耶鲁校友暨小鹏副董事长+管理学院前院长+EMBA校友创投人探
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | For those of you who may be new to the Center, the Center was founded in 2014 as Yale University's | 对于你们中那些可能刚进入中心的人来说,中心成立于2014年,是耶鲁大学的 |
| 0:11 | only university-wide center outside of its U.S. campus representing all 14 schools. | 只有全大学中心 在其美国校园外 代表所有14所学校。 |
| 0:17 | And throughout the year we host events such as these where we invite thought leaders to | 在整个一年里,我们主办 像这些活动 我们邀请思想领袖们 |
| 0:23 | discuss the most pressing and cutting-edge issues around the world. | 讨论全世界最紧迫和最尖端的问题。 |
| 0:28 | And today we're in for a treat. | 今天我们来吃顿饭 |
| 0:32 | We have Professor Ted Snyder who is a specialist, an expert in antitrust and the economics of | 我们有Ted Snyder教授 他是一个专家, 一个反托拉斯和经济学专家 |
| 0:43 | industrial organization and has applied the IO framework in analyzing many, many sectors | 在分析许多部门时应用了IO框架 |
| 0:50 | and now including the high-tech industry. | 现在包括高科技产业 |
| 0:53 | We have Logan Bender who is a Yale SOM graduate and seasoned technology investor in the Silicon | 我们有Logan Bender 他是一个耶鲁大学SOM的毕业生 和有经验的技术投资者 在硅 |
| 1:01 | 谷 Valley. |
展开字幕全文（982 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | For those of you who may be new to the Center, the Center was founded in 2014 as Yale University's | 对于你们中那些可能刚进入中心的人来说,中心成立于2014年,是耶鲁大学的 |
| 2 | only university-wide center outside of its U.S. campus representing all 14 schools. | 只有全大学中心 在其美国校园外 代表所有14所学校。 |
| 3 | And throughout the year we host events such as these where we invite thought leaders to | 在整个一年里,我们主办 像这些活动 我们邀请思想领袖们 |
| 4 | discuss the most pressing and cutting-edge issues around the world. | 讨论全世界最紧迫和最尖端的问题。 |
| 5 | And today we're in for a treat. | 今天我们来吃顿饭 |
| 6 | We have Professor Ted Snyder who is a specialist, an expert in antitrust and the economics of | 我们有Ted Snyder教授 他是一个专家, 一个反托拉斯和经济学专家 |
| 7 | industrial organization and has applied the IO framework in analyzing many, many sectors | 在分析许多部门时应用了IO框架 |
| 8 | and now including the high-tech industry. | 现在包括高科技产业 |
| 9 | We have Logan Bender who is a Yale SOM graduate and seasoned technology investor in the Silicon | 我们有Logan Bender 他是一个耶鲁大学SOM的毕业生 和有经验的技术投资者 在硅 |
| 10 | 谷 Valley. | |
| 11 | He has also been an angel investor and an equity research analyst. | 他还曾是天使投资人和股权研究分析师. |
| 12 | They have been doing these briefings for years and we're very happy to bring this to a hybrid | 他们已经做了这些通报多年了 我们很高兴把这个带到一个混合体 |
| 13 | 多亏了Jakub Madre的帮助 | |
| 14 | He is Ted's very capable research assistant and a Yale University alum. | 他是泰德非常能干的研究助理 也是耶鲁大学的校友 |
| 15 | Today we're also very honored and privileged to have a special guest here with us, Dr. | 今天我们非常荣幸 有一位特别的客人与我们在一起,博士。 |
| 16 | Brian Gu, who is himself also an SOM alumnus. | 布莱恩·古,他自己也是SOM校友. |
| 17 | He is the vice-chairman and president of Xiaopeng, one of the world's largest automotive companies. | 他是世界最大的汽车公司之一萧邦的副主席和总裁. |
| 18 | He has been leading the company's corporate strategy, legal affairs, finance, investments | 他一直在领导公司的公司战略 法律事务 财务 投资 |
| 19 | and international market expansion. | 扩大国际市场。 |
| 20 | He has helped the company. | 他帮助了公司。 |
| 21 | He's been instrumental in helping the company raise $10 billion in capital, get listed on | 他帮助公司筹集了100亿美元的资金 上市 |
| 22 | NYSE and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, built partnerships with Alibaba, Volkswagen and | 纽约证监会和香港证券交易所与阿里巴巴、大众和 |
| 23 | as well as helped catapulted the company onto MSCI ESG Research, one of the highest globally | 以及帮助将公司推向了MSCI ESG Research,全球最高之一 |
| 24 | ranked automotive companies in the ESG space. | 在ESG空间排名汽车公司. |
| 25 | So without further ado, tonight we will have Ted and Logan lead with a discussion on the | 所以今晚我们让Ted和Logan一起讨论 |
| 26 | industry, its market and what they're seeing as challenges and opportunities. | 工业、市场和他们认为的挑战和机遇 |
| 27 | And then the three of them will have a discussion about their outlook on their industry. | 然后三人将讨论他们的产业前景. |
| 28 | So let's welcome all of them. | 因此,让我们欢迎他们所有人。 |
| 29 | Thank you, Carol. | 谢谢你,卡罗尔。 |
| 30 | And it's an understatement to say we are grateful for everything that you and your team have | 我们很感谢你和你的团队 |
| 31 | done to help make this webinar series happen and attract audiences who are connected to | 为了帮助实现这个网络游戏系列 并吸引与网络相关的观众 |
| 32 | Yale Center Beijing. | 耶鲁中心北京. |
| 33 | So thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 34 | And a special thanks to Dr. Brian Gu, whom I've not seen for a while, but I remember | 还要特别感谢布赖恩·古博士 我好久没见到他 但我记得 |
| 35 | with great fondness and we look forward to engaging him. | 我们期待着与他接触。 |
| 36 | And as we get started, I am going to just give a little background to build on what | 随着我们开始,我只想 提供一点背景 来发展什么 |
| 37 | Carol said about the webinar series. | 卡罗尔说到韦比纳尔系列. |
| 38 | And it does indeed derive from the course that Logan and I taught on economics of high | 我和罗根教授的经济学课程的确如此 |
| 39 | tech industries for five years. | 科技产业五年. |
| 40 | And one of the things that students and now alumni of the course really enjoyed was | 学生们和现在的校友们 真正喜欢的就是 |
| 41 | discussion of current events, what's happening in major industries. | 讨论时事,主要行业发生的情况. |
| 42 | And we focused on the mobility sector, payments, e-commerce and video related activities. | 我们专注于流动部门、支付、电子商务和视频相关活动。 |
| 43 | So four big verticals across US, rest of world and, of course, China. | 因此,四个大的垂直 横跨美国,世界其他地区,当然还有中国。 |
| 44 | So that's the background. | 这就是背景。 |
| 45 | And our first webinar was on the so-called MAG7 US stocks like Apple and Nvidia. | 我们的第一个 Webinar 在所谓的MAG7 美国股票,如苹果和Nvidia。 |
| 46 | And the feedback we got was very positive. | 我们得到的反馈是非常积极的。 |
| 47 | I think one of the things that people liked the most was the two swimming pools metaphor. | 我想人们最喜欢的一件事 就是两个游泳池的比喻 |
| 48 | And the idea was that for a long time, the MAG7 swim in one pool where there were distinct | 而这个想法是,很长一段时间, MAG7 游泳在一个游泳池 在那里有明显的 |
| 49 | competitive lanes. | 竞技车道. |
| 50 | And then over time, those lanes blurred e-commerce and social commerce, for example. | 随着时间的推移,这些通道模糊了电子商务和社会商业等。 |
| 51 | But the big development with the MAG7 has been, of course, AI. | 但与MAG7相关的重大发展当然是AI. |
| 52 | And that's a different swimming pool. | 那是个不同的游泳池 |
| 53 | There are no lanes and there are lots of different competitors and very big bets being | 没有车道 有很多不同的竞争对手 赌注很大 |
| 54 | made by not only the MAG7 but companies all around the world. | 不仅由MAG7公司制造 也由世界各地的公司制造 |
| 55 | So that is a little background about what we've done so far. | 这就是我们至今为止所做所为的一个小背景。 |
| 56 | We have a website. | 我们有网站了 |
| 57 | For those of you who are interested, you can check that out. | 对你们有兴趣的人来说 你们可以看看 |
| 58 | We have some briefings. | 我们有一些简报。 |
| 59 | We have other materials. | 我们有其他的材料。 |
| 60 | We had the first webinar recorded. | 我们录了第一部网络电影 |
| 61 | And we'll, of course, record and post today's session with Dr. Brian Gu. | 当然,我们会记录和张贴 今天的会议与布赖恩·古博士。 |
| 62 | Logan, maybe we should switch to the next slide. | 洛根,也许我们应该换下一张幻灯片。 |
| 63 | And you could introduce yourself to the extent that you want to say more than what Carol said. | 你可以自我介绍一下 比Carol说的还要多 |
| 64 | Yes. | 对 |
| 65 | Well, Carol, and especially Dr. Gu today, thank you for joining us. | 卡罗尔,尤其是今天的顾医生,谢谢你加入我们 |
| 66 | We value having executives on our lecture series. | 我们很重视有高管参加我们的系列讲座 |
| 67 | We always have a productive discussion. | 我们总是有一个富有成效的讨论。 |
| 68 | The audience always appreciates it. | 观众总是欣赏它。 |
| 69 | So thank you very much. | 非常感谢 |
| 70 | My name is Logan Bender. | 我叫洛根・班德 |
| 71 | Ted and I have taught this course for five years. | Ted和我教这门课五年了 |
| 72 | We built it. | 我们造的 |
| 73 | The idea was we want to bring economics live to the markets. | 我们想把经济带给市场 |
| 74 | What's happening in the technology space, in the high-tech space? | 科技空间,高科技空间发生了什么? |
| 75 | What is the current event of the day? | 今天是什么情况? |
| 76 | Sometimes it's automotive. | 有时是汽车 |
| 77 | Sometimes it's video streaming. | 有时是视频流传. |
| 78 | We look at everything from streamers in Asia. | 我们从亚洲的溪流客那里看所有东西。 |
| 79 | What are their business models doing versus the US? | 他们的商业模式对美国做什么? |
| 80 | And so I won't go too much past that. | 所以我不会太过份 |
| 81 | This lecture series is designed to pick current events and thematics that are top of mind, | 这个系列讲座旨在选择时事事件和最顶尖的主题, |
| 82 | top of people's mind, and to bring you to the forefront of that industry | 让你成为这个行业的前锋 |
| 83 | and have guests like Dr. Gu unpack some insight for us. | 给顾博士这样的客人解开一些洞察力 |
| 84 | So Ted, I'll kick it back to you. | 所以泰德,我会把它踢回给你。 |
| 85 | Actually, there's one thing to add about me. | 事实上,还有一件事要说 |
| 86 | I did serve as Dean of Yale School of Management and two other top US business schools. | 我曾经担任耶鲁管理学院和另外两所美国顶尖商学院的院长. |
| 87 | Right now, I'm getting a lot of questions about what is going on with US business schools. | 现在,我得到了很多的问题 关于美国商学院是怎么回事。 |
| 88 | And I have a piece coming out in a publication called Poets and Quants, | 我有一个作品出来 在一个出版物 诗人和泉水, |
| 89 | which is the leading publication about business schools. | 这是有关商学院的主要出版物。 |
| 90 | So for those of you who are interested in my views about what's happening with US business schools, | 所以,对于你们中那些感兴趣的 我的观点 美国商学院正在发生, |
| 91 | look for that forthcoming piece in the next week or so. | 下周左右再找那块 |
| 92 | But let's move on to our special guest. | 但是,让我们继续我们的特别客人。 |
| 93 | He is, as Carol said, Vice Chairman of, and I don't know how to pronounce it. | 正如卡罗尔所说,他是副主席 我不知道如何宣布 |
| 94 | I call it ex-ping. | 我称之为前平。 |
| 95 | I'm sure that's not correct. | 我敢肯定,这是不对的。 |
| 96 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 97 | But he is an amazing executive with diverse, successful experiences | 但是他是一个出色的主管 有着多样的成功经验 |
| 98 | and banking, technology, strategic partnerships with entities like Alibaba and Volkswagen, DD. | 以及银行业、技术、与阿里巴巴和大众汽车等实体的战略伙伴关系。 |
| 99 | He's studied in the US at University of Oregon, University of Washington, | 他在美国就读于俄勒冈大学,华盛顿大学, |
| 100 | where he got his PhD and MBA from Yale. | 他从耶鲁大学拿到博士和MBA |
| 101 | So Brian, welcome. | 布莱恩,欢迎 |
| 102 | I think one thing we wanted to do is get your reaction to the next slide, which | 我认为我们想做的是 让你对下一张幻灯片的反应 |
