耶鲁大学政治学系教授Gregory Huber探讨“当代美国
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:02 | Good morning everyone from those of you joining from the US and good evening for those of you guys joining from China and hello to everyone else all around the world. | 大家早上好,你们这些从美国来的人 晚上好,你们这些从中国来的人 向全世界其他人问好 |
| 0:13 | Welcome again to another wonderful lecture that we have prepared at Yale Center Beijing. | 再次欢迎来到我们在北京耶鲁中心准备的另一场精彩的讲座。 |
| 0:19 | My name is Devin Lau and I'm the assistant director of Yale Center Beijing, and we'll get started shortly. | 我叫刘德文,我是耶鲁中心北京的助理主任,我们很快就要开始了. |
| 0:24 | I will just give a quick introduction to the center and this event, and then also introduce our speaker today. | 我只想简短地介绍一下中心和这次活动,然后也介绍我们今天的发言者。 |
| 0:32 | So Yale Center Beijing was established in 2014 as a gathering place for leaders from Yale China and the rest of the world to join together as thought leaders to dialogue and to bring the very best that Yale has through professors and alums to share in Chi | 因此耶鲁北京中心成立于2014年,是耶鲁中国和世界其他国家领导人作为思想领袖一起对话的聚集地,并让耶鲁通过教授和校友拥有的极好的在中国共享,所有研究领域,从医学到哲学,从硬科学到音乐都无法更好. |
| 0:54 | Usually our events happen, of course, in the center itself in Beijing, but during this time of a global pandemic which hopefully looks like we're nearing the finish line here. | 当然,我们的事件通常发生在北京市中心, 但在这个全球大流行的时期, 希望我们即将到达终点。 |
| 1:08 | We're not able to meet in person but we are able to host these events, which we've been lucky to do, and we've had just as much if not more engagement than before. | 我们无法亲自见面,但我们能够主持这些活动,我们很幸运能够这样做,而且我们曾经有过比以前更多的接触。 |
| 1:17 | And so we are very glad to have you all here today. | 因此,我们非常高兴你们今天都在这里。 |
| 1:20 | Today is a very special event, because I'm sure if you've been paying attention to the news, there's been a lot going on in the US and yesterday of course was the inauguration of President Joe Biden's first day. | 今天是一个非常特别的事件,因为我相信如果你一直关注这个消息,在美国发生了很多事情,昨天当然是乔·拜登总统的第一天就职典礼. |
| 1:34 | And so today we are able to have Professor Gregory Huber, who is the fourth family professor of political science as well as the chair of the political science department at Yale. | 所以今天,我们能有格雷戈里·胡伯教授,他是第四任家庭政治学教授以及耶鲁大学政治学系主席。 |
展开字幕全文（801 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Good morning everyone from those of you joining from the US and good evening for those of you guys joining from China and hello to everyone else all around the world. | 大家早上好,你们这些从美国来的人 晚上好,你们这些从中国来的人 向全世界其他人问好 |
| 2 | Welcome again to another wonderful lecture that we have prepared at Yale Center Beijing. | 再次欢迎来到我们在北京耶鲁中心准备的另一场精彩的讲座。 |
| 3 | My name is Devin Lau and I'm the assistant director of Yale Center Beijing, and we'll get started shortly. | 我叫刘德文,我是耶鲁中心北京的助理主任,我们很快就要开始了. |
| 4 | I will just give a quick introduction to the center and this event, and then also introduce our speaker today. | 我只想简短地介绍一下中心和这次活动,然后也介绍我们今天的发言者。 |
| 5 | So Yale Center Beijing was established in 2014 as a gathering place for leaders from Yale China and the rest of the world to join together as thought leaders to dialogue and to bring the very best that Yale has through professors and alums to share in Chi | 因此耶鲁北京中心成立于2014年,是耶鲁中国和世界其他国家领导人作为思想领袖一起对话的聚集地,并让耶鲁通过教授和校友拥有的极好的在中国共享,所有研究领域,从医学到哲学,从硬科学到音乐都无法更好. |
| 6 | Usually our events happen, of course, in the center itself in Beijing, but during this time of a global pandemic which hopefully looks like we're nearing the finish line here. | 当然,我们的事件通常发生在北京市中心, 但在这个全球大流行的时期, 希望我们即将到达终点。 |
| 7 | We're not able to meet in person but we are able to host these events, which we've been lucky to do, and we've had just as much if not more engagement than before. | 我们无法亲自见面,但我们能够主持这些活动,我们很幸运能够这样做,而且我们曾经有过比以前更多的接触。 |
| 8 | And so we are very glad to have you all here today. | 因此,我们非常高兴你们今天都在这里。 |
| 9 | Today is a very special event, because I'm sure if you've been paying attention to the news, there's been a lot going on in the US and yesterday of course was the inauguration of President Joe Biden's first day. | 今天是一个非常特别的事件,因为我相信如果你一直关注这个消息,在美国发生了很多事情,昨天当然是乔·拜登总统的第一天就职典礼. |
| 10 | And so today we are able to have Professor Gregory Huber, who is the fourth family professor of political science as well as the chair of the political science department at Yale. | 所以今天,我们能有格雷戈里·胡伯教授,他是第四任家庭政治学教授以及耶鲁大学政治学系主席。 |
| 11 | He's also a resident fellow of the institution for social and policy studies, as well as an associate director for the Center for the Study of American politics, and the founding director of the behavioral research lab. | 他还是社会与政策研究所的常驻研究员,以及美国政治研究中心的副主任,行为研究实验室的创始主任. |
| 12 | So many titles many hats. | 这么多的头衔 很多帽子。 |
| 13 | His research interests happen to be in American politics and political economy, especially focusing on how the interaction among mass public and elites, political institutions and policies explain important incomes. | 他的研究兴趣恰巧在美国政治经济和政治经济方面,尤其注重大众与精英,政治机构和政策之间的互动如何解释重要的收入. |
| 14 | And so he is the perfect person to have today to talk to us about partisan animosity in contemporary America, and whether the US is coming apart at the seams. | 因此,他今天是能够和我们谈论当代美国党派仇恨的完美人选,以及美国是否正在分裂。 |
| 15 | And so without further ado, I want to welcome Professor Huber. | 所以,不用再说了,我想欢迎Huber教授。 |
| 16 | Thank you very, very much. | 非常感谢 |
| 17 | Good morning from here on the East Coast. | 早上从这里到东海岸。 |
| 18 | Let me figure out how to get my PowerPoint started and then I'll just get going. | 让我想想怎么开始我的PowerPoint 然后我就走了 |
| 19 | Right. | 对 |
| 20 | I can't see I said, Devin is my slide up. | 我没看见我说的,德文是我的滑板。 |
| 21 | Yes. | 对 |
| 22 | Perfect. | 不错 |
| 23 | Okay, so let me move this out of the way. | 好吧,让我把这个挪开。 |
| 24 | So, good morning I'm plan to talk for about 20 minutes, and then 20 to 25 minutes and then be able to take questions. | 所以,早上好,我计划谈大约20分钟, 然后20到25分钟,然后可以提问。 |
| 25 | So, when I'm, when I talk about this topic. | 所以,当我是, 当我谈论这个话题。 |
| 26 | I just want to start out by saying this isn't a partisan talk in the sense that I'm not going to suggest that one team is better than the other one side is better than the other. | 首先我想说的是 这不是一个党派的谈话 意思是我不会建议一个团队比另一个团队好 |
| 27 | And, you know, as an as an American citizen who's lived through the last eight years, eight to 10 years, it's been somewhat of a wild ride. | 作为一位美国公民 在过去的8年,8到10年中, 经历了一段疯狂的旅程。 |
| 28 | And so I think, you know, having gone through this. | 所以我想,你知道, 经历了这个。 |
| 29 | There's a moment to just comment that it's useful to take a few depth deep breaths, which can be hard, not just because of the pandemic that's going on around us but also because we've actually in the United States had something relatively unusual in our | 有一刻可以评论说 深呼吸是有用的 这可能很困难 不仅仅是因为我们周围的流行性疾病 而且还因为我们在美国 |
| 30 | history, which is an armed occupation of one of the branches of the United States government, the occupation of the US Capitol. | 历史,是武装占领美国政府的一个分支, 占领美国首都。 |
| 31 | But I like to put that in context of, well, what's changed in the last three presidential elections. | 但我想把这一点放在前三次总统选举中的变化上。 |
| 32 | So, the first thing to note is that in 2012 President Obama the democrat wins the popular vote in the United States by about four points for percentage | 因此,首先要指出的是,在2012年,奥巴马总统的民主党人在美国赢得了约4个百分点的选票。 |
| 33 | points. | 点。 |
| 34 | Four years later in 2016, Clinton, the democrat wins the popular vote by 2.1 points. | 4年后的2016年,克林顿,民主党以2.1分赢得了大众选票. |
| 35 | So but President Trump is elected a Republican because of the way that we select presidents in the United States, we privilege geographies. | 因此,但特朗普总统因为我们选择美国总统的方式而被选为共和党人,我们特权是地理学. |
| 36 | And so President Trump wins the electoral college so Trump does about 1.8 points better than did Obama, or excuse me then did the Republican in 2012. | 因此特朗普总统赢得了选举团,因此特朗普的得分比奥巴马高约1.8分,或者原谅我在2012年做了共和党人. |
| 37 | And then in 2020, Joe Biden wins the popular vote by 4.4 points. | 之后在2020年,乔·拜登以4.4分赢得大众票. |
| 38 | So that's a 2.3% swing back. | 因此,这是一个2.3%回旋。 |
| 39 | So the central observation is just that there's an enormous amount of change in American government and American public policy associated with about four point change in what the average American is doing or four point change and what the | 因此,中心观察只是,美国政府和美国公共政策发生了巨大变化, 与平均美国人正在做的四点变化或四点变化有关。 |
| 40 | cumulative American public is doing in terms of which side that they're electing. | 累积的美国公众正在做 他们选择哪一边。 |
| 41 | Okay, so what am I going to talk about today? | 好吧 那我今天要谈什么? |
| 42 | I want to talk about two things. | 我想谈两件事 |
| 43 | One is I want to talk about what are we fighting about? | 第一,我想谈谈我们斗什么? |
| 44 | What is the nature of ideological polarization in the United States? | 美国意识形态两极分化的性质是什么? |
| 45 | And second, what is going on with affective polarization? | 第二,情感两极化是怎么回事? |
| 46 | And so I want to distinguish at the forefront between fights we have that are about issues and perhaps the feelings we have about the other side are affective evaluations, how much we like the other side. | 因此,我想先区分一下我们面对的问题 和我们对另一方的感情, 以及我们多么喜欢另一方。 |
| 47 | And when I define polarization, what I mean is the feelings I have towards one party versus the feelings I have towards the other side or actual differences between the two parties. | 当我定义两极分化时,我的意思是,我对一方的感受与对另一方的感受或双方的实际分歧。 |
| 48 | So we're thinking about intra-party differences. | 所以我们在考虑党内分歧. |
| 49 | I'm not going to talk about what is something else that if you're following American politics, you're well aware of, which is that the elites, the members of Congress, the people we think of as not ordinary citizens, but the people in government are obvio | 我不打算谈论什么是别的东西,如果你遵循美国政治,你很清楚,这就是精英,国会议员,我们所认为的人不是普通公民,但是政府中的人民显然也是两极分化的. |
| 50 | And I'm often struck by the question of, well, who are the people who run? | 我经常被一个问题打动 谁是跑步的人? |
| 51 | How do they look like the American people? | 他们看起来像美国人民吗? |
| 52 | And the answer is they don't. | 答案是他们没有 |
| 53 | They're very different. | 他们很不一样 |
| 54 | They're much more polarized than the average person. | 它们比一般人更两极分化. |
| 55 | But I want to think about whether or not what we see at the elite level has spilled down to the mass level and think about what it means perhaps for the stability and ability of our political system to function over the long term. | 但我想考虑一下我们在精英阶层所看到的是否已经蔓延到大众阶层,想想这对我们的政治制度长期运作的稳定与能力可能意味着什么. |
