in Egypt.只有在美国,它发生在埃及。
295It's happening all around the world.普现一切世界.
296The most productive agricultural land are being taken up by urban development.城市发展占用了生产力最高的农田。
297This is a huge challenge.这是一个巨大的挑战。
298Now, this is work also done in my lab.这是在我的实验室里做的
299If we were to look globally如果我们从全球看
300at the amount of agricultural land that's being lost to urban expansion,由于城市扩张而损失的农田数量,
301this is the total amount right here.这是这里的总金额。
302It's about 2% of the global crop land is being lost to urban大约全球2%的耕地被城市占用
303expansion.扩张。
304So that's not that much.所以,这不是太多。
305But if we look at the productivity of this land,但是如果我们看看这片土地的生产力
306if this number was one, it means that the land that's being lost is equal in productivity to如果这个数字是一个,这意味着 失去的土地 生产力等于
307the national average.全国平均水平。
308This number is 1.77.这个号码是1.77。
309So this means that it is almost twice as productive as the也就是说它几乎是
310average, more productive than national.平均,比国家生产力高。
311And if we look at very specific countries,如果我们看看非常具体的国家,
312so if we look at, for example, Nigeria, Nigeria is estimated to lose almost 6% of its crop land,因此,如果我们看看,例如尼日利亚,估计尼日利亚将损失近6%的耕地,
313Pakistan will lose about seven and a half.巴基斯坦将损失约7个半.
314Egypt is estimated to lose a third of its crop land埃及估计损失三分之一的耕地
315to urban expansion.到城市扩张。
316And Vietnam will lose about 10%.而越南将损失约10%.
317So this is really dramatic.所以,这是真的戏剧性。
318And if we look at如果我们看
319Africa back here, the agricultural land that will be lost is significantly more productive.回到这里的非洲,将失去的农业用地的生产力要大得多。
320So this is going to be pretty substantive.因此,这将是相当实质性的。
321And if we look at specific crops like maize, rice,如果我们看看特定的作物,比如玉米,水稻,
322soybean and wheat, we see that for wheat, Africa will lose about a quarter of its wheat production.豆类和小麦,我们看到,对于小麦,非洲将损失其小麦产量的四分之一左右。
323China will lose about 13% of its wheat production to urban development.中国将损失约13%的小麦产量用于城市发展.
324So we're going to lose a所以我们会失去一个
325lot of very productive agricultural land due to urbanization.许多非常有生产力的农田 由于城市化。
326But the other part of urban但另一个城市
327impacts on food system is through demand.对粮食系统的影响是通过需求。
328And one of the biggest things that we're seeing with我们所看到的其中一件大事
329urbanization, especially in places like in China and also in Africa, is a significant change in城市化,特别是在中国和非洲等地的城市化是一个重大变化。
330diets and an increase in food away from home and an increase in fast foods.饮食与家外饮食增加,快餐增加.
331In the food literature,在食物文献中,
332there's a very big literature that shows that as countries urbanize and as they get richer,有一种非常大 的文献显示, 随着国家城市化 和它们变得更富,
333there's what is called a nutrition transition.这就是所谓的营养过渡。
334People go from eating, they're foraging for plants,人们从吃饭开始, 他们为植物觅食,
335they're eating just plants that they find.他们只吃他们找到的植物
336They go from that to legumes and from legumes to他们从那里到豆类 从豆类到豆类
337wheats and grains.小麦和谷物。
338So like rice and wheats.故如稻麦.
339And from wheats and grains, they go to dairies他们从麦子和谷粒中去乳房,
340and processed sugars and eating much more meat.和加工糖 和吃更多的肉。
341This is a very well-known nutrition transition这是一个众所周知的营养转型
342that's been documented all around the world.全世界都有记录
343What we see is a new urban transition.我们看到的是新的城市过渡。
344In addition to the transition that I just talked about, the other thing that we're seeing is an除了我刚才提到的过渡之外,我们看到的另一件事是
345increase in the food away from home.增加远离家的食物。
346So these are data from 80 countries.这些数据来自80个国家。
347So each dot represents所以每个点代表
348a country.一个国家。
349And on the y-axis, this is the percentage of the country's population that is urban.在Y轴上,这是全国城市人口的百分比。
350And here on the x-axis, this is the percentage of food that is consumed away from home.在X轴上,这是离家消费的食物的百分比。
351You see a very clear and positive correlation that the more a population, a country's population你可以看到一个非常明确和积极的关联 越是人口,一个国家的人口
352is urban, the larger percentage of the food that is actually consumed away from home.城市,实际在家庭以外消费的食品比例较高。
353There's a lot of different reasons for this.其原因各异.
354Urban populations means that often you have dual城市人口意味着你经常有双重性
355incomes.收入。
356So both members of both of the heads of households are working.因此,两个家庭的户主都在工作。
357So there's less time to所以时间不多了
358prepare food and eat at home.在家准备食物和吃饭。
359If both people are working at the office, they're more likely to eat如果两人都在办公室工作 他们更有可能吃东西
360food at the office going out.办公室的食物出去。
361And so what we're seeing is if you imagine a world where所以,我们所看到的是 如果你想象一个世界,
362most of the population is urban, this means that most of an increasing percentage of our大部分人口是城市人口,这意味着我们人口中大多数人口正在增加。
363is actually consumed away from home.其实是远离家消耗的。
364Another aspect of this is that as we eat more food away另一方面是,当我们吃 更多的食物离开
365from home and as we have longer supply chains, this has a big impact on what is called cold我们拥有更长的供应链 这对所谓的冷有重大影响
366chain logistics.连锁物流.
367So back in the olden day, when we used to shop more frequently for food,以前我们经常买东西买东西
368food didn't have to be refrigerated as much.食物不需要冷藏这么多
369But as we shop less frequently and we go to a larger但是,当我们购物少 频繁,我们去一个更大的
370supermarkets like Carrefour or Walmart, you know, these larger chains, it means that we're像家乐福或沃尔玛这样的超市 这些更大的连锁店意味着我们
371actually buying foods that are refrigerated.实际购买冷藏食品.
