耶鲁管理学院公开课：谁将抢占制高点？耶鲁管理学院教授解码大国
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | Good morning, good afternoon, good evening. | 早安,下午好,晚上好,谢谢 |
| 0:06 | Logan, it's Halloween. | 罗根 今天是万圣节 |
| 0:10 | Are your kids gonna get dressed up and go trick or treating? | 你的孩子会穿好衣服去耍花招还是治疗? |
| 0:13 | We are. | 我们是。 |
| 0:14 | They're very excited. | 他们很兴奋。 |
| 0:15 | They barely slept last night | 他们昨晚都睡不着 |
| 0:16 | and subsequently we didn't either. | 后来我们也没有 |
| 0:18 | So it's Halloween, very exciting in the United States. | 今天是万圣节,在美国很刺激 |
| 0:21 | So it should be a fun day. | 所以今天应该很有趣 |
| 0:23 | Excited about today's session. | 对今天的会议感到兴奋。 |
展开字幕全文（1128 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Good morning, good afternoon, good evening. | 早安,下午好,晚上好,谢谢 |
| 2 | Logan, it's Halloween. | 罗根 今天是万圣节 |
| 3 | Are your kids gonna get dressed up and go trick or treating? | 你的孩子会穿好衣服去耍花招还是治疗? |
| 4 | We are. | 我们是。 |
| 5 | They're very excited. | 他们很兴奋。 |
| 6 | They barely slept last night | 他们昨晚都睡不着 |
| 7 | and subsequently we didn't either. | 后来我们也没有 |
| 8 | So it's Halloween, very exciting in the United States. | 今天是万圣节,在美国很刺激 |
| 9 | So it should be a fun day. | 所以今天应该很有趣 |
| 10 | Excited about today's session. | 对今天的会议感到兴奋。 |
| 11 | Thank you all for joining. | 谢谢大家加入 |
| 12 | Thank you, Ted. | 谢谢你,泰德。 |
| 13 | Thank you, Carol, for hosting us | 谢谢你 卡罗尔 接待我们 |
| 14 | and thank you, Jacob, for your efforts in Beijing | 雅各布,谢谢你在北京的努力 |
| 15 | to help this effort forward. | 帮助推动这一努力。 |
| 16 | Let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
| 17 | One thing I wanted to do was, if I could, show this. | 我想做的一件事是,如果我可以, 展示这个。 |
| 18 | And Carol Lee Rafferty mentioned | 卡罗尔·李·拉弗蒂提到 |
| 19 | that this is the hot topic, | 这是热门话题, |
| 20 | the competition between China and the US. | 中国和美国的竞争。 |
| 21 | And some people put it in terms of | 有些人说, |
| 22 | conflict over the trade war. | 冲突与贸易战争。 |
| 23 | I think, you know, it's probably broader. | 我想,你知道, 它可能更宽。 |
| 24 | But what's interesting about this Economist article | 但《经济学家》这篇文章有什么意义 |
| 25 | is they're making a case | 他们正在立案 |
| 26 | that with respect to the trade war, | 关于贸易战争, |
| 27 | China's doing better. | 中国表现较好. |
| 28 | And then as Carol mentioned, | 然后,正如卡罗尔提到, |
| 29 | this is the topic around the world, APEC, | 这是世界各地的话题,亚太经合组织, |
| 30 | DC, Europe, Trump's visits to Asian countries. | DC 欧洲 特朗普访问亚洲国家. |
| 31 | So we feel like we're right in line with the big issues. | 因此,我们觉得我们与大问题是一致的。 |
| 32 | Maybe even too much in line | 说不定排队也太多了 |
| 33 | because when we announced this topic last time, | 因为上次我们宣布这个话题时 |
| 34 | it just seemed like it was the right thing to do. | 这似乎是正确的事情。 |
| 35 | But now that everybody else is commenting on it, | 但现在所有人都在评论它, |
| 36 | what we tried to figure out is, | 我们想弄清楚的是, |
| 37 | well, what insights do we have | 我们有什么见解 |
| 38 | that are maybe missing from other analyses? | 其他分析中可能遗漏的? |
| 39 | So that's a little bit of framing. | 这么说来,这是个小框架。 |
| 40 | Jacob, maybe you could put up the slide deck. | 雅各布,也许你可以把滑板。 |
| 41 | Yeah, let me just welcome officially everybody | 是的,让我正式欢迎大家 |
| 42 | to our fourth session. | 我们的第四届会议。 |
| 43 | It's been, I can't believe it's been free now. | 它已经,我不敢相信它已经免费了。 |
| 44 | And today we'll talk about national strategies | 今天我们来谈谈国家战略 |
| 45 | for high-tech industries. | 用于高科技产业. |
| 46 | There'll be a lot about AI, about semiconductors. | 将有很多关于AI,半导体. |
| 47 | So Ted, as you're asked, here we go. | 所以,泰德,你问,我们走了。 |
| 48 | Yeah, so here we are, fourth webinar, | 是的,所以我们在这里,第四 Webinar, |
| 49 | cumulative audience, somewhere between 2,500 and 3,000. | 累计观众,约2500到3000人左右. |
| 50 | So we're very happy. | 所以我们很快乐 |
| 51 | One question I had for you, Jacob, | 我问你一个问题 Jacob |
| 52 | as people wanna give us feedback, | 因为人们想给我们反馈 |
| 53 | what is the best mechanism for doing so? | 这样做的最佳机制是什么? |
| 54 | It's either through YCB or we have an email | 要么通过YCB 要么我们有邮件 |
| 55 | that I will share in the chat in a few moments | 我一会儿再聊 |
| 56 | that you can write and we will read everything. | 你可以写,我们会读的一切。 |
| 57 | Good, all right, so next slide. | 好,好,下一张 |
| 58 | So here we are, Logan and Ted. | 我们到了,洛根和泰德 |
| 59 | And with respect to feedback, | 关于反馈, |
| 60 | when we provided the deep dive | 当我们提供深潜 |
| 61 | into the semiconductor industry last time, | 上次进入半导体工业, |
| 62 | these were the questions that we tried to answer. | 这些是我们试图回答的问题。 |
| 63 | And that was the thing that led, | 这就是导致的事情, |
| 64 | a lot of people commented and said, | 很多人评论说, |
| 65 | well, you gotta look at the strategies | 好吧,你得看看这些策略 |
| 66 | with respect to that industry | 关于该行业 |
| 67 | and the broader rivalry between China and the US. | 以及中美之间更广泛的竞争。 |
| 68 | So what should people do when they encounter these arguments | 所以,当人们遇到这些争论时,应该怎么做? |
| 69 | around what each country is doing? | 每个国家在做什么? |
| 70 | So those were the six questions. | 这就是六个问题。 |
| 71 | It turns out that three of the six, | 结果发现六人中有三个 |
| 72 | I think carry over to today. | 我想今天可以继续了 |
| 73 | And our view is, pardon me, | 我们的观点是,原谅我, |
| 74 | our view is that the semiconductor industry has become, | 我们认为半导体工业已经 |
| 75 | in terms of industry, | 在工业方面, |
| 76 | is probably the most important industry globally. | 可能是全球最重要的工业。 |
| 77 | And that as a result puts that industry | 从而使得这个行业 |
| 78 | in the center of the strategies for China and the US. | 成为中美战略的中心 |
| 79 | And so we covered last time demand, the supply chain, | 所以,我们覆盖了上次的需求, 供应链, |
| 80 | and really interesting question about which firms | 和真正有趣的问题 关于哪些公司 |
| 81 | capture the most value from the progress | 从进度中获取最大值 |
| 82 | with respect to semiconductors. | 关于半导体。 |
| 83 | So with that, I think we should do an update | 因此,我认为我们应该做一个更新 |
| 84 | because things are moving so fast. | 因为事情进展得太快 |
| 85 | So Logan, over to you. | 洛根,交给你了 |
| 86 | Thank you, Ted, and thank you, team. | 谢谢你,泰德,谢谢你,团队。 |
| 87 | So we'll discuss the G2 and unpack some strategic positions | 我们讨论一下G2 整理一些战略位置 |
| 88 | that they've taken amidst, and as Ted said, | 正如泰德所说 |
| 89 | there's a lot of noise in the signal. | 信号中有很多噪音. |
| 90 | There's a lot of clickbait type of headlines, | 有很多的点击bit类型头条, |
| 91 | but let's just frame the opportunity | 但让我们只是设定机会 |
| 92 | that's before all of us in the AI boom | 在人工智能的热潮之前 |
| 93 | and parse out some key pillars a little bit. | 分析一下一些关键支柱 |
| 94 | The first stop I wanna hit on is what's happening | 我第一站想接听的是发生了什么 |
| 95 | with the capital deployment or CapEx. | 在首都部署或CapEx。 |
| 96 | Ted and I have been tracking CapEx spend | Ted和我一直在追踪CapEx的开支 |
| 97 | with leading tech firms in relation | 与主要技术公司的关系 |
| 98 | to how much they're spending on semiconductors | 他们花在半导体上多少钱 |
| 99 | via data center build-outs, via GPUs. | 通过数据中心的建设,通过GPU. |
| 100 | We quote Wall Street Journal, other news sources, | 我们引用《华尔街日报》 其他新闻来源 |
| 101 | industry analysis, our contacts in industry, et cetera. | 工业分析,我们在工业中的联系人等等。 |
| 102 | I'm gonna be mostly quoting Wall Street Journal | 我将主要引用华尔街日报 |
| 103 | just because a lot of people have a subscription. | 只是因为很多人有订阅。 |
| 104 | They can go and read it and follow up on this. | 他们可以去读它 并跟进这一点。 |
| 105 | What we've observed is in 2024, | 我们观测到的是2024年 |
| 106 | the spend really started to accelerate. | 开支真的开始加速。 |
| 107 | And these are by no means small sums of money. | 这些绝不是小钱。 |
| 108 | You're talking about tens of billions of dollars per quarter | 你是指每个季度数百亿美元 |
| 109 | for each of the leading tech firms. | 各大技术公司。 |
| 110 | Most of that's related to data center build | 大部分与数据中心的建设有关 |
| 111 | or scale-out involving GPUs, | 或涉及GPU的推广, |
| 112 | GPUs being the linchpin of everything. | GPU是一切的关键 |
| 113 | What's that all for? | 这都是为了什么? |
| 114 | Normally when you see a large capital outlay, | 通常当你看到一个大资本支出, |
| 115 | it's risky for an operating team or a management team | 对操作团队或管理团队来说风险很大 |
| 116 | to do this because they're essentially | 这样做,因为他们本质上是 |
| 117 | putting their jobs at risk by saying, | 让他们的工作面临危险,说: |
| 118 | we're gonna deploy all this money into data center GPU | 我们要把这些钱都放进数据中心GPU |
| 119 | and they don't know if it's going to work out. | 而且他们不知道这会不会成功 |
| 120 | They don't know if the revenues ultimately will reflect | 他们不知道收入是否最终会反映 |
| 121 | in what they're spending, pay it off, et cetera, | 在他们花费,支付它,等等, |
| 122 | which shows you how much one possible promise | 说明你有多少可能的承诺 |
| 123 | and potential the AI boom has, | 和潜在的AI繁荣, |
| 124 | but also it's grown into such a large sum of money | 但也长成这么大一笔钱 |
| 125 | that you can no longer ignore it. | 你不能再无视它。 |
| 126 | And so governments and countries are getting involved | 政府和各国也开始参与其中 |
| 127 | and they're noticing these trends | 他们注意到这些趋势 |
| 128 | and we have not seen it stop. | 我们没有看到它停止。 |
| 129 | In fact, we've seen it accelerate into 2025 | 事实上,我们已经看到它加速到2025年 |
| 130 | and now it's well over 400. | 现在已经超过400人了 |
| 131 | We're just quoting the top seven spenders | 我们只是引用了前七名 |
