2022耶鲁中美峰会·创新科技发展论坛

2022耶鲁中美峰会·创新科技发展论坛

发布于 2022-05-08 · 时长 2:04:49

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:06	Welcome everyone.	欢迎大家
0:08	Good evening to everyone here in Yale Center Beijing,	晚上好,大家在耶鲁中心北京,
0:13	as well as in Asia.	还有亚洲
0:15	And good morning to everyone in the US,	早上好,美国每个人,
0:19	as well as in the Americas.	还有美洲
0:22	Welcome to the 2022 Yale US-China Distinguished Colloquium,	欢迎参加2022年耶鲁美中杰出学术讨论会
0:28	which is a collaboration between the Association	协会之间的合作
0:31	of Chinese Scholars and Students at Yale,	耶鲁的中国学者和学生
0:34	the Yale Club of Beijing,	北京耶鲁俱乐部,
0:37	the Yale School of Management, Greater China Love,	耶鲁大学管理学院 大中华爱

展开字幕全文（2158 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Welcome everyone.	欢迎大家
2	Good evening to everyone here in Yale Center Beijing,	晚上好,大家在耶鲁中心北京,
3	as well as in Asia.	还有亚洲
4	And good morning to everyone in the US,	早上好,美国每个人,
5	as well as in the Americas.	还有美洲
6	Welcome to the 2022 Yale US-China Distinguished Colloquium,	欢迎参加2022年耶鲁美中杰出学术讨论会
7	which is a collaboration between the Association	协会之间的合作
8	of Chinese Scholars and Students at Yale,	耶鲁的中国学者和学生
9	the Yale Club of Beijing,	北京耶鲁俱乐部,
10	the Yale School of Management, Greater China Love,	耶鲁大学管理学院 大中华爱
11	as well as the Yale Center Beijing.	以及耶鲁北京中心.
12	My name is Carolee Rafferty.	我叫卡罗莉・拉费蒂
13	I am a Yale College alumna,	我是耶鲁大学的校友
14	and also Executive Director of Yale Center Beijing,	并兼任耶鲁北京中心执行主任,
15	Yale University's only university-wide center	耶鲁大学唯一的大学中心
16	outside of the US.	在美国之外
17	And today, I can't be more happy	今天,我不能再高兴了
18	to be welcoming every one of you	来欢迎你们每一个人
19	to this very important event,	对于这个非常重要的事件,
20	which actually started 12 years ago in 2010	12年前开始于2010年
21	as the Yale US-China Forum,	作为耶鲁美中论坛,
22	which was a series of student-led conferences	这是一系列学生主导的会议
23	that convened thought leaders	召集思想领袖
24	to discuss cutting-edge issues facing China and the US.	讨论中国和美国面临的尖端问题。
25	And this remarkable effort is actually a culmination	而这一非凡的努力其实是一个顶峰
26	of Yale's two centuries-long history	耶鲁两个世纪的历史
27	of academic exchange with China,	与中国学术交流,
28	which started with Yong Weng, or Rong Hong,	始自龙文,或龙弘,
29	who went to Yale College back in 1850.	1850年他回到耶鲁学院
30	He was the first person to,	他是第一个
31	the first Chinese student to ever graduate	是第一个毕业的中国学生
32	from an American university.	美国大学的
33	Today, guess what, 170 years later,	今天,你猜怎么着,170年后,
34	there are more than a third, or 1,132 students	有超过三分之一,或1 132名学生
35	out of more than 3,000 students,	超过3000名学生中,
36	international students, on the Yale campus today.	国际学生,今天在耶鲁大学校园
37	So for today, this year's theme is	所以今天 今年的主题是
38	Revive, Rethink, and Relaunch.	振奋,再思考,再发射
39	And I can't be happier to be welcoming	我很高兴能欢迎你
40	a really stellar and diverse roster	一个非常有才华和多样的名册
41	of distinguished alumni, faculty, and friends speakers	著名校友、教职员工和朋友演讲者
42	who are going to talk about technology,	他们将谈论技术,
43	geopolitics, economics, and health.	地缘政治、经济学和健康。
44	Among the many distinguished speakers,	在众多著名发言者中,
45	I feel especially honored to welcome Siddharth Chatterjee,	我特别荣幸地欢迎西德哈斯·查特吉
46	the United Nations Resident Coordinator,	联合国驻地协调员,
47	who has prepared a special address for the occasion.	他为这个场合准备了一个特别演讲。
48	Perry Clase Lewis,全球战略副总裁,
49	Douglas Tracy Smith Professor of Comparative Literature	道格拉斯·特雷西·史密斯比较文学教授
50	and Professor of English at Yale University,	和耶鲁大学英语教授,
51	and Ted Snyder, former Dean and William S. Beinecke	泰德·斯奈德 前院长和威廉·S·贝内克
52	Professor of Economics and Management	经济学和管理学教授
53	at the Yale School of Management,	在耶鲁管理学院
54	who will deliver the opening remarks.	他们将致开幕词。
55	We'll have Jim Rogers-Lager, a Yale College alumnus	吉姆・罗杰斯・拉格是耶鲁大学的校友
56	and a legendary investor and co-founder of the Quantum Fund	也是量子基金的传奇投资者和共同创始人
57	to be our keynote speaker.	成为我们的主旨发言人。
58	还有Lynn Cooley 研究生院院长
59	of Arts and Sciences,	艺术和科学部
60	the C&H Wong Professor of Genetics,	C&H黄教授的遗传学,
61	and Vice Provost for Postdoctoral Affairs	博士后事务副教授
62	at Yale University will be giving the closing remarks.	耶鲁大学将作闭幕发言。
63	Up next, I'm going to pass the microphone to Helen Swan,	接下来 我要把麦克风传给海伦·斯旺
64	who is the President of the Yale Club of Beijing,	他是北京耶鲁俱乐部主席
65	and she will discuss more about the panels and the speakers.	她将进一步讨论各小组和发言者。
66	Thank you very much, and welcome again.	非常感谢,再次欢迎。
67	Thank you.	谢谢
68	Thank you, Carol.	谢谢你,卡罗尔。
69	Good evening and good morning, everyone.	大家晚上好,早上好,谢谢
70	I'm delighted to welcome everyone here and online.	我很高兴欢迎大家来到这里和在线。
71	First, I'd like to thank Yale Center Beijing,	首先,我想感谢耶鲁中心北京,
72	Association of Chinese Students and Scholars at Yale,	耶鲁的中国学生学者协会,
73	和耶鲁SOM Great China Club联合主办这次活动.
74	During my preparation for the event,	在我筹备这个活动期间
75	many people asked me,	很多人问我,
76	why do we want to host a Yale US-China Summit	我们为什么要主办耶鲁美中峰会?
77	at such a challenging time?	在如此艰难的时刻?
78	I think the timing is indeed important.	我认为时机确实很重要。
79	Never before has such a meeting	从来没有这样的会议
80	been more relevant than today,	比今天更有意义
81	because in a time of confusion between the two countries	因为在两国混淆的时期
82	and our two peoples,	和我们两个民族,
83	and amidst rising professionalism and populism,	在敬业精神和民粹主义不断提高之际,
84	it's very important to promote openness and dialogue,	这对促进开放和对话非常重要,
85	through which we enforce mutual understanding	藉此实现相互理解
86	and bilateral collaborations.	和双边合作。
87	There are three things we should think about	有三件事我们要考虑
88	at such a challenging time.	在如此艰难的时刻
89	First, how do companies react	第一,公司的反应
90	to different emerging technologies,	不同新兴技术,
91	such as AI, digital transformation, blockchain, et cetera,	例如AI、数字转换、区块链等等。
92	and how do they revive their missions and applications	以及他们如何恢复使命和应用
93	during the technological disruption?	在技术中断期间?
94	Then, how should business leaders rethink their strategies	那么,企业领导人应该如何重新考虑他们的策略
95	and how do they promote global innovation?	如何促进全球创新?
96	How do we promote economic growth and social benefits for all?	我们如何促进经济增长和惠及所有人的社会福利?
97	Last, but not the least,	最后,但并非最不重要的是,
98	the world has changed dramatically	世界发生了巨大的变化
99	because of COVID, the open world, climate crisis, and so on.	因为COVID,开放的世界,气候危机等等.
100	We are in a totally different world today.	我们今天所处的世界完全不同。
101	And these circumstances,	而这些情况,
102	how can US and China work best together	美国和中国如何最好地合作
103	to produce the prospect of a post-COVID world order	创造后COVID世界秩序的前景
104	based on mutual trust and collaborations?	建立在相互信任和协作的基础上?
105	If you are interested in these questions,	如果你对这些问题感兴趣,
106	let's embark on the discussion journey	我们开始讨论吧
107	with our distinguished speakers.	与我们的杰出演讲者。
108	And I'd like to thank all the speakers	我想感谢所有发言者
109	for the generous sharing of their insights.	他们将慷慨地分享他们的见解。
110	I'd also like to thank the audience for participation	我也感谢观众的参与
111	and the pre-collected questions.	和预先收集的问题。
112	It's our hope that after this summit,	我们希望这次首脑会议之后
113	you can put what you learn to use,	你可以把学习用的东西,
114	making your business more successful,	让你的生意更成功,
115	or helping make the world a better place.	或者帮助让世界变得更美好
116	Thank you.	谢谢
117	Now, let's get started our journey.	现在,让我们开始我们的旅程。
118	First, let's welcome Seth to his greetings.	首先,让我们欢迎赛斯的问候。
119	Greetings.	哈罗。
120	My name is Siddharth Chatterjee,	我叫西达斯·查特吉
121	the United Nations Residence Coordinator in China.	联合国中国居留事务协调员。
122	I want to thank the Yale Club of Beijing,	我想感谢耶鲁北京俱乐部
123	the Yale Center Beijing,	北京耶鲁中心
124	the Association of Chinese Students and Scholars at Yale,	在耶鲁的中国学生学者协会,
125	and the Yale School of Management Greater China Club	大中国俱乐部
126	for the invitation to address the 2022	2022年9月26日,日内瓦
127	Yale-US-China Distinguished Colloquium.	耶鲁-美国-中国杰出学术讨论会.
128	The Greater Yale community,	大耶鲁社区,
129	both in China and in the United States of America,	在中国和美利坚合众国,
130	are members of one of the most prestigious institutions	属于最有声望的机构之一
131	of higher education in the world.	世界高等教育。
132	Academia is an important sector of society	学术界是社会的一个重要部门
133	that the United Nations and China works with	联合国与中国合作
134	towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals,	实现可持续发展目标,
135	our blueprint to achieve a better	我们的蓝图 实现更好的
136	and more sustainable future for all.	并为所有人带来更可持续的未来。
137	Addressing challenges that threaten global progress	应对威胁全球进步的挑战
138	on the Sustainable Development Goals,	可持续发展目标,
139	including the COVID-19 pandemic,	包括COVID-19大流行病,
140	the climate crisis, conflicts, and inequalities,	气候危机、冲突和不平等现象,
141	requires collaboration from all stakeholders	需要所有利益攸关方的合作
142	and the entire community of nations,	和整个国际社会,
143	including the United States.	包括美国。
144	As key member states of the United Nations system,	作为联合国系统的主要会员国,
145	the family, China and the US have an important role	家庭、中国和美国可发挥重要作用
146	in upholding the values of peace and security,	维护和平与安全的价值,
147	development, human rights,	发展、人权、
148	by following the principles of the United Nations Charter	遵循《联合国宪章》的原则
149	and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights	和《世界人权宣言》
150	while implementing the 2030 Agenda	执行2030年议程
151	for Sustainable Development.	可持续发展
152	The United Nations and China has embarked	联合国和中国已开始
153	on a new cycle of cooperation with the government of China	与中国政府合作的新周期
154	in the United Nations Sustainable Development	联合国可持续发展
155	Cooperation Framework for 2021 to 2025.	2021年至2025年合作框架。
156	This cooperation framework will help China	这一合作框架将有助于中国。
157	respond to new opportunities and challenges	迎接新的机遇和挑战
158	presented in the three key priority areas,	三个主要优先领域,
159	namely people and prosperity,	即人类与繁荣,
160	second, planet, and third, partnerships.	第二,地球,第三,伙伴关系。
161	Through the implementation period	在整个执行期间
162	of the cooperation framework,	合作框架,
163	my highest priority is for the United Nations and China	我最优先考虑的是联合国和中国
164	to support sharing of China's experiences,	支持分享中国的经验,
165	expertise, and resources,	专门知识和资源,
166	and bring to bear these lessons	并带来这些教训
167	for the benefit of the developing world,	为发展中国家造福,
168	especially Africa, while ensuring alignment	特别是非洲,同时确保协调一致
169	to all relevant international norms and standards.	遵守所有相关国际规范和标准。
170	Ladies and gentlemen,	女士们,先生们,
171	we live in a turbulent global landscape	我们生活在动荡的全球环境中
172	with the world now experiencing the highest number	世界上目前人数最多
173	of violent conflicts	暴力冲突
174	since the end of the Second World War in 1945.	自1945年第二次世界大战结束以来。
175	The 2030 Agenda reminds us	《2030年议程》提醒我们
176	there is no peace without sustainable development	没有可持续发展,就没有和平
177	and no sustainable development without peace and justice,	以及没有和平与正义就无法实现可持续发展,
178	or without respect for human rights.	或不尊重人权。
179	In this context, the Sino-U.S. relationship	在这方面,中美关系
180	is perhaps the most consequential bilateral relationship	也许是最重要的双边关系
181	in the 21st century.	在21世纪。
182	My boss, the United Nations Secretary General,	我的老板,联合国秘书长,
183	Mr. Antonio Guterres has said, and I quote,	安东尼奥·古特雷斯先生说过,我引用
184	it is essential to address the problems of vaccination,	必须解决疫苗接种问题,
185	the problems of climate change,	气候变化问题,
186	and the many other global challenges	和许多其他全球挑战
187	that cannot be solved without constructive relations.	没有建设性关系就无法解决。
188	End of quote.	引文结束.
189	Achieving the sustainable development goals	实现可持续发展目标
190	in the remaining years of this decade of action	行动十年余下几年
191	requires an all-of-society approach	需要采取全社会办法
192	and renewed efforts from the private sector, academia,	私营部门、学术界、
193	young people on both sides.	双方的年轻人。
194	Young people are entering the workforce	年轻人正在进入劳动力队伍
195	should consider how they can work	应该考虑他们如何工作
196	to address these interconnected challenges	应对这些相互关联的挑战
197	by engaging in an evolved	通过参与进化
198	and inclusive multilateral approach.	和包容性多边办法。
199	Just as youth engagement is critical	正如青年的参与至关重要
200	to achieving the 2030 agenda,	实现2030年议程,
201	actions to be taken by the young generation	青年一代应采取的行动
202	will also be key to the future of Sino-U.S. relations.	也是中美关系未来的关键
203	With the full normalization of diplomatic relations	随着外交关系的全面正常化
204	came the state visit of the former leader,	前领导人的国事访问,
205	Deng Xiaoping, to the United States of America,	邓小平致美利坚合众国,
206	with the then President Jimmy Carter in early 1979	1979年初和时任总统吉米·卡特
207	opening the door to scientific, technological,	打开科学、技术、
208	cultural, and educational exchanges.	文化和教育交流。
209	A new generation of students and scholars	新一代的学生和学者
210	began studies in one another's countries,	开始在彼此国家学习,
211	exchanges that continue to this day	持续至今的交流
212	to build trust, learn from each other,	要建立信任,互相学习,
213	enhance friendships, and promote mutual understanding	增进友谊,促进相互了解
214	between the people of China and the United States of America.	中美两国人民之间.
215	In this spirit, as part of a Chinese delegation in 1985,	本着这种精神,作为1985年中国代表团的一部分.
216	a young Chinese official visited Muscatine, Iowa State	一位年轻的中国官员访问了爱荷华州马斯喀丁
217	to study U.S. agriculture,	研究美国农业,
218	staying in the home of an American family,	住在一个美国家庭的家中,
219	creating lasting impression upon him	他将受永久的印象,
220	and in his view of the two countries.	在他看来
221	Reuniting, 28 years later,	28年之后,重新团结
222	President Xi Jinping visited this family	习近平主席来这家
223	and explained his return by saying,	并解释他的归来,他说:
224	and I quote, to me, you are America, end of quote.	我引用,对我来说,你是美国, 引用的结尾。
225	To the young people in the room,	给房间里的年轻人
226	you too are an important bridge between these two powers,	你也是这两个力量之间的重要桥梁,
227	and I urge you to continue directing your efforts	我敦促你继续指导你的努力
228	towards a more peaceful, sustainable future.	走向一个更加和平、可持续的未来。
229	I once again express my regards to the Yale community	我再次向耶鲁社区致以敬意
230	and wish you all a very, very successful event.	并祝你们成功。
231	Thank you very much.	谢谢
232	It's my honor to introduce our six distinguished speakers.	○引见己丑科散馆人员.
233	First, Sai Yishan, Managing Director	第一,西义山,总经理
234	and Head of China Harbor West Partners.	和中国港西合作伙伴负责人.
235	Darye Tsai,创始人和管理合伙人,
236	Server for Houseware Partners.	家用软件伙伴服务器.
237	Hello, everyone.	大家好,你们好
238	And Sean Huang, CEO of Taikang Investment.	还有大康投资公司的CEO黄尚恩.
239	Tao Niu,Cinnovation Ventures总裁兼合伙人.
240	Hello, everyone.	大家好,你们好
241	Also, online, we have Shirley Yang,	还有,网上有杨雪莉
242	Founder and Managing Partner, Dragon Rice Capital.	龙稻资本公司创始人兼总经理合伙人.
243	Our panel moderator, Martin Ma,	我们的小组主持人 马马丁
244	Founder and the CEO of Happy Universe.	快乐宇宙的创始人和首席执行官.
245	We actually have a very different people	我们实际上有一个非常不同的人
246	from online and offline,	从在线和线下,
247	so it's a very interesting session	所以这是一个非常有趣的会议
248	from different continents at a very different time,	来自不同的大陆,在不同的时间,
249	even from one month ago,	甚至一个月前
250	to talk about China and the US and the globalization.	谈论中国、美国和全球化
251	So I think it's, we heard a lot from Jim Rogers	所以,我想这是,我们听到 很多从吉姆罗杰斯
252	on his view on globalization,	关于他对全球化的看法,
253	so I hope we can get more from our speakers	我希望我们能从我们的演讲者那里得到更多
254	and panelists tonight as well.	今晚还有小组成员
255	So I have a few questions from our audience and myself,	因此,我有一些问题 从我们的听众和我自己,
256	so maybe I will just start from some questions	所以也许我应该先问几个问题
257	for all the panels to start.	所有面板开始。
258	What's your view on the post,	你对这篇文章的看法如何?
259	if we have a post-COVID situation in the world,	如果我们有后COVID的情况 在世界上,
260	economically and socially?	经济与社会?