| 56 | And as I like to do, I'm going to spend most of my time sharing actual research because I think I'm better qualified to talk about research than just write commentary for a newspaper. | 正如我喜欢的那样,我将花大部分时间分享实际的研究, 因为我认为我更有资格谈论研究, 而不是为报纸写评论。 |
| 57 | So you've probably seen a map that looks like this if you've been paying attention to American politics. | 如果你一直关注美国政治,你可能已经看到一张这样的地图。 |
| 58 | And the idea here is just this is a plot showing the American states where the states that the Democrats have won are colored blue and the states that the Republicans have won are colored red. | 这里的想法就是,这只是一个阴谋,向美国各州展示民主党赢得的州是彩色蓝色的,共和党赢得的州是彩色红色的. |
| 59 | And this is from 2012 just because it's a nice stark picture, but I could show you 2016 or 2020. | 这是从2012年开始的 只是因为它是一个很好的清晰的图片, 但我可以告诉你2016年或2020年。 |
| 60 | And you might get the impression from seeing this map that Americans are at the point where those of different parties can't even live near one another. | 你可能从这幅地图中 得到的印象是,美国人 处于一个不同党派的人 连彼此都无法生活的地方。 |
| 61 | Now, this map is somewhat deceptive. | 这张地图有点欺骗性 |
| 62 | It's deceptive in one way, which is it makes it displays states by their geographic size, but not by their population size. | 它以一种欺骗的方式表现出来,就是它使国家以地理大小显示,而不是人口大小显示. |
| 63 | So if we just adjust this map for the population of each area, rather than using geography, the country starts to look a lot less red and a lot more evenly divided, but you would still get the impression that people can't live near people with whom they d | 所以,如果我们只是调整这个地图 以每个地区的人口, 而不是利用地理, 这个国家开始看起来 少很多的红色, 和很多更均匀的分裂, 但你仍然会得到一种印象, 人们不能住在 他们不同意的人附近。 |
| 64 | Now the problem here is that we're displaying data at a very high aggregate level, the US state, but there are in fact 3000 counties in the United States. | 现在的问题是,我们显示的数据 在非常高的汇总水平, 美国州, 但事实上, 美国有3000个县。 |
| 65 | And I'm going to do two things in this next graph. | 我将在下图中做两件事。 |
| 66 | The first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to plot data for all the counties. | 第一件事是绘制各县的数据. |
| 67 | So each little colored entity here is one of about 3000 US counties. | 所以这里的每一个小有色实体都是大约3000个美国郡之一. |
| 68 | The other thing I'm doing in this graph that's different than in this previous graph is that I'm color coding the graphs, not just red or blue, but how red or how blue. | 我在这个图表中所做的另外一件事, 不同于这个之前的图表,就是,我正在对图表进行颜色编码, 不仅仅是红色或蓝色, 而且是红色或蓝色。 |
| 69 | So the darkest blue areas in this graph are areas that are more than about 75% Democratic and the darkest red areas are areas that are more than about 75% Republican. | 因此,这个图中最黑暗的蓝色区域是大约75%以上的地区,最黑暗的红色区域是大约75%的共和党. |
| 70 | And what you immediately noticed is first, there's a lot more variation in terms of how blue and red the country is. | 你立即注意到的是,首先, 这个国家的蓝色和红色有更大的差异。 |
| 71 | There are very few places that are overwhelmingly Democratic or overwhelmingly Republican, and we're a lot more mixed up. | 极少数地方是民主派或共和派的压倒性,我们更混杂. |
| 72 | You still see the same pattern where in the central United States it looks very rare red, but that is an artifact in fact of the same population issues and I'm just going to adjust this graph and show it to on a population adjusted basis. | 你仍然看到同样的图案, 在美国中部,它看起来非常罕见的红色, 但事实上,这是同一人口问题的一件艺术品, 我只是调整这个图表, 并显示在人口调整的基础上。 |
| 73 | And once we do that, the country looks much more mixed up. | 而一旦我们这样做, 这个国家看起来更混杂。 |
| 74 | And so just, it doesn't seem that at the basic level of who we live near and how our lives go on that Democrats and Republicans are nearly so divided as you would imagine from that initial graph I showed you. | 所以,看起来,我们住在附近的人 以及我们如何生活的基本层面, 民主党和共和党人 似乎没有像你们想象的那样, 从我给你们看的最初图表上。 |
| 75 | And the same pattern holds within American states. | 同样的模式在美国各州也存在。 |
| 76 | So here is one particular American state from the Northeast, New Hampshire, and this just shows you that a state that Hillary Clinton barely won in 2016. | 这是来自东北的新罕布什尔州的一个美国州 这只表明 希拉里·克林顿在2016年勉强获胜的州 |
| 77 | And within the state, there's a whole lot of variation, such that there are a lot of places that Democrats do a little better and a lot of places that Republicans do a little better. | 而在州内,变化很大,以至于有很多地方民主党人能做得更好一些,很多地方共和党人能做得更好一些. |
| 78 | But there are very few places that are homogenous for one side so even within a state, there's a fair bit of mixing. | 但对于一方来说,很少有一个地方是同质的,所以即使在一个州内,也有相当一部分混合. |
| 79 | So I just want to remind people that if you're looking or reading about American politics, the, there's not nearly as much geographic polarization, as sometimes you would be led to believe by characterizations based on that first set of maps or even repor | 所以我想提醒大家,如果你在看或读美国政治, 地理两极分化的程度没有那么大, 有时候,你会通过基于第一套地图的特征分析, 或甚至报告。 |
| 80 | about states. | 关于州。 |
| 81 | Where do Republicans do better, they do better in rural areas Democrats do better in cities and near universities. | 共和党人在哪些方面表现得更好,在农村地区他们表现得更好,在城市和大学附近民主党人表现得更好. |
| 82 | And what I haven't shown you which is interesting is just where elections change. | 我还没有告诉你 有趣的是选举的改变 |
| 83 | And there's been an enormous amount of change in the last eight to 10 years, places that swung from 2012 to 2016 one direction and from 2016 to 20 back the other direction. | 而过去8到10年中发生了巨大的变化,从2012年到2016年一个方向,从2016年到20年另一个方向。 |
| 84 | Okay, so that's just sort of a preface to get us thinking about elections. | 好吧,那只是让我们思考选举的前言。 |
| 85 | So, the first thing I want to talk about is this question of what, where is the ordinary American public polarized, and what are we polarized about. | 因此,我首先要谈的,是这样一个问题:什么,普通的美国公众是两极分化的,什么是我们两极分化的。 |
| 86 | So, a first fact is just that compared to the 1960s. | 所以,第一个事实是 与1960年代相比。 |
| 87 | In the United States today our parties people who belong to our political parties agree more than they used to. | 今天在美国,我们属于我们政党的政党人民比过去更同意。 |
| 88 | And so the lingo in the United States would be that liberals in the United States are Democrats and conservatives are Republican. | 因此,美国的语言是,美国的自由主义者是民主党人,保守主义者是共和党人. |
| 89 | And it's not just true in the American South, where we used to also have disagreements based on racial policy it's actually true throughout the entire country. | 不仅在美国南方,我们过去也存在基于种族政策的分歧, 实际上,这在全国都是事实。 |
| 90 | At the same time that our parties have become more homogenous fewer Americans think of themselves as member of either dominant party. | 与此同时,我们的政党变得更加同质化,美国人认为自己是任何一个占支配地位的政党的成员。 |
| 91 | So about a third of Americans don't think of themselves as a Democrat, or as a Republican. | 因此,大约三分之一的美国人认为自己不是民主党人,也不是共和党人. |
| 92 | So whatever the two thirds of us are fighting about the other third don't want to play. | 所以无论我们三分之二的人在争吵 关于另外三分之一的人不想玩。 |
| 93 | They don't think that they're part of these major parties, and they choose to not identify with. | 他们不认为自己是这些主要政党的一部分,他们选择不认同. |
| 94 | But at the same time that our parties are more starkly divided. | 但与此同时,我们的政党分歧更为严重。 |
| 95 | The things that predict those deviations are not what you would perhaps expect. | 预测这些偏差的东西 不是你可能期望的。 |
| 96 | So, here is a graph that shows you how democratic, a particular group is or how Republican a group is so on the vertical axis I showed the proportion of a group that voted for the Republican, | 因此,这里有一个图表,显示你是如何民主的, 一个特定的团体是怎样的共和党 一个团体是如何如此的垂直轴心 我展示了一个团体的比例 投票支持共和党, |
| 97 | and this is from 2004 but it wouldn't make a difference what year I showed you. | 这是2004年的,但不会有什么改变 我给你看的那一年。 |
| 98 | And on the horizontal axis is income, how wealthy people are. | 在水平轴上是收入, 富人多富。 |
| 99 | And what you see is that as income grows that goes up, people become more Republican, but the effect isn't very large. | 你所看到的是,随着收入的增加而上升, 人们变得更加共和党人, 但效果并不大。 |
| 100 | So you might imagine that all low income people vote for the democrats and all high income people vote for the Republicans. | 所以你可以想象,所有低收入的人 投票给民主党人, 所有高收入的人投票给共和党人。 |
| 101 | And in fact we don't see that the effect is at the extreme, maybe that as you move from the very poorest group of Americans who are about 60% democratic to the very richest group, they're only about 40% democratic. | 事实上,我们并不认为这种效果是极端的, 也许当你从最贫穷的美国人群体中 60%左右是民主的, 他们只有40%是民主的。 |
| 102 | So you're talking about the effect of going from being very poor to very rich, only being about 20 points. | 所以,你指的是从非常贫穷到非常富有的效果,只有20点左右。 |
| 103 | So even in every income group in the United States, there is still a fair bit of heterogeneity in which party, people support. | 因此,即使在美国的每一个收入群体中, 仍然有相当的不均匀性, 人们支持。 |
| 104 | And if we think about specific policy positions that people have and narrow in, we see similar moderateness in the American public so a salient policy issue in the United States is whether or not a woman should be allowed to get an abortion to end a pregn | 如果我们考虑一下人们有和缩小的具体政策立场,我们看到美国公众中类似的温和性,所以美国一个突出的政策问题是,是否应该允许妇女堕胎以结束妊娠. |
| 105 | So what do Americans think about this question? | 美国人对此问题有什么看法? |
| 106 | Well, about 20% of Americans believe it should be legal under any condition. | 大约20%的美国人 认为在任何条件下这都是合法的 |
| 107 | So for example they might support sex selective abortions or abortions late in a pregnancy. | 例如,它们可能支持有性别选择的堕胎或怀孕较晚的堕胎。 |
| 108 | About 20% of Americans believe that abortion should never be legal, so it should always be illegal no matter the circumstances, even if let's say it endangers a woman's health. | 大约20%的美国人认为堕胎永远不应该是合法的,所以不管在什么情况下堕胎都永远是非法的,即使我们假设堕胎会危及女性的健康. |
| 109 | But about 60% of Americans are in the middle. | 但大约60%的美国人处于中间. |
| 110 | They hold opinions that we think of as somewhere between never and always, and they differ about wonder what circumstances they think that abortion should be legal and what circumstances, it should be illegal. | 他们持有我们所认为的永远和永远之间的某种观点,他们对于怀疑他们认为堕胎应该合法以及什么情况应该是非法的看法有分歧。 |
| 111 | And this pattern is remarkably consistent over time, which is the vast majority of Americans are moderate. | 而这种模式随着时间推移非常一致, 绝大多数美国人是温和的。 |
| 112 | Now, you might infer from that that that Americans are moderate all the time, but that the parties are very homogeneous. | 你可以从中推断 美国人一直都是温和派 但双方非常一致 |
| 113 | And so I just want to show you how diverse the political parties are among Democrats here on the left. | 所以我想向大家展示 左边的民主党人 政党有多多样化 |
| 114 | I have the question of on salient issues how many liberal positions does the average Democrat take, you might imagine that Democrats are within the | 我有一个问题,关于一些突出的问题, 民主党一般采取多少自由主义的立场, 你可能会想象民主党在 |