| 132 | that are US listed. | 美国名单。 |
| 133 | Just those firms alone comprise over $400 billion of CapEx | 光是这些公司 就有4000多亿美元CapEx |
| 134 | just in 2025 alone. | 仅在2025年, |
| 135 | And analysts expect it to accelerate even further into 2026. | 而分析家们预计它会进一步加速到2026年. |
| 136 | Hey Logan, could you maybe comment on Microsoft | 嘿,洛根,你能评论一下微软吗? |
| 137 | as an example? | 举个例子? |
| 138 | Do you have any thoughts? | 你有什么想法吗? |
| 139 | Microsoft has an example, yeah. | 微软有一个例子,是的。 |
| 140 | So they've had a large increase. | 因此,他们已经有了很大的增长。 |
| 141 | So their cloud Azure is what their cloud name is, | 因此,他们的云阿祖尔是他们的云名称, |
| 142 | their cloud services. | 他们的云服务。 |
| 143 | They've had a double digit growth. | 他们有两位数的增长。 |
| 144 | They've enjoyed quite a bit of growth. | 他们享受了相当的成长。 |
| 145 | They've also invested in the private ecosystem | 他们还投资了私人生态系统 |
| 146 | with their investments in open AI. | 在公开AI的投资。 |
| 147 | That's old news, but how is it going is the idea. | 这是老消息,但这是怎么一回事。 |
| 148 | And so when these firms deploy literally hundreds | 所以,当这些公司部署 实实在在的数百 |
| 149 | of billions of dollars of capital, | 10亿美元资本, |
| 150 | is it going to pay off? | 它会回报吗? |
| 151 | We've also tracked a firm like Amazon, for example, | 我们还跟踪了亚马逊这样的公司 比如说, |
| 152 | with their AWS ecosystem, phenomenal ecosystem. | 与他们的AWS生态系统, 惊人的生态系统。 |
| 153 | A lot of companies, both public and private use AWS. | 许多公私公司都使用AWS. |
| 154 | They were one of the first to achieve | 他们是第一个实现 |
| 155 | that kind of $10 billion milestone | 那种100亿美元的里程碑 |
| 156 | in terms of revenues reflected. | 就收入而言。 |
| 157 | And so we just want to set up for the audience | 所以,我们只是想 设置观众 |
| 158 | how much capital is being deployed | 已部署多少资本 |
| 159 | just towards this initiative, | 就是为了这个倡议, |
| 160 | this growth initiative globally. | 全球增长倡议。 |
| 161 | It's phenomenal. | 这是惊人的。 |
| 162 | And at the center- Obviously, Logan, | 很明显,洛根 |
| 163 | this is the top US companies. | 这是顶尖的美国公司。 |
| 164 | What do we know about China? | 我们对中国了解多少? |
| 165 | Is it opaque? | 不透明吗? |
| 166 | Can we really track the funding from VC, | 我们真的能追踪到来自VC的资金吗? |
| 167 | some of which are government sponsored? | 有些是政府赞助的? |
| 168 | And yeah, that's right. | 没错 |
| 169 | So you can look at filings, the ADR listed. | 这样你就可以看档案, 发展成果评估列表。 |
| 170 | So Alibaba has a fantastic cloud business. | 因此,阿里巴巴有一个神奇的云层生意。 |
| 171 | Tencent has cloud, Baidu has cloud. | 腾讯有云,百度有云. |
| 172 | They've invested in that, | 他们已经投资了, |
| 173 | not at the scale that the US in aggregate has. | 不像美国那样大 |
| 174 | So there's some data out there | 所以,有一些数据在那里 |
| 175 | you can pull from public filings | 你可以从公共档案中提取 |
| 176 | In terms of the VC ecosystem, | 在《维也纳公约》生态系统方面, |
| 177 | it seems to be gathering more investment | 似乎吸引了更多的投资 |
| 178 | than it has historically, | 与历史相比, |
| 179 | specifically towards AI initiatives. | 具体针对大赦国际的倡议。 |
| 180 | So there's definitely money going around in China as well. | 所以中国肯定也有钱 |
| 181 | At the center of all of these spending decisions are GPUs, | 所有这些支出决定的核心是GPU, |
| 182 | so parallel processors. | 如此平行的处理器。 |
| 183 | And that has placed Nvidia on a growth curve | 这使得恩维迪亚走上了增长曲线 |
| 184 | like something that we've never seen. | 像我们从未见过的一样 |
| 185 | Jacob, if you please go to the next slide. | 雅各,请到下一张幻灯片。 |
| 186 | 所以,Nvidia最近,本周, | |
| 187 | eclipsed the $5 trillion value mark, | 吞噬了5万亿美元的价值, |
| 188 | which is evaluation of a publicly traded business | 评估一个公开交易的企业 |
| 189 | on the US exchange that's never been witnessed before. | 美国的交换 从来没有见过。 |
| 190 | And we're gonna put that in perspective in a minute | 我们一会再把话说清楚 |
| 191 | about what 5 trillion really looks like | 关于5万亿的真面目 |
| 192 | in reference to other benchmarks. | 参照其他基准。 |
| 193 | But we'll also- | 但我们也会... |
| 194 | Just a quick comment, Logan. | 简言之,洛根 |
| 195 | I'm sorry to interrupt. | 抱歉打断你 |
| 196 | Yeah, of course. | 当然 |
| 197 | What I find interesting is that | 我发现有趣的是 |
| 198 | this rise in Nvidia's market cap | Nvidia的市场封顶的上升 |
| 199 | comes at a time when others | 当别人来的时候 |
| 200 | are also getting big increases in market cap. | 市场上限也在大幅上升。 |
| 201 | I mean, AMD in 2014 was in such financial trouble | 我的意思是,2014年的AMD 陷入了这样的财政困境 |
| 202 | and now led by Lisa Su. | 现在由丽莎·苏领导 |
| 203 | I mean, it's rocketing up there | 我的意思是,它的火箭在那里 |
| 204 | and in large part because it's becoming | 很大程度上是因为它变得 |
| 205 | a more effective competitor to Nvidia. | 与Nvidia的更有效的竞争者。 |
| 206 | And the same may be true for other US companies like Qualcomm. | 而其他美国公司,如Qualcomm, 也一样。 |
| 207 | So despite the emergence of important competitors | 所以尽管出现了重要的竞争对手 |
| 208 | 到Nvidia的前沿,Nvidia正在上升。 | |
| 209 | So we're not close to, I think, the peak | 所以我们没有接近,我想,高峰 |
| 210 | in demand and supply responses | 供求对策 |
| 211 | with respect to these high-end GPUs. | 关于这些高端GPU. |
| 212 | Well said. | 说得好 |
| 213 | And Lisa's done a great job turning AMD around. | 丽莎做了一个伟大的工作 扭转AMD。 |
| 214 | I started covering AMD as a Semi's analyst in 2015 | 2015年开始作为Semi的分析师 报道AMD |
| 215 | when it was $2 a share. | 当它2美元一股。 |
| 216 | So I remember those days well, | 所以我记得那些日子 |
| 217 | and Lisa runs a great unit. | 和丽莎经营一个伟大的单位。 |
| 218 | And so will we see Nvidia become a $10 trillion company? | 那么,我们将看到Nvidia 成为一个10万亿的公司? |
| 219 | That's an interesting question. | 这是一个有趣的问题。 |
| 220 | Let's look at Nvidia relative to the rest of the S&P 500, | 让我们看看Nvidia相对于其他的S&P500, |
| 221 | Jacob. | 雅各 雅各 雅各 雅各 雅各 雅各 |
| 222 | This is a slide that Ted and I had in some previous decks | 这是Ted和我以前在甲板上的幻灯片 |
| 223 | just to highlight the steep, | 只是为了突出陡峭, |
| 224 | the ramp of valuation and market cap change. | 估值和市场上限变化的斜坡。 |
| 225 | And also on the left-hand side, | 在左边, |
| 226 | you can see the return profile of the Mag-7, | 你可以看到马格 -7的回归简介, |
| 227 | what is referred to as Magnificent 7 colloquially, | 被称为伟大的7号口号, |
| 228 | relative to the rest of the return of the S&P 500 | 相对于S&P 500返回的其余部分 |
| 229 | over that time span. | 在那段时间里 |
| 230 | And then the right-hand chart, excuse me, | 然后右手图 对不起 |
| 231 | you can see Nvidia in red, | 你可以看到Nvidia的红色, |
| 232 | the ramp from 2023 into 2025. | 从2023年到2025年的坡道。 |
| 233 | That's the valuation change. | 这就是估值的变化。 |
| 234 | And then, Jacob, can you jump up | 然后,雅各布,你能跳起来 |
| 235 | to the previous slide, please? | 请转到上一张幻灯片。 |
| 236 | So that's Nvidia eclipsing the, I think, what is it, | 所以,这是Nvidia 私奔,我想,是什么, |
| 237 | the two trillion, the $3 trillion mark, | 2兆,3兆马克, |
| 238 | and then look at the middle of the chart, | 然后看看图表的中间, |
| 239 | the $3 trillion mark, | 3兆马克, |
| 240 | and then having Nvidia go from $3 trillion to $4 to $5 | 然后让Nvidia从3万亿美元到4美元到5美元 |
| 241 | in short order is just phenomenal, | 简而言之,这是惊人的, |
| 242 | which tells you a couple of things. | 它告诉你一些事情。 |
| 243 | One, primarily, is the street investor, | 首先 街头投资人 |
| 244 | the investor base, et cetera, | 投资基础,等等, |
| 245 | has enormous expectations for payoff | 对回报的期望很高 |
| 246 | for the company to grow into that valuation. | 让公司成长为这种估值 |
| 247 | This is not a cheap play to invest in. | 这不是一个廉价的游戏投资。 |
| 248 | And it also forecasts that all of these cloud providers, | 并且它也预测所有这些云提供商, |
| 249 | these tech firms are gonna continue to spend | 这些技术公司将继续花费 |
| 250 | into this AI trend. | 进入这种AI趋势。 |
| 251 | And so what we're trying to do with these slides | 我们想用这些幻灯片做什么 |
| 252 | is frame up the opportunity | 正在设定机会 |
| 253 | of how much capital is at stake, | 事关多少资本, |
| 254 | how many participants are involved | 参与人数 |
| 255 | in the broader AI spectrum. | 在更广泛的AI谱系。 |
| 256 | Jacob, can you please advance two slides? | 雅各,你能不能提前两张幻灯片? |
| 257 | Let's also put five trillion in perspective | 也让我们把五万亿的视角 |
| 258 | relative to other sectors in the S&P. | 相对于S&P的其他部门。 |
| 259 | Nvidia alone eclipsing the entire S&P 500 industrials, | 单是Nvidia就破坏了整个S&P500工业 |
| 260 | consumer staples, et cetera, is quite incredible. | 食用主食等都令人难以置信。 |
| 261 | Let's also jump to the private side | 我们跳到私人那边去 |
| 262 | because, okay, so we see public companies, | 因为,好吧,所以我们看到公共公司, |
| 263 | we see the news and the headlines, | 我们看到新闻和头条新闻 |
| 264 | we read the financial statements that come out, earnings, | 我们读财务报表出来,收入, |
| 265 | but what's happening on the private side? | 但私人方面发生了什么? |
| 266 | Here's another trend that Ted and I have been tracking. | 泰德和我一直在追踪另一个趋势 |
| 267 | We've brought it up in our 960 class, | 我们在960课上提起过 |
| 268 | economic analysis of high-tech industries. | 高新技术产业经济分析. |
| 269 | We have seen incredible growth | 我们看到了惊人的增长 |
| 270 | in AI investments on the private side. | 在AI的私人投资。 |
| 271 | The US has a rich and deep VC ecosystem. | 美国的VC生态系统丰富而深厚. |
| 272 | And we've seen capital deployment | 我们已经看到资本部署 |
| 273 | that's also at unprecedented levels | 也达到了前所未有的水平 |
| 274 | that we've never seen before in the private markets, | 我们从来没有见过 在私人市场, |
| 275 | specifically with AI bets. | 特别是人工智能赌注。 |
| 276 | 你看看Unicor的估价 | |
