2024美国总统大选赢了什么？输了什么？耶鲁政治学教授预测政
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | Hello, welcome everybody. | 你好,欢迎大家。 |
| 0:05 | And good morning if you're joining us from the US. | 早上好,如果你要从美国加入我们。 |
| 0:09 | Good evening | 边 |
| 0:09 | if you're joining us from China or Asia, and I guess good day if you're joining us from | 如果你从中国或亚洲加入我们,我想今天会很高兴 |
| 0:17 | Europe or elsewhere. | 欧洲或其他地方。 |
| 0:20 | Let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
| 0:23 | My name is Devin Lau. | 我叫刘德文 |
| 0:24 | I am the Associate Director | 我是副局长 |
| 0:26 | for Yale Center Beijing, and I will be hosting today's talk, which I'm sure you guys are | 我将主持今天的演讲 我相信你们是 |
| 0:32 | well aware will be a few reflections on the 2024 elections in the US. | 2024年美国大选将引发一些反响。 |
展开字幕全文（412 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello, welcome everybody. | 你好,欢迎大家。 |
| 2 | And good morning if you're joining us from the US. | 早上好,如果你要从美国加入我们。 |
| 3 | Good evening | 边 |
| 4 | if you're joining us from China or Asia, and I guess good day if you're joining us from | 如果你从中国或亚洲加入我们,我想今天会很高兴 |
| 5 | Europe or elsewhere. | 欧洲或其他地方。 |
| 6 | Let's get started. | 让我们开始吧。 |
| 7 | My name is Devin Lau. | 我叫刘德文 |
| 8 | I am the Associate Director | 我是副局长 |
| 9 | for Yale Center Beijing, and I will be hosting today's talk, which I'm sure you guys are | 我将主持今天的演讲 我相信你们是 |
| 10 | well aware will be a few reflections on the 2024 elections in the US. | 2024年美国大选将引发一些反响。 |
| 11 | And I see that | 我看见了 |
| 12 | many of you have already started turning on your webcams. | 许多人已经开始打开你的摄像头。 |
| 13 | For those of you that are able | 为你们中能 |
| 14 | to turn on your webcams, that would be great if you could just so we can see some faces. | 打开你的网络摄像头, 那太好了,如果你可以 只是让我们可以看到一些面孔。 |
| 15 | Let me introduce the speaker and we'll go straight into our topic today. | 让我介绍一下发言者,我们今天直接谈谈我们的主题。 |
| 16 | So Professor | 老师 |
| 17 | Alan Gerber is Sterling Professor of Political Science, as well as Economics and Statistics | Alan Gerber是斯特林政治学教授 以及经济学和统计学教授 |
| 18 | and Data Science at Yale. | 和数据科学在耶鲁。 |
| 19 | And for those of you that don't know, Sterling Professor is | 而对于你们这些不知道的人,斯特林教授是 |
| 20 | the highest named professorship at Yale. | 是耶鲁大学最有名的教授 |
| 21 | So happy to have Alan join us here. | 很高兴艾伦加入我们 |
| 22 | He's also | 他也一样 |
| 23 | the Director of the Institution for Social and Policy Studies and his current research | 社会与政策研究所所长及其目前的研究 |
| 24 | focuses on the political economy of evidence production and use in public policy and organizations. | 重点是公共政策和组织中证据生产和使用的政治经济学。 |
| 25 | He's published extensively on the application of experimental methods to the study of campaign | 他广泛发表关于应用实验方法研究运动 |
| 26 | communications. | 通讯。 |
| 27 | And he's also designed and performed experimental evaluations of many | 他还设计并进行了实验性评估 |
| 28 | different political communications programs, both partisan and nonpartisan in nature. | 不同的政治传播方案, 无论是党派还是无党派。 |
| 29 | His | 其语 |
| 30 | book, of course, on field experiments that he co-authored, Dawn Green, is a widely used | 当然,关于现场实验的书 他共同撰写,黎明格林,是一个广泛使用 |
| 31 | resource for researchers seeking to apply field experimental methods to problems in the social | 为寻求将实地实验方法应用于社会问题的研究人员提供的资源 |
| 32 | sciences. | 科学。 |
| 33 | And he's published so many books and articles that I won't even go through | 他出版了这么多的书和文章 我甚至不会通过 |
| 34 | the trouble of naming all of them. | 很难给所有人取名 |
| 35 | He's also a graduate of Yale as an undergrad and received | 他也是耶鲁大学的毕业生 毕业后接受 |
| 36 | his PhD from MIT. | 他是麻省理工学院的博士 |
| 37 | And he's extremely qualified to speak about our topic today. | 他非常有资格 谈论我们今天的主题。 |
| 38 | And so I'm | ┮и琌 |
| 39 | to turn things over to him now. | 现在把事情交给他 |
| 40 | Okay, Devin, thank you very much. | 好的,德文,非常感谢 |
| 41 | And thank you, everyone. | 谢谢各位 |
| 42 | I'm going to be going through | 我将经历 |
| 43 | some slides to sort of provide you a bit of a background and some of my reflections on the | 一些幻灯片可以给你一些背景和一些我的思考 |
| 44 | election, some of the identify some issues that we might want to talk about in our question and | 在选举时,有些问题找出一些问题,我们不妨在提问中讨论。 |
