耶鲁教授Frank Snowden讲述亲历的新冠肺炎疫情之重

发布于 2021-01-10 · 时长 1:28:31

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:04	Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening, everyone.	早上好,下午好,或者晚上好,大家好。
0:07	Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event	欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京活动
0:11	with Yale Professor Frank Snowden.	与耶鲁大学教授弗兰克·斯诺登.
0:15	My name is Carol Lee Rafferty.	我叫卡罗尔·李·拉费蒂
0:17	I'm Yale College Class of 2000	我是耶鲁大学2000级
0:19	and also the Managing Director of Yale Center Beijing.	以及耶鲁中心北京总经理.
0:24	Tonight, I'm joined by, of course, Professor Frank Snowden,	今晚,我加入,当然,弗兰克·斯诺登教授
0:29	as well as our moderators, Devon Lau,	还有主持人刘德文
0:33	and also Helen Wu, who will start our Q&A session.	还有吴海伦,她将开始我们的"A"课
0:37	Just a quick word,	简言之,

展开字幕全文（1216 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening, everyone.	早上好,下午好,或者晚上好,大家好。
2	Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event	欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京活动
3	with Yale Professor Frank Snowden.	与耶鲁大学教授弗兰克·斯诺登.
4	My name is Carol Lee Rafferty.	我叫卡罗尔·李·拉费蒂
5	I'm Yale College Class of 2000	我是耶鲁大学2000级
6	and also the Managing Director of Yale Center Beijing.	以及耶鲁中心北京总经理.
7	Tonight, I'm joined by, of course, Professor Frank Snowden,	今晚,我加入,当然,弗兰克·斯诺登教授
8	as well as our moderators, Devon Lau,	还有主持人刘德文
9	and also Helen Wu, who will start our Q&A session.	还有吴海伦,她将开始我们的"A"课
10	Just a quick word,	简言之,
11	because this is a very intimate discussion,	因为这是非常亲密的讨论,
12	we would encourage all of you to turn on your cameras	我们鼓励你们所有人打开摄像头
13	to the extent your conditions allow.	在你的条件允许的范围内
14	We've had almost 100 of these online events	这些网上活动我们差不多有100个
15	and we're very delighted to be collaborating	我们很高兴合作
16	with alumni clubs around the region,	与校友俱乐部各地,
17	such as those in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, India,	例如上海、香港、新加坡、印度,
18	to run these lovely, wonderful events	来主持这些可爱,美妙的活动
19	for us to be able to feel a sense of community	以便我们能感觉到一种社区感
20	as part of Yale,	作为耶鲁的一部分,
21	and to be able to have intellectual discussions	和能够进行知识讨论
22	during these unusual times.	在这个不寻常的时期
23	I know Devon will give a more comprehensive introduction	我知道德文会更全面地介绍
24	about Professor Snowden's very important work.	关于斯诺登教授非常重要的工作
25	I am especially delighted to have Devon	我特别高兴有德文
26	as a lead moderator today	今天作为主持人
27	because he is a history major at Yale College Class of 2009,	因为他是耶鲁大学2009级历史专业
28	Timothy Dwight College.	蒂莫西·德怀特学院.
29	And I'm also very delighted to have Helen Wu	我也很高兴有吴海伦
30	as a co-moderator.	作同调者.
31	She was an intern at Yale Center Beijing	她是北京耶鲁中心的实习生
32	and a high school student,	和一个高中生,
33	an 11th grader	11年级学生
34	at the Shanghai High School International Division.	就读于上海中学国际分部.
35	She did a fantastic job	她做得很好,她做得不错
36	watching Professor Snowden's entire Open Yale course	看着斯诺登教授的整个耶鲁大学课程
37	and did a fantastic summary and review of the course,	并且对课程做了精彩的总结和回顾,
38	which had a lot of readership on our social media accounts.	我们的社交媒体账号上有很多读者
39	So without further ado,	所以不用再多说了
40	I'm gonna turn the podium to Devon,	我要把讲台转向德文
41	Professor Snowden, and Helen later.	斯诺登教授, 和海伦以后。
42	Thank you.	谢谢
43	All right.	好吧,我们走。
44	Thank you so much, Carol.	谢谢你,卡罗尔。
45	Hello, my name is Devon Lau, as Carol mentioned.	你好,我的名字是德文刘,正如卡罗尔提到的。
46	I am class of 2009,	我是2009级的
47	and I'm the assistant director for Yale Center Beijing.	我是耶鲁中心北京的助理主任
48	And as Carol mentioned,	正如卡罗尔所说,
49	we've been hosting a series of talks	我们一直在主持一系列会谈
50	really since basically the pandemic started,	基本上从大流行开始
51	and we've covered a lot of ground,	我们已经覆盖了很多地面,
52	everything from sleep habits during quarantine	隔离期间从睡眠习惯得到的一切
53	to the racial tensions in the US, to music.	美国的种族紧张关系,音乐。
54	So we've really covered the whole gamut.	所以,我们真的覆盖了整个游戏。
55	And it's hard to imagine,	很难想象
56	we're almost coming up on a year	我们快一年了
57	since COVID first started in China.	自COVID首次在中国开始.
58	And so we thought it would be a good time	所以我们觉得这是一个好时机
59	to look back on the year,	回头回顾一年,
60	as well as just to put this pandemic	以及把这种流行病
61	in the context of the history of different epidemics.	不同流行病的历史背景。
62	And so today we're particularly delighted	今天我们特别高兴
63	to have Professor Frank Snowden join us.	让弗兰克·斯诺登教授加入我们
64	Professor Frank Snowden is the Andrew Downey	弗兰克·斯诺登教授是安德鲁·唐尼
65	Oreck Professor Emeritus of History	历史荣誉教授
66	and History of Medicine at Yale.	以及耶鲁的医学史
67	He's a graduate of Harvard and Oxford,	他是哈佛大学和牛津大学的毕业生
68	and he's of course the author of Epidemics and Society,	他当然是《流行病和社会》的作者,
69	From the Black Death to the Present,	从黑死病到现在
70	which was the number one recommended book	这是第一个推荐书
71	by the World Economic Forum to read	由世界经济论坛改为:
72	for context on the coronavirus outbreak.	有关冕病毒爆发的背景
73	That book of course was based on his very popular	那本书当然是基于他很受欢迎的
74	open Yale course, Epidemics in Western Society since 1600.	开设耶鲁课程,1600年起在西方社会流行.
75	And so we're going to be going through a lot of that content	所以我们要经历很多内容
76	in a moderated discussion format.	讨论方式。
77	And what I'll do is I'll start off with some questions	我会先问几个问题
78	for Professor Snowden,	斯诺登教授
79	and then at about the 45 minute mark or so,	大约45分钟左右
80	I'll be opening it up to questions.	我会打开它的问题。
81	So if you do have questions, keep them ready,	所以,如果你真的有问题, 让他们准备好,
82	and then we'll get into a more free flowing discussion then.	然后我们再进行更自由的讨论
83	So just by way of starting,	所以从一开始
84	I wanted to say that Professor Snowden was actually in Italy	我想说斯诺登教授其实在意大利
85	doing research, as I understand, on epidemics	据我所知,正在研究流行病
86	when the coronavirus outbreak really hit Italy.	当日冕病毒疫情真的袭击意大利时.
87	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}那么一团乱
88	on doing research on epidemics	研究流行病
89	and then being in the middle of one in Italy himself.	然后在意大利一个人中间
90	And so we'll definitely be able to ask him	所以我们肯定可以问他
91	about that experience as well.	也有那种经历
92	So welcome Professor Snowden.	欢迎斯诺登教授
93	Oh, thank you very much.	哦,非常感谢。
94	I'm delighted to be here with you.	我很高兴能在这里和你在一起。
95	All right, so let's get started.	好吧,让我们开始吧。
96	I think for most people before this year,	我想今年之前对大多数人来说
97	no one was really thinking about epidemics.	没有人真的想到流行病。
98	We were all just sort of living our normal lives	我们都只是过着正常的生活
99	and nobody really paid attention to public health.	没有人真正关注公共卫生。
100	But of course, that's not the case for you.	当然,你不是这样的
101	You've been studying epidemics for a long time,	你研究流行病已经很久了
102	years, decades even, thinking about epidemics	数年,甚至几十年, 思考流行病
103	and the impact that they have	及其影响
104	on people and society and history.	关于人民、社会和历史。
105	So I guess as a way of introducing yourself,	我想作为自我介绍的方式
106	the first question is how exactly did you become interested	第一个问题是你究竟对什么感兴趣
107	in this topic of the history of epidemics	流行病历史专题
108	and how did you get started studying this?	你怎么开始研究这个的?
109	I guess I would say in answer to that,	我想我会回答这个
110	probably two different things led me in this direction.	可能有两个不同的东西引导我朝着这个方向。
111	One was a personal experience	一个是个人经历
112	because that always counts	因为那总是重要的
113	and the other is a more an intellectual one.	而另一个则是一个更知识分子。
114	The personal one was that in 1973, distant time now,	私事是1973年的远期
115	I was a PhD student working in Rome, Italy.	我是在意大利罗马工作的博士生
116	And at that time there was an outbreak in Asiatic cholera	当时亚洲霍乱爆发
117	that struck Naples and Rome in particular.	特别是那不勒斯和罗马
118	And I remember the fact that there was a lot of	我记得事实上有很多
119	tension in the city of Rome.	罗马城的紧张局势
120	And I saw cars with Naples license plates	我看见那不勒斯的车牌
121	being pelted with stones.	被用石头砸碎。
122	And I remember going to the marketplace	我记得去市场
123	and people who were selling goods	和那些卖商品的人
124	were being attacked by crowds in the city.	被城里的人群袭击
125	And then Italy at this time	然后意大利此时
126	was the world's seventh industrial power.	曾是世界第七工业强国.
127	And it was very striking that the prime minister	首相非常引人注目
128	and the minister of health came onto the television	卫生部长上电视
129	and reassured the population of Italy	并安抚意大利人民
130	that actually they had nothing to worry about	其实他们没什么好担心的
131	because the Vibrio that causes Asiatic cholera	因为引起亚洲霍乱的维布里奥
132	is exquisitely sensitive to acid.	对酸很敏感
133	So all you need to do is go out and buy a couple of lemons	所以你只需要出去买几块柠檬
134	and squeeze the juice on your raw muscles	将果汁挤在生肌肉上
135	and you're good to go.	你该走了
136	Now, if you believe that, you'll believe anything.	现在,如果你相信,你会相信任何事情。
137	And I think this was followed up by the same two figures	我认为这是之后同样的两个数字
138	went to the infectious disease hospital in Naples	去那不勒斯的传染病医院
139	and visited the cholera patients.	并拜访了霍乱病人。
140	Incidentally, not too many years later,	顺便说一句不久之后
141	I went to the same hospital and went through their records	我去了同一家医院查看了他们的病历
142	for this particular outbreak.	对于这个特定的爆发。
143	But in any case, the point was that there they were	但无论如何,重点是他们在那里
144	in the ward and a local newspaper	在病房和一家当地报纸上
145	caught a magnificent little video clip of them	拍到一幅精彩的视频片段
146	sort of trotting down the aisle between the beds	沿着床之间的过道走
147	because they were rather frightened to be there.	因为他们害怕到那里去
148	And both of them had their fingers clasped like this	两人的手指都像这样
149	behind their backs because that in Italian popular culture	在他们背后因为意大利的流行文化
150	is the way to ward off the evil eye.	是阻止邪恶之眼的方法
151	So I was thinking, what does this show?	所以我在想这个节目是什么?
152	This really shows a lot about a society,	这真的显示了很多关于一个社会,
153	its beliefs, its priorities, all sorts of things like that.	它的信仰,它的优先事项, 各种类似的东西。
154	And it's really very interesting.	这真的很有趣。
155	I'd love the opportunity to understand that more deeply.	我希望有机会更深入地理解这一点。
156	And then I came instead down the path	然后,我来到了道路
157	of doing social and political history.	做社会和政治历史。
158	And at that point, I began to read though	那时,我开始阅读
159	in part of the research about medical events	医学事件研究的一部分
160	in times of epidemics past.	在流行病过去的时候。
161	And I began to be distracted enormously	我开始分心了
162	because they seem to show really a great deal	因为他们似乎显示了很多
163	about the society in which they occurred.	关于他们发生的社会。
164	And I came to hold the belief that this was an ideal lens	我坚信这是理想的镜头
165	and really to examine what people's living conditions are,	并真正地检查人民的生活条件是什么,
166	what their social, political and economic relationships are.	他们的社会、政治和经济关系是什么。