| 103 | has some information about ex-ping. | 有一些关于前作的信息。 |
| 104 | And I don't know if there's anything here that requires correction. | 我不知道这里有什么需要纠正的 |
| 105 | But as you look it over, there's some information about the founding, | 但当你仔细看的时候 有一些关于创始人的信息 |
| 106 | the initial funding, your board. | 初始资金,你的董事会。 |
| 107 | It says that your first vehicle was produced not that long ago, November 2018, | 上面说你的第一辆车 不是很久以前 2018年11月 |
| 108 | as information about IPO, stock exchange, first exports to Norway, cooperation with VW Group, | 作为IPO、证券交易所、对挪威的首次出口、与VW集团合作的信息, |
| 109 | sold vehicles in 2018, and a dramatic increase in output to last year. | 2018年售出车辆,产出到去年大幅增长. |
| 110 | Is there anything on there that you would want to highlight about | 上面有什么你想强调的 |
| 111 | or correct, Brian? | 还是正确,布莱恩? |
| 112 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 113 | I think there are a few areas I'll probably give a little more color, | 我想有些地方我可能会给更多的颜色 |
| 114 | because I think it was probably not the right way it happened. | 因为我觉得事情可能不对劲 |
| 115 | And let's first talk about the founding of Xiaopeng Ex-Peng. | 且先谈小松前鹏的创立. |
| 116 | It is correct that it was actually founded by a group of very young, | 这是正确的,它实际上 由一群非常年轻的, |
| 117 | talented engineers coming out of Guanzhou Auto back in late 2014, early 2015. | 天才工程师于2014年末,2015年初从关州汽车回来. |
| 118 | And at that time, He Xiaopeng, who was actually a very successful internet | 当时,贺晓鹏,他其实是一个非常成功的互联网 |
| 119 | entrepreneur, was just an investor. | 企业家,只是一个投资者。 |
| 120 | He actually, at that time, just sold his previous startup company called UC Web to | 那时他刚刚把前一家公司 叫做UC Web卖给了 |
| 121 | Alibaba, and he became an executive of Alibaba. | 阿里巴巴,他也成为阿里巴巴的执行官. |
| 122 | Because of the sale, he was also personally very successful and received a lot of wealth | 因为卖掉,他个人也非常成功,得到很多财富 |
| 123 | from that first startup. | 从第一个开始。 |
| 124 | So he was looking for the next big thing. | 所以他在找下一个大事 |
| 125 | So he actually was very excited about the EV opportunity. | 所以他其实对EV的机会非常兴奋. |
| 126 | But at that time, because he's an executive of Alibaba, | 但在那个时候 因为他是阿里巴巴的主管 |
| 127 | he could not obviously start his own company. | 他显然不能成立自己的公司。 |
| 128 | So he found this small group of engineers who has a vision of building EV. | 于是他发现了一个小的工程师群体,他们有建造EV的远见. |
| 129 | He said, OK, I'll be your backer. | 他说,好吧,我会是你的支持者。 |
| 130 | So that's the beginning is Xiaopeng is a financial backer of a small team who | 开始是小鹏是小队的财阀 |
| 131 | actually became Ex-Peng. | 实际成为前彭. |
| 132 | And I think they are very smart of them because after they received the money from | 我认为他们很聪明,因为他们收到钱之后 |
| 133 | Xiaopeng, they renamed the company as Xiaopeng Qiche. | 小鹏,他们把公司更名为小鹏Qiche. |
| 134 | So the guy can never leave the company anymore. | 所以这家伙不能再离开公司了 |
| 135 | So he was forever attached to that venture. | 所以他永远跟那个冒险有关 |
| 136 | So that was the very early days. | 所以那是很早的时候。 |
| 137 | And He Xiaopeng himself actually only joined as chairman CEO late 2017. | 而贺晓鹏本人实际上只是2017年末才加入为总裁. |
| 138 | And that's actually when I joined. | 那时我加入了 |
| 139 | I joined about early 2018. | 我加入了约2018年初。 |
| 140 | He and I are actually personal friends. | 他和我其实是私人朋友 |
| 141 | We know each other for several years before this venture. | 我们相识了好几年 在此之前,这次冒险。 |
| 142 | And he just one day showed up at my house and said, well, I'm thinking about leaving | 有一天他出现在我家说 我想离开 |
| 143 | Alibaba. | 阿里巴巴语. |
| 144 | I want to go into this company. | 我想进入这个公司。 |
| 145 | I fund it. | 我资助它。 |
| 146 | I want to build the next great company. | 我想建立下一个伟大的公司。 |
| 147 | You want to come along. | 你想一起来。 |
| 148 | I said, OK, how big is the company? | 我说,好吧,公司有多大? |
| 149 | He said, oh, we have a few hundred people. | 他说,哦,我们有几百人。 |
| 150 | I said, well, how much money you have? | 我说,好吧,你有多少钱? |
| 151 | He said, oh, we haven't raised a single round yet. | 他说,哦,我们还没有提高一回合。 |
| 152 | And then sort of think, OK, do we have a car? | 然后想,好吧,我们有车吗? |
| 153 | I said, well, it's probably a few years away. | 我说,嗯,这可能是 几年后。 |
| 154 | So at that time, I don't want to say no to a good friend. | 所以在那个时候,我不想对一个好朋友说不. |
| 155 | I said, let me think about it. | 我说,让我想想 |
| 156 | But it took me about six months to see it, see things are starting moving and got | 但我花了半年时间才看到 事情开始发展 |
| 157 | convinced that this is actually a very interesting, exciting opportunity. | 相信这其实是一个非常有趣,令人兴奋的机会. |
| 158 | So that was actually the beginning of X10. | 这就是X10的开始 |
| 159 | We also obviously moved from a few hundred people at the time when I joined to now | 我们显然也从当时的几百人 搬到现在 |
| 160 | about 25,000 people. | 大约25,000人。 |
| 161 | We have now launched seven models. | 我们现在推出了7种模式。 |
| 162 | The first one was actually the end of 2018. | 第一部实际上是2018年底. |
| 163 | And then since then, we've been launching approximately one model per year for the | 此后,我们每年推出一个模型 |
| 164 | last seven years. | 7年来 |
| 165 | And now if you look at the total cumulative delivery that we have developed, we actually | 现在,如果你看看 我们开发的累计总交付, 我们实际上 |
| 166 | delivered over 760,000 BEV, Battery Electric Vehicles, globally. | 在全球交付了超过76万BEV,电池电动车辆. |
| 167 | And if you look at that number and compare it to the global EV companies, we actually | 如果你看看这个数字 并将其与全球EV公司比较 我们实际上 |
| 168 | are the second to Tesla in terms of BEV delivery by a company that started after Tesla. | 就BEV的交货而言,是Tesla的第二家从Tesla之后开始的公司。 |
| 169 | So actually, we always talk about Xinzaoche, the emerging names. | 所以实际上,我们总是谈论辛佐奇, 新兴的名字。 |
| 170 | Nobody had to define them. | 没有人需要定义它们。 |
| 171 | I said, well, maybe let's make it simple. | 我说,也许让我们简单点 |
| 172 | Anyone who started before Tesla is old company, right? | 在特斯拉之前开始的人都是老公司 对吧? |
| 173 | Because Tesla really showed people how EV become the new product with software | 因为特斯拉真的向人们展示了EV是如何用软件成为新产品的 |
| 174 | design and defined and also the different product definition. | 设计、定义和不同的产品定义。 |
| 175 | Anything started after Tesla, new company, we call it emerging EV company. | 在Tesla之后,新的公司,我们称之为新兴的EV公司。 |
| 176 | And they'll actually, if you look at the numbers, probably about 300, 400 startups | 他们实际上,如果你看看数字, 大概300,400个初创企业。 |
| 177 | that actually happened after Tesla was founded in 2003. | 这实际上发生在特斯拉成立于2003年之后。 |
| 178 | And we're actually the second largest after Tesla, if you look at that group. | 实际上,我们是仅次于特斯拉的第二大, 如果你看看那组。 |
| 179 | Brian, Brian, may I ask you a question? | 布莱恩,布莱恩,我可以问你一个问题吗? |
| 180 | Sorry to interrupt. | 抱歉打断你 |
| 181 | You mentioned that you developed new models, about one new model per year. | 你提到你开发了新的模型, 大约每年一个新的模型。 |
| 182 | What would you say is your most distinctive model that is now in your portfolio? | 你说你最独特的模式是什么? |
| 183 | It's quite interesting because we have launched a number of models that actually became very | 这很有趣,因为我们推出了一些模型 实际上成为非常 |
| 184 | impactful at the time of launch. | 在发射时影响很大。 |
| 185 | For example, P7, a lot of people know P7. | 例如P7,很多人都知道P7. |
| 186 | When we launched the P7 in 2020, it was built as the most successful EV made by Chinese companies. | 2020年推出P7时,作为中国公司制作的最成功的EV型机车建成. |
| 187 | It was actually the most best-selling Chinese EV sedan. | 这其实是最畅销的中国EV轿车. |
| 188 | It was also one of the smartest vehicles on the street. | 它也是这条街上最聪明的车辆之一. |
| 189 | Because when China started to produce cars that had the self-navigated ADAS function, | 因为当中国开始生产具有自动导航ADAS功能的汽车时, |
| 190 | P7 was the very first one to demonstrate the highway capability. | P7是第一个展示高速公路能力的人。 |
| 191 | And then subsequently, we also have demonstrated other models. | 随后,我们还演示了其他模型。 |
| 192 | The first in urban settings and so forth. | 第一种在城市环境等等。 |
| 193 | So I would say P7 is a very iconic X-Pen product. | 所以我会说P7是一个非常标志性的XPen产品. |
| 194 | Everybody who knew X-Pen at the time knows P7. | 当时认识X -Pen的人都知道P7 |
| 195 | And then the last two years, obviously, the rave is all about Mona. | 然后在过去两年里,显然,狂欢节都是关于莫娜的。 |
| 196 | I mean, probably people in China are like, oh, there's this, again, a sedan product | 我的意思是,也许中国的人 喜欢,哦,还有这个,一个轿车产品 |
| 197 | that was launched about nine, ten months ago. | 9,10个月前推出的 |
| 198 | It became actually the number one A-class EV sedan with its unique design and also | 它实际上成为了头号A级的EV轿车 有着独特的设计,同时也 |
| 199 | smart capabilities. | 智能能力。 |
| 200 | And also, it targets a much more mass segment. | 而且,它的目标 更多的质量部分。 |
| 201 | That also became a very iconic product for us. | 这对我们来说也是一个非常标志性的产品。 |
| 202 | But along the way, though, we actually have quite a few products that | 但一路,虽然,我们实际上 有一些产品 |
| 203 | has demonstrated very unique and outstanding features and well remembered by the customers. | 展现了非常独特和突出的特点,并为顾客所铭记。 |
| 204 | Let's define ADAS for the audience. | 让我们给观众定义ADAS. |
| 205 | Ted, advanced driver assistance systems. | Ted 先进的驾驶辅助系统 |
| 206 | For those who are unfamiliar, the ADAS technology. | 对于不熟悉的人来说,ADAS技术. |
| 207 | Just clarification there. | 只是澄清一下 |
| 208 | Go ahead. | 来吧。 |
| 209 | Great. | 不错 |
| 210 | So let's go to the next slide and we'll continue to ask Brian questions along the way. | 所以,让我们去下一张幻灯片 我们将继续问布莱恩的问题 沿途。 |
| 211 | But our approach is to look at the economics, demand, and supply. | 但是,我们的方法是研究经济、需求和供给。 |
| 212 | A couple of things to pay attention to. | 几事当心. |
| 213 | Vertical integration strategies differ. | 纵向一体化战略不同。 |
| 214 | Geography is very important. | 地理非常重要。 |
| 215 | Then we'll get into some developments and challenges and innovations, as well as | 然后,我们将进入一些发展和挑战 和创新,以及 |
| 216 | talk a little bit about tariffs and global tensions. | 略谈关税和全球紧张局势。 |
| 217 | And we'll wrap up with some implications and what to watch for. | 我们最后会看到一些影响 以及需要注意什么 |
| 218 | And of course, we'll have time after for questions. | 当然,我们还有时间提问 |
| 219 | Many of which I think will be directed at our special guests. | 其中许多会针对我们的特别客人 |
| 220 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 221 | I think I want to just cover very quickly some basics. | 我想尽快讲一些基本知识 |
| 222 | For those of you who are in the US, you might get the impression that the EV market | 对于那些在美国的人来说, 你可能会觉得EV市场 |
| 223 | is faltering. | 正在动摇。 |
| 224 | But the data don't show that. | 但数据并没有显示这一点。 |
| 225 | The EV market is really doing well. | EV市场真的做得很好。 |