261	I think we should start from Shirley.	我想我们应该从雪莉开始
262	Maybe we should start from Shirley.	也许我们应该从雪莉开始
263	Shirley is in Shanghai.	谢莉在上海.
264	Yeah.	对
265	Okay, thank you for inviting me,	好的 谢谢你邀请我
266	and to answer your first question,	为了回答你的第一个问题
267	I would say, at the best, it is quite challenging.	我想说,充其量,这相当具有挑战性。
268	Still, in terms of the prospect,	然而,就前景而言,
269	the post-COVID clinical and economic situation,	COVID之后的临床和经济情况,
270	and especially sitting where I am,	特别是坐在我的位置上,
271	and which is precisely the reason	而这正是原因
272	that prevents me from going to Beijing	那让我无法去北京
273	to join the party meet with all of you guys.	来参加派对 与大家见面。
274	I'd love to see you in person.	我很想亲自见你
275	I think at personal level,	我想从个人角度来说
276	I remain gorgeously optimistic for the long run,	从长远来看,我依然非常乐观
277	which is quite cliche for a long-term investor like myself,	这对像我这样的长期投资者来说很陈词滥调,
278	but I think that fits the situation quite well.	但我觉得这很合适
279	I think in China in particular,	我想在中国尤其如此,
280	I think since most of the panelists today	我想自从今天大部分的小组成员以来
281	are in the investment industry,	在投资行业,
282	I would say a lot to look for,	我会说很多寻找,
283	but a lot more to challenging us.	但还有更多的挑战我们。
284	I think I will leave it there for now,	我想我会把它暂时留在那里,
285	and give the other distinguished panelists	并赏赐其他尊贵的小组成员,
286	an opportunity to expand on the same topic.	有机会就同一专题展开讨论。
287	好的 谢谢你 Shirley
288	Maybe we should start from Sha.	也许我们应该从沙开始
289	Do you want to continue?	你想继续吗?
290	Okay.	摆
291	Thank you for having me today here.	谢谢你今天让我来
292	So I think the COVID definitely has a lot of pressure	所以,我觉得COVID肯定有很多压力
293	on the economy.	经济。
294	We know the economy is driven by three factors,	我们知道经济是由三个因素驱动的,
295	investment, demand, and export.	投资、需求和出口。
296	Investment, I think definitely the government spending	投资,我想肯定 政府支出
297	has been constrained by their activities	受其活动限制
298	to control the pandemic.	以控制这种流行病。
299	So the lack of resources or lack of leverage,	因此,缺乏资源或杠杆,
300	and also the private investment appetite	以及私人投资的胃口
301	and confidence also constrained.	信心也受到限制。
302	And we do a lot of investments across different sectors.	我们在不同部门进行大量投资。
303	I go and see the consumption also slow down.	我去看看消耗也减慢了。
304	We have seen recently the investment in consumer sector	我们最近看到消费者部门的投资
305	also be slowing down.	也正在减速。
306	So I think in the middle term or in the short term,	所以我认为在中期或短期,
307	definitely the economy is under pressure,	经济肯定有压力,
308	but we think the government will take some actions	但我们认为政府会采取一些行动
309	to stimulate the economy.	刺激经济。
310	But on the positive side,	但积极的一面,
311	I think there's also some good news.	我想还有好消息
312	例如,在COVID情况下的COVID.
313	in the past two or three years,	过去两三年,
314	digitalization is a good trend.	数字化是一个很好的趋势。
315	People always say like in the past two or three years,	人们总是说 像在过去的两三年,
316	the digital economy or digital in our sector,	数字经济或我们部门的数字经济,
317	like healthcare, detailed healthcare,	像保健,详细的保健,
318	is starting to grow very quickly.	成长得很快
319	We have seen the opportunities that people are very used to	我们看到人们非常习惯的机会
320	doing business or communicate online.	在网上做生意或交流。
321	So another perspective is for the healthcare technology,	另一种观点是医疗技术
322	like Daqin and I, we're both working in that area.	像达琴和我一样 我们都在那边工作
323	Like there are a lot of creativity	好像有很多创造力
324	and the breakthrough in the healthcare technology,	以及保健技术的突破,
325	for example, the MRI, right?	比如核磁共振 对吧?
326	And also a lot of activities in the RAD area.	以及许多RAD地区的活动.
327	So yeah, no one knows when the pandemic will be end,	所以,没有人知道什么时候 流行病会结束,
328	but we'll see people and also the company	但我们会看到人和公司
329	are getting used to that and how to face that challenging.	已经习惯了 如何面对挑战
330	I'm cautiously positive in the middle term,	我谨慎地肯定在中期,
331	but in the short term, definitely there's some challenges.	但在短期内,肯定有一些挑战。
332	Sorry, thank you.	对不起,谢谢。
333	Yeah, so I think, yeah, I agree with Sean.	是的,所以我认为,是的,我同意肖恩。
334	I think the pandemic changed the world in many ways	我觉得大流行在很多方面改变了世界
335	and probably differently in different society.	在不同的社会里可能不一样
336	On the digital economy side, I think it's global impact	在数字经济方面,我认为是全球影响
337	in how goods and services move around	商品和服务如何流动
338	and how we work and how we live	我们如何工作,如何生活
339	has been fundamentally changed.	已经发生了根本的变化。
340	So after that, maybe the physical offices	所以之后,也许物理办公室
341	is on the trend to no longer be as important as before,	现在的趋势是不再像以前那么重要
342	which is already happening in the U.S. at least.	这至少已经发生在美国。
343	And there are many ways that the new technologies	新技术有很多方法
344	could accelerate implementation,	能够加速执行,
345	such as in the quarantine areas,	例如,在隔离区,
346	they're already using driverless vans to deliver goods.	他们已经用无驾驶的面包车送货了
347	When I was in quarantine hotel,	我在隔离酒店的时候
348	once the robotic service little tools came to send me	一旦机器人服务小工具来送我
349	my Starbucks, which was quite interesting experience.	我的星巴克,这是相当有趣的经历。
350	So I think that did accelerate	所以我认为这确实加速了
351	how technology is used in our daily life.	我们的日常生活是如何利用技术的。
352	Socially, I think the impact could be deeper.	社会上,我觉得影响可能更深.
353	For example, I think in the U.S.	例如,我想在美国。
354	we hear about the great resignation.	我们听说伟大的辞职。
355	Interestingly, a lot of people after the pandemic	有趣的是,大流行后很多人
356	decide they don't want to work.	决定他们不想工作。
357	They don't want to pursue success or money.	他们不想追求成功或金钱.
358	The old goals they set up,	他们设定的旧目标,
359	they think maybe being healthy, still live	他们认为也许健康,仍然活着
360	and enjoy the moment is more important.	享受这个时刻更重要
361	While here we may experience a severe unemployment	在这里,我们可能会面临严重的失业
362	at least during the pandemic	至少在流行期间
363	and may take time to recover	可能需要时间才能恢复
364	given the supply chain disruption,	鉴于供应链中断,
365	the inability to travel.	无法旅行。
366	So it may take different forms.	因此,它可能采取不同的形式。
367	I think on personal level,	我个人认为,
368	mental health issue could have a long and deep impact.	心理健康问题可能产生长期和深远的影响。
369	And I think that's something also we should be aware.	我觉得我们也应该知道这一点。
370	And for children as well,	对于孩子们来说
371	for a few years without physical learning,	几年没有体力学习,
372	which I believe is critical for youth,	我认为这对年轻人至关重要,
373	how do we recover and get them back on track?	我们如何恢复和让他们回到轨道上?
374	And I hope there are more attention around	我希望周围有更多的关注
375	emotional health and how to get people back on track,	情绪健康和如何让人们重新走上正轨,
376	to live a normal life,	过正常的生活,
377	to get used to interacting with people the normal way.	习惯与人互动 正常的方式。
378	So something we don't have control,	所以,我们没有控制,
379	we don't know when this all will end.	我们不知道这一切何时会结束
380	But I think understanding this could happen is important	但我认为理解这件事很重要
381	and adjusting our own assumption is important	调整我们的假设很重要
382	so that we could slowly go back	这样我们才能慢慢回去
383	to a new kind of normal for all of us.	给大家带来一种新常态
384	Thank you.	谢谢
385	I totally agree with my other friends	我完全同意我其他朋友的意见
386	in their summary that to some degree,	在总结中,在某种程度上,
387	we need to be cautiously optimistic.	我们需要谨慎乐观。
388	I cannot speak for the macroeconomic situation in China	我不能代表中国的宏观经济状况
389	because there are so many uncertainties that's beyond.	因为有这么多的不确定性是超越。
390	Market economy, people who understand what I'm saying,	市场经济 那些明白我意思的人
391	you know what I'm saying, okay?	你知道我在说什么,好吗?
392	And for my specific sector,	对于我的特定部门,
393	because Sally and I, Shirley and I,	因为莎莉和我,雪莉和我,
394	last time we had a lot of fun	上次我们玩得很开心
395	in one of the roundtables like this,	在这样的一个圆桌会议上,
396	we were touching on some very interesting topics.	我们谈论了一些非常有趣的话题。
397	And unfortunately, some of the topics became a reality now.	不幸的是,有些议题现在变成了现实。
398	For, I'm a specialist,	因为我是专家
399	a student of the healthcare investment field.	健康投资领域的学生。
400	Our field is a little bit different	我们的田地有点不一样
401	than the other sectors in the economy.	而不是其他经济部门。
402	We could see, post-epidemic,	我们可以看到,后流行,
403	we could see some immediate rebound in this sub-sector.	我们可以看到这个分部门立即出现反弹。
404	This is because people already realized	这是因为人们已经意识到
405	in the lockdown situation,	在封锁的情况下,
406	many people need to go to hospitals.	很多人需要去医院。
407	In China, each year, four million people will get cancers,	中国每年有四百万人患癌症
408	different types of cancers,	不同类型的癌症,
409	some urgent, more urgent, urgent, some less urgent.	一些紧急,一些紧急,一些不太紧急。
410	But each month, you have about 350,000 people getting cancers.	但每个月,你都有大约35万人患癌症。
411	These people, they won't postpone their process	这些人,他们不会推迟他们的工作
412	or their cancer progress because of epidemic.	或因流行而患癌症。
413	Whoever gets cancer only get delayed	得了癌症的人只会迟到
414	in diagnosis, in treatment.	在诊断,治疗。
415	Once the lockdown and the semi-lockdown situation	一旦封锁和半封锁的情况
416	in major cities get eased,	在大城市里,
417	these people need to go to hospitals urgently, okay?	这些人需要马上去医院,好吗?
418	It's a huge burden on society and people,	这是一个巨大的负担 社会和人民,
419	many people just don't realize it, okay?	很多人只是不知道,好吗?
420	There are many other diseases besides COVID-19, okay?	除了COVID-19,还有其他许多疾病,好吗?
421	If you postpone cancer diagnosis for three months,	如果你把癌症诊断推迟三个月
422	the consequences for many of these patients	对许多这些病人的后果
423	can be quite severe.	可能会很严重
424	We felt that, and if in a freer market,	我们感觉到了,如果在一个更自由的市场,
425	you could see some immediate rebound in this sub-sector.	你可以看到这个小区立即出现反弹
426	Unfortunately, some of my colleagues in this sector	不幸的是,我在这个部门的一些同事
427	also profited quite handsomely in this epidemic.	在这场疫情中也获得了相当丰厚的利润.
428	Even some of our portfolio companies	甚至我们的一些证券公司
429	get pretty well rewarded by their previous effort	得到相当好的奖励 他们之前的努力
430	in technology investments, in their innovation	技术投资及其创新
431	in certain disease treatment.	在某些疾病治疗中。
432	So that's the special situation for the healthcare sector.	这就是医疗部门的特殊情况。
433	We don't like it, but we have to deal with the situation	我们不喜欢,但是我们得面对局面
434	because many of our companies produce	因为我们的许多公司生产
435	these diagnostic testing kits	这些诊断检测包
436	or the raw materials producing these IVT testing kits.	或生产这些IVT测试包的原材料。
437	And post the epidemic, these will drop,	并发布疫情, 这些会下降,
438	but the vaccine industry, and especially as Sean said,	但疫苗行业,尤其是如肖恩所说,
439	the mRNA sub-sub-sector will experience	mRNA子部门将经历
440	quite significant growth even post epidemic.	即使在疫情发生后,增长也相当显著。
441	But for other less urgent areas in healthcare,	但对于其他不太紧迫的医疗领域,
442	the rebound could be, there are some uncertainties there too.	反弹可能存在一些不确定性。
443	You know, in China, the regulatory environment	你知道,在中国,监管环境
444	is changing almost weekly, and we have to wait and see.	几乎每周都变了,我们得等着瞧
445	The healthcare industry is a heavily regulated sector.	保健行业是一个受到严格管制的部门。
446	Thank you.	谢谢
447	As innovation ventures is a tech VC	由于创新事业是技术产业
448	that will invest into the early stage	投资到早期
449	我们注意到 COVID-19
450	or the past two years impact to the tech startups,	或过去两年对技术创业的影响,
451	I think I want to talk about some positive	我想谈谈一些积极的
452	or good news impact.	或好消息影响。
453	As the three speakers said,	如三位发言者所说,
454	the digitalization penetration is faster.	数字化渗透速度更快。
455	Some people said that it saved about 10 years.	有人说,它节省了大约10年。
456	So it's a good news for the startups	这对创业者来说是个好消息
457	because when we invest into them,	因为我们投资的时候,
458	the biggest challenge for them is to find the customers.	他们最大的挑战就是找到顾客
459	A lot of customers, especially the corporation,	很多客户,尤其是公司
460	they're very hesitant to invest into the high tech.	他们对投资高科技很犹豫
461	But now, during the two years,	但现在,在这两年里,
462	they know that and they realize that they need the high tech.	他们知道,他们意识到 他们需要高科技。
463	Like Sandy said, the robots in the Quentin Hotel,	就像桑迪说的 昆汀酒店的机器人
464	in the past, only a very few hotel	过去只有几家酒店
465	just bought a few of them as a demonstration.	刚刚买了几个作为示范
466	They feel that their hotel is high tech.	他们觉得他们的酒店是高科技的
467	But now, the robots have the real function.	但是现在,机器人有真正的功能。
468	So it's a very good news	所以这是一个非常好的消息
469	for the startups of the technical.	技术的启动。
470	So I want to talk about this.	所以我想谈谈这个
471	Not only the, besides the challenge,	不仅是,除了挑战之外,
472	it also have the good news.	也有一个好消息。
473	Thank you.	谢谢
474	I think we all start from the harsh reality we're facing.	我想我们都从我们面对的严酷现实出发
475	So which I think is probably the most difficult	所以,我认为这可能是最困难的
476	panel discussion we had in the center in the past few years	在过去几年里我们在中心举行的小组讨论
477	because everyone talk about some downside and upside.	因为每个人都在谈论一些负面和颠倒。
478	But this time seems we have more downside.	但这次看来我们有更多的缺点。
479	But still, we are in the tech and innovation industry.	但是,我们仍然在科技和创新行业。
480	So suppose we should give people some hope.	所以假设我们应该给人们一些希望。
481	So I think the next question I want to ask each panelist	所以,我想下一个问题 我想问每个小组成员
482	to talk about is, what's your view about tech	你对科技的看法是什么?
483	and innovation in China and globally?	中国和全球的创新?
484	What are the trends and what are the area of interest?	有哪些趋势和感兴趣的领域?
485	You want to look more deeply	你想更深一点看
486	and maybe people here can get some insight from you guys.	也许这里的人可以从你们那里得到一些洞察力
487	The tech and innovation trend.	科技创新趋势.
488	So let's start with Shirley again, okay?	我们从雪莉开始,好吗?
489	Since you haven't talked too much in the past questions.	既然你以前没说太多话
490	I wanted to give my friends more opportunity to talk.	我想给我的朋友更多的机会谈谈。
491	And I think that was a great question at any point of time.	我认为这在任何时间都是个好问题。
492	I think as Sarah and I were chatting a little bit	我想作为莎拉和我聊天
493	in the past week in terms of how we can better handle	上周,我们如何更好地处理
494	some potential tough questions,	一些潜在的难题,
495	knowing it's a tough time we're going through here.	知道这是艰难的时刻 我们要经过这里。
496	And one of the things that she said and inspired me was,	她所说的其中一件事启发了我:
497	both she and I, although I'm still older than she is.	她和我 虽然我还是比她大
498	We consider ourselves old timers	我们自认为是老时光
499	who have survived quite a few economic cycles,	他们经历了几个经济周期
500	both in the US, in Hong Kong and in China.	在美国,香港和中国都有
501	So all the investment opportunities and trends,	所以所有的投资机会和趋势
502	just like risk and rewards, they have to be analyzed	就像风险和回报一样,必须分析它们
503	and looked at in cycles.	并在循环中观察。
504	There's no black and white say,	没有黑人和白人说,
505	it's going to be great tomorrow or great next year	明年会很棒
506	and it's going to be terrible the year after.	接下来的一年会很糟
507	No one can tell you that.	没有人可以告诉你。
508	There's so much unexpected events,	有这么多意外事件
509	so much disruptions in our forecast,	我们的预测中 发生了这么多的中断
510	not only from politicians but also from economists,	不仅来自政治家 也来自经济学家
511	not to mention us as more micro practitioners as investors.	更不用提我们像投资者一样多的 微型从业者
512	So I will couch that by saying that	所以我会说
513	I would think that there's no one	我想没有人
514	can start the innovation trend globally.	能够在全球启动创新趋势。
515	Anything that's going to disrupt this process,	任何破坏这个过程的东西
516	disrupt human beings or humankind's ability to innovate,	破坏人类或人类创新的能力,
517	ability to think beyond or outside the box	是否有能力在盒子之外思考
518	and to create a better future,	为了创造一个更美好的未来,
519	to create better medicine, better tech,	创造更好的医药,更好的技术,
520	better life for themselves.	过上更好的生活
521	I think that in the longer run,	我觉得从长远来看
522	I think I have a lot of conviction in that.	我觉得我对此很有信心
523	But then also, back to where we are,	但是,同样,回到我们的位置,
524	as micro investors, because we do,	作为微型投资者,因为我们这样做,
525	so Dajin and Sean said,	所以达真和肖恩说,
526	they are specialists in healthcare sectors	他们是卫生部门的专家
527	and I'm more a tech generalist	而我更是一个技术通论家
528	and for those who did not listen to our last panel,	以及那些不听我们最后一组话的人,
529	as Dajin said, we had so much fun	如大真所说,我们玩得很开心
530	but we ended on a more positive note.	但是,我们结束了 一个更积极的方面。
531	I think this one seems to be a lot more sober.	我觉得这个看起来更清醒了
532	I think in the near term, we have to be very realistic	我认为在近期,我们必须非常现实
533	about how to manage the risk for ourselves,	关于如何管理我们自己的风险,
534	for the investors, for the LPs,	为投资者,为LP,
535	and for the corporates or even just your individual bosses	公司甚至你个人的老板
536	you're working for.	你为我工作
537	And that falls on the individual industries.	而这取决于各个行业。
538	As Talin pointed out, for certain early stage techs,	正如塔林指出的 对于某些早期技术
539	like robotics and even some digital products	像机器人,甚至一些数字产品
540	or AI products, the market adoption can be hard to combine	或AI产品,市场采用可能很难结合
541	but during the last few years,	但是在过去几年里,
542	in fact, there has been accelerated acceptance	事实上,已经加速接受
543	of the products and the services,	产品和服务,
544	which happen to be helping some of the entrepreneurs	帮助了一些企业家
545	but then I want to say though,	但我想说
546	that's very filling in between in terms of opportunities.	这在机会方面是非常充沛的
547	Majority of the market and the economy is suffering	大部分市场和经济正在遭受痛苦
548	so since the topic of today's panel is revive	所以,既然今天的小组 的主题正在恢复
549	and what's the other one?	另一个是什么?