| 277 | or companies that eclipsed a billion dollars in valuation | 或超过10亿美元估值的公司 |
| 278 | at time of funding. | 在供资时。 |
| 279 | You've seen more of those in AI than ever before. | 你比以前见过更多的人工智能 |
| 280 | You're seeing that accelerate and continue. | 你正在看到这个加速和继续。 |
| 281 | AI startups have secured more funding | AI创业企业获得了更多的资金 |
| 282 | than the rest of the entire ecosystem. | 而不是整个生态系统的其余部分 |
| 283 | Now it's more than half of US venture dollars in 2025 | 2025年的美国投资额超过一半 |
| 284 | have been specifically for AI investments. | 专用于AI投资. |
| 285 | Let's also remember that's... | 我们也要记住... |
| 286 | Yes, Ted. | 对,泰德 |
| 287 | Let me insert my view. | 让我插入我的观点。 |
| 288 | The question that's been raised, | 已经提出的问题, |
| 289 | and probably everybody who is participating | 可能所有参与的人 |
| 290 | in this webinar has seen this question. | 在这个webinar已经看到了这个问题。 |
| 291 | Are we in an AI bubble? | 我们在AI泡沫里吗? |
| 292 | And I'll give you my take, | 我把我的货给你 |
| 293 | and then Logan, maybe you could add your comments. | 然后洛根,也许你可以补充你的评论。 |
| 294 | But my take is what Logan has established | 但我的判断是洛根已经确定 |
| 295 | is that the AI spends are huge and accelerating. | 人工智能的花费是巨大的和加速的。 |
| 296 | And then secondly, the stock market is saying, | 其次,股票市场说, |
| 297 | bravo, good, we like this. | 好极了,我们喜欢这样 |
| 298 | They're rewarding the companies that are spending | 他们在奖励那些花钱的公司 |
| 299 | in terms of expectations around future earnings. | 未来收益的预期值。 |
| 300 | So- It's unusual. | 所以说... 无常. |
| 301 | If there's an AI bubble, | 如果有AI泡沫, |
| 302 | both the firms are wrong and the street is wrong. | 公司和街道都错了 |
| 303 | So I tend not to think we are in an AI bubble. | 所以,我倾向于不认为 我们在AI泡沫。 |
| 304 | Instead, I think what we're in is, | 相反,我认为我们是在, |
| 305 | as Lisa Sue says, the second inning, | 正如丽莎·苏所说 第二局 |
| 306 | forgive the sports analogy, | 原谅运动类比, |
| 307 | but it's the World Series time, | 但这是世界大赛的时间, |
| 308 | the second inning of a nine inning game. | 9局比赛的第二局 |
| 309 | It's early days. | 初发心. |
| 310 | Yeah, so Logan, what do you think? | 是啊,罗根,你觉得呢? |
| 311 | Are we in an AI bubble? | 我们在AI泡沫里吗? |
| 312 | In my view right now, | 在我看来,现在, |
| 313 | and my view is that the private market | 我认为私人市场 |
| 314 | has gotten ahead of itself in some of the valuations | 在一些估值中,它超越了自身 |
| 315 | for firms that are pre-product. | 用于预产品企业。 |
| 316 | They don't have a product, | 他们没有产品, |
| 317 | yet they may have a billion dollar valuation. | 然而,它们可能会有十亿美元的价值。 |
| 318 | Large public companies, they have lines of business | 大型公共公司,有业务往来 |
| 319 | that can support initiatives for longer. | 可以支持更长时间的倡议。 |
| 320 | They have, obviously their balance sheets are stronger. | 他们的资产负债表显然更坚固。 |
| 321 | So if you have a company, a private company | 如果你有一个公司,一个私人公司 |
| 322 | that was started eight months ago, | 八个月前开始的 |
| 323 | that's valued at a billion dollars, | 价值十亿美元 |
| 324 | that has no product, | 没有产物, |
| 325 | and that could be eclipsed by another LLM | 这可能会被另一个LLM侵蚀 |
| 326 | or some other application almost overnight | 或其他应用程序几乎一夜之间 |
| 327 | or within a quarter, | 或在一个季度之内, |
| 328 | that to me seems shakier. | 对我来说,这似乎比较摇摆。 |
| 329 | You've seen commentary out of leading firms | 你见过大公司的评论 |
| 330 | 例如说AI投资方式的 Sequoia | |
| 331 | has gotten a little bit over its skis, | 已经得到了一点点 滑雪, |
| 332 | meaning it's wobbly, meaning it's maybe toppy, | 意思是它摇摆不定, 意思是它可能是Topy, |
| 333 | or there's been too much, too many dollars | 或有太多,太多的钱 |
| 334 | chasing too few deals. | 追逐太多的交易。 |
| 335 | So I think private markets look a little bit shakier to me | 所以我觉得私人市场看起来比较不稳定 |
| 336 | in terms of valuation rather than the public space. | 就估价而言,而不是就公共空间而言。 |
| 337 | And then this chart highlights OpenAI, | 然后这个图突出 OpenAI, |
| 338 | which is, everybody knows OpenAI, | 也就是说,每个人都知道OpenAI, |
| 339 | they have over 800 million users, | 他们有超过8亿用户, |
| 340 | very few of those paying users, by the way, | 顺便说一句,那些付费用户中很少有人 |
| 341 | low single digit percentage. | 低位数百分比。 |
| 342 | However, this company has become the most valuable | 然而,这家公司已经成为最有价值的 |
| 343 | private company in the world at this time. | 此时世界上的私人公司。 |
| 344 | So valuation eclipsing $500 billion. | 所以价值为5000亿美元。 |
| 345 | So this is one of the leading firms in the world right now. | 因此,这是目前世界上领先的公司之一。 |
| 346 | They also have allied with the US government | 他们也和美国政府结盟 |
| 347 | and different technology firms. | 和不同的技术公司。 |
| 348 | Let's jump to the next slide, Jacob. | 让我们跳到下一个幻灯片,雅各布。 |
| 349 | Let's put this in perspective. | 让我们把这个角度。 |
| 350 | They've done about 1.5 trillion in aggregate deal value, | 他们做了大约1.5万亿的总交易价值, |
| 351 | meaning that when they went to Oracle, | 意思是当他们去甲骨文, |
| 352 | they made a multi-hundred billion dollar deal saying | 他们做了几千亿美元的交易 |
| 353 | Oracle's gonna invest this much money with OpenAI, | 甲骨文会投资这么多钱给OpenAI, |
| 354 | whether that's cash or equity and over what time span. | 不管是现金还是股本 还要花多长时间 |
| 355 | So each firm in this chart has a different deal | 所以这张图上每个公司都有不同的交易 |
| 356 | and deal terms, obviously at different times. | 和交易条件,显然在不同的时间。 |
| 357 | This chart shows, and the reason I really like this chart | 这个图表显示了 我真正喜欢这个图表的原因 |
| 358 | is because it shows the news announcement | 是因为它显示新闻公告 |
| 359 | 与OpenAI交易之日。 | |
| 360 | 当OpenAI与甲骨文或Nvidia或AMD做交易时, | |
| 361 | what happened to the stock price? | 股价怎么样? |
| 362 | And these are not small firms, by the way, Ted, as you know, | 顺便说一句,这些不是小公司,泰德,你知道, |
| 363 | these are leading technology firms. | 它们是领先的技术公司。 |
| 364 | But if you look at the change in market cap, market value, | 但是,如果你看看 市场上限,市场价值的变化, |
| 365 | just based on that news announcement alone is amazing. | 仅仅根据那个新闻公告是惊人的。 |
| 366 | And we've never seen anything like this before. | 且道从来不曾见. |
| 367 | And so OpenAI in what we say in the US | 因此,OpenAI在我们在美国说的话 |
| 368 | has become a kingmaker that if you have a deal with OpenAI, | 如果你和OpenAI有协议 |
| 369 | you present that in the news, | 你在新闻里说, |
| 370 | your valuation could change overnight dramatically. | 您的估值可能一夜之间发生巨大变化。 |
| 371 | And so we've seen behavior like this, | 所以我们见过这样的行为 |
| 372 | and this all coalesces into a lot of attention | 这一切都会引起人们的注意 |
| 373 | from the US and the G2, et cetera. | 从美国和G2等。 |
| 374 | Ted, do you have a comment on this? | Ted 你有什么意见吗? |
| 375 | I have a comment at all about, we mentioned Oracle, | 我有一个评论 关于,我们提到甲骨文, |
| 376 | and after this pop in Oracle's value, | 在甲骨文的价值之后 |
| 377 | we, I think, expressed some skepticism. | 我认为,我们表示了一些怀疑。 |
| 378 | And when you look to the right of the vertical line | 当你看着垂直线的右边 |
| 379 | marking the date of the deal, | 以交易日期为标志, |
| 380 | you see Oracle hasn't solidified those gains. | 甲骨文并没有巩固这些成果 |
| 381 | Contrast that with AMD, what happens afterwards. | 和AMD对比一下 之后会发生什么 |
| 382 | So it seems to me not all these AI deals, | 在我看来 并不是所有的AI交易 |
| 383 | OpenAI的交易就像, | |
| 384 | but still your major point is AI is a kingmaker, | 但你的要点是AI是做国王的 |
| 385 | central player, and these announced partnerships | 中心玩家,这些宣布的伙伴关系 |
| 386 | generate huge gains for the partner. | 给合伙人带来巨大的收益。 |
| 387 | Yeah, that's right. | 没错 |
| 388 | It reflects that the street and the investors believe | 它反映出街道和投资者相信 |
| 389 | that these deals are real, | 这些交易是真实的, |
| 390 | and it's not just something that's a news headline | 不只是新闻头条 |
| 391 | or something like that. | 或者类似的东西。 |
| 392 | Let's remember that in years past, | 让我们记住,在过去的岁月里, |
| 393 | many companies, more than half the S&P tech firms | 许多公司,一半以上的科技公司 |
| 394 | would say AI or machine learning | 可以说是人工智能或机器学习 |
| 395 | on something on their earnings call. | 他们的薪水有问题 |
| 396 | The stock wouldn't really react to that | 股票不会真的反应 |
| 397 | because there wasn't line of sight. | 因为没有视线 |
| 398 | Now, if you look at AMD, they design GPUs. | 现在,如果你看AMD, 他们设计GPU。 |
| 399 | They are in a duopoly with Nvidia, | 他们和Nvidia处于双重垄断状态 |
| 400 | and so when OpenAI says, we're going to use your GPUs, | 所以当OpenAI说, 我们要用你的GPU, |
| 401 | we're going to use your product, | 我们要用你的产品 |
| 402 | that's, I think, a more convincing argument than saying, | 这比说得更有说服力 |
| 403 | we'll help Oracle with their cloud services business | 我们会帮甲骨文公司做云服务生意 |
| 404 | in a lot of different ways, maybe is less believable. | 在很多不同的方式, 也许不那么可信。 |
| 405 | Let's also highlight that that movement in Oracle | 我们还要强调甲骨文中的运动 |
| 406 | that day, the announcement was the largest jump | 那天,宣布是最大的跳跃 |
| 407 | in Oracle stock in over 30 years, | 在甲骨文股票 超过30年, |
| 408 | I think since the 90s, Ted, which is amazing. | 我想从90年代开始,泰德,这是惊人的。 |
| 409 | However, has that excitement faded a little bit? | 然而,这种兴奋有一点消退吗? |
| 410 | Maybe so. | 也许吧 |
| 411 | If you don't have a comment, we'll move on to the next slide. | 如果你没有评论,我们将转到下一张幻灯片。 |
| 412 | I just want to touch on energy use for a little bit. | 我只想谈谈能量的使用 |
| 413 | So this is a bit of a lagging statistic, | 所以,这是一个有点落后的统计, |
| 414 | but this shows data center use in terms of all electricity, | 这显示了数据中心在所有电力方面的使用, |