| 226 | And when we say EVs, Brian mentioned BEVs, battery, electronic vehicles. | 当我们说EVs时,布莱恩提到了BEVs,电池,电子车辆. |
| 227 | They're also hybrids and so forth. | 它们也是杂交种等. |
| 228 | But more than 20% of new cars sold worldwide were electric or hybrids. | 但全球销售的新车有20%以上是电动车或杂交车. |
| 229 | China, skipping down to the last point, is emerging as the world's EV manufacturing hub. | 中国,跳到最后一点,正在成为世界EV制造枢纽. |
| 230 | And it accounts for a very high percentage of global production. | 它在全球产量中占很高的比例。 |
| 231 | So next slide. | 下一张 |
| 232 | Here's a graph to just show you that tremendous growth since 2015, | 以下是一个图表来显示2015年以来的巨大增长, |
| 233 | and the plug-ins, the batteries, and the hybrid electrics. | 还有插头、电池和混合电源 |
| 234 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 235 | And here's a ranking of the largest global manufacturers. | 这是全球最大制造商的排名。 |
| 236 | And one thing to note is that BYD is now number one. | 需要指出的是,BYD现在是第一。 |
| 237 | And by a substantial amount over Tesla. | 和大量超过特斯拉。 |
| 238 | And if you've read the stories about Tesla in their sales output in China and in the EU | 如果你读过Tesla在中国和欧盟的销售产出 |
| 239 | and elsewhere, BYD has moved ahead of Tesla in each of those regional markets. | BYD在这些地区的每一个市场都领先于Tesla。 |
| 240 | A VW group with whom Brian has a partnership is three. | 一个与布莱恩有合作关系的VW团体是三个. |
| 241 | And you go down. | 而你会下去。 |
| 242 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 243 | Of course, everybody would probably say, of course, EVs and the versions of EVs | 当然,每个人都可能会说, 当然,EVs和EVs的版本 |
| 244 | are high-tech products because, number one, they embody new technologies. | 是高科技产品,因为第一,它们体现了新技术。 |
| 245 | Electric motors and chargeable batteries, software, lots of new technologies. | 电动机和充电电池,软件,许多新技术. |
| 246 | But one thing that I think is important in understanding | 但我认为有一件事很重要 了解 |
| 247 | the global market competition is that compared to internal combustion engines, ICE vehicles, | 与内燃机,ICE车辆相比, |
| 248 | EVs have a different cost structure. | EVs的成本结构不同. |
| 249 | At least this is my opinion. | 至少这是我的看法。 |
| 250 | And we believe that different cost structure fits the classic characteristics of high-tech industries. | 我们认为,不同的成本结构符合高科技工业的经典特点。 |
| 251 | There are more upfront fixed costs in establishing production capabilities and design. | 在建立生产能力和设计方面还有更多的预付固定费用。 |
| 252 | But the marginal costs, the so-called incremental costs of producing | 但边际成本,所谓的增量成本 生产 |
| 253 | new vehicles is lower for EVs and hybrids compared to internal combustion engine ICE vehicles. | 与内燃机ICE车辆相比,EV和混合动力的新车更低. |
| 254 | So high fixed costs, relatively low marginal costs. | 如此高的固定成本,相对较低的边际成本. |
| 255 | So EVs fit what Logan and I believe are the classic cost characteristics of high-tech industries. | 所以EVs符合洛根和我相信的 是高科技工业的经典成本特征。 |
| 256 | Brian, do you agree with number two? | 布莱恩,你同意二号吗? |
| 257 | Or could you elaborate and maybe add some color context? | 或者你能否细化一些颜色背景? |
| 258 | First of all, I agree that EV is a high-tech product. | 首先,我同意EV是一种高科技产品. |
| 259 | I think it's an approach from a very different angle. | 我认为这是一个非常不同的角度的方法。 |
| 260 | Instead of focusing on the cost structure, actually focus on the construction of the product. | 与其注重成本结构,不如实际注重产品的建设. |
| 261 | Why this can be more high-tech versus traditional gas-powered automobile. | 为什么这可以比传统的燃气动力汽车更高科技。 |
| 262 | There's actually big differences. | 实际差别很大. |
| 263 | For example, an EV by nature has a large battery which powers the vehicle. | 例如,从性质上讲,EV拥有一个巨大的电池,为车辆提供动力. |
| 264 | At the same time, if you want to make a product high-tech, also intelligent, | 同时,如果你想制造一种高科技产品, 同时也是智能的, |
| 265 | which means that you need to have a lot of computational capabilities, | 这意味着你需要 大量的计算能力, |
| 266 | traditional gas-powered vehicles does not have the power nor the computing power to do that. | 传统的燃气驱动车辆没有这种能力,也没有计算能力。 |
| 267 | EV can do that because the battery is largely sufficient enough to power the chips, the screens, | EV可以做到这一点,因为电池 基本足够为芯片,屏幕供电, |
| 268 | the various tech components. | 各种技术组件。 |
| 269 | At the same time, it can also have large computational powers on board. | 同时它也可以在机上拥有较大的计算能力. |
| 270 | For example, the AI chips that we use for EVs cannot function in ICs | 例如,我们用于 EVs 的 AI 芯片无法在 IC 中运行 |
| 271 | because there's just not enough battery for that. | 因为电池不够用 |
| 272 | So the very design or the nature of the product makes it actually higher tech | 所以,产品的设计或性质 使得它实际上更高的技术 |
| 273 | or much more intelligent. | 或者更聪明些 |
| 274 | They can design AI around it, they can use a lot of software, | 他们可以设计AI周围, 他们可以使用很多软件, |
| 275 | whereas traditional vehicle is difficult. | 传统车辆很困难。 |
| 276 | I think that's another way to look at whether it's a high-tech product | 我想这是另一种方法 来研究它是否是高科技产品 |
| 277 | versus a traditional product. | 对传统产品。 |
| 278 | But also you're right in terms of the cost structure. | 但成本结构方面你是对的 |
| 279 | In EV, I think a lot of the upgrades, a lot of the functions are defined by software, | 在EV中,我认为很多升级, 很多功能是由软件定义的, |
| 280 | defined by AI, and that has a huge scalable nature to it | 由AI定义, 并且具有巨大的可扩展性 |
| 281 | versus the traditional automobile. | 对传统汽车。 |
| 282 | It's more mechanical, it actually has less of the software definition or AI capabilities. | 它更机械化,实际上软件定义或AI能力较少. |
| 283 | That also separates, I would say, from a cost structure perspective | 我想说,从成本结构的角度来看,这也是不同的 |
| 284 | where is the value coming from. | 价值从何而来. |
| 285 | So I think those two things, I would say, define the high-tech nature more | 所以我认为这两件事,我想说, 更界定高科技性质 |
| 286 | than the traditional cost structure. | 而不是传统的成本结构。 |
| 287 | Brian, those are great insights. | 布莱恩,这是伟大的见解。 |
| 288 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 289 | I think you've clarified differences between ICE vehicles and EVs, | 我想你已经澄清了ICE车辆和EV的区别, |
| 290 | the role of software, AI upgrades, very helpful. | 软件的作用,AI升级,非常有帮助. |
| 291 | I also like the point that you're making about the ability of EV manufacturers | 我也很喜欢你所说的EV厂商的能力 |
| 292 | to differentiate their products. | 以区别他们的产品。 |
| 293 | And the other things that are in the background that Logan and I always keep in mind | 还有Logan和我总在意的其他事情 |
| 294 | are economies of scale, economies of scope, network effects. | 规模经济、范围经济、网络效应。 |
| 295 | And we'll get into those issues. | 然后我们再谈这些问题。 |
| 296 | Let me just quickly mention a few demand factors on the next slide. | 让我在下一张幻灯片上简要提及一些需求因素。 |
| 297 | In the US, at least, customers are still choosing between EVs and traditional vehicles. | 在美国,至少顾客仍然在EV和传统车辆之间做出选择. |
| 298 | Some of the issues in the US are increasing the range, | 美国的一些问题正在扩大范围, |
| 299 | shortening charging times, reducing safety concerns. | 缩短充电时间,减少安全隐患. |
| 300 | Down the road, meaning in the future, one question that we have posed to ourselves, | 沿着这条路,意味着未来, 我们对自己提出的一个问题, |
| 301 | Logan, you might want to take number five, | 洛根,你也许想拿第五, |
| 302 | but how do you think about potential competition and substitutes? | 但你对潜在竞争和替代物的看法如何? |
| 303 | Sure, I'll comment on number five. | 当然,我会评论第五。 |
| 304 | When we think about car ownership, you have total kind of life cycle of the vehicle. | 当我们考虑汽车所有权时 你拥有汽车的生命周期 |
| 305 | When we traditionally think of a car, we go buy a car. | 当我们传统上想到一辆汽车, 我们去买一辆汽车。 |
| 306 | We drive the car for 10 years. | 我们开车10年了 |
| 307 | We then exchange it for a newer model and what have you as you move through your life. | 然后我们把它换成一个新的模型 以及你生命中的一切 |
| 308 | However, that is not necessarily the case. | 然而,情况未必如此。 |
| 309 | When you have robo taxis or you have a ride share as a service, | 当你有Robo的出租车 或者你有一个乘车共享作为一个服务, |
| 310 | you can essentially, especially in an urban environment such as Beijing, | 你基本上可以,特别是在像北京这样的城市环境中, |
| 311 | essentially live your entire life using mobility as a service. | 基本上你一生都以行动能力为服务 |
| 312 | You need to get groceries. | 你需要买些杂货 |
| 313 | They can be dropped off from a vehicle that you no longer own. | 他们可以从你不再拥有的车辆上放下 |
| 314 | Mary Barra at General Motors has talked about an idea for years in which they have essentially | 通用汽车公司的玛丽·巴拉 多年来一直在谈论一个想法 他们基本上已经 |
| 315 | a fully automated or 8S capable vehicle coming off the assembly line, driving as a service | 一辆全自动或8S型能动车辆从装配线上下来,作为服务驾驶 |
| 316 | around the community for 10 years and then going right back in and getting scrapped | 在社区里呆了10年 然后回去被拆掉 |
| 317 | and having a new one being built. | 并有一个新的 建造。 |
| 318 | And so the concept of mobility is changing. | 所以流动的概念正在改变。 |
| 319 | And you look at programs like Uber in Pittsburgh or what San | 你看看像匹兹堡的Uber之类的节目 或者什么San |
| 320 | Francisco正在做他们的Waymo出租车服务。 | |
| 321 | Mobility as a service is changing. | 流动作为一种服务正在发生变化。 |
| 322 | It's changing how we think about our ownership of vehicle. | 它改变了我们对车辆所有权的看法。 |
| 323 | Do you necessarily need to own a car is going to be a question. | 你是否必须拥有一辆汽车将是一个问题。 |
| 324 | Our children may not even have licenses, for example. | 例如,我们的孩子甚至可能没有许可证。 |
| 325 | They may not need them. | 他们可能不需要他们。 |
| 326 | And so, Brian, you may comment. | 所以,布莱恩,你可以评论。 |
| 327 | I mean, there's cars in China without a steering column. | 我的意思是,中国有汽车 没有方向栏。 |
| 328 | There's commercial vehicles that are moving along the interstates every single day. | 每天都有商业车辆沿州际公路行驶. |
| 329 | And so it's really interesting. | 所以这真的很有趣。 |
| 330 | And that's why I want to highlight this. | 这就是为什么我想强调这一点。 |
| 331 | Substitutes is the state of the industry now is not necessarily the state of the industry | 替代物是工业状态 现在不一定是工业状态 |
| 332 | in five years or 10 years. | 在五年或十年内。 |
| 333 | So let's think about that when we discuss these thematics. | 我们讨论这些主题时再考虑一下。 |
| 334 | Add to what Logan's saying. | 加罗根所说. |
| 335 | We completely agree that the trajectory of development in mobility is accelerating so | 我们完全同意,流动的发展轨道正在加速, |
| 336 | much that I think the automobility or robot taxi will become reality. | 我认为自动性或机器人出租车会变成现实 |
| 337 | I would say in a reasonable amount of time. | 我想说在合理的时间内。 |
| 338 | I think when we first started in this EV venture, I think we saw robot taxis almost | 我想当我们刚开始这个EV项目的时候 我想我们几乎看到了机器人的出租车 |
| 339 | like very, very far away. | 像非常,非常遥远。 |
| 340 | But now today, I think it is actually going to happen. | 但今天,我觉得这真的会发生。 |