550	Relive.	重现生机.
551	I think the revival of the economy,	我认为经济的复苏,
552	I think near to the term can be challenging for us	我认为接近这个期限会给我们带来挑战
553	who are investing in this market	在市场上投资的人
554	but as I said, longer term,	但正如我所说,长期而言,
555	I never underestimate we as the Chinese people,	我从未低估我们是中国人民
556	our ingenuity and our hard working	我们的智慧和辛勤工作
557	and our ability to create.	以及我们创造的能力
558	I want to give the floor to the other friends.	我想请其他朋友发言。
559	Thank you.	谢谢
560	Thank you Sherry.	谢谢雪莉
561	Maybe Tony can talk about Zing.	也许 东尼可以谈丁.
562	I think it's during this period,	我想是在这段时间里
563	especially for the Chinese government's policies	特别是中国政府的政策
564	implementation to the hardcore technology	执行核心技术
565	you can see that it's a good news for the startups	你可以看到,这是一个好消息 对于初创企业
566	if they focus on the technology side	如果他们专注于技术方面
567	and when we look at the new trend,	当我们看着新的趋势,
568	when we focus on the three industries,	当我们专注于三个行业,
569	one is we call this AI implication	我们称之为AI暗示
570	or application to the different sectors	或适用于不同部门
571	like AI in manufacturing, AI in agriculture	例如制造业的AI和农业的AI
572	or AI in the airspace.	空气空间中的AI。
573	This is one big sector	这是一个大部门
574	and another one is the healthcare	另一个是医疗
575	but I leave the healthcare sector to these two speakers	但我把医疗部门留给这两位发言人
576	because we are the new investor in this area.	因为我们是这个领域的新投资者。
577	The third one is the application to the enterprise	第三个是申请企业
578	and this is a traditional technology investment sector	这是一个传统的技术投资部门
579	but there is to pass the two years	但有 过两年
580	more and more enterprise including the government	越来越多的企业,包括政府
581	have the strong intention to use the digital platform	具有使用数字平台的强烈意图
582	whatever on their supply or purchase	无论他们供应或购买什么
583	or to improve their productivities.	或改善其产物。
584	Yeah, thank you.	谢谢
585	Those areas has been very hot in a few years.	这些地区几年来非常热。
586	But in the past two years	但是在过去两年里
587	the variation becomes a little realistic.	变化变得有点现实
588	Okay, yeah.	好吧,没错。
589	So any other comments from Sally, from Michelle,	莎莉和蜜雪儿的其他评论
590	from Tara on this topic?	塔拉关于这个话题?
591	So maybe some more on the positive note.	所以也许更多关于积极的方面。
592	I was a technology banker for 15, 16 years in the US	我在美国当了15,16年的科技银行家
593	and in Asia before becoming a LP investing venture	在亚洲,在成为LP投资企业之前
594	firm in China.	公司在中国。
595	So I have seen some cycles and changes	所以我看到了一些循环和变化
596	and technology and innovation has been a key enabler	技术与创新是关键推动因素
597	for Western economy, Western countries to grow	西方经济,西方国家增长
598	and it clearly has played a major role in China.	它显然在中国发挥了重要作用。
599	I think the decoupling or de-globalization	我认为脱钩或去全球化
600	in a way actually helped push China to really start	帮助中国真正开始
601	its stage of true innovation	其真正的创新阶段
602	and true technological advancement	和真正的技术进步
603	as compared to the past decades we are probably using	与过去几十年相比,我们可能正在使用
604	leveraging the globally available technology	利用全球现有技术
605	to apply to large market in China.	适用于中国的大市场。
606	But the real technology creation innovation	但真正的技术创造创新
607	has not truly taken place yet	还没有真正发生
608	or just in the beginning stage.	或刚刚开始阶段。
609	And now it did get the attention from the regulators,	现在它确实得到了监管者的注意,
610	from the entrepreneurs and from capital	企业家和资本
611	that it must happen now.	现在必须发生
612	And China is in a better place now compared to decades ago.	中国现在比几十年前要好
613	Now we have the largest group of engineers.	现在我们拥有最大的一批工程师。
614	We have a group of well experienced entrepreneurs	我们有一群经验丰富的企业家
615	and we have many large companies have people are living	我们有很多大公司的人生活着
616	to consider start their next thing.	考虑开始他们的下一个任务。
617	And we also have domestic capital to let people	我们也有国内资本 让人民
618	like Sean's firm, they invest in local companies	和Sean的律所一样 他们投资给本地公司
619	and managers.	和管理人员。
620	So China is at a stage, it has its own ecosystem	所以中国正处于一个阶段,它有自己的生态系统
621	to have more focused advancement in technology innovation.	在技术创新方面有重点地取得进展。
622	And there are many sectors within technology.	技术内部有很多部门
623	China is still behind.	中国仍然落后.
624	Although China is the largest digital economy	虽然中国是最大的数字经济
625	empowered by the large consumer base and middle class.	由大型消费者基础和中产阶级赋予权力。
626	Although it has lots of data,	虽然它有很多数据
627	they can power the AI and big data.	他们可以提供AI和大数据
628	But on the enterprise software front, we're still behind.	但是在企业软件方面,我们仍然落后.
629	And on the deep tech semiconductor automation front,	在科技半导体自动化方面
630	there's still a lot to catch up.	还有很多事要做
631	And those takes years, could be decades	这需要几年, 可能是几十年
632	for China truly to get up to speed.	为中国真正提高速度.
633	And there may not be things you can just borrow	可能没有可以借的东西
634	or copy anymore.	或复制更多的内容。
635	So I think those are the positive catalyst	所以我认为这些是积极的催化剂
636	that could push China to truly start its journey	这会推动中国真正开始自己的旅程
637	to be a true leader in global technology and innovation	成为全球技术和创新的真正领导者
638	and all the recipes are there.	和所有的食谱都在那里。
639	And I think it's time to enter the next stage.	我认为是时候进入下一阶段了。
640	And that side, I think is only positive.	而这一面,我认为只是正面的。
641	Thank you.	谢谢
642	The earlier from our perspective,	从我们的角度来看,
643	like for the investment to look into the trends.	像投资 研究趋势。
644	So obviously there's three significant trends	很明显有三个重要趋势
645	in the middle or longer terms.	中长期。
646	One is demographic change.	一是人口变化.
647	Like I'm from insurance company.	就像我从保险公司来的
648	Title insurance is focused on the life insurance.	产权保险以人寿保险为重点.
649	We're always talking about the population aging	我们总是谈论人口老化
650	or we're entering into the age of longevity.	或者我们进入长寿时代
651	That will make a lot of change.	这将带来很多变化。
652	One is like, and also at the same time,	一个是, 同时,
653	the birth rate is lower.	出生率较低。
654	So in that case, the labor is less	这样的话 劳动力就更少了
655	and labor cost is rising.	劳动力成本不断上升。
656	And also we have much more aged people need to take care.	我们还有更多的老年人需要照顾。
657	So in that case, we have say probably we need	因此,在这种情况下,我们说 也许我们需要
658	to focus on technology to improve the efficiency.	注重提高效益的技术。
659	So because we have more expensive labor	因为我们有更昂贵的劳动力
660	and also there are more kind of aged people	还有更多的老年人
661	and living longer.	并活得更长。
662	If people are living longer,	如果人们活得更久
663	they'll have more diseases happened.	他们会有更多的疾病发生。
664	So, and also they need more money to support them	所以,他们还需要更多的钱来支持他们
665	after retirement.	退休后。
666	So in that case, we have seen there are also	因此,在这种情况下,我们也看到
667	a lot of opportunities for healthcare	很多的保健机会
668	to under this kind of demographic change.	在这种人口变化下
669	This is one longer term trend.	这是一个长期趋势。
670	The same one is just as Sally said.	和莎莉说的一样
671	So we have seen like a geopolitical change,	因此,我们已经看到像地缘政治的变化,
672	in particular the tension between the US and China.	尤其是美国和中国之间的紧张关系。
673	The decouple of the technology and supply chain globally.	全球技术和供应链的脱钩。
674	So in that case, Chinese government has been focusing	因此在这种情况下,中国政府一直关注
675	on how to build up the kind of self independence	如何建立自我独立
676	or self controllable technology.	或自控技术。
677	That provides opportunities for startup companies	这为开办公司提供了机会
678	in China's local companies to develop the real technology	在中国当地公司开发真正的技术
679	and to enter into the tier one supply chain.	进入一级供应链。
680	We have seen a lot of opportunities in that sectors	我们在这个部门看到了很多机会
681	like the semiconductors, the AIs.	就像半导体、人工智能
682	So the local company have more opportunities now.	所以当地公司现在有更多的机会。
683	And the third trend that will be the kind of	第三个趋势是
684	we call that decarbonization trend.	我们称之为去碳化趋势。
685	People globally have a consensus	全球人民有一个共识
686	to reach the kind of carbon mutual situation.	达到碳的相互状态。
687	That in China, there are 30, 60 targets.	中国有30,60个目标。
688	In 2030, we'll reach a peak emission.	2030年将达到排放高峰.
689	In 2060, we'll reach carbon mutual.	2060年达到碳互通.
690	In that big by backdrop, so there are a lot of opportunities	在大背景下,所以有很多机会
691	for the mutual, for the carbon decarbonization technology.	对于相互, 对于碳脱碳技术。
692	Because this is China's strength.	因为这是中国的力量。
693	In the past, the energy is based on fossil fuel.	过去,能源是以化石燃料为基础的。
694	This is resources based.	这是基于资源。
695	China don't have much resources	中国没有多少资源
696	in that kind of that perspective.	那种观点。
697	But China is very strong in manufacturing.	但中国的制造业非常强大.
698	For the clean tech,	对于清洁技术,
699	clean tech is largely built on manufacturing.	清洁技术主要建立在制造业之上。
700	As solar wind, they are built on kind of	作为太阳风,它们建立在一种
701	equipment manufacturing capability.	设备制造能力。
702	And also the battery are built on the chemical manufactures.	电池也是建立在化学制造上
703	Those are all China's strengths.	这些都是中国的长处。
704	So in the next maybe several decades,	所以在接下来的几十年里,
705	the decarbonization will provide a lot of opportunities	脱碳会带来很多机会
706	both from the energy generation side	两者都来自能量生成方面
707	and also the user side.	还有用户方面。
708	For example, the electric cars	比如电动车
709	and the electric car value chain.	和电动汽车价值链。
710	So there are a lot of opportunities	所以有很多机会
711	driven by those three longer term trends.	受这三种长期趋势的驱动。
712	We have seen a lot of opportunities.	我们已经看到许多机会。
713	So probably this is opportunities	所以也许这是机会
714	for technology innovation in China.	中国的技术创新。
715	Thank you.	谢谢
716	As the last person,	作为最后一个人,
717	I initially didn't want to say too much on this topic.	我起初不想对这个话题说太多话.
718	But since most of my friends are quite optimistic,	但既然我大多数朋友都很乐观
719	I have to strike a different tone, unfortunately.	不幸的是,我不得不用另一种语气
720	In the healthcare industry,	在医疗行业,
721	I don't think	我不觉得
722	nonsense, garbage.	胡说八道,垃圾
723	For those people who understand me.	对那些理解我的人来说
724	The harsh reality is that	残酷的现实是
725	the most advanced healthcare technologies in China	中国最先进的卫生保健技术
726	are now all, most of them are provided by foreign countries.	现在,大部分是由外国提供的。
727	And yeah, we can all shout,	是的,我们可以喊,
728	we will fill the vacuum and we can have opportunities.	我们将填补真空,我们能够有机会。
729	But in reality, it's really hard.	但现实中,这真的很难。
730	Just give you one example.	举个例子
731	在COVID-19疫情期间,
732	one of the quite commonly used criteria	相当常用的标准之一
733	is CT scans to identify signs of your lung infection.	是CT扫描来识别肺部感染的迹象
734	Most of the high end CTs are sold by foreign companies.	大多数高端CT由外国公司销售.
735	Even worse, even the mid range	更糟糕的是,连中程
736	or slightly lower range CTs,	或范围略低的CT,
737	the key components are important.	关键组成部分很重要。
738	99% of the X-ray box,	99%的X光盒,
739	X-ray light sources in the CTs are important.	CTs中的X射线光源很重要.
740	If you want to produce it,	如果你想生产它,
741	there are only a couple of Chinese companies	只有几家中国公司
742	can produce mid to lower range	可以产生中到低范围
743	X-ray sources for the CT machines.	CT机的X光源.
744	Without any emphasis,	没有强调
745	and you can realize how harsh the situation is.	并且你能意识到情况有多糟糕
746	And if you want to produce it,	如果你想生产它,
747	it requires years of knowledge in this field.	它需要多年的这个领域的知识。
748	Some of the key components of these X-ray sources	这些X光源的一些关键部件
749	are important.	这一点很重要。
750	Only a few companies in Europe, in Japan,	只有几家公司在欧洲, 在日本,
751	or in the US can produce them.	或在美国可以生产它们。
752	We are in this field.	我们在这个领域。
753	We know how difficult it is.	我们知道这有多难。
754	One X-ray source costs about 300k	一个X光源费用约300k
755	to 1.5 million RMB per piece.	每块150万元人民币。
756	In China, we can only produce those lower end	在中国,我们只能生产这些低端
757	to 800k, that range of products,	800k, 产品范围,
758	and with very limited numbers.	人数有限
759	The key components of those light tubes are important.	这些光管的关键部件很重要。
760	And it's not something that you say,	也不是你说的
761	wow, it's such a good opportunity.	哇,这是一个很好的机会。
762	It's hard, it's really hard.	难,真难.
763	We talk about a lot of the medicines we use in China.	我们谈论了很多在中国使用的药物.
764	Most of you are of higher income in the society.	你们大部分是社会上收入较高的人.
765	For us, who we know in this field,	对我们来说,我们在这方面认识的人,
766	80% of the products used in China	中国使用的80%的产品
767	are still products that were used 10, 15, 20 years ago	仍然是10、15、20年前使用的产品
768	in the Western countries.	在西方国家。
769	And it's not something that we are proud of	这不是我们骄傲的事
770	and we want to change that.	我们想要改变这一点。
771	They are providing a lot of opportunities.	它们提供了许多机会。
772	But if you don't have a good system,	但是如果你没有一个好的系统
773	you cannot foster the innovation that can fill that void.	你不能促进能够填补这一空白的创新。
774	And in the short run, we already have a lot of talents	从短期来看,我们已经有很多才华
775	coming from other countries and a lot of technology basis,	来自其他国家和许多技术基础,
776	foundations, to provide some of the mid	基金会,以提供一些中期
777	to lower level products.	改为低级产品。
778	But for the most advanced products,	但对于最先进的产品,
779	we do still need to rely cross-border interactions,	我们仍然需要依靠跨界互动,
780	knowledge transfers, and these things.	知识的传承和这些东西。
781	In the longer run, if we stop,	从长远来看 如果我们停下来
782	if we really decouple, the situation could be even worse.	如果我们真的脱口而出, 情况可能会更糟。
783	And just within healthcare technology alone,	光是医疗技术,
784	the situation may not be that rosy	情况可能不是这样的
785	because most of these technology advances	因为大多数技术的进步
786	rely on biology research, biochemistry, materials,	依赖生物学研究,生物化学,材料,
787	computer science, physics, you name it.	计算机科学,物理,你说的。
788	And we know if you get to the bottom of it,	而且我们知道 如果你得到它的底部,
789	we still have a long way to catch up	我们还有很长的路要走
790	without some system in place to guarantee	没有建立某种保障制度
791	free exchange of ideas if you,	自由交流思想 如果你,
792	just like if you don't listen to the experts	就像你不听专家的话
793	and you are bound to lag behind.	你们必定是落后的。
794	And so for short term to mid term,	所以从短期到中期
795	maybe five years, 10 years,	也许5年,10年,
796	I'm still cautiously optimistic we can make progress.	我仍然谨慎乐观 我们可以取得进展。
797	But for the longer run, in the healthcare industry,	但从长远来看, 在医疗行业,
798	the progress in the outside world is very fast.	外界的进步非常迅速。
799	If you don't pay attention to it,	如果你不注意这一点,
800	you will slip behind again.	你会再次落后。
801	So that's my cautionary word for this field at least.	所以我至少要提醒大家注意这个领域。
802	Thank you.	谢谢
803	Thank you for the honest sharing from all of our panelists.	感谢大家的诚实分享
804	I think one, first thing I learned at Yale economic class	我想第一件事,我在耶鲁经济课学到的
805	is comparative advantage.	是相对优势。
806	So you produce something you are very good at	所以,你生产的东西 你非常擅长
807	and you exchange with others.	和别人交换。
808	And that shaped our, in the past 30 to 20 years,	过去30到20年中,我们一直如此
809	I think the China's fast growth	我认为中国的快速增长
810	benefit from this globalization.	从这一全球化中受益。
811	So I ask the question, Jim Rogers on this topic,	所以我问一个问题 吉姆·罗杰斯
812	what's the future of globalization?	全球化的未来是什么?