372So here on the bottom, you see this picture of a因此,这里的底部, 你看这张照片,
373storage unit for fruit that has to be refrigerated.必须冷藏的水果的储存单位。
374We've seen trucks that have to be refrigerated.我们已经看到卡车必须冷藏。
375So this has a really big impact in terms of the energy demand to refrigerate the food,这对冷冻食品的能源需求 有很大的影响
376to bring the food to our cities.把食物带到我们的城市
377This cold chain logistic is enormous.这种冷链物流是巨大的。
378It means that we have to这意味着我们必须
379build warehouses like this up in the upper right-hand corner that are all chilled to chill our food在右上角建这样的仓库 冷却我们的食物
380so that the food does not spoil during this transportation process.在运输过程中,食物不会腐烂。
381And it's also not only不仅如此
382for fruits and vegetables, but also for seafood.水果和蔬菜,还有海鲜。
383And one of the most interesting innovations也是最有趣的创新之一
384around seafood is designing packaging and also cultivating fish that can live outside of water海鲜周围正在设计包装和养殖能生活在水外的鱼
385for long periods of time.长时期。
386This is fascinating.这太有趣了。
387So there are some types of fish now that we are所以现在有些种类的鱼了
388eating that are able to live outside of water for like six or eight hours.吃着能活在水外6到8个小时的食物
389It's incredible, right?这是不可思议的,对不对?
390And so anyway, so there's this whole new, you know, development in the food industry所以,总之,有 一个全新的,你知道的,食品业的发展
391so that we can have these longer supply chains.这样我们就可以拥有更长的供应链。
392So I've talked about land resources.因此,我谈到了土地资源。
393I'm goingи璶ǐ
394to switch to talking about urbanization's impacts and challenges for biodiversity.转向谈论城市化对生物多样性的影响和挑战。
395So what we are seeing is around the world on the Y-X axis, a significant increase in urban land.因此,我们所看到的是世界各地在Y-X轴线上,城市土地显著增加。
396So I showed some of those numbers earlier.所以,我早些时候展示了其中的一些数字。
397What this means is that there's a significant decline这意味着有显著的下降
398in the habitat range, the amount of habitat that's available to species.在栖息地范围, 物种可用的栖息地的数量。
399So we look at所以我们看
4001700, we had very little urban land, but we had a lot of habitat.1700年,我们拥有的城市土地很少,但我们拥有许多栖息地.
401Now we're in the 2000s,现在我们在2000年代,
402we have a lot of urban land and a lot of agricultural land.我们拥有许多城市土地和许多农业用地。
403And there's been this还有这个
404significant decline, an 18% decline in habitats available.现有生境显著下降,下降18%。
405So one thing is the loss of habitat,所以有一件事是失去栖息地,
406but the other thing that's being affected is as we have cities, we have lights.但另外一件事 正在受到影响 因为我们有城市, 我们有灯。
407And when we have当我们有了
408nighttime lights have a big impact on biodiversity.夜间灯光对生物多样性有重大影响。
409So they have a big impact on things like bats,所以他们对蝙蝠之类的东西有很大的影响
410on owls, on lizards, salamanders, frogs, lots of different animals are actually affected by猫头鹰、蜥蜴、山羊、青蛙 许多不同的动物实际上都受到
411nighttime lights and their ability to forage at night, to eat at night, but also many animals晚上的灯光和夜里觅食的能力 还有很多动物
412actually meet at night.其实是在晚上见面的
413So this has a very big impact on reproduction of species.因此这对物种的繁殖有着非常大的影响.
414The other另一个
415thing is that urbanization is accelerating evolution.城市化正在加速进化。
416And so this is being documented因此,这是记录
417all around the world and it's many different species that are rapidly evolving, partly because世界各地的物种都在迅速演变 部分原因是
418of new environments, but partly because of different species coming together, novel species新的环境,但部分原因 不同的物种聚集在一起, 新的物种
419interacting and each species actually evolving rapidly because they are interacting with novel相互作用,每个物种都迅速进化 因为它们与新事物相互作用
420species.物种。
421What we forecast, so this is again, work being done in my lab, we forecast that future我们预测,所以这是再次, 工作在我的实验室,我们预测未来
422urbanization going out to 2050 will have a very big impact on biodiversity loss.到2050年的城市化将对生物多样性的丧失产生重大影响。
423We expect that我们期望
424will involve at least the loss of more than 400 types of reptiles, more than 200 species of将至少涉及400多种爬行动物的丧失,200多种爬行动物的丧失。
425amphibians and over a hundred species of mammals and birds.两栖动物和一百多个哺乳动物和鸟类物种.
426So this is going to future urbanization因此,这是未来的城市化
427will drive more and more biodiversity loss.生物多样性将日益丧失。
428So finally, in my last time remaining, I want to最后,在我最后剩下的时间,我想
429So about a year ago, we published the sixth assessment report of the IPCC.大约一年前,我们发表了气专委的第六次评估报告。
430So this is the所以这是
431UN climate report that's published about every five years or so.大约每五年出版一次的联合国气候报告。
432And one of the big results from最大的成果之一来自
433that report is that in the 10 years between 2010 to 2019, greenhouse gas emissions were the highest该报告指出,在2010年至2019年的十年中,温室气体排放量最高。
434they've ever been in human history.他们曾经在人类历史上。
435And we have seen that the earth has already warmed one degree我们看到地球已经暖和了1度
436C since 1850.从1850年起C.
