耶鲁法学教授张泰苏新书开讲：清代的国家能力为何格外薄弱？

发布于 2021-06-23 · 时长 1:20:16

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:04	Good morning to those of you guys joining us from the US	早上好,你们这些家伙从美国加入我们
0:08	and good evening to those of you guys	祝你们晚安
0:09	joining us from China.	从中国加入我们。
0:11	And I know that there are many of you guys joining us	我知道有很多人加入我们
0:13	from elsewhere around the world.	从世界各地。
0:15	Welcome to everybody.	欢迎大家光临
0:17	My name is Devin Lau	我叫刘德文
0:17	and I'm the Assistant Director for Yale Center Beijing.	我是耶鲁北京中心助理主任
0:21	Thank you for joining us today	谢谢你今天能来
0:23	for what is proving to be quite the popular topic.	被证明是热门话题

展开字幕全文（1524 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Good morning to those of you guys joining us from the US	早上好,你们这些家伙从美国加入我们
2	and good evening to those of you guys	祝你们晚安
3	joining us from China.	从中国加入我们。
4	And I know that there are many of you guys joining us	我知道有很多人加入我们
5	from elsewhere around the world.	从世界各地。
6	Welcome to everybody.	欢迎大家光临
7	My name is Devin Lau	我叫刘德文
8	and I'm the Assistant Director for Yale Center Beijing.	我是耶鲁北京中心助理主任
9	Thank you for joining us today	谢谢你今天能来
10	for what is proving to be quite the popular topic.	被证明是热门话题
11	Quick word of introduction	简短的介绍词
12	because I know that we have so many people on today	因为我知道我们今天有这么多人
13	that maybe not everybody is familiar	也许不是每个人都熟悉
14	with Yale Center Beijing.	与耶鲁中心北京.
15	Yale Center Beijing is the first	耶鲁中心北京是第一个
16	and only university-wide center for Yale University	并且只有耶鲁大学的全大学中心
17	outside of New Haven, of course, established in 2014.	当然,纽黑文之外,成立于2014年.
18	And our mission is to continue to highlight	我们的任务是继续强调
19	and promote all the work that goes on at Yale,	并宣传所有在耶鲁进行的工作,
20	especially for our audience in China.	尤其对我们在中国的观众来说
21	But ever since the pandemic, of course,	但自从流行以来,当然,
22	we've expanded our reach	我们扩大了我们的范围
23	to include quite the global audience.	包括全球观众
24	And in the past year and a half or so,	在过去的一年半左右,
25	we've been lucky to have many of these Zoom talks	我们很幸运能有这么多的演讲
26	spanning all sectors of Yale,	横跨耶鲁的所有部门,
27	including today's talk, which is a talk on history,	包括今天的谈话, 这是一个关于历史的谈话,
28	but also we have, of course,	当然我们也有
29	Professor John Taisu in the law school,	约翰教授法学院的太素
30	but we've also had many activities	但我们也有很多活动
31	spanning the sciences and economics and the arts,	科学、经济学和艺术,
32	so on and so forth.	诸如此类.
33	And so we're very lucky today	所以我们今天很幸运
34	to have quite the interesting topic.	有相当有趣的话题。
35	So Professor Taisu Zhang is a professor of law	张太素教授是法学教授
36	at Yale Law School, as well as a professor of history.	在耶鲁法学院以及历史教授
37	He works on comparative legal and economic history,	他致力于比较法律和经济史,
38	private law theory, and contemporary Chinese law and politics.	私法理论,以及当代中国法律与政治.
39	He holds three degrees from Yale,	他持有三度耶鲁,
40	BA in history and mathematics,	历史和数学学士,
41	a JD as well as a PhD in history.	a 法学博士和历史博士。
42	And he's also taught at the Duke University School of Law,	他还在杜克大学法学院任教
43	the University of Hong Kong, Brown University,	香港大学布朗大学
44	and the Tsinghua University School of Law.	和清华大学法学院.
45	Today's talk is actually part of a planned trilogy	今天的谈话其实是计划三部曲的一部分
46	of books that he's been working on,	他一直在写的书,
47	on the institutional and cultural origins	体制和文化渊源
48	of early modern economic divergence.	早期现代经济差异。
49	His first book of this trilogy,	他这三部曲的第一本书,
50	The Laws and Economics of Confucianism,	儒学的法律与经济学,
51	Kinship and Property in Pre-Industrial China and England,	工业前中国和英国的金矿和财产,
52	was published by Cambridge University Press	由剑桥大学出版社出版
53	and received in 2018 the President's Award	并在2018年获得总统奖
54	from the Social Science History Association,	来自社会科学历史协会,
55	as well as the Gadda Smith Book Prize	以及加达·史密斯书奖
56	from the McMillan Center for International	麦克米兰国际中心
57	and Area Studies.	和地区研究。
58	So this is a quite long ranging	所以这是很长的距离
59	and wide ranging topic that he's looking into.	他正在研究的话题很广
60	And today's talk is looking into	今天的谈话正在调查
61	a more specific aspect of that.	更具体的方面。
62	And so without further ado,	所以不用再多说了
63	I will turn it over to Professor Taisu Zhang.	我把它交给张大秀教授
64	All right, thank you, Devin.	好的谢谢德文
65	And it's nice to be doing something with the YCB	和YCB做点什么真好
66	for I think the first time, actually.	因为我觉得第一次,实际上。
67	Back in the day when I was first admitted to Yale	我第一次考耶鲁大学那天
68	as an undergrad, there was this thing in Beijing	作为本科生,北京有这种东西
69	called the Yale Beijing Club,	被称为耶鲁北京俱乐部,
70	which was like this less formal bunch of alumni	就像这群不太正式的校友
71	who did things occasionally together.	他们偶尔会一起做事
72	And we had these like lunches with speakers,	我们用喇叭吃午饭
73	sometimes from Yale.	有时来自耶鲁.
74	Very often, like usually it was at the Swiss Hotel,	经常就像通常在瑞士酒店一样
75	I think in like right outside of Dong Si Shi Tiao	我想就在东思孝外面
76	in Chaoyang.	在朝阳.
77	Now, of course, YCB is a massive upgrade from that.	当然,YCB是一个巨大的升级。
78	And it's nice to see Yale having more formal	很高兴看到耶鲁更正式
79	and sophisticated program in Beijing.	北京的精密计划
80	Unfortunately, during the pandemic,	不幸的是,在流行期间,
81	I can't go back there, but I would love to see you guys	我不能回去,但我很想见你们
82	when I manage to make it back to Beijing sometime.	当我设法回到北京的时候
83	And thank you to the audience for joining me this morning.	感谢观众今早的光临
84	This talk is not going to be like,	这次谈话不会是...
85	I was under the impression that the main audience	我当时的印象是主要观众
86	for YCB talks was going to be alumni.	对于YCB的会谈将是校友。
87	Apparently that was a mistaken impression is for this one.	这显然是一个错误的印象对于这个。
88	But nonetheless, this talk is geared not necessarily	不过,这段话不一定适合
89	towards an academic audience.	面向学术观众。
90	It's kind of like a simplified,	这有点像一个简化,
91	hopefully made more interesting summary of some ideas.	希望对一些想法作出更有趣的总结。
92	That I've developed in book two of the trilogy	我在三部曲的第二本书中有所发展
93	that Devin just mentioned, which is now complete	德文刚才提到的, 现在已经完成了
94	and in the final process at Cambridge.	在剑桥的最后阶段
95	And hopefully it'll come out perhaps late next year,	希望明年晚些时候能出来
96	I think, given their speed.	我认为,考虑到他们的速度。
97	But the book is complete and I'm happy to talk	但书是完整的,我很高兴谈
98	about some of the ideas.	关于一些想法。
99	It has a lot of wide range of comparative elements,	它有很多广泛的比较因素,
100	both with other Chinese dynasties	和中国其他王朝一样
101	and also with other early modern empires.	还有其他早期的现代帝国
102	So although technically this is a book and a talk	所以,虽然从技术上讲,这是一本书和一篇谈话
103	on a certain facet of Qing dynasty history,	在清朝历史的某个方面,
104	I do believe it has implications well beyond that.	我相信它的影响远不止于此。
105	So let me start the talk	让我开始说
106	and let's begin by sharing my screen.	让我们开始分享我的屏幕。
107	All right, so the talk is called,	好吧,所以谈话叫做,
108	why was the late imperial Chinese state so weak?	为什么后来的帝国中国国家如此软弱?
109	By late imperial, basically I mean Qing.	说到晚期的帝国主义,基本上是指清.
110	And whoops, yeah.	和呜咽,是的。
111	So let's just talk about some of the basic motivation	我们来谈谈一些基本动机
112	for this project very quickly.	很快完成这个项目。
113	So despite being known as a despotic regime,	所以尽管被称作专制政权,
114	I'm sure some of you guys are familiar	我相信你们中有些人很熟悉
115	with the term oriental despotism.	与东方专制一词。
116	That supposedly exercised enormous power over its subject.	这据称对其主题行使了巨大的权力。
117	The late imperial Chinese state was in fact,	后期的中国帝国其实是
118	especially after something like 1700, a pretty weak one	特别是在1700年之后,一个很弱的
119	in terms of both administrative courses and fiscal capacity.	在行政课程和财政能力方面。
120	If you track the broader trends in Chinese state capacity,	如果你跟踪中国的国力发展趋势
121	there was, so if you start out during the Tang, right?	有,所以如果你开始在唐人时期,对不对?
122	The Tang has a certain measure of state capacity.	唐人有一定的国力.
123	It has a large amount of military capacity,	它拥有大量的军事能力,
124	but governance capacity and administrative capacity	但治理能力和行政能力
125	was not terribly high.	也不算高,因为...
126	Then it went up quite sharply during the Song,	之后,在宋国时期急剧上升
127	which really was the peak of Chinese state capacity	这真的是中国国力的顶峰
128	prior to 1912.	在1912年之前。
129	And then from the Song onwards,	从宋以来
130	it was kind of downhill all the way, right?	一直走下坡,对吧?
131	So you go to the Yuan, the Ming and to the Qing	所以你们去元,明,清
132	and state capacity, at least by measures of coercive power	和国家能力,至少采取强制措施
133	and formal governmental power,	和正式的政府权力,
134	it's kind of going down all the time.	总是在下降
135	Now, the most direct measure of this,	最直接的衡量标准是
136	perhaps like most intuitive way of measuring this,	也许就像最直观的测量方法,
137	which is not the only possible way.	这不是唯一的可能办法。
138	And it's a slightly controversial topic	这是一个有点有争议的话题
139	that we can talk about later on in the Q&A.	稍后我们可以在"QQA"里谈
140	But the most direct measure is probably fiscal capacity.	但最直接的措施可能是财政能力。
141	The state's ability to extract taxes from the population.	州能从民中取税.
142	Now, this declined quite severely	现在,这个下降相当严重
143	over the course of the second millennium.	在第二个千年期间。
144	Peaks in the, across Chinese, across pre-modern,	跨越中国,跨越现代前期
145	pre-19, let's just say pre-1927 in Chinese history,	19世纪前,我们只说1927年前的中国历史,
146	basically peaks in the Song reaching at the time	基本上宋人到达时的高峰
147	over probably over 10% of estimated GDP.	估计超过国内生产总值的10%
148	This was at the time,	这是当时,
149	one of the highest levels in the world.	是世界上最高的级别之一
150	Then it comes back down to around 5% in the Ming,	然后,它回到5%左右在明,
151	which was more or less where it was in the Tang as well.	或多或少地在唐人的地方
152	You can kind of think of this as like the common plateau	你可以把这当成普通高原
153	for Chinese universities.	中国的大学。
154	The Song was abnormally high.	宋时异常高.
155	Beyond the Ming, the Qing was abnormally low,	明人之外,清人异常低落,
156	but by the mid Qing, by the mid to late Qing,	但至清中,至清中后期,
157	government taxation was basically less than 1% of GDP,	政府税收基本不到国内生产总值的1%,
158	at least formal governmental taxation.	至少正式的政府税收。
159	Now, there are some parts of this narrative	现在,这个故事有些部分
160	that should be flagged right away, right?	应该马上被标记下来,对吧?
161	The Song, saying that it was all the way down	宋人说,这是一路下去
162	from the Song, a little bit,	从宋人,一点点,
163	it kind of masks the fact that the Song is really unique.	它掩盖了一个事实, 歌是真正独特的。
164	And in pure Chinese history, it was,	在纯粹的中国历史中,
165	not only was it the high point for state fiscal	不仅是国家财政的高点
166	and administrative capacity,	行政能力,
167	the Song also has some pretty unique features.	宋人也有一些相当独特的特征.
168	Compared to the Tang, the Ming and the Qing,	与唐人,明人,清人相比,
169	and of course the Yuan,	当然还有元
170	it's the only major dynasty that wasn't really	这是唯一一个没有真正
171	kind of like a central East Asian empire.	就像一个中亚帝国
172	It had clear boundaries.	它有明确的界限。
173	It was relatively constrained in geographical reach.	其地理范围相对有限。
174	And because it was militarily weaker,	因为它在军事上较弱
175	then it's Northern and eventually the Northwestern neighbors,	然后是北方最终是西北邻居
176	the Liao and even the Xia.	辽乃至夏.
177	The Song was, it was kind of boxed in,	歌是,它是一种拳击英寸
178	in terms of boundaries.	在边界方面。
179	Whereas in comparison, right,	相比之下,是的,
180	the Tang, the Yuan, the Ming, the Qing,	唐人元人明人清人
181	these are all kind of the expansionist,	他们都是扩张主义者
182	somewhat central Asian empires that have boundaries	有边界的中亚帝国
183	that are kind of constantly trying to expand.	这是一种不断尝试扩张。
184	The Qing especially is the subject	特别是清人
185	of this massive academic literature that you guys may know,	你们可能知道的大量学术文献
186	new Qing history, stuff which tells the story	新清史,讲故事的东西
187	of how the Qing goes into Central Asia,	清人如何进入中亚,
188	expands into what is now Xinjiang and Tibet,	扩张到现在的新疆和西藏
189	and so on and so forth.	诸如来等.