| 115 | even if independents are quite moderate. | 即使独立人士相当温和 |
| 116 | And what we see here is that on five salient issues, the number of positions on which Democrats take all five positions, or they're also liberal on all five positions, is low. | 我们在这里看到的是,在五个突出问题上,民主党人在所有五个职位上采取的立场,或者他们在所有五个职位上也是自由的,这些立场的数目是很低的. |
| 117 | So only 15% of Democrats are liberal on all five issues, but a third are liberal on four of those issues. | 因此,在所有五个问题上,只有15%的民主党人是自由派的,但在其中四个问题上,三分之一的人是自由派的. |
| 118 | And about another third are only liberal less than half the time. | 大约三分之一的时间是自由主义的 不到一半的时间。 |
| 119 | So even within the Democratic Party people who think of themselves as Democrats, we see a fair bit of moderateness, and we see the same pattern as shown in this right panel among Republicans. | 因此,即使在自认为是民主党人的民主党内部,我们也看到了相当温和的一面,我们看到了共和党人中间这个正确的小组所显示的同样模式. |
| 120 | That is to say there are very few Republicans who hold conservative positions on four or even five of these salient issues. | 也就是说,在其中四个甚至五个突出问题上持保守立场的共和党人很少. |
| 121 | In fact, there are as many Republicans who have only none or one salient conservative position, as there are who have more than that. | 事实上,有同样多的共和党人,他们只拥有一个或一个突出的保守立场,还有更多的人. |
| 122 | So, we think of the elites, the elected leaders as very uniform, but within the parties there's a great deal of heterogeneity. | 因此,我们认为精英,当选的领导人是非常统一的,但是在政党内部却有很大的异质性. |
| 123 | And on top of this, when we ask people, well, what do you care about, and how confident are you in your opinions, Americans are quite willing to say they don't care. | 此外,当我们问人们, 那么,你关心什么, 你对你的观点有多有信心, 美国人非常愿意说他们不在乎。 |
| 124 | And often they say they don't understand. | 常说不解. |
| 125 | And I think of this as the opposite of being very angry about something that you don't know very much about. | 我认为这是相反的 对一些你不太了解的事情感到愤怒。 |
| 126 | Instead Americans say there are lots of things that I don't care about and there are lots of things I don't know if I'm competent to make a decision on. | 相反,美国人说有很多我不在乎的事情 有很多我不知道我是否有能力做决定的事情 |
| 127 | That doesn't mean they won't give you an opinion. | 这并不意味着他们不会给你一个意见。 |
| 128 | So if you give them a public opinion poll and you say should we do A or B, they'll say oh we should definitely do B. | 如果你给他们做民意测验 你说我们应该做A或B 他们就会说我们绝对应该做B |
| 129 | But if you ask them, well, are you sure, they'll say no, I'm not very sure. | 但如果你问他们,好吧,你确定, 他们会说不,我不是很确定。 |
| 130 | So, a warning there is when you encounter survey data in which Americans tell you something, just because they tell you something doesn't believe that they're going to act on that basis or they believe it very strongly. | 所以,一个警告是,当你遇到调查数据 美国人告诉你一些东西, 只是因为他们告诉你一些东西 不相信他们会这样做, 或者他们相信它非常强烈。 |
| 131 | And our focus on things we're fighting about often obscures the fact that there are many issues on which we agree. | 我们专注于我们所争斗的事物 往往掩盖了一个事实,即我们同意许多问题。 |
| 132 | So in the United States we used to ask survey questions about things like should a woman be allowed to go to college or university? | 因此在美国,我们曾经问过调查问题,比如妇女应该被允许上大学还是上大学? |
| 133 | Should a woman be able to take a job without her husband's permission? | 女人应该可以没有丈夫的允许就去工作吗? |
| 134 | Should people who are of different races be allowed to marry? | 是否应该允许不同种族的人结婚? |
| 135 | And we used to ask lots of questions about communists because we were fighting in the Cold War with the Soviet Union. | 我们经常问很多关于共产主义者的问题,因为我们是在冷战中与苏联交战的. |
| 136 | We simply don't ask about these questions anymore. | 我们只是不再问这些问题。 |
| 137 | And so because we don't ask about them, we forget that we now more or less agree. | 所以,因为我们不问他们, 我们忘记了,我们现在多少同意。 |
| 138 | And so we've moved from issues in which we ask questions about things we used to fight about to only asking questions about things that we're currently fighting about, which makes it look like we're fighting all the time. | 因此,我们从那些问我们过去所争的事物的问题, 转移到只问我们目前所争的事物的问题, 这使得它看起来像我们一直在争吵。 |
| 139 | And I think of an example of an issue that's becoming a consensus issue in the United States is, for example, same-sex marriage, which 25 years ago was something that among Yale students was deeply contentious. | 我想到一个在美国成为共识的问题的例子, 比如同性婚姻,25年前,在耶鲁大学的学生中, 这个问题是有争议的。 |
| 140 | And now when you teach an undergraduate class, 85 to 90% of the students say gay marriage or same-sex marriage should be allowed. | 现在当您教授本科课程时,85%到90%的学生说同性恋婚姻或同性婚姻应该被允许. |
| 141 | That's changed in part just because of generational replacement, but it was a big issue that we were fighting about for about a decade and a half, and it's gone away. | 这有一部分是因为代代相传而改变的, 但它是一个大问题, 我们争了大约15年, 它消失了。 |
| 142 | I don't want you to walk away with the impression that the American public, however, is moderate, that on average people hold centrist positions. | 我不希望你带着这样的印象走开, 即美国公众是温和的, 平均来说,人们担任中间派的职位。 |
| 143 | What we see is in fact something pretty different, which is that people hold extreme positions. | 我们所看到的,其实是相当不同的东西, 那就是人们有极端的地位。 |
| 144 | They just seem to hold extreme positions on both sides. | 他们似乎在双方都持有极端的立场。 |
| 145 | So our party system doesn't really allow people to perfectly match their political views. | 因此,我们的党制度并不真正允许人们完全符合他们的政治观点. |
| 146 | You get to pick more or less the Democratic or the Republican Party. | 你可以选民主党或共和党 |
| 147 | And I like to think about this when we think about two salient candidates in the last election. | 在上次选举时,我想考虑一下这一点。 |
| 148 | So we had Bernie Sanders, who was a Democrat who was running in the Democratic primary, and Donald Trump, who of course was our incumbent Republican president, | 于是我们有伯尼·桑德斯 他是民主党初选的民主党人 唐纳德·特朗普当然是我们的现任共和党主席 |
| 149 | and both made salient economically populist claims about trade. | 他们都对贸易提出了明显的经济民粹主义主张。 |
| 150 | So they both talked about trade with China in very populist terms. | 所以他们都以非常民粹主义的术语谈论了与中国的贸易. |
| 151 | They were both in favor of trade restrictions. | 他们都赞成贸易限制。 |
| 152 | Now they're on opposite sides of the political spectrum, and you could consider both of those candidates as taking relatively extreme views, even though they're on opposite sides, they're taking the same position. | 现在他们处于政治面的对立面,你们可以认为这两个候选人都采取相对极端的观点,尽管他们处于对立面,但他们采取同样的立场. |
| 153 | One might worry that in fact the problem is that we're living in not a world based on our opinions, but a world where we live in have separate facts. | 人们可能担心,事实上问题在于我们生活在一个不是基于我们的观点的世界,而是我们生活在一个有着不同事实的世界. |
| 154 | And so maybe it's not about our tastes or our leaders, but that we can't even understand what's going on around us. | 所以也许这与我们的品味和领袖们无关, 但我们甚至无法理解周围发生了什么。 |
| 155 | So I give an example of the following survey question. | 因此,我举出以下调查问题的例子。 |
| 156 | We asked Americans from January 2001 when President Bush first took office to January 2009 when he left office, how has the unemployment rate in the United States changed? | 我们从2001年1月布什总统首次上任到2009年1月卸任,问美国人美国的失业率如何变化? |
| 157 | And Democrats told us that the unemployment rate had gone up by about two and a half points, Republicans said about one and a half points, and that difference, which is about a percentage point, is a very large difference. | 而民主党人告诉我们,失业率已经上升了大约2.5个百分点,共和党人说大约1.5个百分点,这个差别,大约是1个百分点,是一个非常大的差异. |
| 158 | That's the difference between being, let's say, in a recession and not being in a recession. | 可以说,这是衰退和不衰退之间的区别。 |
| 159 | What's interesting is both sides are wrong. | 有趣的是双方都错了 |
| 160 | Actually, the unemployment rate during this period, during the Great Recession, went up by almost four points. | 实际上,在大衰退期间,这一时期的失业率上升了近四个百分点。 |
| 161 | They forget that when President Bush lost the election in the fall of 2008, the economy was getting worse and it kept getting worse. | 他们忘记,当布什总统在2008年秋天输掉选举时,经济正在恶化,并持续恶化。 |
| 162 | I'm sorry, Bush doesn't lose the election, he can't run again. | 对不起,布什没有输掉选举,他不能再参选了. |
| 163 | But between November 2008 when Obama is elected and when he takes office, the economy is declining precipitously. | 但从2008年11月奥巴马当选到上任期间,经济急剧下滑. |
| 164 | So we read this and we say, well, are Democrats and Republicans, do they just have different facts in their heads? | 所以,我们读了这个,然后我们说,是民主党人和共和党人, 他们脑子里有不同的事实吗? |
| 165 | Because that would be really concerning if we actually believed different things about the state of the world. | 因为如果我们真的相信 关于世界状况的不同的东西,那会很有意义。 |
| 166 | But remember, we're dealing with survey data here. | 但记住,我们正在处理调查数据。 |
| 167 | So if you say something wrong on a survey or you lie on a survey, it really doesn't make any difference. | 所以如果你在调查上说错了话 或者你在调查上撒谎 那真的没什么区别 |
| 168 | But what happens if I give Americans an incentive to get it right? | 但如果我给美国人一个激励 来得到它的权利呢? |
| 169 | So what happens if I pay you a very small amount of money, let's say 10 cents or even as much as a dollar, to get the answer right? | 所以,如果我付你很少的钱, 让我们说10美分,甚至1美元, 得到正确的答案? |
| 170 | And what happens when I start to put money on the table is that the incentive you have to just say whatever is politically convenient goes down or stays the same. | 当我开始把钱放在桌上时, 会发生的就是, 你只要说出政治方便的激励 就会下降或者保持不变。 |
| 171 | But the incentive to get the answer right and earn some money goes up. | 但得到正确答案和赚点钱的激励却上升了。 |
| 172 | So what happens when we do this? | 我们这样做会怎样? |
| 173 | So we go from about 0.8 to about 0.5. | 所以我们从0.8到0.5左右。 |
| 174 | So about a third of the gap between Democrats and Republicans can disappear if we just give people 10 cents to give us the right answer. | 民主党和共和党之间 大约三分之一的差距 可以消失 如果我们给人们10美分 给我们正确的答案 |
| 175 | 10 cents is not a lot of money. | 10美分不是很多钱。 |
| 176 | But of course, an incentive won't work if people really don't know, because if you don't know and someone says, well, I'll pay you to get it right, you don't know what answer to give. | 但是,当然,如果人们真的不知道,奖励是行不通的, 因为如果你不知道,而且有人说, 好吧,我会付你钱来得到它正确, 你不知道应该给什么答案。 |
| 177 | So we can also use an old way of penalizing guessing, which is what we used to use on standardized tests in the United States, which is you get it paid for getting it right, but we'll actually penalize you for getting it wrong. | 所以我们也可以用一种老的方法来惩罚猜测, 这就是我们以前在美国的标准化测试中使用的方法, 那就是你用它来补偿它,但是我们实际上会惩罚你错误的。 |
| 178 | And the way we did that is we said, OK, you can win some money for getting it right, but we'll also give you a smaller amount of money. | 我们这样做的方式是,我们说, OK,你可以赢得一些钱 使它正确, 但我们也会给你一些钱。 |