437We like to use 1850 as a starting point because that is around the time of the我们喜欢用1850年作为起点,因为那是大约在
438industrial revolution.工业革命。
439That's around the time when we started using a lot of greenhouse, a lot of那时我们开始使用很多温室,很多
440fossil fuels.化石燃料。
441We are warming about one degree since 1850.我们从1850年起就升温了
442And that the report indicates it报告上说
443concludes we are not on track to limit global warming to one and a half degrees C. The reason结论是,我们没有走上将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度的轨道。 原因
444why we talk about one and a half degrees C, two things I want to emphasize, this one and a half为什么我们谈论一个半摄氏度, 两件事我想强调,这个半
445degrees C is from 1850.C度从1850年。
446So that is the starting point.这就是起点。
447Whenever you see people talking, scientists当你看到人们说话,科学家们
448talking about the one and a half degrees C limit, it is in comparison to 1850.说到一个半摄氏度的极限 和1850年相比
449And the reason why we而我们为什么
450talk about one and a half degrees C is really for two reasons.谈论一个半摄氏度的C 其实有两个原因
451One is that this is the temperature一,这是温度
452increase that has been agreed upon by members of the United Nations as the temperature that we want* 增加联合国成员商定的温度
453to maintain to limit global warming to.保持将全球变暖限制在。
454And the reason why is that scientists, there's a lot of原因是科学家,有很多
455science that indicates that warming above one and a half degrees C could have really catastrophic科学显示温度上升超过一个半摄氏度
456impacts on human well-being on ecosystems all around the world.对人类福祉的影响。
457Now, if we look at the share现在,如果我们看份额
458of the world's population that account for emissions, it's actually a very small share占世界排放总量的一小部分
459of the world's population that are responsible for the majority of emissions.(a) 占世界排放量大多数的人口。
460So what I'm showing所以,我显示
461here in this graph on the x-axis, this is the share of the world's population.在X轴的图中 这是世界人口的比例
462And on the y-axis,在你的轴上
463this is the share of the carbon footprint.这是碳足迹的一部分。
464You can see that about, oh, let's come here, about 20%你可以看到,哦,让我们来这里,大约20%
465of the population is responsible for about 60% of the carbon footprint.约占碳足迹的60%。
46640% is responsible for40%负责
467about 80% of the carbon footprint.大约80%的碳足迹。
468If we look at cities, the top 100 emitting cities account for如果我们看看城市,最大的100个排放城市
469almost 20% of the carbon footprint.碳足迹的近20%。
470So if these top 100 emitting cities focused on reducing their因此,如果这些排放量最大的100个城市侧重于减少其排放量
471greenhouse gas emissions, this would have a very big impact on reducing emissions.这将会对减少排放量产生重大影响。
472What we see is我们看到的是
473that about two thirds of carbon emissions can be attributed to existing cities and towns.大约三分之二的碳排放可归因于现有城市和城镇。
474So if we所以,如果我们
475look here, this is on the y-axis, this is the urban per capita emissions.你看,这是Y轴, 这是城市人均排放量。
476Developed countries发达国家
477like the US, Canada, the cities there are responsible for about 23% of total urban emissions就像美国,加拿大,那里的城市 占城市总排放量的23%
478and per capita emissions are almost 11 tons of carbon per capita.人均排放量近11吨。
479If we look at Asia in the如果我们看看亚洲
480developing Pacific, the per capita emissions are much lower, but there are a lot more people in Asia.在发展中太平洋,人均排放量要低得多,但亚洲的人口要多得多。
481China and India alone are 2.5 billion, so there are a lot more people.仅中国和印度就有25亿,所以人口就多了。
482The other thing to consider is还有一件事要考虑
483that in the next 20 to 30 years, we're expecting that per capita emissions in Asia and the developing在接下来的20到30年里, 我们期望亚洲和发展中国家的人均排放量
484Pacific to increase and possibly reach those in developed countries.太平洋将增加并可能达到发达国家的水平。
485So this is going to be a所以,这将是一个
486very big challenge going forward.巨大的挑战 前进。
487The good news is that if we look in the future, there's a lot好消息是,如果我们展望未来,就有很多
488we can control in terms of future greenhouse gas emissions that come from cities.我们可以控制未来来自城市的温室气体排放。
489This graph本图
490indicates the emissions that are associated with building future cities.说明与建设未来城市有关的排放。
491So if we look at, let's所以,如果我们看,让我们
492say in this dark blue, if we use state-of-the-art building design and low carbon infrastructure,如果用最先进的建筑设计和低碳基础设施
493this shows how much new carbon emissions will be due to using state-of-the-art building design.这表明使用最先进的建筑设计将产生多少新的碳排放。
494If we were to just build cities as we have been building them in the last 20 and 30 years,如果我们要像过去20年和30年一样建造城市,
495we would envision this total urban greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 emissions, up to about 35.我们设想,城市温室气体排放总量、二氧化碳排放量将达到35个左右。
496But if we actually use very state-of-the-art infrastructure, or even better yet, if we use但是如果我们真的使用非常先进的基础设施, 或者更好,如果我们使用
497low carbon energy systems, we see these different wedges where we can save on future emissions,低碳能源系统,我们看到这些不同的楔形物 我们可以节省未来的排放,
498depending on how we build our future cities.取决于我们如何建设未来城市。
499But the other thing to keep in mind is that但另一个要记住的是
500building cities will affect greenhouse gas emissions.建设城市将影响温室气体排放。
501But the other thing is that但还有一件事
502as cities expand, they will also affect their local climate.随着城市扩张,它们也会影响当地气候.
503So I imagine many people here on所以我想这里有很多人
504the call are familiar with something called the urban heat iron.这个电话是熟悉的 城市热铁。
505Cities are hotter than their城市比他们更热
506surrounding areas.周围区域。
507But urban expansion, the buildup of the vertical space, the buildup但城市扩张 垂直空间的积聚 积聚
508of the outward space, that actually contributes to urban heat.外向空间, 这实际上会增加城市的热量。
509And so this is, again, the work所以这是,再次,工作
510of one of my doctoral students who shows that urban expansion could increase daytime temperatures我的一个博士生 显示城市扩张会增加白天的温度
511up to 5.6 degrees C. This means that urban-driven heat will be even greater than climate change-driven最高为5.6°C. 这意味着城市驱动的热量将甚至大于气候变化驱动的热量。
512heat.热。
513So let me just say that again.所以,让我再说一遍。
514In places where urban expansion will significantly increase在城市扩张将显著增加的地方
515heat, in some places, the urban expansion-driven heat will be greater than the heat, the increase热量,在一些地方,城市扩张驱动的热量 将大于热量,增加
516in temperature due to climate change.由于气候变化,温度上升。
517So I want to wrap this up and bring this all back to the所以,我想结束这个 并把这些都带回
518IPCC report, which we concluded that unless there is immediate, rapid, and large-scale reduction气候小组的报告,我们的结论是,除非立即、迅速和大规模地减少
519in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to one and a half degrees C will be beyond reach.在温室气体排放方面,将升温限制在1.5度C将遥不可及。
520So what do we mean by immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions?那么,立即、迅速和大规模削减意味着什么?