| 45 | give you a sense of how social scientists analyze elections. | 告诉你社会科学家是如何分析选举的 |
| 46 | And I'm not always sure what | 我并不总是知道什么 |
| 47 | topics are of greatest interest to different audiences, but I'll try to only spend maybe 20 | 话题对不同的观众最感兴趣 但我会尽量只花20块 |
| 48 | to 25 minutes on my remarks so that there's plenty of time left for me to try and answer | 说到25分钟 这样我有足够的时间回答 |
| 49 | questions that you might have. | 你可能会有的问题。 |
| 50 | So let me just get started now. | 让我现在就开始吧 |
| 51 | I'm going to talk about | 我要谈谈 |
| 52 | four things. | 四谛. |
| 53 | I'm going to focus on these four things. | 专注此四事. |
| 54 | How the economic context for the | 经济背景如何 |
| 55 | 2024 election, how the Biden administration, how the economy performed during the Biden | 2024年选举 拜登政府 拜登时期的经济表现 |
| 56 | administration does a good job of explaining what happened in the American election. | 政府在解释美国大选中发生的事情方面做得很好。 |
| 57 | It's also the | 这也是 |
| 58 | case that a similar pattern held throughout the Western democracies over the last year or two. | 西方民主国家在过去一年或两年内也存在类似情况。 |
| 59 | Then I'm going to talk a little bit about other factors in addition to the economy, | 然后我要谈谈经济以外的其他因素 |
| 60 | the candidate, candidate quality, and the election outcome. | 候选人、候选人素质和选举结果。 |
| 61 | So candidate quality | 所以候选人的质量 |
| 62 | just refers to things like people's assessments of the candidate's likability, | 仅指人们评估候选人的可憎性, |
| 63 | personal characteristics, qualifications for office, and then the issues. | 个人特征,任职资格,然后是问题。 |
| 64 | So in addition to | 所以除了这个以外 |
| 65 | being a retrospective evaluation of the economy and deciding whether or not the incumbent | 对经济进行回顾性评估,并决定现任者是否 |
| 66 | administration deserved another term in office, there were issues. | 行政当局值得连任,但存在一些问题。 |
| 67 | I'm going to briefly discuss | 我要简短讨论一下 |
| 68 | some of the issues that voters were focused on in 2024. | 2024年选民关注的一些问题. |
| 69 | And then I'm going to spend a few minutes | 然后我要花几分钟时间 |
| 70 | just reviewing a little bit of data on public opinion toward China and talk a little bit about | 仅仅回顾一下关于中国舆论的一点数据 并谈一下 |
| 71 | the implications of the 2024 election results given patterns in public opinion. | 2024年选举结果在舆论中的影响。 |
| 72 | I will warn | 我会警告你 |
| 73 | everyone in advance that I looked up some stuff about China and public opinion. | 大家先看一看中国和舆论 |
| 74 | I'm not a | 我不是一个 |
| 75 | I do the things that Devin described. | 我做德文描述的事 |
| 76 | I design experimental studies and do more statistical | 我设计实验研究 做更多的统计 |
| 77 | analysis of political science things. | 分析政治学的东西。 |
| 78 | And I'm mostly focused on American domestic stuff. | 我主要关注的是美国国内的东西。 |
| 79 | Okay, so on the subject of the economy and the presidential election, here's the, | 好吧,所以关于经济和总统选举,这里, |
| 80 | if you had to look at just one chart to try and figure out what would happen in a presidential | 如果你只看一张图表 就能找出总统的下场 |
| 81 | election, this is probably the chart you would want to start with. | 可能这就是你想要的图表 |
| 82 | And so let me just describe | 让我来描述一下 |
| 83 | what's on this chart. | 这张图上有什么 |
| 84 | The y-axis is incumbent presidential vote share. | Y轴是现任总统的选票份额. |
| 85 | So in the 2024 election, | 因此在2024年的选举中, |
| 86 | this would be the Democratic Party because the Democratic Party was in power during the | 这是民主党,因为民主党执政时期 |
| 87 | previous four years. | 四年前的一次调查 |
| 88 | American presidential elections are a fixed term of four years. | 美国总统选举是固定的四年任期. |
| 89 | So | 这么说 |
| 90 | you've got four years of Democrats or four years of Republicans, and this is their vote share. | 你们有四年的民主党人 或四年的共和党人 这就是他们的选票份额 |
| 91 | And the x-axis is how the economy is growing. | 而x轴则是经济如何增长. |
| 92 | So one measure of growth is annualized real per | 因此,一个衡量增长的尺度是年化实际每 |
| 93 | capita growth in the election year. | 选举年度人均增长. |
| 94 | And in a typical year, that would be something around, | 在一个典型的年份, 这将是周围的东西, |
| 95 | in America, not in China. | 在美国,不是在中国。 |
| 96 | In China, it would be faster in the last period, last few decades. | 在中国,在过去几十年里,速度会更快。 |
| 97 | It | 这个 |
| 98 | might be out here or maybe here now. | 可能在这里,或现在在这里。 |