| 341 | And it's going to happen probably sooner than a lot of people think. | 可能比很多人想的要快 |
| 342 | There are two ways to do it. | 有二法门. |
| 343 | One is actually a lot of the companies probably hear about Baidu's robot taxi or | 一个是很多公司 可能听说白度的机器人出租车 |
| 344 | there's some level four companies. | 有一些四级公司。 |
| 345 | So they go directly to level four and try to create products that fit for robot taxi | 所以他们直接进入四级 尝试制造适合机器人出租车的产品 |
| 346 | scenarios. | 假设 |
| 347 | On the other hand, what we focus on is we think the product can gradually progress | 另一方面,我们所关注的 是我们认为产品可以逐步进步 |
| 348 | towards a level four like scenario outcome. | 向四级发展 就像场景结果 |
| 349 | Right now, for example, our cars are still driven by humans. | 现在,比如说,我们的汽车仍然由人类驾驶。 |
| 350 | But the cars possess increasingly more autonomous driving capabilities. | 但汽车拥有越来越自主的驾驶能力. |
| 351 | Right now, obviously we are still not level three because legally we are still required | 现在,显然我们还没有达到三级,因为在法律上,我们仍然需要 |
| 352 | to be responsible for the driving. | 负责驾驶。 |
| 353 | But the car technologically can actually navigate most of the scenarios in Chinese urban | 但从技术上讲,这辆车可以 在中国城市的绝大部分情景 |
| 354 | roads. | 道路。 |
| 355 | And we think with the investment in technology and software, aided by AI, as well as better | 在AI的帮助下,我们用技术和软件投资来思考,以及更好的 |
| 356 | and redundant hardware architecture. | 和冗余硬件架构. |
| 357 | We'll probably see level three probably as early as next year on Chinese roads. | 我们大概会在明年 中国的公路上看到三级 |
| 358 | Level three for a lot of people here is that actually you are still requiring a steering | 对这里很多人来说第三级是 实际上你还需要一个导师 |
| 359 | wheel, but the car is now legally can navigate on its own. | 车轮,但现在合法可以自行导航. |
| 360 | But you're still required to be sitting behind the wheel. | 但你还是需要坐在车轮后面 |
| 361 | But I think the scenario Logan mentioned is actually level four, which is actually | 但我认为洛根提到的情景 实际上是四级,事实上 |
| 362 | removing the steering wheel altogether. | 把方向盘完全拆掉 |
| 363 | There's no way to resume control, so the car is completely autonomous. | 无法恢复控制,因此该车完全自主. |
| 364 | And that's level four. | 且道第四关. |
| 365 | We think level four will probably happen in two to three years in China and then expand | 我们认为,四级很可能在二到三年后 在中国,然后扩张。 |
| 366 | into wider use areas. | 在更广泛的使用区域。 |
| 367 | So that's actually the future I share completely with Logan. | 这其实是我和洛根完全分享的未来。 |
| 368 | But one thing I think we'll probably have a slightly different view of the future is | 但是,我想我们对未来的看法可能有些不同 |
| 369 | that I think there's still going to be personal ownership. | 我认为还有个人所有权 |
| 370 | People would like to have their own vehicle, even if it's purely autonomous. | 人们希望拥有自己的车辆,即使它纯粹是自主的. |
| 371 | I think the need for personal space, personal preference, customization is still there. | 我认为个人空间,个人偏好,定制的需求依然存在. |
| 372 | So I think there's still going to be family-owned autonomous driving cars. | 所以,我认为还有 家庭拥有的自主驾驶汽车。 |
| 373 | But you can imagine those cars can be actually producing for the owner, right? | 但你可以想象这些车真的能为车主生产 对吧? |
| 374 | I mean, if you have an autonomous driving car at home, you can call it your own car. | 我的意思是,如果你有 自主驾驶汽车在家里, 你可以称之为自己的车。 |
| 375 | But when it's not used, actually it can be leased or being used to transport people or | 但当它没有被使用时,实际上它可以被租借或用来运送人员或 |
| 376 | using mobility services, that actually we think is probably very likely to be a scenario | 使用流动服务,实际上我们认为 很可能是一个情景 |
| 377 | rather than completely third-party-owned vehicles that come into services. | 而不是完全由第三方拥有的车辆投入服务。 |
| 378 | But I'm sure that's also a valid scenario as well. | 但我敢肯定,这也是一个有效的情景。 |
| 379 | So in the future, maybe there will be two parallel mobility scenarios. | 所以在未来,也许会出现两种平行的流动性假设。 |
| 380 | One is personal-owned personal vehicles that can be used for mobility services. | 一个是个人拥有的、可用于流动服务的个人车辆。 |
| 381 | And there will be also third-party, purely service-focused mobility vehicles. | 还有第三方的、纯粹以服务为重点的机动车辆。 |
| 382 | But anyway, I think the mobility as we know it will be completely different | 但不管怎样,我认为我们所知道的流动是完全不同的 |
| 383 | in the five to 10 years time. | 在五到十年的时间。 |
| 384 | Brian, let me ask you a question about the role of density, population density. | 布莱恩,让我问你一个问题 关于密度,人口密度的作用。 |
| 385 | Neil Shen, many of you know, he contributed to our class. | 尼尔·沈,你们很多人都知道 他为我们班上的学生做出了贡献 |
| 386 | One of the things he said that was important to take into account in the development of | 他说,重要的是,在发展经济时,考虑到这一点。 |
| 387 | high-tech industries in China, for example, the role of mobility as a service is density. | 例如,中国的高科技产业,流动性作为服务的作用是密度。 |
| 388 | The number of Chinese cities with more than two million people or four million people | 二百万以上人口或四百万人口的中国城市数量 |
| 389 | vastly exceeds the number in the US and in the EU. | 大大超过了美国和欧盟的数字。 |
| 390 | Do you see density playing a role in the development of the EV industry in China? | 你是否看到密度在中国EV产业的发展中发挥了作用? |
| 391 | Yes, I would say EV as a product is actually most widely used in larger, | 是的,我想说EV作为一种产品 实际上最广泛使用 在更大的, |
| 392 | denser cities for several reasons. | 密度较大的城市有几个原因。 |
| 393 | One is that one of the main concerns people have about EV is range anxiety. | 一是人们对EV的主要关注之一是射程焦虑. |
| 394 | So it's used for long-distance travel or traveling in smaller cities lacking | 因此它被用于长途旅行或在缺少的较小城市中旅行 |
| 395 | critical infrastructure like charging stations when the EV penetration is much lower. | 在EV渗透率低得多时,诸如充电站等重要基础设施。 |
| 396 | So that's why if you look at major cities, cities has large populations, | 所以,如果你看看大城市, 城市人口众多, |
| 397 | city has more wealthy populations, tend to have higher EV penetration. | 城市人口比较富裕,往往具有较高的EV渗透率. |
| 398 | We see that in China. | 我们在中国看到了这一点。 |
| 399 | We also see that around the world as well. | 我们也在全世界看到这一点。 |
| 400 | Look at Hong Kong. | 观香港. |
| 401 | The EV penetration is now over 70%. | EV的渗透率现在超过了70%. |
| 402 | Singapore is gradually coming up even though Singapore has very small subsidies for EVs, | 新加坡正在逐渐崛起,尽管新加坡对EVs的补贴很小, |
| 403 | but still I think the EV penetration is increasing. | 但我还是觉得EV的渗透率在上升 |
| 404 | If you also look at larger, more denser populated areas with a fluent population, | 如果你还看到人口流畅的 人口密度更大的地方 |
| 405 | EV penetration is always the highest. | EV的渗透率总是最高的. |
| 406 | And that actually speaks to both the user base as well as infrastructure readiness. | 这实际上既说明了用户基础,也说明了基础设施的准备情况。 |
| 407 | Just wanted to get this visual on the rise of the Chinese EV industry. | 只是想了解一下中国EV产业的兴起. |
| 408 | It is indeed spectacular through 2024. | 它在2024年确实非常壮观。 |
| 409 | And then if we could go back to the previous slide that shows | 然后如果我们能回到上一张显示 |
| 410 | patterns of production and trade, and I won't go through this slide in detail, | 生产和交易的模式, 我不会经过这个幻灯片的细节, |
| 411 | but if you just focus on China, it's the biggest circle. | 但如果你只关注中国, 这是最大的圈子。 |
| 412 | And then you ask the question, where is China selling outside of China? | 然后你问,中国向外卖到哪里去了? |
| 413 | The EU, for example, is a market that's important. | 例如,欧盟是一个重要的市场。 |
| 414 | So you get that gray arrow from China to the EU. | 你从中国到欧盟的灰色箭头 |
| 415 | You notice that there's really not a direct arrow from China to the US. | 你注意到,真的没有 从中国到美国的直箭。 |
| 416 | The US has some sales in the EU, but geography is important. | 美国在欧盟有一些销量,但地理上很重要. |
| 417 | And some of that, of course, reflects global tensions. | 当然,其中一些反映了全球紧张局势。 |
| 418 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 419 | The rate of adoption varies greatly by country. | 收养率因国而异。 |
| 420 | Brian just touched on that for reasons that I don't really fully understand. | Brian刚提到这个原因 我不太明白 |
| 421 | Norway has a very high rate of adoption. | 挪威的收养率很高。 |
| 422 | And then on the right, USA is low at 10%. | 在右边,美国低到10%。 |
| 423 | On average, the world is at 22%. | 平均世界为22%。 |
| 424 | China is above the average. | 中国高于平均水平。 |
| 425 | So China above the average, US below the average. | 因此中国高于平均水平,美国低于平均水平. |
| 426 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 427 | Vertical integration is important. | 纵向融合很重要。 |
| 428 | Backward into batteries, rare earth minerals. | 回到电池 稀土矿物 |
| 429 | Forward or sideways into charging stations. | 前进或侧向进入充电站. |
| 430 | Forward into dealerships, servicing, upselling, even financial services. | 进入经销商,服务,上市,甚至金融服务. |
| 431 | Companies are choosing very different strategies. | 公司正在选择截然不同的战略。 |
| 432 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 433 | This may be a bit of a challenge for people to read, | 这对人们来说是个挑战, |
| 434 | but this shows a profile of BYD and Tesla. | 但这显示了BYD和Tesla的简介. |
| 435 | And Logan, since I seem to have a little trouble with early morning voice, | 和洛根,因为我似乎 有点麻烦与清晨的声音, |
| 436 | maybe you could talk through this. | 也许你可以谈谈这个 |
| 437 | Yeah, sure. | 当然 |
| 438 | So when we look at this slide, we also talk about... | 所以,当我们看这个幻灯片, 我们也谈论... |
| 439 | Well, let's take a step back. | 好吧,让我们退一步。 |
| 440 | We looked at Tesla several years ago. | 我们几年前看了特斯拉 |
| 441 | Tesla's stock price is rising. | 特斯拉股价上涨. |
| 442 | The valuation is being impacted. | 估值受到影响。 |
| 443 | And we asked ourselves, why is Tesla valued like a software company? | 我们问自己,为什么Tesla像软件公司一样受到重视? |
| 444 | Carried a very high multiple in terms of valuation on the public market. | 在公共市场上的估价中,有很高的倍数。 |
| 445 | And there's a few ways you can look at it. | 亦有几法可观. |
| 446 | But one of the ways you can look at it is how to develop their manufacturing processes | 但你可以研究的方法之一是如何发展他们的制造工艺 |
| 447 | and how much integration they've done. | 和他们做了多少整合。 |
| 448 | The simple way to say it is they build the machines that build the machines. | 简单的说,就是他们建造机器 制造机器。 |
| 449 | They build the machines that then build the cars. | 他们制造机器 然后制造汽车 |
| 450 | And they can do that better than anybody else, or so they say. | 他们能比其他人做得更好,或者说是这样。 |
| 451 | And the market believed them, which commands a higher selling price. | 而市场相信他们, 这需要更高的售价。 |
| 452 | They can make a more developed vehicle that the consumer demands. | 它们能制造出消费者要求的更发达的载体. |
| 453 | They have better charging networks, which impacts the valuation. | 它们有更好的充电网络,这影响了估值。 |
| 454 | But BYD recently has come out with some incredible technology. | 但BYD最近推出了一些令人难以置信的技术。 |