813	I think Daryl just mentioned that, okay,	我想达里尔刚刚提到,好吧,
814	for some reason we have some setbacks.	出于某种原因,我们有一些挫折。
815	Like Jim Roger also mentioned,	正如吉姆·罗杰也提到的那样,
816	we have setbacks in the States, in Germany,	我们在美国、德国都有挫折
817	in Japan in the past.	过去在日本
818	It all happened in the history.	这一切都发生在历史上。
819	Unfortunately people don't learn from the history.	不幸的是,人们不学习历史。
820	But sometimes it may happen	但有时可能发生
821	and it may go unnoticed	它可能会被忽略
822	because if everybody try to split	因为如果每个人都想分开
823	or try to close up with the world,	或试图关闭世界,
824	then people will realize it very quickly,	然后人们会很快意识到这一点,
825	maybe in two years, in one to two years.	也许在两年, 在一到两年。
826	So if we look forward for maybe two years from now,	所以,如果我们期待 也许两年后,
827	what are the opportunities for collaboration	合作的机会是什么?
828	in your field for Chinese entrepreneur investors	在您领域为中国企业家投资者服务
829	and the world?	这个世界呢?
830	I don't know who wants to start, maybe from Hanning?	我不知道谁想从咸宁开始?
831	You know, when you use the corporation words,	你知道,当你用公司的话,
832	I recently learned another word.	我最近学到了另一个词。
833	It's called access.	名为通.
834	In the past 20 years,	过去20年里
835	we talked about a lot of cooperation.	我们谈论了很多合作。
836	We take the cooperation as granted.	我们视合作为理所当然。
837	We can cooperate with every country, with every people.	我们可以与每一个国家、每一个民族合作。
838	But I think that from now on,	但我认为从现在开始
839	things will be changed dramatically.	事情会大变
840	There will be maybe in two or 10 years,	可能两十年后
841	we have less cooperation.	我们的合作较少。
842	And then we need to think about without the cooperation,	然后我们需要考虑 没有合作,
843	can we have access?	我们能进入吗?
844	Your access to the talents, your access to the package,	你的才能,你的软件包,
845	your access to the resource.	您访问资源。
846	Because if we really have the decon	因为如果我们真的有解密
847	or we really have no globalization,	或者我们真的没有全球化,
848	we just read the paper,	我们刚刚看报纸,
849	we just watch the TV or radio,	我们只是看电视或收音机
850	you know, you cannot get the inside information.	你知道,你不能得到 内部信息。
851	All the inside information is belong to the face-to-face talk	所有内部信息都属于面对面的谈话
852	from the friendship, from your labs collaboration	从友谊, 从你的实验室合作
853	or from your classmates or your friends.	或从同学或朋友。
854	So I maybe from this side,	所以我也许从这边
855	I'm a little negative from two or three years.	两三年来我有点阴性
856	I do worry about that.	我确实担心这个。
857	If we don't have so many collaboration,	如果我们没有这么多合作,
858	if we don't have so many overseas students,	如果我们没有这么多海外学生
859	whatever it is we send out or whatever it is they send in,	无论我们派遣什么或他们派遣什么,
860	we may have, we'll be behind the technology quick.	我们也许有,我们会在技术后面很快。
861	Can I jump in?	我能跳进去吗?
862	Yeah, surely.	当然
863	I think in terms of opportunities, right?	我想机会,对不对?
864	There is plenty, but the question today facing us	有很多,但今天我们面临的问题
865	or challenges we are facing is,	或我们面临的挑战是,
866	how do you utilize that technology?	你怎么利用这种技术?
867	How do you create or foster	如何创建或培育
868	a politically, economically capable environment	具有政治、经济能力的环境
869	so that you can actually take advantage of those access	这样你就可以利用这些机会
870	and collaborative opportunities, right?	和协作的机会,对不对?
871	Just to pick up a few very obvious areas,	就为了挑几个非常明显的领域
872	environmental science, right?	环境科学,对吧?
873	We all know we are facing	我们都知道我们面对的是
874	with a global carbon neutrality target.	全球碳中性目标。
875	For other countries, it's 2035, I believe.	对于其他国家来说,我相信是2035年.
876	China is 10 years later, it's 2045 to become carbon neutral.	中国十年后,2045年成为碳中性.
877	And then there's healthcare,	还有医疗
878	as Dacheng elaborates so well in terms of pros and cons,	正如达森在利弊方面所描述的那样,
879	and I couldn't expand on that.	我无法扩展。
880	And then there is agricultural science.	然后是农业科学。
881	People might start starving like the people in Shanghai.	人们可能会像上海人一样挨饿
882	And you will want to work on that,	你会想努力的,
883	which should be a global effort	应该是全球努力
884	with all the scientists who are expertly detailed.	与所有科学家 他们的专家详细。
885	And also, you will want to continue	还有,你还要继续
886	to attract talents back to the country.	吸引人才回乡
887	I think that we have done that very well	我认为我们做得非常好
888	in the last decade or two,	在过去十年或两年中,
889	but I doubt this is going to continue for the next three years.	但我怀疑这将会持续三年
890	In fact, when I see a backlash or exodus of some talents,	事实上,当我看到一些人才的反弹或外流时,
891	which is already happening in the last month,	上个月已经发生的事情
892	so I would think there are indeed a lot area	所以我会觉得确实有很多地方
893	where there are opportunities,	只要有机会
894	not just intelligent manufacturing,	不只是智能制造,
895	mass system, AI in particular.	大众系统,特别是大赦国际。
896	We've got a lot of talents back from the US.	我们从美国有不少才华
897	But developing this thing on our own	但是我们自己开发这个东西
898	probably will push us back another decade also	可能还会把我们推后十年
899	if we decide to really decouple.	如果我们决定真正 解开。
900	But then, unfortunately, this may not be for us to decide.	但不幸的是,这也许不能由我们来决定。
901	It might be just helpful to put it out there	把它放出来也许有帮助
902	since we have some audience who might be curious	因为我们有一些观众 谁可能会好奇
903	about what we're thinking based on our experience.	根据我们的经验我们的想法
904	So that will be my two cents.	所以那是我的两分钱
905	Thank you all.	谢谢大家
906	Thank you.	谢谢
907	Sean?	肖恩吗?
908	Yeah, probably from my perspective,	是啊,也许从我的角度,
909	like the cooperation between China and US,	就像中国和美国的合作,
910	I think is definitely based on assumption	我认为绝对是基于假设
911	like we can rebuild our trust.	就像我们可以重建我们的信任。
912	Graham-Allison教授关于这次旅行的演讲。
913	He studied like in the last, there are 16 opportunities	他像上次一样学习,有16个机会
914	like the rise in power, how to replace existing power	像权力的上升, 如何取代现有的权力
915	as any tools end into the peace.	任何工具都会进入和平
916	But I think in the past 40 years,	但我想在过去40年里
917	China is growing so quickly.	中国增长如此之快.
918	There's some illusion from both sides.	两边有些幻觉.
919	For China's side, we think we are so powerful,	对于中国方面,我们认为我们是如此强大,
920	we're growing so quickly, but we are not.	我们成长得如此之快 但我们没有
921	Just as Dacheng said, we are not in terms of technology,	正如Dacheng所说,我们不是在技术方面,
922	in terms of talent, we just be not strong.	在人才方面,我们只是不强壮。
923	And from US perspective,	从美国的角度来说,
924	they think China is growing so quickly,	他们认为中国增长如此之快,
925	definitely will be a threat, but we are not.	肯定是一个威胁,但我们不是。
926	We are not a threat because China,	我们不是威胁 因为中国
927	in the last 3,000 years,	过去3000年,
928	our culture is based on confusions, peaceful culture.	我们的文化建立在混乱与和平的文化之上。
929	We always rise peacefully, but people don't know that	我们总是和平地升起 但人们不知道
930	because based on the past experience,	因为根据过去的经验,
931	the rise in power definitely in both cases	在这两种情况下,权力的上升是绝对的。
932	were ending into a war.	战争即将结束
933	So as soon as there's some illusion	所以一旦出现幻觉
934	or misunderstanding from both sides,	或双方的误解,
935	it's very important, I think this conference is very good.	这是非常重要的,我觉得这个会议非常好。
936	At least people sit together to exchange their views.	至少人们坐在一起交换意见。
937	At least we as educated overseas	至少我们在国外受过教育
938	or people who are interested to do this conversation,	或有兴趣进行这种对话的人,
939	it's very important to understand both perspectives.	了解这两个观点非常重要。
940	So I think for the cooperation in technology,	所以我想为了科技合作
941	definitely we need to rebuild our trust between people,	我们绝对需要重建我们之间的信任,
942	between the government,	政府之间,
943	and between the companies across the ocean.	以及横跨海洋的公司之间
944	Thank you.	谢谢
945	That's very important.	这很重要
946	Sally and Derek, do you want to add something?	莎莉和德里克,你想加点什么吗?
947	No, maybe I think start somewhere first, right?	不,也许我想 从某个地方开始,对不对?
948	We may not see the cross-border everything,	我们可能没有看到跨界的一切,
949	collaboration, cooperation,	协作、合作、
950	but we should find areas that we have common ground,	但我们应该找到我们有共同点的领域,
951	China and US, in particular areas	中国和美国,特别领域
952	that humanity are facing together, such as climate change.	人类正在共同面对气候变化。
953	I think this is at least one of the area	我想这里至少是这里的一个
954	we all have a common opponent or threat facing humanity.	我们都有一个共同的对手 或威胁面对人类。
955	That could also happen sooner than people expected	也有可能比人们预期的早
956	and how to collaborate, optimizing our resources together	以及如何合作,优化我们的资源
957	to tackle the upcoming bigger crisis to humanities,	应对即将到来的人文领域更大的危机,
958	I think is something I believe the countries could agree upon	我认为各国可以同意
959	and start somewhere first to build trust	先从某处开始建立信任
960	and build the understanding of the world	建立对世界的了解
961	will be better with cooperation.	合作会更好
962	I think then we can go from there.	我想这样我们就可以走了
963	And also, one single country cannot tackle	而且,一个国家无法应对
964	this climate change issue, this global problem,	这一全球性问题,
965	and one single country cannot tackle	一个国家无法应对
966	the next more severe pandemic.	下一个更严重的流行病。
967	So I think facing, understanding these challenges	所以我想面对,理解这些挑战
968	to start working together in these areas	* 开始在这些领域开展合作;
969	that's more or less threatening probably to humanity	或多或少地威胁着人类
970	as a whole is a critical point for we all to realize.	作为一个整体,这是我们大家必须认识到的关键问题。
971	Thank you.	谢谢
972	I'll just add one example to Sally's comment.	我只是在莎莉的评论中补充一个例子.
973	The healthcare, I sounded very, some gloomy, alarming words	医疗,我听起来非常, 阴暗,惊人的词
974	for technology advances in the long run	从长远来看,促进技术进步
975	if we really start recovering from the outside world.	如果我们真的开始 从外部世界恢复。
976	But actually, for the healthcare sector,	但实际上, 对于医疗部门,
977	it's easier to interact with the other countries.	比较容易与其他国家互动.
978	That's probably the area that will be least	这大概就是最糟糕的地方了
979	or affected by political forces.	或受政治力量影响。
980	The physicians, the doctors,	医生,医生,
981	when they exchange treatment ideas,	当他们交换治疗想法的时候,
982	I don't think they will have a lot of political thinking	我不认为他们会有很多政治思想
983	behind their exchanges.	他们的交流背后。
984	We do see some changes.	我们确实看到一些变化。
985	And we do see some changes.	我们确实看到一些变化。
986	see that kind of exchanges among our biotech companies.	看看我们的生物技术公司之间的交流
987	And yes, we start, as Sally mentioned,	是的,我们开始, 正如莎莉提到,
988	we start from areas that rely on very deep mutual benefits	我们从高度依赖互利的领域开始
989	in terms of people's health, environment,	从人们的健康、环境、
990	and these relatively easier fields,	以及这些比较容易的田地,
991	and start from there, and to rebuild the trust	从那里开始 重建信任
992	across the different sides.	横跨不同方.
993	Thank you.	谢谢
994	I think to summarize, we have to start somewhere	我想总结一下,我们必须从某个地方开始
995	to rebuild the trust, and to get access before even	重建信任, 并获得访问之前
996	collaborate, but believing that when we share some,	合作,但相信当我们分享,
997	we still share a lot of common value with the work,	我们仍然有很多共同价值 与工作,
998	and Chinese people are smart and working very hard.	中国人很聪明,很努力工作
999	So I think there are many things we can still collaborate	所以我觉得我们还有很多事可以合作
1000	once the situation has changed.	一旦情况改变
1001	So another topic we want to talk about	所以我们想谈谈另一个话题
1002	is since most of our panelists are in the investment world,	因为我们的小组成员大多在投资界,
1003	I read the news for the first quarter of China's VCPE	我读了中国VCPE第一季的新闻
1004	The foreign VCs and PEs invest in the first quarter in 2020,	2020年第一季度外国价值链和项目实体投资,
1005	dropped 70%.	下降70%。
1006	And also the financing of those VCPEs from the world,	以及那些来自世界的VCPE的融资,
1007	from the foreign LPs, also dropped about 60%.	外国劳工也下降了约60%。
1008	And we all know this is a globalized market.	我们都知道这是一个全球化的市场。
1009	China will probably steal the fastest growth market economy	中国可能会抢走增长最快的市场经济
1010	in the world in this year.	这年的世界。
1011	So what's your view about foreign investment	你对外国投资的看法如何?
1012	in China for the next few years?	未来几年在中国?
1013	Maybe from Sally.	也许从莎莉。
1014	So I'm global investor.	所以我是全球投资者。
1015	Everyone is looking at it.	每个人都在看它。
1016	We know.	我们知道
1017	Yeah, so actually, I recall seeing somewhere	是啊,所以事实上, 我记得看到某处
1018	Professor Rob Siller about 10 years ago,	罗布·西勒教授大约十年前
1019	I think he commented one of the biggest risks in China.	我认为他评论了中国最大的风险之一.
1020	Actually, I thought he was going to say something else.	事实上 我以为他会说点别的
1021	What he said is that Chinese people have not	他说中国人没有
1022	seen a real recession.	看到真正的衰退。
1023	I actually think there are other things that are bigger risks.	我其实认为还有其他的事情是更大的风险。
1024	But that's actually true.	但这是真的。
1025	If we look at some of the prior cycles,	如果我们看看以前的一些周期
1026	for example, the tech bubble back in 2002.	例如2002年的技术泡沫。
1027	And I personally experienced I was working in the Salix Valley.	我亲身经历过我在萨利克斯谷工作的经历。
1028	And that's really distant from China.	这真的远离中国。
1029	China didn't really have a tech industry there to fall from.	中国并没有真正的技术产业 从那里下降。
1030	So that's the tech cycle in the US.	这就是美国的技术周期。
1031	And people there experienced that.	那里的人也经历过这种情况。
1032	And then the last biggest one is the global financial crisis,	最后一场是全球金融危机
1033	which is actually really mostly happening at the capital	其实这大多发生在首都
1034	level and the financial system.	级别和金融体系。
1035	And China, in a way, I think, recently well managed.	而中国,在某种程度上,我认为,最近管理得很好。
1036	So it's somewhat insulated from the damage or the downfall	所以,它有点隔绝 与损坏或下降
1037	of the Western financial system.	西方金融系统。
1038	So that was also quite distant to the investors	这对投资者来说也是很遥远的
1039	or entrepreneurs in China.	中国的企业家。
1040	And the China's economy wasn't that big.	而中国的经济并没有那么大.
1041	And China's tech industry wasn't big at all.	而中国的科技工业却并不大.
1042	And this time, I think a number of things	这次我想到很多事情
1043	happened at the same time.	发生在同一时间。
1044	One is the technology cycle.	一是技术循环.
1045	In China, after the past decades,	在中国,过去几十年之后
1046	when we have built some of the largest global companies,	当我们建立了一些最大的全球性公司,
1047	like the VATs, like the TMVs, global big companies,	像增值税, 像猛虎人马,全球大公司,
1048	they're still mostly the consumer internet ecosystem.	他们仍然是大部分的消费互联网生态系统。
1049	And that, I wouldn't say it comes to an end.	那样的话,我不会说它要结束了
1050	But the growth is no longer accelerating,	但增长不再加速
1051	or if not contracting.	如果不是签约的话
1052	So what's next?	接下来呢?
1053	What's the next big wave?	下一个大浪是什么?
1054	So we're kind of in that state of transition	所以,我们有点 处于过渡状态
1055	to the next technology cycle.	到下一个技术周期。
1056	But that's one cycle.	但这是一个循环。
1057	And then you have the capital market cycle.	然后你有资本市场的周期。
1058	And globally also, US is also facing the inflation	在全球,美国也面临着通货膨胀
1059	challenges.	挑战。
1060	And also, there's probably a little too much, too soon,	还有,可能有点太过火了,太快了
1061	capital pouring into the China market.	资本流入中国市场.
1062	So that kind of putting on the whole	所以,那种 使整个
1063	is not unusual historically.	历史上并不罕见。
1064	When you have too much capital, you take a stop.	当你有太多的资本, 你采取停止。
1065	So that's also one of the cycles.	所以这也是循环之一。
1066	And that also coupled with the more intense policy changes	再加上政策更激烈的变化
1067	in the past year by the regulators,	在过去一年中,监管者,
1068	that also caused a lot of volatility and uncertainty	也造成了许多波动和不确定性
1069	to capital, global capital, who want to kind of take a stop	{\fn华文楷体\fs16\1cHE0E0E0}他们想停一下
1070	to understand what's really going on.	来了解到底发生了什么
1071	So that's also, to some extent, intuitive.	所以,这在某种程度上也是直觉的。
1072	And then, unfortunately, we have another cycle	然后,不幸的是,我们有另一个周期
1073	going on, the geopolitical unexpected event happening.	地缘政治意外事件不断发生
1074	So all of a sudden, all three things are happening.	于是忽然三事皆现.
1075	And this time, it's really close to China.	这一次,它非常接近中国。
1076	It's too close to China.	与中国太近.
1077	And also, average Chinese or entrepreneurs	还有普通中国人或企业家
1078	or VCs, they have more to lose than any of the prior time.	或越共,他们比以往任何时间都要多。
1079	If you have nothing, you have nothing to lose.	若无所着即无所失.
1080	And you have to drop somewhere, to drop 70%.	你必须掉到某个地方, 下降70%。
1081	So in a way, we may be seeing the real cycle	所以从某种意义上说,我们可能看到真正的循环
1082	for the first time, which has happened many times	这是第一次, 已经发生了很多次
1083	historically.	历史上
1084	I haven't lived as long as Mr. Rogers	我和罗杰斯先生没有那么久
1085	had to have that wisdom.	必须要有这种智慧。
1086	But for him, this may be just another	但对于他来说,这可能是另一个
1087	Chen Ai, a little stone on the road.	陈爱,路边一小块石头.
1088	But to us, it's huge, because it's happening to everyone.	但是,对我们来说,这是巨大的, 因为这是发生在每个人身上。
1089	We feel it, right?	我们感觉到了 对吧?
1090	So that is more impactful, to some extent.	因此,这在某种程度上更具影响。
1091	I think from a global investor perspective,	我认为从全球投资者的角度来看,
1092	global flow of capital is good for asset allocation,	全球资本流动有利于资产分配,
1093	because diversification is helpful to mitigate risks,	因为多样化有助于减少风险,
1094	to help with the return to a certain extent.	在某种程度上帮助返回。
1095	So just from their own business perspective,	所以从他们自己的商业角度来说
1096	it will come back at some point, if it's beneficial to them.	如果对他们有利,它会回来的
1097	And China is a large enough economy, too big to ignore.	而中国经济规模大,不可忽视.
1098	Or at least they need to keep track and understand	或至少他们需要 保持跟踪和理解
1099	when and how much to come back.	什么时候回来 有多少回来
1100	So that part, historically, always happens.	所以,这个部分,历史上,总是发生。
1101	There are always cycles, and cycles always	总是有循环,循环总是
1102	have ups and downs.	有起有落。
1103	I think what may change or needs to change	我认为什么可能改变或需要改变
1104	is from people actually living in this ecosystem.	是来自生活在这个生态系统里的人。
1105	To rethink, after this first time real experience of crisis,	重新思考一下,经过这 第一次真正的危机经历,
1106	what they need to change facing a changing world.	面对不断变化的世界,他们需要改变什么。
1107	So first is assumption.	所以首先假设。
1108	Because the world has changed, we	因为世界已经改变,我们
1109	can't continue to use the same assumption.	不能继续使用同样的假设。
1110	For example, I used to believe the world would be better.	例如,我曾经相信世界会更好。
1111	Because in my limited lifespan, the world has been better.	因为在我有限的生命中,世界变得更美好。
1112	So if I adjust that assumption, why do I	所以,如果我调整这个假设,为什么我
1113	believe the world would be better?	相信世界会更好吗?