| 99 | But in the United States, it's around here. | 但在美国,它就在附近. |
| 100 | It's around two | 大约两个 |
| 101 | percentage points, something like that. | 百分点,类似的东西。 |
| 102 | And so if you have a typical year of economic growth when | 所以,如果你有一个典型的经济增长年 当 |
| 103 | the election is being held, then what you would find is that you would typically see that the | 你就会发现你通常会看到 |
| 104 | incumbent party would get a little bit over 50 percent, so somewhere between 50 and 55 percent, | 现任党会得到50%多一点 所以在50%到55%之间 |
| 105 | which is enough to win. | 足以赢得胜利。 |
| 106 | So as you would guess from this chart, most of the time a presidential | 所以你从这张图表中猜到 多数时候是总统 |
| 107 | incumbent party running for reelection, if the incumbent is running for reelection, they tend | 现任政党竞选连任,如果现任政党竞选连任,他们倾向于 |
| 108 | to win two times out of three. | 以2次赢得3次比赛。 |
| 109 | And that's about half the time an incumbent is running for reelection. | 这大约是现任者竞选连任的一半时间. |
| 110 | So you're seeing elections sort of in here. | 所以,你看到选举 有点在这里。 |
| 111 | In 2020, it was a bad year of economic growth. | 2020年是经济增长不好的一年. |
| 112 | That was the year of the global pandemic. | 这是全球流行的一年。 |
| 113 | Economic growth was very low. | 经济增长非常低。 |
| 114 | Here is what Donald Trump got | 这是唐纳德·特朗普得到的 |
| 115 | of the two-party vote in 2020. | 2020年两党投票结果. |
| 116 | That wasn't enough to win. | 那还不够赢 |
| 117 | It was 48 percent or so of the vote. | 这是大约48%的选票。 |
| 118 | That was not enough to win. | 这不足以赢得胜利。 |
| 119 | And you can see that the relationship is very tight as these sort of | 你可以看到,关系非常紧密 就像这种 |
| 120 | things go for a single variable. | 单变数就变了 |
| 121 | And so this is a very strong regularity. | 所以这是一个非常强的规律。 |
| 122 | It's also the case | 也一样 |
| 123 | that inflation over the term in office is negatively correlated with the vote share. | 在任职期间的通货膨胀与投票份额呈负相关。 |
| 124 | The best predictor is the aggregate inflation experience. | 最好的预测者是通货膨胀的总体情况。 |
| 125 | So prices go up a lot during your term. | 在你任职期间价格涨了很多 |
| 126 | That's a very large drag on your vote share. | 这对你的选票来说是一大拖拉 |
| 127 | The United States has not experienced inflation like | 美国没有经历过通货膨胀 |
| 128 | experienced over the last four years in the last two or three, two plus decades. | 过去二、三、二、四年期间的经验。 |
| 129 | So most of the | 所以大多数 |
| 130 | people who are around and voting, they don't remember a period or the older people maybe, | 周围的人和投票, 他们不记得一个时期 或老年人也许, |
| 131 | but the younger people don't remember a period of inflation like we experienced in the United States | 但年轻人不记得有一段通货膨胀时期 就像我们在美国的经历 |
| 132 | over the last four years. | 过去四年来, |
| 133 | So it's a little bit of a question as to how they're going to respond | 所以,这是一个小问题 关于他们要如何回应 |
| 134 | to that. | 对这个。 |
| 135 | But based on the statistics of how people have responded in the past, you would | 但根据过去人们的反应统计 你会 |
| 136 | expect this to be a very big problem for the incumbent party. | 希望这对现任党来说是个大问题 |
| 137 | And so what was the economic | 那么,什么是经济 |
| 138 | context for the election in November of 2024? | 2024年11月选举的背景? |
| 139 | High inflation over the previous four years, | 过去四年的高通货膨胀率, |
| 140 | moderate economic growth in the inflation year. | 通货膨胀年度经济适度增长。 |
| 141 | And so what does that mean for how the incumbent | 那对现任者意味着什么? |
| 142 | party, the Democrats are likely to do in November? | 民主党很可能在11月举行? |
| 143 | So we can say that this does not look like a great | 这样我们就可以说,这看起来不 一个伟大的 |
| 144 | record. | 记录。 |
| 145 | It looks okay, but not great. | 看起来不错,但并不伟大。 |
| 146 | We can do a lot better, be much more precise in our predictions | 我们可以做得更好 更精确的预测 |
| 147 | using the data on presidential elections and conducting some statistical analysis. | 利用总统选举数据并进行一些统计分析。 |
| 148 | And this | 还有这个 |
| 149 | is the sort of thing that economists and political scientists do. | 经济学家和政治学家都这样做。 |
| 150 | They construct statistical models to | 他们构建统计模型 |
| 151 | assess how different economic and political factors affect vote shares. | 评估不同的经济和政治因素如何影响投票权。 |
| 152 | And so here's an | 所以这是 |
| 153 | example of such a model. | 这种模式的例子。 |
| 154 | I'm not going to go into the details of all of how this is done, | 我不打算详谈这一切是如何进行的, |