| 455 | Not only have they overtaken Tesla in terms of absolute unit sales, | 不仅在绝对单位销售量上超过了特斯拉 |
| 456 | they can manufacture at scale and cost-effectively. | 它们能够以规模和成本效益的方式制造。 |
| 457 | And more recent developments such as the rapid charging. | 以及最近的发展,如快速充电。 |
| 458 | They can charge a battery. | 他们可以充电。 |
| 459 | I believe it's about 80% in five minutes. | 5分钟内大概是80% |
| 460 | I have not ridden in a BYD vehicle in many years. | 我很多年没坐过BYD车了 |
| 461 | So I can't substantiate that claim. | 所以我无法证实这种说法。 |
| 462 | Or it is an interesting data point. | 或者这是一个有趣的数据点。 |
| 463 | And that has been a resounding news item around the world. | 这是全世界一个响亮的新闻。 |
| 464 | Can Tesla catch up? | 特斯拉能跟上吗? |
| 465 | Is BYD pulling ahead of Tesla? | BYD领先特斯拉吗? |
| 466 | Well, they are in unit sales and growth, certainly. | 当然,它们属于单位销售和增长。 |
| 467 | And they have a larger market in China. | 而且它们在中国拥有更大的市场. |
| 468 | The absolute size of the market is so much bigger in China. | 中国市场绝对规模大得多. |
| 469 | They can sell the cars for cheaper. | 他们可以以更便宜的价格出售汽车. |
| 470 | They seem to be winning that. | 他们似乎正在赢得这个。 |
| 471 | In terms of Tesla's valuation, obviously, aside from the political turmoil | 就特斯拉的估价来说 除了政治动荡之外 |
| 472 | that's happening in the US, Tesla's valuation has fluctuated tremendously. | 特斯拉的估价波动很大 |
| 473 | The story started to stumble a little bit. | 故事开始有点颠倒. |
| 474 | The BYD story hasn't stumbled in the same way. | BYD的故事并没有以同样的方式出现. |
| 475 | I think their stock price is still elevated. | 我觉得他们的股价还在上涨 |
| 476 | Brian, is there anything, a data point or two, | 布莱恩,有什么,一个或两个数据点, |
| 477 | you want to unpack about your insight into the integration | 你想解开你的见解 关于整合 |
| 478 | in the Chinese automotive sector as of late? | 最近在中国汽车部门? |
| 479 | Well, I think Lowy had a very good summary over there. | 我想Lowy在那边有个很好的总结 |
| 480 | I think a few things that's different. | 我认为有些事情是不同的。 |
| 481 | I would say BYD is more vertically integrated | 我想BYD是比较垂直的 |
| 482 | with a lot of suppliers, tier one, even tier two, that they make themselves. | 有很多供应商, 一级,甚至二级, 他们自己制造。 |
| 483 | So they actually not only makes money from being OEM, | 因此,他们实际上不仅赚钱 从OEM, |
| 484 | but also they take away some of the supplier tier one, tier two margins | 但也夺走了第一级、第二级供应商的利润率 |
| 485 | because they integrate that. | 因为他们融合了这一点。 |
| 486 | So that's something very different compared to other OEMs, including Tesla. | 和包括特斯拉在内的其他OEM相比,这是非常不同的。 |
| 487 | So I think most of OEMs does not do a lot of their supply chain work. | 所以我认为大部分的OEM并没有做很多的供应链工作. |
| 488 | Another thing I think I have to point out is that the BYD, | 还有一件事我想我要指出的是,BYD, |
| 489 | if you look at their technology, | 如果你看看他们的技术, |
| 490 | they are very good with battery and electric powertrain. | 他们很擅长电池和电动火车 |
| 491 | That's something that they have known for. | 这是他们知道的 |
| 492 | Their battery is cheaper and also they have scaled manufacturing on their own, | 他们的电池更便宜 而且他们自己也扩大了制造规模 |
| 493 | which gives them some advantage. | 这给他们一些优势。 |
| 494 | Again, that's related to the vertical integration point that I made. | 再说一遍,这与我提出的纵向整合点有关。 |
| 495 | For most others, including ours, | 对于大多数其他人,包括我们的, |
| 496 | we actually work with battery partners in China. | 我们实际上与中国的电池合作伙伴合作。 |
| 497 | So we don't make battery cells because that's a completely different area. | 所以我们不制造电池 因为那是完全不同的领域。 |
| 498 | So we think that's too capital intensive. | 所以我们认为这太资本密集型了。 |
| 499 | Another thing I think about Tesla, | 我还有一件事想特斯拉, |
| 500 | I think you're very correct that Tesla, | 我认为你是对的 特斯拉, |
| 501 | even though it's known for its EV product, | 尽管它以EV产品而闻名, |
| 502 | but if you look at the capital market position, | 但是如果你看看资本市场的情况 |
| 503 | people no longer just look at it as an EV company. | 人们不再把它看成一家EV公司 |
| 504 | It's an AI company. | 这是一个AI公司。 |
| 505 | It's a robotic company. | 这是一个机器人公司。 |
| 506 | And that's something I think give them the high sort of valuation mark. | 我认为这是给他们 一种高价值的标记。 |
| 507 | Compared to the other traditional automotive companies. | 与其他传统汽车公司相比. |
| 508 | In fact, if you look at the ratios, | 事实上,如果你看看比率 |
| 509 | there's a valuation ratio. | 有一个估价比率。 |
| 510 | So it was studied at SOM that if you look at sales ratio, | 所以在SOM公司研究过 如果你看看销售率 |
| 511 | because a lot of those are probably about it on PS, | 因为其中很多可能是PS上的 |
| 512 | Tesla has as high as like six times the sales, | 特斯拉的销量高达6倍 |
| 513 | whereas BYD is about one time sales, | 而BYD是大约一次销售, |
| 514 | we're roughly two times sales. | 我们大约是销售量的两倍 |
| 515 | So I think also the ratio points to the people perceive technology | 所以我认为这个比例也指向人们感知到科技 |
| 516 | as well as their future sort of tech positioning. | 还有他们未来的技术定位 |
| 517 | So I think that's something I think differentiate across those three names, | 所以我觉得这跟这三个名字不同 |
| 518 | but it's a very different scale comparison. | 但它是一个非常不同的尺度比较。 |
| 519 | BYD is a lot more, I would say bigger in scale, | BYD要大得多,我要说规模更大, |
| 520 | but they are obviously selling at much lower price points. | 但他们的售价显然要低得多 |
| 521 | So that's a very different position versus Tesla. | 这和特斯拉的立场完全不同 |
| 522 | Even for us, I think our average price point about 30% higher than BYD. | 甚至对我们来说,我认为我们的平均价格比BYD高30%。 |
| 523 | But I think, again, the currently, I think, | 但我还是认为,现在,我想, |
| 524 | scale is a lot of people who invest to focus on it. | 规模是很多投资关注它的人。 |
| 525 | So I think BYD are getting a lot of the economic, | 所以我认为BYD得到了很多经济, |
| 526 | economy skill benefits from their operations. | 经济技能从其业务中受益。 |
| 527 | That's a perfect segue into our next slide. | 我们的下一张幻灯片中,这是完美的结扎。 |
| 528 | We just wanted to get a little more granular. | 我们只是想多吃点颗粒 |
| 529 | Here are some examples of what EVs cost in the US. | 以下是EVs在美国成本的一些例子. |
| 530 | And let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 531 | Here's what Tesla's Model Y costs in China based on information we have. | 以下是特斯拉的"模型Y"在中国根据我们掌握的信息成本. |
| 532 | Let's go to the next one. | 下一颂. |
| 533 | Here's BYD's Song Plus. | 这是BYD的歌曲加。 |
| 534 | What does it cost in China? | 中国要花多少钱? |
| 535 | Very impressive range, $22,000 roughly US. | 非常令人印象深刻,大约22,000美元。 |
| 536 | Next one. | 下一个 |
| 537 | 接着是Xpeng. | |
| 538 | Beautiful car, by the way, Brian. | 顺便说一句,漂亮的车,布莱恩。 |
| 539 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 540 | What would you say about the information about this particular G6? | 关于这个G6的信息你会怎么说? |
| 541 | Well, I think G6 is a very good example because it competes with Model Y | 我觉得G6是个很好的例子 因为它和模特Y竞争 |
| 542 | around the world in 30 different countries right now. | 现在世界上有30个不同的国家 |
| 543 | So in some of the markets, even though we're a new entrant, | 因此,在一些市场, 即使我们是一个新的进入者, |
| 544 | G6 is outselling Model Y already. | G6已经超销了型号Y. |
| 545 | So that's actually a very encouraging sign for our products. | 这对我们的产品来说是一个非常令人鼓舞的迹象。 |
| 546 | I would say that from a pricing perspective in China, | 从中国的定价角度来说, |
| 547 | you can see that Model Y is about 30%, 40% higher in price than average G6. | 模型Y比G6的平均价格高30%,40%。 |
| 548 | But G6 actually has probably better drivetrain because it's a high voltage, | 但G6的驱动装置可能更好 因为它的电压很高 |
| 549 | fast charging vehicle versus a Model Y which is slower charging. | 快速充电车对Y型车的充电速度较慢。 |
| 550 | That's a big difference, you can notice. | 这是一个很大的区别,你可以注意到。 |
| 551 | Going to a same charging station, plug in the car, | 去同一个充电站 塞进车里 |
| 552 | G6 charges twice as fast as Model Y. | G6的充电速度是Model Y的两倍. |
| 553 | Secondly is that this one has what I call the all-scenario, | 第二,这个有我所说的全景, |
| 554 | autonomous driving ADAS function, which can help you navigate on the streets of China. | 自动驱动 ADAS 功能,可以帮助您在中国的街道上导航. |
| 555 | And we don't charge for it. | 我们不收费的 |
| 556 | It's all including the price. | 包括价格在内 |
| 557 | Whereas Model Y, for the same FSD, I'd be paying another $60,000 plus RMB more for that price. | 而模型Y,为相同的FSD, 我会支付另外6万美元加人民币 价格。 |
| 558 | So from a value perspective, it definitely, I would say, | 因此,从价值的角度来看,它肯定,我要说, |
| 559 | has very attractive value propositions. | 有非常有吸引力的价值建议。 |
| 560 | The other thing I think that's noticeable is that the Model Y only had a refreshment recently. | 另外一件值得注意的事是, 模型Y只是最近才有一点新鲜。 |
| 561 | For the last five, six years, Model Y hasn't really changed its look, | 在过去的5,6年里,模特Y并没有真正改变它的外观, |
| 562 | nor its interior as well as their capabilities. | 无论是内部还是能力 |
| 563 | Whereas for us, given how competitive the Chinese market is, | 而对于我们来说,鉴于中国市场的竞争力, |
| 564 | we actually are focused on making improvements on a yearly basis. | 我们实际上侧重于每年作出改进。 |
| 565 | And also the software OTA is even more frequent than that. | 并且软件OTA的频率也更高. |
| 566 | So that actually also points to the competitiveness of Chinese product. | 这实际上也表明了中国产品的竞争力. |
| 567 | Even though in the beginning, I would say Model Y has a lot of, | 虽然一开始,我会说模特Y有很多, |
| 568 | I would say, superior capabilities. | 我会说,超能力。 |
| 569 | But over the years, now I think Chinese product has caught up in many of those areas already. | 但多年来,我认为中国产品已经涉足许多领域。 |
| 570 | So that's why I think we expect a lot of EV manufacturers to experience financial trouble. | 因此,我认为我们期望许多EV制造商会遇到财务问题。 |
| 571 | And if we turn to the next slide, Logan, | 如果我们转到下一个幻灯片,洛根, |
| 572 | maybe you could talk through a little bit of what's happened recently in the US. | 也许你可以谈谈 最近在美国发生的事情 |
| 573 | Yes. | 对 |
| 574 | So three or four years ago, we got interested in some recent developments in EVs. | 所以三四年前,我们开始对EVs的一些最新发展感兴趣. |
| 575 | In our class, it was a thematic with our mobility. | 在我们的班上,它是一个主题 我们的行动。 |
| 576 | This was kind of, it was the year of Tesla. | 这算是特斯拉的一年 |
| 577 | Tesla's valuation rose. | 特斯拉的估值上升. |
| 578 | But here comes Rivian. | 但是里维安来了 |
| 579 | Rivian was a privately traded company. | Rivian是一家私人交易公司。 |
| 580 | It had garnered tremendous investor support from venture investors and private equity, etc. | 它从风险投资者和私人股本等获得巨大的投资者支持。 |
| 581 | When they came to IPO, their valuation was carried at about $110 billion. | 当他们来到IPO时,他们的估值是大约1100亿美元. |
| 582 | That was the market expectation of what the entire enterprise was valued at. | 这是整个企业的市场预期值。 |
| 583 | Now, they came out of the gate and they stumbled. | 现在,他们走出了大门,他们绊倒了。 |
