耶鲁管理学院前院长对话携程CEO孙洁：中美高科技产业的未来路
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | So hello, everyone, and welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event. | 大家好 欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京活动 |
| 0:10 | I'm Carolee Rafferty, the managing director of Yale Center Beijing and a Yale College | 我是卡罗莉·拉费蒂 北京耶鲁中心和耶鲁大学的经理 |
| 0:15 | alumna. | 校友们 |
| 0:18 | As part of the Greenberg Distinguished Colloquium, today we are honored and delighted to welcome | 作为格林伯格杰出学术讨论会的一部分,今天我们感到荣幸和高兴地欢迎 |
| 0:25 | our two speakers, Ted Snyder, the former dean, and current William S. Beinecke Professor | 我们的两位演讲者 前任院长泰德·斯奈德 现任威廉·S·贝内克教授 |
| 0:32 | of Economics and Management at the Yale School of Management, and Jane Sun, CEO of Chit.com | 耶鲁管理学院经济与管理系,Chit.com的CEO简孙 |
| 0:40 | Group, who will discuss the high-tech industries in China, U.S., and beyond. | 集团,将讨论中国,美国等地的高科技产业. |
| 0:48 | Ted is an economist specializing in industrial organizations and competition policy. | 泰德是一名经济学家,专门研究工业组织和竞争政策. |
| 0:55 | As former dean of the Yale School of Management, he led many important and visionary initiatives, | 作为耶鲁管理学院的前院长,他领导了许多重要和有远见的倡议, |
| 1:02 | including the Global Network of Advanced Management. | 包括全球高级管理网。 |
展开字幕全文（993 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | So hello, everyone, and welcome to this Yale Center Beijing event. | 大家好 欢迎来到耶鲁中心北京活动 |
| 2 | I'm Carolee Rafferty, the managing director of Yale Center Beijing and a Yale College | 我是卡罗莉·拉费蒂 北京耶鲁中心和耶鲁大学的经理 |
| 3 | alumna. | 校友们 |
| 4 | As part of the Greenberg Distinguished Colloquium, today we are honored and delighted to welcome | 作为格林伯格杰出学术讨论会的一部分,今天我们感到荣幸和高兴地欢迎 |
| 5 | our two speakers, Ted Snyder, the former dean, and current William S. Beinecke Professor | 我们的两位演讲者 前任院长泰德·斯奈德 现任威廉·S·贝内克教授 |
| 6 | of Economics and Management at the Yale School of Management, and Jane Sun, CEO of Chit.com | 耶鲁管理学院经济与管理系,Chit.com的CEO简孙 |
| 7 | Group, who will discuss the high-tech industries in China, U.S., and beyond. | 集团,将讨论中国,美国等地的高科技产业. |
| 8 | Ted is an economist specializing in industrial organizations and competition policy. | 泰德是一名经济学家,专门研究工业组织和竞争政策. |
| 9 | As former dean of the Yale School of Management, he led many important and visionary initiatives, | 作为耶鲁管理学院的前院长,他领导了许多重要和有远见的倡议, |
| 10 | including the Global Network of Advanced Management. | 包括全球高级管理网。 |
| 11 | Jane Sun has been at Chit.com Group since 2005, and as many of you know, is a distinguished | Jane Sun从2005年开始在Chit.com Group工作,你们很多人都知道,是一位杰出的 |
| 12 | business leader who has had many accolades, including being named as Fortune's Top 50 | 商业领袖,曾经拥有许多成就,包括被命名为"财富"前50名 |
| 13 | Most Powerful Women in Business. | 商业界最强大的女性 |
| 14 | Ted oversaw the founding and the growth of Yale Center Beijing from its very beginning | 泰德从一开始就监督耶鲁中心的成立和成长 |
| 15 | as the dean of Yale School of Management, and Jane Sun has been a longtime advisory | 作为耶鲁管理学院的院长 简·孙是个很长一段时间的顾问 |
| 16 | committee member of the center. | 中心委员会成员。 |
| 17 | So on behalf of the Yale Center Beijing, I would like to thank them heartily for their | 因此,我谨代表耶鲁北京中心衷心感谢他们 |
| 18 | continued support. | 继续提供支助。 |
| 19 | So the evening and or morning for some of you will proceed as follows. | 你们中一部分人,在傍晚和早晨,将遵循以下路线。 |
| 20 | First, Ted will give a presentation that's based on his research and coursework on economics | 首先,我们... Ted会根据他的研究 和经济学课程来做一个演讲 |
| 21 | on high-tech industries. | 在高科技行业。 |
| 22 | After that, Ted and Jane will discuss about how technology will continue to shape our | 之后,Ted和Jane会讨论科技如何继续塑造我们 |
| 23 | world and our future, and then following that, we will have a Q&A session with the audience | 之后,我们将与观众举行“QQA”会议。 |
| 24 | during which I'll ask all of you to submit your questions in the chat box, and we'll | 在此期间,我会请大家 在聊天箱里提交问题,我们会 |
| 25 | select some of them for our distinguished speakers to answer. | 请选择其中一部分,请尊敬的发言者回答。 |
| 26 | 因此,让我们欢迎Ted Snyder教授和Jane。 | |
| 27 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 28 | Thank you very much, Carol, for the warm introduction. | 非常感谢 卡罗尔 热情的介绍 |
| 29 | And as my screens get set up for sharing, let me just say it's just wonderful to see | 当我的屏幕被设定 分享,让我只说 它只是美妙的看到 |
| 30 | how under your leadership and the support of your staff, I think of Joyce and so many | 在你的带领和你的员工的支持下 我想到了乔伊丝和这么多 |
| 31 | others of your team, that Yale Center Beijing has realized the great hope that we had for | 北京耶鲁中心已经意识到了 我们所希望的 |
| 32 | it, and I'm so grateful to you. | 我很感谢你 |
| 33 | It brings back fond memories about the decision-making and the choice of location | 它带回了对决策和地点选择的美好回忆 |
| 34 | and the gratitude that we have towards Neal Shen and other donors who have allowed us | 感谢沈尼尔和其他捐赠者允许我们 |
| 35 | to do this important work. | 完成这项重要工作。 |
| 36 | So thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 37 | So I'm going to share some slides and go through a presentation, and then as Carol | 所以我要分享一些幻灯片 然后通过一个演示 然后作为卡罗尔 |
| 38 | mentioned, we'll get commentary by Jane Sun. | 提到过,我们会得到简孙的评论。 |
| 39 | And by way of background, and maybe we could get to slide two, if that's possible, Joyce. | 而通过背景,也许我们可以 滑动2,如果可能,乔伊丝。 |
| 40 | As I go through this, let me just foreshadow where I will focus in terms of important | 在我经历这些之后,让我先预示一下,我将在哪些方面集中关注重要的 |
| 41 | topics. | 专题。 |
| 42 | One is, where will China lead in terms of high tech? | 一是中国高科技领先何方?. |
| 43 | 这个叫SplinterNet的东西是什么? | |
| 44 | What's that about? | 这是怎么回事? |
| 45 | Third, and I know this is of interest to a lot of companies, a lot of individuals, teams, | 第三,我知道这对很多公司, 很多个人,团队, |
| 46 | 包括Tripp.com和Tripp集团. | |
| 47 | What does the advance to 5G mean for business? | 预付到5G对生意意味着什么? |
| 48 | And then the last topic concerns policy issues that are being raised actually around the | 然后,最后一个议题是实际上围绕以下主题提出的政策问题: |
| 49 | world about so-called dominant tech platforms. | 关于所谓的主导技术平台 |
| 50 | So those are the four topics that I will get to. | 因此,这些是我将要讨论的四个议题。 |
| 51 | Let's go to the next slide, which covers some background. | 让我们看下一张幻灯片,它包含一些背景。 |
| 52 | As Carol mentioned, I teach a class, Economic Analysis of High Tech Industries, and I'm | 正如卡罗尔所说,我教了一个班,高科技工业的经济分析,我 |
| 53 | fortunate enough to have students from both Yale and the Global Network for Advanced | 幸运的是,有来自耶鲁大学和全球先进网络的学生 |
| 54 | Management join the class. | 管理层加入班级. |
| 55 | It's interesting for me as an economist to focus on high tech industries, but I've been | 作为经济学家,关注高科技产业很有趣,但我一直 |
| 56 | doing that a long time. | 做了很长时间。 |
| 57 | I'm not a technology expert, but what I know how to do is take economic concepts and within | 我不是技术专家 但我知道该怎么做 采取经济概念 并在内部 |
| 58 | the field of economics, so-called industrial organization concepts, and apply them to lots | 经济学领域,所谓的工业组织概念,并将其应用于众多领域 |
| 59 | of different industries, high tech, non-high tech, and one learns about how industries | 不同行业,高科技,非高科技, 以及人们学习如何产业 |
| 60 | develop to address underlying economic challenges and realize gains for producers and consumers. | 发展以应对潜在的经济挑战,并为生产者和消费者实现收益。 |
| 61 | So if we go to the next slide, the course itself, I must say I'm very proud of, is organized | 所以,如果我们去下一张幻灯片, 课程本身,我必须说我非常自豪, 是有组织的 |
| 62 | around a matrix of four so-called verticals or industries, mobility, streaming, video, | 由四个所谓的纵向或行业组成的矩阵 流动 流线 视频 |
| 63 | which of course is hugely important to all of us now, e-commerce, and payment systems. | 当然,对于我们所有人来说,电子商务和支付系统都非常重要。 |
| 64 | Just so you know, the way we think about it, the travel industry and companies like Trip | 你知道,我们的想法, 旅行行业和公司喜欢Trip |
| 65 | are part of e-commerce. | 是电子商务的一部分。 |
| 66 | And then on the geographic dimension, it's China, EU, and US. | 在地理方面,是中国、欧盟和美国。 |
| 67 | So we go to the next slide. | 所以我们去下一个幻灯片。 |
| 68 | What's different about this course is it's really not me providing great insights. | 这门课程的不同之处在于 它真的不是我提供伟大的见解。 |
| 69 | It's me organizing, TED organizes a learning system. | 这是我组织,TED组织一个学习系统。 |
| 70 | I do provide the insights on economics and special topics like vertical integration by platform | 我确实提供了对经济学和特殊议题的见解,如按平台的纵向整合 |
| 71 | companies. | 企业。 |
| 72 | But what makes this course particularly valuable is that I'm able to get people like Jane Sun | 但这个课程最有价值的是 我能找到简孙这样的人 |
| 73 | to join as leaders in the high tech sector and contribute to the class. | 成为高科技部门的领导者,为班级做出贡献。 |
| 74 | And Jane, among all of the amazing people who do contribute to the class, she's contributed | 珍,在那些为班级贡献力量的人中,她的贡献 |
| 75 | the most. | 最厉害的 |
| 76 | I'm so grateful to Jane for her friendship, her colleagueship, her commitment to education, | 我非常感谢简的友谊, 她的同事,她对教育的承诺, |
| 77 | and specifically her contributions to this class. | 特别是她在这个班级的贡献。 |
| 78 | The class also deals with valuation. | 该类还涉及估价. |
| 79 | High tech industries and firms are hard to value. | 高科技产业和企业难以估价. |
| 80 | But I have a contributor on that front. | 但我有这方面的贡献。 |
| 81 | And the classes, in many ways, focus on the development of hypotheses. | 而班级在许多方面都专注于假设的发展. |
| 82 | And my view is that people in business and students should always be trying to be clear | 我的观点是 商界人士和学生 总是要明白 |
| 83 | about what do they believe and why. | 他们信仰什么,信仰什么。 |
| 84 | Not that they will always be right, but by being clear, one understands why it is that | 并不是说他们永远是正确的, 但是,通过清楚,我们理解为什么 |
| 85 | the company or the team is proceeding in a certain way. | 公司或团队正在以某种方式进行。 |