167	And this led me to in fact, plunge headfirst	这导致我事实上,先跌头
168	into the history of epidemics and their effects.	进入流行病历史及其影响。
169	And I've come to believe what I just said to you	我开始相信我刚才说的话
170	much more even than I did then.	甚至比我当时还多得多
171	I think in fact that if you look at a pandemic	我认为,事实上,如果你看一个流行病
172	like the one we're living through,	就像我们所经历的那个
173	it really is like watching a moral drama	这真的就像看道德剧
174	with the bright and the dark sides of human nature	与人类的光明和黑暗面
175	being exposed there in front of us.	被暴露在我们面前
176	Or to change the metaphor, we could say,	或者改变比喻我们可以说
177	it's rather like having a mirror	就像有镜子一样
178	in which we see ourselves reflected.	我们看到自己在其中被反映。
179	That is to say that these events are not random.	这就是说,这些事件并不是偶然的。
180	There is of course contingency.	当然有意外事件。
181	Anyone can be at the wrong place at the wrong time.	任何人都可能在错误的时间出现在错误的地方.
182	But in aggregate, I would say that societies	但总而言之,我要说社会
183	create pathways that microbes exploit	创建微生物利用的途径
184	to make their way through our midst.	让他们穿过我们中间
185	And each society or level of development of society	以及每个社会或社会发展水平
186	is different and is therefore susceptible	不同,因此容易发生
187	to different epidemic diseases.	对不同的流行病。
188	So this conviction became stronger and stronger.	因此这种信念变得越来越强大.
189	And that's really been part of the fascination	这真的是迷恋的一部分
190	of many of the years of my life.	我生命中的许多年
191	All right, that's great.	好吧,这是伟大的。
192	And I'm sure we'll have plenty of time	我敢肯定,我们将有足够的时间
193	to get into more detail into how exactly epidemics	更详细地了解流行病的准确性
194	are a mirror into society.	是进入社会的镜子
195	I also wanted to, we talked a little bit	我也想,我们聊了一会儿
196	about your personal experience with COVID	关于你对COVID的个人经历
197	and how you were actually in the field researching	和如何你实际上在现场研究
198	in Italy when everything sort of started going crazy	在意大利一切都开始疯狂
199	in Italy in particular.	特别是意大利。
200	And it became a full-blown,	它变成一个完整的,
201	it went from an epidemic in China	是从中国的流行中传来的
202	to a full-blown pandemic around the world.	全世界流行的流行病。
203	And so, in fact, when I first reached out to you,	所以,事实上,当我第一次联系你时,
204	I think this was probably in April or May,	我想这可能是在四月或五月,
205	it took a while for us to connect	我们花了一段时间才连接起来
206	因为你病了COVID
207	and trying to get back to the US.	并试图回到美国。
208	So what was that experience like	那段经历是什么?
209	having studied epidemics for so long,	研究流行病这么久,
210	but then all of a sudden you were doing your research	但突然间你又在做研究
211	and then you were actually in the middle of the pandemic,	然后,你实际上在流行中,
212	in the middle of getting this sickness and catching COVID?	在中间得到这个疾病和抓住COVID?
213	No, well, the first thing I obviously would say	不,我显然会说第一件事
214	is that it's not something I really recommend anyone	这不是我真正推荐的
215	to get COVID-19, so that would be a first point.	因此,这将是第一点。
216	But I would say that one of the things that happened to me	但我会说发生在我身上的事情之一
217	is that I was like everyone else in the world	我和世界上的其他人一样
218	in that my life plans for the year	我今年的生活计划
219	were entirely upended by this event.	被这次事件完全推迟。
220	I went to Italy because I wanted to do research	我去意大利是因为我想做研究
221	on something completely different,	在完全不同的事情上,
222	which was the role of Pope Pius XII	教皇皮乌斯十二世的作用
223	on the onset of the Cold War in Italy,	意大利冷战开始之际
224	Pope Pius XII being the Italian Pope	教皇庇护十二世是意大利教皇
225	who was there as Pope during the World War II	二战期间他作为教皇在场
226	and the Holocaust and the early post-war years.	大屠杀和战后早期。
227	And it's only very recently, in fact, in 2020,	而只是最近,事实上在2020年,
228	that his papers have been made available to scholars.	他的论文已经提供给学者
229	So I thought I would be spending the spring	所以我想我会花春天
230	and a bit of the summer in the archives of the Vatican.	和梵蒂冈的档案里的一些夏天
231	That was quite a mistaken assumption on my part.	这对我来说是一个相当错误的假设。
232	I got to Rome and it was a bit odd	我到了罗马,有点奇怪
233	because I had written that it was very likely	因为我写了很有可能
234	that there would be an epidemic of a viral disease	病毒性疾病的流行
235	in the not too distant future,	在不远的未来,
236	a claim for which I don't claim great originality	我并不认为他具有很强的独创性
237	because virologists have been making it since 1997.	因为病毒学家从1997年起就一直做这个
238	And so it's not something that I happened upon all by myself,	所以这不是我一个人发生的事情
239	but I did feel that there were lots of ways	但我确实觉得有很多方法
240	in which I could watch the world systematically	我可以系统地观察世界
241	unpreparing itself to face an event of that kind.	不准备面对那种事件
242	And so I wrote about that.	所以我就写了这个
243	And so it was particularly odd for me	所以对我来说特别奇怪
244	to have everything that I had considered important	拥有我认为很重要的一切
245	sort of colliding in front of my face,	那种碰撞在我面前,
246	my interest in Italian history,	我对意大利历史的兴趣
247	my interest in epidemic diseases, and then my own health.	我对流行性疾病的兴趣, 然后我自己的健康。
248	So I've not gone back to the Vatican.	所以我没有回到梵蒂冈
249	In fact, you can't at the moment,	事实上,你目前不能
250	but I've devoted myself to COVID-19	但我一直致力于COVID-19
251	and found that I suppose actually having contracted it	并发现,我认为实际上已经签约
252	may add a little bit to my street credibility.	可能会增加一点我街道的信誉。
253	So let's run with that.	所以,让我们运行。
254	But I think it's been not the year I expected	但我想这已经不是我想的一年了
255	as I suppose everyone here this evening and morning	我想大家今晚和早晨都在这里
256	is having a year they weren't expecting.	已经过了他们没想到的一年了
257	But nonetheless, it has been one makes the best of it	但是,尽管如此,它是一个使最好的它
258	and it's been extremely interesting.	和它一直非常有趣。
259	And I've been very happy to devote myself to this	我很高兴能专心致志
260	because I think that it's tremendously important	因为我认为这很重要
261	that we not forget what is happening	我们不会忘记发生了什么
262	and that we not leave the world	我们不会离开世界
263	and our own countries in the same place that they were	以及我们自己国家所处的同样位置
264	when 2020 started,	当2020年开始,
265	that this needs to be very, very carefully considered	这需要非常,非常仔细的考虑
266	the whole issue of preparedness	整个备灾问题
267	so that we leave to our children and grandchildren	以便我们离开我们的子孙,
268	a world that's more sustainable and much, much safer.	一个更可持续、更安全的世界。
269	And I say that not as a matter of loom and despair.	我这样说并不是出于绝望和绝望。
270	I don't feel that.	我不觉得。
271	I feel that we also have a tremendous opportunity	我觉得我们也有巨大的机会
272	that this terrible tragic series of events	这一系列可怕的悲剧事件
273	has really caught people's attention inevitably.	无可避免地引起了人们的注意
274	And so this is a time when it is important to talk	因此,此时此刻说话很重要
275	about the underlying significance of this,	关于它的根本意义,
276	what it represents, why we were vulnerable	它代表着什么,为什么我们是脆弱的
277	and those changes that we need to make.	以及我们需要做的改变。
278	And I for one could easily say to you	就我一个人来说,很容易对你说
279	that instead of feeling gloomy,	而不是感到沮丧,
280	that's a task that I could sign on to in a heartbeat.	我可以在心跳中签下这个任务
281	Right, so let's get into some of those particulars	好吧,我们来谈谈这些细节
282	of what we've observed and what we can learn.	我们所观察到的以及我们能够学到的
283	I'm sure that most of us don't have that scope of history	我敢肯定,我们大多数人没有那么广的历史范围
284	that you do in sort of understanding	以便你们了解,
285	just how significant this time period is.	这个时期有多重要
286	So I for one, and I think many people are rather shocked	所以我一个人,我觉得很多人相当震惊
287	at how inadequately the US and many other places	美国和许多其他地方的不足
288	have responded around the world.	全世界都有反应
289	And actually I recently went back	其实我最近回去了
290	and rewatched all your lectures online from your course,	然后从课程上重新观看了所有课程
291	which was over 10 years ago.	这是10多年前。
292	And even then you were saying,	即使当时你一直在说,
293	well, it's lucky that SARS and swine flu	幸好非典和猪流感
294	and avian flu weren't that serious	禽流感没那么严重
295	because it's a great dress rehearsal	因为它是一个伟大的服装排练
296	and practice for the big one to come.	并练习大者来。
297	And that was back in the early 2000s.	那是在2000年代初期。
298	And yet we clearly didn't learn our lesson.	但我们显然没有吸取教训。
299	And so I'm just curious why an epidemic,	所以我好奇为什么是流行病
300	especially one that's of a pulmonary viral disease	特别是肺病毒病
301	has long been anticipated by virologists	病毒学家早就预料到了
302	and epidemiologists and experts like yourself.	像你这样的流行病学家和专家
303	And yet despite such warnings,	然而,尽管如此警告,
304	the world has in general been very unprepared for that.	总的来说,世界对此毫无准备。
305	So what are some of the factors that you can point to	所以,什么是一些因素你可以指出
306	into why the things have played out the way they have?	进入为什么事情玩出了他们的方式?
307	I think I would say if I were to be asked	我想我会说,如果有人问我
308	to define the leading feature of COVID-19	定义COVID-19的主要特征
309	and why it reflects the nature of the society we are,	以及为什么它反映了我们社会的性质,
310	I would say that it's the first great pandemic disease	我想说这是第一个大流行性疾病
311	of the era of globalization.	全球化时代
312	And from the point of view by globalization,	从全球化的角度来看,
313	I mean our intense interconnectedness	我的意思是我们之间的紧密联系
314	around the planet.	环绕地球
315	And I would argue that in terms of many of its features,	我想说,就其许多特点而言,
316	that era begins after the fall of the Berlin Wall	柏林墙倒塌后的时代
317	and the fall of the Soviet Union	苏联的解体
318	because we then get the creation of a single world economy	因为我们得到了一个单一的世界经济的创造
319	that can be totally interconnected	可以完全连接
320	in the way that we now are.	就像我们现在这样
321	And so this interconnectedness, however,	然而,这种相互联系,
322	also creates serious vulnerabilities.	还造成了严重的脆弱性。
323	And these were exposed by the first,	这些是第一次暴露的,
324	I would say there's been a series of yellow warning lights.	我想应该有一系列黄色的警告灯
325	The first of these was avian flu in 1997.	第一个是1997年的禽流感。
326	And that led to a number of virologists	这导致了一些病毒学家
327	and indeed also historians and other observers to say,	历史学家和其他观察家说:
328	this really is something novel	这真的有点新奇
329	and could possibly exploit the vulnerabilities	并且可能利用脆弱性
330	of a society that's so intensely interconnected.	一个紧密相连的社会
331	We then had another yellow flashing light	之后又有黄色闪光灯
332	with SARS in 2003.	2003年与非典合并。
333	And it was in the wake of that	这是在之后
334	that the director general of the CDC in the United States,	美国疾控中心主任,
335	Julie Gerberding and Anthony Fauci,	朱莉·格伯丁和安东尼·福奇
336	whom everyone knows now,	现在大家都知道了
337	testified before the United States Senate.	在美国参议院作证。
338	And they made an interesting analogy.	他们做了一个有趣的类比。
339	They said that if you live in the Caribbean,	他们说如果你住在加勒比
340	meteorologists and climate scientists can tell you	气象学家和气候科学家可以告诉你
341	that it's with a near certainty	几乎可以肯定地说
342	that very soon you will experience a hurricane	很快你会经历一场飓风
343	that can't give you the exact date	那不能告诉你确切的日期
344	or the strength of the winds.	或风之力.