1114	If I adjust that assumption, the world is not too bad.	如果我调整这个假设,世界也不算太糟糕。
1115	If I think maybe the next couple of years,	如果我想也许接下来的几年,
1116	what could be 10 years, could be just volatile,	可能是10年, 可能只是波动,
1117	and this is more livable.	这更适合生活
1118	So that's one assumption.	所以这是一个假设。
1119	And two is your view of what is success.	二是你们对成功的看法。
1120	I think a lot of people may rethink,	我认为很多人会重新思考,
1121	given some of the changes to the public figures,	鉴于公众人物的一些变化,
1122	and the celebrities, and the fall of many	和名人, 和许多人的坠落,
1123	who used to be role models.	曾经是榜样
1124	So what do I really want?	那我到底想怎样?
1125	What do each of us really want?	我们每个人都想要什么?
1126	I think it's helpful when you're too busy chasing something,	我认为这是帮助 当你忙于追逐的东西,
1127	you forget about yourself.	你忘记了你自己
1128	So give us all a chance to look inside who I am,	给我们一个机会看看我是谁
1129	where I want to be, and resettle on its own path,	我想去的地方, 和重新安置在自己的道路上,
1130	on your path.	在你的路径。
1131	I'd like to talk about my theory of 120 years.	我想谈谈我120年的理论
1132	I've been talking about it here before.	我之前在这里说过
1133	Many of you may know, but Sally is a good psychological person.	你们中很多人可能知道 但莎莉是个好心理医生
1134	I'm a believer.	我当信者.
1135	I believe I will live to 120.	我相信我会活到120岁
1136	Your choice, how long?	你的选择,多久?
1137	So when we still believe, the world will be better.	所以,当我们仍然相信, 世界会更好。
1138	So if you live 120 versus 80, how you plan your life?	所以如果你活在120对80, 你怎么规划你的人生?
1139	If you live 120 years, this past three years,	如果你活了120年 这三年
1140	it's long, but it's short.	长但短.
1141	You can still have a new career, a new venture, a new startup,	你还可以有新的事业 新的冒险 新的开始
1142	a whole new life, a new boyfriend, girlfriend,	一个全新的生活,一个新的男朋友,女朋友,
1143	and a lot of time ahead of it.	和很多的时间 前面它。
1144	So I think it gives us a chance to pause and say, OK,	所以我想这给我们一个机会 暂停说,OK,
1145	the world I believe in, I'm chasing for every day.	我所信仰的世界 我每天都在追求
1146	All of a sudden, it stops.	忽然止观.
1147	Who knows, it could be better after all this.	谁知道呢,经过这一切会更好
1148	You find your true love in life.	你在生活中找到真爱
1149	I'm not just saying person, your true passion in life.	我不只是说人, 你真正的激情在生活中。
1150	And you may take a new journey, and you have a longer time	你可能要踏上新的旅程 你还有更长的时间
1151	if you change your assumption.	如果你改变你的假设。
1152	So I think maybe we should change our own assumption.	因此,我认为也许我们应该改变我们自己的假设。
1153	And also in investment, why you just	还有投资,为什么你只是
1154	have to build a billion dollar company in three years?	3年内要建10亿美元的公司?
1155	It's unreal.	谓不真实.
1156	In the Western world, the venture actually	在西方世界,这个冒险
1157	fund we invest is actually 10 year plus four year cycle.	我们的投资是10年加4年周期。
1158	Because true innovation, true venture, it takes a long time.	因为真正的创新,真正的冒险需要很长时间.
1159	For some reason, we were able to accelerate that pace,	由于某种原因,我们得以加快速度,
1160	mostly because consumer internet in China made it possible.	大部分是因为中国的消费互联网才有这个可能。
1161	You can build a billion dollar company, $10 billion company,	你可以建立10亿美元的公司,100亿美元的公司,
1162	three years in five years.	三年 五年内。
1163	But that may not be the case in many other fields.	但许多其他领域的情况可能并非如此。
1164	So we should have more patience.	因此,我们应该有更多的耐心。
1165	If you truly are passionate about this technology	如果你真的热衷于这个技术
1166	or what you're doing, be more patient.	或你在做什么, 更加耐心。
1167	Take a longer time horizon.	时间跨度更长
1168	Change your time and space perspectives.	改变你的时间和空间视角。
1169	Then you have a longer time goal.	那你还有更长的时间目标
1170	You can deal with the near term challenges.	你可以应付近期的挑战。
1171	So this next year may be tough.	所以明年可能很艰难。
1172	The next two or three years may be tough.	接下来的两三年可能很艰难.
1173	But if you are persistent, you have a goal,	但如果你坚持,你有一个目标,
1174	and you continue to work towards it, it's still possible.	你继续为此努力 仍然有可能
1175	So I think it helps us to think a lot of different things.	所以我认为它能帮助我们思考很多不同的事物。
1176	In addition to, oh, investment in China,	除了对华投资
1177	this quarter is done, right?	这个季度结束了,对吧?
1178	But it could bring a lot of great stuff	但它可以带来很多伟大的东西
1179	in three years, five years, 10 years,	在三年,五年,十年,
1180	because of this sort of down cycle.	因为这种下降循环。
1181	So I think it's all about what time span you look at.	所以,我想这是所有的时间 你看看。
1182	That's why Mr. Rogers continues to be bullish	这就是为什么罗杰斯先生继续大骂大骂
1183	and encourage everybody to learn Chinese.	并鼓励大家学习中文。
1184	I think that the truth is, the jelly is,	我认为事实是,果冻是,
1185	at least you need to learn Chinese.	至少你要学中文
1186	This cannot be wrong, right?	这不可能是错的,对吧?
1187	The long term, right?	长期,对不对?
1188	And two is China is just so important.	二是中国很重要
1189	That cannot be false either, right?	也不可能是错的,对吧?
1190	So now we know what's in the mind of foreign LPs.	所以现在我们知道什么是 外国LP的心思。
1191	For the past.	为过去事.
1192	So Shirley, I want to hear your view, maybe.	雪莉 我想听听你的看法
1193	You can talk about some view from your perspective.	你可以从你的角度谈论一些观点。
1194	I think we'll see slowing down of foreign capital,	我想我们会看到外国资本减速
1195	just empirically.	只是经验性的。
1196	In fact, even though I didn't get a chance	事实上,虽然我没有机会
1197	to read the questions from today's panel,	阅读今天小组的问题,
1198	I happen to have spoken to a number of friends	我碰巧跟几个朋友谈过了
1199	since they scattered around the world.	因为他们分散在世界各地。
1200	For Asia investors, they're mostly in Hong Kong	对亚洲投资者来说,他们大多在香港
1201	and Singapore.	还有新加坡
1202	In the last months, a lot of my friends	过去几个月 我有很多朋友
1203	moved from Shanghai to Singapore.	从上海迁到新加坡.
1204	They just pick up their bags.	他们只是拿起他们的行李。
1205	So I think a stable political, economic environment	所以我认为一个稳定的政治,经济环境
1206	is crucial to keep the capital coming in.	保持资本流入至关重要。
1207	And I think that until about maybe five years ago,	我想直到大约五年前
1208	a lot of us, probably even the policymakers,	很多人,甚至决策者,
1209	think that we have, we're so wealthy,	认为我们有, 我们是如此富有,
1210	we're such a wealthy nation now,	我们现在是一个如此富裕的国家,
1211	we have a robust middle class,	我们有一个强大的中产阶级,
1212	and we have more money than the good companies	我们的钱比好公司还多
1213	you can invest in.	你可以投资。
1214	People are competing at price level.	人们在价格水平上竞争。
1215	It's insane violations,	这是疯狂的违反,
1216	and some of us probably lost half their share,	我们中有些人可能失去了一半的股份,
1217	most of it.	大部分时间
1218	But this has kind of come to a hearting stop,	但是,这已经到了一种 心脏停止,
1219	I think, in the last few months.	我想,在过去几个月里。
1220	So I do think that I'll be very cautious	所以我认为我会非常小心
1221	if I'm looking at foreign capital inflow.	如果我看的是外国资本流入。
1222	And to give a good example,	举个好例子
1223	two of my hedge funds friends called me over the weekend,	我两个对冲基金的朋友在周末打电话给我,
1224	and one of them is one of the largest listed ones.	其中一个是名单上最大的一个。
1225	He runs China, he just came back from a meeting	他经营中国,他刚开会回来
1226	in Singapore, arrived in Hong Kong,	在新加坡,抵达香港
1227	called me up and said, how are you doing?	打电话给我说,你好吗?
1228	So I asked him, I said, okay,	所以我问他 我说 好吧
1229	so what's the new strategy for China investing?	中国投资的新策略是什么?
1230	He said, we'll be very cautious,	他说,我们会非常谨慎,
1231	because they invested heavily in real estate,	因为他们在房地产上投资很大
1232	which you will know is happening now.	你会知道,现在正在发生。
1233	And then a second person called me	然后另一个人给我打电话
1234	after seeing which of we are almost close to starving	在看到我们中谁快饿死了之后
1235	from vegetables.	从蔬菜。
1236	And so he's from Shanghai,	所以他来自上海
1237	he works with one of the largest European hedge funds,	他与欧洲最大的对冲基金之一合作,
1238	based in London, but he just moved to Singapore.	总部在伦敦 但他刚搬到新加坡
1239	So he told me that their internal strategy	他告诉我他们的内部策略
1240	is they think that near-term,	他们以为那是近期的,
1241	China assets are not impossible.	中国资产并非不可能。
1242	So these are the hedge fund guys.	这就是对冲基金的人。
1243	And in the meantime, just to get at the bonds	在此期间, 只是为了得到债券
1244	for the sake of tonight's discussion,	为了今晚的讨论,
1245	I reached out to one of the largest asset managers in New York.	我联系了纽约最大的资产管理人之一
1246	This friend of mine is the head	这个朋友就是头
1247	of Asia investment strategy.	亚洲投资战略。
1248	So we had a chat last night,	昨晚我们聊了聊
1249	and I think that they are, I would say,	我认为他们是,我会说,
1250	at the most neutral on China, near-term,	在中国最中立的地方, 近期,
1251	because they just obtained some new licenses,	因为他们刚刚获得了一些新的许可证,
1252	they can potentially raise some R&D.	它们有可能增加一些研发活动。
1253	So instead of putting their US investment money in,	因此,与其把美国的投资资金投入其中,
1254	they decided they'll play around with our local people's money,	他们决定用我们本地人的钱玩
1255	which is pretty smart, I think.	我觉得这很聪明
1256	Then I spoke to one of the largest European asset managers,	之后我跟欧洲最大的资产管理人之一谈过
1257	I don't know the name, name him, he's a dear friend.	我不知道他的名字,给他起名,他是一个亲爱的朋友。
1258	He's been managing greater China	他管理着大中国
1259	for literally the largest European asset management company.	对于实际上最大的欧洲资产管理公司。
1260	And I think that he, on the other hand,	我认为他, 另一方面,
1261	actually is a way to see attitude.	其实是看到态度的一种方式。
1262	So it's actually interesting to see the pure buy side of people.	因此,看到人们的纯买面其实很有趣.
1263	I think that they're more mild in nature	我觉得它们比较温和
1264	and longer term in terms of their funds,	和较长期的资金,
1265	while the hedge fund guys, you all know,	当对冲基金的家伙, 你们都知道,
1266	are shorter than us, right?	比我们矮,对不对?
1267	We are mostly doing the primary market in venture capital.	我们主要从事风险资本的主要市场。
1268	So it's very interesting.	所以这很有趣。
1269	But then all together, I do think,	但是,然后所有在一起,我确实认为,
1270	including myself, we've been investing	包括我自己,我们一直在投资
1271	the last few years more on the R&D side.	过去几年在研究与发展方面更进一步。
1272	We pretty much stopped doing US dollar investing	我们几乎停止做美元投资
1273	for the reasons you all know.	因为你们都知道的原因
1274	All the China stocks have been beaten,	所有中国股票都被打掉了
1275	mostly if not to Earth, it's close to there.	大部分都离地球很近
1276	A friend of mine, actually two of my friends	一个朋友,其实是两个朋友
1277	have recently migrated to Singapore	最近移居新加坡
1278	because his company valuation lost 80% in value.	因为他的公司估价损失了80%
1279	And he was quite frustrated.	他相当沮丧。
1280	And I hope he comes back soon.	我希望他很快回来
1281	In fact, while we are on the topic,	事实上,当我们讨论这个话题的时候,
1282	I just, a friend of mine sent me a message from Fang Xinkai,	我只是,我的一个朋友给我发了一条 方新凯的消息,
1283	一个COSS的问题 今天谁在Borough发言。
1284	People ask him about foreign capital.	人们问他外国资本的事
1285	And his reply is, sooner or later they will return.	他的答复是 他们迟早会回来的
1286	And then in my retry, the reply was,	然后在我的复习中, 答案是,
1287	the gentleman who runs the entire UBS is asset management.	管理整个UBS的先生是资产管理人
1288	So he just ha ha.	这么说他就是哈哈
1289	He said sooner or later is a good way to put it.	他说早晚都是好方法
1290	So I think on that note,	所以,我想到这一点,
1291	I probably just took a small group of people's temperature	我可能只是吃了一小撮人的体温
1292	but they happen to run some of the biggest	但他们碰巧运行一些最大的
1293	amount of money in the world.	世界上的金钱
1294	Thank you.	谢谢
1295	It's very insightful.	甚有见识.
1296	So what I heard, some people are starving	听说有人在挨饿
1297	so they have to leave.	所以他们必须离开。
1298	Like a hedge fund.	如对冲基金.
1299	Even me.	连我也是
1300	Oh, okay.	哦,还好。
1301	I have been fed by all my friends.	我得到了所有朋友的喂养。
1302	Because I'm a star.	因为我是明星
1303	My time has come.	我的时间到了。
1304	And I have been brought down to last month.	我被降格到上个月
1305	Okay, yeah.	好吧,没错。
1306	That's something should be fixed soon, right?	很快就会修好的,对吧?
1307	That's something can happen in short term.	这是短期内可能发生的事情。
1308	In longer term, longer term investors,	从长远来看,长期投资者,
1309	you have way time to see, right?	你有时间看,对不对?
1310	So that's probably the attitude.	所以,这可能是态度。
1311	Other speakers?	其他发言者?
1312	Derek, you want to?	德里克,你想吗?
1313	No, thank you.	不 谢谢
1314	I may want to add one quote from Kai-Fu Lee.	我想补充一句李启福的话
1315	He is currently in the US to do the fundraising.	他现在在美国进行筹款。
1316	And he spoke to the...	他和那个...
1317	That's a great timing.	时机不错
1318	Thank you.	谢谢
1319	It's a hard job.	勤修苦业.
1320	I want to hear his speeches.	我想听听他的演讲
1321	Okay.	摆
1322	He talked to...	他告诉...
1323	And he talked before us.	他在我们面前说话
1324	So that we know how to talk to people like Sally.	这样我们才能跟莎莉这样的人说话
1325	He talked to the foreign, especially the US investors.	他与外国,尤其是美国投资者进行了交谈.
1326	He said, now this is the best time to invest into China.	他说,现在是向中国投资的最佳时机。
1327	There's two reasons.	有二因缘.
1328	If you have invested into China before,	如果你之前投资过中国
1329	now in the past the price was pretty high.	过去的价格非常高
1330	Now is a good timing to get a good deal with the fair price.	现在是一个好时机 得到一个很好的交易 公平价格。
1331	If you've never invested into China before,	如果你从没投资过中国
1332	now this is even a great time to invest into China.	现在是投资中国的好时机
1333	Because few competitors with you.	因为跟你竞争的人很少
1334	I hope he raised money with that.	我希望他用这个来筹钱
1335	And I think another thing is,	我觉得还有一件事
1336	in the past as a venture capital,	过去作为风险资本,
1337	we mainly focused on the US investors.	我们主要关注美国投资者
1338	Maybe largely about 80% of our enemies are from the US.	也许大约80%的敌人来自美国
1339	But now we are facing a challenge.	但是,我们现在面临着挑战。
1340	So we began to explore more potential enemies	所以我们开始探索更多的潜在敌人
1341	from other countries, including Asia, Middle East and Europe.	来自其他国家,包括亚洲、中东和欧洲。
1342	So maybe this is also a good news for us	所以也许这对我们来说也是个好消息
1343	to expose Chinese market or Chinese insight	揭露中国市场或中国的洞察力
1344	to more global investors.	给更多的全球投资者。
1345	Because in the past we even don't have time to talk with them.	因为过去我们甚至没有时间跟他们谈
1346	So to summarize what I heard,	所以总结一下我听到的
1347	I think Robert Shiller might be right.	我想罗伯特・希勒可能是对的
1348	We haven't seen a real recession in China.	我们还没有看到真正的衰退在中国。
1349	We actually don't know how to react.	我们实际上不知道如何反应。
1350	Even the most sophisticated investors	即使是最复杂的投资者
1351	are still in the kind of situation.	还处于这种境地。
1352	So if we look at in longer term for the technology part,	因此,如果我们从长远来看技术部分,
1353	because I know many of the audience here today,	因为我今天认识很多观众
1354	they are thinking about to become entrepreneurs,	他们想成为企业家,
1355	to start up something in the future.	在未来开始一些事情。
1356	So what are the big trends you think people can look at	那么,什么是大趋势 你认为人们可以看
1357	in technology, in healthcare,	在技术、保健、
1358	some specific areas you think people can still look at	一些你认为人们仍然可以看的具体领域
1359	in China?	在中国?