| 86 | And over time, and sometimes it's a very short period of time, one finds out that your | 随着时间的推移,有时很短的一段时间, 人们发现你 |
| 87 | hypothesis may be right or may be wrong or may require adjustment. | 假设可能是对的,也可能是错的,或者可能需要调整. |
| 88 | And along with that, changes in behavior. | 与此同时,行为也发生了变化。 |
| 89 | And then we have team projects. | 然后我们有团队项目。 |
| 90 | And you will recall the matrix. | 你会记得矩阵。 |
| 91 | I have a team assigned to each cell in the matrix. | 我给每个细胞都派了一个小组 |
| 92 | So for example, one of the teams will do payment systems in China. | 例如,其中一支队伍将在中国实行支付制度。 |
| 93 | All right, go to the next slide. | 好吧,去下一个幻灯片。 |
| 94 | Here are some sample materials. | 这是一些样本材料。 |
| 95 | I've written a lot of original material for this class. | 我为这个班写了很多原始材料. |
| 96 | I'm not sure what I should do with it. | 不知应何用. |
| 97 | But some of them are things, IO topics like network economies and their relevance. | 但其中一些是事物,IO主题如网络经济及其相关性. |
| 98 | And of course, it's extremely important in high tech. | 当然,这在高科技中非常重要。 |
| 99 | And then there are these industry briefs on particular topics like payment systems. | 接下来是一些行业简报, 是关于支付系统等特定主题的。 |
| 100 | And I try to put them into a historical context. | 我试图把它们放在历史背景中。 |
| 101 | Because we may think of Alipay and Apple Pay and all these new | 因为我们可能想到 阿里帕伊和苹果支付 和所有这些新的 |
| 102 | payment systems as new. | 作为新的支付系统。 |
| 103 | But actually, we've had payment systems for a long time. | 但实际上,我们已经有了很长一段时间的付款系统。 |
| 104 | And it's useful to have some historical context. | 并且有一些历史背景是有用的. |
| 105 | And then example of the hypothesis in the upper right-hand corner. | 然后在右上角做假设的例子. |
| 106 | Uber被高估了. | |
| 107 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 108 | Because of underlying economics. | 因为基础经济学。 |
| 109 | Switching costs are not that difficult for people seeking rides. | 换乘费用对寻求搭车的人来说并不困难。 |
| 110 | And also because of Uber's inability to realize geographic economies of scope. | 还因为Uber无法实现地域经济的范围. |
| 111 | Now, you may not agree with that hypothesis, but at least it's written down. | 现在,你可能不同意这个假设, 但至少它写下来了。 |
| 112 | And that's the kind of value I think that... | 这就是我认为的价值... |
| 113 | Well, at least there's potential value in writing that down. | 至少写下来有潜在价值 |
| 114 | So that's the course. | 故曰道场. |
| 115 | One more slide, I think, on that. | 再来一张,我想,在那个上。 |
| 116 | Oh, there are two more. | 哦,还有两个。 |
| 117 | I'm sorry. | 对不起 |
| 118 | So here are examples of what the teams produce. | 下面是团队生产的例子。 |
| 119 | The upper left-hand corner is a case study on Uber valuation based on a SOTP model. | 左上角是一个基于SOTP模型的关于Uber估值的案例研究. |
| 120 | And some of you may be aware that that stands for some of the parts. | 你们中有些人可能知道 这代表了其中的一些部分。 |
| 121 | So that's one of the valuation frameworks. | 所以,这就是一个估价框架。 |
| 122 | And then the right-hand side are slides that identify how different actors | 然后右手边是显示不同角色的幻灯片 |
| 123 | in various industries organize their activity. | 在不同行业组织其活动。 |
| 124 | And the so-called line and box charts end up being very helpful. | 而所谓的线条和框图最终非常有帮助. |
| 125 | Because these businesses, these firms can get unbelievably complicated. | 因为这些企业,这些公司会变得非常复杂。 |
| 126 | So the students, I think, are doing a very good job of using these kinds of charts. | 所以,我认为,学生们在使用这些图表方面做得非常好。 |
| 127 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 128 | If we could go to the next slide. | 如果我们能到下一个幻灯片。 |
| 129 | And as I mentioned, we've got great contributors like Jane and Neal Shen. | 正如我所提到的,我们有像Jane和Neal Shen这样的优秀贡献者。 |
| 130 | But I think I'm just fortunate to be at Yale because I can draw on the global network | 但我觉得在耶鲁很幸运 因为我能从全球网络中吸取经验 |
| 131 | for advanced management. | 高级管理。 |
| 132 | I can draw on the work done by my colleagues around the network on global virtual teams. | 我可以借鉴我的同事在全球虚拟团队网络上所做的工作。 |
| 133 | So I attract students who are sort of, you know, they want to be outliers | 所以我吸引了一些学生 他们想成为外人 |
| 134 | in working across boundaries. | 跨边界工作。 |
| 135 | I'm very excited about that. | 我很兴奋 |
| 136 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 137 | So that's background. | 这就是背景。 |
| 138 | Let's go to the next slide. | 下一张幻灯片 |
| 139 | So this is topic number one. | 所以这是第一题。 |
| 140 | Where will China lead in terms of high tech? | 中国高科技领先何方?. |
| 141 | And Neal Shen, I think, has helped me understand this. | 尼尔 沈,我想,帮助我理解了这一点。 |
| 142 | The U.S. led in what he referred to as the first phase of digital transformations. | 美国领导了他所说的第一阶段数字化改造. |
| 143 | And that leadership by the U.S. was driven by basically Silicon Valley | 而美国的领导者 基本上由硅谷驱动 |
| 144 | being on the cutting edge of technologies. | 处于技术的前沿。 |
| 145 | Now we're into a different phase, much more focused on implementation and impact. | 现在我们进入了不同的阶段,更注重执行和影响力. |
| 146 | And China has great advantages now compared to, I think, every other country in the world. | 而中国现在比起,我认为,世界上每一个其他国家,都有巨大的优势. |
| 147 | They include population density and with that comes very strong network effects. | 它们包括人口密度,随之而来的是非常强大的网络效应。 |
| 148 | They have their own, you know, amazing high tech industry. | 他们有自己的,你知道,惊人的高科技产业。 |
| 149 | Instead of following or being a fast follower, | 而不是跟随或迅速跟随 |
| 150 | I think it's well recognized by many commentary that, for example, the economist, | 我认为许多评论都承认,例如经济学家, |
| 151 | that China is not following anymore. | 中国不再跟随。 |
| 152 | China is leapfrogging and developing cutting edge technologies and rapid adoption by users. | 中国正在跃进和发展尖端技术,并被用户迅速采用。 |
| 153 | Here's a trivia question. | 有个三维问题 |
| 154 | How many U.S. cities have more than 4 million people? | 美国有多少个城市人口超过400万?. |
| 155 | The answer is, okay, Carol, can you give your answer? | 答案是,卡罗尔,你能回答吗? |
| 156 | Partly it's going to depend on whether you define city or SMSA, but go ahead. | 部分取决于您是否定义城市或短信,但请继续。 |
| 157 | I'm just guessing under 10. | 我只是猜测10岁以下。 |
| 158 | There are two, according to my data. | 根据我的数据,有两个 |
| 159 | There's New York and Los Angeles. | 有纽约和洛杉矶。 |
| 160 | Next trivia question. | 下个三维问题 |
| 161 | How many cities are there in China with more than 4 million people? | 中国有多少个城市人口超过400万人?. |
| 162 | Somebody can post answers to this in the chat, but I have a count that says 20. | 有人可以在聊天时张贴答案 但我有20个数字 |
| 163 | And when it comes to implementation and dealing with the so-called, for example, | 当涉及到执行和处理所谓的,例如, |
| 164 | last kilometer effect of getting goods and services delivered, density is really valuable. | 最后的千米效果 交付货物和服务,密度是真正宝贵的。 |
| 165 | So that's one of the advantages, inherent advantages that China has at this stage. | 这就是中国现阶段的优势之一,固有优势. |
| 166 | I mentioned the cutting edge technologies by Chinese companies, and one example is a new GPS | 我提到中国公司的尖端技术 一个例子是新的GPS |
| 167 | technology that is being developed and implemented by Baidu Satellite Constellation. | Baidu卫星星座正在开发和实施的技术。 |
| 168 | And by the way, they have competitors. | 顺便说一句,他们有竞争对手。 |
| 169 | There's a U.S. firm based in Colorado that's trying to do the same thing, | 科罗拉多州的一家美国公司 也想做同样的事情 |
| 170 | but it uses constellations of satellites to make the location of individuals much more precise. | 但它利用卫星星座 让个人的位置更加精确 |
| 171 | Instead of 5 to 10 meters, it's down to under 1 meter. | 与其说5至10米,不如说降到1米以下. |
| 172 | And think of that in terms of the impact on so-called micromobility solutions, | 想想这对所谓的微移动性解决方案的影响 |
| 173 | which are very important in many cities in the world. | 这在世界上许多城市都很重要。 |
| 174 | And then I think it's generally agreed that, again, if you read The Economist magazine, | 然后我想大家都同意 如果你读《经济学家》杂志 |
| 175 | China is really emerging as the leader in e-commerce. | 中国正真正成为电子商务的领先者。 |
| 176 | Some of this may be policy related. | 其中一些可能与政策有关。 |
| 177 | China has had a more flexible, one might say liberal attitude towards how individual firms | 中国对个体企业的态度比较灵活 |
| 178 | 就像Tencent和Alibaba可以组织活动。 | |
| 179 | So they have extremely complicated business models, but they're also more comprehensive | 因此,他们有极其复杂的商业模式, 但也更加全面 |
| 180 | in nature. | 在自然界中。 |
| 181 | So that's topic number one. | 这就是第一题 |
| 182 | Let's go to topic number two. | 我们来谈谈第二题 |
| 183 | Next slide. | 下一个幻灯片。 |
| 184 | SplinterNet. | 斯普林特网. |
| 185 | So I'm not surprised by the concept of SplinterNet. | 所以我对SplinterNet的概念并不感到惊讶. |
| 186 | I was a naive economist back in 1989, early 90s, | 我在1989年是一位天真的经济学家 90年代初 |
| 187 | and I thought the world was going to converge. | 我以为世界会融为一体 |
| 188 | There'd be cultural differences, of course, but I thought we would have very similar economic | 当然会有文化上的差异 但我想我们会有非常相似的经济 |
| 189 | systems, and that's, of course, naive. | 这当然是天真的 |
| 190 | But now what we see with especially global communications and the build out of 5G, | 但是现在我们看到的 特别全球通讯 和5G的建设, |
| 191 | 我们看到一个新兴的SplinterNet。 | |
| 192 | And my view is that the issues around SplinterNet are, are we going to be more on the end of | 我的观点是,关于斯普林特网的问题是, 我们是否将会更加关注 |
| 193 | pretty global, or are we going to be more on the end of regional and country-based systems? | 相当全球性,还是我们更倾向于区域和国家系统? |
| 194 | We're going to be somewhere in the middle when it comes to the spectrum of globalization | 我们将会处在中间的某个地方 当它涉及到全球化的范畴 |
| 195 | and localization, because we don't have globalization in its pure form. | 和本地化,因为我们没有 全球化的纯粹形式。 |
| 196 | We don't have disconnected countries and regions either, but what's the patchwork | 我们也没有与国家和地区脱节,但什么是零散的 |
| 197 | that's going to be put together? | 这会被拼凑在一起? |
| 198 | So SplinterNet, I think when you look at the evidence that is available around the world, | 所以,斯普林特网,我想当你看 全世界可以得到的证据, |