| 415 | which is on the right-hand side of the chart, | 在图表的右侧, |
| 416 | map of the United States, continental US, | 美国大陆地图 美国大陆地图 |
| 417 | and then the left-hand side of the chart, | 然后是图表的左侧, |
| 418 | it shows the projection in gigawatts | 它显示以千兆瓦计的投影 |
| 419 | of data center use in the future. | 未来使用数据中心。 |
| 420 | The reason why I want this chart, | 我要这张图表的原因 |
| 421 | I want to see this chart just in the back of your mind | 我想在你脑海中看到这张图表 |
| 422 | marinating is what's going to happen to the energy? | 能量会怎样? |
| 423 | What's going to happen to the energy use of us as citizens, | 我们作为公民的能量使用将会发生什么 |
| 424 | but quite literally, | 但实际上, |
| 425 | how are we going to power the data centers? | 我们怎么给数据中心供电? |
| 426 | What's China doing? | 中国在做什么? |
| 427 | China's outspending the US. | 中国耗资超过美国. |
| 428 | They're building more plants. | 他们正在建造更多的植物. |
| 429 | They're building more energy faster than the US can. | 他们建造的能量比美国快 |
| 430 | That's going to dictate some of the policy decisions | 这将会决定一些政策 |
| 431 | that both the G2 players are going to take. | G2两个选手都得接受 |
| 432 | And that energy conversation is, pardon the clumsy analogy, | 而能源对话是, 原谅这个笨拙的类比, |
| 433 | it's heating up, Ted. | 它的加热,泰德。 |
| 434 | You're seeing more of that in the news. | 你在新闻里看到更多了 |
| 435 | It's quite literally, where are we going to get the power? | 从字面上讲,我们在哪里获得电力? |
| 436 | So anyway, we're not going to spend a lot of time on that, | 所以,无论如何,我们不会花 很多时间在那个, |
| 437 | but I want the audience to remember | 但我希望观众记住 |
| 438 | that the energy conversation is fundamental | 能源对话至关重要 |
| 439 | to the tech and the semis at this time, | 现在的科技和半导体, |
| 440 | and will continue to be. | 并会继续。 |
| 441 | And then let's draw some conclusions lastly, | 最后让我们得出一些结论, |
| 442 | and then jump into the next part of the presentation, please. | 然后跳到演示的下一个部分,请。 |
| 443 | So NVIDIA is central to the semiconductor narrative globally. | 因此NVIDIA是全球半导体叙事的核心. |
| 444 | It's of global interest to many participants. | 引起了许多参与者的全球关注. |
| 445 | It's also, it's important, but it's just one piece. | 这也是,它是重要的,但它只是一块。 |
| 446 | I think it's more important to highlight | 我想更应该强调一下 |
| 447 | that China and the US, they both have influenced other | 中国和美国 都影响了其他 |
| 448 | over different, and what our belief is | 我们的信念 |
| 449 | is complementary pillars of the AI ecosystem. | 是人工智能生态系统的补充支柱。 |
| 450 | US has positions that are leading in hardware semis, | 美国在硬件半音方面领先 |
| 451 | 很明显,NVIDIA,AMD等等,更多的LLMs. | |
| 452 | We have a deep venture ecosystem in the US. | 我们在美国有一个冒险的生态系统。 |
| 453 | China has mass scale, Ted. | 中国有大规模规模,泰德。 |
| 454 | China has mass industrial adoption, implementation, | 中国有大规模工业收养,实施, |
| 455 | state backing in different ways. | 国家以不同方式提供支持。 |
| 456 | You have both are expanding their influence where they can. | 你们都在扩大他们的影响力 |
| 457 | I'll give you an example, Qualcomm developing its AI chips | 我举个例子,Qualcomm开发它的AI芯片 |
| 458 | that are going to hit the market in 2026. | 将在2026年上市 |
| 459 | We haven't talked about that today. | 我们今天还没谈这个 |
| 460 | That'll be interesting to talk about | 说起来很有趣 |
| 461 | in future conversations. | 在未来的对话中。 |
| 462 | Or interesting companies that are not in stealth mode, | 或有趣的公司 不以隐形模式, |
| 463 | but are coming to light a little bit. | 却有点被曝光了 |
| 464 | Companies like Substrate that have secured | 获得担保的基斯特等公司 |
| 465 | about a hundred million investment that do lithography. | 大约1亿投资 做石刻。 |
| 466 | So the machines that design the chips, | 所以设计芯片的机器 |
| 467 | challenging ASML that are one-tenth the size | 挑战大小为1/10的ASML |
| 468 | that can be built in the US. | 它可以在美国建造。 |
| 469 | That's very exciting. | 真令人兴奋 |
| 470 | And so in China's driving adoption, | 所以在中国的驾驶收养中 |
| 471 | obviously there's a mountain of academic research in China | 很明显,中国有一大堆学术研究 |
| 472 | with patents and things like that with leading firms. | 有专利和类似的事情 与领先的公司。 |
| 473 | And China is investing heavily in that. | 中国正在为此投入大量资金。 |
| 474 | And so they're expanding their influence where they can, | 因此,他们正在扩大他们的影响力 在他们可以, |
| 475 | which will define the direction of not just the semis, | 它将确定不仅半径的方向, |
| 476 | but the AI boom and the umbrella in general. | 但AI的繁荣和伞一般。 |
| 477 | So back to you, Ted. | 回到你身边吧 Ted |
| 478 | Let's pause, maybe get a couple of questions | 让我们暂停一下,也许得到几个问题 |
| 479 | from the audience, fill in a couple of gaps, | 从观众,填补一些空白, |
| 480 | and then we'll move on. | 然后我们继续前进 |
| 481 | Thank you, Logan and Jacob. | 谢谢你,罗根和雅各布。 |
| 482 | Any questions sort of popping? | 有什么问题吗? |
| 483 | Feel free to raise your hand, type in the chat. | 随便你举手,在聊天时打字 |
| 484 | We can unmute if you can't unmute yourself | {\fn华文楷体\fs20\bord1\shad1\1cHE0E0E0\2cH000000}我們可以解密,如果你不能解密自己的話 |
| 485 | or just turn your camera. | 或者转动你的相机。 |
| 486 | If not, feel free to type the questions in the chat | 如果没有,请在聊天中随意输入问题 |
| 487 | as we go on. | 继续 |
| 488 | And we will have a Q&A at the very end of the deck. | 我们将在甲板的尽头有一个A。 |
| 489 | Ted, I don't see any questions at this time. | 泰德,我现在没看到任何问题 |
| 490 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 491 | Thank you again, Logan. | 再次感谢你,洛根。 |
| 492 | Let's go to the next topic. | 下个话题 |
| 493 | So given what Logan has established | 所以,鉴于洛根已经建立 |
| 494 | that the semiconductor is really central | 半导体是真正的中心 |
| 495 | to the rivalry between China and the US, | 中国和美国之间的竞争, |
| 496 | what are the strategies that make sense | 什么样的策略才有意义 |
| 497 | for those two countries? | 那两个国家? |
| 498 | And the first question we want to address is, | 我们首先要回答的问题是: |
| 499 | can China and the US create their own individual | 中国和美国能创造自己的个人吗? |
| 500 | supply chains for semiconductors? | 半导体供应链? |
| 501 | What do we mean by that? | 我们是什么意思? |
| 502 | It's not necessarily all within China | 不一定都是中国的 |
| 503 | and all within the US, but supply chains | 和所有在美国, 但供应链 |
| 504 | that don't involve the other and instead rely | 而不是依赖 |
| 505 | on other countries where the US or China | 美国或中国的其他国家 |
| 506 | would feel that they've got a high level of assurance | 觉得他们有高度的保证 |
| 507 | that the supply chain won't break down. | 供应链不会崩溃 |
| 508 | And then the second topic is very hot topic. | 然后第二个话题非常热门. |
| 509 | Will China restrict the sales of rare earth elements? | 中国是否会限制稀土元素的销售?. |
| 510 | And we had predictions about number two | 我们预测到了第二 |
| 511 | and our predictions are consistent with what just happened. | 我们的预测与刚才发生的事情是一致的 |
| 512 | So we'll get to that. | 所以,我们会得到这一点。 |
| 513 | And then the third is what is missing | 第三点是缺少的东西 |
| 514 | when you read all these analyses of what China's doing | 当你读到所有这些分析 中国在做什么 |
| 515 | and the US is doing. | 美国正在这样做。 |
| 516 | Is there something missing? | 有什么缺漏吗? |
| 517 | I think there is. | 我觉得有 |
| 518 | So that'll be the last question, | 所以,这将是最后一个问题, |
| 519 | but let's go back to supply chains. | 但让我们回到供应链。 |
| 520 | And both countries have signaled | 两国都发出信号 |
| 521 | that they want to move in this direction | 他们想朝这个方向前进 |
| 522 | with their own controlled supply chains. | 拥有自己控制的供应链。 |
| 523 | And the US policy started with the CHIPS Act | 美国的政策始于《CHIPS法案》 |
| 524 | and you get the investments and foundries in the US. | 在美国得到投资和铸币 |
| 525 | US is taking stakes in high-tech companies. | 美国在高科技公司参股 |
| 526 | Intel is an example. | 英特尔就是一个例子. |
| 527 | You've also got stakes in quantum computing. | 你还有量子计算方面的利害关系. |
| 528 | And the US has been encouraging companies to manufacture | 美国一直鼓励公司制造 |
| 529 | and invest in the US companies such as TSMC and Samsung. | 并投资美国TSMC和三星等公司. |
| 530 | So the US is taking actions | 所以美国正在采取行动 |
| 531 | that are potentially moving it down this path. | 有可能沿着这条路走下去 |
| 532 | And for China, they've been emphasizing | 对于中国来说,他们一直强调 |
| 533 | technological self-reliance for years. | 技术自立多年. |
| 534 | And the fourth, and I'm forgetting the term, | 而第四个,我忘了术语, |
| 535 | but the fourth statement that just was made recently | 但最近刚刚发表的第四项声明 |
| 536 | included this emphasis on self-reliance | 包括强调自力更生 |
| 537 | when it comes to technology. | 在技术方面。 |
| 538 | Fourth plenum, thank you. | 第四合唱团 谢谢 |
| 539 | And then what I find interesting, | 然后我发现有趣的是, |
| 540 | and it's a little bit opaque, | 有点不透明, |
| 541 | meaning it's hard for me to understand | 意思是我很难理解 |
| 542 | exactly how it's done. | 就是这样做的。 |
| 543 | China's making huge VC-style investments | 中国在进行VC型投资 |
| 544 | through investment funds that are related to the government. | 通过与政府有关的投资基金。 |
| 545 | So back to the question, | 所以,回到问题, |
| 546 | will this actually lead to each country | 这将真正导致每个国家 |
| 547 | having their own supply chains for semiconductors? | 拥有自己的半导体供应链? |
| 548 | Our answer is no. | 我们的答案是否定的。 |
| 549 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 550 | Why do we say no? | 为什么我们拒绝? |
| 551 | It's because when we look at the nine stages of production | 是因为当我们观察 九个生产阶段 |
| 552 | when it comes to semiconductors, | 当它涉及到半导体时, |