| 179 | Just for saying, you're right, I don't know the answer. | 你说得对,我不知道答案 |
| 180 | And what we find is that if we give you about 10 cents for saying, don't know, and let's say a dollar to get it right, half of Americans will admit they don't know. | 我们发现的是,如果我们给你大约10美分钱 说,不知道,让我们说一美元 把它正确,一半的美国人会承认他们不知道。 |
| 181 | So half of Americans who ordinarily answer a survey question will say, I actually don't have any idea what the answer is if you give them almost no money. | 所以通常回答调查问题的半数美国人会说, 实际上我不知道答案是什么 如果你给他们几乎没有钱。 |
| 182 | So this, once we account for this, the party gap drops to about 0.1 points. | 因此,一旦我们对此进行了解释, 党内的差距就下降到了0.1分左右。 |
| 183 | So fully 75, let's see, 8.8 divided by 0.1 divided by 0.8, so 85% of the gap between Democrats and Republicans can go away when we give people very small amounts of money. | 所以完全75,让我们看看,8.8除以0.1,0.8,所以当我们给人极小数额的钱的时候,民主党和共和党之间85%的差距就可以消失. |
| 184 | And so this comes back to the point that people know that they don't know the answer, but most surveys don't give you a chance to say that you don't know. | 所以这又回到了人们知道他们不知道答案的点上, 但大多数调查并没有给你机会说,你不知道。 |
| 185 | OK, so this is about facts and values. | 好吧,这是关于事实和价值。 |
| 186 | I want to spend some time talking about another topic that has been front and center in the United States, and that is a topic which uses the label affective polarization. | 我想花点时间谈谈另一个在美国居于前列和中心位置的议题,而这个议题是使用带有影响性的两极分化的标签。 |
| 187 | And that is the idea that I literally hate people on the other side. | 这就是我真正讨厌对方的人的想法。 |
| 188 | And it's an analogy that's often made to sports teams. | 而这个类比经常被用在运动队身上. |
| 189 | So in the United States, for example, a prominent sports team is the Chicago Cubs, a baseball team from the city where I grew up, and another team, which is the New York Yankees. | 例如,在美国,一个著名的体育队是芝加哥小熊队, 一个来自我成长所在城市的棒球队, 另一个球队是纽约洋基队。 |
| 190 | And you would in fact find people who would say that they hate the Yankees and they love the Cubs. | 你会发现有人会说 他们讨厌洋基队 他们喜欢小熊队 |
| 191 | And I grew up in Chicago as a kid, my baseball team is the Cubs. | 我小时候在芝加哥长大 我的棒球队是小熊队 |
| 192 | I might even say that. | 我甚至可以这么说 |
| 193 | And the question is, should we think of politics like that, that you have your party, your team that you like, and you have the other team that you loathe, that you hate them. | 问题是,如果我们想到这样的政治, 你拥有你喜欢的政党,你的团队, 你拥有另一个你讨厌的团队, 你讨厌他们。 |
| 194 | And why are sports analogies a good one? | 为什么运动类比是好的? |
| 195 | Well, because it doesn't really matter anything about the Cubs or the Yankees. | 因为小熊和洋基无关紧要 |
| 196 | I have these feelings about them. | 我对他们有这种感觉 |
| 197 | They're my team, but it's not the same team as it was 25 years ago. | 他们是我的团队,但和25年前不一样 |
| 198 | And I don't go to baseball games with any regularity, but somehow I feel really strong allegiance to my team. | 我并不经常参加棒球比赛 但不知怎么的,我觉得我对球队很忠诚 |
| 199 | Is politics like that? | 政治是这样吗? |
| 200 | It's not about the substance. | 这不是物质。 |
| 201 | It's really just about what team I'm on. | 这其实只是我加入的队伍。 |
| 202 | So one of the experiments we've run in the United States is to imagine that your son or daughter came home with, let's say, the Democrat, Hillary Clinton, or the Republican Donald Trump. | 所以,我们在美国进行的实验之一是想象你的儿子或女儿带着民主党人希拉里·克林顿或共和党人唐纳德·特朗普回家. |
| 203 | All pictures of Donald Trump that you find on the internet, he's smiling and they're big. | 所有唐纳德·特朗普的照片,你在网上找到, 他笑了,而且很大。 |
| 204 | All the pictures of Hillary Clinton are about this size and she looks about the same. | 希拉里·克林顿的所有照片都差不多这么大 她看起来也差不多 |
| 205 | So who should your kids marry? | 你的孩子应该嫁给谁? |
| 206 | And if you look over time, in this graph I have at the top shown the proportion of Americans who say they'd be unhappy if one of their children married a member of the other political party. | 如果你仔细看一看, 我在这张图上显示的是 美国人中 说如果他们的孩子之一 嫁给另一个政党的成员,他们会不高兴的比例。 |
| 207 | So back in the 60s, it's about 5%. | 所以回到60年代,大约是5%. |
| 208 | By the time we get to 2008, it's about 20 to 25%. | 到2008年时,已经达到20%到25%左右. |
| 209 | And in 2010, and even today, it's somewhere north of 40% of Americans say they'd be very unhappy or somewhat unhappy if one of their children married a member of the other political party. | 在2010年,甚至今天, 在40%的美国人以北的某个地方, 说如果他们的孩子之一嫁给另一个政党的成员, 他们会非常不高兴或有些不开心。 |
| 210 | This is akin to someone saying, well, if my child married someone who watched a different baseball team, I would be really angry. | 这类似于有人说,嗯, 如果我的孩子嫁给了一个人 谁看不同的棒球队, 我会非常生气。 |
| 211 | So what does this tell us? | 这告诉我们什么? |
| 212 | So one answer is it tells us that people hate the other side. | 所以一个答案是,它告诉我们,人们讨厌另一方。 |
| 213 | And we see in simple public opinion data, the proportion of Americans who say they don't like the other side has likewise gone up over time. | 我们从简单的舆论数据中看到, 说不喜欢对方的美国人的比例也随着时间推移而上升。 |
| 214 | So we have a question where you say, how warmly do you feel towards the other side? | 我们有一个问题,你说,你对另一边有多热情? |
| 215 | And this horizontal axis here is just time and the vertical graph is just how cold you feel towards the other party. | 这里的横向轴只是时间, 垂直的图表只是你对另一方的感冒。 |
| 216 | Republicans feel more cold towards the other side and Democrats feel more cold towards the other side. | 共和党人对另一方感觉更冷,民主党人对另一方感觉更冷. |
| 217 | So how should we interpret the results? | 那么我们该如何解释结果呢? |
| 218 | Now, one comment is no one ever comes home and says, well, look, Mom, I'm marrying a member of the other political party unless they want to make their mother angry. | 现在,一个评论是,从来没有人回家 说,好了,看,妈妈,我要娶另一个政党的一名成员 除非他们想让他们的母亲生气。 |
| 219 | So what does this tell us? | 这告诉我们什么? |
| 220 | What are we learning perhaps from someone's partisanship? | 我们可能从某人的党内学习什么? |
| 221 | The other thing about survey data and the reason I think I'm generically skeptical is that it doesn't really tell you anything because it's costless. | 关于调查数据的另一件事 以及我认为我一般怀疑的原因 在于它没有真正告诉你什么 因为它没有成本。 |
| 222 | So it's costless to say that you hate someone in a survey in a way that it wouldn't be cost costless to, for example, to refuse to hang out with someone just because they disagreed with you about politics. | 所以说在一次调查中你恨某人,是没有代价的,比如说,拒绝和某人约会,只是因为他们不同意你对政治的看法。 |
| 223 | So I've done some work where instead of just telling somebody, hey, your daughter introduces you to a man she's dating and you learn their partisanship. | 所以,我做了一些工作 不只是告诉别人, 嘿,你的女儿介绍你 一个男人,她正在约会 你学会他们的党。 |
| 224 | Instead, we learn some other information. | 相反,我们学到了一些其他信息。 |
| 225 | We learn their age, their race, their religion, something about where they went to school, their views about child rearing and some policy position that they have. | 我们了解他们的年龄、种族、宗教、他们上学的地方、他们对抚养子女的看法以及他们的一些政策立场。 |
| 226 | So one view is it's all about party. | 所以,一种观点是它的所有关于党。 |
| 227 | The other view is that when all you know is party, you might say something about partisanship mattering. | 另一种观点是,当你知道的只是党,你可能会说一些关于党派关系的事情. |
| 228 | But what happens if I fill in some more of these details? | 但如果我填写更多这些细节怎么办? |
| 229 | So this is how much more people like their son or their daughter to come home with someone of the same party when all I tell you is about is partisanship. | 所以现在有更多的人喜欢他们的儿子或女儿 和同一个党的人一起回家 当我告诉你的只是党派关系 |
| 230 | So it's almost one and one and one and two thirds points, one point six points on the seven point scale. | 所以几乎是一分一分,一分二分三分,七分尺度上的一分六分. |
| 231 | So I feel much happier when my child says they're going to marry someone of the same party. | 所以当我的孩子说他们要嫁给一个同党时,我感觉更快乐. |
| 232 | But if I include some other information about that potential fiance, for example, their character, their policy positions, their race or the religion, or all of these things together, we see the effect of partisanship becomes much smaller. | 但是,如果我包括一些关于这个潜在的未婚夫的其他信息,例如他们的性格,政策立场,他们的种族或宗教,或者所有这些事情加在一起,我们看到党派关系的效果变得小得多. |
| 233 | So that's our way of thinking that partisanship appears to matter when it's the only thing you learn about someone. | 所以,这就是我们的想法 党派主义似乎很重要 当它是你唯一了解某人。 |
| 234 | But when we fill in a lot of those other details where somebody went to school, other things they think about, people appear to care about those things much more. | 但是,当我们填写很多其他的细节 在那里有人上学, 其他他们想的东西, 人们似乎更关心这些东西。 |
| 235 | And the opposite is not true. | 而反之则不然. |
| 236 | If I tell you about someone's policy positions, for example, their views about abortion or their views about the military, and then I tell you their partisanship, this green bar on the right here, then the effect of policy remains. | 如果我告诉你一个人的政策立场, 比如说他们对堕胎的看法, 或者他们对军队的看法, 然后我告诉你他们的党派立场, 这个绿色的酒吧在这里, 那么政策的效果依然存在。 |
| 237 | So what looks like partisanship on the left over here may in fact be about policy. | 因此,什么看起来像 游击队在这里的左边 实际上可能是关于政策。 |
| 238 | And so it's maybe not about what team I'm on. | 所以这也许与我加入的队伍无关 |
| 239 | It's maybe about the actual issue positions that you have. | 可能是因为你现在的状态 |
| 240 | Now I want to just close with another example. | 现在我想再举个例子 |
| 241 | In the United States, there's even been some data that say that people find people from the other party uglier. | 在美国,甚至有一些数据表明人们从另一个政党找到更丑的人. |
| 242 | That if all I find out, so I show you this picture and sometimes I tell you they're a Romney supporter and sometimes I tell you they're a Clinton supporter, and then I say how attractive are they. | 如果我知道的一切, 所以我给你看这张照片 有时我告诉你他们是罗姆尼的支持者 有时我告诉你他们是克林顿的支持者 然后我说他们有多有吸引力 |
| 243 | And so this is a picture from somebody else's research. | 这是别人研究的照片。 |
| 244 | And you might deduce that well gosh it's gotten to the point where we just think the other side is ugly. | 你或许可以推断出,上帝,它已经到了 我们只是认为对方是丑陋的地步。 |
| 245 | Now, the problem is, you've asked how pretty is that person, but they're not going to answer that survey question what they're really answering is, they want to tell you they don't like that person, or they don't have good values. | 问题是,你已经问过那个人有多漂亮, 但是他们不会回答调查的问题, 他们真正要回答的是, 他们想告诉你,他们不喜欢那个人, 或者他们没有良好的价值。 |
| 246 | So in some work I've done if I just say before asking you how pretty is this person. | 所以,在一些工作里,我做了 如果我只是说之前 问你是多漂亮的人。 |
| 247 | Do you think they have good values. | 你觉得他们有价值吗? |
| 248 | I find that the effect of partisanship on beauty is reduced by a half. | 我发现党派主义对美的影响减少了一半. |