190	Now, the fact the Song was a centralized state	现在,事实上宋国是一个中央集权的国家
191	with clear boundaries may well be an explanation	有明确的界限很可能是一个解释
192	for why Song fiscal capacity was unusually strong	为什么宋财政能力异常强大
193	because it's much easier to have strong fiscal capacity	因为拥有强大的财政能力要容易得多
194	in these kind of like more compact,	在这种像更紧凑,
195	clearly bounded states.	明确界限的国家。
196	So in some ways, like the Song,	因此,在某些方面,如宋人,
197	you can kind of think of the Song	你可以想到歌声
198	as this abnormal high points,	作为这个异常的高点,
199	whereas the Tang and Ming were kind of like norm	唐人和明人好像很平常一样
200	for Chinese dynastic state capacity.	用于中国的无动力状态能力。
201	But even within that comparison set,	但是即使在这个对比中
202	the Qing is unusually weak.	清人异常虚弱
203	All right, and this begins demand for their explanation.	好吧,这开始要求他们解释。
204	Now, the Qing also breaks a relatively common pattern,	现在,清人也打破了一个比较常见的模式,
205	actually a largely universal pattern	实际上是一种普遍模式
206	of amongst major Chinese dynasties.	在中国各主要王朝中
207	Every other major Chinese dynasty	中国其他各大王朝
208	more or less has the following fiscal history.	大致有以下财政历史.
209	You start off relatively low levels	你从较低的水平开始
210	at the start of the dynasty	在王朝初期
211	because you just took over from the previous dynasty	因为你刚刚接替了前王朝
212	after a period of likely significant chaos.	在一段时期的混乱之后
213	You wanna show your benevolence, so you lower taxes.	你想表现你的仁慈, 所以你降低税收。
214	At some point, the population recovers,	在某个时候, 人口恢复,
215	the economy recovers, and you discover	经济恢复,你发现
216	that your fiscal income is not enough	你的财政收入还不够
217	to meet the administrative demands of expanding dynasty.	以满足扩大王朝的行政需求.
218	So what tends to happen is around mid-dynasty,	通常发生在王朝中期
219	there is a set of fiscal reforms	有一套财政改革
220	that tries to expand the tax base	试图扩大税收基础
221	and make it simpler and easier to collect taxes.	并让税收更加简单和容易。
222	And there is fiscal expansion,	还有财政扩张,
223	at least in absolute terms,	至少在绝对值上
224	not necessarily as a percentage of GDP,	不一定占国内生产总值的百分比,
225	but the state does make an effort at least	但国家至少要努力
226	to keep the overall volume of taxation	保持税收总量
227	somewhat on par with economic recovery and expansion.	与经济复苏和扩大相当。
228	The Qing is a major break,	清人是个大突破
229	perhaps the only significant break to this pattern	或许是这种模式的唯一重大突破
230	in Chinese history.	在中国历史上。
231	And of course, not only was the Qing,	当然,不仅是清,
232	so the core characteristic of the Qing,	所以清人的核心特征
233	as we're gonna talk about in a second,	我们马上就要谈了
234	is that basically the total,	基本上,这是总数,
235	the absolute volume of its fiscal income stagnates	其财政收入的绝对数额停滞不前;
236	from essentially 1720 onwards,	从1720年起,
237	all the way towards the end of the dynasty,	一直到王朝末期,
238	and especially one core component,	特别是一个核心组成部分,
239	the agricultural tax, completely stagnates.	农业税,完全停滞。
240	This had not been the case in any other previous dynasty.	在以前的任何其他王朝,情况并非如此。
241	In every other major previous dynasty,	在以前的每一大王朝中
242	the agricultural tax,	农业税,
243	which is the core component of the tax system,	这是税收制度的核心组成部分,
244	always expands somewhat after the dynasty,	总是在王朝之后有所扩张
245	and in most cases, very significantly so.	而且在多数情况下,这一点非常重要。
246	Of course, the Qing is also an extreme outlier	当然,清人也是极外人
247	in the early modern world.	在早期现代世界。
248	So we've talked about these vertical comparisons	所以我们讨论过这些纵向比较
249	with previous Chinese dynasties.	与之前的中国王朝.
250	If you look at horizontal comparisons	如果你看水平比较
251	with other early modern states	与其他早期现代国家
252	compared to the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire,	与奥斯曼帝国,俄罗斯帝国相比,
253	it was even compared with these other	它甚至被比作这些其他的
254	land-based Asian empires,	陆基亚洲帝国,
255	they usually taxed at around 4% to 5% of GDP.	他们通常按国内生产总值的4%至5%征税。
256	So more or less on par with what the Ming and Tang did,	和明和唐人一样
257	the Qing was extremely low.	清朝当时地位极低.
258	Compared with European states, with the Brits,	比起欧洲国家和英国人
259	with the French, with the Germans,	和法国人,和德国人,
260	those were usually 10% or higher.	通常为10%或以上。
261	The English were much higher at something like 15%	英语比15%高得多
262	for most of its early modern history.	因为它的早期现代历史。
263	And compared with, say, Japan,	与日本相比
264	even prior to the major restoration, Japan,	甚至在大修复之前日本
265	the Daimyo, the shogunates combined,	戴米约人,
266	they were taxing something like 20% or more	他们收了20%或更多税
267	of Japanese GDP, bringing it into official government coffers.	进入官方政府库
268	So whether you compare the Qing horizontally or vertically,	所以,无论你比较清横向或纵向,
269	it's abnormally weak in terms of fiscal capacity.	财政能力异常薄弱.
270	And this is the thing that this entire book	这本书就是这么写的
271	is designed to explain.	是用来解释的
272	Now, the core problem with sync taxation	现在同步征税的核心问题
273	was its inability, or you could perhaps say	是因为它没有能力或者你可以说
274	its unwillingness to increase agricultural taxes.	不愿意增加农业税。
275	So as we'll talk about in a bit more detail,	所以,我们再详细谈谈,
276	the total volume of the agricultural tax	农业税总额
277	basically stagnates after 1680	基本上在1680年后就停滞了
278	and really extremely, so after 1720.	所以在1720年后
279	And again, this is quite unique.	同样,这是相当独特的。
280	Now, of course, during the same period of time,	当然,在同一期间,
281	this was not like, you could say, okay,	这不像,你可以说,好吧,
282	tax the total volume of agricultural taxes,	征收农业税总额,
283	does that mean that the overall agri-growing economy	这是否意味着整个农业增长经济
284	has also stagnated?	也停滞不前吗?
285	Of course not, right?	当然不是,对吧?
286	So during the same period of time from 1680	所以在1680年的同一时期
287	to let's say 1900, the total volume	比方说1900年的总量
288	of agricultural production in the Qing triples,	清三代的农业生产,
289	but perhaps more than triples.	但也许不止三倍。
290	But the amount of tax that the state extracts	但国家提取的税额
291	from this tripling sector remains completely the same,	从这个三连串的区段完全没有变化
292	almost completely the same.	几乎完全一样。
293	So essentially like per capita tax rates plummet on plummet,	就像人均税率暴跌一样
294	just completely shrink to the point	只是完全缩小到重点
295	of virtual non-existence by the 19th century.	到19世纪时虚拟不存在
296	And of course, even within the same fiscal system,	当然,即使在同一财政体制内,
297	the agricultural tax was treated differently	农业税待遇不同
298	than non-agricultural taxes, right?	比非农业税,对不对?
299	So commercial taxes, taxes on industry,	所以商业税,工业税,
300	salt taxes, and so on and so forth.	盐税等.
301	Those taxes actually did not stagnate, right?	那些税实际上并没有停滞,对不对?
302	They largely kept up with the pace of economic growth	它们基本跟上了经济增长的步伐
303	from the 1650s all the way to the 1840s.	从1650年代一直到1840年代.
304	And after 1850, after the Taiping rebellion	1850年后,太平军叛乱
305	throws the Qing into this massive fiscal crisis.	将清人推入这场大规模财政危机.
306	All of these non-agricultural taxes	所有这些非农业税
307	increased very rapidly in response	反应迅速增加
308	to this massive escalation in fiscal demand.	财政需求大幅攀升。
309	But of course, the sharp contrast is the agricultural tax,	当然,尖锐的对比是农业税
310	the traditional linchpin of the system	传统系统的关键
311	continues to stagnate.	继续停滞不前。
312	So by the end of the Qing,	故至清末时.
313	the agricultural tax is not even the most important tax	农业税甚至不是最重要的税
314	in the fiscal structure.	在财政结构中。
315	That honor goes to the commercial taxes,	这个荣誉是商业税
316	which is quite shocking	这太令人震惊了
317	because the Qing cannot rely so heavily,	因为清人不能如此依赖
318	no Chinese dynasty relied so heavily on commercial taxation	没有中国王朝如此依赖商业税
319	since pretty much the peak of the Song.	因为几乎是宋末时期
320	So if you want to talk about this	所以,如果你想谈这个
321	in somewhat academic jargon,	以某种学术术语,
322	to a large extent, Qing non-agricultural taxation	在很大程度上,清非农业税
323	was more or less rational.	或多或少是理性的。
324	It responded to fluctuations in demand.	它应对了需求的波动。
325	It made an effort to keep up	它努力跟上
326	with economic and demographic expansion.	伴随着经济和人口的增长。
327	In contrast, the agricultural tax	相反,农业税
328	was essentially completely unresponsive	基本上完全没有反应
329	to any of these demand side or supply side changes.	这些需求方或供应方的变化。
330	And in the end, if you're talking about	最后,如果你在说
331	one primary culprit for Qing fiscal weakness,	清财政不景气的罪魁祸首
332	you have to talk about this extremely unusual stagnation	你得谈谈这种异常的停滞
333	of the agricultural tax.	农业税。
334	Now, does this mean like one simple explanation	现在,这是否意味着一个简单的解释
335	that immediately comes to mind for this entire narrative	立即想到这个故事
336	is perhaps this is because non-agricultural tax hikes,	也许是因为非农业税的上涨,
337	especially after 1850,	特别是1850年后
338	they suffice to meet the fiscal demands of the state.	它们足以满足国家的财政需求。
339	Of course, if you look at the history carefully,	当然如果你仔细看历史
340	this was clearly not the case.	情况显然并非如此。
341	And the dynasty was consistently unable	而王朝始终无法
342	to meet its spending needs,	满足其开支需要,
343	whether militarily or economically or otherwise,	不论军事或经济或其他方面,
344	just on the basis of raising non-agricultural taxes.	只是为了提高非农业税
345	Now, of course, this should not be surprising whatsoever,	现在,当然,这不应该是令人惊讶的,
346	given that throughout the entire Qing,	鉴于整个清朝
347	some 70 to 80% of the economy was agricultural.	约70-80%的经济是农业。
348	So if you're not raising taxes	所以,如果你不提高税收
349	on 70 to 80% of your economy,	你70%到80%的经济,
350	it doesn't really matter too much.	这并不重要。
351	What matters is you're never going to be able	重要的是你永远无法做到
352	to basically get enough taxes just by raising taxes,	基本上通过提高税收来获得足够的税收,
353	out of the remaining 20 to 25%.	其余的20%至25%。
354	So there was the man side pressure	所以有男人的侧压
355	to raise agricultural taxes.	提高农业税。
356	They were just consistently resistant.	他们只是坚持不懈地抵抗。
357	Now, what explains all this?	现在,什么解释这一切?
358	That's the central question of this entire talk.	这是整个谈话的中心问题。
359	And so any good explanation, as we saw on the setup,	任何很好的解释正如我们在设定上看到的
360	has to perform at least three basic questions.	至少要处理三个基本问题
361	First, it has to explain the refusal	首先,必须解释拒绝的原因
362	to raise agricultural taxes.	提高农业税。
363	Second, it has to explain the differential treatment	第二,必须解释差别待遇
364	of agriculture versus non-agricultural taxes.	农业税和非农业税。
365	So why do you treat agriculture versus commerce differently?	那你为什么对农业对商业有不同的处理?
366	Third, it has to manage to explain the difference	第三,它必须设法解释区别
367	at least between the Qing and previous Chinese dynasties,	至少是在清朝和之前的中国王朝之间
368	because the Qing was, again, a major outlier.	因为清军再次成为主要外敌
369	So let me just give at this point a very short history	所以,让我在此给一个非常短的历史
370	of Qing agricultural taxation.	清农税.
371	So it starts off after the Manchu conquest	所以从满洲征服后开始
372	with some turbulence, as is always the case	和往常一样
373	in early dynastic situations in China.	在中国的早期状态下
374	It coalesces around the Ming tax levels eventually	最终在明税水平上汇合
375	at some point around 1680.	1680年左右的某个时候
376	And from then, the absolute volume of agricultural taxes	从那时起,农业税的绝对数量
377	remains basically locked in place until 1900.	基本上一直被锁到1900年
378	There was one moderate expansion of around 10 to 15%,	一次适度扩张约10%至15%,
379	around 1725, but that was almost kind of like the exception	1725年左右, 但几乎有点像例外
380	that proved the rule, because that one relatively moderate	这证明了规则,因为一个相对温和
381	attempt to expand the agricultural tax base	努力扩大农业税基础
382	triggered this apolitical backlash so large after 1740,	1740年后引发了政治反弹
383	after 1735, that it just served to further entrench	1735年后,它只是帮助进一步巩固
384	this generally conservative outlook	这一普遍保守的前景
385	of the Qing fiscal states.	清财政州。
386	And that's basically just like the backlash	这基本上就像反弹
387	that attempted further just completely entrenched	试图进一步彻底巩固
388	the political refusal to raise taxes.	政治拒绝提高税收。
389	In the meantime, as we talked about,	在此期间,正如我们谈论,
390	the economy triples, the population triples per capita,	经济三倍,人均人口三倍,
391	consumption per capita income by most estimates,	按大多数估计数分列的人均收入
392	perhaps like slightly declines in a very moderate way,	也许像在非常温和的方式略微下降,
393	but for the most part stays stable.	但大部分情况保持稳定。
394	You had pretty much the same living standards	你的生活标准差不多一样
395	in let's just say 1840 as you did perhaps around 1725.	我们只说1840年,也许1725年左右
396	And yet the total volume of the economy,	然而经济总量,
397	the possible tax base that state could tap into	国家可能利用的税收基础
398	basically either doubles or triples depending on your estimate.	基本上或者双倍或者三倍取决于你的估计。
399	The agricultural taxes remained stagnant	农业税停滞不前
400	and they continued to do so after 1850	1850年后他们继续这样做
401	when the state was plunged into non-stop fiscal crisis,	当国家陷入持续的财政危机时,
402	the typing, after that was the Yang Wu movements	之后是杨武运动
403	where the state was trying to basically spend lots of money	州政府想花很多钱
404	on industrialization programs.	关于工业化方案。
405	After that, it was the Song of Japanese War.	后为抗日战争之歌.
406	Defeat was kind of, the defeat in that war was catastrophic	那场战争的失败是灾难性的
407	and created another round of fiscal crisis after 1901.	并制造了1901年后的另一轮财政危机.