| 155 | but it's basically a simple regression analysis of Democratic vote share. | 但它基本上是一个简单的回归分析 民主党的选票份额。 |
| 156 | So this is the | 所以这是 |
| 157 | Democratic share of the two-party vote on a number of political variables and then economic growth | 两党在一些政治变数上的民主份额,然后是经济增长 |
| 158 | in the election year, inflation over the course of the term, and then some measure of quarters | 期间的通货膨胀,然后是一定的季度 |
| 159 | where economic growth was exceptionally strong. | 经济增长特别强劲。 |
| 160 | And then you perform this statistical analysis | 然后进行统计分析 |
| 161 | on the previous hundred years of presidential elections, and then you get a model. | 在前百年的总统选举中, 然后你得到一个模型。 |
| 162 | And then | 礛 |
| 163 | you can use that model to predict how, under the current elections conditions, you would expect | 你可以使用这个模式来预测,在目前的选举条件下,你如何期待 |
| 164 | the Democratic party to do. | 民主党必须这样做。 |
| 165 | And so let's take a look at what this means when we apply it | 所以让我们看看这是什么意思 当我们应用它 |
| 166 | to the election in 2024. | 参加2024年大选. |
| 167 | Okay, here we are. | 好了,我们到了。 |
| 168 | So in the current election, we would put in the numbers | 因此,在本届选举中,我们将把数字 |
| 169 | for this year's growth, and that's 1.97%. | 今年的增长是1.97%。 |
| 170 | That's per capita annualized GDP growth. | 这就是人均年均GDP增长. |
| 171 | You would put in this year's inflation, actually the experience of the last four years average | 你会把今年的通货膨胀, 实际的经验 在过去4年的平均 |
| 172 | inflation, and that was 4.54%. | 通货膨胀率是4.54%。 |
| 173 | That is much higher than the typical experience, which I think this is | 这比典型的经验要高得多 我认为这是 |
| 174 | over the last 50 years of presidential elections that averaged 2.7%. | 过去50年的总统选举平均为2.7%。 |
| 175 | And if you put all those | 如果你把这些 |
| 176 | numbers in and just sort of add it all up, 47.4 plus 0.71 times the growth rate minus 0.61 times | 数字加起来,47.4加0.71倍的增长率减0.61倍 |
| 177 | the inflation rate plus 0.87 times the number of good quarters, you would end up with a predicted | 通胀率加上0.87倍好区数,你最终会得到预测 |
| 178 | Democratic vote share of 49.5% of the two-party vote, and the actual election outcome was 49%. | 民主投票占两党选票的49.5%,实际选举结果为49%. |
| 179 | So this is, I mean, statistics don't usually work this well, and this model doesn't usually | 所以,我的意思是,统计 通常不工作这么好, 这个模型通常不 |
| 180 | predict this well. | 预言如此。 |
| 181 | But what we saw in 2024 was pretty much exactly what you would expect. | 但我们在2024年所看到的 几乎就是你们所期望的 |
| 182 | You just looked at the economic context. | 你只是看看经济背景。 |
| 183 | So typically this model misses by a few percentage | 通常这个模型少了几个百分点 |
| 184 | points, and it misses because there are other things that determine election outcomes, | 因为还有其他事情决定选举结果, |
| 185 | not just the economic context, though I think the economic context is extremely powerful, | 不只是经济背景 尽管我认为经济背景非常强大 |
| 186 | extremely powerful factor. | 极其强大的因素。 |
| 187 | And sometimes the parties have differential issue appeal, | 有时双方会有不同问题上诉, |
| 188 | like some parties, or sometimes one party is better aligned than the other party with | 或有时一方比另一方更适合 |
| 189 | public opinion. | 舆论. |
| 190 | Sometimes you have a very bad candidate, or very, not bad necessarily, | 有时你有一个非常糟糕的候选人, 或者非常,不一定坏, |
| 191 | but an unpopular candidate. | 却是一个不受欢迎的候选人。 |
| 192 | Sometimes one party runs a better campaign. | 有时一个政党开展更好的运动。 |
| 193 | So those are other factors | 所以这些都是其他因素 |
| 194 | that might lead to differences in how the election turns out. | 这可能导致选举结果的差异。 |
| 195 | It's also the case that | 这也是这样 |
| 196 | you know, it's just a simple model. | 你知道,这只是一个简单的模型。 |
| 197 | And so there may be reasons why in any given election | 因此,在任何一次选举中,都可能有理由 |
| 198 | the incumbent party is held more or less responsible for the economic performance, | 现任一方对经济业绩或多或少负有责任, |
| 199 | and that's something that's not captured in the model. | 模型里没有这个 |
| 200 | That's not another variable in the model. | 这不是模型中的另一个变量。 |
| 201 | One might wonder, what if it were the case that economic conditions were a little different? | 人们可能会怀疑,如果经济条件稍有不同,怎么办? |
| 202 | So | 这么说 |
| 203 | example, maybe the economic conditions were more typical. | 例如,经济条件也许更典型。 |