| 249 | And so the implication there is, people don't answer the survey question you ask, just because it's the question you ask they answer a different question. | 也就是说,人们不回答你问的调查问题, 只是因为那是你问的问题, 他们回答一个不同的问题。 |
| 250 | And so I just want to give time for questions, but I want to walk away with two points, or to you to walk away with two points the first. | 所以我只想给时间提问, 但我想带着两点走开, 或者让你带着两点走开。 |
| 251 | There is issue polarization in the United States, but it's not nearly as large as you might pre suppose the mass parties are pretty diverse. | 美国存在着问题两极分化, 但并不像你想象的那么大。 |
| 252 | And when we have differences they're actually confined to issues where people do seem to care a great deal, but they don't care about everything they care about certain issues. | 当我们有分歧时,它们实际上局限于人们似乎非常关心的问题, 但他们并不关心他们关心的每件事。 |
| 253 | And then second that these prior estimates of affective polarization are likely too large. | 其次,这些以前对情感两极分化的估计可能太大。 |
| 254 | And I like to think of it this way that it's easier to say in the abstract, I hate the other side. | 我喜欢这样想, 抽象地说,我讨厌另一边。 |
| 255 | So you would hear an American say, I don't like Chinese people or you hear a Chinese person say oh I don't like Americans, but in fact, when you would observe them interacting they wouldn't feel that they wouldn't behave that way. | 所以,你会听到一个美国人说,我不喜欢中国人, 或者你听到一个中国人说,哦,我不喜欢美国人, 但事实上,当你看到他们互动时, 他们不会觉得他们不会这样做。 |
| 256 | The abstract question is much, much easier to vilify the other side than the specific than the specific question. | 抽象的问题比具体的问题要容易得多,更容易诋毁对方. |
| 257 | And, in fact, if we want to think about public opinion data. | 事实上,如果我们想考虑一下公共舆论数据。 |
| 258 | I think actions speak much louder than words. | 我认为,行动要比言词响亮得多。 |
| 259 | And when we think about the things that dominate our political sorting, it's not partisanship, it's things like our educational environments, our race, and our religion. | 当我们想到主导我们政治排序的东西时, 它不是党派主义,而是我们教育环境,种族,宗教。 |
| 260 | And so I'll stop with that and I hope to take questions. | 所以,我将停止 这一点,我希望接受问题。 |
| 261 | Obviously there's been a lot going on in the United States that's not reflected in the talk and that's part of what I'd be happy to talk about. | 显然,在美国发生了很多事情,这些事情并没有反映在谈话中,这也是我很乐意谈论的部分内容. |
| 262 | So thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 263 | Great. | 不错 |
| 264 | Thank you so much. | 非常感谢 |
| 265 | That was fantastic, and a very good grounding for us to sort of root some of our questions into more than just kind of anecdotal things. | 这真是太棒了, 对我们来说是一个很好的基础, 让我们把一些问题根植于 不仅仅是一些传闻。 |
| 266 | So the way that this will work is anybody that has questions, feel free to either enter them directly into the chat box on the bottom of your screen on the zoom bar. | 任何有疑问的人 都可以在放大栏的屏幕底部直接进入聊天框 |
| 267 | Or you can also just choose to raise your hand and I'd be happy to call on you so that you can ask your question directly and interact directly with the professor. | 或者你也可以选择举起手来 我很乐意拜访你 这样你就可以直接提问 直接与教授互动 |
| 268 | And then I would ask that if you're asking a question or even just in general, if you'd be willing to turn on your cameras, that's always nice because it's always nicer to talk to an actual person and someone in the abstract as we've just discussed. | 然后我会问,如果你问一个问题, 或者甚至只是一般的, 如果你愿意打开你的摄像头, 那总是很好,因为它总是更好 与一个真实的人 和某个抽象的人交谈, |
| 269 | So we would appreciate that. | 因此,我们将感激这一点。 |
| 270 | So feel free to go ahead and ask questions. | 故自在自在而去问. |
| 271 | And I know it takes a while for people to warm up so I think I'll get started with the first one and while I'm asking people go ahead and answer or ask your own questions as well. | 我知道要花点时间让大家暖和起来 所以我想从第一个开始, 当我问人们继续回答或者问你的问题的时候。 |
| 272 | So, obviously, you mentioned current events, and it, it does seem that at least on actually I would say you kind of cross out the part about discussing about elite polarization, but it does seem that whether the elites are actually more polarized or they' | 所以,很明显,你提到了当前的事件, 它,它确实看起来至少 在实际上,我会说 你有点交叉 关于讨论精英两极分化的部分, 但似乎, 精英是实际上 更两极分化 或者他们只是采取 |
| 273 | advantage of the fact that it seems like the general population is more polarized that there is more polarizing rhetoric. | 其优势是,一般民众似乎更加两极分化,言论更加两极分化。 |
| 274 | Would you say from your observations, that is true and, if so, then what accounts for some of those for the some that polarization. | 你能从你的观察中说,这是真的吗? 如果是的话,那么,什么是其中某些两极分化的原因。 |
| 275 | Sure, so I think the first thing I want to do is I just want to set aside President Trump, who I think for a variety of reasons was a unusual president for us, and was also much more willing as a national political figure to say polarizing things. | 当然,所以我想做的第一件事,就是把川普总统搁置一边,因为各种原因,我认为川普总统对我们来说是一个不寻常的总统,而且作为一个国家政治人物,也更愿意说两极化的话. |
| 276 | So let's talk instead let's say about the difference between the US House and the US Senate in the US House member there 435 members of the US House, and they're each elected from a specific district so from a specific place that represents, if my memory | 让我们来谈谈美国众议院和美国参议院在435名美国众议院议员中的区别, 他们各自从一个特定地区选出,所以从一个特定代表的地方选出, 如果我的记忆有助于 |
| 277 | me correctly about 300,000 people. | 我正确的大约30万人。 |
| 278 | Now, so I have to divide it's 340 million Americans divided by 435 and I haven't had enough coffee to do that in my head, so we have to do that. | 现在,我不得不把3.4亿美国人除以435, 我还没有喝到足够的咖啡来做,所以我们必须这样做。 |
| 279 | One thing you notice about those figures is that members of the House, some of them are elected from quite politically homogenous places. | 你注意到,关于这些数字,有一点是众议院议员,其中一些议员是从政治上相当一致的地方选出的。 |
| 280 | And it's not an accident that they're more likely to say what seemed like incendiary or outlandish things than American senators American senators are elected elected from United States states, and each state elects to senators. | 而且,他们比美国参议员更可能说出什么像是煽动性或荒诞的东西,美国参议员从美国各州选出,每个州选举参议员,这不是偶然的. |
| 281 | So if you remember the graph I showed you most states are pretty divided internally so even though they lean Democrat or lean Republican there on average, pretty even. | 所以如果你记得我给你们看的图表 大多数州都内部很分化 所以即使他们平均都倾向于民主党人或共和党人 |
| 282 | It's not surprising to me that senators have been less incendiary or less extreme than House members because there are House members who are elected from places that are more that are pretty politically of homogenous. | 对我来说,参议员们比下议院议员的煽动性或极端性要小,这不足为奇,因为有一些众议院议员是从政治上比较相似的地方选举出来的. |
| 283 | That's one observation. | 这是一个观察。 |
| 284 | The second observation is, we have had periods in the past in the United States that look somewhat like what we're going through now, where we have seen quite vituperative quite angry rhetoric. | 第二个观点是,我们过去在美国有过一些时期, 看上去有点像我们现在所经历的, 在那里我们看到了相当激烈的愤怒的言论。 |
| 285 | And they have been around what I think of as more salient political issues than what we're experiencing now so when you look at what Americans are fighting about now. | 它们一直围绕着我认为比我们现在所经历的 更突出的政治问题 所以当你看到美国人在为什么而斗争的时候 |
| 286 | We're fighting about things like taxes, we're fighting about things like moderate reform to immigration policy. | 我们在为税收之类的事而斗争,在为移民政策进行温和改革之类的事而斗争. |
| 287 | So I am struck that the rhetoric is somewhat out of line with what the actual issue conflict is that the issue conflict is not as large as it. | 因此,我感到惊讶的是,这些言论与实际问题冲突的内容有些不符,因为问题冲突并不大。 |
| 288 | As the rhetorical conflict. | 作为夸夸其谈的冲突。 |
| 289 | I think an open question is, has the air gone out of the room somewhat, or will we see the same level of anger in our rhetoric, when you don't have a president who uses angry rhetoric. | 我认为一个尚未解决的问题是,是否空气从房间里消失了一点,或者我们将在我们的言论中看到同样程度的愤怒,当你没有总统使用愤怒的言论时. |
| 290 | As we've observed for the last four years, and that was just very unusual. | 正如我们在过去4年中观察到的那样,这非常不寻常。 |
| 291 | Usually presidents serve a very different role, which is they don't they don't lead the they might, they don't foment they don't lead, and they don't as national leaders speak in such starkly partisan terms. | 通常总统担任的角色非常不同,即他们不领导他们的力量,不煽动他们不领导,也不像国家领导人那样以如此严酷的党派语言说话. |
| 292 | So then, would, what would you. | 那么,会,你会是什么。 |
| 293 | So obviously Trump is an anomaly in the whole, you know, grand scheme of things. | 很明显特朗普是个反常现象, 你知道,大计划。 |
| 294 | But he's, I guess, for me personally I was still surprised despite that sort of inflammatory rhetoric that he, you know, had a relatively high number of people still willing to support him after four years. | 但是,我想,对于我个人来说,我还是很惊讶,尽管有那种煽动性的言论,他,你知道,有相当多的人仍然愿意在四年后支持他. |
| 295 | So, do you think that's an indication of anything that we should be worried about. | 所以,你认为这是否表明 我们应该担心什么。 |
| 296 | Well, I mean four years ago I remember I wrote a letter to my children, in which I commented. | 四年前我记得我写了一封信给孩子们, 信中我作了评论。 |
| 297 | Why did people vote for Donald Trump, they often didn't vote for Donald Trump because they liked the way he behaved on Twitter. | 为什么人们投票给唐纳德·特朗普,他们经常不投票给唐纳德·特朗普,因为他们喜欢他在Twitter上的行为方式. |
| 298 | They voted for Donald Trump because there were substantive policy issues that they agree with the Republican Party, and I always tell people it's good to talk to members of both political parties to remember that lots of people voted for Hillary Clinton, | 他们投票支持唐纳德·特朗普,因为有一些实质性的政策问题,他们同意共和党,我总是告诉人们,与两个政党的成员交谈是好的,记住很多人投票支持希拉里·克林顿, |
| 299 | even though they hated her because they thought her issue positions were better, or they voted for Donald Trump, not because he was someone who's been married three times and says terrible things on Twitter, but because his tax policies and his regulatory | 即使他们恨她,因为他们认为她的议题立场更好,或者他们投票给唐纳德·特朗普,不是因为他是曾经结过三次婚的人,在Twitter上说了可怕的话,而是因为他的税收政策和监管政策, |
| 300 | they thought would be better for the American economy, and the political system doesn't really give you an option to say why you voted for someone, it just gives you a choice. | 他们认为这对美国经济会更好, 政治制度并没有真正给你一个选择 说为什么你投票给某人, 它只是给你一个选择。 |
| 301 | And I think even in the last election we saw something very similar where we saw lots of people who said, for example, the most important political issue to me is abortion, and I'm a conservative and I believe that abortion should be prohibited. | 我认为即使在上次的选举中,我们看到了一些非常相似的东西, 我们看到很多人说,比如说, 对我最重要的政治问题是堕胎, 我是一个保守派,我认为堕胎应该被禁止。 |
| 302 | And so I'm going to vote for the Republican Party, even though I dislike Donald Trump. | 所以我要投共和党一票 尽管我不喜欢唐纳德·特朗普 |
| 303 | And I think that's one important thing to remember is that the vote doesn't imply endorsement of the red. | 我认为这是要记住的一件大事,就是投票并不意味对红色的支持. |