408	And that like from 1850 to 1911,	就像从1850年到1911年
409	these final 61 years of the dynasty,	这些王朝的最后61年,
410	the state is pretty much in a perpetual state	国家几乎处于永久状态
411	of either full blown fiscal crisis	要么彻底爆发财政危机
412	or semi-fiscal crisis.	或半财政危机。
413	And during this point,	在此期间,
414	even while commercial taxes were basically,	即使商业税基本上是,
415	the commercial taxes by 1911	到1911年征收商业税
416	were more than 10 times higher than what they were in 1850.	比1850年高十倍多
417	Even in 1901, they were already like four to five times	即使在1901年,他们已经四五次了
418	higher than what they were in 1850,	比1850年还要高
419	but agricultural taxes,	但农业税,
420	nonetheless continued to stay up until 1901.	尽管如此,一直持续到1901年。
421	So there are, of course, as you can imagine,	所以,当然,你可以想象,
422	this is perhaps like one of the,	这也许就像其中之一,
423	I would personally argue this is arguably	我个人认为这可以说是
424	the single most important kind of institutional narrative	唯一的最重要的一种体制性叙事
425	for the entire thing, honestly.	整件事,说实话。
426	So of course it has drawn some academic attention	当然,它引起了一些学术关注
427	and there are three major kinds of explanations.	并有三种主要的解释。
428	So first is the things they didn't need to raise taxes.	所以首先是他们不需要提高税收的东西.
429	Second is they didn't have the capacity to do so.	第二,他们没有这样做的能力。
430	Or third, they lack the ideological will to do so.	第三,他们缺乏这样做的意识形态意愿。
431	In their current forms,	以目前的形式
432	all of these are somewhat incomplete.	所有这些都有些不完整。
433	Given the amount of time that we have,	鉴于我们的时间,
434	I'm gonna try to basically just be really fast	我要尽量做到快一点
435	in talking about these.	在谈论这些。
436	And if we have questions	如果我们有疑问
437	on how exactly these explanations work,	关于这些解释的具体作用,
438	we can talk about them more in the Q&A.	我们可以在"QQA"里多谈一下
439	So the first category is the most popular.	故第一类最受欢迎.
440	There's a large literature that says,	有大量文献说
441	because the Chinese they fought through wars,	因为他们的中国人经历了战争,
442	it was under less fiscal pressure than its European peers	其财政压力低于欧洲同行
443	or perhaps even Japanese peers.	甚至是日本同行
444	And so therefore it naturally taxed less	因此,它自然会减税
445	than these countries that fought more wars.	比那些打过更多战争的国家还要多
446	Now, of course, this has many problems.	当然,这有很多问题。
447	The first of all,	初一颂.
448	the Qing was actually a relatively warlike dynasty.	清人实际上是一个相对战争般的王朝.
449	It fought a lot of wars, expansionist wars.	它经历了许多战争,扩张主义战争.
450	Between 1780, before 1780,	1780年间,1780年之前,
451	after 1840, it fights wars all the time.	1840年以后,它经常进行战争.
452	And also, especially this can't explain	还有,特别是这不能解释
453	the Sino-Japanese comparison	中日对比
454	because for most of the Tokugawa and Japan	因为对于大部分德川和日本
455	was a pretty peaceful society.	一个相当和平的社会。
456	The second category,	第二类
457	the Qing lacked the administrative capacity to raise taxes.	清廷缺乏提高税收的行政能力.
458	This is proven wrong with what happens after 1901.	事实证明,这与1901年以后发生的事情不符。
459	So after 1901,	所以在1901年之后,
460	because the Qing state is so desperate for fiscal income,	因为清国急于财政收入
461	it finally clenches its teeth	终于把牙关了
462	and decides to raise agricultural taxes	决定提高农业税
463	for the first time in two centuries.	这是两个世纪以来第一次
464	At this point,	此时此刻
465	the Qing state's administrative capacity	清政府的行政能力
466	was arguably at its weakest point	在最弱处
467	at any point since 1680.	1680年后的任何时候
468	And so despite being at its administrative nadir	所以,尽管在行政纳迪尔
469	for over this 2.2 century period,	在这2.2个世纪中
470	it actually manages to raise agricultural taxes	它可以提高农业税
471	quite successfully.	相当成功。
472	There were no major revolts.	没有发生重大叛乱。
473	There were some moderate acts of tax resistance.	有一些温和的抗税行为。
474	In the localities, they were dealt with very easily.	在这些地区,他们很容易得到处理。
475	As a general matter, it didn't really destabilize.	一般来说,它并没有真正破坏稳定.
476	The dynasty's collapse after 1911	1911年后王朝崩溃.
477	had virtually nothing to do with the agricultural tax hike.	与农业税的提高几乎没有关系。
478	So the logic has to go	因此,逻辑必须去
479	if you can raise taxes successfully after 1901.	如果你能在1901年后成功提高税收。
480	And of course, after 1911,	当然 1911年以后
481	all these successor states, the Qing,	这些继承国,清人,
482	keep the agricultural taxes at this heightened level	将农业税保持在这一高水平
483	successfully for the next several decades	未来几十年的成功
484	and they even raise them further.	他们甚至把他们抬高。
485	So if you can raise taxes pretty successfully after 1901,	所以如果你能在1901年后成功提高税收
486	even though your administrative capacity	尽管你的行政能力
487	is unusually weak by your own standards,	以自己的标准来说,是异常的软弱,
488	it stands to reason that you probably could have done so	你可能这样做是有道理的
489	at any point before 1901 and not,	在1901年以前的任何时候,
490	and perhaps have been,	也许已经,
491	you likely would have been even more successful	你可能会更成功
492	in engineering and pushing through this tax hike.	在工程和推动税收提高。
493	So the capacity point is likely wrong as well.	因此能力点也可能是错误的.
494	Of course, wrapped into the capacity of one	当然,包裹在一个能力
495	is this kind of like a third possible possibility.	这是第三种可能性。
496	Perhaps Qing political elites	也许是清政治精英
497	just didn't wanna pay taxes themselves	只是不想自己交税
498	and so they kept taxes low.	故他们降低税收。
499	Well, if that's the case, right,	如果是这样的话
500	then it becomes extremely puzzling	然后它变得非常令人费解
501	why political elites agreed to raise commercial taxes,	为什么政治精英同意提高商业税
502	but not agricultural taxes,	但不是农业税,
503	because for the most part,	因为大多数时候
504	compared with the average peasant on the grounds,	与一般农民相比,
505	your average Qing elite,	你的普通清教徒们
506	either political leader or economically,	或政治领袖或经济,
507	they're much more tapped into commerce in many ways	在许多方面,他们更被利用到商业领域
508	than they are into agriculture.	比他们喜欢农业。
509	So they would have still to lose much more,	所以他们还要损失更多
510	and many of them did from the commercial taxes.	他们中有许多人是靠商业税的。
511	And there was a lot of elite unhappiness	和很多精英不高兴
512	over the commercial taxes,	管理商业税,
513	but the state still got it through.	但州政府还是挺过来的
514	In comparison, agricultural taxes,	相比之下,农业税,
515	which was perhaps like a lesser self-interested issue	这也许就像一个较小的自我利益的问题
516	for the elites, that was the holy grail.	对精英来说,那是圣洁的护身符
517	That was the sacred cow that never got touched whatsoever.	这是神圣的牛从来没有被触碰过。
518	So to wrap this up,	所以为了结束这一切
519	the Qing state almost certainly had huge incentives	清州几乎肯定有巨大的刺激
520	to raise agricultural taxes.	提高农业税。
521	It also certainly had the ability to do so.	它当然也有能力这样做。
522	So what's left, right?	那还剩什么,对吗?
523	So there's a traditional school of thought	所以有个传统的思想学校
524	that basically tries to argue that, okay,	基本上试图争论,好吧,
525	if these like rationalist like exclamations	如果这些像理性主义者像叹息
526	don't completely work,	别完全工作
527	let's talk about ideology and culture,	让我们谈谈意识形态和文化,
528	especially Confucian culture.	特别是儒家文化.
529	And the idea here is that there's a Confucian moral bias	这里的想法是,有儒家道德偏见
530	against tax environments and peasants.	对抗税收环境和农民。
531	There's a famous phrase in the Luoyang about,	洛阳有句名言
532	so Confucius does not speak of profit	所以孔子不讲利润
533	because it's unbefitting of a gentleman.	因为它不适合一个绅士。
534	And so the idea is that this moral kind of like,	所以这个想法是这种道德类型喜欢,
535	not quite assault, but this like moral sneering	不算是伤人,但这是道德的嘲讽
536	at taxation and at accumulation of wealth	捐税和积聚财富;
537	was responsible, created kind of like	负责的,创造的类似
538	a general political attitude	一般政治态度
539	in which it was not very easy	在其中,这是不容易的
540	to raise agricultural taxes, especially.	特别是提高农业税。
541	Now, again, like this seems to make some sense,	现在,再次, 像这样似乎有些道理,
542	but then you have to consider again, like it never,	但你必须再考虑一次, 就像它从来没有,
543	this kind of mentality,	这种心态,
544	if it were doing work in Chinese politics,	如果它在中国政治方面起作用
545	it must have been doing work	它一定在工作工作吗?
546	for the entirety of Chinese history	整个中国历史
547	because Chinese history has always been somewhat Confucian	因为中国历史一直有点儒家
548	and Chinese politics has always been	中国政治一直如此
549	since the Han dynasty heavily Confucian	汉朝以来,儒家很重
550	in ideological orientation.	在意识形态导向。
551	So like, for whatever reason,	喜欢,无论什么原因,
552	the Confucian bias never stopped	儒家的偏见从未停止过
553	previous Chinese dynasties from raising taxes,	前中国王朝从提高税收,
554	but somehow it did so in the Qing.	但不知何故,它在清朝时就是这样
555	That seems weird, doesn't it, right?	这似乎很奇怪,不是吗?
556	So like what changed in the Qing?	所以,像什么改变在清?
557	Like did somehow this Confucian ideology	就像这种儒家思想
558	suddenly get weaponized in the Qing	突然在清军中装上武器
559	in ways that it didn't in previous dynasties?	在之前的王朝里不是这样吗?
560	Well, if that's the case,	如果是这样的话
561	then the story's not so much about the bias itself,	故事不是关于偏见本身的
562	it's about how the bias got politically activated, right?	关键是偏见是如何在政治上被激活的对吧?
563	So it's like this kind of explanation	所以这就像这样的解释
564	simply begs the question of what changed in the Qing.	仅仅恳求问清时有何变化.
565	Now, one possible theory is maybe this is all	现在,一个可能的理论是,也许这一切
566	because of Manchu rule, right?	因为满洲的统治,对不对?
567	The Qing is a conquest dynasty	清朝是征服的王朝
568	in the same way that the Yuan was.	和袁世凯一样
569	When you're a conquest dynasty,	当你是一个征服王朝,
570	you're a little bit more nervous	你有点紧张
571	about how the population is gonna respond to taxation	民众如何应对税收
572	because they're less happy with you,	因为他们对你不太满意
573	you have a little bit less inherent political legitimacy.	你的内在政治合法性少了一点
574	Now, the interesting thing here	现在,有趣的事情在这里
575	is that this doesn't seem to explain	这似乎无法解释
576	the overall trend of taxation across the Qing	全清税收总趋势.
577	because the Han resistance to Manchu	因为汉人反抗满洲
578	will progressively weaken over the course of the dynasty.	将在王朝时期逐渐削弱.
579	But at the same time,	但与此同时,
580	if you track the political commitments	如果你跟踪政治承诺
581	to fiscal conservatism,	对财政保守主义,
582	that increases in intensity	强度增加
583	over the course of the dynasty all the time,	在整个王朝期间
584	especially vis-a-vis agricultural taxation, right?	尤其是农业税,对吧?
585	So at the same time that Han resistance	所以同时汉族的反抗
586	to Manchu conquest rule is weakening,	到满洲征服统治正在削弱
587	your commitment to not raising taxes	您承诺不提高税收
588	is actually strengthening.	正在加强。
589	This seems logically consistent	这似乎逻辑上一致
590	with the Manchuriness of the Qing dynasty	和清朝的曼彻里人
591	being a major factor in entrenching	成为巩固
592	this ideological orientation against raising taxes.	这种反对提高税收的意识形态导向。
593	So this is the point where I'm gonna spend the final 10	所以这就是我要花最后10年的时间
594	to 15 minutes just talking about my own theory.	15分钟前刚刚谈了我的理论
595	We're not gonna be able to go into any detail about this.	我们无法详谈这件事
596	So the claim that I want to give,	所以,我想说,
597	and this is the claim that will hopefully explain	希望能解释的是,
598	why the Qing was different	清人为何不同
599	from all these other previous dynasties,	是从以前所有的王朝,
600	was you have to consider,	你要考虑一下
601	for any ideology, for any kind of ideological idea	任何意识形态,任何意识形态思想
602	to become politically,	成为政治,
603	to become really politically powerful,	成为真正的政治力量,
604	it has to have two different dimensions.	它必须有两个不同的维度。
605	There has to be, yes,	必须有,是的,
606	there always has to be kind of like a normative message.	总是有种像一个规范的信息。
607	You can't do X or you must do A.	你不能做X 或者你必须做A。
608	But at the same time,	但与此同时,
609	for that message to really have political force,	为了让这个信息真正具有政治力量,
610	you've got to be able to predict what's gonna go wrong	你得能预测出什么会出错
611	if you don't follow the message.	如果你不听话的话
612	So this is where the pragmatic empirical dimension	所以这就是实用的经验层面
613	of ideology comes.	意识形态的出现。
614	And this is the far less talked about dimension	而这是远远少谈论的维度
615	of an ideology.	是一个意识形态。
616	If you guys think about like the conventional ideologies	如果你们像传统意识形态一样思考
617	that you see in the world today,	你们在今天的世界里所看见的,
618	like every single major highly influential ideology	就像每个有影响力的意识形态
619	has both of these components.	有两个组成部分。
620	So to give you one example,	所以,给你一个例子,
621	let's just talk about liberalism, right?	让我们只谈自由主义,对不对?