521Well, it means嗯,这意味着
522completely transforming the energy grid in cities.彻底改变城市的能源网
523It means redesigning cities so that we can walk意思是重新设计城市 这样我们才能步行
524and bike and use mass transit and not be reliant so much on cars.和自行车,并使用大众中转, 不依赖这么多的汽车。
525Again, the good news is we actually再说一次,好消息是我们
526have an unprecedented opportunity because more than 60% of the forecasted urban areas in 2050,有了前所未有的机会,因为2050年预测的城市地区有60%以上;
527they haven't been built.他们还没有建成。
528So we have an incredible opportunity to design future cities so that they因此,我们有一个不可思议的机会 设计未来的城市,以便他们
529can be low carbon or even better, net-zero carbon, and we can redesign existing cities我们可以重新设计现有的城市。
530so that they are more walkable and so that they can transition to low carbon.这样它们更容易行走,并可以过渡到低碳.
531So I want to thank所以,我想感谢
532you for everyone's attention, and I'm happy to take questions.请大家注意 我很乐意回答问题
533Great.不错
534Thank you very much,非常感谢
535Professor Sito.西图教授.
536I see that there are already questions being typed.我看到已经有问题被输入。
537I'll start asking我开始问
538Andes, and everyone please feel free to post more questions.安第斯,请大家随意张贴更多的问题。
539I may also draw some from the我也可以从
540pool of questions we've already collected.我们已经收集了很多问题
541So let me try to find you, Andy.让我去找你,安迪
542Oh, thank you, Professor,谢谢你 教授
543and thank you for your speech.并感谢你的发言。
544And my question is that considering the large amount of population我的问题是,考虑到大量人口
545and the vast number of rural areas, some experts in China argue that urbanization in China should中国的一些专家认为,中国的城市化应该
546not develop that fast, and the paradigm of urbanization is maybe distinct from cases in城市化的范式可能不同于
547Western countries, while some others believe that the rate of urbanization in China still has a西方国家,而另一些国家则认为,中国的城市化速度仍然
548What is your opinion to the way that China will choose as for urbanization, and will there be a你对中国选择城市化的方式有什么看法?
549maybe different way for China to develop urbanization?也许中国发展城市化的方法不同?
550And thank you.谢谢
551Yeah, well,对啊
552I mean China already, so I spent the first 15 years of my career studying China's urbanization,我的意思是中国已经, 所以我在职业生涯的前15年 研究中国的城市化,
553and it's very clear that China's path of urbanization is unlike any other country in很明显,中国的城市化道路 不像其他任何国家
554history.历史
555I don't have those slides ready, those statistics, but basically roughly in about 50我没有这些幻灯片,这些统计, 但基本上大约在50个左右。
556years, it took China to achieve in 50 years what it took the United States about 200 years to花了50年时间 美国花了200年
557achieve in terms of urban development, in terms of the resources and infrastructure that is in在城市发展、资源和基础设施方面实现
558And I think a really important point to remember is that urbanization is strongly correlated with我认为一个非常重要的一点是, 城市化与
559increases in income.收入增加。
560And so during this time in China, rapid urbanization has also literally因此,在这个时候,中国的快速城市化 也实际上
561pulled tens of millions of people out of poverty, like extreme poverty, and hundreds of millions of数以千万计的人摆脱了贫困,如极端贫困,还有数亿人
562into a middle-class lifestyle.进入中产阶级的生活方式。
563So, I mean, the achievements of China's urbanization are really所以,我的意思是,中国城市化的成就 确实是
564remarkable, and it's one of these things that we are going to be looking back on history and say,令人瞩目的是,我们回顾历史并说,
565wow, this achievement was remarkable.哇,这一成就是惊人的。
566That said, those achievements are amazing.尽管如此,这些成就是惊人的。
567That said,这么说
568we can always, every country, China included, can always make their cities even better,我们永远可以,每一个国家,包括中国, 永远可以让城市变得更好,
569can even make them more livable, more walkable, less carbon-intensive.甚至可以让它们更可活性,更可步行,更低碳密集.
570So I think that's a really所以我认为这是真的
571important thing to remember is that China has achieved incredible success with their cities.要记住的是,中国在他们的城市中取得了令人难以置信的成功。
572And I mean, just the fact, you know, I used to go to China two to three times a year,我的意思是,事实上,你知道, 我曾经去中国 每年两到三次,
573and this is probably for you or any of you who are born.这可能是为你或你们中任何出生的人。
574So, you know, I was going to China我本来要去中国的
575two to three times a year in the mid-1990s, and places that were agriculture, you know,在1990年代中期,一年两到三次, 和那些地方是农业,你知道,
576three months later, there'd be a factory, and three months later, there'd be another factory,三个月后,会有一个工厂, 三个月后,会有另一个工厂,
577you know.你知道吗?
578And, you know, a lot of my research is using satellite data, and I would have satellite而且,你知道,我的许多研究 是利用卫星数据, 我会有卫星
579images, and the satellite images that I had from two months before field work did not show the new现场工作前两个月的卫星图像没有显示新的
580roads that I was standing on during field work.我在野外工作时站在路上
581It was just amazing.这太神奇了
582But, you know, sometimes when但有时候
583we do things very fast, we may not be able to deliberate what is the best way, and we may not我们做的非常快,我们也许无法考虑什么是最好的方法,我们也许不能
584be able to provide, get input from the people who are living in these cities.能够提供,获得生活在这些城市的人的投入。
585So I think one of the所以我认为其中之一
586big challenges for China cities is to make them more of a human scale.中国城市面临的巨大挑战是使它们更具有人性。
587And what I mean by that还有我的意思
588is that many of China's cities, you know, I lived in Beijing for a while, you know, many of China是中国的许多城市,你知道,我在北京住了一段时间, 你知道,很多中国
589cities like Beijing, the roads are very wide.北京等城市,道路十分宽阔.
590I lived very close to, I lived on the Beidao campus,我住得很近,住在北斗校园
591and I remember there was a couple of boulevards that were like, you know, four lanes wide, and我记得有一对夫妇的大道 喜欢,你知道,四条路宽,
592it took a very long time to cross.花了很长的时间才能穿越
593It's very, you know, that's not really human friendly, right?这是非常,你知道, 这不是真的人友好的,对不对?