345	But they know that if you don't prepare,	但是他们知道如果你不准备
346	you're extraordinarily unwise.	你特别不明智
347	They said that this is exactly the same thing	他们说这完全一样
348	with regard to pulmonary viral diseases.	关于肺病毒疾病。
349	And Julie Gerberding actually said	而朱莉・格伯丁其实说
350	that we can expect a viral pulmonary disease	我们可以期待病毒性肺病
351	that's as devastating as the Spanish influenza	和西班牙流感一样毁灭性
352	in the not distant future.	在不远的未来。
353	And if we don't prepare for that,	如果我们不为此做好准备,
354	we will be equally unwise	我们将同样不明智
355	just like the person in the Caribbean	就像加勒比人一样
356	who didn't prepare for the hurricane.	他没有为飓风做准备
357	So after that, we see further warnings of this kind,	之后,我们又看到这种警告,
358	swine flu, MERS, Ebola.	猪流感,MERS,埃博拉。
359	And I think, and other countries	我想,还有其他国家
360	as well as the United States, in England,	以及美国,在英国,
361	there was a commission established	有个委员会已经成立
362	which produced much of the same prediction	也产生了很多相同的预测
363	that Anthony Fauci made in 2005.	安东尼·福西在2005年做的
364	This was a year or two later.	这是一两年后。
365	And then even as late as 2019,	然后即使迟至2019年,
366	the World Health Organization, the year before that,	世界卫生组织,
367	appointed a very distinguished international commission	任命了一个非常杰出的国际委员会
368	to examine the preparedness.	检查准备情况。
369	The former prime minister of Norway	挪威前首相
370	was the leader of that commission.	是那个委员会的领导者
371	And in 2019, note the date,	而在2019年,注意日期,
372	the report was published	报告已经发表。
373	and it had a very troubling title,	它有一个非常令人不安的标题,
374	which was a world at risk.	这个世界正面临危险
375	Now, what are these risks that were so clear?	现在,这些风险是什么如此清楚?
376	First is that we are now,	首先,我们现在是,
377	one aspect of globalization	全球化的一个方面
378	is about the population that is interconnected.	是关于相互关联的人口。
379	And we're now nearing, so demography is a major factor.	我们现在接近了,所以人口学是一个重要因素。
380	First in total numbers were nearly 8 billion people.	总人口中第一是近80亿人。
381	And we live in enormous cities,	我们生活在巨大的城市里
382	mega cities of 10, 20, 30 million people.	大城市人口为10,2,3000万人.
383	And this means also growing,	这也意味着增长,
384	ever growing density of population in those centers	这些中心的人口密度不断增加
385	and a rampant rate of industrialization.	以及工业化的猖獗。
386	It also means as a result	也意味着结果
387	that we're ever more invading animal habitat.	我们越来越入侵动物栖息地
388	And that is a dangerous process	这是一个危险的过程
389	if it's simply done haphazard	如果它只是做随机
390	and it leads to deforestation,	它会导致毁林,
391	therefore great climate change problems,	因此,严重的气候变化问题,
392	but also great disease vulnerabilities.	但也存在严重的疾病脆弱性。
393	Example, deforestation means that we destroy bat habitat	例如,砍伐森林意味着我们摧毁蝙蝠栖息地
394	and bats are the natural reservoirs	蝙蝠是天然的水库
395	for vast array of coronaviruses,	以大量的冕病毒,
396	some of which can be transmitted to human beings.	有些可以传递给人类
397	And in recent decades, we have been steadily building roads	近几十年来,我们一直在稳步建设道路
398	into forests where bats roots, invading bat caves.	进入森林的蝙蝠根, 入侵蝙蝠洞穴。
399	And so there is this process of human beings and bats	人类和蝙蝠的过程
400	being brought into ever closer proximity	越来越近了
401	and ever more frequently.	更频繁
402	And a bat we must remember is a wonderful animal	一只蝙蝠,我们必须记住它是一个美妙的动物
403	for transmitting viruses.	用于传播病毒。
404	That is to say, they roost in by the thousands	也就是说,他们被成千上万人包围
405	and more than one species	和多个物种
406	and they're immune to the coronaviruses.	并且对冠状病毒免疫
407	So they can pass the viruses to each other	这样他们就能互相传递病毒
408	and to different species of bats.	还有不同的蝙蝠种类
409	And this has been going on	这一直持续着
410	and it puts humanity at risk from this transmission.	它使人类面临这种传播的危险。
411	Particularly roads going into the forest.	特别是进入森林的道路
412	They also allow the sale of wild animal meat	还允许出售野兽肉
413	and markets all over a country like China.	和市场遍布中国这样的国家。
414	That it's called, I guess in the West, it's so often called,	我想在西方,它经常被称作
415	well, in any case, bushmeat, it can also be called game	无论如何灌木肉也叫游戏
416	and hunting is going off around in lots of places	在很多地方打猎
417	in the world.	在这个世界。
418	I don't want to say this is a particular feature of China	我不想说这是中国的特色
419	because it's happening all over the world.	因为它发生在世界各地。
420	And this risk happens all over the world as well.	这种风险也发生在世界各地。
421	So this relationship with the natural world	所以这种与自然界的关系
422	is filled with risk.	充满了风险。
423	Then there is a feature of another feature of it	还有一个特点
424	which is these dense cities	就是这些密集的城市
425	also are enormously interconnected	也有着巨大的联系
426	by rapid jet aircraft.	由快速喷气式飞机。
427	And we have the movement of millions of people	我们有数百万人的行动
428	around the world by that.	环绕世界
429	And they, with this interconnectedness,	他们,与这个相互联系,
430	if a disease, a virus breaks out,	如果疾病,病毒爆发,
431	and let's say in Kansas in the morning,	我们早上在堪萨斯州
432	it can be in Beijing and Rome	可以在北京和罗马
433	and Johannesburg in the evening.	晚上在约翰内斯堡
434	And so this is a level of risk that virologists were seeing.	这是病毒学家所看到的风险水平。
435	In other words, we are progressively creating	换句话说,我们正在逐步建立
436	an environment in which there will be almost inevitably	一种几乎不可避免的环境
437	increasing challenges by pulmonary viral diseases	肺病毒疾病带来的日益严重的挑战
438	and those viruses, we are creating the pathways	和那些病毒,我们正在创造路径
439	that they exploit through our cities,	他们从我们的城市中开发,
440	through our relationship with wild animals,	通过我们与野生动物的关系,
441	through mass movements of people, goods, services,	通过人员、货物、服务、
442	transportation all around the world.	环球交通.
443	And also there are other points about the environmental.	还有关于环境的其他几点。
444	We're creating environmental vulnerabilities	我们正在创造环境弱点
445	because for a viral disease,	因为病毒性疾病,
446	clearly it won't surprise anyone	很明显没人会惊讶的
447	that having inflammations of the lungs	肺有炎者,
448	are a vulnerability.	这是一种脆弱性。
449	And this is something that we are creating	这是我们在创造的东西
450	with immense problems of smog,	以烟雾之灾,
451	that is greenhouse gases and particulate matter	温室气体和颗粒物
452	that are ever-growing industrial lives	不断增长的工业生活
453	and ever-growing transport by road and engines	和不断增加的公路和发动机运输
454	and factories giving off these noxious chemicals	以及工厂送出这些有毒化学品
455	and particulate matter.	还有颗粒物
456	It's quite clear that there is a strong correlation	很明显,有很强的关联
457	and mapping clearly has demonstrated that.	地图绘制也清楚地证明了这一点。
458	That is to say if China was,	这就是说如果中国是
459	I think this is part of the vulnerability to China,	我认为这是中国的弱点之一
460	has had very strong problems of smog in the air	空气中的烟雾问题非常严重
461	and everyone knows that.	大家都知道这一点。
462	This is also true where I was living in the spring,	我住在春天的时候也是这样
463	that is to say Italy and particularly the north of Italy,	也就是说,意大利,特别是意大利北部,
464	the industrial and advanced agricultural area	工业区和先进农业区
465	has this tremendous black cloud for much of the year	一年中大部分时间都有这巨大的黑云
466	hanging over the poisonous gases and fine matter.	悬在毒气和细物上
467	And in fact, it is Lombardy which was the second epicenter	事实上,是伦巴第是第二中心
468	after Hubei province and Wuhan	在湖北省和武汉之后
469	in the world of the coronavirus epidemic.	在日冕病毒流行的世界里
470	That is a place that has the most intense concentration	这是一个最集中的地方
471	of air particulates and greenhouse gases in Europe.	欧洲的空气微粒和温室气体。
472	And they are stagnant there because this,	他们在那里停滞不前,因为,
473	the Po Valley in which it is located,	即它所在的宝谷,
474	which stretches for some,	使一部分人宽裕,
475	I'm inventing the figure, I'm probably wrong,	我发明的图, 我可能错了,
476	but something like 800 kilometers from west to east	但从西到东800公里
477	has, it's surrounded by mountains on three sides	被三面山包围着
478	and so it's a bowl in which the wind	风在碗里
479	doesn't disperse this material	不散开这种材料
480	and it sits there and is breathed in by the population.	它坐在那里,被人们吸进去。
481	Similarly in the United States,	同样在美国,
482	oh, it's also true other parts of Europe,	哦,这也是真实的欧洲其他地区,
483	Madrid has terrible problems of air pollution.	马德里存在严重的空气污染问题。
484	In the United States,	在美国,
485	if you map the pollution of the air	如果你绘制了空气污染图
486	onto the map geography of the United States,	在地图上的美国地理,
487	there's an enormously strong correlation	有一个非常强烈的关联
488	between places with air pollution	在有空气污染的地方之间
489	and vulnerability to coronavirus.	并且容易感染冠状病毒
490	So those, one could go on about globalization.	因此,我们可以继续谈论全球化。
491	I could give you examples of specifics	我可以给你一些具体的例子
492	of exactly what I mean to explain, for example,	比如说,我要解释的是,
493	why as soon as the virus broke out in Wuhan in China,	为何一旦病毒在中国武汉爆发
494	it was so likely that it would break out also	很有可能也会爆发
495	in Lombardy, Milan, Cremona, Bergamo	在伦巴第,米兰,克雷莫纳,贝加莫
496	that became the next epicenters of the disease.	这成为了这个疾病的下一个中心。
497	That was almost an inevitability.	这几乎是不可避免的。
498	And in answer to your question,	为了回答你的问题
499	virologists had seen these weaknesses in our society,	病毒学家在我们的社会中看到了这些弱点,
500	these new vulnerabilities to diseases of this kind	这些新的易感染此类疾病的脆弱性
501	and were sounding the alarm,	当时,我警告人们,
502	but unfortunately we weren't listening.	可惜我们没听
503	And from my point of view,	从我的观点来看,
504	the most poignant question raised during the course	在培训班期间提出的最尖锐的问题
505	of this epidemic was that by the US president,	这场流行病是美国总统
506	Donald Trump, who asked the question,	唐纳德·特朗普,谁提出这个问题,
507	who could have known?	谁知道呢?
508	And it strikes me extraordinary	这让我印象深刻
509	because everyone should have known, even I knew.	因为每个人都应该知道, 即使我知道。
510	And as you say, I knew in 2010,	正如你说的,我知道在2010年,
511	and I'm not bragging that simply I was reading.	我没有吹嘘我只是在读。
512	And that was quite obvious that this was,	很明显,这是,
513	we now live in a different kind of society	我们现在生活在不同的社会里
514	that has very particular vulnerabilities	特别脆弱
515	and microbes have no agency,	微生物没有代理,
516	but they do have the capacity to exploit the pathways	但他们确实有能力利用路径
517	that we create for them.	我们为他们而创造的。
518	And we're building, we have been building so many pathways	我们正在建造,我们一直在建造这么多的路径
519	and we haven't been thinking about in any coherent	而我们一直没有考虑在任何一致
520	or long-term systematic way about the consequences,	或对后果的长期系统方法,
521	assuming the responsibility for what we've done.	负起我们的责任
522	That's, I mean, that's the connection	我的意思是,这是连接
523	with the environment and health	环境与健康
524	and everything is so fascinating.	一切都是如此迷人。
525	And with this, but it's, so there are vulnerabilities,	有了这个,但它,所以有弱点,
526	but then there are also lack of responses	但也缺乏回应
527	that we've also seen or inadequate responses, right?	我们还看到或反应不足,对不对?
528	And so in particular, I think of the US,	我特别想到美国
529	even maybe you could argue in Italy in the beginning	甚至也许一开始你可以在意大利争论
530	or other places.	或其他地点。
531	So can we kind of, let's look specifically	所以,我们可以有点, 让我们特别看看
532	at some of these examples, right?	在其中的一些例子,对不对?
533	So I think Italy and the US are two	所以我觉得意大利和美国是两个
534	that you're very familiar with.	你对这个很熟悉
535	And then I think in comparison to, let's say,	然后我想,比起,让我们说,
536	parts of Asia, like China, Hong Kong, Taiwan,	亚洲部分地区,如中国,香港,台湾,
537	Southeast Asia, South Korea, who have,	东南亚、韩国,曾
538	they've done much better at controlling it.	他们控制得更好
539	So what accounts for, so the vulnerability is one thing,	原因何在所以脆弱性是一回事
540	but what accounts for the discrepancy	但有什么原因导致差异
541	and sort of the aftermath of how it's been dealt with?	并排序的后果如何处理它?
542	Right, the discrepancy down in the results	对,结果有出入
543	when it does appear after it began to appear in the world,	当它确实出现在它开始出现在世界,
544	there is this extraordinary variation	有一种不寻常的变化
545	in the effectiveness of responses in different countries.	(c) 不同国家应对措施的有效性。
546	And I would say that there are a couple of factors	我要说, 有几个因素
547	that explain why certain countries did very well	这解释了为什么某些国家表现很好
548	in terms of this disease.	以此病论.