| 199 | has already happened. | 已经发生了。 |
| 200 | So one issue is just how deep will it be? | 所以,有一个问题就是它会有多深? |
| 201 | You've got Google in China, you've got WeChat under Trump administration, we have Qualcomm, | 你有谷歌在中国, 你有 WeChat 在特朗普管理, 我们有Qualcomm, |
| 202 | 我们有华威,印度和Facebook | |
| 203 | There are lots of concerns about data security, telecom infrastructure, in part because 5G, | 对数据安全、电信基础设施有许多关切,部分原因是5G, |
| 204 | the build out of 5G involves a very different kind of infrastructure with respect to antennae. | 5G的建造涉及一种与天线不同的基础设施。 |
| 205 | 让我们记住连接SplinterNet和5G. | |
| 206 | What will happen? | 会发生什么? |
| 207 | I don't know, but I think the best way to think about SplinterNet | 我不知道,但我觉得最好的办法 思考SplinterNet |
| 208 | is that there will be multiple dimensions, and maybe we could go to the next slide. | 会有多个维度,也许我们可以去下一张幻灯片。 |
| 209 | The advance to 5G. | 预付到5G |
| 210 | I just said SplinterNet is already here, and we'll look at how deep the splits are | 我刚刚说SplinterNet已经在这里, 我们会看看 分裂有多深 |
| 211 | and how many dimensions there will be. | 还有会有多少维度 |
| 212 | The advance to 5G is a really important topic for high-tech industries. | 向5G的推进是高科技产业的一个真正重要的课题. |
| 213 | Many of you know this, but we started out with 1G and then 2, 3, 4, 5G, | 你们中很多人都知道 但我们一开始是用1G 然后是2、3、4、5G |
| 214 | and the G's refer to generations of telecommunications technologies and infrastructure. | 以及G指代几代电信技术和基础设施. |
| 215 | Well, you might think of 5G as just another G. | 好吧,你可能会认为5G只是另一个G。 |
| 216 | It's just the next one. | 下个而已 |
| 217 | I think that's wrong. | 我认为这是错误的。 |
| 218 | It's so much faster than 4G, up to 100 times as fast. | 它比4G快得多,最高可达100倍. |
| 219 | But the implementation is far behind what I would call the hype about 5G, at least in the US. | 但至少在美国, |
| 220 | I see all these ads about 5G networks from Verizon and AT&T. | 我从Verizon和AT&T的5G网络上看到所有这些广告。 |
| 221 | They don't exist. | 他们不存在。 |
| 222 | We're still implementing 4G, so it's just a misleading advertising campaign. | 我们仍在实施4G,所以这只是误导性的广告宣传. |
| 223 | One of the reasons why we're behind with the implementation is that, | 我们之所以落后于执行的原因之一是, |
| 224 | as I alluded to earlier, the build-out of 5G is different. | 正如我先前提到的那样,5G的建造情况不同。 |
| 225 | It involves, instead of relatively few cell towers, | 它涉及,而不是相对较少的细胞塔, |
| 226 | it involves many, many small antennae being installed everywhere. | 它涉及到许多,许多小天线 被安装在任何地方。 |
| 227 | That takes time. | 这需要时间。 |
| 228 | There are property rights issues. | 有产权问题. |
| 229 | Who's going to control the networks and the infrastructure? | 谁能控制网络和基础设施? |
| 230 | But it's a slow process. | 但它是一个缓慢的过程。 |
| 231 | But I think the hype will be realized. | 但我认为这首歌会实现的 |
| 232 | It's not just because of the transmission speeds. | 不仅因为传输速度快. |
| 233 | That's important. | 这很重要 |
| 234 | You'll be able to download a full-length movie in just a very short period of time, a few seconds. | 可以在很短的时间内,几秒钟内下载一部完整的电影. |
| 235 | 通过所谓的IOT, Internet of Ththings, 5G的许多效果会是间接的, | |
| 236 | because when 5G is fully implemented, not only will people be connected to each other, | 因为当5G被完全执行, 不仅人们会互相连接, |
| 237 | people will be connected to many more machines, | 人们会连上更多的机器 |
| 238 | and machines will be connected to each other, hence the Internet of Things. | 机器将互相连接, 从而连接到"事物"的互联网。 |
| 239 | Take one industry for an example, ride sharing. | 以一个行业为例,骑马共享. |
| 240 | Will ride sharing benefit from faster speed under 5G? | 5G以下的更快速度会给乘车共享带来好处吗?. |
| 241 | Yes, but that's not a very big deal. | 是的,但这没什么大不了的。 |
| 242 | It's a little bit faster to find a ride and so forth. | 寻 a骑等稍快. |
| 243 | But if you think about the indirect effect through IoT, | 但如果你通过IOT想到间接影响 |
| 244 | 5G will probably change ride sharing because it will bring to us autonomous vehicles, | 5G可能会改变骑车共享,因为它会给我们带来自主的车辆, |
| 245 | and part of the autonomous vehicle build-out will be through sharing. | 而部分自主车辆的建造将通过共享来实现。 |
| 246 | There'll be a mix of public-private shared autonomous vehicles, but my guess is, | 会有公私共享的自主车辆 但我猜 |
| 247 | based on people I know and who contribute to the class, | 以我认识的人和为班级作出贡献的人为基础 |
| 248 | is that the current model of ride sharing will go away in part because of 5G | 现在的乘务共享模式 将部分消失 因为5G |
| 249 | and this indirect effect. | 和这种间接影响。 |
| 250 | Carol, I hope I'm doing okay on time. | 卡罗尔,我希望我没事 |
| 251 | I have one more topic, so let's go to the next slide. | 我还有一个话题,让我们去下一张幻灯片。 |
| 252 | Last fall, when I taught the course, I recall that during the time that the semester unfolded, | 去年秋天,当我教这门课时 我记得在学期期间 |
| 253 | antitrust agencies in China put out so-called draft guidelines for major digital platforms. | 中国的反托拉斯机构提出了所谓主要数字平台准则草案。 |
| 254 | During that time period, the US government, | 在此期间,美国政府, |
| 255 | Department of Justice filed a case against Google, | 司法部对Google提起诉讼, |
| 256 | and the EU brought multiple cases against platforms that are headquartered in the US, | 欧盟对总部设在美国的平台提起了多项诉讼, |
| 257 | but that operate in Europe. | 但在欧洲运作。 |
| 258 | I labeled that the start of the World Cup of global antitrust and competition policy enforcement. | 我给世界杯打上标签, |
| 259 | This is a little bit of a specialty of mine, but basically, the way antitrust policy | 这有点是我的专长 但基本上 反托拉斯政策的方式 |
| 260 | began, Canada started in 1989. | 加拿大始于1989年。 |
| 261 | The US added the antitrust law referred to as the Sherman Act in 1890, | 美国在1890年加入了被称为"谢尔曼法案"的反托拉斯法, |
| 262 | and now, 130 years later, we have about 130 countries | 现在,130年后,我们约有130个国家 |
| 263 | that have their own competition policy and enforcement. | 拥有自己的竞争政策和执法。 |
| 264 | Virtually all of the world GDP is under some kind of competition enforcement agency. | 世界上几乎所有的国内生产总值都隶属于某种竞争执法机构。 |
| 265 | What are the concerns about these platforms? | 这些平台有什么关切? |
| 266 | There are many. | 还有很多 |
| 267 | Countries have different approaches, but the concerns include political power. | 各国有不同的做法,但关切包括政治权力。 |
| 268 | I'm not an expert on China, even though I've had the opportunity to visit | 我不是中国专家 虽然我有机会来 |
| 269 | since 1992, many, many times, but in the US, there's a lot of concern about political power | 从1992年开始,很多,很多次, 但在美国, 政治权力有很多关注 |
| 270 | because, for example, the founder of Amazon now owns one of the major newspapers in the country. | 因为,例如,亚马逊的创始人现在拥有国内主要报纸之一. |
| 271 | Amazon is now moving into a deal where they will distribute the broadcast rights | 亚马逊公司现在正在做一项交易 他们将分配广播权 |
| 272 | to American professional football, the so-called NFL. | 到美国职业足球, 所谓的NFL。 |
| 273 | These are things that, how did a bookseller that started out in 1995 become so much everywhere? | 这些事情,一个1995年开始的书商 怎么会变得无处不在? |
| 274 | For those of you who spent time in New Haven, you might be interested to know that the Amazon | 对于在纽黑文度过时间的人来说 你们可能有兴趣知道亚马逊河 |
| 275 | trucks and vans are everywhere. | 卡车和面包车到处都是 |
| 276 | Political power, privacy, vertical integration by platforms is an interesting one. | 政治权力,隐私,平台的纵向融合是一个有趣的问题. |
| 277 | And by the way, I'm not taking sides in these debates right now. | 顺便说一句,我现在不会站在辩论的一边。 |
| 278 | I'm just trying to identify what are the concerns. | 我只是想找出问题所在 |
| 279 | I happen to have an iPhone, and when I go to the app store, I get an ad for Apple arcade games. | 我碰巧有一个iPhone, 当我去应用商店, 我得到了苹果街机游戏的广告。 |
| 280 | Now that means that Apple has developed their own video games. | 现在这意味着苹果公司已经开发了自己的电子游戏. |
| 281 | That's an example of vertical integration, broadening the scope. | 这是一个纵向整合的例子,扩大了范围. |
| 282 | Lines of business, of course, have been increased by not only US companies, but | 当然,不仅美国公司增加了业务范围,而且 |
| 283 | Alibaba and Tencent are examples of that. | 阿里巴巴和特森特就是这方面的例子。 |
| 284 | I mean, Tencent, and I've had the great honor of meeting Pony Ma three times. | 我的意思是,Tencent, 我有一个伟大的荣誉 会见马小马三次。 |
| 285 | It's really, and visited Tencent twice, but it's an amazing company. | 它真的,并两次访问Tencent, 但这是一个惊人的公司。 |
| 286 | But they've moved into everything. | 但他们已经进入了一切 |
| 287 | That's an overstatement, but WeChat, texting, e-commerce payments, video streaming. | 这是夸张,但 WeChat,发短信,电子商务支付,视频流。 |
| 288 | Tencent是Metuan和Pindoto等众多公司的主要投资者, | |
| 289 | Didi, and their investments have paid off. | 迪蒂,他们的投资已经兑现。 |
| 290 | And you know Alibaba, and B2B platform becomes B2C, and C2C, and integrated payment systems. | 而且你知道阿里巴巴,B2B平台成为B2C,C2C,以及综合支付系统. |
| 291 | So I think what we see underneath this is build out of companies reflecting network economies, | 因此,我认为,我们所看到的是 从公司建设 反映网络经济, |
| 292 | and economies of scale and scope. | 和范围经济。 |
| 293 | And what's interesting to me as an economist is when you watch all the countries deal with | 作为一个经济学家,我感兴趣的是 当你看着所有国家处理 |
| 294 | these issues, there is no real overall framework for understanding what should be done. | 不存在真正的总体框架来理解应该做些什么。 |
| 295 | And these are new kinds of efficiencies that are realized by what some people call dominant firms. | 这些都是新的效率, 被一些人称为主导企业。 |
| 296 | I'm a little skeptical that the firms are dominant forever because there's always innovation, | 我有点怀疑这些公司 永远占据主导地位 因为总有创新 |
| 297 | but that's the underlying concern. | 但这是根本的担忧。 |
| 298 | And with that, I'd like to pause. | 有了这个 我想暂停一下 |
| 299 | I was glad to see that Jane Sun, I mean, that's an understatement, | 我很高兴看到简・孙,我的意思是, 这是一个小说, |
| 300 | was willing to offer some comments and questions. | 愿意提出一些意见和问题。 |
| 301 | But Jane, I think one question I have for you as CEO of Tripp Group is, | 但是Jane 我有一个问题要问你 作为Tripp集团的首席执行官 |