594We我们
595like to be, humans like to be actually, you know, this is very related to our time in our mother's喜欢,人类喜欢 实际上,你知道, 这与我们的时间 在我们的母亲
596home.回家去 回家来
597This is really quite interesting.这真的很有趣。
598Humans like to be in cozy places.人类喜欢在舒适的地方。
599We like to be in我们喜欢加入
600streets with like being surrounded by trees, smaller, smaller, smaller, smaller streets.像被树包围的街道, 更小,更小,更小的街道。
601We actually don't feel so good psychologically if we're on very wide streets.如果我们在很宽的街道上 心理上我们感觉不太好
602And part of this is这其中一部分是
603related back to us simply as humans.和我们人类的关系
604If we're in wide places, we're more likely to be at risk如果我们在广阔的地方, 我们更可能面临危险
605to be eaten by a predator, right?被掠食者吃掉 对吧?
606Of course, we don't have those same kind of risks in a city,当然,我们没有同样的风险 在城市,
607but I'm trying to just illustrate that it is in our DNA to be in smaller, cozier places.但我只是想说明 在我们的DNA中 是在较小的,舒适的地方。
608It is in our DNA as evolutionary mammals to evolve as mammals to like certain types of在我们的DNA中 进化的哺乳动物 进化的哺乳动物 喜欢某些类型的
609environments.环境。
610And so a lot of cities that have been designed that are very big scale, that are因此,许多城市 设计 非常大的规模,即
611not at the human scale, we could redesign them.不是在人类规模, 我们可以重新设计它们。
612And so, and this is a long answer to your question,所以,这是一个很长的答案 你的问题,
613Andy, you know, I think that there are many opportunities for Chinese cities to be redesigned.安迪,你知道,我认为有很多机会 中国的城市被重新设计。
614And I want to highlight here that it's not just Chinese cities.我想在这里强调,这不仅仅是中国的城市。
615A lot of American cities have been许多美国城市已经
616redesigned.重新设计。
617I did my PhD in Boston, and Boston had a very large, a very large highway that cut我在波士顿做了博士,波士顿有条大,非常大的公路 切开
618through the entire city.穿过整个城市
619There was a tenure effort to take that big highway and put it underground,曾有终身制努力 夺取那条大公路 并把它放在地下,
620completely redesigned the city.完全重新设计了城市。
621San Francisco is another city that had a very big highway cutting旧金山是另一座 公路大割断的城市
622across the city.穿过城市
623They redesigned it after the 1989 earthquake.他们在1989年地震后重新设计了它.
624So it is a natural process for所以这是一个自然的过程
625cities to get redeveloped.城市被重新开发。
626Cities are always undergoing change.城市总是在变化。
627We don't design cities,我们不设计城市,
628build them, and then, you know, it's not a museum.然后,你知道,这不是博物馆。
629And so I think that in this next 10 years,所以我认为在这接下来的十年里
630this is an incredible opportunity for Chinese cities to become even better and to become这是中国城市变得更美好和
631more human-centric and more sustainable.更以人为本,更可持续。
632Thank you, Professor Sito.谢谢你,西多教授
633I'm going to ask a question我要问一个问题
634that we collected, and it's kind of, it's a composite question from a number of people,我们收集, 有点, 这是一个综合问题 从一些人,
635actually in academia.实际上在学术界。
636And it's about whether you have seen examples, whether in developing是关于你是否看到过实例 是否在发展
637or developed countries where countries or policymakers have done a good job in protecting国家或决策者在保护
638food systems and biodiversity, for example.例如,食物系统和生物多样性。
639For example, one professor from, I believe,例如,一名教授,我相信,
640the Beijing Language and Culture University cited Britain's so-called anti-urbanization movement北京语言文化大学引用了英国所谓的反城市化运动
641and efforts at rural protection.以及保护农村的努力。
642What are your thoughts on some of the interesting examples that你对一些有趣的例子有什么想法?
643cities or about-to-be urbanized places can draw on?城市或即将城市化的地方可以借鉴?
644Thanks.谢谢
645Yeah.
646So there are many examples所以有很多例子
647around the world of places that have protected biodiversity, and I think really important is在保护生物多样性的地方,我认为真正重要的是
648protecting agricultural land.保护农田。
649And one of the things that we've learned from this work and我们从这部作品中学到的一件事
650from research is that it's more effective to save agricultural land if multiple cities and regions从研究是,如果多个城市和地区,拯救农业用地更加有效
651work together.一起行动
652It's not so effective if one city says, you know, so if this is a city,如果一个城市说,它不是那么有效 所以如果这是一个城市,
653so you can see my little, you know, this is a city and a city says, okay, we're not going to build这样你就能看见我的小,你知道, 这是一个城市和一个城市说,好吧,我们不会建造
654outside of the city and save all this land.城外救护一切国土.
655That actually is not very effective because what这实际上不是很有效 因为什么
656happens is if there's another city here, people will just move to this city and this city will grow如果这里有另一个城市, 人们会搬到这个城市,这个城市会成长
657and then take up the agricultural land and this city that has its rules about not growing will然后占领农地 和这个城市 它的规则是不种植意志
658be impacted by the city and all this new development.受到城市和所有这些新发展的影响。
659So cities have to work together as regions,因此,城市必须合作 作为地区,
660as mega regions to protect their agricultural land.保护他们的农业用地。
661That's number one.即第一义.
662The second thing is that第二点是
663cities and regional and national governments must work together.城市与区域和国家政府必须共同努力。
664Cities can only do so much.城市只能做这么多。
665National governments are in charge of things like railways.国家政府负责铁路等事务.
666National governments, like in the US,国家政府,像美国,
667like in China, they're the ones that provide funding for high-speed rail, for transportation像中国一样,它们为高速铁路,运输提供资金
668corridors.走廊。 走廊。
669They also are the national governments are the ones that direct investments,他们也是那些直接投资的国家政府,
670direct foreign investments.外国直接投资。
671So for example, in China in 1973, with the opening up of China,例如1973年随着中国的开放,
672the national government directed foreign investments to Shenzhen, right?国民政府将外资投向深圳,对吗?
673And after之后
674Shenzhen, it was to the Pearl River Delta and then to other regions in China.深圳,原为珠江三角洲,后又进入中国其他地区.