549	Some of them, it's very surprising.	其中一些,这是非常令人惊讶的。
550	And I think a lot has to do with the fact	我觉得很多事情都与事实有关
551	that by and large, as Dr. Tedros,	基本上作为特德罗斯博士
552	the Director General of the WHO has said,	卫生组织总干事说,
553	there's been, since the turn of the century,	自从世纪之交以来
554	we've lived in terms of public health	我们一直生活在公共卫生方面
555	on a regimen of feast and famine.	在一个宴会和饥荒的药方上。
556	When those yellow lights that I was mentioning flashed,	当我提到的黄色灯光闪亮时
557	at first there was a wake-up call	刚开始有个叫醒
558	and people responded, that is people governments responded	人民政府的反应是
559	with additional funding, drawing up plans.	增加资金,制定计划。
560	But as soon as that receded into the background,	但是,一旦它退到背景,
561	there was the siren call of other priorities spending on	有警笛呼唤其他优先事项的支出
562	and cutting the budgets to public health	削减公共卫生预算;
563	and healthcare services.	卫生保健服务。
564	And this was not just one country, unfortunately.	不幸的是,这不仅仅是一个国家。
565	This is really a very prevalent feature	这真的是个很普遍的特点
566	of the last couple of decades.	过去几十年里
567	And so the point then is that when there was this outbreak,	所以当时的焦点是当这个爆发,
568	many places had, including Italy,	包括意大利在内的许多地方,
569	had decades of cutting their health systems,	数十年来削减他们的卫生系统,
570	their healthcare systems,	他们的卫生保健系统,
571	cutting their numbers of hospital beds.	减少医院床位数量。
572	This is one of the features I would say also	这是我也会说的一个特点
573	of healthcare for profit,	以营利为目的的保健;
574	that there was a desire to squeeze out the spare capacity	想要挤出备用能力
575	because it's not profitable to have beds and equipment	因为有床和设备没有好处
576	and personnel that aren't being utilized at that moment.	以及当时没有被利用的人员
577	So when you do have an emergency,	所以,当你有紧急情况,
578	once you've squeezed that out of the system,	一旦你把它挤出系统
579	you can't suddenly invent healthcare workers and doctors	你不能突然发明医护人员和医生
580	and beds and ICU as inventors and PPE.	以及作为发明者和个人防护设备的ICU。
581	We see this happening in country after country.	我们从一个国家到另一个国家都看到这种情况。
582	There were certain countries, however,	然而,有些国家,
583	that took this warning that responded coherently	这警告是一致的
584	to the yellow lights.	到黄灯。
585	And those were countries that had been scourged	那些曾经遭受灾难的国家
586	often repeatedly by epidemic disease	经常因流行病而反复出现
587	and had created structures to deal with them.	并建立了处理这些问题的结构。
588	And if you look at those countries,	如果你看看这些国家,
589	I'm not trying to make a comprehensive list,	我不是想做一个全面的列表,
590	but certainly South Korea was one.	当然,南朝鲜就是其中之一。
591	And that is largely related to the fact	这在很大程度上与事实有关
592	that it had experienced MERS.	说它经历了 MERS。
593	That had been its wake-up call.	这是它的警钟。
594	And it had decided that, yes, the virologists were right.	它决定,是的,病毒学家是对的。
595	Yes, there is a great vulnerability	是的,这是非常脆弱的
596	to this kind of disease in particular,	特别是这种疾病,
597	and we must be ready to take action should it appear.	我们必须准备好采取行动,如果它出现。
598	And so they were, and immediately they tested,	于是他们就做了试验,
599	did contact tracing, all of the things	有联系到追踪,所有的东西
600	that public health officials say should be done.	公共卫生官员说应该这样做。
601	A second example was surprising.	第二个例子是令人惊讶的。
602	And I can remember Dr. Tedros saying that	我记得特德罗斯医生说过
603	what he was asked the question,	他被问到什么了?
604	what keeps you awake at night?	是什么让你晚上醒着?
605	And this was about March, 2020.	这是关于2020年3月。
606	He said, what keeps me awake at night	他说,什么让我晚上醒着
607	is the anxiety about what will happen	是担心会发生什么
608	when this disease reaches one of the underfunded nations	当这种疾病蔓延到一个资金不足的国家时
609	of the world, resource poor nations as in Africa.	贫穷国家如非洲。
610	Well, what's so surprising is that resource poor countries	资源贫乏的国家
611	in Africa in some cases have done	在某些情况下,非洲有
612	so much more remarkably better.	更厉害了
613	That's amazing to hear that Rwanda and Senegal	听说卢旺达和塞内加尔
614	responded much more effectively to COVID-19	对COVID-19作出更有效的反应
615	than did Italy or the UK or the United States.	而不是意大利、联合王国或美国。
616	And it's shown in the figures of severe disease and death.	并见于重病及死亡之数.
617	And let me give an example and that is Senegal.	让我举一个例子,这就是塞内加尔。
618	Now Senegal didn't experience Ebola in 2014	塞内加尔在2014年没有出现埃博拉病毒
619	except marginally, but it's located adjacent	除了一点点,但是它的位置相邻
620	in West Africa to the three countries that did.	在西非,给三个国家。
621	That is to say, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone	也就是说,几内亚、利比里亚、塞拉利昂
622	and being so anxious in 2014,	在2014年变得如此焦虑,
623	they set up an sort of emergency surveillance	他们安排了紧急监视
624	and response system.	和反应系统。
625	And when COVID-19 appeared, they immediately	当COVID-19出现时,他们立刻
626	took decisive action, again, testing.	采取果断行动,再次测试。
627	They instituted, they closed what we would call	他们建立了,他们关闭了我们称之为
628	social distancing and mask wearing	社会距离和戴面具
629	and they closed public gatherings, mosques, schools,	他们关闭了公众集会、清真寺、学校,
630	they stopped international traffic by air.	他们停止了国际空中交通。
631	They stopped travel within the country.	他们停止了国内旅行。
632	They also began the prime minister went on the television	总理也开始上电视了
633	and radio every day and provided citizens with information.	每天都有广播,为公民提供信息。
634	There was a great wonderful messaging campaign	有个很棒的讯息活动
635	where one of the most popular singers in Senegal,	塞内加尔最受欢迎的歌手之一
636	a man Yusuf Endur actually wrote, it's like as if Bob Dylan	就像鲍勃·迪伦一样
637	had been recruited in the United States	在美国被招募
638	to proclaim to the youth that masking	向那些伪装的青年宣示
639	and social distancing were not something	和社交距离不是什么东西
640	that was an infringement on.	这是一种侵犯。
641	And then they were dancing to this song	然后他们跳这首歌
642	and other singers did as well.	其他歌手也一样
643	And they recruited artists who painted pictures	他们招募画画的艺术家
644	of how you need to wash your hands.	你该怎么洗手
645	They put basins and public squares	他们把盆子和公共广场
646	for people to practice hand hygiene.	以便人们练习手卫生。
647	And so all of this was very carefully organized.	所以这一切都是精心安排的。
648	And so in this country of 16 million people,	所以在这个有1600万人的国家里
649	they have only so far 400 deaths in Senegal,	在塞内加尔,迄今为止只有400人死亡,
650	which is to say a tiny fraction of the deaths	也就是说死亡的一小部分
651	per 100,000 in population that we have in the UK	我们英国每10万人口
652	or in the United States.	或在美国。
653	And I think it's an extraordinary achievement	我认为这是一个非凡的成就
654	for a country that has only seven doctors	一个只有七名医生的国家
655	for 100,000 population, but they use their resources.	10万人口,但他们利用了自己的资源。
656	They took the necessary steps	他们采取必要步骤
657	and they were able to contain the disease	他们能够控制疾病
658	before it created a tragedy on a huge scale.	在它制造了巨大的悲剧之前
659	And they were also able to avoid this false dichotomy	他们也能避免这种虚假的二分法
660	that we seem obsessed with at least in the UK	我们似乎迷恋至少在英国
661	and in the US.	在美国
662	And that is we have to have either public health	那就是,我们必须有无论是公共卫生
663	or an economy that's open and functioning.	或经济开放和运行。
664	And that's an entirely false dichotomy.	这是完全错误的二分法。
665	You can't have an economy that's opening and functioning	你不能有一个经济的开放和运行
666	unless you first contain the disease.	除非你首先控制了疾病。
667	And Senegal and Rwanda actually provide good examples	塞内加尔和卢旺达实际上提供了很好的例子
668	of how they contain the disease	他们如何控制疾病
669	and their economies remained open.	它们的经济仍然开放。
670	So this is, I think, a moment when I think anyone	所以,我想,这是一个时刻我想任何人
671	in a powerful industrial nation needs to feel	在一个强大的工业国家,需要感受
672	a certain apprehension in thinking	在思想中有一种恐惧,
673	that if a study was done	如果进行了研究
674	of the effectiveness of the responses	答复的有效性
675	of 36 countries in the world,	世界上36个国家,
676	and they were ranked in order,	他们依次排列,
677	of the 36, the US occupied place number 31.	美国占领区第31号
678	And Senegal and New Zealand were the top two.	塞内加尔和新西兰位居前两位。
679	I think that's extraordinary.	我认为这是非凡的。
680	And Rwanda was way, way ahead of the UK	卢旺达远在英国的前面
681	and the United States in terms of severe illness and death.	在美国和在重病和死亡方面
682	And this is because this is not mysterious.	这是因为这不是神秘的。
683	It's not a matter of luck.	非运之事.
684	A part of it is luck.	它的一部分是运气。
685	Their demography was favorable.	他们的人口结构是有利的。
686	It's true that Senegal in this particular case	塞内加尔确实在这种特殊情况下
687	was fortunate to have a youthful population	幸运的是有年轻人口
688	that was demographic good fortune,	这是人口上的好运气,
689	but they were vulnerable also.	但他们也很脆弱。
690	And it was that they followed science	他们遵循科学
691	and they followed the dictates of scientific public health.	他们遵循科学公共卫生的指令
692	The Institute, the Pasteur Institute in Dakar	该研究所、达喀尔巴斯德研究所
693	produced enormous numbers of vaccines	生产了大量疫苗
694	and the WHO was available to help	卫生组织可以提供帮助
695	and provide assistance and guidance.	并提供援助和指导。
696	So this is, I think, an interesting contrast.	所以,我认为,这是一个有趣的对比。
697	And so learning the lessons of those yellow lights	所以从黄灯中吸取教训
698	{\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}那些闪耀的画面向我们展示了
699	a really sad feature of this disease,	这种疾病非常悲惨,
700	which is to say, in my opinion,	也就是说,在我看来,
701	that such an extraordinary percentage	如此特殊的百分比
702	of the suffering and the death was unnecessary	痛苦和死亡是不必要的
703	had nations organized and practiced	组织并实践
704	scientifically directed public health	科学指导的公共卫生
705	and brought their populations along	并带来了他们的人民,
706	by careful and well-engineered messaging.	通过精心设计的信息。
707	And that, alas, is exactly what didn't happen.	而这正是没有发生的。
708	Absolutely.	当然
709	And we can only hope that those lessons,	我们只能希望这些教训,
710	that we'll be humble enough to learn those lessons	我们会谦卑地学习这些教训
711	as a collective in society.	作为社会中的一个集体。
712	I guess a slightly more positive note,	我想一个略好一点的音符,
713	we did see with globalization,	我们确实看到了全球化,
714	the ability for scientists to collaborate rather quickly	科学家相当迅速地合作的能力
715	and they were willing to do that.	他们愿意这样做。
716	And we've seen organizations like the WHO	我们见过像世卫组织这样的组织
717	sort of fulfill the niche that they were supposed to.	某种程度上完成了他们应该完成的任务
718	And I know that you've sort of worked with the WHO	我知道你和WHO合作过
719	and their think tanks in helping them	他们的智囊团帮助他们
720	to produce reports and things like that.	制作报告和类似的东西。
721	So what was, I guess,	那么,什么是,我想,
722	what was the role of the WHO supposed to play?	卫生组织的作用是什么?
723	Did it play it the way it was supposed to?	弹得像话吗?
724	And what lessons can we draw	我们能学到什么
725	from this particular pandemic for the future?	未来这种流行病的传播?
726	And so that's the WHO specifically.	特别是世卫组织
727	And then I think to sort of expand that	然后我想有点扩大
728	to just the general question of what can governments	政府可以采取什么措施?
729	and kind of larger entities in general	以及一般规模较大的实体
730	learn from this pandemic?	从这种流行病中吸取教训?