| 204 | What if it were the case that Joe Biden, | 如果乔·拜登是这样的 |
| 205 | who was the president, was able to continue on and did not decide that he would step aside | 身为总统,能够继续工作,没有决定让总统离开 |
| 206 | due to all the concerns that people had, and I guess that he might have had also, | 由于人们的担心, 我想他也可能有, |
| 207 | that he was able to run a vigorous re-election campaign. | 他能够进行激烈的连任竞选。 |
| 208 | Well, when an incumbent runs for | 那么,当一个现任者竞选 |
| 209 | re-election, that is associated with a boost in the president's party's vote share. | 连选连任,这与推动总统的选票份额有关. |
| 210 | And so if we had had Joe Biden running for re-election, and again, as a typical incumbent | 所以如果我们让乔·拜登竞选连任 并再次作为典型的现任 |
| 211 | that means a vigorous person who feels capable of taking on the office for another four years. | 也就是说,一个充满活力的人,觉得他有能力再上任四年。 |
| 212 | If those things had been in place, then if we had had a normal economy, say not the big inflation | 如果那些东西已经到位, 那么如果我们有 一个正常的经济, |
| 213 | and an incumbent president running for re-election, which is typically the case after a first term | 以及一名现任总统竞选连任,这通常是在第一任期之后 |
| 214 | in power, then the Democrats would probably have won. | 在执政期间,民主党可能获胜。 |
| 215 | So that would have been enough. | 那就足够了 |
| 216 | That's the kind of thing, because America typically re-elects its incumbents, | 就是这样 因为美国通常会重新选举它的现任者 |
| 217 | and that would have been enough. | 这样就够了 |
| 218 | So the economy caused somewhat of a drag, a 1.3% drag on the | 因此,经济造成了一些拖累, 拖累1.3% |
| 219 | vote share, and the fact that you didn't have an incumbent running for re-election, that also | 投票份额, 以及你没有现任竞选连任, |
| 220 | caused a drag, enough to cause the election to go to the Republicans, probably. | 造成一个拖累, 足以导致选举 向共和党,可能。 |
| 221 | One other factor about these models is you can use them to sort of benchmark candidates and | 关于这些模型的另一个因素是 你可以用它们来排序 基准候选人和 |
| 222 | campaigns. | 运动。 |
| 223 | And one thing, if you went back and looked at 2016 and 2020, the actual Democratic | 还有一件事,如果你回头看看2016年和2020年, 真正的民主党 |
| 224 | vote was greater than the predicted vote. | 投票比预想的多。 |
| 225 | And in those elections, the Republican candidate for | 在这些选举中,共和党候选人 |
| 226 | president was Donald Trump. | 总统是唐纳德·特朗普. |
| 227 | And one possible explanation for the performance of the Democrats | 对民主党的表现可能有一个解释 |
| 228 | in 2016 and 2020, which again, exceeded what you would have expected given economic fundamentals, | 2016年和2020年,这再次超过了你预期的经济基础, |
| 229 | is that they were facing a candidate who was not a good candidate. | 他们遭遇了一个不称职的候选人。 |
| 230 | And again, that people, | 再说一遍,那些人, |
| 231 | all things equal, were not super excited about Donald Trump per se. | 对唐纳德·特朗普本身 并非太兴奋 |
| 232 | They voted Republican | 他们投票给共和党 |
| 233 | for all sorts of reasons, but not necessarily because of what the candidate's personal qualities | 但不一定因为候选人的个人素质 |
| 234 | were contributing. | 正在贡献。 |
| 235 | And let me just sort of discuss that now in a little bit more detail. | 现在让我再详细讨论一下 |
| 236 | Candidate quality. | 考生素质. |
| 237 | So the first thing I discussed was the economic context. | 所以我讨论的第一件事是经济背景。 |
| 238 | And the economic context | 经济背景 |
| 239 | was, I would say, somewhat favorable to the Republicans. | 我想说,对共和党有点好 |
| 240 | So that's sort of your starting | 所以这是你的开始 |
| 241 | point. | 点。 |
| 242 | But what about the candidates? | 候选人呢? |
| 243 | Maybe if one party had an exceptionally popular and exciting | 也许如果一个派对特别受欢迎和兴奋 |
| 244 | candidate, that might overcome that natural disadvantage. | 候选人,这可能会克服 自然的劣势。 |
| 245 | Was that the case? | 是这样吗? |
| 246 | Was there a | 有没有一个 |
| 247 | real differential between the candidates and their popularity? | 候选人与受欢迎程度之间的真正差别? |
| 248 | Or more generally, | 或者更笼统地说, |
| 249 | if you were to think about the election, would you say that the Republicans won because Trump is | 如果你考虑一下选举 你会说共和党获胜是因为特朗普 |
| 250 | just a very, very popular person, and it's very hard to overcome Trump's appeal? | 只是一个非常非常受欢迎的人,而且很难克服特朗普的吸引力? |
| 251 | The answer is | 答案是,我们... |
| 252 | that that's not the case. | 事实并非如此。 |
| 253 | So again, there are some people who are extremely excited about Donald | 再说一遍,有些人对唐纳德非常兴奋 |