| 584 | I think, Ted, within a year, maybe their stock price was down 80 plus, almost 90%. | 我想,泰德,在一年之内, 也许他们的股票价格 下跌80+,几乎90%。 |
| 585 | And Brian mentioned capital intensity earlier. | 布莱恩早些时候提到资本强度. |
| 586 | Well, these are not cheap businesses to start and to fund. | 那么,这些不是廉价的企业 开始和资助。 |
| 587 | You have to pour billions of dollars of capital into getting this business up and running. | 你得投入数十亿的资本 来启动和经营这行 |
| 588 | You have to have tremendous investment in human capital, excellent management, | 你必须有巨大的投资 人力资本,优秀的管理, |
| 589 | good banking relationships, etc. | 良好的银行关系等等。 |
| 590 | Rivian, their truck, I think, was priced at around $80,000 US dollars. | 里维昂,他们的卡车,我想, 价格大约8万美元。 |
| 591 | And so your market of buyers was fairly narrow. | 所以你的买家市场相当狭窄 |
| 592 | I mean, imagine having a discretionary spend to buy an $80,000 vehicle. | 我的意思是,想象有 酌情花费购买 8万美元汽车。 |
| 593 | It's not very common for a US household to have that on hand. | 一个美国家庭手头有这个并不常见. |
| 594 | And so their expectations, I think, exceeded investor appetite and risk appetite for that story. | 所以,我认为,他们的期望超过了投资者的胃口, 并冒着这个故事的胃口。 |
| 595 | We've seen some other cars come to market, Fisker, etc. | 我们看到一些其他汽车上市,费斯克等. |
| 596 | And these Lucid is another one. | 而这个路西德是另一个。 |
| 597 | They're very expensive to make. | 他们造价很高 |
| 598 | They stumbled. | 他们跌倒了 |
| 599 | The story was flimsy with the narrative. | 故事以叙事为虚妄. |
| 600 | How many buyers are they really? | 他们到底有多少买家? |
| 601 | They produced these vehicles. | 他们生产了这些车辆。 |
| 602 | They missed the targets. | 他们错过了目标。 |
| 603 | They got thrown a lifeline. | 他们被扔了一条生命线。 |
| 604 | In summary, the US startups in the EV space have struggled. | 简而言之,EV空间的美国初创企业一直挣扎着. |
| 605 | And Tesla is a unique example of a company that has been around long enough, | 而特斯拉是一个独特的例子 公司已经足够长的时间, |
| 606 | survived long enough, developed learning by doing and applied to their economic principles | 生存了足够长的时间,从实践中学习并应用到经济原则 |
| 607 | that they've inflected into a profitable position. | 他们已经融入了有利可图的地位。 |
| 608 | We haven't seen that from a casual perspective in the other EV makers. | 我们还没有从其他的EV制作人 的随意角度来看待。 |
| 609 | So Brian, maybe you want to add to the narrative here, Ted, back to you. | 所以,布莱恩,也许你想 加 在这里的叙述,泰德,回到你。 |
| 610 | But it's been a shaky story in the US for EV startups in general for several years. | 但对于EV初创公司来说,这在美国已经是几年来一个动荡的故事. |
| 611 | Let me just ask Jacob to show the next slide. | 让我请雅各看下一张幻灯片 |
| 612 | And Logan, I just wanted you to expand on one thing. | 和洛根,我只是想你扩展一件事。 |
| 613 | This was the Rivian model that captured a lot of people's attention. | 这是吸引了很多人关注的里维安模式. |
| 614 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 615 | I'm sorry. | 对不起 |
| 616 | 复说 that言. | |
| 617 | I mean, one of the concepts that we always keep in mind is total addressable market. | 我的意思是,我们一直铭记的一个概念 是完全可以解决的市场。 |
| 618 | And then what's the market for individual products like this Rivian product? | 然后像这种里维安产品的个别产品的市场是什么? |
| 619 | And how would you assess that, Logan? | 你怎么评价呢,洛根? |
| 620 | Well, the brass tax of it is who really is your buyer? | 那么,它的铜税是 谁才是你的买家? |
| 621 | Now, a vehicle like this, the light truck category in general is the fastest growing | 现在,这种车辆,一般的轻型货车种类是增长最快的 |
| 622 | category in automotive in the United States. | 美国汽车公司。 |
| 623 | EVs are higher growth. | EVs是更高的增长。 |
| 624 | But you get my point that if you're going to go buy a vehicle, | 但你明白我的意思 如果你要去买车 |
| 625 | light trucks are a category that has garnered a lot of attention from OEMs recently because | 轻型卡车是最近受到OEM关注的一个类别,因为 |
| 626 | they sell more of them. | 他们卖的更多。 |
| 627 | People want capability. | 人们想要能力。 |
| 628 | With Rivian, this is a very expensive vehicle. | 与里维昂,这是一个非常昂贵的车辆. |
| 629 | The battery's large, but the range is not flattering, let's just say, 300 miles. | 电池很大,但射程不高,比如说300英里 |
| 630 | So who's your real buyer? | 你真正的买家是谁? |
| 631 | Is it a person that's like a general manager at a construction site? | 是一个像施工现场总经理的人吗? |
| 632 | Maybe. | 也许 |
| 633 | But how many of those people are in the market for an $80,000 vehicle? | 但有多少人在市场上 8万美元汽车? |
| 634 | Needless to say, the total addressable market or the TAM that we say Ted and I believe was | 不用说,我们说Ted和TAM的 完全可以解决的市场或TAM |
| 635 | much more narrow than was implied in the IPO or was implied by some of the investor base | 比IPO暗示的或一些投资基础暗示的要狭窄得多 |
| 636 | that invest in Rivian in early days. | 早期投资里维安。 |
| 637 | We thought that the addressable market was actually much less than, and that's proved | 我们认为,可以解决的市场实际上 远远低于, 这已经证明 |
| 638 | to be at least directionally correct. | 至少方向正确。 |
| 639 | They haven't sold nearly as many vehicles as they thought that they would. | 他们卖的车辆没有想象的那么多 |
| 640 | They faced bankruptcy. | 他们面临破产。 |
| 641 | They got a line of credit, I believe, or investment from VW, et cetera. | 我相信他们有信用额度 或VW投资等 |
| 642 | So the story continues. | 故事还在继续 |
| 643 | But yes. | 不过是的 |
| 644 | And then contrast that with the vehicle that's supposed to come out, | 然后对比一下 与该出厂的车辆, |
| 645 | Slate, a small pickup truck, the price of that is expected to be $20,000. | Slate,一辆小卡车,预计价格为20 000美元。 |
| 646 | $20,000. | 2万美元。 |
| 647 | It has a four by eight bed. | 它有一个四八床。 |
| 648 | It can haul things like lumber. | 它能牵引木材之类的东西 |
| 649 | It's affordable for a consumer or for a young person starting their career in construction | 消费者或从建筑业开始的年轻人都能负担得起 |
| 650 | or what have you. | 或者你还有什么 |
| 651 | And it's a modest vehicle, but it's a practical vehicle. | 并且是一种谦虚的车辆,但是一种实用的车辆. |
| 652 | And so I think focusing on practicality is a different approach than focusing on | 所以我认为专注于实用性 是一个不同的方法 而不是专注于 |
| 653 | a much higher ASP car, Ted, in my view. | 泰德,我看是一辆高得多的ASP车 |
| 654 | So, Brian, you mentioned that the Chinese market is very competitive. | 布莱恩,你提到中国市场非常有竞争力 |
| 655 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 656 | How are the Chinese manufacturers doing? | 中国厂商怎么样? |
| 657 | Maybe you could comment also just on the nature of competition in the Chinese market. | 也许你也可以评论一下中国市场竞争的性质. |
| 658 | Yeah, I think, well, first of all, let me just give you some snapshot of what | 是的,我想,首先, 让我给你一些快照 |
| 659 | China EV market or NEV market looks like today. | 中国EV市场或NEV市场看似今日. |
| 660 | So you show the numbers last year. | 所以你显示去年的数字。 |
| 661 | They're about close to 12 million, what we call new energy vehicles, installed in China. | 大约1200万辆,我们称之为新能源汽车, 安装在中国。 |
| 662 | That includes battery electric as well as plugging hybrid. | 其中包括电池电源以及插电混合电源。 |
| 663 | So that also represents a penetration rate close to 50%. | 这也代表了接近50%的渗透率。 |
| 664 | The reason I mentioned that penetration rate close to 50% is | 我提到的渗透率接近50%的原因是 |
| 665 | in China, EV is no longer viewed as a niche product. | 在中国,EV不再被视为一种特殊产品. |
| 666 | Five years ago, when we launched our P7, when we started making EVs, | 五年前,当我们推出我们的P7, 当我们开始制作EV, |
| 667 | a lot of EV products are niche buyers. | 许多EV产品都是合适的买家. |
| 668 | They're affluent, they're progressive, they're early adopters. | 他们富裕,进步,是早期的收养者. |
| 669 | So they can tolerate a flawed product at a high prices. | 这样,他们就可以以高价容忍有缺陷的产品. |
| 670 | Fast forward to today. | 快速前进到今天。 |
| 671 | EVs are competing with every other vehicle on the road, made by traditional ICEs, | EVs正在和路上的所有其他车辆竞争 由传统的ICE制造 |
| 672 | made by the foreign, traditional EVs, as well as domestic automotive companies. | 由外国、传统EV以及国内汽车公司制造。 |
| 673 | They're competing with the same price segment of a normal, regular automobile. | 他们与普通普通汽车相同的价格段竞争. |
| 674 | So you have to make sure you're competitive. | 所以你得确保你的竞争。 |
| 675 | And you cannot just say, we have a flashy, interesting, weird-looking car that stands up. | 你不能只是说, 我们有一辆闪闪发光的,有趣的, 怪异的车站着。 |
| 676 | You have to make sure it fits people's taste, it fits people's wallet size, | 你得确保它符合人们的口味 符合人们的钱包大小 |
| 677 | it actually can achieve functions around the home, | 它实际上可以实现 在家庭周围的功能, |
| 678 | and people can have the convenience of using it every day. | 人们可以每天利用它 |
| 679 | That is what changed in China. | 这就是中国的变化。 |
| 680 | I think what Logan showed in the US, I think US still | 我认为洛根在美国所显示的, 我认为美国仍然 |
| 681 | are left with the niche positioning of EV today. | 留下了EV的优势位置 |
| 682 | If you look at what product is being built by Lucid, by Rivian, the price points, | 如果你看看Lucid、Rivian正在制造的是什么产品 价格点 |
| 683 | the usability are not catered to mass market or everyday drivers. | 无法满足大众市场或日常驱动力的需要。 |
| 684 | So that's, I think, the difference between China and US today. | 所以,我认为,这就是今天中国和美国的区别。 |
| 685 | And then commenting on the competition. | 然后评论比赛. |
| 686 | How did China arrive to where we are today? | 中国是如何到达我们今天的位置的? |
| 687 | It's through fierce competition. | 它通过激烈的竞争。 |
| 688 | The Chinese EV market, I would say, is probably, if not the, | 我想说,中国的EV市场 很可能,如果不是, |
| 689 | but one of the most competitive markets in the world, | 是世界上最有竞争力的市场之一 |
| 690 | and one of the most competitive industries among all industries in China. | 也是中国所有行业中最具竞争力的产业之一. |
| 691 | When I first joined Expan, there was actually a Bloomberg article | 我第一次加入Expan时,实际上有一篇彭博的文章 |
| 692 | talked about in 2018 along, there's 285 or 385 companies from China raised money to build EVs. | 2018年随即谈起,中国有285家或385家公司集资兴建EV. |
| 693 | That's how crazy and how large that group is. | 这群人是多么疯狂和庞大 |
| 694 | And fast forward to today, the new names that was mentioned in that article, | 很快的今天, 文章中提到的新名字, |
| 695 | I don't remember their 235 names or 385 names, | 我不记得他们235个名字或385个名字 |
| 696 | I think from that group, there's only probably a handful that's left. | 我认为,从那组人, 可能只剩下一小撮。 |
| 697 | That's how competitive that whole process was. | 整个过程都这么有竞争力 |
| 698 | For us, every year, we're competing with different players. | 对我们来说,我们每年都与不同的玩家竞争. |
| 699 | In the beginning, in 2018, 2019, we're competing with other startups, | 开始,2018年,2019年,与其他创业者竞争, |
| 700 | like Weima, Gaohe, and then later on, we're competing with Chinese OEMs. | 像魏玛,高河,后来,我们与中国的OEM竞争. |
| 701 | And then there's foreign JVs. | 然后有外国JV. |
| 702 | And last couple of years, there's Huawei and Xiaomi. | 及近数年,有华威与小美. |
| 703 | Every year, it's almost like you're playing a video game. | 每年几乎都像在玩电子游戏一样. |