| 553 | we observe, first of all, there are nine stages. | 我们首先观察的是九个阶段 |
| 554 | So getting control over nine stages is hard. | 所以控制9个阶段很难 |
| 555 | It's complicated, and it's an extremely global supply chain. | 这很复杂,而且是一个极其全球性的供应链. |
| 556 | So raw materials to wafer production, design, | 因此,原料 饼生产,设计, |
| 557 | the equipment that's used to actually create | 用来实际创建的设备 |
| 558 | the semiconductors, the foundries, | 半导体,铸造物, |
| 559 | memory and purchasers, it's the, I'm sorry, | 记忆和购买者, 这是,对不起, |
| 560 | assembly and testing, manufacturing services, | 装配和测试、制造服务、 |
| 561 | and then going to the end purchasers. | 然后去找最后的买家 |
| 562 | It's a complicated supply chain. | 这是一个复杂的供应链。 |
| 563 | And then let's look at where the leading firms are | 然后让我们看看大公司在哪里 |
| 564 | in each of these steps. | 每一个步骤。 |
| 565 | Look how global this supply chain is | 看看这个供应链是如何全球性的 |
| 566 | if you look at the leading firms. | 如果你看看领先的公司。 |
| 567 | So raw materials, Japan, China, global wafers, | 因此,原材料,日本,中国, 全球饼, |
| 568 | pops when we look at the wafer production, | 当我们看饼片的时候, |
| 569 | look at design, Qualcomm is a good example. | 看设计,Qualcomm是一个很好的例子. |
| 570 | They're based in the US. | 总部在美国 |
| 571 | ASML has the equipment for lithography. | ASML拥有图画设备. |
| 572 | They may be getting competition from Substrate, | 他们可能从亚斯特拉提开始竞争 |
| 573 | a company that Logan mentioned. | 罗根提到的公司 |
| 574 | And then you go to the foundries. | 然后你去铸币局。 |
| 575 | Where are the top foundries? | 顶部铸币局呢? |
| 576 | And then where do you get the memory software added in, | 然后,你在哪里得到 内存软件添加, |
| 577 | South Korea, and so forth? | 韩国,等等? |
| 578 | Assembly, lots of different places, | 集会,很多不同的地方, |
| 579 | manufacturing services, lots of different places. | 制造服务, 很多不同的地方。 |
| 580 | The end purchasers are all over the globe. | 最终购买者遍布全球. |
| 581 | So could they continue to move in this direction? | 因此,他们能否继续朝这个方向前进? |
| 582 | Sure, but it's costly and it would take a lot of time. | 当然,但代价很高,需要很多时间。 |
| 583 | So to the extent that we are right, | 所以只要我们是对的 |
| 584 | and I think Lloyd and I feel pretty confident about this, | 我觉得劳埃德和我很有信心 |
| 585 | this sort of divorce and creating separate supply chains | 这种离婚和建立单独的供应链 |
| 586 | is not gonna happen for many years. | 很多年都不会发生 |
| 587 | And to the extent that each country pursues this | 只要各国追求 |
| 588 | as an objective, just like divorces, | 作为一个目标,就像离婚, |
| 589 | it's gonna be costly. | 这将是昂贵的。 |
| 590 | It's costly to duplicate steps | 重复台阶成本很高 |
| 591 | that another country is better at. | 那另一个国家更适合。 |
| 592 | And it's just like dual sourcing. | 这就像双重来源。 |
| 593 | Dual sourcing may make sense in some situations, | 在某些情况下,双重来源可能是合理的, |
| 594 | but it's costly. | 但它的昂贵。 |
| 595 | It's costly to have the insurance | 保险费太高了 |
| 596 | of the second and third source of supply. | 供应来源。 |
| 597 | So Logan, do you have comments that are reinforcing | 所以,洛根,你有什么意见 是加强 |
| 598 | or maybe diverging from what I just said? | 还是和我刚才说的不一样? |
| 599 | Our answer is no. | 我们的答案是否定的。 |
| 600 | Yeah, well, supportive of what you said, Ted. | 支持你说的话 Ted |
| 601 | I mean, each of these, | 我的意思是,每个这些, |
| 602 | if you think about the nine steps | 如果你想到这九步 |
| 603 | that when we're summarizing, | 当我们总结, |
| 604 | obviously there's a lot more nuance to this. | 很明显,还有更多的细微差别。 |
| 605 | However, these main stages, | 然而,这些主要阶段, |
| 606 | that each technological handoff that you see | 你们所看见的每个技术的交接, |
| 607 | there's a tremendous amount of intellectual | 有很多知识分子 |
| 608 | and human capital and specialization that goes into this. | 人力资本和专业化也随之而来。 |
| 609 | And so it's easy enough to say, | 因此,它很容易说, |
| 610 | okay, we'll go build you a race car | 好吧,我们去给你造一辆赛车 |
| 611 | out in the desert of Arizona | 在亚利桑那的沙漠里 |
| 612 | that can kind of do all this stuff | 能做这么多事 |
| 613 | and the machines that build the machines, | 和制造机器的机器, |
| 614 | where are you gonna get the individuals | 你要去哪里得到个人 |
| 615 | that are able to do this? | 能够做到这一点? |
| 616 | And so in support of what Ted's commenting on | 为了支持Ted的评论 |
| 617 | is that it's too global. | 这是太全球性了。 |
| 618 | It's too complicated to just dismantle. | 这太复杂了,不能随便拆掉 |
| 619 | And also starting over from the beginning, | 而且从头开始 |
| 620 | embryonically shielding these industries | 初步保护这些工业 |
| 621 | and growing them up is tremendously capital intensive, | 使他们生长,是资本的集中, |
| 622 | would take a tremendous amount of time. | 需要很多时间 |
| 623 | But not only that, the industry is moving so quickly. | 不仅如此,工业进展如此迅速。 |
| 624 | And Ted and I say this in almost every lecture, | 泰德和我几乎每次演讲都这么说 |
| 625 | the speed and the amplitude of these motions in technology | 技术中这些运动的速度和振幅 |
| 626 | is different than any other industry that you'd analyze. | 和你分析过的其他行业不同 |
| 627 | And especially with AI, you're having new LLMs | 特别是人工智能,你有新的LLMS |
| 628 | sometimes every week or every three months | 有时每周或每三个月 |
| 629 | that come out that absolutely dwarf the power | 出来那 绝对矮 力量 |
| 630 | or the precision of other models. | 或者其他模型的精度。 |
| 631 | And so something that's moving that fast | 如此迅速移动的东西 |
| 632 | with that's that costly, | 如此昂贵, |
| 633 | very difficult to disarticulate it | 很难解开 |
| 634 | and build it back from the ground up, Ted, in our view. | 并把它从地上重建回来,泰德,在我们看来。 |
| 635 | So that's our answer to the first question. | 这就是我们第一个问题的答案。 |
| 636 | The countries will talk about this. | 各国将讨论这个问题。 |
| 637 | They're gonna have political motivations | 他们会有政治动机的 |
| 638 | to go in this direction, | 朝这个方向走, |
| 639 | but they're not gonna really get anywhere close | 但他们不会真正接近 |
| 640 | to separate supply chains. | 将供应链分开。 |
| 641 | And there are obviously implications of not getting to that. | 很明显,没有做到这点有其影响。 |
| 642 | Let's go to the next question, | 让我们来谈谈下一个问题, |
| 643 | which concerns the rare earth minerals. | 它涉及稀土矿物。 |
| 644 | And the first bullet point here, | 第一个子弹点在这里, |
| 645 | I mean, I see different percentages. | 我的意思是,我看到不同的比例。 |
| 646 | This is a particular source that's cited in the notes, | 这是笔记中引用的一个特殊来源, |
| 647 | but whatever source you look at, | 但无论你们所观察的事物, |
| 648 | China accounts for a very high share of production | 中国在生产中占很大份额 |
| 649 | and refined production. | 和精细生产。 |
| 650 | And this is different though from reserves. | 这和储备不同 |
| 651 | China, and even if you add in Russia, | 中国,即使你加入俄罗斯, |
| 652 | presume that you wanna couple those, | 假设你想 夫妇这些, |
| 653 | they have less than 20% of the global land mass. | 它们拥有不到20%的全球土地。 |
| 654 | And I don't know exactly the distribution of reserves, | 我不知道储备的分布情况 |
| 655 | but I think it's pretty clear that reserves are found | 但我认为很显然 储备已经找到 |
| 656 | in a lot of different countries. | 在很多不同的国家。 |
| 657 | US was a leading supplier of rare earths a few decades ago. | 美国是几十年前稀土的主要供应商。 |
| 658 | And so I think it's the case | 所以我觉得是这样 |
| 659 | that many countries possess rare earth reserves, | 许多国家拥有稀土储备, |
| 660 | but they're not producing them now. | 但他们现在不生产了 |
| 661 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 662 | It's complex. | 这很复杂 |
| 663 | And another factor that's not listed here | 还有另一个因素不在这里列出 |
| 664 | is mining rare earth reserves. | 是开采稀土储备 |
| 665 | It involves a lot of cost to the environment. | 这对环境造成很大的代价。 |
| 666 | And that's probably why the US is backed off. | 这也许是美国被退缩的原因。 |
| 667 | We'll see whether Australia and other countries ramp up, | 我们看看澳大利亚和其它国家是否升级了 |
| 668 | but China has systematically pursued this position, | 但中国一贯奉行这一立场, |
| 669 | this leading position with rare earths. | 这个有稀土的领先位置 |
| 670 | Now the question is, what do they do with it? | 现在的问题是,他们拿它做什么? |
| 671 | Do they actually get organized | 他们真的有组织吗? |
| 672 | and severely restrict rare earth exports? | 并严格限制稀土出口? |
| 673 | Our answer is no. | 我们的答案是否定的。 |
| 674 | Again, the answer is no. | 再说一次,答案是否定的。 |
| 675 | Let's look at the next slide. | 让我们看看下一个幻灯片。 |
| 676 | So our view is they're positioning, | 所以,我们的看法是,他们是定位, |
| 677 | China is positioning itself to control exports. | 中国正在定位于控制出口。 |
| 678 | So you would need a license to buy from China, | 所以,你需要 许可证从中国购买, |
| 679 | and there would be limits on resale of rare earths | 对稀土的转售有限制 |
| 680 | for licensees. | 被许可人。 |
| 681 | This had been scheduled to go into effect | 原计划生效的 |
| 682 | in about 10 days, | 大约10天后 |
| 683 | but consistent with our expectation, | 但符合我们的期望 |
| 684 | the Xi-Trump meeting this week | 习近平本周的会议 |
| 685 | resulted in a one-year delay, a one-year truce. | 结果拖延一年,停战一年。 |
| 686 | But what still remains is a question, | 但还剩下一个问题 |
| 687 | might China actually pull the trigger, | 可能中国真的扣动了扳机 |
| 688 | and by that I mean severely restrict rare earths | 我的意思是严格限制稀土 |
| 689 | sometime in the future? | 将来的某个时候? |
| 690 | After the one-year delay, the truce is over. | 延后一年,停战结束. |
| 691 | And my answer is no. | 而我的答案是没有。 |
| 692 | It's not because it wouldn't have a huge effect, it would. | 不是因为它不会产生巨大的效果,而是会。 |
| 693 | It would have a devastating effect on the US, | 这将对美国造成毁灭性影响, |