731	Right.	对
732	Well, I do want to be clear	我想说清楚
733	that I did, as you said,	正如你说的,我做到了,
734	work with the WHO as part of its think tank	与卫生组织合作,作为其智囊团的一部分
735	in deciding that public health and epidemiology	决定公共卫生和流行病学
736	needed to include,	需要包括:
737	and this was the first time in its history,	这是有史以来第一次,
738	to include looking at the past	包括回顾过去
739	and learning what past experience was	并学习过去的经验
740	and what one can learn from it	以及从中可以学到什么
741	to help guide practice in the future.	帮助指导今后的实践。
742	And the epidemiologists at the WHO were saying	世卫组织的流行病学家说
743	that one of the problems is that epidemiology	其中一个问题是流行病学
744	as a discipline, as it's taught,	作为一个纪律, 正如它所教导的,
745	has traditionally been more or less	传统上是多少
746	about emergency response.	关于应急反应。
747	And that is playing the role of firemen	这就是扮演消防员的角色
748	and that what actually needs to happen as well,	而实际需要发生的事情,
749	that is important.	这很重要。
750	No one wants to dismantle that.	没有人想拆除它。
751	But in addition, it needs to take on the role	但除此之外,它还需要承担
752	of removing the causes that allowed the fire	消除导致火灾的原因
753	to happen in the first place.	首先发生。
754	And so it's that the think tank I was part of	所以,这就是,智囊团我的一部分
755	what we were thinking about	我们在想什么
756	and making reservations and observations,	并提出保留和意见,
757	is what I'm trying to say,	我想说的是,
758	and suggestions for the future.	以及对未来的建议。
759	So that is ongoing and that's a lesson	所以,这是持续和这是一个教训
760	that the WHO has learned.	世卫组织已经了解到。
761	But I'm not an employee of the WHO	但我不是卫生组织的雇员
762	and I want to be clear that I also feel	我想说清楚我也觉得
763	that the WHO was partially successful,	卫生组织取得了部分成功,
764	but only partly and made many mistakes during this pandemic.	但在这一大流行病期间只犯了部分错误。
765	And I don't want to make a sort of mythology	我不想做一种神话
766	about the WHO.	关于卫生组织。
767	But let me say something very positive to begin,	但是,让我说一些非常积极的开始,
768	which is that I think when people talk about internationalism	我觉得当人们谈论国际主义时
769	from my point of view and perspective,	从我的观点和角度来看,
770	microbes are the first great internationalists.	微生物是第一个伟大的国际主义者。
771	And therefore, as human beings,	因此,作为人类,
772	if we're going to be able to combat them effectively,	如果我们能有效对付他们
773	we too need to be internationalists.	我们也需要成为国际主义者。
774	That is to say that part of our survival mechanism	这就是说,我们生存机制的一部分
775	is having a strong, well-staffed and skillfully staffed	人手强壮工作能力强
776	and well-funded WHO.	和资金充足的卫生组织。
777	One of the tragedies at the moment was the withdrawal.	目前发生的悲剧之一是撤军。
778	Just at the moment when the world most needed	就在世界最需要的时候
779	this institution, the United States withdraws from it.	美国从该机构撤出。
780	That seems to me a real tragedy	这对我来说真是悲剧
781	because why do we need this institution?	为什么我们需要这个机构?
782	We need an international response	我们需要国际反应
783	to international invasions of these microbes.	这些微生物的国际入侵。
784	Microbes do not respect walls.	微生物不尊重墙壁。
785	They don't respect national boundaries.	他们不尊重国界.
786	And I think one of the saddest features of this period	我认为这一时期最悲哀的特征之一
787	would be if this period in our history	如果我们历史上的这个时期
788	came to be recognized by the metaphor of the wall.	被墙的比喻认出来了
789	And I think that that's not what we want.	我认为这不是我们想要的。
790	It's not effective and it completely misplaces	没用的而且完全错位了
791	the deployment of the resources needed to make us safe.	部署必要的资源,使我们安全。
792	So we need a WHO to provide example,	所以我们需要卫生组织提供例子,
793	to provide skilled personnel,	提供熟练人员,
794	to be able to practice surveillance,	能够进行监视,
795	to be able to talk to every government in the world	能够和世界每个政府交谈
796	and rally support for a coherent plan of action	并动员各方支持协调一致的行动计划
797	that it can help guide and direct.	它能帮助引导和指导。
798	It can help move resources ideally	最好能帮助转移资源
799	from one country to another.	从一个国家到另一个国家。
800	And in the intervals when there are not	在没有时间间隔的时候
801	major pandemic threats,	重大大流行病威胁,
802	they can relate to ministers of public health	它们可以与公共卫生部长有关
803	and prime ministers and presidents	总理和总统
804	and try to persuade them about the need for funding	并试图说服他们需要资金
805	on an ongoing, consistent and coherent basis.	持续、一致和一致。
806	That is a role, the bully pulpit, as it's sometimes said,	这是一个角色, 欺负的脉冲, 正如它有时说,
807	needs to be practiced in international diplomacy.	需要在国际外交中实践。
808	So we need an organization,	所以我们需要一个组织
809	not the WHO that we have because we've underfunded it.	而不是我们拥有的WHO 因为我们的资金不足。
810	It hasn't been staffed and organized	还没安排好人手
811	in the way that it should be.	在它应该的方式。
812	Even its own perspective by its own admission now	即使是自己现在承认的观点
813	has been that of an emergency responder	曾经是应急人员
814	rather than actually thinking of something more long-term	而不是实际上思考更长期
815	in terms of public health.	在公共卫生方面。
816	So it's this other WHO that's critical	关键是另一个卫生组织
817	to being able to deal with this response in that way.	能够以这种方式处理这种反应。
818	And we also need other international organizations,	我们还需要其他国际组织,
819	the European Union, which can play an enormous role	欧洲联盟可以发挥巨大作用。
820	in time of epidemic emergency.	在流行病紧急情况下。
821	And it was tragic too,	这也很悲惨,
822	that the European Union was fragmented	欧洲联盟支离破碎
823	and had no coherent common policy	并且没有一致的共同政策
824	and then come across the waters to the United States.	然后穿过水面来到美国
825	And I guess what I saw in Italy,	我想我在意大利看到的东西
826	I'm not also going to make a mythology about Italy.	我并不打算为意大利制造一个神话.
827	Italy had a terrible experience of COVID-19	意大利在COVID-19上有过可怕的经历
828	and there are many mistakes that it made.	它犯了很多错误。
829	On the other hand, it was striking to someone who lived	另一方面,它令人惊讶的是,有人谁生活
830	and could compare Italy, a country in the European Union	并且可以比较意大利,一个欧洲联盟国家
831	with the United States.	与美国。
832	And what I observed in Italy was that belatedly,	我在意大利观察到的是迟到,
833	I must say, the prime minister of Italy,	我必须说,意大利总理,
834	I don't want to make him into some mystical sort of hero	我不想让他变成神秘的英雄
835	because he responded late to the emergency	因为他对紧急情况的反应很迟
836	after the genie was already out of the bottle.	在精灵已经出瓶后
837	But once he did respond,	但是一旦他回应了
838	it was in terms of really clear messaging,	说得很清楚
839	that rigorous lockdown, a severe lockdown	严加封锁,严加封锁
840	that went far beyond what almost any place	远远超出了几乎任何地方
841	in the United States experienced was imposed.	在美国的经验被强加。
842	And you weren't allowed to leave your home	不准你离开家
843	except to purchase supplies.	但购买用品除外。
844	I know China had some obviously a very severe response	我知道中国显然有非常严重的反应
845	as well.	临Τ
846	In Italy, some of those measures were also applied.	意大利也实施了其中一些措施。
847	What was interesting was that all the political parties	有趣的是所有政党
848	supported this.	支持这一点。
849	And also there was a consensus among public health officials	公共卫生官员之间也达成了共识
850	that this was the right thing to do.	这样做是正确的。
851	And I remember the prime minister went on television	我记得首相上电视了
852	and said, this is the situation, it's an emergency	并说,这是情况, 这是一个紧急情况
853	and our future of our country depends on it.	我们国家的未来就靠它了
854	So mobilizing popular support and saying that	因此,动员大众的支持并说
855	we have no vaccine,	我们没有疫苗
856	we don't have effective treatments for the disease.	我们没有有效的治疗疾病。
857	We have only the traditional practices of public health	我们只有传统的公共卫生习惯
858	of distancing, quarantine, isolation, masking.	隔离隔离蒙面
859	And those are the measures that are needed	这些都是需要采取的措施
860	to protect yourselves, to protect your families,	保护自己保护家人
861	your neighborhoods, your cities and to save your country.	为了拯救自己的国家
862	What was extraordinary then was to see the response.	当时最不寻常的是看到反应。
863	In Rome, there's a newspaper called Il Mesegeto	在罗马,有一份名为Il Mesegeto的报纸
864	and it wrote in a sentence I'll never forget.	它在句子里写着我永远不会忘记
865	It said, this is the first time in 3000 years	上面说这是3000年来第一次
866	of the history of the city of Rome	罗马城的历史
867	that the population has ever been obedient.	民众是顺从的。
868	And what was interesting about that,	有趣的是,这个
869	you could actually see for yourself before your very eyes.	你可以亲眼看见
870	I went and stood in lines outside supermarkets	我去超市外面排队
871	and you could hear the conversations people saying,	你可以听到人们说,
872	oh, this is really tough, but we're all in it together.	哦,这真的很难, 但我们都在一起。
873	And it's also the case, other people have had this before	情况也一样,其他人以前也经历过这个
874	maybe in the Blitz in London in World War II	也许在二战中在伦敦的布莱茨
875	it was like this also.	就是这样
876	So we have to collaborate and get through it together.	所以我们必须合作一起渡过难关
877	And signs appeared on balconies,	柱子上有迹象,
878	everything will end up okay and so on.	一切都会好起来的
879	And there was a great deal then of compliance	当时遵守了很多规定
880	with what the government was calling on the people to do.	以及政府号召人民做的事
881	It was as if, if I could use a musical analogy,	就像,如果我可以用一个音乐类比,
882	as if you had a symphony orchestra	就像你有一个交响乐团
883	and each player had an instrument and a score	每个玩家都有乐器和乐谱
884	and there was a conductor.	有个指挥员
885	And so you get a sound that's coherent	所以,你得到的声音是连贯的
886	and that you can listen to.	你可以听从。
887	In the United States, you get exactly the opposite.	在美国,你得到完全相反。
888	You have this extraordinary fragmentation	你有一个非凡的分裂
889	where you have a president saying one thing,	你有一个总统说一件事
890	a president's advisor saying something else.	一个总统顾问在说别的事
891	Then you have 50 governors of the 50 states	那你有50个州的50个州长
892	all contradicting each other.	都相互矛盾
893	And then you have municipalities taking different stances,	你们的市镇采取了不同的立场,
894	health boards and local school boards again,	卫生委员会和地方学校委员会,
895	or the mayor of a city as in New York,	或者纽约的市长
896	contradicting the governor of the state of New York,	与纽约州州长矛盾
897	et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.	等诸经.
898	And so to use the musical analogy, I guess I would say,	所以,用音乐类比, 我想我会说,
899	this was if imagine the situation	这是如果想象的情况
900	where you had an orchestra and each player,	在那里你有一个管弦乐团和每个演奏家,
901	you gave a different score to play	你给了不同的分数
902	and then you don't have a conductor	然后你没有导师
903	and they just all start.	他们只是开始。
904	And what you have is cacophony, chaos.	你拥有的就是恶毒混乱
905	And that's what I think the US response was like.	我认为美国的反应就是这样的。
906	So without mythologizing the Italian response,	因此,没有神话化意大利的反应,
907	which was belated and misguided in a variety of ways,	已逝去的、已逝去的、已逝去的、已逝去的、
908	but it had one thing that the US desperately needed	但有一件事美国迫切需要
909	and that was coherence and adherence to science	并且这是一致和坚持科学
910	and messaging with one voice.	并用一个声音传递信息。
911	Well, I can keep going and asking you questions forever,	我可以一直问你问题
912	but I wanna open it up to some of the other people	但我想向其他人开放
913	who have been so patient and listening.	他们是坚忍的,是倾听的。
914	Helen, let's start with you.	海伦,我们从你开始
915	If you could come up with the first question or two.	如果你能想出第一个问题
916	And then while Helen is asking those questions,	海伦问这些问题的时候
917	if you guys have questions,	如果你们有问题
918	this is what we'll do is in the chat function	这是我们在聊天功能中要做的
919	on the bottom of your Zoom box,	在你的缩放盒底部,
920	you can go ahead and type in your question	你可以继续输入你的问题
921	and we'll try to get through as many of those as we can.	我们会尽量通过这些
922	And I'm guessing that many people will have similar questions	我猜很多人也会有类似的问题
923	so I'll try to consolidate them into a single question.	所以我会试着把它们合并成一个问题。
924	We already have one in the chat box.	我们已经有一个在聊天盒。
925	So yeah, if you guys could go ahead and do that	所以,是的,如果你们可以继续做
926	while Helen is asking the first question.	海伦问第一个问题
927	Go ahead, Helen.	来吧,海伦。
928	Okay, so something that's worsened the damage done	好吧,所以有些东西恶化了破坏
929	by COVID-19 would be probably the recent political climate	可能就是最近的政治气候
930	and the increasing prevalence of fake news	以及假新闻日益盛行
931	and doubting of scientific fact.	和怀疑科学事实。
932	Many are rejecting science in the name of anti-elitism.	许多人以反极端主义的名义拒绝科学。
933	So what is your response to this	你对此有什么反应?
934	and how do you think we should approach people	你觉得我们应该怎么接近别人
935	behind these thoughts as controlling pandemics	控制流行病
936	are about encouraging masses to take preventive methods?	是鼓励大众采取预防方法?