| 302 | am I right or wrong about 5G and the impact on, for example, | 5G对错吗? |
| 303 | the services that a company like Tripp could offer consumers? | 像Tripp这样的公司可以为消费者提供的服务? |
| 304 | How do you see 5G? | 如何见五G. |
| 305 | Yeah, 5G will play a very important role in our daily life. | 是啊,5G将在我们的日常生活中扮演非常重要的角色. |
| 306 | Right now, Internet of Things really goes deeper in our family usage, | 现在,“事物”的互联网 对我们家庭的使用来说确实更深了, |
| 307 | in every perspective, robots, cleaners, everything. | 在每一个角度,机器人,清洁工,一切。 |
| 308 | So with the penetration of the 5G, we anticipate our service team, as well as on the ground, | 因此,随着5G的渗透, 我们期待我们的服务团队, 以及地面, |
| 309 | our tour guides, everybody will be very much empowered by the 5G. | 我们的导游,每个人都将得到 5G的极大权力。 |
| 310 | The idea of SplinterNet, Jane, I think is fascinating. | 斯普林特网的想法,简,我觉得很迷人. |
| 311 | But I think of travel as an area where the underlying rationale is going to counter | 但我认为旅行是 一个领域的基本原理 是要去对抗 |
| 312 | these splits, just like you would say a delivery of a package. | 就像你说的送包裹一样 |
| 313 | If you have to transfer the package from one regional firm to another regional firm, | 如果你必须把一揽子计划从一个区域公司转移到另一个区域公司, |
| 314 | that's inefficient. | 这太低效率了 |
| 315 | But it's even more so odd to think about a family traveling in different regions, | 但想到一个家庭在不同地区旅行 更奇怪了 |
| 316 | the EU, Latin America, and China. | 欧盟、拉丁美洲和中国。 |
| 317 | So isn't travel a great way to sort of counter SplinterNet? | 所以,旅行是不是一个伟大的方式 排序反SplinterNet? |
| 318 | Absolutely, absolutely. | 当然,绝对的。 |
| 319 | I'm personally very committed. | 我个人很坚定 |
| 320 | By using travel, we can bring people from different nations, different races, | 通过使用旅行,我们可以带来来自不同国家,不同种族的人, |
| 321 | different religions together. | 不同的宗教在一起。 |
| 322 | No matter where I go, whether it's a poor village in Africa, or a refugee camp, | 不管我去哪里,无论是非洲的一个贫穷村庄,还是难民营, |
| 323 | or in the USA, or Australia, people talk very similar topics. | 或在美国,或澳大利亚, 人们谈论非常相似的主题。 |
| 324 | We want our kids to have good education, | 我们希望我们的孩子有良好的教育, |
| 325 | to have our young people have good career paths, | 让年轻人有良好的职业道路, |
| 326 | and have our families to have peaceful and happy lives. | 让家人过上和平快乐的生活 |
| 327 | It doesn't vary so much because of the religion, because of their nationality. | 因为宗教,因为他们的国籍,变化不大. |
| 328 | So really, when we meet people from people, that's the best way to eliminate | 所以,真的,当我们遇到的人 从人,这是最好的方法消除 |
| 329 | and reduce misunderstanding. | 并减少误解。 |
| 330 | So I'm very committed to using travel as a mean to bridge the difference | 所以我非常致力于利用旅行来弥补分歧 |
| 331 | and bring people together. | 并聚集众生. |
| 332 | So, Jane, you and I have talked about this, and you're obviously passionate about travel. | Jane 你和我谈过了 你显然热衷于旅行 |
| 333 | I'm passionate about global interaction. | 我热衷于全球互动 |
| 334 | That's one reason why I was so happy that we have Yale Center Beijing. | 这就是为什么我这么高兴 我们有耶鲁中心北京。 |
| 335 | But what advice do you have for people who are worried about travel | 但是,你有什么建议 对于那些担心旅行的人 |
| 336 | to a particular country because of, oh, well, my app won't work there, | 因为,哦,嗯,我的应用不会在那里工作, |
| 337 | and I'm concerned about data security and all these other things? | 我担心数据安全 还有其他的事情? |
| 338 | I think for Chinese people, they're probably very bored. | 我觉得对中国人来说 他们可能很无聊 |
| 339 | We have been through much worse. | 我们经历了更糟糕的。 |
| 340 | So I don't think the internet will deter us from going anywhere. | 所以我觉得互联网不会阻止我们去任何地方 |
| 341 | I remember Japan used to have their own cell phone system. | 我记得日本曾经有自己的手机系统. |
| 342 | So whenever we went to Japan, I had to bring a very big, different phone to go to Japan. | 所以每当我们去日本, 我不得不带一个非常大,不同的电话去日本。 |
| 343 | But I'm very glad they're in compliance with the rest of the world. | 但我很高兴他们遵守了 其余的世界。 |
| 344 | And with Biden administration, I hope everything will calm down much better. | 和拜登政府, 我希望一切都会平静得多。 |
| 345 | And I was very pleased to hear that Yang Jiechi, one of the ministers from China, | 我很高兴听到 杨洁琪,一位来自中国的部长 |
| 346 | will meet with the U.S. government officials in Alaska. | 将在阿拉斯加会见美国政府官员 |
| 347 | So I think both sides should really maximize our shared interest. | 所以,我认为双方都应该真正最大限度地提高我们的共同利益。 |
| 348 | I don't think fighting brings us anything. | 我不认为战斗会给我们带来什么 |
| 349 | Obviously, we shouldn't deny we have difference. | 显然,我们不应该否认我们有分歧。 |
| 350 | And in certain areas, we will have our traditional competition, | 在某些领域,我们将有 我们的传统竞争, |
| 351 | which is good for consumers. | 这对消费者有好处。 |
| 352 | But in majority issues, we should really focus on our shared interest. | 但是,在多数问题上,我们确实应该把重点放在我们的共同利益上。 |
| 353 | I think you make such a good point, Jane, that because you travel | 我觉得你说的对 Jane 因为你旅行 |
| 354 | doesn't mean that you are not aware of differences. | 不代表你没有意识到差异 |
| 355 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 356 | I mean, you travel in part because you do want to learn about differences. | 我的意思是,你旅行 部分因为你确实想 学习差异。 |
| 357 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 358 | You don't have to agree with everything. | 你不必同意一切事实 |
| 359 | But as you said, there's an inherent commonality among humans. | 但正如你说的,人类之间有着固有的共性. |
| 360 | Right. | 对 |
| 361 | And it's just so important for us to continue to get to know each other. | 对我们来说 继续了解彼此非常重要 |
| 362 | And spend time with each other. | 并相与时. |
| 363 | We don't have to agree on everything. | 我们不必就一切达成一致。 |
| 364 | Right. | 对 |
| 365 | I was watching President Reagan's first visit of Fudan University. | 我在看里根总统第一次访问富丹大学 |
| 366 | And he put it in a very nice way. | 他把它在一个非常好的方式。 |
| 367 | He said we shouldn't ignore or deny our difference. | 他说我们不应该忽视或否认我们的分歧. |
| 368 | Yet we still have so much shared interest we can work on. | 然而,我们仍然有如此多的共同利益,我们可以开展工作。 |
| 369 | That's the beauty of two nations. | 此二国之美. |
| 370 | So I was very touched looking back to history, | 所以我很感动 回想历史, |
| 371 | how much efforts the leaders from both nations have put in, | 两国领导人付出了多少努力, |
| 372 | how much work people from both sides have put in. | 双方都投入了多少工作 |
| 373 | We should really push our two nations together rather than tear them apart. | 我们真的应该共同推动我们两国,而不是将它们撕裂。 |
| 374 | I hadn't anticipated saying this. | 我没想到会这么说 |
| 375 | But sometimes I do have a thought that I miss Ronald Reagan. | 但有时我确实想到我想罗纳德·里根 |
| 376 | I have had that thought over various time periods. | 我在不同时期都有这种想法。 |
| 377 | Let me ask you a business question, Jane. | 让我问你一个商业问题,简。 |
| 378 | So I happened to see an interview of Steve Hafner, who's CEO of Kayak. | 所以我碰巧看到一个采访 史蒂夫·哈夫纳,谁是凯亚克的首席执行官。 |
| 379 | Yes. | 对 |
| 380 | And it was more targeted to the US. | 它更针对美国。 |
| 381 | He made two points. | 他提出了两点。 |
| 382 | And I would like to ask if you see it the same way. | 我想问你是否也这么想 |
| 383 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 384 | One is that more family travel to places like the Caribbean and Florida, very strong. | 一是更多家庭前往加勒比海和佛罗里达等地,非常强壮. |
| 385 | And not so much the case, for example, to go to New York or Chicago. | 比方说,去纽约或芝加哥也没那么简单。 |
| 386 | And then secondly, he said there's a lot of uncertainty about business travel. | 第二,他说,商务旅行有很多不确定性。 |
| 387 | So do you see the same kind of patterns, family destination travel is strong, | 所以,你看到同样的模式, 家庭目的地旅行很强, |
| 388 | questions about business travel? | 关于商务旅行的问题? |
| 389 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 390 | We have seen three major trends. | 我们看到三大趋势。 |
| 391 | First of all, our customers are paying more attention to safety work. | 首先,我们的客户更加关注安全工作。 |
| 392 | So we are asking our partners to join us for the safety network | 所以我们要求我们的合作伙伴加入我们的安全网 |
| 393 | by providing our customers with masks, hand sanitizers, | 给我们的顾客提供面具 手卫生剂 |
| 394 | thermometers to take temperatures. | 温度计能承受温度。 |
| 395 | So that's the first trend. | 这就是第一个趋势。 |
| 396 | Whoever join us for the safety network gets lots of volume. | 加入我们安全网络的人 体积很大 |
| 397 | The second trend is people prefer to travel with much smaller groups, | 第二个趋势是人们更喜欢 与更小的群体旅行, |
| 398 | such as their close family members and close friends, | 他们的亲友, |
| 399 | rather than a big bus with lots of strangers on the bus. | 而不是一辆有很多陌生人的大巴车 |
| 400 | The third one is they prefer to use the airlines or hotels, | 第三,他们更喜欢使用航空公司或酒店, |
| 401 | which offers flexibility in refund, free refund, free cancellation policies. | 它在退款、免费退款、免费注销政策方面提供了灵活性。 |
| 402 | So these are the three trends we have seen. | 这就是我们所看到的三种趋势。 |
| 403 | Now, in terms of destination, because the borders are still quite closed, | 现在,就目的地而言, 因为边界仍然相当封闭, |
| 404 | so we have seen people traveling into Xinjiang, Tibet, the Silk Road, | 因此我们看到人们走进新疆 西藏 丝绸之路 |
| 405 | more remote area, Sanya, more vocational area rather than the condensed area. | 比较偏僻的地区,三亚,职业地区比凝聚地区多. |
| 406 | And also for business traveler, in January and February during the Chinese New Year, | 另外对于商务旅行者来说, 中国元旦的1月和2月, |
| 407 | it was quite slow down. | 慢下来了 |
| 408 | But right after we came back, the business volume have picked up very nicely for us. | 但就在我们回来之后 生意量对我们来说非常不错 |
| 409 | And we haven't totally unleashed the potential for Beijing yet, | 我们还没有完全释放出北京的潜力 |
| 410 | because we had a Congress meeting where traffic is a little bit controlled. | 因为我们有国会会议 交通有点控制。 |
| 411 | But I anticipate after the Congress meeting is over, | 但我预计国会会议结束后 |
| 412 | the traffic to Beijing and from Beijing will even have another nice pickup. | 从北京到北京的交通 还会有另一辆好货车 |