675Same thing in the US,同样的事情在美国,
676same thing in many other countries.在很多其他国家也是这样
677National governments can focus national investments and各国政府可集中国家投资,
678international investments in a few places.在一些地方进行国际投资。
679And if national governments value biodiversity,如果各国政府重视生物多样性,
680if they value agricultural land, they must work together with regional and local governments to如果它们重视农业用地,就必须与区域和地方政府合作,
681protect agricultural land.保护农田。
682So this must be a multi-tier approach.因此,这必须是一个多层次的方法。
683And I think in the countries that我想在这些国家
684have done so, and not just countries, I would say cities and regions that have done so end up我要说,已经这样做的城市和地区最终会这样做,而不仅仅是国家。
685being the most successful.成为最成功的。
686The other thing that's really important to keep in mind is that另一件很重要的事是 记住
687many cities have a lot of biodiversity within the city.许多城市在城市内部拥有大量的生物多样性.
688And so there's an opportunity to actually因此,有一个机会 实际上
689preserve biodiversity and inside cities and towns as they are expanding.保护生物多样性,以及城市和城镇内部不断扩大的生物多样性。
690So there's just a所以,只有一个
691huge amount of opportunity here to design cities as they develop, to maintain the green spaces,这里有大量的机会 设计城市 随着它们的发展, 维护绿色空间,
692to maintain impervious surfaces.保持无孔的表面。
693There are a lot of ways that we can build cities so that they can有很多方法,我们可以建造城市 这样他们就可以
694be biologically diverse.生物多样性。
695Thank you, Professor Sito.谢谢你,西多教授
696For the next question, I'd like to ask关于下一个问题,我想问
697Wilbur Zhang, whom I believe is a lawyer from King and Wood Malisons.张威尔伯 我相信他是来自国王和伍德马里森斯的律师
698I don't know if you'd我不知道你会不会
699like to unmute and ask your question.喜欢解密并问你的问题。
700Oh, great.哦,伟大的。
701Thanks.谢谢
702Oh, thank you.谢谢
703Thank you for your谢谢你
704presentation.介绍。
705So my question is, if I may, I want to know your opinion about the low carbon所以我的问题是,如果可以的话, 我想知道你对低碳的看法
706regulations and the low carbon standards in China, because I'm not a professional in environmental中国的法规和低碳标准,因为我不是环境专业
707science.科学。
708So generally, when I'm practicing in the field of environmental protection and一般来说,当我在环保领域练习时
709infrastructure development, I may be responsible for drafting some documents or do something like我可能负责起草一些文件 或者做一些类似
710that.那个
711But I don't know much about the standards and the logics of the environmental protection但我对环境保护的标准和逻辑了解不多
712behind the work.在工作后面,我们是...
713So I would like to know, do you think China now is making enough progress or所以,我想知道,你认为中国现在 已经取得了足够的进步,或者
714is still trying hard to make more low carbon standards and regulations to guide the market?仍在努力制定更多的低碳标准和法规来引导市场?
715Because from my point of view, it seems we have a lot of因为在我看来,我们有很多
716ambiguous roles that generally we heavily depend on some policies instead of mandatory通常我们严重依赖某些政策而不是强制性的模糊作用。
717regulations.条例。
718And sometimes I think that may not be helpful when we are really trying to有时候我觉得这也许没有帮助 当我们真的试图
719make a low carbon society.创造一个低碳社会。
720And I just want to know your opinion about that.我只想知道你对此的看法。
721Yeah, thank you.谢谢
722Yeah, that's a really important question.是啊,这是一个非常重要的问题。
723So if I could just break your question down into two如果我能把你的问题分成两个
724parts.组件。
725So one part is what is China doing in terms of setting policies for low carbon?所以有一部分是中国在制定低碳政策方面在做什么?
726And then the second part of that is really about implementation.然后,第二部分真正涉及执行。
727So here's a good example that I'm因此,这里有一个很好的例子,我
728going to give for a moment.将给予一分钟。
729So I'm wondering for all of you on the call, how many times your parents所以我在想你们所有的人 有多少次你的父母
730set rules for you, any kind of rule.为你制定规则 任何规则
731Maybe it's like how much time you can be on the internet or也许这就像你有多少时间 可以上网或
732how much exercise or how much sleep you should get.多少锻炼或多少睡眠你应该得到。
733That's a good rule.这规则不错
734Maybe your parents say,也许你的父母说,
735this is how much sleep you should get.这是你该睡多少觉。
736But it's one thing to say, this is a rule or this is a但是,这是一件事,这是规则或这是
737policy.政策。
738Maybe the parents don't say it's a policy, but it's another thing to say, I'm now going to也许父母不说这是政策, 但这是另一个事情说,我现在要去
739enforce it.执行它。
740OK, now it's time to go to bed.好了 现在该睡觉了
741OK, now you have to get off your internet.好吧,现在你必须离开你的互联网。
742Right.
743So China has done a great job in setting a lot of standards.因此,中国在制定许多标准方面成绩斐然.
744They have a lot of rules.他们有很多规则。
745China's中国
746excellent at setting a lot of low carbon standards.在设定许多低碳标准方面非常出色.
747The implementation is much, much harder.执行工作要困难得多。
748And I would say setting the rules is maybe half right.我想说,制定规则 也许是一半正确。
749It's very aspirational.甚有抱负.
750I want to go to sleep and get enough sleep.我想去睡觉 得到足够的睡眠。
751I want to be low carbon city.我想成为低碳城市。
752I want to be a good我想成为一个好人
753student.学生。
754But then implementation means I need to get enough sleep.但执行意味着我需要 得到足够的睡眠。
755I need to enforce the rules with我需要执行规则与
756companies, with agencies, with the people.公司,机构,人民。
757And the implementation is very, very difficult.执行非常非常困难。
758I want to share a picture with you.我想跟你分享一张照片
759I want to share.我想分享。
760Let me see.让我看看。
761Let me just让我来
762see.看到没?
763Let me want to share something else with you just so you can get an idea让我跟你们分享点别的 这样你们就可以有个主意了
764of the different strategies that are available, because it's a quite complicated thing if we're不同的策略, 因为它是一个相当复杂的事情 如果我们是
765going to talk about getting to low carbon or net zero carbon.说到低碳或净零碳。
766So I'm just sharing you another所以,我只是分享你另一个
767just another diagram from a paper that I've written.我写的报纸上的另一张图
768So we think about what所以我们想
769cities.城市。
770This is specifically for cities.这是专门针对城市的。
771What can cities do if we think about城市能做什么 如果我们想到
772decarbonizing, getting to net zero, getting to low carbon and net zero?去碳化,得到净零, 得到低碳和净零?