| 704 | Every stage, you're beating a bigger boss. | 每个舞台,你都在打一个更大的老板。 |
| 705 | First of all, you beat up the small guys, | 首先,你打了这些小家伙, |
| 706 | and then the regular guys, now you have Huawei in front of you. | 然后是普通人 现在你们前面有华伟 |
| 707 | How do you compete with that? | 你怎么和它竞争? |
| 708 | Every day, we have to think about how we can compete. | 每天,我们必须思考如何进行竞争。 |
| 709 | And through that cultural competition, | 通过文化比赛, |
| 710 | you produce these last man standing on this list. | 名单里最后一位男的 |
| 711 | So that's how competitive the Chinese market is. | 因此,中国市场的竞争就是这样的. |
| 712 | So what's the players actually representing at the end? | 到底代表什么角色? |
| 713 | One is that you have to represent skill. | 其一,你必须代表技能。 |
| 714 | In order to survive, you cannot be a niche player anymore. | 为了生存,你不能再成为合适的角色了. |
| 715 | You have to have the minimum skill to survive. | 生存必须具备最起码的技能. |
| 716 | So I would say, a few years ago, people say, | 所以我说,几年前,人们说, |
| 717 | OK, $100,000 per year is how you can become a successful EV company. | 好吧,每年10万美元 是如何成为一个成功的EV公司。 |
| 718 | Now, two years ago, it would be $200,000. | 现在,两年前, 这将是20万美元。 |
| 719 | And now, it's maybe $400,000. | 而现在,它可能是40万美元。 |
| 720 | So we have to be at the right scale to be at least competitive | 所以我们必须达到合适的水平 才能有竞争力 |
| 721 | in surviving this cultural competition. | 在这场文化比赛中幸存下来 |
| 722 | So that's why we are launching more models. | 这就是为什么我们要推出更多的模型。 |
| 723 | We are building more, entering into more categories. | 我们正在建设,进入更多的类别。 |
| 724 | Second is, actually, you have to have your own technology differentiation. | 第二,实际上,你必须有自己的技术差异。 |
| 725 | You cannot just be another company just because you can be slightly cheaper, | 你不能只是成为另一个公司 只是因为你可以稍微便宜一点, |
| 726 | or you can have a car that's looking like. | 或者你可以拥有一辆车 看起来像。 |
| 727 | You have to have a technology that can differentiate you from other companies. | 你必须有一个技术 可以区分你和其他公司。 |
| 728 | So that's why we focus on full-stack autonomous driving capabilities. | 因此,我们注重于全封闭的自主驾驶能力。 |
| 729 | That's why we focus on building our own chips. | 这就是为什么我们专注于 建造自己的筹码。 |
| 730 | We actually are the first EV company to have our own AI mobility chips in our cars | 实际上,我们是第一家EV公司 拥有自己的AI移动芯片 在我们的汽车中 |
| 731 | by the second half of this year. | 在今年下半年之前 |
| 732 | And also, we're going to focus on making sure that we have the most advanced | 还有,我们要集中精力 确保我们拥有最先进的 |
| 733 | drivetrain, for example, high voltage, faster charging technologies. | 驱动列车,例如高压,加速充电技术. |
| 734 | All of that is necessary to produce the competitive, technologically advanced vehicles. | 所有这一切都是生产有竞争力、技术先进的车辆所必需的。 |
| 735 | The third thing is you have to be global. | 第三件事是 你必须是全球性的。 |
| 736 | You cannot stay local because even as a young company, | 你不能留在本地 因为即使作为一个年轻的公司, |
| 737 | if you are only limited to a domestic market | 仅限国内市场 |
| 738 | and you are not able to monetize or amortize all the R&D that you have invested into a | 您无法将您投资的研发项目货币化或摊销 |
| 739 | much larger, wider global market, you're at a disadvantage. | 更大,更广阔的全球市场, 你处于劣势。 |
| 740 | So I think another thing is you have to be a global player. | 所以,我认为还有一件事,那就是你必须成为一个全球玩家。 |
| 741 | So the remaining players all have to do all of that perfectly in order to survive this competition. | 所以剩下的球员都得完美地完成这一切 才能在这场比赛中存活下来 |
| 742 | So that's why I'm saying if you look at these on the list, | 所以我要说 如果你在名单上看到这些 |
| 743 | these are names that has skill, has technology, | 这些名字有技能 有技术 |
| 744 | and has, you know, limit and have embarrassed global capabilities as well. | 并且,你知道,也限制了全球能力,并感到尴尬。 |
| 745 | Brian, you made a really important point about a competition dynamic that I think | 布赖恩,你讲了很重要的一点 关于竞争的动态 我认为 |
| 746 | often gets lost in the Western analyst community. | 经常在西方分析界迷路 |
| 747 | I used to be an analyst in covering Chinese equities as well as their U.S. counterparts. | 我以前是中国股票 以及美国股票分析师 |
| 748 | And Brian mentioned 285 or 300 competitors it was in the EV space. | 布莱恩提到了285或300个竞争者 它在EV空间。 |
| 749 | Nothing like that would occur in the West. | 西方不会发生这种事 |
| 750 | I'd like the audience and the people that are sitting with us on this lecture to understand that | 我希望观众和观众 和我们坐在这讲座上 理解 |
| 751 | if we look at, hey, what's the U.S. EV startup space? | 如果我们看看,嘿, 什么是美国EV启动空间? |
| 752 | Maybe there's 15 or 20 of these competitors. | 也许这些竞争者中有15或20个. |
| 753 | In China, it's hundreds. | 在中国,为数百种. |
| 754 | I remember a payments IPO, and I think it was 2018, | 我记得一个付款IPO, 我想这是2018年, |
| 755 | and I asked my Asian colleagues at the banks, I was representing a hedge fund we were investing, | 我问我在银行的亚洲同事 我代表我们投资的对冲基金 |
| 756 | and I said, well, what is the competitive landscape like just for this company? | 我说,好吧,什么是竞争风景 像只是这个公司? |
| 757 | What's your subset of competitors that you're assessing when I talk to management, etc. | 你那些竞争对手的子集是什么? 当我和管理层谈话时,你正在评估。 |
| 758 | ? | ? 吗? |
| 759 | They said, well, we have about 3,000 competitors that we think | 他们说,我们有大约3000个竞争者 我们认为 |
| 760 | are in a competitive position competing with us in this space. | 处于竞争地位 与我们竞争 在这个空间。 |
| 761 | It's just the scale of China often is lost, I think, on the Western community | 我想,只是中国在西方社区经常失落 |
| 762 | when we think about how competitive the markets are. | 当我们想到市场的竞争能力时 |
| 763 | I think that was a great point, Brian, in addition to your others. | 我想这是个好主意 布莱恩 除了你其他人 |
| 764 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 765 | Yeah, let me bring in some economics here. | 是啊,让我带来 一些经济学在这里。 |
| 766 | And, Jacob, I don't know if you're able to show my screen and replace the slides. | 雅各布,我不知道你能不能 展示我的屏幕和替换幻灯片。 |
| 767 | Is that possible, Jacob? | 有可能吗,雅各布? |
| 768 | So Brian mentioned the intense competition, | 布莱恩提到激烈的竞争 |
| 769 | and I want to just put together very simple three things. | 我想把三件事拼凑起来 |
| 770 | Low marginal costs leads to intense competition, | 低边际成本导致激烈的竞争, |
| 771 | especially when products are differentiated. | 特别是当产品有区别时。 |
| 772 | I'm sorry, especially when products are not differentiated. | 对不起,特别是当产品没有区别。 |
| 773 | And then what is the effect of product differentiation, | 然后产品区分的效果是什么? |
| 774 | successful, meaningful product differentiation? | 成功、有意义的产品区分? |
| 775 | How does that allow some firms to merge and win, | 如何让一些公司合并并获胜, |
| 776 | even though it's a very intense industry, intense market? | 尽管这是一个非常激烈的行业, 激烈的市场? |
| 777 | So let's see if I can get this positioned correctly. | 所以,让我们看看,如果我能 得到这个位置正确。 |
| 778 | So this is a standard econ graph with price on the vertical axis, | 因此,这是一个标准econ图 价格在垂直轴上, |
| 779 | quantity on the horizontal axis, and here's demand for a particular vehicle. | 水平轴上的数量,这里是特定车辆的需求。 |
| 780 | And the current price is here, and the firm's marginal cost is here. | 而现价在此,公司边际成本在此. |
| 781 | So there's a margin between price and marginal cost. | 因此价格和边际成本之间有一定差额. |
| 782 | Whenever you have that, the question for the firm is, | 每当你有,公司的问题是, |
| 783 | can you increase output? | 可以增加输出吗? |
| 784 | And if products are not differentiated, | 如果产品没有区别, |
| 785 | then the demand curve is pretty flat. | 然后需求曲线相当平坦。 |
| 786 | It's pretty elastic. | 颇有弹性. |
| 787 | And what a firm will want to do is try to capture more of these margins, | 律所想做的是 抓住更多这些边缘 |
| 788 | price minus marginal cost, over that extra range of output. | 价格减去边际成本,超过额外的产出范围。 |
| 789 | The problem is all the firms want to do this. | 问题是所有公司都想这样做。 |
| 790 | So when you have a low marginal cost undifferentiated environment, | 所以,当你有一个低边际成本 无差别的环境, |
| 791 | it leads to blood on the tracks. | 它导致血迹在铁轨上。 |
| 792 | You're going to get a lot of exit. | 你会得到很多出口。 |
| 793 | You're not going to have all these firms survive. | 你不会让这些公司都活下来的 |
| 794 | Some will go bankrupt. | 有些人会破产 |
| 795 | Some will merge. | 有些会合并 |
| 796 | Some will find financial lifelines like Rivian did from VW. | 有些人会找到像瑞维安那样的金融生命线 |
| 797 | But this is what leads to this very intense competition. | 但这导致了这场激烈的竞争。 |
| 798 | What Brian has explained, which I think is really wonderful, | 布莱恩所解释的 我觉得这真的很棒 |
| 799 | is that if you have successful product differentiation, two things happen. | 如果你能成功区分产品 就会有两件事发生 |
| 800 | One is the demand curve for your vehicles shifts up. | 一是换车的需求曲线 |
| 801 | There's greater willingness to pay. | 更有大愿报. |
| 802 | But also, and this is the point that a lot of people miss, | 但这也是很多人想念的要点 |
| 803 | is it changes the character of the demand curve. | 它是否改变了需求曲线的特性。 |
| 804 | Instead of the demand curve being really flat, | 而不是需求曲线 真正的平坦, |
| 805 | reflecting great substitutability on differentiated products, | 反映对不同产品的巨大可替代性, |
| 806 | the demand curve is less elastic. | 需求曲线弹性较小。 |
| 807 | So I'm not drawing the shift up in demand. | 所以我没有在需求上调整 |
| 808 | I'm just focusing on the fact that product differentiation | 我只是把注意力放在产品差异上 |
| 809 | means that the margin, your demand is less elastic. | 意味着边际,你的要求 弹性较小。 |
| 810 | And that establishes a deterrent from just putting more and more cars out there. | 这就形成了一种威慑力 防止把越来越多的车停在那里 |
| 811 | The margins, the price-cost margins drop, and it's just not financially attractive. | 利润率,价格-成本利润率下降,在经济上没有吸引力. |
| 812 | So if I can, and I want to wrap up here so we have time for open questions. | 因此,如果可以的话,我想在这里结束发言,以便我们有时间提出公开的问题。 |
| 813 | But Logan, we can go back to the slides, I think. | 但是Logan,我们可以回到幻灯片,我想。 |
| 814 | Thanks, Jakob. | 谢谢 贾可布. |
| 815 | That was great. | 这是伟大的。 |
| 816 | If we were to go to the first stock price chart, Jakob, | 如果我们去第一个股票价格表,雅各布, |
| 817 | let me try to give some context here. | 让我在这里谈谈一些背景。 |
| 818 | As I mentioned, we studied a lot of different industries, a lot of different markets. | 正如我所提到的,我们研究了很多不同的行业,很多不同的市场. |
| 819 | And this particular stock price chart, it's a mystery chart. | 而这个特殊的股票价格图表,是一个神秘的图表. |
| 820 | Which is, what firm is it? | 是哪个公司? |
| 821 | And it turns out that we learn things from other markets. | 结果我们从其他市场学到了一些东西。 |
| 822 | Think about low marginal costs, undifferentiated products, | 想想低廉的边际成本,无差别的产品, |
| 823 | consumer choice, it turns out that those things | 消费者的选择,结果发现这些东西 |
| 824 | can really put a lot of pressure on a company, | 能给公司带来很大压力 |