| 694 | on the EU, and many other countries in Asia, | 以及亚洲其他许多国家, |
| 695 | around the world. | 环绕世界. |
| 696 | These rare earth minerals are so central | 这些稀土矿物是如此重要 |
| 697 | to many, many high-tech industries | 对许多高科技产业来说 |
| 698 | in manufacturing of high-tech products. | 在高科技产品制造方面。 |
| 699 | But there's a lesson here, | 但这里有个教训, |
| 700 | and this is one advantage I hope that I can bring, | 我希望我能带来一个优势 |
| 701 | an insight, there's a lesson from what OPEC did | 一个洞察力,有一个教训 从欧佩克做了什么 |
| 702 | in the 1970s. | 20世纪70年代。 |
| 703 | The OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries, | 欧佩克、石油输出国组织、 |
| 704 | including countries like Iran and Iraq and so forth, | 包括伊朗和伊拉克等国家, |
| 705 | in the 1970s, they severely restricted oil exports | 在1970年代,它们严格限制石油出口 |
| 706 | to the West and caused, I mean, big, big harm. | 给西方带来很大伤害 |
| 707 | I mean, in the US, there were gas, | 我的意思是,在美国, 有天然气, |
| 708 | there were lines to fill up your car or truck | 有排队填满你的车或卡车 |
| 709 | with petrol, gas. | 汽油,汽油,还有汽油 |
| 710 | The 70s was a bad decade for the US economy, | 70年代对美国经济来说是一个糟糕的十年 |
| 711 | in large part because of these restrictions on oil. | 在很大程度上是因为对石油的限制。 |
| 712 | At the time, we had a president, Jimmy Carter, | 当时,我们有一个总统,吉米卡特, |
| 713 | who sat in the White House and told everybody | 他坐在白宫 告诉所有人 |
| 714 | we were in an energy crisis | 我们在能源危机中 |
| 715 | and we couldn't put the air conditioning on | 我们无法打开空调 |
| 716 | as much as we wanted to, | 尽管我们想, |
| 717 | and we couldn't heat our homes as much as we wanted to. | 我们无法像我们想要的一样热房子 |
| 718 | So it was a really big deal, | 所以,这是一个真正的大问题, |
| 719 | not as big a deal as I think exporting rare earths | 不像出口稀土那么重要 |
| 720 | and severely restricting those. | 并严格限制这些。 |
| 721 | But here's the lesson, OPEC in 1972 | 但这里的教训,欧佩克在1972年 |
| 722 | had at least 50% of world oil production. | 世界石油产量至少占50%。 |
| 723 | Now they're down to 36%. | 现在已经降到36%了 |
| 724 | So as soon as you embark, as soon as a cartel | 所以,一旦你开始, 一旦一个卡特尔 |
| 725 | or an individual country embarks on restrictions, | 或一国开始实行限制, |
| 726 | it produces both demand and supply responses. | 它既产生需求反应,也产生供应反应。 |
| 727 | And the more time that you have for those, | 时间越多,你拥有这些, |
| 728 | the greater are those adjustments on the demand side | 需求方面的调整越大 |
| 729 | and on the supply side. | 和供给方面。 |
| 730 | There's not much people could do | 没有多少人可以做 |
| 731 | if China restricted rare earth exports immediately, | 如果中国立即限制稀土出口 |
| 732 | but within a few years, there would be supply responses. | 但是,在几年内,就会有供应反应。 |
| 733 | So what interesting facts about where OPEC is | 欧佩克在哪里有什么有趣的事实 |
| 734 | and where the US is on fossil fuels, | 而美国在化石燃料, |
| 735 | which are the leading countries | 它们是领先的国家 |
| 736 | when it comes to producing fossil fuels? | 在生产化石燃料方面? |
| 737 | Carbon includes coal, oil, natural gas. | 碳包括煤炭,石油,天然气. |
| 738 | Who's the leader? | 谁是领导者? |
| 739 | The United States. | 美国。 |
| 740 | Who's second? | 谁是第二位? |
| 741 | Russia. | 俄罗斯. |
| 742 | Who's third? | 谁是第三个? |
| 743 | Iran. | 伊朗语。 |
| 744 | So if you give these markets enough time, | 如果你给这些市场足够的时间 |
| 745 | what happens is that the power that you think the OPEC had | 发生的事情是,你认为欧佩克的力量 |
| 746 | diminishes over time. | 逐渐减少。 |
| 747 | If that's the case, and I think it would be the case | 如果是这样,我想会是这样 |
| 748 | if China restricted rare earth exports, | 如果中国限制稀土出口 |
| 749 | you would get supply and demand responses. | 你会得到供求反应。 |
| 750 | And exactly when you would get significant reduction | 以及你何时得到大幅削减 |
| 751 | in Chinese market power, I can't tell you, | 在中国市场实力,我不能告诉你, |
| 752 | I'm not an expert on this, but I know it would happen. | 我不是这方面的专家 但我知道这会发生的 |
| 753 | That's what economics tells us. | 这就是经济学告诉我们的。 |
| 754 | So now put ourselves in the position of China. | 所以,现在让我们站在中国的立场。 |
| 755 | What's their best strategy? | 他们的最佳策略是什么? |
| 756 | I think their best strategy is to get organized | 我认为他们最好的策略是组织起来 |
| 757 | with export controls and use that status, | 具有出口管制和使用这种状态, |
| 758 | that power as leverage, | 作为杠杆的力量, |
| 759 | but not actually severely restrict rare earth minerals. | 但实际上并不严格限制稀土矿物. |
| 760 | The other, not only would they lose market power over time, | 另一种,不仅会随着时间而失去市场支配力 |
| 761 | one of the constraints that China faces is | 中国面临的限制之一是: |
| 762 | they're the best at manufacturing | 他们最擅长制造 |
| 763 | so many different products. | 这么多不同的产品。 |
| 764 | EVs, of course, is one. | 当然,EVs是一个。 |
| 765 | Solar-related products. | 与太阳能有关的产品。 |
| 766 | We'll see what happens with robots, | 我们看看机器人会怎样 |
| 767 | all kinds of consumer goods. | 各种消费品. |
| 768 | China doesn't want to lose markets for their exports. | 中国不想失去他们的出口市场. |
| 769 | So export licenses, yeah, put them in place. | 因此,出口许可证,是的,将其到位。 |
| 770 | Don't severely restrict rare earth exports, | 不要严格限制稀土出口, |
| 771 | because if you did, | 因为如果你这样做, |
| 772 | you would kill your own export markets to a great extent. | 你将在很大程度上摧毁自己的出口市场。 |
| 773 | There would be retaliation, but even if there weren't, | 会有报复,但即使没有, |
| 774 | you would have trouble selling | 你会很难卖 |
| 775 | as much as you wanted to sell. | 就像你想卖的一样 |
| 776 | So our prediction before this week was, | 因此,我们在这个星期之前的预测是, |
| 777 | we're not going to see China really | 我们不会真的看到中国 |
| 778 | so-called pull the trigger on this. | 所谓扣动扳机 |
| 779 | It would be devastating, | 这将是毁灭性的, |
| 780 | but it's not in their short run, | 但它不是在他们的短期, |
| 781 | nor in their long run interests. | 也不符合他们的长远利益。 |
| 782 | And we're not surprised by the Jeep-Trump agreement | 我们并不惊讶吉普 -特朗普协议 |
| 783 | on a one-year delay. | 推迟一年 |
| 784 | Logan, comments about this? | 洛根,你对这件事有什么看法? |
| 785 | To wrap it up, this was our working hypothesis | 总之,这是我们的工作假设 |
| 786 | well before the meeting, | 在开会前 |
| 787 | and when we analyzed the industry at large | 当我们分析整个行业 |
| 788 | and the impact rare earths would have, | 和稀土的影响, |
| 789 | not just on the manufacturing delays, | 不只是制造延迟, |
| 790 | but also the relationships with other global firms, | 以及与其他全球公司的关系, |
| 791 | if China were to do this or pull trigger, as Ted would say, | 如果中国这样做或扣动扳机, 正如泰德会说, |
| 792 | that's not something | 这不是什么 |
| 793 | that the market's going to very easily forget. | 市场很容易忘记 |
| 794 | And Ted referenced what happened with OPEC | Ted提到了欧佩克的事 |
| 795 | over the long term. | 从长远来看 |
| 796 | And I think that China with the maturity | 我认为中国的成熟 |
| 797 | and the sophistication they have | 他们的精巧, |
| 798 | is weighing that very carefully, Ted. | 特德,这很重 |
| 799 | Logan, yeah, I'm glad you mentioned that. | 洛根,我很高兴你提到这一点。 |
| 800 | I mean, one of the things, I'm not a China expert. | 我的意思是,一件事,我不是中国专家。 |
| 801 | I studied China a little bit in college. | 我大学时就学过中国 |
| 802 | Had the great experience of visiting China | 有访问中国的丰富经验 |
| 803 | about 40 times over my career. | 大约40次在我的职业生涯。 |
| 804 | I'm not an expert, | 我不是专家 |
| 805 | but one thing I figured out is China is patient | 但有一件事我知道 中国是耐心的 |
| 806 | and they're strategic. | 他们有战略意义 |
| 807 | So, and the opposite of reckless. | 故曰,与鲁莽相反. |
| 808 | So I think the comments that Logan just made, | 所以,我认为洛根刚才的评论, |
| 809 | the maturity of China, the sophistication, | 中国的成熟, 精密, |
| 810 | should be added in. | 应加入。 |
| 811 | And I think it's confirmatory. | 我认为这是确认性的。 |
| 812 | Jacob, anything that I should address based on the chat? | Jacob,我有什么话要说吗? |
| 813 | No, go ahead. | 不,请说。 |
| 814 | Okay, our last topic. | 好吧,我们最后一个话题。 |
| 815 | We'd also, sorry, sorry, Ted interrupts. | 我们还会,对不起,对不起,泰德打断。 |
| 816 | We encourage the audience to participate. | 我们鼓励观众参与。 |
| 817 | One of the foundations of all of our seminars | 我们所有研讨会的基础之一 |
| 818 | and the class that Ted and I have taught for years | 我和Ted已经教了好几年的课 |
| 819 | is we love creating new knowledge. | 我们喜欢创造新知识 |
| 820 | There's industry experts that sit in our audiences | 有行业专家坐在我们的观众席上 |
| 821 | every single session. | 每场比赛 |
| 822 | Don't be shy, don't be a stranger. | 别害羞 别像个陌生人 |
| 823 | No bad questions for the debate. | 辩论没有问题 |
| 824 | Yeah, the question came up. | 是啊,问题来了。 |
| 825 | When did I first visit China? | 我第一次访问中国是什么时候? |
| 826 | First visited China, it wasn't that early. | 初访中国,未及早. |
| 827 | It was 1993. | 这是1993年。 |
| 828 | And at the time I was at University of Michigan. | 当时我在密歇根大学 |
| 829 | I was starting an institute | 我在创办一个研究所 |
| 830 | that would get the university involved | 这会让大学参与其中 |
| 831 | in what were then called transition economies | 经济转型期国家 |
| 832 | like Central Europe, Russia, South Africa, | 像中欧,俄罗斯,南非, |
| 833 | India, and of course China. | 印度,当然还有中国 |
| 834 | And we set up programs with Western companies | 我们和西方公司建立了计划 |
| 835 | that were doing work in China, | 在中国工作, |
| 836 | 例如,Cummins引擎, | |
| 837 | working with Chongqing Automotive Engine Plant, | 与重庆汽车发动机厂合作, |
| 838 | and also with state-owned enterprises | 以及国有企业 |
| 839 | like Dongfeng Motors, Second Auto. | 像东风汽车,第二汽车。 |