| 254 | Trump. | 特朗普报. |
| 255 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 256 | But if you think about the broad public, Donald Trump is generally not an | 但是,如果你想到广大公众,唐纳德·特朗普一般不是一个 |
| 257 | especially popular person as candidate for, and his performance as president was, while he was in | 特别受欢迎的人 作为候选人, 和他作为总统的表现, 当他是在 |
| 258 | office, was not unusually highly rated. | 办公室,没有异常的高度评价。 |
| 259 | In fact, if you take a look, this is just an example of this. | 事实上,如果你看看,这只是一个例子。 |
| 260 | Putting Donald Trump in historical context, his presidential approval ratings were | 将唐纳德·特朗普置于历史背景之下,他的总统批准率是 |
| 261 | the lowest of any post-war U.S. president. | 是战后美国总统中最低的 |
| 262 | If you think about his personal favorability | 如果你考虑他个人的喜好 |
| 263 | and Harris's personal favorability, one of the striking features of the candidates over the last | 和哈里斯的个人喜好, 候选人的显著特征之一 在过去 |
| 264 | few elections is that they tend to do poorly on favorability ratings. | 很少有选举是他们往往在优待评级方面表现不佳。 |
| 265 | So | 这么说 |
| 266 | this is the question. | 这就是问题所在。 |
| 267 | You get asked a question by a polling agency, something like, | 你被一个民调机构问了个问题 比如 |
| 268 | as I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people. | 当我读到每个名字时 请说,如果你对这些人有好坏的看法 |
| 269 | If you look at Trump and Harris, Trump was net negative eight. | 如果你看看特朗普和哈里斯,特朗普是净负八. |
| 270 | So this means those people who | 这就是说那些 |
| 271 | said they had a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion exceeded the number who said that they | 说他们的意见有点或非常不满意 超过他们说的人数 |
| 272 | had a very or somewhat favorable opinion by eight percentage points. | 有八个百分点的好评 |
| 273 | Here's Harris coming | 哈里斯来了 |
| 274 | in there at negative two. | 在负2。 |
| 275 | Negative two is also a bad number. | 负2也是坏数字. |
| 276 | What we had in 2024 was, again, | 在2024年,我们得到了,再次, |
| 277 | I'm not giving any value judgment personally. | 我不会给任何价值判断 个人。 |
| 278 | I'm just saying how the public was evaluating | 我只是说大众怎么评价 |
| 279 | these candidates according to favorability or unfavorability. | 根据优待或不优待这些候选人。 |
| 280 | According to these statistics, | 根据这些统计数据, |
| 281 | Trump was net unfavorable eight percentage points, but Harris was also net unfavorable | 特朗普是净不讨好 8个百分点,但哈里斯也是净不讨好 |
| 282 | by two percentage points. | 增加两个百分点。 |
| 283 | And if you were to compare this to, again, if I had more time, | 如果你再拿这个来比 如果我有更多的时间 |
| 284 | I'd go through the historical numbers. | 我会查一下历史数字 |
| 285 | If you looked historically, these are low favorability | 如果你从史上看,这些都不太受欢迎 |
| 286 | ratings. | 收视率。 |
| 287 | So if you were to put Trump and Harris into historical context, until the last few | 所以如果你把特朗普和哈里斯 放在历史背景,直到最后几个 |
| 288 | elections, you did not see people with negative numbers. | 你没有看到有负数的人。 |
| 289 | And if you look historically, since the | 如果你看历史,从 |
| 290 | over the last 50 years, the candidates with negative numbers were George Wallace, who was | 过去50年来,负数的候选人是乔治·华莱士。 |
| 291 | a failed third party candidate, Barry Goldwater, who was the Republican candidate for president | 一个失败的第三方候选人 Barry Goldwater 是共和党总统候选人 |
| 292 | in 1964 and lost in a landslide. | 1964年在山体滑坡中失利. |
| 293 | Senator McGovern, George McGovern, again, negative | 麦高文参议员,乔治麦高文, 又是负面的 |
| 294 | or close to negative. | 或接近负数。 |
| 295 | He was about even, and that was enough for him to lose the 1972 election by | 他几乎扯平了 这足以让他失去1972年的选举 |
| 296 | a landslide. | 山体滑坡。 |
| 297 | And then John Kerry, who lost to George Bush. | 后来约翰·克里输给了乔治·布什. |
| 298 | So these are negative candidate | 这些是负面候选人 |
| 299 | assessments. | 评估。 |
| 300 | Maybe Trump, in terms of favorability, a little more negative than Harris, | 也许特朗普,在偏好方面 比哈里斯更消极一点 |
| 301 | which might have been enough to offset somewhat the economic advantage that Donald Trump would | 可能足以抵消唐纳德·特朗普的经济利益 |
| 302 | have experienced. | 有过经历。 |
| 303 | But it wasn't enough. | 但还不够 |
| 304 | But it was definitely, I think, a little bit of a headwind | 但它肯定是,我想, 一点点头风 |
| 305 | for Donald Trump that his personal favorability ratings were not actually very high. | 对唐纳德·特朗普来说 他个人的好评率实际上并不高 |