773There are really three big strategies.有三个大战略。
774The first strategy is cities need to reduce the demand for第一个战略是城市需要减少对
775energy.能源。
776And really, there are three I call these things pathways.事实上,有三种我称之为路径。
777So strategy is like a big umbrella所以,策略就像一个大伞
778and then a pathway is specific.然后一个路径是明确的。
779So we can do spatial planning.所以我们可以进行空间规划。
780And if we did spatial planning如果我们做了空间规划
781where people could walk to work, that would reduce the demand for cars, reduce the demand for energy.人们可以步行去工作, 这将减少对汽车的需求, 减少对能源的需求。
782If if our buildings were more efficient, if we had appliances that were more efficient,如果我们的建筑更有效率, 如果我们有更有效率的电器,
783if we conserve energy, like turn down the thermostat, that would reduce demand.如果我们节约能源,比如把自动调温器关掉, 就可以减少需求。
784But不过
785the other thing that we need to do is the cities need to switch supply of energy.城市需要调换能源供应。
786They need to他们需要
787switch supply of energy from coal fired electricity to green electricity.将燃煤电力的能源供应改为绿色电力。
788So this is what that means所以这就是意思
789by decarbonization of electricity.通过电的去碳化。
790So we need to switch our electricity supply from coal to所以我们需要把我们的电力供应从煤炭转为
791green energy.绿色能源。
792But there are a lot of things that are not using electricity, like a lot of heating但有很多东西不使用电, 像很多暖气
793is not using heat electricity.不使用热电。
794A lot of our mobility like cars and buses are not using我们有很多的机动性 像汽车和公交车没有使用
795electricity.电力。
796And the reason why we focus on using electricity or electrifying heating mobility and以及为什么我们注重使用电力 或电气化的供暖流动性和
797cooking is we can easily decarbonize electricity.烹饪是我们可以轻松去碳化的电力。
798We can use windmills or solar power to generate我们可以用风车或太阳能发电
799electricity.电力。
800So we use buses running on electricity.所以我们使用公共汽车运行在电力上。
801We can then have a decarbonized然后我们就可以去碳化
802transport system.交通运输系统。
803You can I put the scrap up here because you can see that it would be a我可以把废料放在这里,因为你可以看到,这将是一个
804lot easier to set up a lot of rules on decarbonizing all of these things by right.建立很多规则 正确去碳化 所有这些东西。
805But it's a lot harder但是这很难
806to actually implement them.实际执行。
807But one thing and one thing that is relatively easy that is part of the但有一件事和一件事 是相对容易的,是其中的一部分
808decarbonization strategy is to enhance carbon uptake.非碳化战略是加强碳吸收。
809And so this is related to the earlier所以这和以前有关
810question about biodiversity.生物多样性问题。
811If cities actually planted trees and had more vegetation, it could如果城市真的种树 并拥有更多的植被,它可能
812cities to actually help to sequester carbon.城市可以帮助固碳
813And that would have also a positive impact on这也会对
814on reducing or actually sequestering CO2.减少或实际封存二氧化碳。
815So long answer to your question.这么长的时间回答你的问题。
816It's a lot harder to难得多
817implement, but China's done quite a good job with putting a lot of things in the books.执行,但中国已经做了一个相当好的工作 将很多事情放在书中。
818I put that我写了
819graph up there, that figure up there, because I also wanted to illustrate that a lot of the上面的图,上面的图, 因为我也想说明很多
820climate change also will require behavior changes for each of us.气候变化还需要我们每个人改变行为。
821So it means that if we can,所以,这意味着如果我们可以,
822we should adopt a more low carbon lifestyle.我们应该采取更低碳的生活方式。
823And it will be not only up to不仅如此
824governments to implement these changes, but also up to us as individuals.政府执行这些改革,但也取决于我们个人。
825Thanks, Professor Tito.谢谢,铁托教授
826In the interest of time, I'm going to kind of quickly为了时间的考虑,我要快点
827slot in.插槽 。
828There's a short question about whether you thought COVID-19 accelerated or impeded关于你是否认为COVID-19加速或阻碍
829urbanization in developing countries.发展中国家的城市化。
830我要揭开Christine Ma问你的问题
831about green cities.关于绿色城市。
832And that would be the last question.这是最后一个问题。
833Thanks.谢谢
834Hi, Professor.嗨,教授,你好吗?
835Can you hear me?你能听到我吗?
836Yeah, I hear you fine.是啊,我听到你没事。
837Yeah, thank you for a very informative lecture on urbanization and是的,谢谢你的演讲 关于城市化和
838its challenges.挑战。
839So obviously, I take geography at school.很明显,我在学校学习地理。
840And then in our school discussions,然后在学校的讨论中,
841I heard a lot of some people brought up that, for example, Saudi Arabia has designed a new我听到很多人提起过 比如沙特阿拉伯设计了一个新的
842kind of linear city that's supposed to have a green space and a very sustainable net zero那种线性城市 应该有一个绿色的空间 一个非常可持续的净零
843kind of city model.一种城市模式。
844And then also Malaysia has proposed one that has no cars on the island.之后马来西亚也提出在岛上没有汽车的车型.
845So obviously, some countries are kind of proposing this kind of environmental-friendly很明显,一些国家在提议这种环境友好
846cities that are new, like the newest probably renewable energies that they integrate into their城市是新的, 像最新的 可能是可再生能源 他们融入到自己的
847city systems so that they can better achieve the net zero carbon goals or integrate the environment,城市系统,以便能更好地实现净零碳目标或整合环境,
848for example, having plans on the buildings and everything.例如,在建筑物和所有东西上都有计划。
849So obviously, that design is great,很明显,这个设计很棒
850but the challenges we're debating all over about it is like, obviously, people wouldn't move to但是我们一直在争论的难题是, 很明显,人们不会移动到
851these new cities because they've been living in the old city for years.这些新城市 因为他们在老城生活了多年
852And why would they move?他们为什么要动?
853And then also, it's like how building that city also costs a lot of raw materials.还有,这就像建造这座城市 也花费了很多原材料。
854But on the不过在
855other hand, improving upon the existing cities is also a challenge because you said it's easy另一方面,改善现有城市也是一个挑战,因为你说很简单
856to set the rules and set the goals, but it's hard to implement all the changes.来设定规则和设定目标,但很难实施所有的改变.