622	Like liberalism has a normative,	就像自由主义有规范
623	has a set of normative ideas,	有一套规范的想法,
624	freedom, rights, democracy, so on and so forth.	自由、权利、民主等等。
625	It has also just as powerful	它同样强大
626	as sort of empirical pragmatic predictions	作为一种实证实用的预测
627	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}什么会出问题
628	if you don't obey these normative ideals,	如果你不服从这些规范的理想,
629	where it predicts economic inefficiency, perhaps collapse.	它预测经济效率低下,也许崩溃。
630	It predicts political instability and public uprising.	它预测政治不稳定和公众起义.
631	Like that empirical dimension of liberalism	就像自由主义的经验层面
632	is as important to the political success of liberalism	对自由主义的政治成功同样重要
633	because it spooks, it kind of scares people	因为它吓人,它有点吓人
634	into not wanting to risk the outcomes	不想冒险的结果
635	of being illiberal,	不自由,
636	just as much as the normative exhortions	就像规范的劝告
637	of let's all be free, be democratic, whatever.	让我们都自由,民主,无论什么。
638	The same is true of communism, right?	共产主义也是如此,对吧?
639	There's a normative ideal of communism.	共产主义有一个规范的理想.
640	Then there's the pragmatic stuff,	还有实用的东西,
641	which is the part about Marxism	这是关于马克思主义的部分
642	that you get taught in Chinese history classes,	在华人历史课上教书
643	which is the movement from capitalism to communism	这就是从资本主义走向共产主义
644	is unstoppable, it's inevitable,	是不可阻挡的,这是不可避免的,
645	it's a natural course of history.	这是历史的自然规律
646	Any kind of resistance is futile.	任何一种抵抗都是徒劳的.
647	Don't try it.	别试.
648	So the claim here is that political actors	所以这里的说法是政治人物
649	may respond to normative exhortions	可响应规范性劝告
650	just in and of themselves,	只是他们自己,
651	but they're not gonna do so very consistently.	但他们不会一直这样
652	The response becomes much stronger	反应变得更强
653	when both of these dimensions work together.	当这两个维度合作。
654	So the claim that I want to make	所以我想说
655	is this Chinese normative ideal against taxing peasants	这是中国对农民征税的规范理想吗?
656	was not terribly, like for the most part,	并不是太可怕, 就像大多数时候,
657	it was normative prior to this thing.	在这件事情之前就已经规范了
658	It had a normative message.	它有一个规范的信息。
659	It didn't only have a terribly strong empirical punch-in,	它不仅有非常强大的经验冲进,
660	but after the Ming-Ting transition,	但明廷转型后
661	due to the nature of Ming collapse,	由于明倒塌的性质,
662	this normative messaging gains a very powerful,	这个规范信息获得了非常强大的,
663	very deeply entrenched empirical side.	极深的经验面。
664	All of a sudden, the message goes	突然,消息传出去了
665	from being largely normative,	从基本规范,
666	and in many cases, purely normative,	在许多情况下,纯粹是规范性的,
667	and largely deontological.	并且基本上属于道德范畴。
668	It goes from that to being pragmatic and empirical.	它从这一点变为务实和经验。
669	And the major catalyst for this change was Ming collapse.	而这种变化的主要催化剂是明倒塌.
670	Now, the thing that you want to keep in your head	现在,你想保持的东西在你的脑海里
671	as we move forward about Ming collapse	明倒塌的时候
672	is yes, Chinese dynasties collapsed	是,中国王朝崩溃了
673	for all kinds of reasons,	出于各种原因,
674	and many of them are preceded by peasant rebellions	在他们之前,有许多农民,
675	and so on and so forth.	诸如来等.
676	There was only one major Chinese dynasties	当时只有一个主要的中国王朝
677	that was actually directly killed off	这其实是直接杀死的
678	by a peasant rebellion, and that was the Ming.	由农民的叛乱, 这就是明。
679	The peasant rebellions at the end of the Han,	汉末农民叛乱,
680	the Han, the Tang,	汉人唐人
681	even the kind of anti-Mongol rebellions	即使是反蒙古的叛乱
682	at the end of the Yuan,	元末时,
683	that was not packaged as a peasant rebellion,	他们没有被包装成农民叛乱,
684	but that was kind of like this general,	但是,这有点像这位将军,
685	it was pitched as an anti-Yuan, anti-Mongol	被布置成反袁,反蒙古
686	kind of like ethno-nationalist rebellion.	就像民族民族主义的叛乱
687	Whereas the pure peasant rebellions	而纯粹的农民叛乱
688	at the end of the Han and the Tang	汉和唐末时期
689	actually didn't kill off the dynasties,	实际上没有杀死王朝,
690	they just weakened it and made it more viable	他们只是削弱了它,使它更可行
691	for warlords who put down the peasant rebellion	给那些镇压农民叛乱的军阀
692	to also then stage coups against the dynasties.	然后发动针对王朝的政变
693	The Ming is the only example of a major Chinese dynasties	明朝是中国主要王朝的唯一例子
694	being directly killed off by a peasant rebellion.	被农民叛乱直接杀害
695	These are kind of sacks gaging forces	这些是麻袋的滋味
696	Chongzhen to commit suicide.	崇en间自杀.
697	That psychological shock to the Chinese elite	对中国精英的心理冲击
698	cannot be overstated because again,	不能夸大,因为,
699	this is something that at that point	此时此刻
700	had never actually happened before.	以前从未发生过
701	And it was seen as a much larger	它被视为一个更大的
702	and more serious failure of the Ming system,	更严重的明制失败,
703	at least vis-a-vis a stream of peasants,	至少对一流的农民,
704	than the way the Tang or Han collapsed, right?	而不是唐人或汉人崩溃的方式对吧?
705	And so to observe this transition,	因此,为了观察这一过渡,
706	you can just look at, these are rough caricatures	你看,这些是粗糙的漫画
707	of like pretty detailed kind of historical survey	像相当详细的历史调查
708	of political arguments done in the Ming court	明法庭的政治争论
709	against raising taxes and done in the Qing court	在清廷反对提高税收
710	against raising taxes.	反对提高税收。
711	So during the late Ming,	所以在明末时期
712	there were standard anti-tax argument goes like this.	有标准的反税辩论是这样的。
713	Raising taxes against peasants, it's normal to the bad,	提高农民的税收, 这是正常的坏,
714	the classic say as much.	经典的话也是
715	It might inside rebellion, but frankly,	它可能存在于叛乱之中,但坦率地说,
716	because the last time there was a serious peasant rebellion	因为上次发生了严重的农民叛乱
717	was all the way back at the end of the Tang.	早在唐末时期
718	So we don't really have like a historically	所以我们没有像历史一样
719	proximate example of a peasant rebellion	农民叛乱的近似例子
720	in response to tax hikes.	为了应对税收上涨。
721	So we don't quite, and plus the Tang peasant rebellions	所以我们不完全,再加上唐农民的叛乱
722	weren't exactly in response to tax hikes.	并不是因为税费上涨
723	So we think these tax hikes might inside rebellion,	所以,我们觉得这些税费上涨可能内部叛乱,
724	but we don't really know	但我们不知道
725	how serious the rebellion is gonna be.	叛乱有多严重?
726	We don't know if the rebellion is gonna kill us.	我们不知道叛乱会杀死我们
727	So in the end, the gist of our argument,	最后,我们辩论的要点是
728	the weight of it really lies on the normative messaging,	它的份量真正在于规范性信息,
729	not the prediction of what might happen if you raise taxes.	而不是预测如果你提高税收会发生什么。
730	Nonetheless, the normative considerations	尽管如此,规范方面的考虑
731	are strong enough that you shouldn't do it.	足够强大,你不应该这样做。
732	Now, if you compare this with how early Qing elites	现在,如果你把这比作早清的精英
733	write about the same subject,	写同样的主题,
734	the tone completely changes.	音调完全改变。
735	So the earliest Qing memorials about taxes	所以最早的清末纪念日是关于税收的
736	usually go like this.	通常像这样走
737	We all knew beforehand that it was normative batch	我们早知道是规范的批次
738	to tax peasants.	对农民征税
739	We suspected that things could go wrong,	我们怀疑事情会出错
740	but now we have proof, right?	但现在我们有证据了对吧?
741	Now we know based on the lightening experience	现在我们知道,根据光亮的经验
742	that once you raise taxes beyond a certain threshold,	一旦你提高税收超过一定的限度,
743	you're gonna have massive peasant rebellions	你会有大规模的农民叛乱
744	that can destroy the entire dynasty.	它可以摧毁整个王朝
745	If we want to avoid the same fate,	如果我们想避免同样的命运
746	if we don't wanna be killed by peasant rebellions,	如果我们不想被农民叛乱杀死
747	we can't raise taxes beyond that level.	我们不能提高税收超过这个水平。
748	So as you can easily imagine,	所以,你可以轻易想象,
749	doing X will kill us is a much stronger political message	做X会杀死我们是一个更强大的政治信息
750	than simply doing X was morally wrong.	不仅仅是做X在道德上是错误的。
751	Of course, you want both of these things.	当然,你想要这些东西。
752	You want to say something is morally wrong	你想说一些道德错误的话
753	and it's gonna kill us.	它会杀死我们。
754	If you wanna have maximum effect,	如果你想达到最大效果
755	but having the doing X,	但拥有做X,
756	like being able to say with confidence	就像能够自信地说
757	and with proximate psychologically salient evidence	并有近乎明显的心理证据
758	that doing X will kill us is quite essential in the end	做X会杀死我们最终相当关键
759	to making an ideological message politically powerful.	发出具有政治影响力的意识形态信息。
760	And so of course, Qing political discourse	当然还有清政治论
761	was of the doing X will kill us type,	是做X会杀死我们的类型,
762	whereas preaching discourse	却说:
763	was largely only doing X was morally wrong.	基本上只是做X是道德上的错误。
764	So in the end, it's not that surprising	所以到头来,没什么大不了的
765	that preaching dynasties think,	那些传教者以为:
766	okay, it's morally wrong,	好吧,这是道德错误,
767	but there are also more moral arguments to tax	但也有更多的道德理由来征税
768	if we're gonna spend the money on good things.	如果我们要把钱花在好事上
769	So yeah, it's kind of like makes us feel a little bit dirty,	所以,是的,它有点像让我们感觉有点脏,
770	but whatever.	随便吧
771	But once the message turns into doing X will kill us,	但一旦信息变成X就会杀死我们
772	then of course, everyone's like,	那当然,每个人都喜欢,
773	okay, we can't do this	好吧,我们不能这样做
774	because we don't wanna risk the outcomes.	因为我们不想冒险结果。
775	Now, of course, we don't really have time to go this,	现在,当然,我们没有时间这样做,
776	like the interpretation of the Ming dying	就像对明人垂死的解释
777	to the Ming collapsing the peasant rebellions	明军瓦解农民叛乱
778	that were caused by tax hikes,	由加税造成的,
779	that's a very iffy interpretation.	这是一个非常轻浮的解释。
780	Most historians who study the era will tell you	大多数研究这个时代的历史学家都会告诉你
781	there is massive historical controversy	历史争议很大
782	amongst modern historians	在现代历史学家中
783	of whether that was actually the case,	是否确实如此,
784	which means in some ways,	这在某些方面意味着,
785	like the fact that the early Qing elite	就像早清的精英们
786	almost like just like instantaneously coalesced	就像瞬间凝结在一起一样
787	around the belief that the Ming collapsed	相信明军崩溃
788	because of high taxes.	因为高税。
789	That's something that is not necessarily kind of the,	这不一定是那种...
790	that itself is not an ideologically neutral position	这本身并不是意识形态中立的立场。
791	because ideologically neutral observers	因为思想中立的观察者
792	will not have coalesced around that position	将不与该位置相连
793	nearly as aggressively.	几乎一样激烈。
794	Instead, there would have been massive debate	相反,本来会进行大规模的辩论
795	because frankly, the facts don't always support this.	因为坦率地说,事实并不总是支持这一点。
796	So of course, the fact is the question	所以,当然,事实是问题
797	of why did they actually believe this	他们为什么真的相信
798	in the early Qing and that has to do in some ways	在早期的清朝,这必须在某些方面
799	with the ideological bias of Confucian elites	与儒家精英的思想偏见
800	or like when you think that taxing peasants	或者当你认为对农民征税时
801	is morally dubious and something could go wrong	在道德上是可疑的可能会出问题
802	and then something happens that would seem	然后发生一些事情似乎
803	at least that like first glance to seem to support that,	至少,像第一眼似乎支持这一点,
804	right, there are a bunch of tax hikes	对,有一堆税费上涨
805	from 1580 to 1608 and then to 1620 and the Ming	从1580年到1608年,然后到1620年和明朝
806	and right after that, they're followed cornologically	紧接着,他们被跟踪在玉米学上
807	by peasant rebellions.	由农民的叛乱。
808	Now, most of us know better than to say	现在,我们大多数人知道比说
809	the peasant rebellions were caused by the tax hikes.	农民的叛乱是由增税造成的。
810	You guys can read this,	你们可以读这个
811	I'm not really gonna talk about it too much	我不会说太多的
812	because of time concerns.	因为时间问题
813	We, like most of us know that there's no necessary	我们,和大多数人一样,知道没有必要
814	causal connection between those two things	这两件事之间的因果关系
815	and it's a very complicated debate.	辩论非常复杂
816	However, if you have a cognitive bias,	但是如果你有认知偏差
817	if you have like ideological bias	如果你喜欢思想偏见
818	that tells you that taxing peasants is morally dubious	这说明对农民征税在道德上是可疑的
819	and you're already anxious when you raise taxes,	而且你已经焦急当你提高税收,
820	then when something goes wrong,	当事情发生时,
821	your immediate instinct based on a huge amount	你的直觉基于巨大的金额
822	of cognitive theory will naturally be to blame	认知理论自然要责备
823	the tax hikes for the peasant rebellions.	农民叛乱的税费上涨。
824	So in some ways, the idea, this pragmatic component	因此,在某些方面,这个想法,这个务实的部分
825	of raising taxes will kill us,	提高税收会害死我们
826	that was created under the kind of like cognitive view	这是在认知视角下创造的
827	and bias that was created by the normative component	和规范部分造成的偏见
828	of the ideology itself in the first place.	首先,意识形态本身。
829	So there's a certain kind of like cognitive reinforcement	因此,有某种像认知强化
830	ideological bias story to tell about the formation	思想偏见的故事讲述的形成
831	of the pragmatic idea, but nonetheless,	务实的想法,但是,
832	the pragmatic idea could not have been formed	务实的想法不可能形成
833	without this like major catastrophic events	没有这样的重大灾难事件
834	of the main collapse, right?	主崩塌,对不对?