| 306 | And he was | 他当时 |
| 307 | fortunate that he faced a candidate who had low favorability ratings by the time the election | 幸运的是,他面对的候选人 在选举时,有低的好评 |
| 308 | rolled around as well. | 也转过身来 |
| 309 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 310 | And then I just want to briefly touch on a few of the issues. | 然后,我只想简要谈谈其中几个问题。 |
| 311 | We can | 我们可以 |
| 312 | talk more about this in questions if there are questions about this. | 如果有疑问的话,多谈这个问题。 |
| 313 | But this is just an example. | 但这只是一个例子。 |
| 314 | There's a number of different ways that people look at this. | 人们有多种不同的方式看待这个. |
| 315 | But one way is by looking at what | 但一种方式是看什么 |
| 316 | are the voting issues that people are going to find extremely important as they think about the | 人们在思考投票问题时 会发现投票问题极其重要 |
| 317 | presidential vote. | 总统投票。 |
| 318 | And here you have, I decided to break this down by party or look at a breakdown | 在这里,你,我决定 打破这个党 或看看崩溃 |
| 319 | by party. | 以党为单位。 |
| 320 | The overall, if you looked at what issues people thought were very important, | 总的来说,如果你看看什么问题 人们认为非常重要, |
| 321 | the issues were the economy, immigration, democracy in the United States, and abortion. | 问题是美国的经济、移民、民主和堕胎。 |
| 322 | If you were to look across the entire voting population here, if you look at the parties, | 如果你看看这里所有的投票人口, 如果你看看政党, |
| 323 | there's some difference across parties that I thought was interesting. | 派对上有些不同 我觉得很有趣 |
| 324 | The Republican voters | 共和党选民 |
| 325 | were focused on the economy, which they generally thought was poor, and immigration, | 他们通常认为经济贫穷,移民问题, |
| 326 | which they generally thought was not being handled well by the federal government. | 他们一般认为联邦政府处理得不好 |
| 327 | And then the Democratic voters were concerned about democracy in the United States. | 之后民主党选民对美国的民主感到关切. |
| 328 | And this was | 这是 |
| 329 | concern about Donald Trump and the idea that he might be a threat to democracy based on his | 关于唐纳德·特朗普的担忧 以及基于他的 |
| 330 | statements. | 发言。 |
| 331 | And then the Supreme Court and abortion. | 然后最高法院和堕胎。 |
| 332 | So reproductive rights became a very | 因此,生殖权成为一个非常 |
| 333 | big issue in the United States, even bigger than it had been before due to a Supreme Court decision. | 美国的大问题, 比以前更大的问题 由于最高法院的裁决。 |
| 334 | This is the big federal court that is the final word on the interpretation of the Constitution. | 这是关于宪法解释的联邦大法院的最后一句话. |
| 335 | They determined that there was not a constitutional protection for the rights to have an abortion. | 他们确定,对堕胎的权利没有宪法保护。 |
| 336 | And so that became a state policy matter. | 因此,这成为国家政策问题。 |
| 337 | And that opened up all sorts of possibilities for | 这打开了各种可能性 |
| 338 | restrictions of access to abortion and other reproductive health services. | 限制获得堕胎和其他生殖保健服务。 |
| 339 | And that was | 这是 |
| 340 | very important issue for many Americans. | 对许多美国人来说非常重要的问题 |
| 341 | And it was especially important, as we can see here, | 正如我们所见,这是非常重要的, |
| 342 | to the Democrat and Democratic, meaning independent voters. | 代表独立选民。 |
| 343 | And there's a lot to talk | 还有很多话要说 |
| 344 | about in terms of issues and issue positions of the parties. | 双方的问题和立场。 |
| 345 | I'm going to leave that to questions | 我要把这事留待问完 |
| 346 | if we have some questions. | 如果我们有一些问题。 |
| 347 | And then finally, I wanted just to touch on the issue of China, | 最后,我想谈谈中国的问题, |
| 348 | public opinion and the election. | 舆论与选举. |
| 349 | And so here, I just wanted to start with favorability ratings. | 所以在这里,我只想从好评开始。 |
| 350 | This isn't about candidates. | 这跟候选人无关 |
| 351 | This is favorability ratings of countries. | 这是对各国有利的评级。 |
| 352 | And so this is asking not, | 所以这是不问, |
| 353 | do you have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, but what's your opinion of a | 你对唐纳德·特朗普或卡马拉·哈里斯有好评吗? |
| 354 | country? | 国家? |
| 355 | And we can go into this again and also in a little more detail. | 我们可以再谈一次, 还要更详细一点。 |
| 356 | I don't think the typical | 我不认为典型的 |
| 357 | American has a deep knowledge of a lot of these countries, some of these countries, I don't think. | 美国人对这些国家中很多,其中一些国家有很深的了解,我认为没有. |