| 304 | Thanks. | 谢谢 |
| 305 | All right, so we've got a question from Patrick here. | 好吧,所以我们有一个问题 从帕特里克在这里。 |
| 306 | And again, if people have questions, feel free to either raise your hand or enter directly into the chat box. | 同样,如果人们有疑问,可以随意举起你的手或者直接进入聊天箱. |
| 307 | You know, a lot of things have been going on recently in the news so it's, and it's good opportunity to get a direct answer from an actual expert instead of just random talking heads so. | 你知道,最近新闻里发生了很多事情,所以是的, 这是一个很好的机会,从一个真正的专家那里得到一个直接的答案, 而不是随便说话的脑袋。 |
| 308 | All right, Patrick. | 好吧,派崔克,别这样 |
| 309 | Hello. | 哈罗 |
| 310 | Thank you, Professor. | 谢谢你,教授 |
| 311 | I heard an argument that for a two party democracy to work very well, there should be polarization. | 我听到一个论点,一个两个政党的民主要运作得非常好,就应该有两极分化. |
| 312 | If the two parties are going towards the center, that wouldn't be a good thing for the democracy and for the two party system. | 如果两党走向中央,那对民主,对两党制度来说是不好的. |
| 313 | What do you think? | 你觉得呢? |
| 314 | So, so in the United States in the mid 1950s, the American Political Science Association wrote a report in which they complained that American political parties were not enough like European parties, they were too moderate. | 因此,在1950年代中期的美国,美国政治学协会写了一份报告,他们抱怨美国政党不够像欧洲政党,他们太温和了. |
| 315 | And they said it would be much better if we had two competing parties that took ideologically opposing positions and voters could choose between the two of them. | 他们说,如果我们有两个在意识形态上持对立立场的相互竞争的政党,而且选民可以在其中两个政党之间作出选择,那就更好了。 |
| 316 | And sure enough, the political system has produced that. | 当然,政治制度已经产生了这一点。 |
| 317 | And now we write articles that say, how come we disagree. | 现在我们写文章说,为什么我们不同意。 |
| 318 | And it seems to me that the, it is certainly the case that we have gotten what they wished for. | 在我看来,我们确实实现了他们的愿望。 |
| 319 | And now we have to live with it and it does look like a European political system to much more than it than it used to in the United States. | 现在我们必须接受它,它看起来确实比美国更像是欧洲的政治制度。 |
| 320 | What the one question that I think is difficult that I like to just remind people about and I think I mentioned this briefly before is that there are lots of issues we're fighting about and disagree about, but the way that the political system organizes t | 我认为,我唯一想提醒人们的一个困难问题,我想我以前曾简要地提到这个问题,那就是,我们所争论和争论的问题很多,但政治制度组织这些问题的方式可能并不完全有效。 |
| 321 | So, for example, imagine that I'm someone who believes that we should have no restriction on same sex marriage. | 所以,比如,想象一下,我是一个认为我们不应该限制同性婚姻的人。 |
| 322 | So I'm a liberal on American social policy, I believe that the government should not regulate people's private lives. | 所以我是美国社会政策的自由主义者,我认为政府不应该管制人们的私生活. |
| 323 | And I also believe that the United States should have free trade. | 我也认为美国应该有自由贸易。 |
| 324 | So I believe that we shouldn't have trade restrictions. | 所以我认为我们不应该有贸易限制。 |
| 325 | Traditionally, the Democratic Party in the United States was liberal on social issues but conservative on trade, and the Republican Party was conservative on social issues but liberal on trade. | 传统上,美国的民主党在社会问题上是自由的,但在贸易上是保守的,共和党在社会问题上是保守的,但在贸易上却是自由的. |
| 326 | I had to pick one of those parties. | 我得选个派对 |
| 327 | So there's an inefficiency, which is that the political system bundles multiple issues together into the parties. | 因此存在一种效率低下的现象,即政治制度将多种问题捆绑到党内. |
| 328 | And so I have to pick which issue matters more to me. | 所以我得选一个对我更重要的问题 |
| 329 | And so I would say, yes, it's desirable that the parties offer real choices. | 所以我要说,是的,希望各方能提供真正的选择。 |
| 330 | The real problem is the bundling of issues, because I can't unbundle those issues in a two party system. | 真正的问题是捆绑问题,因为我不能把这些问题放在两个政党制度中。 |
| 331 | Now in a European parliamentary democracy, where you have lots of different parties. | 现在在欧洲议会民主制中,你有很多不同的政党。 |
| 332 | You'll notice that you have parties that have all four bundles. | 你会注意到,你有派对 有所有的四捆。 |
| 333 | So they're liberal on economic issues and social issues, conservative on economic and social issues, and then we have the off diagonal that are liberal on the economy but conservative on social and vice versa. | 所以他们在经济问题和社会问题上是自由的, 在经济和社会问题上是保守的, 然后我们有了对角线, 经济上是自由的, 社会上是保守的,反之亦然。 |
| 334 | We don't have that in the American two party system and as a consequence, it means that we get this inefficient bundling, I think, that puts us in a position of looking like we disagree more than we do. | 我们在美国的两党制中并不存在这种情况,因此,它意味着我们得到了这种效率低下的捆绑,我认为,这使我们处于一种比我们更不同意的状态。 |
| 335 | Why don't I go ahead and call on Susan and then I'll go to the questions that are in the chat. | 不如我先去拜访苏珊 然后我去谈谈聊天中的问题 |
| 336 | Hi, Mr. Huber. | 嗨,汉伯先生。 |
| 337 | I have two questions. | 我有个问题 |
| 338 | First one is, I think Biden rejoined the WHO in Paris climate agreement on the first day. | 首先,我想拜登第一天在巴黎气候协议中 重新加入了世界卫生组织。 |
| 339 | It's a quite different action from Donald Trump. | 与唐纳德·特朗普的行动相当不同. |
| 340 | So with such kind of extreme polarization actions within the political parties in the US lowers the development of America. | 因此,美国政党内部的这种极端两极化行动降低了美国的发展。 |
| 341 | Like you see, many of the Trump's efforts don't work anymore. | 如你所见,特朗普的很多努力已经行不通了. |
| 342 | Right. | 对 |
| 343 | And my second question is that it's actual vote for Trump in the 2020 election higher than the prediction. | 而我的第二个问题是,在2020年的选举中,实际投票给特朗普的票数高于预测. |
| 344 | I heard some media said about such statement. | 我听到一些媒体谈到这种言论。 |
| 345 | So, thank you. | 所以,谢谢你。 |
| 346 | Let me take those questions in the opposite order. | 让我按相反顺序处理这些问题。 |
| 347 | So, the United States, and most countries in fact are dealing with this question of how do you conduct polling of public opinion polling, and how well does it predict what actually happens in subsequent elections. | 因此,美国,以及实际上大多数国家, 正在处理一个问题, 你如何进行民意测验, 以及它如何预测以后的选举中会发生什么。 |
| 348 | And starting in about 2012, but really brought to the fore in 2016 polling has given us that poor predictions. | 从2012年开始,但是在2016年的投票中 真正凸显了这一点。 |
| 349 | And so there's a big concern about the ability of our polls to forecast what's going to happen. | 我们的民意调查 能否预测未来将会发生什么 令人十分担忧 |
| 350 | And I'm not a an expert on conducting public opinion polls, I do a lot of them, but, but I'm, I'm not able to say like, if I did polling for a business, what would I say, we have a problem in the United States. | 我并不是一个进行民意测验的专家, 我做了很多, 但我,我不能说, 如果我为企业投票, 我会说什么,我们在美国有问题。 |
| 351 | The problem is that 25 to 30 years ago you could randomly dial digits on a telephone, and people at the other end of the phone would pick up, pick up and take a public opinion survey. | 问题是25到30年前 你可以在电话上随机拨打数字, 而电话的另一端的人会接,接,并进行民意调查. |
| 352 | And so you could reach an ordinary subset of Americans just by picking up the phone and randomly dialing surveys were a lot easier to conduct them. | 这样你就可以通过接听电话和随机拨号来达到一个普通的美国人子集, 比较容易进行这些调查。 |
| 353 | Now the problem is, most everyone has a cell phone particularly people under the age of 40 have a cell phone most don't have a physical telephone in their house, and people don't answer the phone. | 现在的问题是,大多数人都有手机, 特别是40岁以下的人 家里没有手机,人们也不接电话。 |
| 354 | And so the group of people who take public opinion polls has become less and less like the average American. | 因此,接受民意测验的人群越来越不像普通美国人. |
| 355 | And so if you want to conduct public opinion polling your job has become much harder. | 所以,如果你想进行民意调查,你的工作就变得更加困难。 |
| 356 | And that is I think the takeaway point, which is that public opinion polling is much harder than it used to be. | 我认为,这是取材点, 即民意测验比以前困难得多。 |
| 357 | Now public opinion polling in 2020 told us that Donald Trump would do worse than he did in 2016. | 现在2020年的民意调查告诉我们,唐纳德·特朗普会比2016年做得更糟. |
| 358 | They were right about that. | 他们是对的 |
| 359 | They were wrong about how much worse he would do. | 他们错误地说他会更糟糕 |
| 360 | But the pollsters knew they would be wrong, and we're very conservative and said we think Donald Trump will be due you know two points worse, maybe three points worse, but be very cautious in interpreting our estimates, particularly at the state level. | 但民意调查者知道他们错了,我们非常保守,并说我们认为唐纳德·特朗普应该知道两分更差,也许三分更差,但在解释我们的估计时要非常谨慎,特别是在州一级. |
| 361 | And so, Donald Trump over performs some polls. | 所以唐纳德·特朗普做了一些民调 |
| 362 | But I think that we were much less surprised by this and we know that we have an imperfect technology which is public opinion polling and we know why it's imperfect. | 但我认为我们对此并不感到惊讶, 我们知道我们有一个不完美的技术, 即民意测验, |
| 363 | My colleagues who study China, and who have to try to undertake public opinion polls in China, say welcome to the crowd. | 我研究中国的同僚,要努力在中国进行民意调查,请大家向群众表示欢迎. |
| 364 | They've been dealing with this ever since they've tried to do public opinion work in China or other parts of the world. | 自从他们试图在中国或其他地区做舆论工作以来,他们就一直在处理这件事. |
| 365 | It's very, very hard to get to people, and it's very hard for them to tell you what they really believe on public opinion polls. | 这非常,非常难接触到人,他们很难告诉你他们在民意调查中真正相信什么. |
| 366 | The other thing that happened in 2020 that made the election somewhat surprising is how many Americans voted, both on the Democratic and Republican side, we had our highest turnout election ever. | 2020年发生的另一件事 让选举有点令人惊讶的是, 多少美国人投票, 无论是民主党还是共和党, 我们的投票率是有史以来最高的。 |
| 367 | Despite the fact that we have a raging pandemic, and most people were worried during the summer that turnout would be way down that many fewer people would vote and in fact turnout was much higher. | 尽管我们流行性流行病肆虐,而且大多数人在夏季担心投票率会低得多,投票率实际上要高得多。 |
| 368 | Then you asked about rejoining who and the climate accords. | 然后,你问 关于重新加入谁和气候协议。 |
| 369 | I think that that's certainly my expectation is that Biden is much more of a traditional American elite in terms of his view about international organizations and international cooperation. | 我认为,这当然是我的期望,那就是拜登在对国际组织和国际合作的看法上,更像一个传统的美国精英. |
| 370 | There's been some pretty good academic research suggesting that, for example, our trade conflict with China has actually hurt the American export market far more than we gained, and it seems to me that we're going to see this general pattern. | 有一些相当好的学术研究表明,例如,我们与中国的贸易冲突实际上对美国出口市场的伤害远超过我们所获得的,在我看来,我们将会看到这种总的模式. |