835	So you have to have both of these things,	所以,你必须拥有这些东西,
836	the a priori normative bias	预先的规范性偏见
837	and the actual interpretable invets.	和可解释的隐匿物。
838	The combination of these two things	这两件事的结合
839	produces the pragmatic empirical,	产生实用的经验,
840	doing X will kill us narrative.	做X会杀死我们的叙述。
841	Now, once you have the narrative,	现在,一旦你得到叙述,
842	the team swings dramatically in the direction	球队向着这个方向剧烈地转动
843	of being fiscally conservative	财政保守
844	and not raising every couple of taxes	而不提高每对夫妇的税收
845	beyond the main levels, but that begs the question.	超越了主要层面, 但这是问题所在。
846	Okay, so this perhaps explains why in the early scene	好吧这也许可以解释为什么在早期
847	there was this deep commitment	有这种深刻的承诺
848	towards fiscal conservatism.	走向财政保守主义.
849	Now, how does that explain the longevity of this idea?	这能解释这个想法的寿命吗?
850	Like after all, it seems fiscal conservatism	毕竟,这似乎是财政保守主义
851	has like a 220 year history.	有类似220年的历史。
852	Surely an idea that comes into existence	肯定有一个想法出现
853	in like the 1750s, in the 1650s,	像1750年代,1650年代一样,
854	can't have just on its own way to that much force	不能只靠自己的力量
855	by like 1840.	大约1840年。
856	Now, this is the part of the story	现在,这是故事的一部分
857	that gets very interesting, right?	变得很有趣,对不对?
858	So the Qing is not the only Chinese dynasty,	所以清朝不是唯一的中国王朝
859	is not merely the only Chinese dynasty	不仅是中国唯一的王朝
860	that refuses to raise agricultural taxes.	拒绝提高农业税。
861	It's also the only major Chinese dynasty	也是中国唯一的大王朝
862	that never conducts a land survey.	从未进行过土地调查。
863	In fact, it legally bans land survey after 1740.	事实上,它在法律上禁止了1740年后的土地调查.
864	Now, why did they ban land survey?	为什么他们禁止土地调查?
865	Because interestingly, the assumption was that,	因为有趣的是,假设是,
866	frankly, if you do a land survey,	老实说如果你做土地调查
867	the peasants will know right off the bat	农民们就会知道
868	that the only reason why the government	这是政府的唯一原因
869	was gonna do a land survey	本来打算做一次土地调查
870	is because it wants to raise taxes.	因为它想提高税收。
871	Like that's frankly the only reason why	老实说,这就是为什么
872	the government would sink money into doing a land survey.	政府会花钱进行土地调查
873	So essentially a land survey sends a signal	基本上土地调查发出信号
874	that we're trying to raise taxes down the road.	我们试图提高税收在路上。
875	So if you're so deathly fearful	所以如果你这么害怕的话
876	of the political consequences of raising taxes,	提高税收的政治后果,
877	then by the same logic,	以同样的逻辑,
878	you want to avoid sending the signal	您想要避免发送信号
879	that you're gonna raise taxes	你会提高税收
880	by conducting the land survey.	进行土地调查。
881	So the Qing never conducts a land survey,	所以清人从不进行土地调查
882	which means that for most of its fiscal history,	也就是说在其大部分财政历史上
883	it's actually flying blind	其实是盲飞的
884	in terms of its empirical understanding	在经验理解方面
885	of how large the economy is, right?	经济有多大,对不对?
886	So the agricultural economy actually triples in size	因此,农业经济的规模实际上增加了三倍
887	from 1680 to the end of the dynasty,	从1680年到王朝末期,
888	but for the most part, and shockingly so,	但大部分, 令人震惊的是,
889	the official government figures stay	官方数字留下
890	at pretty much their 1700 levels for the entire dynasty.	几乎是整个王朝的1700级
891	So according to official records,	所以根据官方记录
892	there's an actual no growth.	实际无增长.
893	Now, elites know this is inaccurate,	现在,精英们知道这是不准确的,
894	but they still don't want a risk of land survey.	但他们还是不想冒土地调查的风险
895	But the thing is, if you want to overturn	但问题是如果你想推翻
896	this dominant idea that we can't raise taxes,	这个主导思想,我们不能提高税收,
897	well, you better be able to say	你最好能说
898	that given what's going on in the overall economy,	考虑到整个经济的发展,
899	we can raise taxes and not have a problem, right?	我们可以提高税收,没有问题,对不对?
900	You want to be able to point to concrete evidence,	你想指出具体的证据
901	politically usable evidence that you can raise taxes	政治上有用的可以提高税收的证据
902	and not trigger pesimability.	而不是引发悲观感。
903	Now, that evidence in this kind of pre-modern setting	现在,这种前现代环境的证据
904	can really only come in the form	只能以表格形式出现
905	of governmentally sanctioned information	政府批准的信息
906	about the overall size of the economy.	关于整个经济规模。
907	And again, the only source of that kind of information	再说一遍,这种信息的唯一来源
908	was the land surveys,	曾经是土地调查,
909	which every other major dynasty had conducted	其他各大王朝都曾执行过
910	prior to the Qing with some regularity.	在清朝以前,有一点规律。
911	So without land surveying,	所以没有土地调查,
912	it becomes politically impossible	政治是不可能实现的
913	to overturn the assumption that if you raise taxes,	推翻假设如果你提高税收,
914	peasants will kill us.	农民会杀了我们。
915	People know that official figures are inaccurate,	人们知道官方的数字是不准确的,
916	but the thing is the burden of proof	但事情是举证责任
917	is always going to be on the people who propose a change,	总是在人民谁提出改变,
918	and they can't point to any concrete	他们不能指任何混凝土
919	politically authoritative evidence	政治权威证据
920	that the economy has grown enough that we can't raise taxes,	经济已经发展到无法提高税收的程度,
921	that we actually can't raise taxes.	我们实际上不能提高税收。
922	So just to wrap it up very quickly,	所以就快把它收起来
923	how did all this all descend?	这一切是怎么发生的?
924	Well, at some point this becomes untenable	那么,在某个时候,这变得无法维持
925	because the tax levels just start too low	因为税额太低了
926	to meet spending needs.	满足支出需要。
927	After 1900, astronomical war and then the peace	1900年后,天文战争,然后和平
928	against the Japanese and against Western powers	对抗日本和西方列强
929	Boxer叛乱期间
930	forced the Qing state into pure desperation.	迫使清国陷入纯粹的绝望之中.
931	They raise agricultural taxes during this period	他们在此期间提高农业税
932	very tentatively and very nervously for the first time.	第一次很短暂很紧张
933	They're still kind of flying blind,	他们仍然在盲目飞行
934	but they have to do it	但他们必须这么做
935	because otherwise they're just facing immediate collapse.	否则他们就要崩溃了
936	Elites expect disaster from the agricultural tax hikes.	Elites预计农业税上涨会引发灾难.
937	Turns out none came.	结果没人来
938	Now, once this happens, it breaks the spell	现在,一旦发生这种情况, 它打破了咒语
939	because people realize, oh, my God,	因为人们意识到, 哦,我的上帝,
940	we've raised taxes for the first time in two centuries.	我们两个世纪以来第一次提高税收了
941	We were expecting some kind of massive peasant rebellion.	我们期待农民发生大规模叛乱
942	Nothing happened.	什么也没有发生。
943	Maybe we can go again.	也许我们可以再去一次。
944	So there's some Bowdoin's successor regimes to the Qing,	因此,有一些鲍多因的继承政权在清朝,
945	even though they frankly were even a minister of the weaker	虽然他们都是弱者
946	in the Qing for quite some time,	在清朝已经很久了
947	to raise taxes even further.	更进一步提高税收。
948	And so between, let's just say, 1911 and 1937,	在1911年和1937年之间
949	agricultural taxes triple in volume.	农业税额为三倍。
950	And frankly, the peasantry,	老实说,农民们,
951	because the taxes start off at such a low base,	因为税从这么低的基础开始,
952	even after they triple, it's still bearable.	即使三倍后,它仍然可以承受。
953	And of course, in the early PRC,	当然,在早期的中华人民共和国,
954	the communist government is a very high tax regime	共产主义政府是一个非常高的税收制度
955	relative to the Qing.	相对清人.
956	It triples the taxes further from the Republican base.	税收比共和党的两倍多了
957	And so by the 1950s, the volume and rate of taxation	到20世纪50年代税收的数量和税率
958	paid by the rural economy is about 10 times as high	由农村经济支付大约10倍
959	or even higher than what it was in 1900.	甚至比1900年还要高
960	So once the myth is shattered,	一旦神话破灭
961	there's no putting it back together.	无法重新组合
962	And instead, the Chinese state swings decisively	相反,中国国家果断地摇摆
963	towards this relatively high tax,	对这个相对高的税,
964	high state capacity model	高州能力模式
965	that frankly we continue to see in operation even today.	坦率地说,即使在今天,我们仍在运作。
966	This account that I've just told you	我刚刚告诉你的这个账户
967	has a number of benefits.	有一些好处。
968	It explains why post-1840,	它解释了为什么1840年后,
969	even in the face of these massive demand hikes,	即使面对这些巨大的需求扩张,
970	there was still for 60 years	还有60年
971	an insistence to not raise the agricultural taxes.	坚持不提高农业税。
972	It explains the vertical uniqueness of the Qing	解释清人的纵向独特性
973	vis-a-vis the Ming and the Song and the Tang.	相对于明人,宋人,唐人.
974	It helps with horizontal uniqueness,	它有助于横向的独特性,
975	at least vis-a-vis Japan.	至少对日本
976	And it also explains very crucially	这也非常关键地解释了
977	why agricultural taxes were treated differently	农业税为何受到不同待遇
978	from non-agricultural taxes,	从非农业税,
979	because in the origin story,	因为起源故事中
980	the Ming collapses because of peasant rebellions.	明军因为农民叛乱而崩溃.
981	It doesn't collapse because of merchant rebellions.	它不会因为商人叛乱而崩溃.
982	So the assumption that raising taxes will kill us	因此,假设提高税收会杀死我们
983	extends only to the peasantry	仅限农民
984	and not to the commercial community.	而不是商业界
985	So everyone thinks that we can raise non-agricultural taxes	所以大家都认为我们可以提高非农业税
986	and still be safe.	并且仍然安全。
987	But the minute that we touch agricultural taxes,	但一旦我们触及农业税,
988	well, then we're attempting fate.	好吧,那么我们尝试命运。
989	And there's a large likelihood	也有很大的可能性
990	that we could be swamped by a massive peasant rebellion	我们可能会被大规模农民叛乱所淹没
991	in short order.	简而言之。
992	So this explains why agricultural taxes	这解释了为什么农业税
993	are treated differently from non-agricultural taxes.	待遇不同于非农业税。
994	And then there's a conclusion, which I'm just gonna skip.	然后有一个结论,我只是要去跳过。
995	There's some general theorizing	有个一般理论
996	about call ideologies function.	关于所谓的意识形态功能。
997	I'm just gonna kind of leave this up there for the Q&A.	我要把这个留在上面给QQA
998	But other than that, that's the basic narrative	但除此之外,这是基本的叙述
999	that I want to tell you guys.	我想告诉你们
1000	And there are many things that we can talk about	我们有很多事情可以谈
1001	in terms of how this works in its more technical details	在技术细节方面
1002	and also about the general implications of this idea	以及这一想法的一般影响
1003	of how ideologies function, but I'm gonna stop there.	关于意识形态如何运作, 但我会停下来。
1004	And hopefully we can have a conversation now.	希望我们能谈谈
1005	All right.	好吧,我们走。
1006	Thank you so much for a very thorough	非常感谢你这么彻底
1007	and fascinating discussion.	和迷人的讨论。
1008	So we'll move now into a Q&A session.	所以,我们现在要进入一个QQA会话。
1009	And again, please feel free everybody to ask questions	再说一遍,请大家随意提问
1010	in either Chinese or English.	中文或英文。
1011	You can either raise your hand	你可以举起手来
1012	and I will be able to call on you	我就能召唤你
1013	so that you can interact directly with Professor Zhang,	这样你就可以直接和张教授互动
1014	or you can leave some questions in the chat box as well.	或者你也可以把一些问题放在聊天框里
1015	And in the interest of time,	为了时间考虑
1016	I may not be able to get to everything,	我可能无法做到一切
1017	but I can certainly try to filter	但我肯定可以试着过滤
1018	through some of those questions.	通过其中一些问题。
1019	So anybody that has questions, feel free to raise your hand.	所以,任何有疑问的人, 请随便举手。
1020	I'm going to actually preemptively ask a question	我要先发制人地提问
1021	because I know as, I don't want to call myself a historian,	因为我知道我不想自称历史学家
1022	but with an undergrad history degree,	但有研究生历史学位,
1023	I will say that the first question that pops up to my mind	我会说,第一个问题出现在我脑海里
1024	is a question about sources and sort of,	这是一个关于来源的问题和排序,
1025	you've obviously had a very wide ranging discussion here,	你显然在这里进行了非常广泛的讨论,
1026	but if you could just talk a little bit	但是,如果你可以只是说话一点点
1027	about what sources you used in your research, I think.	关于你用什么来源在你的研究,我想。
1028	So because I'm focused on the kind of like	所以,因为我专注于那种
1029	the domestic aspect of the Qing,	清国国内方面,
1030	like how it treated its core Han population,	喜欢它如何对待核心汉族人口,
1031	I see in the chat box,	我从聊天盒里看到
1032	people are asking about the Manchu sources.	人们在问满洲消息
1033	I have RAs who read Manchu	我有读满洲的RAs
1034	who have read a few of them for me.	他曾为我读过其中的几篇。
1035	It turns out that like,	原来是这样
1036	when you're talking about how to tax the Han population,	当你谈论如何征税汉族人口,
1037	the vast, vast, vast majority of your sources	绝大多数的消息来源
1038	are in Chinese, not in Manchu.	是中文,不是满洲
1039	The Manchu sources are mainly are useful for,	满洲人主要有用
1040	like Manchu was used as the primary language	就像满洲作为第一语言一样
1041	for imperial conquests	帝国的征服
1042	and for managing say Xinjiang, Tibet or Manchuria.	并因管理说新疆,西藏或满洲.