937	Right, well, Joshua Lederberg said quite some time ago,	约书亚·莱德伯格很久以前说过
938	40 years, I don't remember,	40年了我不记得了
939	but it was the late 20th century.	但是那是20世纪末
940	And he said that if one looks at the natural world,	他说,如果看一看自然世界,
941	it seems extremely perilous for our species	这对我们人类来说是极其危险的
942	because of the numbers of microbes	因为微生物的数量
943	that are infectious are practically infinite.	传染性几乎是无限的。
944	And they evolve and multiply almost instantaneously.	它们几乎瞬间进化和倍增。
945	And we as human beings have a position	作为人类,我们的立场
946	in which what we really have is only our wits	我们真正拥有的只有智慧
947	to protect us.	保护我们
948	I would add our wits and our capacity	我要加上我们的智慧和能力
949	if we so choose to collaborate	如果我们选择合作
950	because I think that's equally important.	因为我认为这同样重要
951	Now, the point is that in this case that did not happen,	现在,重要的是,在这个没有发生的情况下,
952	we did not use our wits.	我们没有使用我们的智慧。
953	Our wits mean using actual,	我们的智慧意味着使用实际,
954	that is provable scientific data,	这是可证明的科学数据,
955	data-driven responses to problems of public health.	数据驱动的公共卫生问题对策。
956	And it was an extraordinary thing to hear	听到这个很特别
957	that the Republican party in the United States	美国共和党
958	actually is one of the few parties in the world	其实是世界上为数不多的聚会之一
959	that doesn't believe in climate science.	不相信气候科学
960	And also clearly did not believe in public health science	而且显然不相信公共卫生科学
961	that this we heard is just the flu or it's just a cold,	我们听到的只是流感或者只是感冒
962	or it will disappear by itself, all these sorts of things.	或者它会自己消失, 所有这类事情。
963	I think what needs to happen was for an educational process.	我认为需要发生的是教育过程。
964	And I think this is something else that's important.	我认为这很重要
965	There have been studies of political leadership	对政治领导力进行了研究
966	in the UK and in the United States	在联合王国和美国
967	where they bring political leaders into a room	他们把政治领袖带到一个房间
968	and confront them with data on an evolving basis	并在不断演变的基础上向它们提供数据
969	over a series of days and problems	日复一日和问题
970	and how they're going to respond to those challenges.	以及他们将如何应对这些挑战。
971	And what they found in both the United States and Britain	以及他们在美国和英国发现的东西
972	is that statesmen and politicians know really very little	政治家和政治家对
973	about public health problems.	关于公共卫生问题。
974	And so part of the task, I believe, is one of education,	所以,我相信,任务的一部分是教育,
975	education of the political leadership,	教育政治领导人,
976	commitment of the political leadership	政治领导人的承诺
977	to take seriously science, to fund science,	认真对待科学,为科学提供资金,
978	to have scientific advice listened to, heard and followed.	听取、听取和遵循科学建议。
979	And that's important.	这很重要。
980	And then to explain to the public	然后向公众解释
981	that this is a dangerous situation.	这是一种危险的情况。
982	I think people can be responsible	我想人们可以承担责任
983	if their intelligence is consulted	如果咨询他们的情报
984	and brought to bear on the problem.	并带来了问题。
985	I think what was happening was that the American population	我认为正在发生的事情是美国人口
986	was being infantilized and they were not being given	被幼稚化了却得不到
987	truthful and accurate and coherent information.	真实、准确和连贯的信息。
988	And in that sense, it's not fair to blame the public	从这个意义上讲,责备公众是不公平的
989	for the fact that so many people weren't willing	因为这么多人不愿意
990	to collaborate with the sacrifices	与牺牲合作
991	because they didn't understand them.	因为他们不了解他们
992	And they had been lied to about what their purpose was	他们被欺骗了他们的目的是什么
993	and what their effectiveness might be.	以及其效力可能是什么。
994	So we can do much better than that and we can and we will.	这样,我们就能做得更好,而且我们能够而且将会做得更好。
995	And so that's the challenge that needs to happen.	这就是需要面对的挑战。
996	But one can imagine messaging that's so much more coherent.	但人们可以想象,信息会更加一致。
997	If Senebalk and Rwanda can do it,	如果塞内巴尔克和卢旺达能做到
998	why can't the advanced countries of the world do it?	为什么世界先进国家不能这样做?
999	They were able to mobilize their artists,	他们能够动员他们的艺术家,
1000	graffiti painters, musicians.	涂鸦画家,音乐家.
1001	They went on television and radio and use social media.	他们上电视和广播,使用社交媒体。
1002	What is wrong with us in terms of imagination	在想象力方面我们有什么问题
1003	that these things were not done	这些事情没有做
1004	in the United States as well?	也在美国?
1005	Okay, thank you.	好的谢谢
1006	Also, something I found incredibly interesting	还有,我发现有趣的东西
1007	was your analysis of the sources of viral diseases	是你对病毒病源的分析
1008	and how many actually arise due to our invasive expansion	以及由于入侵性扩张实际产生了多少
1009	into animal habitats, exposing ourselves	进入动物栖息地暴露自己
1010	to various viral illnesses.	感染各种病毒性疾病
1011	This is obviously a process driven by large forces,	这显然是一个过程由大力量驱动,
1012	but what is the best approach to changing this?	但改变这种状况的最佳办法是什么?
1013	That's an interesting and I'll see if I can answer.	这很有趣,我看看能不能回答
1014	What it seems to me is there isn't a single thing	在我看来,没有一件事
1015	that needs, that is one thing alone won't solve the problem.	需要的就是单靠这点解决不了问题
1016	But a first thing is a sort of short-term thing	但第一件事是短期的
1017	that needs to happen and that is surveillance.	这需要发生,这就是监视。
1018	And that is something that the world pledged it would do	这是世界承诺要做的事
1019	and after SARS and there was a great to do	在非典之后,还有一件大事要做
1020	about practicing surveillance in parts of the world	关于在世界各地进行监视
1021	where spillover was likely to occur and it didn't happen	可能发生外溢而未发生
1022	and it happened in an inadequate way.	却以不适当的方式发生。
1023	That's important because it's important	这很重要,因为它很重要
1024	But beyond that, one needs to go further and remove some of the root causes, and this is a moment of crisis for our planet and for our health.	但除此以外,我们还需要更进一步,消除一些根源,这是我们星球和健康面临危机的时刻。
1025	And that has to do with the destruction of the environment.	这和破坏环境有关。
1026	And that's manifested, I think it's one of the silver linings in this dark story is that there are new understandings that are emerging.	这表明,我认为这是这个黑暗故事中的一条光明线, 即出现了新的理解。
1027	And one of them is that two disciplines that are vital that have always been almost always been along separate tracks have now seen that they're in separately bound together.	其中之一是两个至关重要的学科一直以来几乎总是沿着不同的轨道走现在它们已经分开了
1028	And that is public health and environmentalism, that you really need both in the modern world, and that environmentalism is now teaching us not only that we need surveillance, but actually we need to control the deforestation that it's destroying	这就是公共卫生和环境主义, 在现代世界你确实需要, 环境主义现在教导我们,我们不仅需要监控, 而且实际上我们需要控制森林砍伐,它正在摧毁。
1029	the planet, and it's also creating enormous new problems for our health.	也给我们的健康带来了巨大的新问题
1030	And so that's a longer term issue that really needs to be confronted, and we need immediately to rejoin the climate	因此,这是一个长期的问题, 真的需要面对, 我们需要立即重新加入气候
1031	international climate regimen and begin as the United States to be a member of the, the agreement, and to address the whole issue of greenhouse gases and deforestation and we see this happening all over the world and it's happening as everyone	国际气候计划并开始作为美国加入协议, 并解决整个温室气体和砍伐森林问题,
1032	knows, in Africa, and this is where it's not only that it happened in China with regard to spillover from bats to human beings, and we have coronavirus, it happened in West Africa, with Ebola started in the same way with the destruction of bat habitat.	在非洲,不仅在蝙蝠向人类的外溢发生在中国, 而且我们有冠状病毒, 发生在西非,埃博拉的起源与蝙蝠栖息地的破坏相同。
1033	And the index case was a child playing in the hollow of a tree in which thousands of bats pushed away from the canopy of the forest were roosting, and he breathed in the fumes from their droppings.	指数箱是一个孩子在树的空洞中玩耍, 成千上万的蝙蝠从森林的树冠中被推开, 他用他们的滴水在烟雾中呼吸。
1034	And that was the index case and DNA research has demonstrated that the other cases in Guinea all originated from this one case, and there was this sense that people had that globalization wasn't really a reality in the media that this was a remote forest	这就是索引案例,DNA研究表明几内亚的其他案例都来自这个案例, 有这种感觉人们有全球化不是真的现实在媒体这是一个遥远的森林
1035	that and darkest Africa, where this really extraordinary and surprising thing happened because of the strange dietary preferences of the population.	和最黑暗的非洲, 在那里,这个非常不同寻常和令人惊奇的事情发生了, 因为人们奇怪的饮食偏好。
1036	In fact, that's not true at all.	事实上,这根本不是真的。
1037	It would have taken what 100,000	那要花十万块
1038	bushmeat incidents to create the Ebola epidemic that we saw.	灌木肉类事件制造埃博拉疫情我们所看到的。
1039	That wasn't what was happening.	事情不是这样的
1040	It was just a limited small number that multiplied because of the conditions and part of the vulnerability was that Guinea and its forests were entirely brought into the world economy	几内亚及其森林完全进入世界经济,只是数量有限的少数,由于条件和部分脆弱性而倍增。
1041	and interconnectedness that we've been talking about, that the forests were filled with paths and roads and loggers went in and miners went in, and they were also planting palm oil trees and great plantations were taking place.	以及我们一直在谈论的相互联系, 森林充满了道路和道路, 伐木工走进, 矿工走进, 他们也在种植棕榈油树, 并正在种植大种植园。
1042	So the last thing that this was, was an isolated corner of the world.	所以,这是最后一件事, 是一个孤立的世界角落。
1043	There are no more isolated corners, and this supposed isolated corner is not any more than the forests in the Congo or in Brazil are isolated from the rest of the world.	没有比这里更孤立的角落了,这个所谓的孤立角落也不过是刚果或巴西的森林与世界其他地方隔绝在一起。
1044	The forest are being progressively destroyed with terrible results on the climate, and climate too, we can talk more about that, has immediate and devastating health implications apart from the ones we've discussed, but it clearly does lead to a falsifica	森林正在逐渐被破坏,对气候和气候也造成了可怕的后果,我们可以更多地谈论这一点,除了我们讨论过的那些问题之外,还有对健康的立即和毁灭性影响,但它显然导致了对人际关系的伪造。
1045	beings with the other species that inhabit our planet, and that's where we now have an extraordinary risk.	人类与其他物种栖息在我们的星球上, 而这就是我们现在有一个特别的风险。
1046	Bats are, now there's nothing wrong with the bat, and bats are not attacking human beings, and it makes me really anxious when I hear that some people	蝙蝠是,现在没有什么错蝙蝠没有攻击人类, 它让我非常焦虑当我听到一些人
1047	calling the bat population.	呼叫蝙蝠种群。
1048	It's not that the bat is innocent and not dangerous.	并不是蝙蝠是无辜的,也不是危险的.
1049	It's what we do in the world that the bat lives in.	这是我们在世界上所做的,蝙蝠生活在其中。
1050	That's where the problem emerges, and that's where spillover occurs, and we're at fault, not the bat.	问题就在这里出现, 也就是溢出现象发生的地方, 我们错了,不是蝙蝠。
1051	All right, thank you.	好吧,谢谢你。
1052	Thank you, Helen.	谢谢你,海伦。
1053	Let's turn over to some of the audience questions, and if we have time, we might be able to jump back in.	让我们来谈谈一些观众的问题,如果我们有时间,我们也许可以重新跳进去.
1054	And again, anybody that has questions, feel free to type it out in the chat box in the bottom of your zoom screen, and we'll try to get through as many as we can.	再说一遍,任何有疑问的人, 都可以在放大屏幕底部的聊天箱里输入, 我们会尽量通过。
1055	We have a question from Richard Song.	宋理查有个问题
1056	He asks, why are pandemics underplayed in teaching history?	他问,为何在教学历史中低估流行病?
1057	And he gives the example of the plague of Athens during the Siege of Athens in the Peloponnesian War, the fall of the Pax Romana, as well as the plagues in the so-called New World during the conquests.	并且他举出雅典围城战争中雅典的瘟疫,大同战役的陷落,以及征服期间所谓新世界的瘟疫为例.