857So for example,比如说,
858you can change the ways of generating energy, but you have to rebuild all the pipelines and你可以改变能源生成方式 但你必须重建所有管道
859all the lines and everything.所有线条和一切。
860And then also, I heard, for example, Yale had this system where还有,我听说,例如,耶鲁有这个系统
861they can store heat and then use a kind of recycling system where they can use the heat他们可以储存热量 然后使用一种循环系统 他们可以使用热量
862to heat up the building in winter.冬天给大楼加热
863But then obviously, you can't pluck out a building and但很明显,你不能拔出一个建筑
864build an underground vent and then put the building back down.建造地下通风口,然后把大楼倒下.
865So obviously, building up很明显,正在建立
866on the existing city also requires a lot of challenges because it's been there for ages,在现有的城市也需要很多挑战 因为它已经存在了很多年了
867and redeveloping it also has challenges.并且重新发展它也面临挑战。
868So I was asking you whether having a new city is a所以我问你 新城市是不是
869feasible solution to climate change or which kind of side do you take, whether it's building a new解决气候变化的可行办法 或者你选择哪一边 不论它正在建立一个新的
870city or improving upon existing ones?城市还是现有城市的改善?
871Well, Christina, your class is definitely克里斯蒂娜 你的课绝对是
872addressing some of the most pressing issues and clearly you have a good handle on them.解决一些最紧迫的问题,你显然能很好地处理这些问题。
873There are dozens and dozens of examples in history where governments have tried to build,历史上有几十个例子 政府试图建立,
874they have tried and they have built new cities as an attempt to be more sustainable and pull people他们尝试了,他们建造了新的城市 以试图更可持续和吸引人们
875there.这里
876There is not a single example of them being successful because exactly like you just said,没有一个例子能证明他们成功,因为正如你刚才所说,
877why are people going to move to a city that they have no roots in, for one, but also,为什么人们要搬到一个 他们没有根基的城市, 一个人,但是,
878there's a real challenge if we think that we know how to design a city, the best city for people to如果我们认为我们知道如何设计一个城市, 一个人们最好的城市,
879basically know how to do it less wrong than right, but we don't know 100% what the right,基本上知道如何做错 而不是正确, 但我们不知道100% 什么是正确,
880what all the solutions are.所有的解决办法是什么。
881And so I would say the better solution is to actually redesign the所以我想说,更好的解决办法是 真正重新设计
882existing cities because also, as you said, Christina, it takes a lot of resources to build因为,正如你所说,克里斯蒂娜 建造城市需要大量资源
883these new cities. We basically know how to do it less wrong than right, but we don't know 100%这些新城市。 我们基本上知道如何做错小于正确, 但我们不知道100%
884And and we're better off taking the land我们最好把土地拿走
885that is already a city and redesigning it.这已经是一个城市 并重新设计它。
886That takes a lot longer.这需要更长的时间。
887But ultimately, it creates much more durable solutions.但归根结底,它创造了更持久的解决办法。
888I have a lot of other thoughts on this, but given the time,我对此有很多其他想法,但考虑到时间,
889I'll just end it there.我会在那里结束它。
890But but I think it is important to know that there are so many examples但我认为重要的是 要知道 有很多例子
891in history also where cities have been redesigned to be much more sustainable.历史上也曾对城市进行重新设计,使其更具可持续性。
892I'll just give one example very quickly, which is in Seville, Spain.我很快举一个例子, 在西班牙塞维利亚。
893In two years, the city built over 80 kilometers of bike lanes,在两年内,城市建造了80多公里的自行车道,
894and they took the bike lanes that were they built them in streets他们走的自行车道 他们建在街道上
895that had cars.有车。
896Nobody want none of the business owners wanted to get rid of,没有人希望任何 企业老板想要摆脱,
897you know, space for cars你知道,车的空间
898because they thought that was important for their business.因为他们认为这对他们的生意很重要
899But ultimately, they were able to do it.但最终,他们做到了。
900And it has completely I was in Seville this past summer looking at this去年夏天我在塞维利亚 看这个
901completely redesigned the space and changed the city.完全重新设计了空间,并改变了城市。
902So, you know, every city can redesign themselves.所以,你知道,每个城市都可以重新设计自己。
903It's pretty remarkable.这是相当显著的。
904Thank you so much.非常感谢
905Well, first of all, thank you very much to Professor首先,非常感谢教授
906Karen Cito for making time for this very informative,凯伦·西托为这个信息丰富的事准备了时间
907inspiring and engaging talk.鼓舞人心的演讲
908I've learned a great deal and I'm sure everybody has as well.我学到了很多,我相信每个人都有。
909I really hope that with我真的希望这样
910the policy changes with政策变化
911in China, that we'll all be able to meet at the Yale Center Beijing soon,在中国,我们很快就会在北京耶鲁中心见面
912including Professor Karen Cito, as well as our audiences.包括凯伦·西托教授 还有我们的观众
913As a tradition for for our online events, what we do at the end is we作为我们网上活动的传统,我们最终要做的就是我们
914try to ask people if you're able to turn on your cameras to turn them on试着问人们,如果你能打开你的摄像机 打开它们
915so that we can take a really quick group photo.这样我们就可以拍张非常快的团体照片。
916And also, we will unmute you in case you want to say而且,我们会解除你 以防你想说
917thank you to Professor Karen Cito.感谢凯伦·西托教授
918So I'm going to count down from five.故从五下数.
919So five or three, three,所以五三个,三,
920two, one.二,一个。
921Say, yeah, yeah, yeah.说曰.
922And please feel free to unmute yourself and say thank you and请放松一下 说声谢谢
923wish everyone a fantastic year of the rabbit.祝大家过上完美的一年
924Yes.
925Happy New Year.新年快乐
926Yes.
927Happy New Year.新年快乐
928This is our last talk这是我们最后一次谈话
929before the Chinese New Year.在中国新年之前
930So thank you, everyone, for joining and to Professor Cito for the talk.感谢大家的加入 感谢西托教授的演讲
931Thanks, Carol.谢谢 卡罗尔
932Thank you.谢谢
933Thank you, everyone.谢谢大家
934Have a good night.边
935Bye.再见。
936Happy New Year.新年快乐
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