| 840 | And so that was 1993 and it was so exciting. | 那时是1993年,非常令人兴奋。 |
| 841 | Just unbelievably exciting and interesting. | 只是令人难以置信的刺激和有趣。 |
| 842 | And the welcome that we got and the engagement that we got | 我们的欢迎和我们的订婚 |
| 843 | was sort of amazing to me. | 对我来说有点惊人。 |
| 844 | At one point in my Ann Arbor home, | 在我安·阿博尔家的某一刻 |
| 845 | I had four of the five top senior executives | 我有五个高层主管中的四个 |
| 846 | from Dongfeng Motor around our dining table. | 东风汽车在餐桌上 |
| 847 | So I have a lot of fond memories of visits to China. | 所以我对访问中国有很多美好的回忆. |
| 848 | Of course, things have changed. | 当然,事情已经改变了。 |
| 849 | It's not as, it's a lot more, | 它不是,这是更多的, |
| 850 | I'd say that the terrain for people from the US | 我想说的是,美国人的地形 |
| 851 | is more complicated. | 更复杂。 |
| 852 | Let me just put it that way. | 这么说吧 |
| 853 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 854 | One more question, Ted, if we could entertain. | 还有一个问题,泰德,如果我们可以娱乐。 |
| 855 | Or we can save it for the end. | 或者我们可以把它保存到最后。 |
| 856 | It's about manufacturing capacities | 这是关于制造能力 |
| 857 | in other regions in Southeast Asia. | 在东南亚其他地区。 |
| 858 | Do you wanna field that now, Ted, | 泰德,你现在想出场吗? |
| 859 | or do you wanna save that for the end? | 还是你想留着它做最后呢? |
| 860 | There are, but they don't have the capacity that China has. | 有的,但他们没有中国的能力. |
| 861 | But I think the point that I would make is that, | 但我想我要说的是, |
| 862 | remember, that's not gonna be static. | 记住,那不会是静态的。 |
| 863 | Australia is gonna invest more. | 澳大利亚会投资更多 |
| 864 | Will Indonesia, Chile, the US, Canada? | 印度尼西亚,智利,美国,加拿大会吗? |
| 865 | I think the picture on capacity outside China | 我觉得中国以外的能力情况 |
| 866 | is gonna change. | 会改变的 |
| 867 | And I don't think it'll take that long. | 而且我不认为会花那么长时间。 |
| 868 | It's not easy, but five years, | 这不容易,但五年, |
| 869 | I think it'll change quite a bit. | 我觉得会改变很多 |
| 870 | Yeah, I agree. | 是的,我同意,我同意这个说法。 |
| 871 | I'll just mention that other regions, | 我只想说,其他地区, |
| 872 | so if you remember back to the diagram of the nine stages, | 所以,如果你记得回图 在九阶段, |
| 873 | you're gonna see maturity and evolution | 你会看到成熟和进化 |
| 874 | in different parts of those nine stages | 这九个阶段的不同部分 |
| 875 | broaden to different parts of the world. | 扩展到世界不同地区。 |
| 876 | But think to yourself how capital intensive | 但想一想 资本的密集程度 |
| 877 | to build something in Japan would be relative to India. | 在日本建造东西是相对印度的。 |
| 878 | That's also going to influence some decisions | 这也会影响一些决定 |
| 879 | that are made there. | 这是在那里制造的。 |
| 880 | Ted, back to you. | 泰德 回到你身边 |
| 881 | Well, let's turn to the last topic, | 那么,让我们来谈谈最后一个话题, |
| 882 | and we may end quite a bit early. | 我们可能会提早结束 |
| 883 | And I do have a bit of a quabble, I guess, with coral | 我有一个小石块,我想,与珊瑚 |
| 884 | with some of the analyses | 与一些分析 |
| 885 | of the country's individual strategies. | - 国家个别战略。 |
| 886 | But let's start with a quote from 10 days ago | 但让我们从十天前的一段话开始 |
| 887 | from Fareed Zakaria. | 来自法雷德·扎卡里娅 |
| 888 | For those of you who don't know, | 你们这些不知道的人 |
| 889 | Fareed is the host of a program on CNN | 法雷德是CNN的节目主持人 |
| 890 | called Global Public Square. | 被称为全球公共广场. |
| 891 | He's a Yale graduate. | 耶鲁大学毕业生. |
| 892 | He was on the board of trustees for Yale. | 他是耶鲁大学的董事会成员. |
| 893 | He was involved in the development | 他参与开发 |
| 894 | of the Global Network for Advanced Management. | 全球高级管理网络。 |
| 895 | Came and talked a couple of times to Yale SOM. | 来过几次跟耶鲁SOM谈话 |
| 896 | So I've gotten to know him, and I think he's really astute. | 所以我认识他 我觉得他很聪明 |
| 897 | For those of you who don't know about this particular show, | 对于你们这些不知道这个节目的人来说 |
| 898 | Global Public Square, I would recommend it. | 环球公共广场,我会推荐它。 |
| 899 | It's one of the few shows that I record every week. | 这是我每周录制的少数节目之一 |
| 900 | But his quote was, I think, instructive | 但他的引言,我认为, 很有启发性 |
| 901 | and close to being accurate. | 几乎是准确的。 |
| 902 | He says, the contest with China is structural, | 他说与中国的竞争是结构性的 |
| 903 | a rivalry between two great powers | 两个大国之间的竞争 |
| 904 | bound by mutual dependence. | 受互相依附的约束。 |
| 905 | And I put in an italics, mutual dependence. | 我把一个斜体, 互相依赖。 |
| 906 | If I were to rephrase that, | 如果换句话说 |
| 907 | I would substitute away from mutual dependence. | 我会代替彼此依赖 |
| 908 | Fareed Zakaria in parentheses there. | 法雷德・扎卡里亚,在括号里。 |
| 909 | The contest with China is structural, | 与中国的竞争是结构性的 |
| 910 | a rivalry between two great powers | 两个大国之间的竞争 |
| 911 | who are in a mutually beneficial economic relationship. | 他们有着互利的经济关系。 |
| 912 | The idea of mutual dependence seems like, | 互相依赖的想法似乎, |
| 913 | well, you're stuck in a bad marriage. | 好吧,你被困在一个糟糕的婚姻。 |
| 914 | That was Logan's sort of analogy. | 这是洛根的类比。 |
| 915 | I think we have to recognize this | 我想我们必须承认这一点 |
| 916 | is a mutually beneficial economic relationship. | 是一种互利的经济关系。 |
| 917 | So how do we see that? | 那么我们怎么看呢? |
| 918 | What's the evidence? | 有什么证据? |
| 919 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 920 | Well, China and the US are, of course, the G2. | 当然,中国和美国是二国集团。 |
| 921 | And this chart begins soon after the policy changes | 这个图表在政策改变后不久开始 |
| 922 | associated with Deng Xiaoping, 1990. | 与邓小平有关,1990年. |
| 923 | And you see the combined share of China and the US | 你看中国和美国合起来的份额 |
| 924 | starting out at about 28% of world GDP. | 起步约为世界GDP的28%. |
| 925 | Sidebar, I should note, | 侧边栏,我应该注意到, |
| 926 | you can also measure share of world GDP | 也可以测量世界GDP的比例 |
| 927 | using purchasing power parity, | 采用购买力平价, |
| 928 | and you get different numbers. | 你得到不同的数字。 |
| 929 | But this is based on nominal share in current US dollars. | 但这是按现值美元的名义份额计算的。 |
| 930 | And look what's happened since then. | 看看之后发生了什么 |
| 931 | A phenomenal increase in the share of China and the US, | 中国和美国所占份额大幅上升, |
| 932 | the G2 share. | G2股权 |
| 933 | And I've done a little bit of research on other G2s. | 我对其他G2做了一点研究。 |
| 934 | There's nothing like this. | 无有如来. |
| 935 | To get over 43% of world GDP with two countries, | 为了获得世界GDP的43%以上 与两个国家, |
| 936 | it's an amazing run. | 这是一个惊人的运行。 |
| 937 | Let's look at the next slide just to break it down | 让我们看看下一张幻灯片 来打破它 |
| 938 | between the increase for China and the increase for the US. | 中国和美国的增长之间。 |
| 939 | China started out the red line, 1990, at a really low level, | 中国开始红线,1990年 在非常低的水平, |
| 940 | but now is over, I don't know, | 但现在结束了,我不知道, |
| 941 | looks like about 70% of the US. | 看起来像大约70%的美国。 |
| 942 | And there was that period around 2020, | 而在2020年前后的这段时间里, |
| 943 | we've talked about this before, | 我们以前谈过这个 |
| 944 | there were a lot of predictions | 有很多预言 |
| 945 | that China would overtake the US. | 中国会超越美国 |
| 946 | You see that run up, but then China has flattened out. | 你看,那跑起来, 但中国已经平定了。 |
| 947 | The US share is really quite amazing. | 美国的份额真的很惊人。 |
| 948 | And it's increased in absolute terms, | 从绝对数字来看, |
| 949 | dramatically over the same time period. | 在同一时间段很显著 |
| 950 | So here, that's the evidence of the increase | 所以这里,这就是增加的证据 |
| 951 | in each country's share and aggregate output. | 占每个国家的份额和总产出。 |
| 952 | And just to restate, we've not seen anything like this. | 再说一遍,我们没看到这样的事情 |
| 953 | This is not just any old G2. | 这不只是任何老G2。 |
| 954 | This is a very special relationship. | 这是一个非常特殊的关系。 |
| 955 | Logan? | 罗根? |
| 956 | Agreed. | 同意,我同意你的话。 |
| 957 | I think with China in particular, | 我尤其认为中国 |
| 958 | their ability to manufacture at scale, | 其大规模制造的能力, |
| 959 | but also invest in innovation in robotics and manufacturing. | 但也投资于机器人和制造业的创新。 |
| 960 | We'll talk about that in the summary bullet points | 我们用简易的子弹来讨论 |
| 961 | a little bit more. | 再多一点 |
| 962 | But these are two tremendous powers that combined | 但这两个巨大的力量结合了 |
| 963 | are shaping where the world, | 正在塑造世界, |
| 964 | the direction of the world is going | 世界的走向 |
| 965 | on so many aspects of technology. | 技术的很多方面。 |
| 966 | Which is why also Ted says | 这就是为什么泰德也说 |
| 967 | it's an economically beneficial relationship. | 这是一种经济上有益的关系。 |
| 968 | And that being said, | 这么说 |
| 969 | and with the speed that everything's moving, | 随着一切的移动, |
| 970 | divorce is exceedingly costly | 离婚费用高昂 |
| 971 | and doesn't make sense economically. | 经济意义不大 |
| 972 | And it doesn't make sense for the rest of us in the world. | 而世间众生亦不思议. |
| 973 | Yeah, so I had the great fortune | 是啊,所以我有 伟大的财富 |
| 974 | of going to the University of Chicago, | 去芝加哥大学, |
| 975 | studied economics. | 学习经济学. |
| 976 | And my first year I was taught by four Nobel Prize winners. | 我第一年被四个诺贝尔奖得主教导 |
| 977 | One of them was Gary Becker. | 其中一个是加里·贝克尔. |
| 978 | And when I returned to Chicago as Dean, | 当我回到芝加哥当迪恩时 |
| 979 | ended up co-teaching with Gary Becker | 最终与加里·贝克尔共同执教 |
| 980 | for nine years, Nobel Prize winner. | 诺贝尔奖得主 |
| 981 | And we actually talked a lot about China. | 事实上,我们谈了很多关于中国的问题。 |
| 982 | And his point was, I think important. | 他的观点是,我认为很重要。 |
| 983 | He said, you know, | 他说,你知道, |