1360	I mean, I mentioned too hardcore technology,	我的意思是,我提到了太硬核技术,
1361	if you have really, really have the pattern of talent on this.	如果你真的有,真的有 模式的人才在这里。
1362	And another one is the green energy.	另一个是绿色能源。
1363	Can you give us some examples of hardcore technology?	你能给我们一些核心技术的例子吗?
1364	Chips.	芯片 芯片 芯片
1365	Chips, okay.	芯片,好吗。
1366	Or AI, like AI in agriculture, or AI in biotech.	或者AI,像AI在农业,或者AI在生物技术。
1367	Okay.	摆
1368	That's good news for some technology guys.	这对一些科技人士来说是好消息.
1369	Darren?	达伦?
1370	You mentioned that.	你说过的
1371	My area is probably too narrow	我的地盘可能太窄了
1372	for many of the audience members.	对许多观众来说
1373	We do biotech and what we invest in	我们做生物技术 和我们投资
1374	are mainly those companies	主要是那些公司
1375	that truly have innovative technologies	真正有创新技术的
1376	that can be tested across the Pacific.	可以测试整个太平洋。
1377	For example, drugs, right?	比如,毒品,对吗?
1378	We need the companies to have pipeline products	我们需要公司拥有管道产品
1379	that go through true multinational,	经历真正的跨国,
1380	multi-centered clinical trials.	多中心临床试验.
1381	And they need to withstand very high standard examinations	他们需要承受高标准考试
1382	of their products.	他们的产品。
1383	And we do see, you know, in the biotech field,	在生物技术领域,
1384	we do see many scientists, researchers, entrepreneurs,	我们确实看到许多科学家、研究人员、企业家
1385	they have products or technologies	他们有产品或技术
1386	and at or even breaking the envelope	在信封上甚至断裂时
1387	of the most advanced technology around the globe.	全球最先进的技术
1388	And these are the technologies that will have survived	这些技术将会存活下来
1389	next 10 years, 15 years, 20 years.	接下来的十年,15年,20年。
1390	And these are the things that we are looking after,	这些都是我们所关心的事情,
1391	looking for and after.	寻找和之后。
1392	Thank you.	谢谢
1393	Sean?	肖恩吗?
1394	Yeah, I just share some trends before,	是啊,我只是分享一些趋势之前,
1395	there are three trends.	有三个趋势。
1396	In particular, for us, like tech insurance,	尤其对我们来说 就像技术保险
1397	where basically we are too focused	基本上我们太专注
1398	even for the, both for the direct investment	即使是直接投资
1399	and also indirect, we invest in the GPs.	还有间接的,我们投资GP。
1400	Why is healthcare different?	为什么保健不同?
1401	This is our major area.	这是我们的主要地区。
1402	But we're looking at the healthcare	但是我们在看医疗
1403	is more from ecosystem perspective.	从生态系统的角度来说,
1404	So because we see there are a lot of opportunities	因为我们看到有很多机会
1405	for the payment innovation,	支付创新,
1406	because currently the China government	因为目前中国政府
1407	definitely have some pressure on the payment.	肯定有压力支付。
1408	But for any innovation,	但对于任何创新
1409	they need to have some payment to support that.	他们需要一些钱来支持这一点。
1410	So we have to see a lot of opportunities	所以我们得看到很多机会
1411	to how to innovate the commercial payment.	如何创新商业支付。
1412	System to support the innovation in the healthcare.	支持保健创新的系统。
1413	And also, we also see a lot of opportunities	还有,我们也看到了很多机会
1414	to how to manage the health.	如何管理健康。
1415	Like I said, people were living very non-life.	正如我所说,人们过着非生命的生活。
1416	When you're living in life,	当你活着的时候
1417	it's more about health management.	更多是关于健康管理。
1418	This is also the key area for insurance company.	这也是保险公司的关键领域。
1419	Because the insurance company want to make money,	因为保险公司想赚钱
1420	they need to control the cost.	他们需要控制成本。
1421	How to control the cost,	如何控制成本,
1422	we need to know people's data	我们需要知道人们的数据
1423	and intervene their kind of daily activities	并干涉他们的日常活动
1424	and improve their kind of daily health.	并改善其日常健康。
1425	So in that perspective,	所以从这个角度看
1426	we see many opportunities in the healthcare area.	医疗领域有很多机会
1427	Another area, we think for us,	另一个领域,我们认为,
1428	either we do the investment or do the startup.	我们要么投资 要么启动
1429	We need to stay right with the trends.	我们需要保持正确的趋势。
1430	So another big trend in the last 30 years	过去30年的又一大趋势
1431	is definitely the carbon mutual technology.	绝对是碳相互技术。
1432	Electric cars, those are a very huge market	电动汽车,这些是巨大的市场
1433	and a very firm trend going forward.	和非常坚定的前进趋势。
1434	So we spend a lot of time to do the research	所以我们花了很多时间来研究
1435	and to do the asset allocation	并进行资产分配
1436	on the carbon mutual technology sectors.	碳相互技术部门。
1437	There are so many opportunities there.	那里有很多机会
1438	And also, China definitely have an advantage	还有,中国绝对有优势
1439	in that perspective.	从这个角度看
1440	So for example, right now, the solar system,	例如,现在,太阳系,
1441	over like 80%, if I remember correct,	超过80%, 如果我记得正确,
1442	is coming from China.	是从中国来的
1443	This is a China advantage.	这是中国的优势
1444	So we will see a lot of opportunities going forward.	因此,我们将看到许多机会正在向前发展。
1445	That's from our perspective.	从我们的角度来说
1446	Thank you.	谢谢
1447	Shirley, do you want to say something?	雪莉,你想说什么?
1448	I think I've said my piece.	我想我已经说了我的作品。
1449	Thank you.	谢谢
1450	Okay.	摆
1451	So I think in the interest of time,	所以我为了时间考虑
1452	maybe we open up for some questions	也许我们想问几个问题
1453	from our audience, both in Beijing and online.	从我们的观众,无论是在北京还是在线。
1454	So anyone who want to ask them questions?	有人想问他们吗?
1455	Hi, thank you so much for the very interesting discussions.	嗨,非常感谢你 非常有趣的讨论。
1456	My name is Michael.	我叫迈克尔
1457	I'm actually currently a high school student.	我现在是高中生
1458	My question, I have two really quick questions.	我的问题,我有两个非常快速的问题。
1459	One question is that, you know, obviously we've mentioned	有一个问题是,你知道,显然我们已经提到
1460	how you've touched upon inflation	你是如何触及通货膨胀的
1461	and how businesses are going to respond	企业如何应对
1462	to future investments and the future outlook	和未来展望
1463	of the Chinese economy.	中国经济的发展。
1464	But at the same time, are you worried about,	但与此同时, 你担心,
1465	obviously there are trade cycles,	显然有贸易周期
1466	but are you worried about another recession quite soon?	但你担心另一个衰退 很快?
1467	And if that recession is kind of like demands	如果经济衰退 有点像要求
1468	like cost from household consumption?	像家庭消费的成本?
1469	You mean demands drop from household consumption?	你是说家庭消费需求下降?
1470	So basically that's the definition of recession.	所以基本上这就是衰退的定义。
1471	That's true.	没错
1472	Thank you.	谢谢
1473	Thank you for the question.	谢谢你的问候
1474	When you say you're a high school student,	当你说你是高中生时
1475	we all pay extra attention.	我们都格外注意
1476	That's true, that's true.	即是实相.
1477	We all see hope.	我们都看到了希望。
1478	No, it's great, high school students are worried about	不,这是伟大的,高中生担心
1479	the normal world.	正常的世界。
1480	You represent the future.	你代表着未来
1481	Okay, who wants to start?	好吧,谁想开始?
1482	If the top question is the more optimistic one.	如果顶端的问题更乐观的话。
1483	Anyway, I think, well, I'm in high school.	总之,我想,嗯,我在高中。
1484	I would just go and enjoy myself and have a good time.	我会去享受自己 玩得开心
1485	You know, the world still turns until we promote it further.	这个世界仍然在转动 直到我们进一步推动它。
1486	If the poverty mentality goes,	如果贫穷心态消失
1487	can't be reached with all these new EV cars.	这些新的EV车无法到达.
1488	I've invested in hydrogen motors,	我投资了氢马达,
1489	which are used in hydrogen cars, which is quite cutting edge,	用于氢气汽车, 这是相当尖端,
1490	but pretty high risk, because they are so expensive.	但风险很高 因为它们太贵了
1491	So I think near term, because as I said,	所以我认为短期内,因为我说过,
1492	Sarah and I are relatively more old timers	莎拉和我比较老
1493	than most of the audience.	比大多数观众。
1494	In fact, we also share a commonality	事实上,我们也有共同之处
1495	in that we both have two kids who,	我们有两个孩子,
1496	her daughters actually are supposed to be online	她的女儿实际上应该是在网上的
1497	listening to the distinguished mother speaking tonight.	今晚听尊贵的母亲说话
1498	One high school student.	一个高中生。
1499	My kids are both graduate from there.	我的孩子都毕业了
1500	One from SLM, one from Yale College.	一名来自苏丹解放运动,一名来自耶鲁学院。
1501	So that's why I was willing to share my perspective	所以我愿意分享我的观点
1502	as someone who has gone through quite a few cycles,	作为一个经历了很多循环的人,
1503	I would say, because I started out as a corporate investor.	我会说 因为我一开始是公司投资人
1504	I used to manage a few billion dollars	我曾经管理过几十亿美元
1505	Verizon投资公司
1506	the largest U.S. corporate pension fund,	美国最大的公司养老基金,
1507	and I was a global investor,	我是一个全球投资者,
1508	but mostly in secondary markets.	但大多在二级市场。
1509	But through that, I gained really a global perspective	但通过这个,我得到了 一个真正的全球视角
1510	on how economic and political trends or divide	经济和政治趋势或鸿沟
1511	can impact or disrupt the economy	可以影响或扰乱经济
1512	and make you a lot of money or lose a lot of money.	让你赚很多钱 或损失很多钱
1513	For instance, in 1994, there's financial crisis	例如,1994年发生了金融危机
1514	in a smaller scale, and I was invested in Thailand.	我被投资到泰国
1515	And I got a call from Barton Bix,	我接到巴顿比克斯的电话
1516	who was running Morgan Stanley as a management company,	他经营摩根斯坦利 作为管理公司,
1517	and said, you know, actually, I think you should get out,	说,你知道,实际上, 我想你应该离开,
1518	because we foresee or forecast a currency crisis	因为我们预见或预测货币危机
1519	there at the time of my collapse.	在我崩溃的时候
1520	I took his piece of advice, this is pretty certain,	我接受了他的忠告 这很确定
1521	went to my investment committee,	去了我的投资委员会,
1522	I sold my Thai stocks, just in time.	我及时卖了泰国股票
1523	So it was pretty scary because I could have lost a lot of money.	所以很可怕 因为我可能损失了很多钱
1524	And then a few years later,	然后几年后,
1525	I joined the Austrian, Jamie Morgan,	我加入了奥地利人杰米·摩根
1526	in order to come back, you know, like Jim said,	要回来,你知道,像吉姆说,
1527	come back to Asia, and I came back to Hong Kong	回到亚洲,我回到香港
1528	with Jamie Morgan, left Bonsai to become a banker.	和杰米·摩根一起离开邦赛成为银行家.
1529	And in 1997, Jamie Morgan, for the first time	在1997年,杰米・摩根,第一次
1530	in his corporate history, fired a hundred people	在他的公司历史中, 开除了一百人
1531	in his Hong Kong office.	在他的香港办公室。
1532	And that particular day, I was pitching for the deal	那天,我正准备做交易
1533	in CNU's office, and they fired our China rep.	他们开除了我们的中国代表
1534	So I thought, you know, my career was dead.	所以我想,你知道, 我的事业是死了。
1535	And because my head could be, you know, a chalking ball,	因为我的头可能是一个粉笔球,
1536	you know, could be chopped off the next day.	你知道,可能会被砍掉的第二天。
1537	So I think in a career, you know, when you grow older,	所以我想,在事业中, 你知道,当你长大了,
1538	you know, as a high school student,	作为一名高中生
1539	and said, there are going to be so many ups and downs, right?	说,会有这么多起伏,对不对?
1540	Regardless what name school, you know,	不管学校叫什么,你知道,
1541	or I'm going to attend, it's much better to be prepared,	或者我要去参加, 这是更好的准备,
1542	right, to in fact, to experience some down cycles	右,事实上,体验一些下行周期
1543	would be very helpful to building a positive psychology,	将非常有助于 建立一个积极的心理学,
1544	or just to build up your psychology, you know,	或者只是建立你的心理学,你知道,
1545	that to help you deal with all the adversities.	帮助你应对所有不利因素
1546	Again, on this point, Sally actually is better	再说一遍,在这一点上,莎莉其实更好
1547	than my coach, Debbie, but just to remind my experience.	而不是我的教练黛比 但只是为了提醒我的经验
1548	So again, going back to you, I will say,	因此,再次回到你身边,我会说,
1549	I will pay attention and try to learn	我会注意学习
1550	if you want to be a, you know, a master or entrepreneur,	如果你想成为一个,你知道,一个主人或企业家,
1551	but in the meantime, don't worry, just be happy.	但与此同时,别担心,只是高兴。
1552	Go for it.	来啊
1553	Thank you, that's a very good suggestion.	谢谢,这是一个非常好的建议。
1554	It's really good to see young people like you	看到你这样的年轻人真好
1555	to come to this panel.	来到这个面板。
1556	So I think it's really encouraging, I guess,	所以我觉得这真的很鼓舞人心 我想
1557	Yale, where this group of people attract young people	耶鲁,这群人吸引了年轻人
1558	like you, who are very curious, right,	像你一样,他们非常好奇,对吗?
1559	who has broad range of knowledge,	他是有广泛知识的,
1560	and who is also very confident.	他们确是自信的。
1561	So congratulations, I think you're on the right track	恭喜你,我想你走对了
1562	to be the future leader of something.	成为未来的领袖
1563	That's great.	赞曰.
1564	But many of us, I guess, well, I'm not trained as economist,	但我们很多人,我想,嗯, 我没有受过经济学家训练,
1565	so I think the true economist may not be able	所以我认为真正的经济学家可能无法
1566	to predict exactly when the recession is happening.	准确预测衰退发生的时间。
1567	We've been reading, you know, every investment bank	我们一直在阅读,你知道,每一个投资银行
1568	keeps saying recession is coming or recession is coming.	总是说衰退即将来临 或者衰退即将来临
1569	You know, you can be right when you're lucky,	你知道,你可以是正确的 当你幸运,
1570	but you can never predict.	但你永远无法预测
1571	So, and also I think, you know, what you're talking about	所以,我还认为,你知道, 你在说什么
1572	may be more U.S. side.	可能是美国方面
1573	There has been anticipation there may be a recession coming.	人们已经预料到可能会出现衰退。
1574	I think the federal government and the regulators	我认为联邦政府和监管者
1575	are trying to have measures to help ease the downside.	正在设法采取措施帮助缓解不利因素。
1576	I think what we don't want to see is regulator here,	我想我们不想看到的是这里的监管者
1577	you know, we don't want manmade recession,	你知道,我们不希望人为衰退,
1578	so obviously we want to properly use the policy tools	很明显,我们想正确使用政策工具
1579	to help ease that, you know, if you have inflation	帮助缓解,你知道,如果你有通货膨胀
1580	coupled with unemployment	失业
1581	and all these challenges, that's not a good thing to see.	和所有这些挑战, 这不是一个好事看到。
1582	But as Shirley just mentioned,	但正如雪莉刚才提到的,
1583	we have been experienced quite some stuff in our short life	我们在短短的人生中经历了很多事
1584	and sometimes it's really luck	有时真的很幸运
1585	more than your knowledge or prediction.	不只是你的知识或预测
1586	For example, I left Lehman Brothers	比如我离开了雷曼兄弟
1587	after serving there for almost 10 years in 2006	2006年在那里工作了将近10年
1588	when I lived in Silicon Valley.	我住在硅谷的时候
1589	I had all my, you know, I already in Lehman stock.	我所有的,你知道,我已经 在雷曼股票。
1590	So that's when our family decided to move back to China.	于是我们一家决定搬回中国.
1591	So I sold all my Lehman stock at 85.	所以我把雷曼的股票都卖到85了
1592	Wow.	珃
1593	I sold my house in Manor Park.	我在庄园把房子卖了
1594	And then we all moved back	然后我们都搬回来了
1595	and I joined the great firm of JP Morgan	我加入了伟大的JP摩根公司
1596	when Jamie Dimon just joined.	杰米·迪蒙刚加入的时候
1597	And I had no expectations of what was going to happen	没想到会发生什么
1598	in the next few years to the housing market in the US	未来几年美国住房市场
1599	or Lehman Brothers or many of my old friends	或雷曼兄弟或我很多老朋友
1600	in Silicon Valley, right?	在硅谷,对不对?
1601	So was I a visionary, right?	所以我是个有远见的人,对吧?
1602	Was I an economist as it's predicted, right?	我是经济学家吗?
1603	Maybe, maybe I should be becoming one.	也许,也许我应该成为一个。
1604	Yeah, so not everything is under our control	是啊,所以不是一切都在我们控制之下
1605	but if you find your passion and you're interested	但是如果你发现你的激情,你感兴趣
1606	in do something you enjoy,	做你喜欢的事,
1607	at least, you know, you feel good about yourself, right?	至少,你知道, 你感觉很好自己,对不对?