| 825 | even a fairly successful company. | 甚至一个相当成功的公司。 |
| 826 | So mobility was one of our verticals, | 所以机动性是我们垂直的 |
| 827 | but another vertical was video streaming. | 但另一个垂直是视频流 |
| 828 | And you think, well, | 你觉得,嗯, |
| 829 | what does video streaming have to do with mobility? | 视频流和移动有什么关系? |
| 830 | Well, it has the same kind of features, | 嗯,它有同样的特征, |
| 831 | low marginal costs, potentially undifferentiated products, | 低边际成本,潜在无差别产品, |
| 832 | consumers can switch, they can add, they can subtract. | 消费者可以切换,可以加,也可以减. |
| 833 | And Logan, maybe you could talk about the early days | 洛根,也许你可以谈谈早期 |
| 834 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我们跟踪这家公司的路线 | |
| 835 | and we were predicting that the stock wouldn't do very well. | 我们预测股票不会很好 |
| 836 | Yeah, so Ted, I don't know if you wanna reveal the name, | 是啊,所以泰德,我不知道 如果你想透露这个名字, |
| 837 | but we- Sure, sure, let's, yeah. | 但我们... 当然,我们走吧 |
| 838 | 这是Netflix的图表 | |
| 839 | which was a Wall Street darling, | 这是华尔街亲爱的, |
| 840 | but the story, there was bulls and bears | 但故事说,有公牛和熊 |
| 841 | in the analyst community. | 在分析社区。 |
| 842 | I was covering Netflix as an investor | 我以投资人的身份掩护Netflix |
| 843 | at the time of their great bull run. | 在他们奔跑的时候 |
| 844 | And the idea was that, well, okay, | 想法是, 好吧, 好吧, |
| 845 | so Netflix, they have a hit show, | 因此,Netflix, 他们有一个点击节目, |
| 846 | but they're investing billions of dollars in content. | 但他们正在投资数十亿美元的内容。 |
| 847 | So there's on this constant content wheel | 所以这个恒定的内容轮 |
| 848 | and you don't know which of the shows are gonna hit or not. | 你不知道哪部节目会打不打 |
| 849 | And their growth kind of ran out. | 他们的成长也快耗尽了 |
| 850 | You see right in the middle of this chart, | 你看这个图表中间, |
| 851 | they had one of the largest valuation wipeouts | 他们有一个最大的价值擦拭 |
| 852 | 在TMT历史上,TMT空间。 | |
| 853 | But they subsequently recovered | 但他们后来恢复了 |
| 854 | and a large part of that growth, | 和大部分的增长, |
| 855 | one of the catalysts of that recovery | 恢复的催化剂之一 |
| 856 | was their ability to be successful in other markets, | 是他们在其他市场上取得成功的能力, |
| 857 | in foreign markets. | 在外国市场。 |
| 858 | They sold their American content. | 他们卖了他们的美国内容。 |
| 859 | There was demand for American produced content, | 有需求 美国生产的内容, |
| 860 | but they also expanded globally | 但他们也在全球扩展了 |
| 861 | and they brought in shows like the Squid Games, | 他们带来了像Squid游戏, |
| 862 | which was a Korean show, | 那是韩剧 |
| 863 | which was supposed to be for a niche audience, | 应该是适合观众的 |
| 864 | which blew up into a global phenomenon | 被炸成全球现象 |
| 865 | and was one of their most popular series. | 也是他们最受欢迎的系列之一 |
| 866 | They made a lot of money off that. | 他们赚了很多钱 |
| 867 | And so they are an example of a recovery story | 所以,他们是康复故事的一个例子 |
| 868 | when they scaled the product scope, the differentiation. | 当他们缩小了产品范围, 区别。 |
| 869 | And so will we see similar behavior in the EV space? | 那么,我们会看到类似的行为 在EV空间? |
| 870 | Ted, what do you think? | 泰德,你觉得呢? |
| 871 | Yeah, exactly, exactly right, Logan. | 没错,没错,洛根 |
| 872 | This is why we were skeptical about Netflix. | 这就是为什么我们怀疑Netflix。 |
| 873 | We emphasized the low switching costs, | 我们强调转换成本低, |
| 874 | consumers being able to switch from Netflix | 消费者能够从Netflix转换 |
| 875 | to Prime Video to Disney, et cetera. | 给迪士尼的Prime视频等等 |
| 876 | But what did they do? | 但他们做了什么? |
| 877 | They figured out exactly what Logan said. | 他们很清楚洛根说的话 |
| 878 | There were things they learned | 他们学到了一些东西 |
| 879 | about the ability of Netflix to leverage content. | 关于Netflix对内容的杠杆能力. |
| 880 | And the key is here, they leveraged it globally. | 关键就在这里,他们利用它在全球。 |
| 881 | So go back to what Brian said. | 回到布莱恩说的话 |
| 882 | Brian said that it's very important | 布莱恩说这很重要 |
| 883 | for successful EV manufacturers to expand globally. | 使成功的EV制造商在全球扩展。 |
| 884 | Get economies of scale, | 获得规模经济, |
| 885 | get economies of scope geographically. | 实现地域范围经济。 |
| 886 | And let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 887 | Looks a little similar. | 看起来有点相似 |
| 888 | This is another mystery chart. | 这是另一个神秘的图表。 |
| 889 | What company is this? | 这是什么公司? |
| 890 | Well, it started out before 2006, | 嗯,它开始于2006年之前, |
| 891 | so it's an early firm. | 所以这是一个早期的公司。 |
| 892 | And the hint here is it's an EV manufacturer. | 这里的提示是,它是一个EV制造商。 |
| 893 | Logan, why don't you take this one | 洛根,你拿着这个吧 |
| 894 | and explain what you read into this chart | 并解释你读到的这个图表 |
| 895 | and what explains the dramatic increase | 何以解释剧增的原因 |
| 896 | in market cap beginning around 2021. | 从2021年开始市场封顶 |
| 897 | So this is a chart of BYD. | 这是BYD的图表。 |
| 898 | Brian, maybe you recognize this chart. | 布莱恩,也许你认得这个图表。 |
| 899 | Maybe it's familiar to you. | 也许这对你来说很熟悉。 |
| 900 | This is traded on the Hong Kong exchange, | 这是在香港交易所交易的 |
| 901 | but this was the time period, 2021, 2022, | 但这是2021年,2022年, |
| 902 | when BYD really accelerated. | 当BYD真的加速。 |
| 903 | They had new technologies coming to market. | 他们有新技术进入市场。 |
| 904 | Their manufacturing was better | 他们的制造更好 |
| 905 | and they overtook Tesla in terms of units. | 他们从单位上征服了特斯拉 |
| 906 | If you remember, or maybe the audience was unfamiliar, | 如果你还记得, 或也许观众不熟悉, |
| 907 | a large part of Tesla's narrative, | 大部分特斯拉的叙述, |
| 908 | Ted and I talked about narratives. | 泰德和我谈了叙事 |
| 909 | What's the actual story of the company? | 公司的实际故事是什么? |
| 910 | Yes, we can look at charts, | 是的,我们可以看看图表, |
| 911 | we can look at numbers and spreadsheets and all this, | 我们可以看数字、电子表格等等 |
| 912 | but when you actually meet executives | 但当你真正遇到高管 |
| 913 | such as Brian, they're gonna unpack your vision for you. | 比如布莱恩 他们会为你解开你的视线 |
| 914 | You ask them, what's the story of the company? | 你问他们公司的故事是什么? |
| 915 | So we talk about narratives. | 所以我们谈论叙事。 |
| 916 | Narratives drive valuation, | 叙述驱动估价, |
| 917 | narratives drive a lot of things in companies. | 叙事在公司里推动着很多事情 |
| 918 | And BYD's narrative was strengthening in China. | 而BYD的叙述在中国得到了加强. |
| 919 | At the same time, Tesla's narrative in China, | 同时,特斯拉在中国的叙述, |
| 920 | though a lot of people were bullish on it, | 虽然很多人都在上面 |
| 921 | was starting to stagnate. | 开始停滞不前。 |
| 922 | It was starting to slow down, growth was slowed down, | 它开始减慢, 增长放缓, |
| 923 | unit sales were slowing down, | 单位销售放缓, |
| 924 | incremental to the previous quarters. | 递增至前几个季度。 |
| 925 | And what you see here is the success of BYD | 你在这里看到的是BYD的成功 |
| 926 | overtaking Tesla and some others. | 超过特斯拉和其他一些。 |
| 927 | And we don't wanna say cementing as a leadership position | 我们不想说水泥是领导地位 |
| 928 | because in high tech, | 因为高科技 |
| 929 | you don't see competitors own the space for 20 or 30 years. | 你看不到竞争者 拥有空间20或30年。 |
| 930 | It doesn't work that way in tech, | 这在技术方面是行不通的 |
| 931 | at least behaviorally with stocks. | 至少行为与股票。 |
| 932 | But we saw BYD's rise and Tesla's relative stagnation. | 但我们看到了BYD的崛起和特斯拉的相对停滞. |
| 933 | And BYD is one of the current leaders in China | BYD是中国现任领导人之一 |
| 934 | and in other geos too, | 在其他的地质学中 |
| 935 | if we look at EU and the success they've had there, Ted. | 如果我们看看欧盟和他们的成功 泰德 |
| 936 | Thank you, Logan. | 谢谢你,洛根。 |
| 937 | So the commonality between these two charts is again, | 所以这两个图表的共同点是 |
| 938 | successful product differentiation, getting to scale, | 成功的产品区分, 开始规模化, |
| 939 | getting to scale geographically. | 进入地理范围。 |
| 940 | And there are also our network effects, | 还有我们的网络效应 |
| 941 | getting more people on a particular video platform | 让更多人在某个视频平台上 |
| 942 | that increases demand. | 这增加了需求。 |
| 943 | You also get network effects in EVs. | 在 EVs 中也会获得网络效果. |
| 944 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 945 | And this will be our last slide | 这是我们最后一张幻灯片 |
| 946 | in terms of the EV discussion. | 在EV讨论方面。 |
| 947 | And one of the things we've learned | 我们学到的一件事 |
| 948 | from talking to people like Brian | 与布莱恩这样的人交谈 |
| 949 | and many other industry leaders in high tech spaces | 以及许多其他高科技领域的行业领袖 |
| 950 | is that every once in a while, | 是否偶尔, |
| 951 | you're focused on your products, your competition, | 你专注于你的产品,你的竞争, |
| 952 | but it's also important to step back and look broadly. | 但同样重要的是 退后看一看 |
| 953 | And here are things that Brian may want to comment on, | 布莱恩可能想评论一下 |
| 954 | but I think what I'm watching for | 但我觉得我在看什么 |
| 955 | is just what are the new innovations? | 新的创新是什么? |
| 956 | How much demand boost will they generate? | 它们能产生多少需求? |
| 957 | What are the limitations on EVs, if any? | 对电子电视有何限制? |
| 958 | We touched on the question number two, | 我们谈到第二个问题, |
| 959 | will shared autonomous vehicles | 将共享自动车辆 |
| 960 | compete with passenger-owned EVs? | 与乘客拥有的EV竞争? |
| 961 | And I think Brian's judgment is that | 我认为布莱恩的判断是 |
| 962 | there's still gonna be a market for passenger-owned EVs, | 仍然会有一个市场 乘客拥有的EV, |
| 963 | even as the autonomous capabilities improve. | 甚至随着自主能力的提高。 |
| 964 | In the US, I think a big issue is the lack of infrastructure. | 在美国,我认为一个大的问题是缺乏基础设施。 |
| 965 | You saw the 10% adoption rate. | 你看到10%的收养率了 |
| 966 | We've had really bad policy, in my opinion, around EVs. | 在我看来,我们在EVs周围 政策很差 |
| 967 | Subsidizing purchases without subsidizing infrastructure, | 补贴购买,不补贴基础设施, |
| 968 | to me, it was a mistake. | 对我来说,这是一个错误。 |
| 969 | There's just been a very poor development | 刚刚进展很不好 |
| 970 | of EV charging stations. | 电压充电站。 |
| 971 | Plus, you don't have standards for the interfaces. | 此外,你没有接口的标准. |
| 972 | And then we haven't talked about it, | 然后我们没有谈论它, |
| 973 | but obviously a big factor with the EV industry is, | 但显然EV行业的一大因素是, |
| 974 | what are the equilibrium tariffs gonna be? | 平衡关税是多少? |
| 975 | And I don't know. | 则不知. |
| 976 | I don't know if anybody knows at this point, | 我不知道现在有没有人知道 |
| 977 | but those are some of the things we're looking at. | 但这些是我们所看到的 |
| 978 | And with that, let me close the presentation | 让我结束演讲 |
| 979 | that's different from what maybe, Brian, you expected, | 这与你预期的不一样 |
| 980 | because we got a lot of insights from you along the way, | 因为我们从你身边得到了很多的洞察力, |
| 981 | but maybe you would like to open it up to questions | 但也许你想打开它 问 |
| 982 | and see what's on people's minds. | 并观众生心. |
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