| 413 | So for China, it's very much business back to normal. | 因此,对于中国来说,这在很大程度上是生意恢复正常. |
| 414 | Now, in the long run, I think if it is a one-on-one meeting, | 现在,从长远来看,我想如果这是一对一的会议, |
| 415 | people through this coronavirus are used to use media such as Zoom or WeChat | 人们通过这种冠状病毒被用于使用诸如Zoom或WeChat等介质 |
| 416 | to make a phone call, get issues resolved. | 打个电话 解决问题 |
| 417 | So one-on-one meetings can be replaced by on-call meeting. | 因此一对一会议可以被待命会议取代. |
| 418 | But if it is a conference where I come to New York, | 但是,如果这是一个会议 我来到纽约, |
| 419 | I come to Shanghai to meet a thousand people or a hundred people, | 我是来上海见千人或百人 |
| 420 | that piece probably will still be preserved. | 那块可能还是会保存下来的 |
| 421 | Very, very interesting. | 非常非常有趣,非常有趣。 |
| 422 | I may have more than one student on this call, | 这个电话我可能不止一个学生 |
| 423 | but I did want to say hi to Daniel, | 但我确实想跟丹尼尔问好 |
| 424 | who was a very strong student in the class. | 他是一个非常强大的学生 在课堂上。 |
| 425 | Hi, Daniel, how are you? | 嗨,丹尼尔,你好吗? |
| 426 | Oh, you're on mute. | 哦,你在哑巴上。 |
| 427 | But it's great to see you and it gives me fond memories | 但见到你真好 让我想起了美好的回忆 |
| 428 | of Jane's amazing contributions to the class. | 简对班级的惊人贡献 |
| 429 | So Carol, I think we've covered everything that in terms of the basics, | 所以,卡罗尔,我认为我们已经覆盖了所有 关于基础, |
| 430 | we have time for some dialogue and questions and answers. | 我们有时间进行一些对话以及问答。 |
| 431 | Great, fantastic. | 棒极了,棒极了,这下好了 |
| 432 | That was really fascinating. | 这真的很有趣。 |
| 433 | Thank you to both of you. | 感谢你们两个。 |
| 434 | We've already had some people submitted questions in the chat box. | 我们已经让一些人在聊天箱里提交了问题. |
| 435 | Please feel free to do so. | 请随意 |
| 436 | I'm actually going to start with some questions. | 我实际上要先问几个问题 |
| 437 | Some questions we've actually even collected before the event | 我们实际上已经收集了一些问题 在活动前 |
| 438 | while we were promoting this event. | 在我们宣传这个活动的时候 |
| 439 | So a very broad question for both of you, | 所以,一个非常广泛的问题 你们两个, |
| 440 | which is what do you think will be the picture | 你觉得那将会是那幅画吗? |
| 441 | for the future of U.S. and China high tech industries? | 未来美国和中国高科技产业? |
| 442 | Will they be more collaborative or more competitive? | 它们是更合作还是更具竞争力? |
| 443 | And it's a very general question, | 这是一个非常普遍的问题, |
| 444 | so please feel free to expand on this. | 所以,请随意 扩展这一点。 |
| 445 | I can comment on China's side. | 我可以评论中国方面。 |
| 446 | Yeah, I can comment on China's side. | 是的,我可以评论中国方面。 |
| 447 | From China's side, we very much like to collaborate towards the USA | 从中国方面来看,我们非常愿意向美国合作 |
| 448 | and because people knows how important it is | 因为人们知道它有多重要 |
| 449 | because the technology is winner takes all. | 因为技术是赢家的 |
| 450 | It cannot be segmented or bifurcated. | 它不能被分割或分化。 |
| 451 | If you forcefully segment two pieces, | 如果你强力分割两块 |
| 452 | it's not going to be very healthy for the scientists or technologists. | 这对科学家或技术人员来说不会很健康 |
| 453 | So China is very pro for globalization. | 所以中国非常赞成全球化. |
| 454 | So I think a lot of the rivalry concerns 5G | 所以,我认为很多竞争涉及5G |
| 455 | and I think it's an important insight to stay focused on that. | 我认为保持专注于这一点是一个重要的见解。 |
| 456 | If we weren't going to 5G with this multiplicity of antennae | 要不是我们用这么多天线去5G |
| 457 | all over the world and then the implications | 以及影响 |
| 458 | in terms of Internet of Things, | 互联网上的东西, |
| 459 | then the stakes around 5G would be a lot lower. | 5G左右的赌注会低很多 |
| 460 | But now when we see all of the entry points | 但现在我们看到所有入口 |
| 461 | where the infrastructure has all these entry points, | 基础设施设有所有这些入境点, |
| 462 | it raises the stakes for both China and the US | 这为中国和美国都带来了风险 |
| 463 | and other countries around the world. | 以及世界各地的其他国家。 |
| 464 | And that I think is one of the big drivers | 我觉得是大司机之一 |
| 465 | towards the answer being rivalry. | 答案是竞争。 |
| 466 | However, there are countervailing forces. | 然而,存在着反补贴力量。 |
| 467 | Jane mentioned some that I think are very important, | Jane提到了一些我认为非常重要的事 |
| 468 | but it's also inherent that markets and networks don't like vacuums. | 市场和网络也不喜欢真空 |
| 469 | They don't like splits. | 他们不喜欢分裂 |
| 470 | So whatever extent we have of rivalry, | 所以不管我们有多少竞争对手 |
| 471 | there are going to be opportunities for individuals, | 会有个人的机会, |
| 472 | teams, enterprises to do the work that connects. | 团队,企业要完成连接的工作. |
| 473 | Now in some ways I find this from a business perspective exciting | 在某些方面,我从商业角度觉得这很刺激 |
| 474 | because if everything was just a wide open highway, | 因为如果一切都是宽敞的高速公路 |
| 475 | anybody could come in. | 任何人都可以进来。 |
| 476 | But what I think is the advantage of having Yale Center Beijing | 但我认为有耶鲁中心北京的优势 |
| 477 | and Yale and the network of schools that we have | 以及耶鲁大学和我们拥有的学校网络 |
| 478 | and these kinds of dialogues is that people will figure out | 这种对话是人们会明白的 |
| 479 | how to take advantages of opportunities | 如何利用机会 |
| 480 | from the rivalries that do exist. | 从存在的竞争。 |
| 481 | Let me give you one specific example. | 让我举一个具体的例子。 |
| 482 | I was on a call two days ago with a global consultancy. | 两天前我跟全球顾问打过电话 |
| 483 | They had their own private network for the call. | 他们有自己的私人电话网 |
| 484 | And these things will develop. | 这些东西会发展起来的。 |
| 485 | We're in a world where ideas travel, | 我们正处在一个思想流传的世界, |
| 486 | maybe not information and junk information so much, | 也许没有那么多信息和垃圾信息, |
| 487 | but big ideas will travel. | 但大主意会传来 |
| 488 | So I think that that is a driver towards more collaboration | 所以,我认为这是一个驱动 更多的合作 |
| 489 | and realizing gains from trade. | 从贸易中获得收益。 |
| 490 | I saw a recent question on the role of women | 我最近看到一个关于女性角色的问题 |
| 491 | in entrepreneurship in China. | 中国的创业。 |
| 492 | So as part of that question, | 因此,作为问题的一部分, |
| 493 | according to the women's travel white paper | 根据女子旅行白皮书 |
| 494 | that trip.com group released, | 那个旅行.com小组发布, |
| 495 | more and more women are willing to spend money | 越来越多的女人愿意花钱 |
| 496 | on travel experiences | 旅行经历 |
| 497 | and more than 40% of them choose to stay | 40%以上的人选择留下来 |
| 498 | in four-star hotels or above. | 在四星级以上酒店 |
| 499 | So what do you think are the new opportunities | 那你认为新的机会是什么 |
| 500 | for domestic hotels from budget hotels to B&Bs? | 从预算旅馆到B&B的家用旅馆? |
| 501 | And secondly, what do you think are the new opportunities | 第二,你认为新的机会是什么? |
| 502 | for Chinese women in this current era? | 对于这个时代的中国妇女? |
| 503 | Yeah, I was very glad to see the white paper. | 是的,我很高兴看到白皮书。 |
| 504 | About 40% of the kids who were born in the 90s | 大约40%的孩子是90年代出生的 |
| 505 | choose to stay at four-star and above hotels, | 选择住在四星级以上酒店, |
| 506 | which means they really pay lots of attention | 也就是说他们真的很注意 |
| 507 | to the quality of life. | 提高生活质量。 |
| 508 | And about more than 15% of our travelers are Generation Z, | 我们约15%以上的旅行者是Z世代 |
| 509 | kids who were born after 2000. | 2000年以后出生的孩子。 |
| 510 | And the majority of the females who were born in 80s | 大多数80年代出生的女性 |
| 511 | will buy attraction tickets, | 买彩票 |
| 512 | so they pay more attention to the attractions. | 因此,他们更加关注 吸引。 |
| 513 | So depending on the age where they are born, | 因此,视其出生年龄, |
| 514 | people's center of attention is quite different. | 人们的注意力中心是相当不同的。 |
| 515 | So for hotel business, these are tremendous data | 因此,对于酒店业务, 这些是巨大的数据 |
| 516 | they can capitalize on, | 他们可以利用, |
| 517 | rather than just building a budget hotel. | 而不是仅仅建造一个预算酒店。 |
| 518 | Right now, they like a small boutique hotel more and more. | 现在,他们越来越喜欢一家小酒店 |
| 519 | And our site promotes these beautiful small | 我们的网站宣传这些美丽的小 |
| 520 | and boutique type of hotels. | 和精品酒店类型。 |
| 521 | So for the hotel industry, definitely, | 因此,对于酒店业,绝对, |
| 522 | it's a great opportunity. | 这是一个伟大的机会。 |
| 523 | Now for the female employees, | 现在对于女性雇员来说, |
| 524 | I also encourage them quite a lot, | 我也鼓励他们很多, |
| 525 | not only spend money for their children, for their family, | 不仅为孩子和家人花钱 |
| 526 | but also spend money to bring some happiness for them all. | 还要花钱给他们带来幸福 |
| 527 | Because only when they're happy, | 因为只有他们高兴的时候 |
| 528 | the whole family will be happy. | 全家都会幸福的 |
| 529 | And also, through this survey, | 而且,通过这次调查, |
| 530 | I have seen many females in the remote area | 我在偏远地区见过很多雌性 |
| 531 | are able to work by providing meals or hostel | 能够提供膳食或宿舍来工作; |
| 532 | to our travelers. | 我们的旅行者。 |
| 533 | They are able to make money and support themselves | 他们能赚钱,养活自己 |
| 534 | and their children, support their kids' education, | 和他们的孩子,支持他们的孩子的教育, |
| 535 | which is all tremendous. | 这是所有巨大的。 |
| 536 | I was very excited to see the results. | 我非常兴奋地看到结果。 |
| 537 | Wow, that sounds really wonderful. | 哇,这听起来真的很美妙。 |
| 538 | So Jane, maybe I would just add in a comment | 简,也许我该补充一句 |
| 539 | to what Jane said. | 对简说的。 |
| 540 | And Jane is a stellar leader | 简是个天才领袖 |
| 541 | when it comes to thinking about how to recruit | 在思考如何招募的时候 |
| 542 | and retain and develop women. | 并保留和发展妇女。 |
| 543 | I've seen it firsthand, and it's amazing. | 我亲眼看过,很神奇 |
| 544 | But I think we should be optimistic | 但我觉得我们应该乐观一点 |
| 545 | about technology being, this is an old idea, | 关于科技,这是一个老主意, |
| 546 | it's not new, but we're all concerned now about tech. | 这不是新的, 但我们都担心技术。 |
| 547 | But tech is definitely an enabler | 但科技绝对是助推器 |
| 548 | of people around the world, | 全世界人民, |
| 549 | entrepreneurs and women. | 企业家和妇女。 |
| 550 | I'll tell one story that I recall | 我会说一个故事,我记得 |
| 551 | when I was visiting India. | 我访问印度时 |