| 371 | I don't know, however, if that is for the long run, because certainly we're seeing more politicians in both the Democratic and Republican parties who are willing to question internationalism and multinationalism as a policy tool. | 然而,我不知道,从长远看,这是否是长期性的,因为我们肯定看到民主党和共和党中有更多的政治家愿意将国际主义和多国主义作为政策工具来质疑. |
| 372 | And I have other colleagues who are experts at international relations, who can probably speak more to the long run prospects for internationalism. | 我还有其他同事是国际关系方面的专家,他们也许可以更多地谈论国际主义的长期前景。 |
| 373 | Let me jump to the chat and reading Paris question. | 让我跳到聊天和阅读巴黎问题。 |
| 374 | So, so I think the first question asked me like, how can we stop Americans can from dividing and and what impact will it have on the world. | 所以,我想第一个问题问我, 我们如何阻止美国人分裂, 以及它对世界的影响。 |
| 375 | And so I think it was notable that yesterday's inauguration if any of you watched it, that there were prominent Republicans and Democrats | 所以,我认为值得注意的是,昨天的就职典礼 如果有谁看, 有著名的共和党人和民主党人 |
| 376 | present at the inauguration. | 出席开幕式。 |
| 377 | And I think there are a fair number of elites who understand that our ability to stand united as a country and get things done is lost when we can't work together. | 我认为,有相当数量的精英认识到,我们作为一个国家团结一致和解决问题的能力,在我们无法共同工作的时候就失去了。 |
| 378 | Now, does this mean we agree about everything? | 这是否意味着我们同意一切? |
| 379 | No. | 没有 |
| 380 | Does it mean that most elites agree about the peaceful transfer of power and agree about the threats posed by foreign adversaries? | 这是否意味着大多数精英阶层同意和平移交权力,同意外国对手构成的威胁? |
| 381 | Yes. | 对 |
| 382 | And I think we're returning my hope is to at least four more years of a little more normal. | 我想,我们恢复了希望 至少四年多一点的正常。 |
| 383 | I think, honestly, part of what motivates American elites is a fear of China, and their view that if the United States can't engage in the world, that China will fill that role and the United States, many people in the United States want the United States | 老实说,我认为,促使美国精英的部分动机是对中国的恐惧,他们的观点是,如果美国不能参与世界事务,中国将填补这个角色,美国,美国许多人希望美国保留冷战结束以来的领导作用. |
| 384 | So the next question is, I wonder if scapegoating China for problems in the US really helps candidates for vote for both parties. | 因此,下一个问题是,我想知道,为美国的问题替中国作替罪羊,是否真的有助于竞选双方选票的候选人. |
| 385 | So I think it depends on what you mean by scapegoating. | 所以我觉得这取决于你所谓的替罪羊 |
| 386 | One prominent way of scapegoating that we've spent the last year talking about is COVID-19, where we don't yet, you know, first of all, we've seen a lot of that scapegoating go away. | 去年我们讨论过的一个显著的替罪羊方法就是COVID-19, 我们还没有,你知道,首先,我们已经看到很多替罪羊走了。 |
| 387 | But we haven't had yet a full and complete understanding of how transparent China was about the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 virus and the degree to which regional officials perhaps were not completely transparent. | 但我们还没有完全完全了解中国对于COVID-19病毒最初爆发的透明度,以及地区官员可能并不完全透明的程度. |
| 388 | But I don't think that's scapegoating. | 但我不认为这是替罪羊。 |
| 389 | I think that's a factual question. | 我认为这是一个事实问题。 |
| 390 | More scapegoating, I think, that's likely to go on might have to do with trade policy and the use of state-owned enterprises and why that might give companies in China an unfair advantage. | 我认为,更多的替罪羊,这可能会继续下去,可能与贸易政策和国有企业的使用有关,以及为什么这可能会给中国的公司带来不公平的优势. |
| 391 | That might be an area of bipartisan agreement in the United States. | 这可能是美国两党协议的一个领域。 |
| 392 | So it may be that one thing that's changed is that's not a partisan issue anymore. | 所以也许改变的一件事 已经不再是党派问题了 |
| 393 | It's a belief that one of the things the United States has to deal with is, as in its relations with Europe, what's going to be the national line on how we deal with different countries and how open our economy will be. | 一种信念是,美国必须处理的事情之一是,如同它与欧洲的关系一样,我们如何处理不同国家以及我们的经济将如何开放,这将会是一条国家路线. |
| 394 | There are no state-owned enterprises in the United States. | 美国没有国有企业. |
| 395 | And so what is it like to have a competitive trade environment in which countries have different abilities to advance corporate interests? | 因此,在各国有不同能力促进公司利益的竞争性贸易环境中,是什么感觉? |
| 396 | So I think that may be less of a partisan issue than it was in the past and more of a consensus issue. | 因此,我认为,这可能不是过去那样的党派问题,而是更多的共识问题。 |
| 397 | Mofi, I hope I'm pronouncing your name correctly, asked, to what extent does disinformation on social media accelerate polarization? | Mofi, 我希望我正确宣布你的名字, 问, |
| 398 | So this is one where I am not an expert, but there seems to be real concern that disinformation is making it easier for not the average person, let's say, but for relatively fringe people, people who are inclined to be skeptical, to avoid being exposed to | 因此,这是我不是一个专家的地方, 但似乎真的有人担心, 假象正在使它变得更容易, 不是普通人,让我们说, 而是相对边缘的人, 那些倾向于怀疑的人, 以避免暴露在现实中。 |
| 399 | So you can avoid mainstream news, what's actually going on, and be exposed only to people who tell you what you want. | 这样你就可以避开主流新闻, 真正发生的事情, 并且只能接触到那些 告诉你想要什么的人。 |
| 400 | It's obviously very hard to study this because a great deal of communication takes place privately. | 这显然很难研究,因为大量的交流是私下进行的. |
| 401 | And I worry about this. | 我担心这个 |
| 402 | I worry about this in part because the big change in the United States has been the decline of independent local newspapers. | 我担心的部分原因是美国的重大变化是独立的地方报纸的衰落. |
| 403 | And so if you think that in the past, most Americans read about what was going on in their community and read about local politicians in a newspaper, the local news media market in the United States has been destroyed by the internet because newspapers us | 所以如果你认为过去,大多数美国人 都读到他们社区里发生的事情, 在报纸上读到当地政客, 美国的当地新闻媒体市场被网络所摧毁, 因为报纸过去通过出售广告赚钱, 现在没有人去报纸上做广告。 |
| 404 | It's in some ways the absence of local news that has led to us filling our knowledge of the world with national news, so not news about what's going on, and social media. | 在某些方面,地方新闻的缺失导致我们用全国性新闻充斥着我们对于世界的了解,所以不是新闻,而是社交媒体. |
| 405 | I think this is an ongoing area of concern and we don't have a good answer. | 我认为这是一个持续关注的领域,我们没有很好的答案. |
| 406 | One reassuring fact is that most Americans don't use social media for their news. | 一个令人安心的事实是,大多数美国人不使用社交媒体来获取新闻. |
| 407 | I like to remind people that the number of people on Twitter is very, very small compared to the American population. | 我想提醒人们,在Twitter上的人数与美国人口相比非常,非常少. |
| 408 | It just so happens that it's almost everybody who's an academic or a college professor or people in this room, and we're not like ordinary people. | 恰巧,几乎每个人都是 学术或大学教授或人 在这个房间里,我们不是普通人。 |
| 409 | And that's probably a good thing because most people are getting their news from TV, and so they're watching what is much less partisan than social media. | 这可能是个好事,因为大多数人都从电视上得到新闻, 所以他们看到的是比社交媒体少得多的党派。 |
| 410 | Jihang asks, to what extent would you comment that the Democratic Party has taken both House and Senate majorities would lead to more likely polarized policies? | JiHang问,你对民主党既占据众议院多数,又占据参议院多数,会在多大程度上导致更可能两极分化的政策发表评论? |
| 411 | Well, clearly in the United States having control of both the legislature and the presidency means it will be much easier for the president to get things done. | 很明显,在美国, 既控制了立法机构 也控制了总统, 这意味着总统将更容易 得到事情做。 |
| 412 | There are still features of the American political system that make it hard for majorities to get things done, and one of the most important institutions is the filibuster in the United States Senate. | 美国政治制度仍有一些特征,使得多数人很难把事情办好,最重要的机构之一是美国参议院的虚构者. |
| 413 | The filibuster is a rule that says that you need 60% of members to vote to end a debate before you can have a vote on something. | 虚构者是一条规则,规定你需要60%的成员投票才能结束辩论,然后才能对某事进行表决. |
| 414 | So in fact, having a bare majority does not mean that you can just do whatever you want, so it's not like a European parliamentary system. | 所以事实上,拥有一个赤裸裸的多数并不代表你可以随便做什么,所以这不像一个欧洲议会制度. |
| 415 | I think it is much more likely now that we will get substantial policy change to take place. | 我认为,现在我们更有可能进行实质性的政策改革。 |
| 416 | What that policy change looks like I think is less likely to be radically liberal than it is simply likely to take place, because it's still the case that you're going to have to get moderates to go along. | 政策改变看起来 与其说是完全自由的 不如说是完全自由的 因为你还是得让温和派加入 |
| 417 | Yes, so I think that's the answer is the other thing that matters a great deal is that there are certain things that are not subject to the filibuster, and those include large budget bills, so at least passing the president's budget will become much easie | 是的,所以我认为,答案是另一件事, 很重要的是,有些事情是不受虚构者支配的, 那些包括大笔预算法案, 所以至少通过总统的预算会变得容易得多。 |
| 418 | But remember, the Senate is still tied. | 但记住,参议院仍然被束缚 |
| 419 | So the vice president is going to actually have to show up to vote to break ties, which means that's how close it is. | 因此,副总统实际上必须出席投票,以断绝关系,这就是说,这是多么的接近. |
| 420 | And so it's not you know it's not unusual for a senator to die, to pass away, and the house has a similarly thin margin so it's going to be very hard for Democrats to get things done, they're going to have to be very careful. | 所以,你并不知道,参议员死,逝去,这并非不寻常,而且这个房子也有相似的微弱边际,所以民主党人很难把事情办好,他们必须非常小心. |
| 421 | Jesse asked the question. | 杰西问了这个问题。 |
| 422 | You mentioned the inefficiency and dealing with disagreement between the two parties. | 你提到效率低下,处理双方的分歧。 |
| 423 | How do you how do you unify both parties towards key issues that are related to the interests of the nation as a whole. | 你如何统一双方,共同解决关系到整个民族利益的重大问题. |
| 424 | So, so one area in which we've seen this, I think, already, and this perhaps speaks to the, to the role of President Trump is that American foreign policy towards Russia is likely to change pretty radically in the next six weeks. | 因此,我认为,我们已经看到了一个领域, 这或许可以说明, 特朗普总统的作用是, 美国对俄罗斯的外交政策在未来六个星期里可能会发生巨大的变化。 |
| 425 | And that's because the average elected Democrat, and almost all of the Republican senators view Russia is a serious threat. | 而这是因为平均当选的民主党人,几乎所有共和党参议员都认为俄罗斯是一个严重的威胁. |
| 426 | And while President Trump did not. | 而特朗普总统则没有. |
| 427 | And because President Trump was the president, our policy towards the Russia did not reflect the average opinion so so on areas where the parties agree that our political system is relatively effective at generating policies that address those issues. | 由于特朗普总统是总统,我们对俄罗斯的政策没有反映出各方同意我们的政治制度在制定解决这些问题的政策方面相对有效的一般意见。 |