1058	So just to name a few.	所以,只是举几个例子。
1059	So why are pandemics underplayed throughout the teaching of history?	因此,为什么在历史教学中,流行病被低估了?
1060	I'm delighted with this question, and it's one of the issues to which I've been devoting the last few decades, which is to try to recapture health and epidemic disease as major features in the way that our world has evolved.	我很高兴这个问题, 并且这是我过去几十年一直致力于的问题之一, 就是试图重新找回健康和流行病, 作为我们世界发展的主要特征。
1061	And to see them as just as important as revolutions, economic crises, and wars, and indeed, as often triggering or stymieing or determining the outcome of those other crises.	并且看到它们与革命、经济危机和战争一样重要,事实上,它们常常触发、阻碍或决定其他危机的结果。
1062	I'm not trying to be now a sort of disease determinist.	我不是想成为一种疾病决定者。
1063	I'm not trying to say that we can reduce disease, that is history, to understanding disease.	我不是想说我们可以减少疾病, 也就是历史,来理解疾病。
1064	What I'm saying is different.	我说的不一样
1065	It is that we can't understand history without including disease as a major feature of that process.	也就是说,如果不将疾病列为这一进程的一个主要特征,我们就无法理解历史。
1066	And a major part, it's not just history, it's also our future, that unless we include these diseases and how we think about that future, then we're going to have more calamities, such as we're living through in 2020, 2021.	一个重要部分,不仅仅是历史,也是我们的未来, 除非我们把这些疾病和我们如何思考未来, 那么我们将会有更多的灾难, 比如我们在2020年,2021年度过。
1067	And that is unnecessary, and we're not doomed to have that happen.	这是不必要的, 我们注定不会发生。
1068	Everything I'm saying is not meant to be a sense of doom.	我所说的一切都不是一种末日的感觉
1069	Oh, no, where the cataclysm is arriving.	哦,不,是灾难降临的地方
1070	No, I'm saying we have choices.	不我是说我们有选择
1071	That doesn't have to happen.	没必要这样
1072	We can take charge of these processes.	我们可以负责这些进程。
1073	We can be imaginative and innovative.	我们可以富有想象力和创新精神。
1074	Why the question, there's the sort of despairing question, part of the question, why hasn't this happened in the past?	为什么问题,有那种绝望的问题, 一部分问题, 为什么过去没有发生这种情况?
1075	I think part of it is the way history emerged as a discipline, which was I'm now thinking in the early modern and modern world.	我认为其中的一部分是历史作为一个学科的出现方式,我当时在现代和现代的早期思考.
1076	I'm not going back to Thucydides, who didn't have this problem, and his history of the Peloponnesian War is wonderful and is entirely naturalistic and could be written by a modern historian.	我不会回到Thucydides,他没有这个问题,他关于伯罗奔尼撒战争的历史是美妙的,完全是自然主义的,可以由现代历史学家写作.
1077	What I'm thinking about is, let us say, the reemergence of history, particularly in the 19th century, where it was considered lessons for the teaching of leaders.	我所想的是,让我们说,历史的重现,特别是在19世纪,它被认为是教导领导人的教训.
1078	And so it was about the moral instruction of how, and I'm afraid the leaders were almost always thought of as men.	所以这是关于如何的道德教导,我恐怕领导者们几乎总是被认为是男人。
1079	And so it was also quite misogynistic way of teaching history, how great men are made and produced, and what sort of moral choices they might have to make.	因此,它也是相当厌恶女性的教历史的方法, 伟大的人是如何创造和产生的, 以及他们可能做出什么样的道德选择。
1080	Also, because there was a kind of, I'm sorry to say, sense of certain activities that human beings engage in as being heroic and needing to be celebrated.	而且,因为有一种——我很遗憾地说—— 感觉人类从事的某些活动是英勇的,需要庆祝。
1081	And war was one of those.	战争就是其中之一
1082	And so there was something, I mean, it strikes me extraordinary, for example, that the person in the 19th century of all the people who's been most written about, more books have been written about Napoleon Bonaparte than any other person in the 19th cent	所以有件事,我意思是,它让我很惊讶, 例如,在19世纪的所有人中写得最多的人, 写的关于拿破仑·波拿巴的书比在19世纪的任何其他人都要多。
1083	And there is a kind of what he did, and I do write about this, so that's one reason I feel particularly engaged with the issue.	他做了一些事情,我确实写了这些, 所以这就是我特别关心这个问题的原因之一。
1084	Well, if Professor Deborah Davis doesn't mind, I'm curious as to whether you've tracked this through your sociological perspective and, you know, what your reflections are, comments are on the conversation with Professor Snowden so far.	如果Deborah Davis教授不介意的话我好奇你是否从社会学角度追踪到这个情况以及你的想法是关于与Snowden教授谈话的评论
1085	I wish we could just say that I'm back again, by the way.	顺便说一句,我希望我们能说我又回来了
1086	Oh, great.	哦,伟大的。
1087	Welcome back.	欢迎回来
1088	Thank you.	谢谢
1089	Great.	不错
1090	So we will we still have a couple questions, and let's see if we can try to get through a couple more.	所以,我们还有几个问题, 让我们看看,我们能不能再通过几个问题。
1091	Charlie here raises Rose's hand so that's my unmute him and have him ask the question directly.	查理在这里举起罗斯的手,所以这是我的解密,让他直接提问.
1092	Yes, sir.	是长官
1093	I can't say that I'm very knowledgeable but I'd like to ask you to compare the eradication of smallpox with how we how we plan to treat the coronavirus.	我不能说我很有知识但我想请你把消灭天花和我们如何治疗冠状病毒做比较
1094	I heard your question.	我听到你的问题了
1095	And that's a big one.	且道个甚么.
1096	And I'll try to answer as best I can.	我会尽力回答的
1097	A first thing is that with the polio virus, when the eradication program began, there was an understanding of what the vaccine was actually capable of doing, and how to deliver it around the world, and there was an organization created to do that.	首先,在脊髓灰质炎病毒方面,当根除计划开始的时候,人们已经知道疫苗实际上能做什么,如何在世界各地提供疫苗,为此建立了一个组织。
1098	And before a world work is vaccination campaign began, there had been national on a smaller scale, and polio happens, like smallpox that's smallpox in particular was an exception, because it was.	在世界工作开始接种疫苗运动之前, 曾有小规模的全国性疫苗, 脊髓灰质炎的发生, 就像天花,特别是天花是例外,因为它是例外。
1099	There is no natural reservoir animal reservoir for the smallpox vaccine.	天花疫苗没有天然水库动物库.
1100	So if you do eradicate it, then it really is gone, and it is so	所以,如果你真的消除它, 那么它真的消失了,它是如此
1101	It's not even fluorid in its symptoms, that it's easy to know where smallpox is.	它的症状甚至没有氟化,容易知道天花在哪里.
1102	And these features don't apply at the moment to the coronavirus.	这些特征目前并不适用于冕病毒.
1103	And I think we're very ill advised to use that word eradication at all to deal with it.	我认为我们很不明智地建议用这个词来对付它。
1104	We have no justifiable scientific reason for thinking that we're capable at this point of eradicating the coronavirus.	我们没有任何合理的科学理由认为我们有能力消除冕病毒。
1105	There is a very huge animal reservoir of the coronavirus.	冕病毒的动物库非常庞大
1106	It has every possibility of reemerging in that way, even if we do successfully contain it, and I think we need to be careful about how we teach the public about what this vaccine can and can't do.	它完全有可能以这种方式再现, 即使我们成功地控制了它, 我认为我们需要小心地如何教育公众了解这种疫苗能做什么和不能做什么。
1107	There was a beautiful metaphor that Michael Ryan, one of the directors of the WHO used, and he said, one of the things we don't want to do is to teach that the vaccine is like a magic unicorn that with one horn can solve every problem.	有个美丽的比喻,世界卫生组织的一位主任迈克尔·瑞安(Michael Ryan)使用了这个比喻,他说,我们不想做的事情之一是教导疫苗就像一只神奇的独角兽,用一个角就能解决每一个问题.
1108	He said, in fact, the way to understand it is that it's one tool in a toolbox, and that in order to contain and get on top of this pandemic, we'll need to continue practicing other tools of public health and washing social distancing and all the rest of i	他说,事实上,理解的方法是它是一个工具箱中的一个工具, 为了遏制并战胜这个流行病, 我们需要继续练习其他的公共卫生工具, 洗涤社会隔阂, 并在未来相当长的时间内。
1109	And we don't know, for example, just to give some reservations about the vaccine.	我们不知道,比如说,只是给疫苗一些保留。
1110	I'm a great fan of the vaccine, by the way.	顺便说一句,我是疫苗的忠实粉丝
1111	This is one of the silver linings of the pandemic, an extraordinary scientific achievement, partly done through international cooperation and the sharing of the genome.	这是该流行病的辉煌一线,是一项非凡的科学成就,部分是通过国际合作和基因组共享实现的。
1112	So it's a wonderful thing to have this vaccine.	因此,拥有这种疫苗是一件美妙的事情。
1113	I'm glad and I hope it's rolled out quickly.	我很高兴,我希望它能很快推出。
1114	But what worries me is the so often one sees presented in the media, the idea that this is the end of it.	但我担心的是人们经常看到媒体的报导,
1115	We have the vaccine, it's over, and we don't, we have a technological quick fix, whereas what we have is an extraordinarily deep societal problem, societal, economic, environmental, and that needs to be addressed and addressed in very innovative and imagi	我们有疫苗,它结束了,我们没有, 我们有一个技术的快速解决方案, 而我们所拥有的是一个非常深层的社会问题, 社会,经济,环境, 这需要用非常创新和富有想象力的方式处理。
1116	And we'll be very misguided if we rely only on the vaccine, particularly when we don't actually know exactly what we're getting.	如果我们只依赖疫苗,我们就会被误导, 特别是当我们实际上不知道我们得到了什么。
1117	We don't know whether the immunity that it provides will be long lasting, or will it be only partial?	我们不知道它提供的豁免是长久的还是局部的?
1118	And what's happened is that we know that certain people, when they've been recovered from COVID-19, a certain number of people, nobody knows how many have, but there are some who've been reinfected with COVID-19.	我们知道,当某些人从COVID-19中恢复后, 一定数量的人,没有人知道有多少人, 但有些人再次感染了COVID-19。
1119	In other words, their immunity waned.	换句话说,他们的豁免权已经消失。
1120	And so someone like me, I would never say that because I had COVID-19, I'm immune to it.	所以像我这样的人, 我永远不会说, 因为我有COVID-19, 我对此免疫。
1121	I have no way to know that.	我无法知道这一点。
1122	There's no scientific data to demonstrate that to anyone.	没有科学数据可以证明给任何人。
1123	And similarly, when vaccine efficacy is brought into view, it's not entirely, it's not the same thing as talking about its immunogenicity.	类似地,当疫苗功效被呈现出来时,它并不完全,它和谈论它的免疫性不一样.
1124	In other words, we know that it's effective, but effective of dealing with what?	换句话说,我们知道处理什么是有效的,但是是有效的?
1125	With someone with a mild case, a severe case, a child, a very frail elderly person, we don't know whether the vaccine, because they naturally wouldn't expect that when you have volunteers for testing, you don't pick small school children.	和一个有轻度病例,严重病例, 一个孩子,一个非常虚弱的老人, 我们不知道疫苗是否有效, 因为他们自然不会期望当你有志愿者进行测试, 你不会选择小学校的孩子。
1126	And you don't go into nursing homes and ask them to be the volunteer and this scientific experiment.	你不进入养老院,要求他们做志愿者和这个科学实验.
1127	The result is that there aren't the data yet.	结果是还没有数据。
1128	And so I think we mustn't make too many leaps of imagination.	所以,我认为我们不能做太多的想象。
1129	And we're all so desperate to emerge from this dark period in which we're living.	我们都非常渴望从我们生活的黑暗时期中脱身。
1130	That's human nature.	这就是人性。
1131	We all feel that way, but we're not doing ourselves a favor by blinding our eyes and closing them to the reality and not continuing to ask the questions about how did we get here?	我们都这样认为,但是我们不是在帮自己一个忙,就是把眼睛蒙在眼里,闭着眼睛去面对现实,而不是继续问我们是如何来到这里的?
1132	And how can we get out of this?	我们怎样才能摆脱这一切?
1133	And what do we really need to do and make use of this wonderful new tool, but don't think of it as a panacea.	我们真正需要做什么, 利用这个奇妙的新工具, 但不要把它看作是灵丹妙药。
1134	And I think we're a long, long way from ever talking about eradicating COVID-19.	我认为我们距离根除COVID-19还有很长的路要走。
1135	Yes, that's a great warning that we're still in it for a while.	是的,这是一个伟大的警告我们仍在其中一段时间。
1136	And so it's not time to let up yet.	所以现在还不是放弃的时候
1137	Maybe another question or two and then we'll wrap up.	也许再问一两个问题然后我们结束
1138	Steven up to grow here asks, building on your analogy of the Caribbean and hurricanes, for decades Cuba suffered few, if any, deaths from hurricanes because evacuation orders were strictly obeyed and forced, while elsewhere, including the US, significant	数十年来,古巴很少因飓风而遇难, 因为疏散命令得到严格遵守和强制, 而其他地方, 包括美国在内,
1139	So it seems that it's inevitable that there is a price for more democratic societies to pay in terms of natural disasters like storms and epidemics for the freedoms that they otherwise so value.	因此,似乎不可避免的是,在自然灾害方面,更民主的社会必须付出代价,比如暴风雨和流行病,以换取它们如此珍视的自由。
1140	Would you agree with an assessment like that?	你同意这样的评估吗?
1141	I would agree with what was just said about Cuba and its preparation.	我同意刚才关于古巴及其筹备工作的说法。
1142	And that's another country, not only with regard to hurricanes, but also with COVID-19.	那是另一个国家, 不仅针对飓风, 而且与COVID-19。
1143	So that I'm in total agreement with half of the of the statement.	因此我完全同意发言的一半内容。
1144	The other half, however, I'm unable to agree with at all.	但另一半我完全无法同意
1145	I don't think that autocracies are better able to deal with medical crises and preparation that democracies.	我不认为专制主义更能应付医疗危机,为民主国家做好准备.