| 552 | And I met with a group of women entrepreneurs. | 我会见了一群女企业家。 |
| 553 | And we had a conversation that was being translated | 我们有一个谈话正在翻译 |
| 554 | and everything was okay and it was fascinating. | 一切都很顺利,很迷人 |
| 555 | And then I asked about their access to banking services. | 然后我问了他们获得银行服务的情况。 |
| 556 | And everybody started talking in very excited ways. | 每个人都开始以非常激动的方式说话。 |
| 557 | And they were so mad | 他们太疯狂了 |
| 558 | because the traditional brick and mortar banks | 因为传统的砖和迫击炮库 |
| 559 | had lines for men and for women. | 男人和女人都有台词 |
| 560 | And the lines for women didn't move. | 而妇人之行不动. |
| 561 | And then when it came time for closing, | 然后当它到了关闭的时候, |
| 562 | even if you were in line, | 即使你排队 |
| 563 | they just told you to go away. | 他们只是叫你走开 |
| 564 | Now, the technologies that we're developing now | 现在,我们正在开发的技术 |
| 565 | can't discriminate between men and women. | 不能对男女区别对待 |
| 566 | Exactly, exactly. | 没错,没错。 |
| 567 | Very, very inspiring. | 非常,非常鼓舞人心。 |
| 568 | Empowering, yeah, very inspiring. | 赋予权力,是的,非常鼓舞人心。 |
| 569 | And also I think in ancient time, men go out hung. | 我也觉得在古老的时代 男人都出去玩了 |
| 570 | So the physical strength really is very important. | 所以体力真的非常重要。 |
| 571 | But technology really brings the difference, the gap closer | 但是技术真的把差异拉近了 |
| 572 | so that the intelligence really will make a difference | 这样,情报真的会有所改变 |
| 573 | in the workplace. | 在工作场所。 |
| 574 | And when I look at the university students, | 当我看着大学生, |
| 575 | a lot of female students are getting very good grades. | 很多女生成绩都很好 |
| 576 | So we are starting at the same footing | 我们从同一个起点开始 |
| 577 | after graduate from college. | 大学毕业后 |
| 578 | So I'm very inspired by all these trends. | 所以我非常受这些趋势的启发。 |
| 579 | Wonderful. | 真不错 |
| 580 | That was really interesting. | 这真的很有趣。 |
| 581 | Ted, as a competition policy scholar, | Ted 作为一位竞争政策学者 |
| 582 | we have a question about whether you think | 我们有一个问题 关于你是否认为 |
| 583 | efforts to fight monopolies really work | 打击垄断的努力确实有效 |
| 584 | or do they stifle innovation? | 还是他们扼杀创新? |
| 585 | How do you think these policies will develop, | 你认为这些政策会怎样发展? |
| 586 | at least in the countries that you're more familiar with? | 至少在你比较熟悉的国家? |
| 587 | Yeah, what a good question. | 是啊,一个好问题。 |
| 588 | I'll try not to give you a 40-minute lecture | 我尽量不给你讲40分钟 |
| 589 | because it would be, but I could. | 因为它会, 但我可以。 |
| 590 | But I'm a so-called University of Chicago economist. | 但我是芝加哥大学的经济学家 |
| 591 | That means I'm skeptical about governments | 也就是说我怀疑政府 |
| 592 | being able to do certain things. | 能够做一些事情 |
| 593 | Governments are essential, but I'm skeptical at times. | 政府是不可或缺的 但我有时很怀疑 |
| 594 | And the government brought a case against Microsoft | 政府起诉微软 |
| 595 | a long time ago. | 很久以前的事了 已经很久了 |
| 596 | It had some impact and maybe some positive impact, | 它有一些影响,也许一些积极的影响, |
| 597 | but was it net beneficial? | 但它有净好处吗? |
| 598 | I'm not sure. | 我不太确定 说不定 |
| 599 | And part of the reason is that, in general, | 部分原因是, 总的来说, |
| 600 | we always have competition. | 我们总是有竞争。 |
| 601 | I don't know if everybody remembers. | 我不知道是否每个人都记得。 |
| 602 | Probably not. | 也许不是。 |
| 603 | I vaguely remember. | 我模糊地记得。 |
| 604 | I think there was an app called MySpace, | 我想有个叫MySpace的应用程序 |
| 605 | which was a social media space. | 那是一个社交媒体空间。 |
| 606 | It's gone. | 不见了 |
| 607 | AOL(英语:AOL). | |
| 608 | Everybody was worried about AOL and email. | 大家都担心AOL和电子邮件 |
| 609 | It's gone. | 不见了 |
| 610 | So competition. | 这样的竞争。 |
| 611 | These platforms look very formidable now, | 这些平台看起来非常强大, |
| 612 | but the idea that they can't be replaced in whole or in part, | 但是不能被全部或部分替换的想法, |
| 613 | I think, is wrong. | 我认为,这是错的。 |
| 614 | Look at TikTok grabbing a big user base, | 看看TikTok抓住了一个大用户群 |
| 615 | tending to be younger, obviously a differentiated product. | 越来越年轻,显然是一种有区别的产品。 |
| 616 | So there's always competition. | 所以总有竞争. |
| 617 | That said, I do think there are some opportunities | 这么说吧,我觉得有些机会 |
| 618 | for competition policy to improve competition. | 竞争政策改善竞争。 |
| 619 | It's important to figure out exactly where that can be done, | 重要的是,要找出 确切在哪里可以做到这一点, |
| 620 | where it would be beneficial. | 在那里,这将是有益的。 |
| 621 | But let me try to be a little bit specific. | 但是,让我尽量具体一点。 |
| 622 | And it has to do with vertical integration. | 而与纵向融合有关. |
| 623 | And if you look at, and I'll stick to an example, | 如果你看,我会坚持一个例子, |
| 624 | which is in the video streaming industry. | 在视频流行业。 |
| 625 | And I'll try to present this in a fair way, | 我会试着以公平的方式呈现这个, |
| 626 | and one can debate about it. | 人们可以就此展开辩论。 |
| 627 | 但Netflix公司当然 | |
| 628 | is an extraordinary platform for video streaming. | 是一个非常的视频流平台。 |
| 629 | 我是一个Netflix用户。 | |
| 630 | I think a lot of people in the pandemic have benefited | 很多人都从这场大流行中获益 |
| 631 | 从 Netflix 用户。 | |
| 632 | And they've gone global. | 他们已经走向全球。 |
| 633 | And they've found out a lot of interesting things | 他们发现了很多有趣的事情 |
| 634 | in the process of that. | 在那个过程中。 |
| 635 | But their business model has evolved | 但是他们的商业模式已经发展 |
| 636 | from being a platform where they bring in | 从一个平台 他们带来 |
| 637 | independent supply of content, | 内容的独立供应, |
| 638 | films, TV shows, documentaries, et cetera, | 电影、电视剧、纪录片等 |
| 639 | to now where they are developing their own content. | 现在他们正在开发自己的内容。 |
| 640 | And there's some nomenclature around this. | 这上面有些名字 |
| 641 | 有Netflix原著. | |
| 642 | But not all of those are their own content, | 但并非所有的都是他们自己的内容, |
| 643 | but because some of them are contractually provided | 但因为有些是合同提供的 |
| 644 | 独家致Netflix. | |
| 645 | But they're also integrating, as economists say, | 但正如经济学家所说,他们也在整合 |
| 646 | backward into supply where they develop their own films. | 在他们开发自己的电影的地方, |
| 647 | Well, is that a good thing? | 嗯,这是好事吗? |
| 648 | And I think the debate would be along the following lines. | 我认为辩论将遵循以下思路。 |
| 649 | If you have your own supply, that can reduce transaction costs. | 如果你有自己的供应,那可以降低交易成本。 |
| 650 | However, the antitrust concern is | 然而,反托拉斯问题是: |
| 651 | Netflix has informational advantages over everybody else. | Netflix比其他人都具有信息优势. |
| 652 | They know, for example, if Ted was watching Ozark, | 他们知道,比如, 如果泰德在看Ozark, |
| 653 | very popular show on Netflix, | 在Netflix上非常受欢迎的节目, |
| 654 | and I turned it off in the second season | 我在第二季关机了 |
| 655 | and the second episode because it got too scary. | 和第二集 因为太可怕了。 |
| 656 | Well, they can aggregate all that information | 他们可以汇总所有的信息 |
| 657 | and develop very deep insights | 并形成非常深刻的见解 |
| 658 | as to what will work in that marketplace. | 市场里会有什么效果。 |
| 659 | And those are based on an information differential. | 这些都是基于信息差异。 |
| 660 | Is that unfair? | 这不公平吗? |
| 661 | That's the kind of question that I think | 这正是我想的问题 |
| 662 | is a more productive question. | 这是一个更有成效的问题。 |
| 663 | I think in China, and here I'm a little bit venturing | 我想在中国,我在这里有点冒险 |
| 664 | beyond what maybe I should, | 除了也许我应该, |
| 665 | because I wonder if the recent friction around | 因为我在想 最近发生的摩擦 |
| 666 | A&T is something that I should pay more attention to. | A&T是我应该更加关注的东西. |
| 667 | Many of you know what A&T is. | 许多人都知道A&T是什么. |
| 668 | It's this unbelievably valuable payment system | 是这种无法相信的支付系统 |
| 669 | that has come out of Alibaba. | 从阿里巴巴传出来的 |
| 670 | It's the kind of thing that I think governments | 我认为政府就是这样 |
| 671 | and societies have to decide. | 社会必须作出决定。 |
| 672 | Do they want these things to be integrated | 他们想把这些东西整合起来吗? |
| 673 | or have some degree of common ownership, | 或拥有某种程度的共同所有权, |
| 674 | or do they want them to be independent? | 还是他们要他们独立呢? |
| 675 | Notice I'm not saying that it's wrong | 注意,我没有说这是错的 |
| 676 | to have a few payment systems. | 拥有一些支付系统。 |
| 677 | You can't have 20. | 你不能有20个。 |
| 678 | Now, I don't think you're going to have that | 现在,我不认为你会有 |
| 679 | in the modern world. | 在现代世界。 |
| 680 | So some of the competition policy approaches | 因此,一些竞争政策方针 |
| 681 | I don't think will work. | 我不认为会工作。 |
| 682 | But do you want them, a very important payment system | 但你想要他们, 一个非常重要的支付系统 |
| 683 | to be combined with an entity that does other things? | 和做其他事情的实体合并? |
| 684 | And this issue is definitely coming up in the EU | 这个问题肯定会在欧盟出现 |
| 685 | and it's definitely coming up in the US. | 绝对会在美国出现 |
| 686 | And I just have to, again, say, | 再说一遍 |
| 687 | I'm trying to answer the question without taking sides, | 我试图回答这个问题 不采取偏袒, |
| 688 | because I think this is good debate | 因为我认为这是很好的争论 |
| 689 | and it's going to unfold in what I've called | 它将会在我所说的 |
| 690 | the World Cup of Competition Policy and Enforcement | 竞争政策与执法世界杯 |
| 691 | that's now underway. | 现在已经开始了。 |
| 692 | Ted, we'll have to invite you for another talk | 泰德,我们得请你再谈谈 |
| 693 | on the World Cup of Global Competition Policy. | 全球竞争政策世界杯 |
| 694 | I can invite a lot of Yale experts | 我可以邀请很多耶鲁专家 |
| 695 | and experts around the world. | 和世界各地的专家。 |
| 696 | There are many people who are very familiar | 有很多人很熟悉的 |
| 697 | with these issues. | 与这些问题。 |
| 698 | And for example, we want another contributor | 举例来说,我们需要另一个贡献者 |
| 699 | 班主任是脸书的Eliana Garces | |
| 700 | So maybe we could get a group of interesting people, | 或许我们可以找一群有趣的人 |
| 701 | not just me. | 不仅仅是我 |
| 702 | Yeah, that would be wonderful. | 是啊,那会是美妙的。 |
| 703 | That will be more than 40 minutes, Ted. | 那会超过40分钟 Ted |
| 704 | That will be four hours, I think. | 那大概是四个小时吧 |