| 984 | when you think about the potential pairings | 当你想到潜在的配对 |
| 985 | between the US and other countries, | 在美国和其他国家之间, |
| 986 | China and the US are natural partners. | 中国和美国是天然伙伴。 |
| 987 | They're natural partners. | 他们是天然伴侣. |
| 988 | And it's what Logan just mentioned, | 这是洛根刚刚提到的, |
| 989 | the manufacturing, | 制造业, |
| 990 | US supply services, financial services, | 美国的供应服务,金融服务, |
| 991 | foreign direct investments. | 外国直接投资。 |
| 992 | China has become preeminent in manufacturing of many things. | 中国已成为制造许多东西的杰出国家。 |
| 993 | So this would not be the case between, | 所以这不会是介于... |
| 994 | for say, Great Britain and France | 英国和法国 |
| 995 | when you take another pair. | 当你再拿一对。 |
| 996 | Would not be the case if we paired up the US and Germany. | 如果我们把美国和德国合二为一就不会这样了 |
| 997 | US and China are natural partners. | 美国和中国是天然的伙伴。 |
| 998 | So let's go to the next slide. | 因此,让我们去下一个幻灯片。 |
| 999 | ┮硂琌и qui | |
| 1000 | This is a restatement of what, pardon me, | 这是重述什么,原谅我, |
| 1001 | I read about what objectives does China have? | 我读到中国的目标是什么? |
| 1002 | And I won't read these, | 我不会读这些, |
| 1003 | but manufacturing obviously gain leadership of the AI, | 但制造业显然获得了大赦国际的领导权, |
| 1004 | maximize influence globally. | 最大限度地发挥全球影响。 |
| 1005 | And we talked about the supply chain for semiconductors. | 我们谈到了半导体的供应链。 |
| 1006 | What are the things that you hear | 你听到的东西是什么? |
| 1007 | about the objectives of the US? | 关于美国的目标? |
| 1008 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 1009 | Trump says we've got to remain viable in manufacturing, | 特朗普说我们必须在制造业保持活力 |
| 1010 | leadership in AI, influence globally, | 在AI的领导, 影响全球, |
| 1011 | also gain control over semiconductor supply chain. | 还获得了对半导体供应链的控制。 |
| 1012 | Well, what's the missing objective? | 那么,缺少的目标是什么? |
| 1013 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 1014 | It's to continue to realize the benefits | 继续实现利益 |
| 1015 | of this historically successful G2. | 历史上成功的G2 |
| 1016 | It's so obvious once you say it, | 你一说就很明显了 |
| 1017 | but the analysis that I read, | 但我读到的分析, |
| 1018 | and I think the analysis that you read, | 我想你读到的分析, |
| 1019 | missed this fundamental point. | 错过了这个基本点。 |
| 1020 | And this is why I don't think, | 这就是为什么我不认为, |
| 1021 | going back to the specific questions, | 回到具体的问题, |
| 1022 | I don't think China is gonna pull the trigger | 我不认为中国会扣动扳机 |
| 1023 | on rare earths. | 在稀土上, |
| 1024 | I don't think the US is gonna actually set up | 我觉得美国不会真的成立 |
| 1025 | their own independent supply chain for semiconductors. | 它们的独立的半导体供应链。 |
| 1026 | Doing so would negate the likelihood | 这样做会抵消可能性 |
| 1027 | of continuing to realize the benefits | 惠益的实现 |
| 1028 | of this historically successful G2. | 历史上成功的G2 |
| 1029 | So Logan, do you have any comments on this | 洛根,你有什么意见吗? |
| 1030 | before we go to implications and conclusions? | 在讨论影响和结论之前? |
| 1031 | I'll just say that in concomitant | 我就这么说吧 |
| 1032 | with what you're pointing out right now is that, | 你现在指出的是, |
| 1033 | yes, there will be an effort to espouse | 是的,将努力支持 |
| 1034 | the domestic semiconductor industry | 国内半导体工业 |
| 1035 | in both of the G2 countries, | 在两个国家, |
| 1036 | and there will be initiatives to continue to invest | 将继续投资 |
| 1037 | in the private side and partner | 私人和伴侣 |
| 1038 | with publicly traded companies. | 与公开交易的公司。 |
| 1039 | Having those in isolation doesn't make sense | 孤立的人没有道理 |
| 1040 | on many dimensions. | 在许多方面。 |
| 1041 | And so them moving together in unison | 所以他们一起行动 |
| 1042 | makes more financial sense and economic sense | 更具有金融意义和经济意义 |
| 1043 | for all parties involved. | 供有关各方使用。 |
| 1044 | And yeah, let's jump to the conclusions, Ted, | 是啊,让我们跳到结论,泰德, |
| 1045 | and wrap up. | 并结束。 |
| 1046 | So to sum up, number one, | 总之,第一, |
| 1047 | we should not expect two independent supply chains | 我们不应该期望两个独立的供应链 |
| 1048 | or semis. | 或半个。 |
| 1049 | We don't expect China to severely restrict | 我们不指望中国会严格限制 |
| 1050 | rare earth minerals. | 稀土矿物。 |
| 1051 | We've covered the beneficial relationship | 我们谈了好关系 |
| 1052 | between US and China. | 美国和中国之间。 |
| 1053 | We'd expect continued benefits from cooperation, | 我们期待继续从合作中获益, |
| 1054 | and we're not surprised by the one-year truce. | 我们并不惊讶一年的停战协议 |
| 1055 | You might expect China and the US to sort of muddle along. | 你可能会期望中国和美国 一起混战。 |
| 1056 | There'll be rivalry, there'll be frictions, | 会有竞争,有摩擦, |
| 1057 | but the relationship will continue. | 但关系会继续下去 |
| 1058 | The one question, you know, if that's our hypothesis, | 一个问题,你知道, 如果这是我们的假设, |
| 1059 | as many of you know, when we, Logan and I taught, | 你们中许多人都知道, 当我们,洛根和我教, |
| 1060 | we would identify hypotheses, | 我们会找出假设, |
| 1061 | and then we would consider alternative hypotheses. | 然后再考虑其他假设 |
| 1062 | Well, number four is, I guess, our hypothesis. | 第四个是,我想,我们的假设。 |
| 1063 | We expect the countries to continue to cooperate | 我们期望各国继续合作 |
| 1064 | and realize these economic benefits. | 并实现这些经济利益。 |
| 1065 | The alternative hypothesis, | 另一种假设, |
| 1066 | which we should, I think, flag and identify and consider | 我认为,我们应该标出并识别和考虑 |
| 1067 | is the nature of those benefits changing. | 这些利益的性质正在发生变化。 |
| 1068 | Is there some major change going forward | 未来是否会有重大改变 |
| 1069 | that will prove us wrong? | 那会证明我们错了吗? |
| 1070 | And I think the thing that I would point to | 我觉得我想说的是 |
| 1071 | based on the work that Logan and I have done is AI. | 根据洛根和我完成的工作,是AI。 |
| 1072 | AI might be changing the stakes | AI可能会改变赌注 |
| 1073 | in a way that China and the US, | 中国和美国, |
| 1074 | individually and together, cannot cooperate. | 单独和共同地不能合作。 |
| 1075 | If you view AI as so fundamental | 如果你认为AI如此重要 |
| 1076 | to the way societies and economies | 影响社会和经济的方式 |
| 1077 | are gonna operate in the future, | 将来要动手术 |
| 1078 | and Neil Shen, who's the founder of Yale Center Beijing, | 还有耶鲁北京中心创始人尼尔·沈 |
| 1079 | basically told me in the class six years ago, | 基本上六年前在班上告诉我 |
| 1080 | that's what he expected. | 这是他期望的。 |
| 1081 | If that's the case, then maybe each country will say, | 如果是这样,那么也许每个国家都会说, |
| 1082 | we cannot cooperate the way we used to, | 我们不能像以前那样合作 |
| 1083 | we can't muddle through, | 我们不能乱跑 |
| 1084 | because the competition for AI, for leadership in AI, | 因为对AI的竞争 对AI的领导, |
| 1085 | is so critically important, | 至关紧要 |
| 1086 | even to the point of saying existential. | 甚至到说存在。 |
| 1087 | A lot of this, I think, this alternative hypothesis | 我认为,很多这样的假设 |
| 1088 | depends on how you think about AI. | 取决于你对AI的看法 |
| 1089 | Is it just another tool and innovation | 它只是另一种工具和创新 |
| 1090 | that's gonna reduce costs? | 这会降低成本? |
| 1091 | Or is it, with generative AI, | 还是有遗传性人工智能 |
| 1092 | something that's more fundamental | 更根本的东西 |
| 1093 | and is a potential substitute | 并且是一个潜在的替代品 |
| 1094 | for human intelligence in all ways? | 人类的智力在所有方面? |
| 1095 | So those are, right now, we're on number four. | 所以,现在,我们是在第四。 |
| 1096 | That's our hypothesis. | 这是我们的假设。 |
| 1097 | But we have to acknowledge the alternative hypothesis | 但是我们必须承认另一种假设 |
| 1098 | that maybe things will change going into the future | 也许未来会有所改变 |
| 1099 | 因为AI。 | |
| 1100 | Logan, last words? | 罗根,最后一句话? |
| 1101 | Last words involving number five. | 最后一句话涉及第五。 |
| 1102 | I would say, in previous discussions, | 我想说,在以前的讨论中, |
| 1103 | we have talked about where the value capture lies in AI, | 我们谈了AI的价值观 |
| 1104 | and I think that's also going to dictate | 我觉得这也会决定 |
| 1105 | some of the reaction that we're gonna see from the G2. | 一些反应,我们会看到 从G2。 |
| 1106 | Let me frame that. | 让我来画画 |
| 1107 | When we talk about value capture, | 当我们谈论价值捕捉 |
| 1108 | does the value capture, for me, for example, | 例如,对于我来说, |
| 1109 | 例如来自Anthropic的Claude用户 | |
| 1110 | do I realize more value | 我意识到更多的价值 |
| 1111 | than they're gaining from my use of it? | 而不是他们从我这里得到的? |
| 1112 | That would be more used to the end user, to me. | 这样对最终用户来说,对我更有用。 |
| 1113 | Or are they capturing the value, the firm, | 还是他们能捕捉到价值, |
| 1114 | or are there larger players or other players? | 或者有没有更大的玩家或其他玩家? |
| 1115 | And so, when you think about AI | 所以,当你想到AI的时候 |
| 1116 | and where it's going, where it's moving, | 和它的去向, 它移动, |
| 1117 | think about in your mind | 在你的脑海里思考 |
| 1118 | which party is capturing most value. | 哪个方能捕捉到最大的价值 |
| 1119 | Is it the firms, the tech firms that are creating the LLMs | 是那些创建LLMS的公司还是技术公司 |
| 1120 | or creating the applications? | 还是创建应用程序? |
| 1121 | Is it actually democratized more towards the end user? | 它是否实际上更加民主化地走向终端用户? |
| 1122 | And so, that's going to also illuminate | 所以,这也将会照亮 |
| 1123 | the direction of the discussion. | 讨论的方向。 |
| 1124 | And I just want to tack that on at the end, | 我只是想在结尾敲击, |
| 1125 | and we'll talk about that again in the future, I'm sure. | 我们以后再谈这个,我相信 |
| 1126 | Let's go ahead and click ahead. | 让我们继续点击。 |
| 1127 | Hold on a second. | 等一会 |
| 1128 | Ah! | 摆! |
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