1608	So coming back to positive psychology.	所以回到积极的心理学。
1609	I was telling my daughters,	我告诉我的女儿,
1610	one is a high school student graduating in a couple of months.	一个是几个月后毕业的高中生
1611	The other one is freshman at Yale.	另一个是耶鲁大学的新生.
1612	A younger one will join her.	一个年轻的会加入她。
1613	So like Shirley, I have two daughters	就像雪莉,我有两个女儿
1614	are connected to the Yale family.	和耶鲁家族有关
1615	I told them after these two years,	我告诉他们在这两年之后
1616	saying that the killer skills in the future	说杀手的技能在未来
1617	is one, your immunity.	就是你的豁免权
1618	Because if you're strong, you have really good immunity.	因为如果你很强壮,你的免疫力就很好
1619	COVID不重要,对吧?
1620	So this is something you can work on.	所以,这是你可以做的。
1621	You have control.	你有控制权。
1622	You exercise, you eat well, you rest well, right?	你锻炼,吃得好,休息好,对不对?
1623	You can have control.	你可以有控制权。
1624	You can work on it.	你可以继续工作
1625	And that's critical.	这很关键
1626	And two is really adaptability.	二是真正的适应能力。
1627	The world definitely will change.	世界一定会改变的
1628	We don't know where it will change to.	我们不知道它会变成什么样
1629	Beauty or adaptability.	美丽或适应性。
1630	And that can also be trained by having empathy	也可以通过同情来训练
1631	and understanding other people.	并了解别人。
1632	Having the ability to see things	有能力看东西
1633	from different perspectives.	从不同的角度。
1634	And this world really need that.	这个世界真的需要它。
1635	Now, particularly, and really have the ability	现在,特别是,而且真的有这个能力
1636	to stay curious, stay hungry, not physically hungry.	保持好奇,保持饥饿,而不是身体饥饿。
1637	To be able to learn things, to learn new things.	以能学物,以学新物.
1638	And when you have setbacks, have failure,	当你遇到挫折,失败,
1639	you can get up faster.	你可以快点起来。
1640	And that's ability you can learn.	这就是你能学习的能力。
1641	So if you build these muscles, muscle memories,	所以如果你建立了这些肌肉,肌肉记忆,
1642	when you're young, as high school kids,	当你年轻, 作为高中的孩子,
1643	the future is bright for you.	未来对你来说是光明的。
1644	And a lot more people will fall.	还会有更多的人倒下
1645	And you'll be ahead.	你会领先的
1646	Thank you.	谢谢
1647	Good.	不错
1648	Thank you so much.	非常感谢
1649	You're welcome.	不用谢
1650	Anything else to add?	还有什么要补充的吗?
1651	So I want to correct one thing for Sally.	所以我想为莎莉纠正一件事
1652	So all the recessions are manmade.	所以所有的衰退都是人为的。
1653	Because animals, they don't have recessions.	因为动物没有衰退
1654	And probably another thing is, just to remind me,	可能还有一件事 就是提醒我
1655	it's so hard to predict anything.	很难预测任何事
1656	Like Charlie Munger said,	就像查理·蒙格说的
1657	if you really want to have some opinion,	如果你真的想 有意见,
1658	you can only have some opinion	你只能有意见
1659	unless you have a very strong counter-argument.	除非你有很强的反驳
1660	So otherwise, you don't have that opinion.	否则,你没有这种看法。
1661	So I guess that's, you draw yourself as a high schooler,	所以我猜,你画自己 作为一个高中生,
1662	I think that's probably more interesting	我觉得这样比较有趣
1663	than predicting the recession around us.	而不是预测我们的衰退。
1664	Okay, thank you.	好的 谢谢
1665	All right, thank you so much.	好吧,非常感谢。
1666	Okay, question there.	好吧,问题在那里。
1667	Yep.	对
1668	Thank you very much.	谢谢
1669	Actually, I brought another high schooler here,	其实,我带来了另一个高中生在这里,
1670	which is my daughter.	这是我女儿。
1671	And the reason is that I want to ask one question	原因是我想问一个问题
1672	which is a little bit too positive.	这有点太积极了
1673	But I wanted to say, I see a lot of hope	但我想说,我看到了很多希望
1674	from the next generation like these kids.	下一代的孩子
1675	So I was hoping among our daughters and sons,	所以我希望我们的女儿和儿子
1676	is there anything that as MBAs	作为 MBA , 是否有什么
1677	or someone who has economic background	或有经济背景的人
1678	that we can do for them?	我们可以为他们做?
1679	Because we did a very little research for Ukraine War	因为我们为乌克兰战争做了一点研究
1680	and see what are some good elements	看看什么是好东西
1681	that we can do for the world	我们能为世界做的一切
1682	and what we can see is actually kind.	我们所看到的其实是善良的。
1683	So that lady from Ukraine, from the Russian banker,	那个来自乌克兰的女士 俄罗斯银行家
1684	the bank side, actually saved their lives.	银行方面,实际上救了他们的生命。
1685	So is there anything that as economists	作为经济学家,还有什么吗?
1686	or someone who work in this area	或从事这方面工作的人
1687	that we can do for the next generation,	我们可以为下一代做,
1688	maybe we can help them to save their future	也许我们能帮助他们拯救未来
1689	or to make their future even better?	还是让他们的未来更加美好?
1690	That's my question.	这是我的问题。
1691	Or for year-olders, year-old graduates or alumni,	或对年老,年老毕业生或校友,
1692	only your specific suggestion they can give us	只有你的具体建议,他们可以给我们
1693	mother or father to help the next generation	父母帮助下一代
1694	for her future.	为了她的未来
1695	Okay, I try to rephrase your question.	好吧,我试着重述你的问题。
1696	So what can we tell our daughters and sons?	那么,我们如何告诉我们的女儿和儿子?
1697	How can we make the world better?	我们如何使世界更美好?
1698	Is that the question?	这就是问题所在吗?
1699	The question actually bases on,	这个问题实际上基于,
1700	actually I think at this point,	其实我觉得此时此刻
1701	economists, unlike the history,	经济学家,不同于历史
1702	we can do something, probably,	我们可以做点什么,也许,
1703	to make the world a little bit better.	让世界变得更好
1704	Or for the basics, it's brighter than before.	或为基础,比前明.
1705	I still don't know whether I answered that very clearly.	我还是不知道我是否回答得很清楚
1706	So can you maybe say that in Chinese?	那你可以用中文这么说吗?
1707	I can't.	我没办法
1708	So if you're looking to the trading numbers,	如果你在看交易号码
1709	it's not too bad at this point.	现在还不错
1710	To China, to Ukraine, to Russia,	对中国、乌克兰、俄罗斯
1711	it's not too bad, for US even, right?	这对美国来说也不算太糟 对吧?
1712	So,	这么说
1713	it's just the basics, and it's just like buildings.	它只是基础, 它就像建筑。
1714	I feel that it's slowly changing.	我觉得它正在慢慢改变。
1715	In this slowly changing, decentralized society,	在这个缓慢变化,分散化的社会,
1716	maybe economists, or in the area of MBA,	也许是经济学家,或者在MBA领域,
1717	as people-to-people exchanges,	作为人民之间的交流,
1718	the work we can do is better than	我们能做的比
1719	normal public exchanges,	正常的公众交流,
1720	or normal boundaries between countries.	或国家间的正常边界。
1721	We'll have people like Jim Rogers,	我们会有像吉姆·罗杰斯这样的人
1722	we'll have our own side.	我们会有自己的一面。
1723	We might be able to do more work from a civil perspective,	我们也许可以从公民的角度做更多的工作,
1724	just like they have curiosity.	就像他们有好奇心
1725	So the question is, how can we, through trade,	所以问题是 我们如何通过贸易
1726	We can, what can we do?	我们可以,我们能做什么?
1727	We can do something.	我们可以做点什么。
1728	Yes, we can do something, what can we do?	是的,我们可以做些什么,我们能做什么?
1729	I understand.	我理解,我懂你说什么
1730	So what can we do as a non-government people	那么,作为非政府人士,我们该怎么办?
1731	to contribute to the globalization?	· 促进全球化?
1732	I think I would just teach my child to be kind,	我想我会教我的孩子好一点
1733	to be open-minded,	以开明的态度,
1734	to be, you know, to pick up a skill	要成为,你知道, 拿起技能
1735	where he or she can see himself or herself.	在那里,他或她可以看到自己。
1736	I think that is already a contribution	我认为这已经是一个贡献
1737	to the government community.	给政府社区。
1738	I think as overseas students,	我想作为海外学生
1739	and most of us here today have the experience	今天我们这里的大多数人都有经验
1740	working or studying in the overseas countries,	在海外工作或学习,
1741	I think it's us, we may have the one more responsibility	我想是我们,我们也许还有另一个责任
1742	that to tell more people the truth,	为了告诉更多的人真相,
1743	the truth in mind, in our minds, to the people in China.	我们心中的真理 对中国人民来说
1744	And to, because most of the Chinese people,	并且,因为大多数中国人,
1745	they've never been in the overseas country.	他们从没去过海外
1746	And also for the young kids,	对于孩子们来说
1747	I think I hope that they have the independent thinking,	我希望他们能独立思考
1748	not only to be open-minded,	不只是为了开明,
1749	but the most important is you should have your own mind.	但最重要的是你应该有自己的想法。
1750	You should think for yourself.	你应该为自己想想
1751	Do not order to listen to your parents or listen to us,	你不要听从父母的命令,不要听从我们的命令,
1752	or listen to the radio or something else.	或者听收音机或其他东西。
1753	So this is, I think, a very important point.	我认为,这是一个非常重要的问题。
1754	If you have your own minds, you will be not closed.	如果你有你自己的想法, 你将不会关闭。
1755	You will be listening to others.	你会听别人的
1756	Then there will be very important for the people	那对人民来说很重要
1757	and the non-political people like us,	以及我们这样的非政治人物,
1758	that we have the willingness to talk with others.	我们愿意与其他人交谈。
1759	Yeah, I actually wrote a letter to my daughters.	是的,我写了一封信给我的女儿。
1760	January 1st, this year.	今年1月1号
1761	I forgot what I wrote, so I was looking for it.	我忘了我写的 所以我在找它
1762	So I did write to them,	所以我写了信给他们
1763	because the younger one is turning 18 this year as well,	因为今年的年轻人也快满18岁了
1764	so it's my gift to them,	所以这是我给他们的礼物,
1765	成人 gift.	~ 礼物.
1766	So the first one I said is	所以第一个我说
1767	学会放下,有舍,才有德.
1768	Because we are in a time, you have to give up something,	因为我们到了时间 你必须放弃一些东西
1769	but sometimes when you give up something,	但有时当你放弃一些东西,
1770	that's only when you give up something,	当你放弃了某些东西时
1771	you gain something.	你得到的东西。
1772	{\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}在年轻的时候 {\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}
1773	And the second one I wrote is	我写的第二个是
1774	leave the moment.	离开这一刻。
1775		我在当下,专注眼前。
1776	Because our generation have been too busy	因为我们这代人太忙了
1777	achieving our goals, our career,	实现我们的目标,我们的事业,
1778	and all this commonly viewed success.	以及所有这些普遍认为的成功。
1779	But younger generation, if they can learn to live the moment,	但是年轻一代,如果他们能学会活在那一刻,
1780	enjoy the moment.	享受这一刻
1781	There's always something beautiful in simple life.	简单生活中总是有美好的东西.
1782	So each of the moment and life could be beautiful.	所以每个瞬间和生命都可能是美丽的。
1783	And then third one is actually	第三个其实是
1784		珍惜关系,感恩缘分。
1785	Value the relationship you have	重视你的关系
1786	and the encounter you have with people,	与众人相遇,
1787	and all this will bring something good.	这一切都会带来一些好东西。
1788	Like by coming to this session, this young guy,	就像来到这个会议, 这个年轻人,
1789	maybe he'll end up a you someday.	也许他有一天会变成你
1790	So really value all the moment,	所以真正珍惜时刻
1791	your interactions with people come to your life,	你与人的互动 来到你的生活,
1792	whether or not the relationship is long or short,	无论关系是长还是短,
1793	but that have to have some impact in your life	但是这对你的生活有一定影响
1794	and value that and be grateful	并珍惜和感激
1795	of the great things that happen to you	发生在你身上的大事
1796	because that could just be luck,	因为那只是运气,
1797	like me leaving Lehman at the right time.	像我在合适的时间离开雷曼
1798	And the last one, or the next one,	和最后一个,或下一个,
1799	is understanding different perspective	是理解不同的视角
1800	and embrace different views.	并接受不同的观点。
1801		理解不同视角,包容不同理念。
1802	Because this time probably is really	因为这次可能是真的
1803	in the history of our past few decades	我们过去几十年的历史
1804	that we're seeing different opinions	我们看到不同的意见
1805	within different countries.	在不同国家。
1806	It's actually not just China.	其实不只是中国
1807	We're here, we think all this is happening.	我们在这里,我们认为这一切正在发生。
1808	But if you look at what's happening in Europe,	但是如果你看看欧洲发生了什么
1809	each of the countries in Europe,	每一个欧洲国家,
1810	what's happening in US, it's very divided.	在美国发生的事情, 是非常分裂的。
1811	And a lot of historical issues	还有很多历史问题
1812	all accumulated to this point.	所有积至此.
1813	So more than ever we need to have	我们比以往更需要
1814	everyone understanding each other,	每个人都互相理解,
1815	even at each of the homes in the US	即使在美国的每个家庭
1816	when there's the Trump time	当有川普的时间
1817	and their husband and wife don't talk to each other.	他们的夫妻互不说话。
1818	And here we have all these WeChat groups.	在这里,我们有所有这些 WeChat 组。
1819	Every point you have divided view.	你所分裂的每一个观点。
1820	So it's not just happening to us.	所以这不仅仅是发生在我们身上。
1821	It's happening everywhere.	随处发生.
1822	So we do need to understand from different perspective	所以我们需要从不同的角度来理解
1823	why people, there's a reason everyone think the way they do.	为什么人们,有原因 每个人都想他们的方式。
1824	But understand why they understand that way.	但理解他们为什么这样理解
1825	So respect, have basic trust and respect of other people.	因此,尊重、信任和尊重他人。
1826	And last one is really be yourself	最后一个是真正的你自己
1827	and keep that integrity and authenticity.	保持正直和真实
1828	做自己保持真实真诚.
1829	I think the last thing we want	我想我们最不想做的事
1830	is our kids lose that basic honesty and integrity	我们的孩子失去了基本的诚实和正直
1831	and growing up learning to lie	学会说谎
1832	and just say things others want them to say,	只要说些别人想说的话
1833	respect them to say.	尊重他们的话。
1834	I think if they, our generation fought hard	我想,如果他们, 我们这一代人艰苦奋斗
1835	to find our own voice	找到我们自己的声音
1836	and we're hoping our children will be better.	我们希望我们的孩子会更好。
1837	I mean, they are living in a better environment	我的意思是,他们生活在一个更好的环境
1838	materially, but we really hope	物质上,但我们真的希望
1839	they keep all the gains from our generation	他们保留了我们这代人的所有收益
1840	and be better person.	做个更好的人
1841	And if each one of us, as Shirley said,	如果我们每个人都像雪莉说的
1842	we can live well, be a kind person,	我们可以好好生活 做个好人
1843	I think the world will be better	我觉得世界会更好
1844	and we all can contribute to that.	我们都可以为此作出贡献。
1845	Well said.	说得好
1846	Yeah, thank you.	谢谢
1847	See I wrote it but I forgot.	看是我写的 但我忘了
1848	Thank you.	谢谢
1849	Oh, that's.	哦,这是。
1850	So, okay, this one.	所以,好吧,这个。
1851	Okay, last question, okay.	好吧,最后一个问题,好吧。
1852	Go ahead.	来吧。
1853	Okay.	摆
1854	Okay, so first I want to express my gratitude	好吧,所以首先我想表达我的感谢
1855	for what you teach about	你们所学的,
1856	and second may ask in Chinese	第二可以问中文
1857	so that I can express myself well.	那样我才能表达出自己
1858	Okay, go ahead.	好吧,继续。
1859	I have a question.	我有个问题
1860	Don't worry.	别担心
1861	No, I'm a freshman, yeah.	不,我是一个新生,是的。
1862	Okay, okay.	好,好,好,我们走
1863	Okay.	摆
1864	So my first question is	所以我的第一个问题是
1865	when I entered the university,	当我进入大学,
1866	especially since the pandemic,	特别是自从大流行以来
1867	since the beginning of this year,	从今年初起
1868	we've been through so many things	我们经历了这么多事
1869	and I found that these things	我发现这些东西
1870	were destroying the world views	摧毁了世界观
1871	that I've been teaching for 12 years.	我教书12年了
1872	And at the same time, how do I say this?	同时,我该怎么说呢?
1873	What are you saying?	你说什么?
1874	What are you teaching?	你在教什麽?
1875	These things that are happening,	这些事情正在发生,
1876	when I saw these things on Weibo,	当我在微博上看到这些东西时
1877	these things from the media	媒体的这些东西
1878	and from the internet,	在互联网上
1879	例如,从Twitter或Facebook上,
1880	when they have an impact on my thinking,	当它们影响我的思考时,
1881	how do I integrate them into my thinking?	我如何把他们融入我的思维?