| 705 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 706 | Now we have some questions on the application of 5G | 现在,我们有一些问题 关于应用5G |
| 707 | and, for example, IoT for both of you. | 举例来说,你们两个的IOT。 |
| 708 | I'll post this to Jane first. | 我先把这个寄给珍 |
| 709 | What are the disruptive changes or technological advances | 有哪些破坏性变化或技术进步? |
| 710 | that 5G or IoT will bring to your business | 5G或IOT会带给你的生意 |
| 711 | at trip.com group and to tourism? | 来旅游? |
| 712 | I think the speed and accessibility | 我认为速度和无障碍 |
| 713 | will be much improved in terms of customer service. | 客户服务将大为改善。 |
| 714 | Our product offering will be very much on time. | 我们的产品会很准时的 |
| 715 | So hand-holded devices can gear our customers on site | 手持的装置可以让我们的客户在现场 |
| 716 | so they can see exactly what they will be entering into. | 以便他们看见他们所要达到的目标。 |
| 717 | For example, the museum, which has burned the ruins. | 例如,已经烧毁废墟的博物馆. |
| 718 | We can recover what was the original picture before, | 我们可以找回原来的照片 |
| 719 | such as Yuanming and Summer Palace. | 如元明及夏宫. |
| 720 | We can even show them through the IoTs. | 我们甚至可以通过Iots显示他们。 |
| 721 | When they are standing there, they can see the whole picture. | 当他们站在那里, 他们可以看到整个画面。 |
| 722 | That will be a wonderful effect, enhancing their travel experience. | 这将是一个奇妙的效果,加强他们的旅行经验。 |
| 723 | So I'm very excited about the new technology. | 所以我对新技术非常兴奋。 |
| 724 | Very cool. | 慌 |
| 725 | And for Ted, do you think Chinese IoT companies | 泰德,你觉得中国IOT公司 |
| 726 | like Xiaomi's product lines could succeed in the US in the future, | 像小美的产品线 将来在美国会成功, |
| 727 | 尽管SplinterNet和其他力量? | |
| 728 | I think there's a demand for the services and products offered | 我觉得有需求 提供的服务和产品 |
| 729 | by Chinese companies in the US. | 美国的中国公司。 |
| 730 | And some of it is technology-based. | 有些是技术基础的。 |
| 731 | As Jane mentioned, we have, with 5G, | 正如Jane所说,我们用5G |
| 732 | the ability to do augmented reality and virtual reality. | 有能力做更多的现实和虚拟现实。 |
| 733 | And US consumers want that. | 美国消费者希望如此。 |
| 734 | And I think the potential to get those kinds of goods and services | 我认为有潜力获得这些商品和服务 |
| 735 | with new technological enhancements from China | 中国的新技术增强 |
| 736 | for many US consumers will be valuable. | 对许多美国消费者来说是有价值的。 |
| 737 | I have to admit, though, that, or acknowledge, | 但我必须承认 或承认 |
| 738 | that for many consumers, because of the political environment | 对于许多消费者来说,因为政治环境 |
| 739 | in the US now, there's concern about dealing with Chinese companies. | 在美国,人们担心与中国公司打交道。 |
| 740 | I think it just has to be acknowledged. | 我认为这必须得到承认。 |
| 741 | And it won't be everybody, but it won't be no one either | 也不会是任何人 |
| 742 | who fall into that category. | 他们属于这个类别。 |
| 743 | And that particular name is interesting, | 这个名字很有趣 |
| 744 | because for a US citizen, that's clearly not a US company. | 因为对于美国公民来说 这显然不是美国公司 |
| 745 | And I'll just go back to the brilliance of Jane. | 我就回到简的辉煌 |
| 746 | Jane has really thought very systematically | 简真的有系统思考 |
| 747 | about the stages of developing what used to be Ctrip | 关于开发以前Ctrip的阶段 |
| 748 | and taking advantage of the density with the Chinese population, | 并利用中国人口的密度, |
| 749 | Chinese nationals around the world, | 全世界华侨 |
| 750 | and then really becoming global, | 然后真正成为全球, |
| 751 | where people who are not in either of those two categories | 不属于这两类的人 |
| 752 | see TRIP as a global provider of services. | 将TRIP视为全球服务提供者。 |
| 753 | 注意名字从Ctrip改为TRIP. | |
| 754 | So I think there's some work to be done for Chinese companies | 所以我觉得中国公司还有工作要做 |
| 755 | or companies that originated in China | 原产于中国的公司 |
| 756 | to make themselves more appealing. | 让自己更有吸引力 |
| 757 | On the other hand, maybe you don't want to do that | 另一方面,也许你不想这么做 |
| 758 | because you lose some of the local density and audience. | 因为你失去了一些 本地密度和观众。 |
| 759 | Jane 我很着迷 | |
| 760 | I'm more interested in your answer than mine on this. | 我对你的回答更感兴趣 |
| 761 | Yes, we evolved from a very small company. | 是的,我们从一个很小的公司进化而来。 |
| 762 | When I joined the company, we only had 2,000 employees. | 我加入公司时,我们只有2000名员工. |
| 763 | Now we grow into 45,000 employees. | 现在我们成长为45,000名员工。 |
| 764 | So every year we thought about what's the next step, | 我们每年都想着下一步是什么 |
| 765 | how big the targeted market can be. | 目标市场有多大? |
| 766 | So we evolved from just serving customer | 所以,我们从服务顾客演变而来 |
| 767 | by providing hotel product only. | 仅提供旅馆产品。 |
| 768 | And then after two years, we added air tickets. | 两年后,我们增加了机票。 |
| 769 | Another two years, we added the vacation package. | 再过两年 我们又加了度假包 |
| 770 | Another two years, we added corporate travel, so on and so forth. | 再过两年,我们增加了公司旅行,等等。 |
| 771 | So now we can launch about 100 products | 现在我们可以推出大约100种产品 |
| 772 | simultaneously at any given time. | 在任何特定时间同时进行。 |
| 773 | It took lots of concerted efforts globally | 需要全球的一致努力 |
| 774 | to open up our platform from a pure Chinese product owner | 打开我们的平台 从一个纯粹的中国产品所有者 |
| 775 | to a global product owner. | 给全球产品拥有者。 |
| 776 | So we put lots of investment in technology, | 所以我们投入了大量的技术投资, |
| 777 | in service team, and product team. | 在服务团队,和产品团队。 |
| 778 | And our name also evolves, the branding also evolves. | 而我们的名字也在演变,品牌也在演变. |
| 779 | by having Xiechen C-Trip only in China, | 只有中国有谢申C -Trip, |
| 780 | adding China for a younger generation brand. | 加入中国为年轻一代品牌. |
| 781 | And then we also go globe, the global name. | 然后我们也走向全球,全球的名字。 |
| 782 | We want it to be short and easy to remember. | 我们希望它简短易记。 |
| 783 | So trip.com becomes a very good name | 所以Trip.com成为一个非常好的名字 |
| 784 | for everyone around the world to remember. | 让全世界的人都记得 |
| 785 | So everything is being developed very methodically. | 所以,一切正在被非常有条不紊地发展。 |
| 786 | That's phenomenal. | 这是惊人的。 |
| 787 | And a question to all of you, | 问你们一个问题 |
| 788 | since we're still in the pandemic, | 既然我们还在流行中 |
| 789 | how has the pandemic, to Jane, changed your industry? | 这场大流行是如何改变你的行业的? |
| 790 | And to Ted, how has the pandemic changed | 对泰德来说,大流行是如何改变的 |
| 791 | perhaps how you're gonna teach this course | 也许你该怎么教这门课 |
| 792 | or the environment, the universe of companies | 或环境, 公司的宇宙 |
| 793 | and industries that you look at? | 你们所观察的行业, |
| 794 | Hmm. | 是吗? |
| 795 | Yeah, travel is the worst impacted industry | 是啊,旅行是受影响最严重的行业 |
| 796 | by the coronavirus. | 在冕病毒旁边。 |
| 797 | I remember Q1 last year, it was very difficult | 我记得去年的Q1,很困难 |
| 798 | because China was the first country | 因为中国是第一个国家 |
| 799 | which got hit by the coronavirus. | 被冠状病毒击中了 |
| 800 | We executive teams got on the call. | 我们执行小组接到了电话 |
| 801 | Within five minutes, we made a decision | 五分钟内,我们做了个决定 |
| 802 | that we should put our customer's interest first | 我们应该把客户的兴趣放在首位 |
| 803 | by giving back 100% of the amount of the money | 百分之百地还款 |
| 804 | to the customer. | 给顾客 |
| 805 | Although at that time, we do not know | 虽然当时我们不知道 |
| 806 | if the airlines were refund us, | 如果航空公司还给我们的话 |
| 807 | if the hotels were refund us. | 如果酒店还给我们的话 |
| 808 | So we worked very hard at any given time. | 所以我们在任何特定时间都努力工作。 |
| 809 | The refund total can be five billion a day | 退款总额一天可达50亿 |
| 810 | to the customers, but it's the right decision. | 给顾客,但这是正确的决定。 |
| 811 | I told our team, the people come to trip | 我告诉团队,人们来旅行 |
| 812 | because we provide peace in mind | 因为我们为和平而努力 |
| 813 | when this kind of disaster happens, | 当这种灾难发生时, |
| 814 | we have to do everything we can | 我们必须竭尽所能 |
| 815 | to make sure our customers are protected. | 以确保我们的客户受到保护。 |
| 816 | So that's the first step we took. | 这是我们迈出的第一步。 |
| 817 | The second step we took, it was that we need | 我们迈出的第二步,就是我们需要 |
| 818 | to very quickly shrink the cost | 很快缩小成本 |
| 819 | so that our mothership is stabilized. | 这样我们的母舰才能稳定下来 |
| 820 | Otherwise our employees will be out of jobs. | 否则我们的员工就会失业 |
| 821 | So James and I told our HR team, | 詹姆斯和我告诉HR团队 |
| 822 | we will get zero pay for the whole year | 全年不收工资 |
| 823 | and immediately our VP responded by volunteer | 我们的志愿军立即响应 |
| 824 | to our board and they take 50% cut for their salary. | 到我们的董事会, 他们削减50%的工资。 |
| 825 | And our employee volunteered to work four days | 我们的员工自愿工作四天 |
| 826 | and stay at home one day. | 并留在家里的一天。 |
| 827 | So very quickly in Q2, we shrinked our loss | 快速在Q2,我们缩小了损失 |
| 828 | from 1.2 billion to 200 million. | 从12亿到2亿 |
| 829 | And the third quarter, fortunately, | 而第三季度,幸运的是, |
| 830 | our government did a very good job controlling the virus. | 我们的政府做了一个非常好的工作 控制病毒。 |
| 831 | So third quarter when national holiday came, | 第三季度国庆节到来时 |
| 832 | we made 1.6 billion in profit | 我们赚了16亿 |
| 833 | and fourth quarter we are also profitable. | 第四个季度我们也有利润 |
| 834 | So even during such a difficult year | 所以即使在这么艰难的一年里 |
| 835 | for the whole year, we are profitable, | 一整年,我们都是赚钱的 |
| 836 | which I'm very proud of our team. | 我为我们团队感到骄傲 |
| 837 | It shows our discipline, speed for the response | 它显示了我们的纪律,反应的速度 |
| 838 | to the disasters and also customer centric philosophy. | 以及以顾客为中心的哲学 |
| 839 | Now going into this year, January, February, | 现在进入今年,1月,2月, |
| 840 | because of the little outbreak, | 因为小爆发, |
| 841 | a little bit in every provinces, | 每个省份都有一点 |
| 842 | we had a policy not to move too much. | 我们的政策是不要太过分 |
| 843 | But the right after spring comes in March, | 但春天之后的右边是三月 |
| 844 | I have seen tremendous growth in hotel and air tickets. | 我目睹了酒店和机票的巨大增长。 |