1043	If you're talking about taxing like Zhongyuan or Jiangnan,	若说税如崇y或江南.
1044	the dominant language is going to be Chinese	汉语是主语
1045	and the main people who are discussing the policies	以及讨论这些政策的主要人士
1046	are actually going to be the Han Chinese advisors	其实是汉族的顾问
1047	to the Qing court.	至清宫.
1048	So the dominant set of materials that I use	所以我使用的主导材料
1049	are like this vast collection	就像是这个巨大的收藏
1050	that I had to pull from the archives	我不得不从档案中提取
1051	and some other sources of basically political writings	以及一些其他基本是政治著作的来源
1052	and political debates at the Qing courts.	以及清廷的政治辩论.
1053	Most of my sources are memorials.	我的消息来源大多是纪念馆
1054	And then I have, I think by last count,	然后我,我想最后数,
1055	something like 2,000 of these	差不多两千个
1056	stretching across the entire dynasty.	横跨整个王朝
1057	Not all of them are useful.	并不是所有这些都有用。
1058	Then we pick the ones that like we find	然后我们选那些像我们找到
1059	and pick the ones that actually are.	并选择那些其实是。
1060	And apart from that,	除此之外,
1061	like we supplement that by a pretty large amounts	就像我们补充了相当大一笔钱
1062	of these political writings, essays,	这些政治著作,论文,
1063	and so on and so forth.	诸如来等.
1064	So this is relatively standard	所以这是比较标准的
1065	Qing elite political and ideological history,	清末政治思想史
1066	which means the sources that I use are not so different	这意味着我使用的来源并没有那么不同
1067	from the sources that everyone uses	从每个人使用的来源
1068	to discuss this kind of thing.	讨论这种事情。
1069	It's a combination of memorials, essays,	这是纪念品,散文,
1070	private books, and so on and so forth.	私书等.
1071	Great, all right.	太好了,没事的。
1072	So we've already got quite a few questions from people.	我们已经从人们那里得到了很多问题。
1073	So I'll just go down the line here, Gavin.	所以,我只要走下去在这里,加文。
1074	And again, everybody in the interest of time,	再说一遍,大家为了时间的利益
1075	please try to keep your questions to be actually questions	请尽量把问题留作问题
1076	and to keep it relatively concise.	并保持它相对简洁。
1077	All right, thank you, Devin.	好的谢谢德文
1078	Thank you so much, Professor Zhang	谢谢你,张教授
1079	for this wonderful, very intriguing presentation.	对于这个精彩的,非常有趣的介绍。
1080	I just have one clarification and one question.	我只得到一个澄清和一个问题。
1081	So for clarification,	所以,为了澄清,
1082	when you're talking about the Song dynasty	说宋朝时
1083	as the dynasty that has the strongest state capacity,	作为拥有最强大国家能力的王朝,
1084	do you mean the entire Song period	你是说整个宋时期吗?
1085	or you mean the Beishong or Nansong period?	还是说北宋还是南宋时期?
1086	Is there like a difference?	有区别吗?
1087	Yes, this is surprisingly even the Nansong	对,连南宋都想不到
1088	has stronger fiscal capacity than any other Chinese dynasty.	其财政能力比其他中国王朝都强.
1089	And frankly, the Southern Song	老实说,南宋人
1090	actually has higher fiscal capacity	实际上财政能力比较强
1091	on a kind of like a racial basis than the Northern Song,	和北宋相比,有种种族
1092	mainly because it was under stronger military pressure.	主要是因为它受到更强大的军事压力.
1093	So, yeah.	对
1094	Okay, I mean, it's really interesting	好吧,我的意思是,这真的很有趣
1095	that you're trying this kind of notion	你在尝试这种想法
1096	that wars built strong state	战争建立了强大的国家
1097	and that you talk about how Song	说起宋江
1098	that's kind of roughly weak,	有点软弱
1099	throughout the military base,	在整个军事基地,
1100	but it's actually a strong state physically wise.	但它实际上是一个强大的状态物理上明智。
1101	And my question, I think-	我的问题,我想...
1102	Well, the thing about the Song	歌谣的事
1103	is that the Song has a larger military	是宋军有更大的军队
1104	on a per capita basis	按人均计算
1105	than any of the other Chinese dynasty.	比其他任何中国王朝都重要
1106	It has to, right?	它必须,对不对?
1107	The military was really poorly run and inefficiently organized.	军队的运行确实很差,组织效率低下.
1108	So it loses lots of wars,	因此,它失去了许多战争,
1109	but that doesn't mean the Song	但这并不代表宋人
1110	didn't spend on military capacity, it does.	不花在军事能力上,它是。
1111	Okay.	摆
1112	Okay, interesting.	好吧,有趣的是,我们是...
1113	Well, my question is actually is about like how,	嗯,我的问题其实是像如何,
1114	like why, like how the cognitive bias is so strong	像为什么,像如何认知偏执是如此强烈
1115	to the point that for Qing dynasty	对清朝来说
1116	that, you know, conquer the Zhongyuan area	征服了崇远地区
1117	and have like all these, like for me,	和我一样,
1118	like kind of draconian policy,	像一种严肃的政策,
1119	like like all these conquests	像所有这些征服
1120	and like all these capacities,	像所有这些能力,
1121	they have a strong coercive apparatus,	他们有一个强大的强制装置,
1122	but then they, like how can the cognitive bias	但是,然后他们,像如何可以认知偏差
1123	be so strong to the point that they were like,	坚强到他们喜欢,
1124	no, like we are not, we can't do that.	不,就像我们不是, 我们不能这样做。
1125	Even though, I mean, if they think about the late Ming period,	虽然,我的意思是,如果他们想到晚明时期,
1126	they have much more like,	他们更喜欢,
1127	like from my point of view,	像我的观点,
1128	more like coercive apparatus to do so	更像是强制装置
1129	if they can just simply raise taxes.	如果他们能只是提高税收。
1130	Oh, so you, I think you're right.	哦,所以你,我认为你是对的。
1131	The Qing, the early Qing, even the early Qing,	清人,早清人,连早清人,
1132	likely actually has more control over a lot of regions	很可能对很多地区有更大的控制权
1133	than the late Ming did.	比后来的明人还厉害
1134	And so perhaps there was more capacity,	所以也许还有更多的能力,
1135	but the thing is, you have to think about	但问题是, 你必须想想
1136	what these Chinese literati had just been, right?	这些中国文字刚刚是什么,对不对?
1137	They had just observed this 300-year-old dynasty	他们刚刚看到这个三百年的王朝
1138	collapse to a peasant rebellion.	倒向农民的叛乱。
1139	The capitalist act,	资本主义行为,
1140	the, there was a massive butchering	有个大屠夫
1141	of the Beijing political elite by Li Zichang's armies	李子昌的军队
1142	that's followed by catastrophic invasion	之后又发生了灾难性的入侵
1143	from the Manchus, the emperor hangs himself.	从满洲,帝自吊之.
1144	Like none of this had ever happened previously, right?	好像以前没发生过这种事对吧?
1145	So the perception was like,	所以感觉就像,
1146	we failed more dramatically in this instance.	我们这次失败的更严重。
1147	We, in terms of like the governing class, the literati,	我们,就像统治阶级, 利特拉蒂,
1148	like this is the most serious example	像这样,这是最严重的例子
1149	of our domestic failure, perhaps in Chinese history.	我们国内的失败,也许在中国历史上。
1150	Like across the thousands of years of Chinese history,	就像中国几千年的历史
1151	we have never quite failed like this.	我们从未如此失败过
1152	And so of course, like the ascologues have shown,	所以,当然,像星座显示,
1153	like the Ming-Ting transition was enormously traumatic	就像明廷的转变造成了巨大的创伤
1154	for pretty much every, like near even the guys	几乎每个,像接近甚至家伙
1155	who switched over to the Qing	转投清军
1156	and offered their allegiance to the new Manchu court.	并效忠于新满洲国朝廷.
1157	Even for them, this was a massively traumatic experience,	即使对他们来说,这是一次巨大的创伤经历,
1158	the psychological shame, the humiliation,	心理上的耻辱羞辱
1159	the extreme anxiety, right?	极度焦虑,对不对?
1160	So they've just been through like a concentrated	所以,他们刚刚经历了像集中
1161	10 to 15-year period in which their entire world	全世界10至15年期间
1162	has blown to smithereens.	已经吹到了这里。
1163	When you come out of that period,	当你走出那个时期,
1164	what you immediately want to do	你马上想做的事
1165	is you want to find a usable political message	您想要找到一个有用的政治信息
1166	to show that you've learned from this experience.	来证明你从这段经历中吸取了教训.
1167	Or like every single crisis,	或者像每一次危机,
1168	and you see this in modern politics every single time,	你每次都在现代政治中看到这一点
1169	every single crisis is followed immediately	每一次危机都会立即发生
1170	by like massive illegalization	就像大规模非法化
1171	to get a usable message out of the crisis.	从危机中获取有用的信息。
1172	COVID has done this, the financial crisis in 2008 did this.	COVID做到了这一点,2008年的金融危机做到了这一点。
1173	Elites try to call us around one centralized message	Elites试图给我们打电话围绕一个集中的信息
1174	really quickly.	动作很快
1175	And of course, the psychological incentive to do so	当然, 这样做的心理激励
1176	after the Ming collapse was much, much stronger	明军垮台后,更强大
1177	because of the nature of the trauma	因为创伤的性质
1178	than any modern trauma, like any modern crisis	比任何现代的创伤, 像任何现代的危机
1179	that we've encountered in our lifetimes.	我们一生中遇到的
1180	So you have to put yourself into their shoes.	所以,你必须把自己在他们的鞋子。
1181	Now, of course, from the Qing court perspective,	当然,从清廷的角度来看
1182	it wants to pacify the populations	它想安抚民众
1183	when you have like nearly every single Han Chinese advisor	当你喜欢几乎每一个汉族中国顾问
1184	to you who presumably these guys know the country	你猜他们知道这个国家
1185	much better than you do.	比你强得多
1186	Just like lying down on the tracks	就像躺在铁轨上一样
1187	and saying that like, my God,	然后说,就像,我的上帝,
1188	if you raise taxes beyond this level,	如果你把税收提高到这个水平以上,
1189	you're gonna just repeat the mistakes of the Ming	你要重复明朝的错误
1190	and you're gonna suffer the same fate.	你会遭受同样的命运
1191	You as a new conquest dynasty	你是一个新的征服王朝
1192	hoping to appease the local population somewhat,	希望安抚当地居民,
1193	you have a pretty strong incentive to listen to them.	你有很强的动力去倾听他们的声音
1194	So that explains this massive shift	所以这解释了这个巨大的转变
1195	towards fiscal conservatism in the early dynasty.	在早期的王朝向财政保守主义.
1196	Now, of course, the entrenchment and continuation	现在,当然,巩固和延续
1197	of that swing has a different logic to it.	秋千的逻辑不同
1198	And then there we go more into the realm of like,	然后,我们进入更多的领域,喜欢,
1199	if you don't do land surveys,	如果你不做土地调查,
1200	the politics are such that you can't	政治是这样的,你不能
1201	even correctly propose raising taxes.	甚至正确建议提高税收。
1202	That's a bit of a different rationale	这理由有点不同
1203	than the original ideological swing and the early Qing.	比最初的意识形态摇摆和早期的清。
1204	But for the other ideological swing,	但对于另一个思想摇摆,
1205	you have to put yourselves into their shoes	你必须把自己的鞋子。
1206	and try to see the world from their point of view.	试着从他们的角度看待世界
1207	And that point of view is an incredibly tragic one.	这种观点令人难以置信的悲剧。
1208	All right, thank you so much, professor.	好吧,非常感谢,教授。
1209	Great, let's move on here.	很好,我们继续吧
1210	Wang Dantie.	王丹铁.
1211	Thank you, Dan.	谢谢你,丹。
1212	And thank you, Professor John,	谢谢你,约翰教授
1213	for this amazing presentation.	为了这个惊人的演示。
1214	So I'm Albert, I'm from the University of Pennsylvania	我是艾伯特,宾夕法尼亚大学的
1215	studying mathematics, economics, and political science,	学习数学、经济学和政治学,
1216	and looking for further study in law school	并寻求在法学院深造
1217	and public policy school.	和公共政策学校。
1218	So I'm quite interested in what you have discussed	所以我对你讨论过的事很感兴趣
1219	about like this amazing presentation.	喜欢这个惊人的演示。
1220	So one of the quick questions that I want to ask is that	所以我想问的一个问题是
1221	when we're talking about the agriculture taxation	当我们谈论农业税时
1222	for the Qing dynasty, I was wondering like how much,	对于清朝,我在想... 有多少
1223	like what's the portion of like the agriculture tax serves	比如说农业税是多少
1224	as a fiscal revenue income,	作为财政收入,
1225	fiscal revenue source for the Qing dynasty.	清朝财政收入来源.