1146	In fact, I rather think the opposite.	事实上,我宁愿认为恰恰相反。
1147	And we have a number of democratic countries that have dealt very well with COVID-19 and I was talking about New Zealand is a good example.	我们有一些民主国家对COVID-19处理得很好,我当时谈到新西兰是一个很好的例子。
1148	Similarly, I talked about Senegal and even, well, let's, I won't talk about the democracy of Rwanda, particularly, but clearly, South Korea is an example.	同样,我谈到了塞内加尔,甚至,嗯,让我们说,我不会谈论卢旺达的民主,特别是,但显然,南朝鲜就是一个例子。
1149	And it's not the case that autocracies have, and I don't think, for example, if one talked about what's happening in a semiocad autocracy like Brazil as a good response, and I don't think that the Russian handling of this emergency has been something that	而不是专制的,我也不认为,比如说,如果有人谈到像巴西这样的半腐败的专制政体正在发生什么,作为很好的对策,我不认为俄罗斯对这个紧急情况的处理是我们真正想要模仿的东西。
1150	Hungary, which has now used the epidemic as an excuse for a grab of power and to create a more autocratic regime and has not dealt well at all with COVID-19.	匈牙利现在利用这一流行病作为夺权和建立更专制的政权的借口,对COVID-19根本没有很好的处理.
1151	So no, I don't think that the evidence suggests that autocracies have some magic way of dealing with these.	所以不,我不认为证据表明专制有一些神奇的方法处理这些。
1152	And in fact, these crises, and in fact, the evidence would seem to me to suggest that what you need is to mobilize innovation, cooperation, collaboration in order to fight these pandemics.	事实上,这些危机,而且事实上,在我看来,证据似乎表明,你需要的是调动创新、合作和协作,以便防治这些流行病。
1153	So I'm a great believer in solidarity, and that is a democratic process.	所以我非常相信团结, 这是一个民主的过程。
1154	And I would also say I'm a believer in science, and I think science is one of the most democratic of human endeavors, because it means that what you do, you are not claiming your authority for its truth, any assertion you make.	我还想说,我是一个科学的信徒, 我认为科学是人类最民主的努力之一, 因为它意味着你所做的一切, 你并不是在要求你的权威来证明它的真实性, 你所做的任何断言。
1155	You're claiming that anyone else who follows the same steps that I've taken will come up with the same result, has nothing to do with me, and they're free to follow it and test it.	你声称,任何其他遵循我所采取相同步骤的人,都会得出同样的结果,和我毫无关系,他们可以自由地遵循并测试.
1156	And that's how scientific advance occurs.	科学进步就是这样发生的。
1157	And an autocratic regime inserts contingency and personality and cult of personality and is usually incompatible with the appliance of real scientific principles.	而专制政权则插入了应急和人格以及人格崇拜,通常与真实科学原则的应用不相容.
1158	So I think our hope lies more in mobilizing people and to collaborate and to innovate and to think together.	因此,我认为,我们的希望更多在于动员人们、合作、创新和共同思考。
1159	Fantastic.	厉害
1160	And I think that transitions into the last question that I think I'll ask, which is a little more forward looking, which is I think one of the things that I was fascinated about throughout this conversation and, you know, having looked at your course agai	我认为,这向最后一个问题过渡, 我想我要问,这是一个更向前看的问题, 我认为我在这段谈话中一直很着迷的事情之一, 并且,你知道,在重新审视了你的路线之后, 传染病在发病率,死亡率方面有直接的影响, 甚至是经济影响。
1161	But often what we overlook is the long-term impact of epidemics, and that's seen through intellectual, social, artistic, you know, other realms.	但是,我们经常忽略流行病的长期影响, 从知识、社会、艺术,你知道的,从其他领域来看。
1162	And so I guess the question now is having gone through COVID-19 and still going through COVID-19, what are the potential long-lasting, long-term consequences that you see from COVID-19 in regards to maybe infrastructure, city planning, health care systems	所以,我想现在的问题是, COVID-19 和 COVID-19, 潜在的长期,长期的后果是什么, 你从COVID-19 看到的,在可能基础设施, 城市规划,卫生保健系统, 我们如何思考工作,教育价值, 我们如何思考全球化。
1163	I mean, what are the like bigger picture consequences of this pandemic outside of just the deaths and the economic toll, which obviously is great.	我的意思是,除了死亡和经济损失之外,这种流行病的更大后果是什么,这显然是巨大的。
1164	How many days do I have to answer?	我还要回答多少天?
1165	No, that's a beautiful question.	不,这是一个美丽的问题。
1166	And it is, however, let's recognize an enormous one.	然而,让我们承认一个巨大的。
1167	And it also means that I'm going to have to take off my hat as a historian a bit and get out my tea leaves and crystal ball and try to look into the future.	这也意味着我必须把历史学家的帽子摘下来, 拿出我的茶叶和水晶球,试着展望未来。
1168	But I made the mistake that we all historians don't want people to ask.	但我犯了一个错误,我们所有的历史学家都不希望人们问.
1169	No, no, but it's fair.	不,不,但这是公平的。
1170	I have to think, you know, as a citizen like everyone else.	我必须想,你知道,作为一个公民像其他人一样。
1171	And so let me answer on that basis.	因此,让我在此基础上回答。
1172	This is not me as a historian, it's me as a citizen who's worried about these problems.	这不是我作为一个历史学家, 是我作为一个公民担心这些问题。
1173	And in that guise, I would certainly say that let's look at some of the things that are actually happening already and around so that we have actual reasons to think that this really may happen.	在这个伪装中,我肯定要说, 让我们看看一些已经和周围发生的事情, 这样我们才有实际的理由认为这真的可能发生。
1174	And one I've talked about a silver lining being the way in which these epidemics often elicit enormous innovation and new ideas.	(笑声) 我曾经谈到过一个光明之旅, 就是这些流行病经常引发巨大创新和新想法的方式。
1175	And we've seen this in the development of the vaccine.	我们在疫苗的研发中看到了这一点。
1176	And that's one example, clearly, in the genome being so rapidly decoded.	这是一个例子,显然,在基因组中, 被如此迅速地解码。
1177	What I wanted to add is that now we're also seeing the emergence of the reimagining of cities and the life that goes on in them and actual real places.	我想补充的是,现在我们也看到了城市的重新构思的出现, 以及城市和现实中的生活。
1178	There is a movement called the 15 minute city, which is now being thought about in Milan, in Madrid, in Buenos Aires, and Paris, and even in London.	目前米兰,马德里,布宜诺斯艾利斯,巴黎,甚至伦敦都在考虑这个运动。
1179	And the idea is that in order to make, not to rely only on a vaccine, but to realize that something more fundamental is happening here, and that we need to reform the way in which we live our lives in cities.	这个想法是,为了制造疫苗, 不仅要依靠疫苗, 而且要认识到,这里正在发生一些更根本性的事情, 我们需要改革我们在城市生活的方式。
1180	Cities are one of the, if I could say a super spreader, features of a pandemic like this, and therefore cities need to be made safer.	城市是这种流行病的特征之一, 如果我可以说是超级传播者的话, 因此城市需要变得更安全。
1181	And the idea of the 15 minute city is that urban planners are thinking about ways in which to make cities decentralized so that people who live in them within a 15 minute walk of where they live will find everything they need.	15分钟的城市的想法是, 城市规划者们正在思考如何使城市分散化, 以便那些生活在城市里的人在他们居住的地方的15分钟里, 找到他们需要的一切。
1182	Not that they'll ever be forbidden to go wherever they like, but within a 15 minute radius, so they won't have to get into a car, won't have to go on a crowded bus or subway, they'll be able to find work, shopping, recreation, cultural activities, exercis	并非永远禁止他们去任何他们喜欢的地方,而是在15分钟的半径内,这样他们就不用上车,不用坐拥挤的公交车或地铁,就能找到工作,购物,娱乐,文化活动,锻炼,绿草.
1183	All of that should be available to every inhabitant of a city within 15 minutes, and that's leading to ideas that with the cities, part of the problem, of course, is the automobile.	所有这一切都应该在15分钟内提供给一个城市的每个居民, 这导致了一些想法, 城市,当然,问题的一部分是汽车。
1184	And think of the, and the, the environmental greenhouse gases that are generated by asphalt, to which such huge parts of 50% of many city centers are given over to asphalt streets, driveways, roofs of buildings and all the rest of it.	想想沥青产生的环境温室气体 50%的市政中心都交给沥青街道、车道、建筑屋顶和其余部分
1185	And that's generating enormous greenhouse gases, in fact, more than the emissions of the automobile.	这会产生巨大的温室气体, 事实上,比汽车的排放还多。
1186	And so that needs to be rethought.	所以这需要重新思考。
1187	And these cities are thinking about really sort of exiling from the center, the automobile entirely, and creating broad spaces where people can practice social distancing, where they can socialize	这些城市正考虑着真正从中心,汽车中排出, 并创造广阔的空间人们可以练习社会距离,
1188	outdoors, where there can be cultural activities outdoors, where they can pass each other in the street without bumping into each other, that all of these things can be, and they can lead their lives without generating lots of greenhouse gas, that's going	户外,户外可以开展文化活动,在街上可以互通互通,不相撞,所有这些东西都可以,可以不产生大量温室气体而过自己的生活,这将会回到
1189	And lots of health and other related ways.	还有很多健康和其他相关的方法。
1190	And so urban city planning and reimagining cities is something that's really going on right now.	因此,城市规划和重新构思城市是真正正在发生的事情。
1191	And some of the really creative minds in Europe and lots of different countries are actually rethinking cities and how do we live in them.	而欧洲的一些真正有创造力的头脑和许多不同的国家正在重新思考城市,以及我们如何生活在城市里。
1192	And that has huge implications for work.	这对工作有很大的影响。
1193	How do we work?	我们怎么工作?
1194	How do we find recreation?	我们如何找到娱乐?
1195	How do we play?	我们怎么玩?
1196	How do we exercise?	我们怎么锻炼?
1197	How do we go to school?	我们怎么上学?
1198	All of those things are being, there's a lot of churning going on around the world in people's minds.	所有这些事情都是在, 世界上有很多的热闹在人们的脑海里。
1199	So unlike the question about an autocracy, I would say if anyone comes to you and says, I have a blueprint from the future, I think I would say to you to run as far and fast from that person as you can, and that what needs to happen is to bring human inno	因此,与关于一个专制主义的问题不同,我要说,如果有人来找你,说,我有一个未来的蓝图,我想我要对你说,尽可能快地离开那个人,而需要发生的是把人类的创新结合起来,从下到上地开始,并让它渗透。
1200	And that that's what will perhaps enable us really to have the most new ideas, the most and also the most broadest acceptance of the ideas that emerge.	而这或许能让我们真正拥有最新的想法, 以及最广泛地接受所出现的想法。
1201	And I think that conversations like this are part of that process.	我认为这种对话是这一进程的一部分。
1202	And I hope that lots of them will be will be going on around all around the world.	我希望他们中的很多人将在世界各地展开。
1203	So that's another thing that I hope will happen.	所以这是另一件事我希望会发生。
1204	Wonderful.	真不错
1205	Well, thank you so much for a fascinating, fascinating talk.	嗯,非常感谢你的迷人,迷人的谈话。
1206	You know, I'm sure everybody's already clapping.	你知道,我敢肯定,每个人都已经在鼓掌。
1207	I haven't even asked everybody to clap yet.	我还没叫大家鼓掌呢
1208	So thank you so much for taking the time to do this.	所以,非常感谢你花时间这样做。
1209	And thank you everybody for staying on and asking such great questions.	谢谢大家留下来问这么多问题
1210	I'm actually going to unmute everybody so that you guys can thank Professor Snowden personally.	我要揭开每个人的嘴这样你们就可以亲自感谢斯诺登教授了
1211	Thank you extremely much.	非常感谢
1212	And I've really loved the questions and the chance to talk with you.	我很喜欢问你的问题还有和你谈谈的机会
1213	And as I've said, I'm really committed to this.	正如我所说,我确实致力于这项工作。
1214	I think everyone we all need to put our heads together.	我认为每个人都需要把我们的头放在一起。
1215	That's the solution.	这就是解决办法。
1216	It's not a magic bullet.	这不是一个神奇的子弹。

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