1882	I want to know what is objective	我想知道什么是客观的
1883	and what is something that the party	和什么是东西 党
1884	let me know.	告诉我
1885	Something.	东西。
1886	Okay.	摆
1887	I will have to translate.	我必须翻译。
1888	Okay, so the second question is the last one.	好吧,所以第二个问题是最后一个问题。
1889	Okay, I will translate for everyone.	好吧,我会为大家翻译。
1890	Thank you, thank you.	谢谢,谢谢。
1891	You sit down.	你坐下来。
1892	I'll come back.	我会回来的。
1893	Thank you, thank you, thank you.	谢谢,谢谢,谢谢
1894	So first.	所以先说.
1895	Well.	这个嘛
1896	Oh, I heard the question.	哦,我听到了这个问题。
1897	So I'm going to translate.	所以我要翻译。
1898	So when you as a college student, freshman,	所以当你作为一个大学生,大一,
1899	you see what happened in the past 12 years.	你看过去12年里发生了什么
1900	Sorry.	对不起
1901	Past several months.	过去几个月
1902	That's destroyed your belief	这毁了你的信仰
1903	in the 12 years you had in school.	在你上学的12年里
1904	Actually, where did you have your education?	实际上,你在哪里接受教育的?
1905	That's a relevant question before I was saying.	在我说之前,这是一个相关的问题。
1906	Okay, yeah.	好吧,没错。
1907	In China?	在中国?
1908	Yeah, I actually needed 12 years.	是的,我实际上需要12年。
1909	Where did you?	你从哪儿来的?
1910	Yeah.	对
1911	But you grew up in China?	但你在中国长大了?
1912	You grew up in China?	你在中国长大?
1913	Yeah.	对
1914	And you're going to college, where?	你要上大学,在哪里?
1915	Qinghua University.	清华大学.
1916	Okay.	摆
1917	That's relevant.	这是相关的。
1918	That's relevant because where you're from	这是相关的,因为你来自哪里
1919	is relevant to how you see things.	和你对事物的看法有关
1920	Yeah.	对
1921	So you see different things on different medias	所以你在不同的媒体上看到不同的东西
1922	and you don't know what to believe	你不知道该相信什么
1923	and what other people try to make you believe.	还有别人让你相信的
1924	And how do you reconcile this with yourself?	你怎么调和这件事?
1925	I think it's back to Sally's question.	我想这是回到莎莉的问题。
1926	Oh, mental health.	哦,精神卫生。
1927	Which is a very important question, right?	一个非常重要的问题,对吧?
1928	So, I don't know who wants to start first.	所以,我不知道谁想先开始。
1929	Shirley is more experienced than I am.	雪莉比我更有经验
1930	Okay, Shirley.	好吧,谢莉。
1931	Okay, everybody's looking at you, Shirley.	好吧,每个人都在看你,雪莉。
1932	Yeah, Shirley is a little bit doubtful.	是啊,雪莉有点怀疑。
1933	I was trying to avoid this kind of question today.	我今天想回避这种问题
1934	Okay.	摆
1935	I think it's a really tough one to answer right now,	我觉得现在回答这个问题很困难
1936	sitting where I am.	坐在我这里。
1937	I am sitting where I am from,	我坐在我来自的地方,
1938	the person who's asking this,	问这个的人,
1939	because I think most of us probably need	因为我认为我们大部分人可能需要
1940	a lot of counseling at this stage,	在这个阶段有很多咨询
1941	with what's been going on.	和一直以来发生的一切。
1942	I think, I don't know what he's trying to get at, right?	我不知道他想说什么,对吧?
1943	I guess you do have options.	我想你确实有选择
1944	If you're an investor, right, like us,	如果你是投资人 就像我们一样
1945	capital always seek safe haven, so to speak.	可以说,资本总是寻求安全避难所。
1946	So that's why the hedge fund guys are gone.	所以对冲基金的人才走了
1947	But the buy side people are still waiting to see	但买家还等着看呢
1948	how bad that can get, because it's very costly to sell it.	那会有多糟 因为卖掉它成本很高
1949	For us, I think that if we invest along the lines,	对我们来说,我认为如果我们投资的方向,
1950	the government wants us to support the AI,	政府要我们支持AI
1951	support robotics, to help build China's tech power,	支持机器人,帮助建设中国的技术力量,
1952	temporarily we're fine.	暂时没事
1953	But we do want to seek legal protection	但我们确实想寻求法律保护
1954	when your money is invested.	当你的钱被投资。
1955	It doesn't matter whose money it is,	不管是谁的钱,
1956	it's from your own pocket or your EMPs.	是从你的口袋或电磁脉冲
1957	So there are some questions that we have to deal with,	因此,有一些问题 我们必须处理,
1958	regardless of how you feel psychologically.	不管你的心理感觉如何
1959	So I think one thing that's helpful is	所以我认为有一点是有用的
1960	maybe it's a learning process, right?	也许这是一个学习的过程,对不对?
1961	For a lot of us who grew up in a rather prosperous	对于很多在相当繁荣中长大的人来说
1962	economic cycle, again, we'll go back to the cycle thing,	经济周期,再次, 我们将回到循环的事情,
1963	then I think that we have not been prepared	那么我想我们还没有准备好
1964	for what's happening now.	现在发生的事
1965	We could head into, you know,	我们可以去,你知道,
1966	as some people are saying,	正如有些人所说,
1967	who actually said that the Chinese social academy	他居然说中国社会学院
1968	forecasted 6.8% GDP growth in China,	预测中国国内生产总值增长6.8%,
1969	and we got good growth in reach out circles.	我们得到了良好的增长 伸展圈。
1970	But then, in the meantime,	但与此同时,
1971	our reach out gets deleted here from China,	我们的联络被删除 从中国这里,
1972	every other hour.	每隔一小时
1973	And so you need to, I think that you need to	所以你需要,我认为你需要
1974	have a very balanced view of what's going on.	以非常平衡的眼光看待这是怎么回事。
1975	And then, as I said, keep it open mind.	然后,正如我说的,保持开放的心态。
1976	And I do think that everyone has an option.	我认为每个人都有选择
1977	I think that everybody around here,	我想这里的每一个人,
1978	especially our panelists, including myself,	特别是我们的小组成员,包括我
1979	we all love this country.	我们都爱这个国家
1980	I was born here.	我出生在这里。
1981	I went to the States early, but very lucky.	我早点去美国,但很幸运
1982	Worked on Wall Street, then developed money, you know,	在华尔街工作, 然后开发的钱,你知道,
1983	and came back here, and my kids, you know,	回到这里,我的孩子,你知道,
1984	went to the best schools, got the best education.	去最好的学校, 得到了最好的教育。
1985	I consider myself very lucky.	我觉得自己很幸运
1986	I've been very thankful,	我很感激你们
1987	and really appreciate the opportunity I got.	并真的感谢 机会我得到了。
1988	But in the meantime, since two of the youngsters,	但与此同时,由于两个年轻人,
1989	you know, high schoolers, or their mother,	你知道,高中生,或者他们的母亲,
1990	asked a question, I'm too worried about my kids.	问了一个问题,我太担心我的孩子了。
1991	I think that they are doing great in the US,	我认为他们在美国做得很好,
1992	but I would have wanted them to have the opportunity	但我本希望他们有机会
1993	our generation had.	我们这代人有过
1994	I was talking to a friend who was running	我在和一个跑步的朋友说话
1995	one of the biggest American tech companies in China,	中国最大的美国科技公司之一
1996	and he's had a great run for 20 years.	20年来他一直很出色
1997	So he was in quarantine, so I asked him,	他被隔离了 所以我问他
1998	I said, Joe, how's it going with the family,	我说,乔,你家人怎么样?
1999	since you just came back?	自从你刚回来?
2000	A lot of people are trying to leave.	很多人都想离开
2001	So he said, you know, because he's in the chip productions,	他说,你知道, 因为他在芯片生产,
2002	one of the largest chip companies, I don't want to name it.	最大的芯片公司之一, 我不想命名它。
2003	So he said the Chinese government	所以他说中国政府
2004	has been treating him very well.	一直对他很好
2005	But then we ended on a note that he worries about his kids	但后来我们结束了一个字 他担心他的孩子
2006	and not getting the opportunity that we got.	却得不到我们的机会
2007	So I said to him, I said, you know what,	所以我跟他说,我说,你知道吗,
2008	sometimes maybe we just need to adjust our expectations,	有时候也许我们只需要调整我们的期望,
2009	just like our younger generation	就像我们年轻一代一样
2010	need to adjust their expectations.	需要调整他们的预期。
2011	Appreciate what you have now, and then adjust your goals.	感谢你现在的帮助,然后调整你的目标。
2012	If you don't like what's happening, get out.	如果你不喜欢发生的事情,就出去。
2013	If you think you can stay and still build a great life,	如果你认为你可以留下来 继续创造美好的生活
2014	you know, with your family,	你知道,与你的家人,
2015	and continue to do something that's meaningful,	继续做有意义的事,
2016	like we said, on the healthcare side,	就像我们说过的 在医疗方面
2017	you know, on the environmental protection side,	在环保方面
2018	maybe you still have a great opportunity to stay	或许你还有机会留下来
2019	and just wait it out or fight it out.	等待它出来或战斗出来。
2020	I think there's no certain answer.	我认为没有确切的答案。
2021	There's no right or wrong.	无对无对.
2022	It's about a choice.	这是关于一个选择。
2023	And I do think most of us here have a choice.	我认为我们这里大多数人都有选择
2024	Thank you.	谢谢
2025	I'll just add a couple of words.	我略加数句.
2026	Not just young people who get disillusioned,	不光是失去幻想的年轻人
2027	get frustrated, and I think a lot of older people	沮丧,我觉得很多老年人
2028	in their 30s, 40s, and they shout on the WeChat,	他们在三四十岁的时候,喊叫着《韦查特》,
2029	and they fight even with each other.	他们互相争吵
2030	So it's not just, you know, the young people get frustrated,	所以,不只是,你知道, 年轻人感到沮丧,
2031	and my advice is try to keep calm.	我的建议是保持冷静
2032	And you know there are people who are	你知道有些人是
2033	in the same situation as you are.	和你一样
2034	Well, in my younger years, we act out,	在我年轻的时候 我们演戏
2035	act it out, but in this time of, or in this society,	行动起来,但在这个时代或在这个社会,
2036	keep calm and observe the things that happen around you.	保持冷静 观察你身边发生的事情
2037	And you know, maybe talk to your parents,	你知道,也许和你父母谈谈,
2038	and they love you, and they have more experience than you.	他们爱你 他们比你更有经验
2039	Again, some advice, and it's just not young people there.	再次,一些建议, 它只是不是年轻人在那里。
2040	And you know what Sami was saying was very true.	你知道萨米说的是真的。
2041	There are some simple principles in life,	生活中有一些简单的原则,
2042	especially in this turbulent time.	特别是在这个动荡的时期
2043	You know, observe some simple truths, simple rules,	你知道,遵守一些简单的真理, 简单的规则,
2044	and keep your integrity, keep your mental curiosity,	保持你的正直 保持你的精神好奇心
2045	observe this society.	观察这个社会。
2046	That's the hope, young people are hope for this society.	这就是希望,年轻人是这个社会的希望.
2047	Yeah, I think what you're experiencing	是的,我想你正在经历
2048	is not just in China.	不只是在中国
2049	I mean, if you look at US, if you look at how biased	我的意思是,如果你看美国, 如果你看多偏颇
2050	some media could be, I'm sure young kids in the US	一些媒体可能是, 我相信年轻的孩子在美国
2051	are also fighting the same kind of challenges.	同时也在应对同样的挑战。
2052	What do we believe?	我们相信什么?
2053	But I think fundamentally, if you believe	但我认为根本上,如果你相信
2054	everyone, every organization has its own perspective,	各位,每个组织都有自己的观点,
2055	because we are all different, right?	因为我们都是不同的,对吧?
2056	You and I are different, you and that high school kid	你和我不一样 你和那个高中生
2057	is different because you come from different culture,	不同是因为你来自不同的文化
2058	different family, different background.	不同的家庭,不同的背景。
2059	So seeing the world differently is natural, right?	所以,看世界的不同是自然的,对不对?
2060	So don't assume whatever you see is the truth,	所以不要假设你所看到的都是事实
2061	or is the whole truth.	或者说整个事实
2062	What is education?	什么是教育?
2063	It's actually training us to explore, give us tools	其实是训练我们探索,给我们工具
2064	to explore the truth, because we don't know the truth.	探索真相,因为我们不知道真相。
2065	It's like Yale's model, right?	这就像耶鲁的模型,对不对?
2066	We are pursuing truth, because we can't assume	我们追求真理,因为我们不能假设
2067	what we're told is truth.	我们被告知的是事实。
2068	So this is global concept, right?	这就是全球概念 对吧?
2069	Assume whatever you see is not the truth.	假设你看到的不是事实
2070	So what is the truth?	事实是什么?
2071	That's your job to see, right?	这就是你的任务,对不对?
2072	So I think this is global for children,	所以,我认为这是全球性的儿童,
2073	for young people globally.	面向全球青年。
2074	We're all facing similar challenges,	我们都面临着类似的挑战,
2075	different scale, different scope.	尺度不同,范围不同。
2076	So it's not unusual.	故无常.
2077	It's not just to Chinese this time of life,	不仅仅是中国人生命的这一刻
2078	but it globally is a cycle, right?	但它是一个循环,对不对?
2079	So keep your independent view and curiosity	所以,保持你的独立观点和好奇心
2080	and explore the truth.	并探索真相。
2081	And also, who is to define the truth,	而且,谁要定义真相,
2082	by the end of the day, right?	最终,对不对?
2083	It's a path.	谓之道.
2084	We are on the path to pursue the truth.	我们正在寻找真相。
2085	We may never find the truth, but just being on that path,	我们可能永远也找不到真相 但只是沿着这条路走
2086	I think, keep you going, yeah.	我想,让你继续,是的。
2087	Okay, thank you.	好的 谢谢
2088	I want to say one word to you,	我想跟你说一句
2089	that is welcome to the real world.	这是对现实世界的欢迎。
2090	If you laugh, then your 12 years belief has been destroyed	如果你笑了,那你十二年的信仰就毁了
2091	because you lived in the fake world	因为你生活在假世界
2092	in the past 12 years.	过去12年里
2093	In the past 12 years, teachers or your parents	过去12年里,老师或父母
2094	tell you everything is true or false.	告诉你一切是真实的还是虚假的。
2095	In the real world, there is no truth or false.	于真实境界无有真伪.
2096	So nobody can figure you out, you have to find your way by yourself.	所以没人能发现你 你得自己想办法
2097	I don't have any other things to add beyond the study of Sherry said.	我除了舍利说的研究之外没有其他东西可以补充.
2098	I asked Sherry to share that letter to me, I want to share it with my kids.	我让雪莉和我分享那封信 我想和我的孩子分享
2099	But one thing I would say, if we look back into the history, in the last 70 years, there is no war we have experienced.	但是,如果回顾历史,我想说,在过去70年里,我们没有经历过战争。
2100	And in the last 40 years, we have experienced the most successful economic growth in the history.	在过去40年里,我们经历了历史上最成功的经济增长。
2101	So our generation is the luckiest generation in Chinese history.	因此,我们这一代是中国历史上最幸运的一代.
2102	But this is not normal, this is abnormal.	但这是不正常的,这是不正常的。
2103	If you go back to China's Chinese history, such kind of peaceful and prosperous growth is not normal.	回溯中国的中国历史,这种和平繁荣的增长是不正常的.
2104	So we need to back to our normal, like there are some turbulence, there are some uncertainties.	所以我们需要回到正常状态, 就像有些动荡,有些不确定。
2105	We need to face that.	我们需要面对这一点。
2106	And I think you, I just suggest you just follow those principles to face those uncertainties, to make the right choice.	我认为你,我只是建议你遵循这些原则 来面对这些不确定因素,做出正确的选择。
2107	But you need to say, this is our lucky life, our lucky time may be going to end.	但你得说 这是我们的幸运生活 我们的幸运时间可能会结束
2108	So this is reality.	这就是现实。
2109	If you live long enough, if you live long enough, you won't experience that.	如果你活得够久的话,如果你活得够久的话,你就不会经历这个.
2110	We are still here, if we are lucky, we are still here.	我们仍然在这里,如果我们是幸运的,我们仍然在这里。
2111	So some final words from me, I think you realize you are not alone.	所以,我有些最后的话, 我想你意识到你不是孤独的。
2112	People here are all suffering from that.	这儿的人都因此受苦。
2113	Everybody is suffering from that, so don't feel strange, actually feel lucky.	每个人都在受苦, 所以不要觉得奇怪, 实际上感觉幸运。
2114	Because I didn't realize what you realized until I went to Yale.	因为我直到去耶鲁大学才意识到你所意识到的
2115	I found something that I truly believed that wasn't true in history class.	我发现一些我真正相信的东西 在历史课上是不是真的。
2116	So in many other discussions in law school.	在法学院的很多其他讨论中
2117	So feel normal about that, because that's the start of growing up.	所以觉得正常, 因为这就是成长的开始。
2118	Maybe one practical tip, right, if you're really feeling bad.	也许有个实用的提示,对吗,如果你真的觉得不好。
2119	I did take some positive psychology courses at Professor Peng's class at Tsinghua three years ago.	我三年前在清华的彭教授班上确实修了一些积极的心理学课程.
2120	Perfect timing to prepare me for COVID.	准备好参加COVID的时机正好
2121	But I think one really easy to exercise is three good things every day.	但我认为每天有三件好事 很容易锻炼
2122	So every day before you go to bed, think about three, these three were three good things that happened to you today.	所以每天睡觉前,想想三件,这三件是今天发生在你身上的三件好事.
2123	If you want to, it's also good to write it down.	欲得之,亦宜写之.
2124	Yeah, like attending a session.	是啊,就像参加一个会议。
2125	Yeah, yeah.	对 对
2126	You have five good things today, right?	你今天有五件好事 对吧?
2127	So write it down every day.	故每日写下.
2128	If you do that for maybe three weeks consecutively, like quarantine 21 days.	如果你连续3个星期这样做, 像隔离21天。
2129	It may become part of your subconsciousness and you start to think positively.	它可能会成为你潜意识的一部分 你开始积极思考
2130	So before you go to bed every day, you think of three great things and then you have good dreams.	所以在每天睡觉之前,你会想到三件伟大的事情,然后做个好梦.
2131	You'll be fresh the next day.	你第二天会很新鲜的
2132	And then write down before the next day, three good things.	后于次日前记三善.
2133	I'm sure you can find three good things, right?	我相信你能找到三件好事 对吧?
2134	Or longer.	或更长.
2135	But either way, writing, have a notebook, write down, and then you keep writing it.	但无论哪种方式,写,有一个笔记本,写下来, 然后你继续写。
2136	And then you start thinking more things.	然后你开始思考更多的事情。
2137	You start to take in more positive, right?	你开始接受 更积极的,对不对?
2138	Those news, I think about there's AI push.	这些消息,我想有AI推。
2139	If you don't read the negative ones, you don't want to read, it doesn't come to you anymore, right?	如果你不读负面的, 你不希望阅读, 它不来到你了,对不对?
2140	You do have some control on what information you take.	你确实能控制你得到的信息
2141	So at least get through every day in a tough time.	所以至少每天在艰难的时刻度过
2142	Practice three good things every day.	每日修习三善.
2143	So I mean, that's a good thing coming out of today, right?	所以,我的意思是,这是一个好消息 今天出来,对不对?
2144	Thank you so much.	非常感谢
2145	I think it's to keep this confusion period as long as possible.	我认为这段混乱期应该尽可能地保持下去.
2146	Don't to figure it out so quickly.	别这么快就知道了
2147	Because life should be confused.	因为生活应该被混淆.
2148	Confused will keep you awake and alive and struggle to be a better self.	困惑会让你保持清醒和活着 并努力成为更好的自我
2149	So that's normal because I can give you a very strong proof of that.	所以这是正常的,因为我可以给你一个非常有力的证明。
2150	If you look at the motto of Yale, it was hope, which is light and truth.	如果你看耶鲁的座右铭,那是希望,这是光明和真理。
2151	So basically those two things keep that in mind.	所以基本上这两件事都记住这一点。
2152	Always pursue the truth.	总是追求真理。
2153	Even if the world is filled with lies.	即便世间充满虚妄.
2154	And always think about hope, even in the darkest time.	永远考虑希望,即使在最黑暗的时期。
2155	So that's why it has truth and light.	所以它才有真实和光明
2156	And by the way, Harvard only have truth.	顺便说一句,哈佛只有真理
2157	That's all for today.	今天就到这里吧
2158	Thank you.	谢谢

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