| 358 | So you have to take these answers for what they are. | 所以,你必须接受 这些答案是什么。 |
| 359 | But this is just an example of a relatively | 但这只是一个例子 一个相对 |
| 360 | recent take on this. | 最近这个。 |
| 361 | It hasn't changed all that much in the last year. | 去年没有改变这么多 |
| 362 | But if you take a look, | 但是如果你看看的话, |
| 363 | countries that are viewed as very or mostly favorable, you can see those are the sort of | 你可以看到,那些被认为非常或大多数是有利的国家, |
| 364 | Anglosphere kind of countries, Canada and Britain, and then Europe and Japan. | 盎格鲁人种国家,加拿大和英国,然后是欧洲和日本. |
| 365 | And then if you sort of | 然后如果你有点 |
| 366 | go down the list, you see this cluster at the bottom here. | 从列表中下移,你可以看到下面的这个集群。 |
| 367 | And what have you got? | 你有什么发现? |
| 368 | You've got | 你已经有了 |
| 369 | North Korea, Russia, Iran, China. | 朝鲜,俄罗斯,伊朗,中国. |
| 370 | So it's pretty low down in terms of favorability ratings. | 因此,在收视率上相当低. |
| 371 | And | 还有 |
| 372 | you're really just asking literally a random person in the American population, what do you | 你真的只是 问一个随机的人在美国人口, 你是什么 |
| 373 | think about these countries? | 考虑一下这些国家? |
| 374 | And they're kind of giving you whatever they have to say on this, | 他们给你什么 他们不得不说, |
| 375 | but this is what they have to say. | 但这是他们必须说的 |
| 376 | And then a couple other slides and then we'll open it up | 然后用其他几张幻灯片打开 |
| 377 | to questions. | 对问题。 |
| 378 | This is not a perennial thing. | 这不是一个常年的事情。 |
| 379 | This isn't like every time we've done this survey in | 这不像我们每次调查 |
| 380 | the past or at Pew or Gallup or whoever has done this survey, it's always the case that China is | 过去或者在皮尤 或者盖洛普 或者做过这次调查的人 总是中国 |
| 381 | viewed very unfavorably. | 感觉很不合适 |
| 382 | In fact, it really is a relatively recent phenomenon. | 事实上,它确实是一个相对较新的现象。 |
| 383 | You can see there | 你看见了 |
| 384 | it's over the last seven or eight years that this has sort of occurred. | 在过去的七八年里 事情发生了 |
| 385 | And I'd be interested in | 我有兴趣 |
| 386 | hearing people's views about why that might be. | 听到人们的观点 为什么会这样。 |
| 387 | Again, I'm not an expert on public opinion | 再说一次,我不是舆论专家 |
| 388 | toward other countries, but I have a little bit of background knowledge of that, but I'd be very | 我对其他国家有一点背景了解 但我会非常 |
| 389 | interested in hearing other people's views. | 有兴趣听到别人的看法。 |
| 390 | And then finally, here's the breakdown by party. | 最后,这里是按派对细分的。 |
| 391 | So | 这么说 |
| 392 | a majority of conservative Republicans hold very unfavorable views of China. | 大多数保守的共和党人对中国持有非常不友好的观点. |
| 393 | If you broke down that | 如果你打破这个 |
| 394 | unfavorable chart by party overall, and this would be both favorable, both very and somewhat | 总体来说,这不可取的图表,无论是非常还是有些 |
| 395 | unfavorable. | 不乐. |
| 396 | It would be Republicans 90 to 9, very or somewhat unfavorable to very or somewhat | 应该是共和党90比9 非常或有些不满意 |
| 397 | Democrats are still pretty heavily unfavorable, but it's a 77 to 21. | 民主党人仍然相当不讨好,但以77比21不讨好. |
| 398 | So it's noticeably less | 所以,它明显减少 |
| 399 | unfavorable, but still rather unfavorable. | 不好,但还是很不好 |
| 400 | And if you sort of look at just very unfavorable, | 如果你看着很不合适 |
| 401 | there is a clear difference across the parties. | 各方之间显然存在分歧。 |
| 402 | Conservative Republicans are really extremely | 保守派的共和党人真的很厉害 |
| 403 | negative in terms of, this is again, this isn't politicians, this is the general public. | 负面的方面,这又是, 这不是政客, 这是普通大众。 |
| 404 | Conservative Republicans are extremely negative, 68% with a very unfavorable opinion of China. | 保守派的共和党人极其消极,68%的人对中国有非常不友好的看法. |
| 405 | There's a question that asks, is China an enemy, a competitor or an ally or friend or something | 有人问中国是敌人,是竞争对手还是盟友还是朋友 |
| 406 | like that? | 像这样? |
| 407 | And when given that choice, I believe that's what this question is about. | 如果有这个选择,我相信这就是问题所在。 |
| 408 | 69% of the | 占69% |
| 409 | conservative Republicans are, if you can see for yourself, quite negative. | 保守的共和党人,如果你能亲眼看到的话,是相当消极的. |
| 410 | And then some index of | 然后,一些指数 |
| 411 | concern about China as a competitor is indicated by the third column. | 第三栏列出了对中国作为竞争对手的关切。 |
| 412 | So let me stop there. | 因此,让我停下来。 |
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