1226	And therefore the real question is how important it is	因此,真正的问题在于它有多重要
1227	to finance the fiscal like foundations of the empire	以资助财政就像帝国的基础
1228	through the agriculture tax.	通过农业税。
1229	Yeah, so for most of the Qing, right?	是啊,所以大多数清人,对不对?
1230	Like, you know, your overall economy is 70% agricultural.	比如,你知道,你的总体经济是70%的农业。
1231	This actually goes up in the late Qing to about 80%.	这实际上在晚清上升到了大约80%.
1232	But for most of the Qing, it's 70%,	但对于大多数清人来说,是70%,
1233	which corresponds to roughly something between 70 to 80%	大约相当于70%至80%
1234	of governmental revenue came from agriculture.	政府收入来自农业。
1235	After 1850, commercial taxes just dramatically shoot up,	1850年后商业税大幅上涨
1236	whereas agricultural taxes continue to stagnate.	而农业税却继续停滞不前。
1237	So by 1900, commercial taxes overtake our agricultural taxes	到1900年,商业税就超过我们的农业税
1238	as the primary source of income.	作为主要收入来源。
1239	But the problem is this is not an economy	但问题是这不是经济
1240	in which commerce is economically dominant, right?	商业在经济上占主导地位,对吧?
1241	Like agriculture is still economically dominant.	如农业在经济上仍然占主导地位。
1242	So when more than half of your income	所以当你收入超过一半的时候
1243	comes from 20% of your economy,	从你20%的经济,
1244	you can easily imagine why that's an economic problem,	你很容易想象为什么这是个经济问题,
1245	because you're sharply undertaxing parts of your economy	因为你在经济中严重减税
1246	and you're arguably overtaxing	你可能太过税了
1247	the more economically modernized	经济现代化程度越高
1248	productive parts of your economy.	经济的生产部分。
1249	So one of the interesting things	所以其中一件有趣的东西
1250	is that after they raise taxes on commerce,	在他们提高商业税后,
1251	which mainly is borne by industrial product,	主要由工业产品承担,
1252	like manufacturing and so on and so forth,	像制造等等,
1253	the goal of the late Qing dynasty	清朝末年的目标
1254	is constantly to try to industrialize, right?	是不断尝试工业化,对不对?
1255	But partly because of their fiscal policy,	但部分是由于他们的财政政策,
1256	the share of the economy that is agricultural	农业在经济中的份额
1257	actually goes up during this period.	这段时期真的上升了
1258	And in some ways, that's just kind of like	在某些方面这就像
1259	a rational response to governmental fiscal policy, right?	对政府财政政策的合理反应,对不对?
1260	If you invest in manufacturing or commerce,	如果你投资于制造业或商业,
1261	you're gonna pay very high taxes.	你会付很高的税。
1262	If you invest in agriculture,	如果你投资农业,
1263	you're gonna pay nearly none of this in taxes	你几乎不付这些税
1264	at the same time.	同时。
1265	So a lot of elite money actually pours into buying land,	所以,很多精英的钱实际上投入购买土地,
1266	and investing in agriculture during this period in which the government actually would have wanted	在政府实际希望的这一时期,农业投资
1267	that money to go into industry.	那些钱进入工业。
1268	So from the late Qing court's perspective, a lot of this	因此,从晚清朝廷的角度来看,很多这样的
1269	commercial tax hiking was kind of counterproductive and destructive for their own	商业税徒步旅行对其自身有反作用和破坏性
1270	purposes.	目标。
1271	But at the same time, they're still under such a tight ideological straitjacket,	但与此同时,他们仍然处于如此紧张的意识形态束缚,
1272	raising agricultural taxes is just out of the question.	提高农业税是完全不可能的。
1273	So you can see why, given the scale and	所以,你可以看到为什么,考虑到规模和
1274	the shape of the economy, this kind of like late Qing commercially oriented fiscal transition was	经济的形态,就像晚清商业导向的财政转型
1275	not exactly that sustainable.	不完全可持续。
1276	So a follow-up question is a somehow similar logic to the	因此,一个后续问题是一个有点相似的逻辑
1277	regular economics.	常规经济学。
1278	That is, if you reduce the taxes and incentivize the increase of the tax base,	也就是说,如果你减税激励增加税基,
1279	let's say the agricultural production, you actually have more tax income than	比起农业生产,你的税收收入还多
1280	you have been before.	你以前去过
1281	But it seems that from your perspective, even though the agriculture tax	但从你的观点来看,尽管农业税
1282	income might increase over time, but on the other hand, it's stifles the increase of the manufacturer	收入可能随时间而增加但另一方面却抑制了制造商的增长
1283	and the industrial sector, which overall hampers the productivity and the national capacity of the	和工业部门,总体上妨碍生产力和国家能力
1284	economy.	经济。
1285	Yeah.	对
1286	So you look at the Japanese experience, right?	所以,你看看日本的经验,对不对?
1287	So what does a less	那么,什么是少一点
1288	ideologically hampers say do when it wants to stimulate industry?	意识形态上的障碍是,当它想刺激工业时,它会做什么?
1289	Oh, what the Japanese	哦,什么是日本人吗?
1290	he said was they tax the hell out of agriculture after the major transition, after the major	他说,他们在大转型之后, 在大转型之后, 征收农业税。
1291	restoration.	修复。
1292	And they use that money to fund national banks and investments in industry,	他们用这笔钱资助国家银行和产业投资
1293	what you actually want to be doing is extract resources from your non-industrial sectors and	你实际上想要做的是从你的非工业部门提取资源,
1294	pour the money into industry.	把钱倒进工业
1295	Now, what the Chinese government was doing more or less was	现在,中国政府所做的是
1296	actually the opposite.	其实恰恰相反。
1297	And I think it knew the problems of doing that, but in its own mind,	我想它知道这样做的问题, 但是在它自己的想法,
1298	it thought that it had no choice.	它认为它别无选择。
1299	Yeah.	对
1300	Just a final question.	最后一个问题
1301	And yes,	没错,
1302	my apologies for taking so much time.	很抱歉我花了这么多时间
1303	And just the final question, which is a more broadly question.	最后一个问题,这是一个更广泛的问题。
1304	If you have more questions, I think we should move on.	如果你有更多的问题, 我认为我们应该继续前进。
1305	But if you have more questions,	但如果你还有问题
1306	just email me.	直接给我发邮件
1307	Okay.	摆
1308	All right.	好吧,我们走。
1309	Sure.	当然
1310	So from the from the shift from	所以从班级开始
1311	Go ahead and you can email directly.	你可以直接发邮件
1312	All right.	好吧,我们走。
1313	Let's move on to rain.	动向雨.
1314	So basically you mentioned that Ting did not like just leave the military and just there,	所以,基本上你提到,丁不喜欢只是离开军队,就在那里,
1315	but spent some of the taxes collected towards the military construction, but it was just	但把部分税收花在了军事建设上
1316	really bad.	真的很严重。
1317	However, that Ting spending money towards the military would mean that it didn't	然而,丁向军方花钱意味着没有
1318	see it as insignificant.	视其无足轻重.
1319	So why did it collapse so badly?	那么,为什么它崩溃这么严重?
1320	No.	没有
1321	So could you clarify the question?	你能澄清一下问题吗?
1322	What I said about the military being inefficient was	我说军队效率低下
1323	not the same, right?	不一样,对不对?
1324	The Ting actually had a very efficient military.	丁军实际上拥有非常高效的军队.
1325	Yeah.	对
1326	But like, why did it still fail to defend itself against the attacks that happened later on?	但是,为什么它仍然未能抵御后来发生的攻击?
1327	Oh, you mean this?	哦你是说这个?
1328	Why was the Ting military unable to like ward off Western	为什么丁军不能喜欢西方的防守
1329	gunships and things like that?	武装之类的?
1330	Well, there's a like the military gap between industrial and	嗯,有一个类似军事差距在工业与
1331	non-industrial states really can't be covered just by efficient organization.	非工业国家真的不能仅仅通过高效的组织覆盖。
1332	So at some point,	所以,在某些时候,
1333	the fact that you're a pre-industrial power and the Brits, the English and the French and the	你是一个工业前强国英国人,英国人,法国人
1334	Germans are industrialized, and even the Japanese are on their path are pretty heavily industrialized.	德国人是工业化的,即使是日本人也走上了他们的道路,相当的工业化.
1335	By the 1890s, that becomes impossible to overcome if you don't have your own industrial capacities,	到了1890年代,如果你没有自己的工业能力,那就变得无法克服,
1336	right?	对吧?
1337	So in many ways, like that doesn't only have, those defeats don't have that much to do	所以,在许多方面,像那不只是有, 那些失败没有太多做
1338	with either fiscal capacity or military capacity in the traditional sense, unless	财政能力或传统意义上的军事能力,除非
1339	you want to believe, as I do, but this is kind of like a roundabout belief, that the weak fiscal	你想相信,像我一样, 但这有点像一个环绕的信念, 弱的财政
1340	capacity of the Qing state had detrimental effects on its capacity to industrialize and build kind	清国的能力对其工业化和造型能力产生了不利影响
1341	of like a military industrial complex.	就像一个军事工业综合体
1342	Perhaps the best comparison is between like the Qing and the	也许最好的比较是像清和清
1343	Japanese.	日语.
1344	They start off around 1860, both embark on this path towards trying to rapidly industrialize	他们开始于1860年左右, 他们都走上这条道路试图迅速工业化
1345	and to rapidly build up a modern military.	并迅速建立一支现代化的军队。
1346	The Japanese state has a far higher level,	日本国家的地位要高得多
1347	even in absolute terms, of fiscal capacity than the Qing state does.	即使是绝对的,财政能力也比清国强.
1348	And so it spends much of	所以它花了很多钱
1349	that money trying to basically build up an industrial framework to beef up its military.	那些钱试图基本建立工业框架来强化它的军队。
1350	Once it does that, by the 1890s, its industrial production capacities have completely outstripped	一旦它这样做, 到1890年代, 它的工业生产能力已经完全超过
1351	what you see in the Qing.	清时所见.
1352	And the tactics, the outcome of the First Sino-Japanese War in 1895	战术,1895年第一次中日战争的结果
1353	are pretty much a consequence of that.	这几乎是后果。
1354	So you can draw a connection between weak fiscal capacity in	这样你就可以在财政能力薄弱之间建立联系
1355	the Qing and weak military capacity, but it's not quite so direct as it was when you're purely just	清军实力薄弱,但并不那么直接
1356	comparing pre-modern military.	比较前现代军事。
1357	I remember at the beginning of the Qing dynasty, they had one of the	我记得清朝初期他们有一个
1358	most advanced military embankments.	最先进的军事堤防
1359	So is it due to like how their cities were arranged	也是因为他们的城市是怎样安排的
1360	and how their communities worked that it gradually faltered?	他们的社区如何运作?
1361	No, I mean, like even by, I would say	不,我的意思是,像甚至,我会说
1362	like, you know, in terms of domestic, military, and even by the Taiping, like even by 1850,	比如,在国内,军事方面,甚至太平军方面,就像1850年以前,
1363	when the Qing is not fighting a modernized, industrialized opponent, it still mobilizes	当清军没有与现代化的工业化的对手作战时, 清军仍然在动员
1364	pretty fast and in some ways pretty efficiently.	相当快在某些方面还相当有效
1365	So there was decay and corruption	所以有腐朽和腐败
1366	in its military through the centuries.	数世纪以来的军队
1367	But no, like you look at the mobilization	但是,不,就像你看动员
1368	against the Taiping, it was pretty fast, pretty efficient.	对抗太平军,速度很快,效率相当高.
1369	And by like pre-modern standards,	和像前现代标准,
1370	it was quite effective.	这是相当有效的。
1371	The Qing's major defeats, its major military failures all come in the face	清军大败,大败,大败军,都来了
1372	of industrialized foreign powers banging down on stores.	外国工业化势力在商店里捣乱
1373	And for that, I mean, no amount of efficient	为此,我的意思是,没有多少效率
1374	organization is going to save you when you're trying to fight a gunpowder-oriented industrialized	组织会拯救你当你试图战斗一个面向火药工业化
1375	opponent with pre-modern weapons.	与前现代武器。
1376	So for me, industrialization is like the sine qua non	所以对我来说,工业化就像一个必要条件
1377	of being able to fight with any kind of parity against industrialized opponents.	能够以任何一种对等方式对抗工业对手。
1378	If you don't	如果你没有
1379	have that, regardless of decay or not in institutional terms, you're going to lose.	不管在体制上是否衰败你都会输的
1380	Thank you.	谢谢
1381	All right, thank you.	好吧,谢谢你。
1382	Eric?	埃里克吗?
1383	Thank you, Devin, and thank you, Professor, for your amazing speech.	谢谢你,德文,谢谢你,教授, 你的精彩演讲。
1384	I'm Eric, an incoming freshman at Yale and US College.	我是艾瑞克,是耶鲁和美国学院新生
1385	And my question is,	我的问题是,
1386	how did the fact that the ruling Manchu were ethnically different from the majority of the	统治的满洲民族如何与多数民族不同
1387	nation playing to this topic we've been talking about?	国家玩这个话题我们一直在谈论?