| 845 | So I'm very positive if the control is effective this year, | 所以我非常肯定 如果控制 今年有效, |
| 846 | the domestic travel will recover very well. | 国内旅行会恢复得很好 |
| 847 | Now in terms of cross border travel, | 现在在跨境旅行方面 |
| 848 | I think we need to take three steps | 我想我们得分三步走 |
| 849 | and Patty is so influential in the USA. | 帕蒂在美国很有影响力 |
| 850 | Hopefully we can get his help as well. | 希望我们也能得到他的帮助 |
| 851 | The first step I think is for medical experts | 我认为第一步是医学专家 |
| 852 | and the scientists to form some kind of consensus | 和科学家形成某种共识 |
| 853 | whether a person who takes the vaccine | 是否接种疫苗的人 |
| 854 | needs to be quarantined again | 需要再次隔离 |
| 855 | when he or she returned to their home country. | 当他或她回到他们的国家。 |
| 856 | So if the scientists form a consensus, | 所以如果科学家们形成共识 |
| 857 | then different government will form their policy accordingly, | 然后,不同的政府将据此制定政策, |
| 858 | whether they open the borders, | 他们是否打开边界, |
| 859 | whether they need to quarantine people | 他们是否需要隔离人员 |
| 860 | or return to their countries. | 或返回他们的国家。 |
| 861 | And that the sort of step will be for company like trip.com | 台阶是给像Trip.com这样的公司 |
| 862 | to post and aggregate the information | 发布和汇总信息 |
| 863 | from more than 200 countries online | 来自200多个国家的在线 |
| 864 | to support our consumers. | 支持我们的消费者。 |
| 865 | So they have peace in mind | 所以他们心怀和平 |
| 866 | when they get out of their country | 当他们离开祖国时 |
| 867 | or when they return to their home country. | 或当他们回到祖国。 |
| 868 | So these are the steps I foresee | 所以这些都是我预见到的步骤 |
| 869 | for us to get the industry back on track. | 以便我们让产业重新走上正轨 |
| 870 | Well, Jane, I'm excited and not surprised | 珍,我很兴奋,也不惊讶 |
| 871 | to hear your approach and it's so thoughtful | 听到你的方法, 它是如此周到 |
| 872 | and so respectful and I think it's just great. | 如此尊敬,我觉得这很好 |
| 873 | I'm very optimistic about your leadership role | 我对你的领导角色很乐观 |
| 874 | as the travel industry rebounds. | 随着旅行行业的反弹。 |
| 875 | It turns out my daughter works for Marriott | 原来我女儿在万豪公司工作 |
| 876 | and they're thinking through many of the same issues | 他们正在思考很多相同的问题 |
| 877 | and it's fascinating to hear your comments. | 听到你的评论很迷人 |
| 878 | Let me turn to education. | 让我谈谈教育问题。 |
| 879 | It's such an important topic for me | 这对我很重要 |
| 880 | and I've been a business school dean for a long time | 我做商学院院长很久了 |
| 881 | and now I'm a professor. | 现在我是教授了 |
| 882 | And I know the value of education in China | 我知道中国教育的价值 |
| 883 | is extraordinarily high. | 是特别高。 |
| 884 | And I remember when I was working in the 1990s | 我记得我1990年代工作的时候 |
| 885 | with some people at a major Chinese state-owned enterprise | 和一些中国国有企业的人 |
| 886 | and we would get together after the day | 一天之后我们会在一起 |
| 887 | and have a conversation. | 并有一个谈话。 |
| 888 | And I learned that many of the people | 我学会了很多人 |
| 889 | were saving 50% of their salary for education for their kid. | 为孩子的教育节省了50%的工资。 |
| 890 | So, I mean, this goes back deep | 所以,我的意思是,这是回 深 |
| 891 | into Chinese history and values. | 进入中国历史和价值观。 |
| 892 | So education is really important. | 所以教育真的很重要。 |
| 893 | And in terms of how the education sector is changing, | 从教育部门的变化来看 |
| 894 | the pandemic is, of course, | 当然,这种流行病是: |
| 895 | accelerating shifts to new technologies. | 加速向新技术的转变。 |
| 896 | And I won't go into too much detail on that, | 我不会说太多细节 |
| 897 | but here's where I think it gets interesting. | 但这里我觉得很有趣 |
| 898 | I've thought about this a lot. | 我考虑了很多 |
| 899 | Educational institutions are inherently hierarchical. | 教育机构具有固有的等级。 |
| 900 | There's always, people are always concerned | 总是有人关心 |
| 901 | about the ranking. | 关于排名。 |
| 902 | What's the slice of people who are being attracted | 吸引着多少人? |
| 903 | 致香港美元或耶鲁或东京的Hitotsubashi | |
| 904 | or AIM in the Philippines? | 还是菲律宾的AIM? |
| 905 | It's a slice competition. | 切片比赛. |
| 906 | It's not a scale competition. | 这不是一个规模竞争。 |
| 907 | So it's interesting that the technologies | 因此有趣的是,这些技术 |
| 908 | favor moving towards more scale, | 以便他们更加博爱。 |
| 909 | but I would predict you're gonna see less of that | 但我会预测你会看到更少的 |
| 910 | than one might expect. | 比人们可能期望的。 |
| 911 | That's a very, maybe a little bit vague, | 这是一个非常,也许有点模糊, |
| 912 | but I think individuals, especially in China, | 但我认为个人,特别是在中国, |
| 913 | but throughout the world will still value | 但是,全世界仍然重视 |
| 914 | the entities that have small slices | 有小片块的实体 |
| 915 | or near the top of the quality pyramid. | 或接近质量金字塔的顶部。 |
| 916 | And technology will be used, | 技术将被使用, |
| 917 | but it will be used within that framework, | 但它将在这个框架内使用, |
| 918 | not to get scale. | 不是为了得到规模。 |
| 919 | So how does it work for me and for Yale School of Management? | 对我和耶鲁管理学院有什么用? |
| 920 | My successor, Dean Kerwin-Charles and his team | 我的继任者,迪恩・克尔温・查尔斯和他的团队 |
| 921 | have done a terrific job | 干得不错 |
| 922 | dealing with the safety issue, using technology, | 利用技术处理安全问题, |
| 923 | and it's typically called a hybrid model, | 这通常叫做混合模型, |
| 924 | but there are many different hybrid models, | 但有很多不同的混合型号, |
| 925 | but some combination of in-person class experience | 但有些结合 面对面的课堂经验 |
| 926 | with access using technology, | 利用技术获取, |
| 927 | but the size of the program doesn't change. | 但程序大小不变. |
| 928 | The quality of the people doesn't change. | 人民素质不变. |
| 929 | The value of the Yale School of Management degree | 耶鲁管理学院学位的价值 |
| 930 | doesn't change. | 没有改变。 |
| 931 | Hopefully it'll continue to go up, | 希望它能继续上升 |
| 932 | but that's how I see this. | 但我是这样看待的 |
| 933 | And in terms of my own personal teaching, | 就我个人的教导来说 |
| 934 | we had 100% Zoom this past fall. | 在过去的秋天,我们得到了100%的放大。 |
| 935 | So when Jane joined the class, | 所以当简加入这个班的时候 |
| 936 | Daniel and others were there, everybody was on Zoom. | 丹尼尔和其他人在场 每个人都在调查Zoom |
| 937 | And in some ways, I think I've gotten to be pretty good at it | 在某些方面,我觉得我 已经得到了相当好 |
| 938 | and it's convenient. | 则方便. |
| 939 | However, I do look forward to in September | 然而,我期待着在9月 |
| 940 | when the class resumes, being in the classroom. | 复课时,在课堂上。 |
| 941 | And that's the plan, | 这就是计划 |
| 942 | but what's interesting for this class, | 但对于这门课来说有什么有趣的 |
| 943 | if we have, for example, 40 students from around Yale | 举例来说,如果有40名学生来自耶鲁 |
| 944 | coming to class in person, | 亲自来上课, |
| 945 | I'm gonna reserve 20 spots | 我要保留20个点 |
| 946 | for students from around the global network. | 面向来自全球网络的学生。 |
| 947 | So I look forward to a world that has | 所以我期待着一个拥有 |
| 948 | maybe a little more complication for me, | 也许更复杂一点对我来说, |
| 949 | but I think it's gonna be terrific | 但我认为这将是伟大的 |
| 950 | to have a combination of Yale students. | 拥有耶鲁大学学生的组合。 |
| 951 | And by the way, if a Yale student is concerned about, | 顺便说一句,如果一个耶鲁学生关心, |
| 952 | this goes back to Jane's point, | 这又回到简的观点 |
| 953 | if a Yale student is concerned about his or her health | 如果耶鲁大学的学生担心自己的健康 |
| 954 | and wants to choose to Zoom in, that's fine. | 并想选择放大, 这很好。 |
| 955 | But then we'll use technology | 但是我们再用技术 |
| 956 | to make this learning system global. | 使这一学习系统成为全球性的。 |
| 957 | So I'm actually pretty optimistic, | 所以我其实很乐观 |
| 958 | but I do think education's been around a long time. | 但我觉得教育已经很久了 |
| 959 | I don't see that slice model changing. | 我不觉得那块模型会变 |
| 960 | I'll be clear about that prediction. | 我会明白这个预测。 |
| 961 | I don't think, I think when it comes to degree programs, | 我不认为,我想当它涉及到学位课程, |
| 962 | it's just like a high-end brand. | 这就像一个高端品牌。 |
| 963 | You don't want all of those, | 你不想要所有这些, |
| 964 | you don't wanna walk down the street | 你不会想走在街上 |
| 965 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}还花了1400美元买一个手提包 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}看看他们中的10个人 | |
| 966 | It's gotta be exclusive. | 得专一. |
| 967 | And what a great note to draw this to an end | 和多么伟大的音符 画这个结束 |
| 968 | with optimism about the future and going forward. | 对未来和未来的乐观 |
| 969 | This is precisely the kind of dialogues and conversations | 这正是那种对话和对话 |
| 970 | that the center has been built for. | 中心是用来建造的 |
| 971 | And I'm just delighted to be able to, | 我很高兴能够 |
| 972 | despite our distances and time zones, | 尽管我们的距离和时区, |
| 973 | connect with Jane and Ted for such a wonderful conversation | 联系简和泰德 这样美妙的谈话 |
| 974 | and with both of them being leaders in different spheres, | 他们俩是各领域的领导人, |
| 975 | giving us such a rich perspective. | 给我们一个丰富的视角。 |
| 976 | So as we draw to a close, | 当我们接近尾声时, |
| 977 | what we do at the end of all of these online events | 在所有这些网络事件结束时我们所做的一切 |
| 978 | is that we ask all of the participants, if you can, | 我们问所有参与者,如果你可以, |
| 979 | to turn on your cameras. | 打开你的摄像机。 |
| 980 | So we can do a very nice group photo | 这样我们就可以拍张非常好的照片 |
| 981 | for our memories and the memories | 我们的记忆和记忆 |
| 982 | of our distinguished speakers. | 我们尊敬的发言者。 |
| 983 | So I'm gonna count down to five | 我数到五 |
| 984 | and then we'll start snapping. | 然后我们开始抓狂。 |
| 985 | Five, four, three, two, one. | 五,四,三,两,一。 |
| 986 | And we'll do lots of snaps. | 我们会做很多动作。 |
| 987 | And as part of the tradition, | 作为传统的一部分 |
| 988 | what we'll do is also unmute everyone, | 我们要做的也是不责怪所有人 |
| 989 | or you can unmute yourselves, | 或者你们能解脱, |
| 990 | to give a round of applause for our wonderful | 掌声欢呼 我们的美妙 |
| 991 | and distinguished speakers. | 和尊贵的发言者。 |
| 992 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 993 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
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