1388	Is there perhaps an ethnic narrative here?	这里是不是有种族叙事?
1389	Right, so exactly.	没错,没错
1390	As I talked about during the course of the presentation, this is one	正如我在演讲中谈到的,这是一个
1391	you could use.	你可以用起来。
1392	It's not exactly a terribly persuasive one for the following reasons.	这不是一个非常有说服力的问题,原因如下。
1393	One is that if you just look at the sources, they don't mention the Manchurianism of the	一个是,如果你只是看来源, 他们没有提到满洲主义
1394	Dias Dias as a reason to not raise taxes very often.	迪亚斯·迪亚斯作为不经常征税的理由.
1395	In fact, like after like 1670,	事实上,就像1670年后,
1396	effectively not at all.	完全没有。
1397	If it were a continuing rationale, you would have expected this concern	如果这是个持续的理由你本该想到的
1398	over ethnic tensions to at least be mentioned.	至少应提及种族紧张关系。
1399	It was not taboo to mention this in the context	在背景中提及这一点并非禁忌
1400	of high-level political debates, right?	高层政治辩论,对不对?
1401	But it never was mentioned.	但它从来没有被提及。
1402	The second thing is, as I said, the ethnic tensions receded over the course of the dynasty.	第二件事,正如我所说的,民族矛盾在王朝时期逐渐消退.
1403	So the ethnic tensions are highest at the beginning of the dynasty, right after the conquest.	因此民族矛盾在王朝初期最高,紧接征服之后.
1404	Eventually, there's some synthesization of the Manchu ruling elite.	最终,对满洲统治精英进行了一些合成.
1405	They get merged into Han	他们被合并为汉族
1406	culture a little bit.	一点点文化。
1407	The Han elites get used to the Manchu rule.	汉族精英习惯了满族的统治.
1408	They get merged into	他们被合并到
1409	these ruling institutions a little bit.	这些统治机构一点点。
1410	And so this process of mutual adaptation	所以这个相互适应的过程
1411	by 1700s produces what you would likely consider to be a pretty stable, durable regime.	到1700年代,你可能会认为是一个相当稳定,持久的制度。
1412	It keeps getting better from that point onwards, at least in terms of ethnic tensions.	从那时起,情况不断好转,至少在种族紧张关系方面是如此。
1413	At the same time, the Qing fiscal stagnation does not really set in until after 1700, right?	同时,清政府的财政停滞直到1700年以后才真正形成,对吗?
1414	So right when your ethnic tensions are falling, your level of political commitment to fiscal	所以,当你的种族矛盾下降,你对财政的政治承诺水平
1415	stagnation and conservatism is actually peaking and increasing over time, right?	停滞和保守主义实际上正随着时间的流逝而达到顶峰和增加,对吧?
1416	So if you compare that trajectory, one is declining, one is going up,	所以如果你比较一下轨迹一个在下降一个在上升
1417	it seems kind of dubious to explain one or the other, right?	这似乎有点可疑解释一个或另一个,对不对?
1418	So this is not to say that the	所以,这不是说
1419	Manchus of the Qing court didn't have any effect, and the early Qing elite did.	清朝宫廷的满族没有产生任何影响,早期的清朝精英也产生了影响.
1420	But the later	但后来
1421	entrenchment, the later escalation and institutionalization of the fiscal stagnation,	财政停滞的巩固、后来的升级和制度化,
1422	it's hard to say that had too much of a connection with the ethnic tensions caused by the Manchu	很难说这跟满洲人造成的种族矛盾有太多关系
1423	conquest.	征服
1424	Great.	不错
1425	And I think we can squeeze in maybe one or two more, if that's okay.	如果可以的话我们可以再挤一两个
1426	All right, Nick.	好吧,尼克,你好吗?
1427	Systemically learning Western theories, for example, the Western democratic theory	系统学习西方理论,例如西方民主理论
1428	or the Western tax theory, also caused China's own original tax,	或西方的税收理论, 也引起中国自己的原始税收,
1429	and then the entire system, and then it collapsed, and then it led to the final corruption of the Qing dynasty.	而后整个制度瓦解,导致清朝最终腐败.
1430	Um, I think this question has to be divided into a few parts.	我想这个问题应该分成几个部分
1431	The first question is whether the Qing dynasty is	第一个问题是,清朝是否
1432	the same as the Qing dynasty, and the second question is whether the Qing dynasty is the same as the Qing dynasty.	与清朝相同,第二个问题是清朝是否与清朝相同.
1433	I think it's hard to say.	我觉得很难说
1434	There's not much difference between the Qing dynasty and the Ming dynasty in this respect.	清朝和明朝在这方面的区别不大.
1435	Of course, when it comes to the end of the Qing dynasty, of course, it's that all the states have started to	当然,在清朝末年,当然,所有的州都已经开始了.
1436	make a fuss about local autonomy, and so on.	解决地方自治问题,等等。
1437	But the problem is that this is a fruit, not a cause,	但问题是,这是一个水果,不是原因,
1438	for the financial difficulties I'm talking about.	我说的是财政困难
1439	Because after you enter the financial	因为在你进入财务后
1440	difficulties, the authority of the central government and its power of force are lower than before.	困难,中央政府的权威及其武力力量比以前低.
1441	That's why there's a lot of local autonomy.	故地方自治甚多.
1442	It's because the local government can't get money from the central government.	因为当地政府不能从中央政府那里得到钱财.
1443	The local government needs to arrange for itself.	当地政府需要自行安排.
1444	In this case, they, of course,	在这种情况下,当然,他们
1445	say that to some extent, with the decentralization and localization of the financial system,	在某种程度上,随着金融系统的权力下放和地方化,
1446	the various kinds of administrative decentralization has also become more obvious.	各种行政权力下放也变得更加明显。
1447	And then the people who come at any time are politically localized.	然后随时前来的人在政治上是本地化的
1448	So that's why I think	所以我觉得
1449	your cause-and-effect relationship may be reversed.	您的因果关系可能会被逆转。
1450	It's not that these things have led to the	并不是这些事情导致了
1451	weakening of the Qing dynasty's finances.	削弱清朝财政.
1452	The weakening of the finances had already existed for a long time	财政的削弱已经存在了很长时间
1453	before the decentralization of the central government.	在中央政府下放权力之前
1454	It's that the weakening of the finances led to decentralization.	这是因为财政的削弱导致了权力下放.
1455	As for learning about the Western financial system, how do you say it?	至于学习西方金融系统,如何说?
1456	What is the main thing about the Western financial system?	西方金融系统的主要内容是什么?
1457	Their biggest innovation is that we rely less on some, that is, we rely less on agricultural taxes and more heavily on business taxes.	他们最大的创新是,我们较少依赖一些人,也就是说,我们较少依赖农业税,更依赖商业税。
1458	The Qing dynasty has learned this very well.	清朝对此非常了解.
1459	It's just that in the most successful places in the West,	只是,在西方最成功的地方,
1460	they will increase agricultural taxes at the same time as they promote business taxes.	他们将提高农业税,同时促进商业税。
1461	Because you need to build a new financial system to promote business taxes.	因为你需要建立一个新的金融系统来推广商业税.
1462	And the construction of this financial system requires cost.	而这种金融系统的建设需要成本.
1463	Where does this cost come from?	这笔费用从何而来?
1464	You can only get it from old taxes.	你只能从旧税中获得它。
1465	So every country that has successfully established a sustainable	因此,每一个成功建立可持续
1466	tax system needs to rely heavily on agricultural taxes to build this system.	税收制度需要严重依赖农业税来建立这一制度。
1467	The biggest problem with the Qing dynasty is that when it was building a business system,	清朝最大的问题是,在建商代时,
1468	the agricultural tax was not moving, and it was definitely insufficient.	农业税没有转移,这绝对是不够的。
1469	So the Qing dynasty's business system was built in a bad way.	于是清朝的商朝制度就以不好的方式建立起来.
1470	So although it has a business system, it has made a lot of money.	因此,虽然它有一个商业系统,但它赚了很多钱。
1471	But its operations and capabilities have not reached the highest level in terms of system.	但其业务和能力在系统方面尚未达到最高水平.
1472	Therefore, even if you want to learn the system of the West to build a business system,	因此,即使你想学习西方的体系来建立一个商业体系,
1473	you have to rely heavily on agricultural taxes to build a more successful business system.	需要大量依靠农业税来建立更成功的商业体系。
1474	And the biggest problem with the Qing dynasty is that when it was building a business system,	而清朝最大的问题在于,当清朝建立商业制度时,
1475	agricultural taxes were basically broken.	农业税基本上被打破。
1476	So it may not be very good at learning,	所以可能不太擅长学习
1477	but you don't necessarily have to look at the West to learn these things.	但你不必看西方才能学这些东西
1478	In Chinese history, there has not been a relatively successful business system.	中国历史上没有相对成功的商业体系.
1479	In the Song dynasty, it started from agricultural taxes to business taxes in the northern part of the Song dynasty.	宋朝时,从农业税开始到宋朝北部的商税.
1480	And in the northern part of the Song dynasty, the main tax of the country is actually business taxes.	而在宋朝的北方地区,国家的主要税收实际上是商业税.
1481	But the Song dynasty's business system is actually much more successful.	但宋朝的商朝制度实际上比较成功.
1482	It is more scientific and more effective.	它更科学、更有效。
1483	The reason is that when it was built, the country's overall tax based on agriculture was relatively strong.	原因是建成时,国家以农业为主的总税额比较强.
1484	Therefore, it has enough money to build a reasonably stable and rational business tax system.	因此,它有足够的资金来建立一个比较稳定合理的商业税制度。
1485	Unlike the Qing dynasty, which later established the Li Jin system, it is a little more complicated.	与后来建立李 Jin制度的清朝不同的是,这种制度比较复杂.
1486	I think that's all for now.	我想现在就这样
1487	Sorry if people are not understanding both English and Chinese.	如果人们不懂英语和中文,那就抱歉了.
1488	It's a little hard to do.	有点难做
1489	And then I think Kelly, do you have a question?	然后我想凯莉你有问题吗?
1490	Oh, yes.	对
1491	Hello, Professor Zhang.	张教授你好
1492	And thanks for the really, really inspiring talk.	感谢大家的激励
1493	And actually, I want to follow the next question to ask a question about like the different regional economic system, economic situation in the Qing dynasty.	而实际上,我想听下个问题来问一个问题,比如不同的地区经济体制,清朝的经济形势.
1494	When you talk about, for example, in the southern part of China, for example, the trade ports and some of the exchanges between China and Southeast Asia or the labor trade at that time.	以中国南部为例,谈贸易港口和中国与东南亚的一些交流或当时的劳务贸易时.
1495	Would that also help with the economic situation of the Qing dynasty?	这是否也有利于清朝的经济形势?
1496	Or it does not help that much?	还是没有那么多帮助?
1497	I'm a bit curious about that.	我有点好奇
1498	So if you're asking about like a cross-regional trade with Southeast Asia or something like that, there was quite a bit of that.	所以,如果你问到像一个跨区域贸易东南亚或类似的东西, 有相当一部分。
1499	So that was one of the one of the bases for which the Qing could still survive after 1850 for more than half a century.	所以那是清人1850年后仍能生存半个多世纪的根据地之一.
1500	Are largely on the basis of trying to raise commercial taxation.	主要是在试图提高商业税收的基础上。
1501	A huge part of commercial taxation is tariffs.	商业税的一大部分是关税。
1502	Because of the relatively large volume of foreign trade that the Qing had both with maritime powers and also with this kind of land-based border trade with Southeast Asia, the tariffs were quite significant in the late Qing.	由于清军既有海上势力,也有这种与东南亚的陆基边境贸易,对外贸易量相对较大,因此关税在清末相当显著.
1503	And that was perhaps the only relatively well-run parts of the Qing fiscal system in the late 19th century.	而这可能是19世纪后期清政府财政体制中唯一一个运行较为良好的部分.
1504	Now, again, the problem with that is that, well, yes, that stuff is important, but still you really shouldn't rely on foreign trade, which is at this point 10% of the economy to be the main pillar of your entire fiscal income.	现在,再次,问题在于,嗯,是的, 东西是重要的, 但是,你还是不应该依赖外贸, 也就是现在经济的10% 成为你整个财政收入的主要支柱。
1505	If you do that, then something's out of whack and it's likely not going to be that sustainable.	如果你这样做,那么的东西的疯了,它可能不会是那么可持续。
1506	So the Qing has all kinds of regional variations and commerce was robust across regions and so on and so forth.	故清人有各种区域变异,商 commerce横跨地区等地,商业蓬勃发展.
1507	So to some extent, that made this commercial tax-heavy strategy of the late Qing viable for a time.	因此在某种程度上,这使得晚清的这种商业税重策略在一段时间内是可行的.
1508	But in the end, the fundamentals of the economy are such that the share of agriculture in the economy is actually growing during this period from 70 to 80%.	但归根结底,经济的基本要素是,农业在这一时期在经济中所占的份额实际上正在从70%增长到80%.
1509	If you can't tax agriculture relatively effectively, nothing else that you do is going to matter much.	如果你不能相对有效地对农业征税, 你所做的其他事情就不重要了。
1510	Thank you very much.	谢谢
1511	All right.	好吧,我们走。
1512	Well, I think in the interest of time, we can stop there.	好吧,我想为了时间, 我们可以停下来。
1513	Thank you, everybody, so much for a good round of questions and for staying on.	谢谢你,大家,这么多的好回合的问题和留下来。
1514	Thank you, Professor Taixu Zhang for a fantastic presentation and for being so generous in answering all those questions.	谢谢你,张泰旭教授的精彩演讲和慷慨解囊地回答了所有这些问题
1515	And as per Yale Center Beijing tradition, I'm actually going to unmute everybody so you guys can all thank Professor Zhang yourself.	根据耶鲁中心北京的传统, 我将揭开每个人的怒火, 这样你们就可以亲自感谢张教授。
1516	And for those of you guys that are able to, please turn on your webcams.	对于你们这些有能力的人,请打开你的网络摄像头。
1517	We're going to do a group picture as best as we can here via webcam, so please.	我们将尽可能通过网络摄像头来拍一张合拍的照片
1518	Thank you, Professor.	谢谢你,教授
1519	Thank you, sir.	谢谢你,先生。
1520	Thank you, Professor.	谢谢你,教授
1521	Thank you.	谢谢
1522	Thank you, Professor.	谢谢你,教授
1523	Thank you.	谢谢
1524	Bye-bye.	再见

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