| 428 | I'm not sure what other issues, we actually have agreement about that are pressing one might be trade towards China, where I think there is a feeling that their complete open markets are not maybe the long term solution, I don't know what the alternative | 我不确定其他什么问题, 我们实际上已经同意了, 一个紧迫的问题可能是对中国的贸易, 我认为有一种感觉, 他们完全开放的市场也许不是长期的解决办法, 我不知道什么是替代方案。 |
| 429 | That's a that's more contentious than policy towards China. | 这比对中国的政策更具争议性. |
| 430 | But a lot of other areas where Americans disagree about tax reform, for example, I think we're likely to see continued division that reflects the fact that Americans don't agree about what the right policy is. | 但是,其他许多美国人对税收改革有不同意见的领域,例如,我认为我们很可能会看到持续的分裂,这反映出美国人对什么是正确的政策并不认同. |
| 431 | So, see, see, I'm, again, I'm sorry if I'm pronouncing your name incorrectly, can you elaborate on the polarization within the media is in the United States. | 所以,你看,我再次表示,我很抱歉 如果我不正确地宣布你的名字, 你能详细说明一下媒体内部的两极分化 在美国。 |
| 432 | So, in the United States, there are there are basically two types of media, there's the what we call the mainstream media. | 因此,在美国,基本上有两种类型的媒体,这就是我们所说的主流媒体. |
| 433 | And then we think of the partisan media so the mainstream media would encompass most daily newspapers, which, while they might have slight | 然后我们想到党派媒体 所以主流媒体 将包含大多数的日报, 虽然它们可能有轻微的 |
| 434 | ideological slant, they might lean left or lean right, subscribe to basic journalistic standards of reporting. | 意识形态倾向,他们可能左倾或右倾,赞同基本的新闻报道标准。 |
| 435 | And the idea of being you report things based on factual evidence, you write reports based on facts, rather than having reports based on opinions. | 而作为你根据事实证据报告事物的想法,你根据事实写报告,而不是根据意见写报告. |
| 436 | We think of that same mainstream media approach as characterizing the major network news. | 我们同样认为主流媒体是主要网络新闻的特点。 |
| 437 | 因此,ABC,NBC,CBS和CNN. | |
| 438 | And then there's what we think of as partisan media or more more ideological media and on the right, the prime example is Fox News. | 然后,我们又认为是党派媒体或更多的意识形态媒体, 在右边,主要的例子就是福克斯新闻。 |
| 439 | And on the left, the prime example is MSNBC. | 而在左边,主要的例子是MSNBC. |
| 440 | What's interesting about that partisan media is that it's much less their normal news coverage and much more their commentary. | 有趣的是,那支党派媒体 与其说是正常的新闻报道,不如说是评论。 |
| 441 | So if you've ever been to the United States or just watched Fox News, most of the evening is not taken up with news reporting, it's taken up with commentary. | 所以如果你去过美国 或者只是看福克斯新闻, 晚上的大部分时间 都没有被报道, 它被评论。 |
| 442 | And that is one of the things I talked about that you might be worried about, which is lots of people when they say they're watching the news, aren't watching news, they're watching people just talk about politics. | 这就是我所谈论的你可能担心的事之一, 很多人都说,他们正在看新闻, 不看新闻,他们只看人们谈论政治。 |
| 443 | And those are not generally bipartisan conversations, they're not fact based conversations, they're opinions, they're op-eds. | 这些不是一般的两党对话,不是基于事实的对话,是观点,是论坛版. |
| 444 | And the good news about them is not that many people watch them, but it's still something like a quarter of Americans regularly watch partisan media, but it's only a quarter. | 而关于他们的好消息并不是很多人看他们,但还是像四分之一的美国人经常看党派媒体一样,只是四分之一而已. |
| 445 | It's certainly more of a concern in terms of its reach than is social media, simply because the partisan social media, simply because many more Americans watch Fox News than are on Twitter. | 这当然比社交媒体更引人关注, 仅仅是因为党派社交媒体, |
| 446 | MSNBC也一样. | |
| 447 | Relatively few people watch MSNBC, but many more people watch MSNBC than spend their time getting their political news from Twitter. | 相对来说,观看MSNBC的人很少,但观看MSNBC的人比花时间从Twitter上获取政治新闻的人多得多. |
| 448 | How do you evaluate the mobility of U.S. society compared to the 1970s? | 与1970年代相比,你如何评价美国社会的流动性? |
| 449 | The difference between the elites and the ignorant masses is enlarging. | 精英阶层和无知的群众之间的差异正在扩大。 |
| 450 | So I guess I would say there are two parts to this question. | 所以我想说这个问题有两个部分。 |
| 451 | The first is, what's the difference in what people know between the elites and the masses? | 第一,人们知道精英和群众之间有什么区别? |
| 452 | What's the knowledge? | 有甚么知识. |
| 453 | And then there's a second question about economic mobility. | 之后还有第二个关于经济流动性的问题. |
| 454 | So the first observation is that like China, the United States has undergone a vast change since the 1970s, which is that many more people have gone to college and gone to high school. | 所以第一个观察是,像中国一样,美国自1970年代以来经历了巨大的变化,那就是更多的人上了大学,上了高中. |
| 455 | So the proportion of Americans who have graduated from high school and then the proportion of Americans who have graduated from college has increased substantially. | 因此,从高中毕业的美国人比例,以及后来从大学毕业的美国人比例都大幅上升. |
| 456 | So in fact, compared to the 1970s, many more people are educated in this country. | 所以事实上,与1970年代相比,这个国家有更多的人受教育. |
| 457 | And I read a fair bit about changes in China. | 我读了一点中国的变化 |
| 458 | Similarly, the proportion of Chinese people who have graduated from high school or the equivalent of high school and universities has increased dramatically. | 同样,高中毕业或相当于高中和大学毕业的中国人的比例也急剧上升. |
| 459 | So when we think about one big change, it's just that the American public is much better educated than it was historically. | 所以,当我们想到一个大的变化时, 只是美国公众的教育程度比历史要高得多。 |
| 460 | So I don't know if I would feel feel at all safe saying that there's more ignorant or more unaware of people than there ever were. | 所以我不知道我是否会觉得安全 说人们的无知或无知 比以前更多。 |
| 461 | In fact, I think it's just the opposite. | 事实上,我觉得恰恰相反。 |
| 462 | At the same time, economic mobility has gone down. | 与此同时,经济流动性下降。 |
| 463 | And when we think about what we mean by that, your chances of moving up the economic ladder have declined in part because the returns to education have gone up so much. | 当我们想到我们的意思时, 你升上经济阶梯的几率下降, 部分原因是教育回报率上升了很多。 |
| 464 | So if you do not have a college degree in the United States, your chances of doing pretty well in the economy have gone down a lot. | 所以如果你在美国没有大学学位, 你的经济表现相当好的机会 已经下降了很多。 |
| 465 | But that's a universal phenomena around the world where the returns to skill and the returns to education have gone up. | 但是,这是全世界普遍的现象, 技术的回归和教育的回归已经上升。 |
| 466 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 467 | that however makes educational differences even more salient. | 然而,这使得教育差异更加突出。 |
| 468 | And so if you can't go to university, | 所以如果你不能上大学 |
| 469 | you can imagine that it has political ramifications. | 你可以想象它有政治影响。 |
| 470 | And one important political ramification is | 一个重要的政治偏见是 |
| 471 | people who can't expect to move up in the economic system | 无法指望在经济体系中升迁的人 |
| 472 | might be much more skeptical | 也许更怀疑 |
| 473 | of the health of the political system. | 政治制度的健康。 |
| 474 | And so I think the decline in economic mobility | 所以我认为经济流动性下降 |
| 475 | helps us understand somewhat populism | 帮助我们理解一些民粹主义 |
| 476 | or concerns about trade | 或对贸易的关切 |
| 477 | because people aren't doing nearly as well off | 因为人们没有这么好 |
| 478 | as they had hoped to do. | 和他们希望的一样 |
| 479 | Okay, I have a question from Bob here. | 好吧,我有一个问题 从鲍勃在这里。 |
| 480 | Oh, so Bob asked the question like, | 哦,所以鲍勃问的问题喜欢, |
| 481 | how nonpartisan is the nonpartisan media | 无党派的媒体是怎样的 |
| 482 | in the United States? | 在美国? |
| 483 | It's interesting. | 这很有趣。 |
| 484 | You can find reports on the right | 你可以在右边找到报告 |
| 485 | that characterize the mass media, | 大众传媒的特点, |
| 486 | the mainstream media as biased against conservatives. | 主流媒体对保守派的偏见。 |
| 487 | For example, they talk all about how terrible COVID is. | 例如,他们谈论了COVID有多可怕. |
| 488 | They won't cover the Hunter Biden laptop scandal. | 他们不会报道猎人拜登的电脑丑闻 |
| 489 | And then you can go to the left | 然后你可以去左边 |
| 490 | and find the same reports | 并找到同样的报告 |
| 491 | that complain that the mainstream media, for example, | 抱怨主流媒体,例如, |
| 492 | covers protests against police violence | 包括抗议警察暴力 |
| 493 | and notes how violent the protesters are | 并且注意到抗议者的暴力程度 |
| 494 | without pointing out that more Americans | 而不指出更多美国人 |
| 495 | are killed by the police every day | 每天被警察杀害 |
| 496 | than protesters killed police during the entire summer | 比整个夏天的抗议者杀了警察 |
| 497 | of anti-violence, anti-police protests. | 反暴力 反警察抗议 |
| 498 | So partially it's a question of like, | 所以部分地,这是一个问题 像, |
| 499 | how are we going to judge what the standard is | 我们如何判断标准是什么? |
| 500 | for what it means for the media to be nonpartisan? | 媒体是无党派人士意味着什么? |
| 501 | And part of this also asks a question about | 这部分还问到一个问题: |
| 502 | at what point in time does something become | 什么时候才有结果 |
| 503 | a newsworthy story? | 新闻新闻? |
| 504 | And there is a question of whether or not | 还有一个问题 是否 |
| 505 | journalistic ethics are themselves biased | 新闻道德本身就有偏见 |
| 506 | towards the left or the right | 左右两侧 |
| 507 | or just towards the government. | 或者只是对政府。 |
| 508 | So for example, if to report on a story, | 举例来说,如果报道一个故事, |
| 509 | you need someone to say something | 你需要有人说话 |
| 510 | or be willing to say something on the record, | 或者愿意在记录里说点什么, |
| 511 | you can imagine that biases against reporting certain things | 你可以想象那种对报道某些事情的偏见 |
| 512 | that are critical of the government | 批评政府 |
| 513 | because certain people might not be willing | 因为某些人可能不愿意 |
| 514 | to make those statements. | 以发表这些声明。 |
| 515 | So I tend to think that it is the case | 所以我觉得是这样 |
| 516 | that mainstream media is little C conservative. | 主流媒体很保守 |
| 517 | They won't report as much on fringe arguments. | 他们不会报告这么多关于边缘争论。 |
| 518 | I think that's true on the left and the right. | 我想左右两侧都是这样 |
| 519 | I do think that the coverage of COVID in the United States | 我确实认为 COVID在美国的报道 |
| 520 | has tended to ignore how bad COVID has been in Europe | 已经忽略了COVID在欧洲有多糟糕 |
| 521 | and how good it's been in Asia. | 以及它在亚洲有多好。 |
| 522 | And so you might imagine if you're an American | 所以你可以想象 如果你是一个美国人 |
| 523 | that you think that the COVID pandemic | 你认为COVID大流行 |
| 524 | has gone terribly in the United States, but nowhere else. | 在美国已经走得很惨 但别的地方都没有 |
| 525 | In fact, it's gone terribly almost everywhere. | 事实上,它几乎无处不在 |
| 526 | It's going terribly in Europe right now. | 它正在欧洲非常严重。 |
| 527 | It's gone better in islands nations | 岛屿国家情况好些了 |
| 528 | like Australia and New Zealand, | 像澳大利亚和新西兰, |
| 529 | and it's gone much better in Asia and we don't know why. | 在亚洲已经好得多了 我们不知道为什么 |
| 530 | And actually that is one of our, | 而这其实是我们的之一, |
| 531 | I think one of the things we really need to point out. | 我想我们真的需要指出一件事。 |
| 532 | So I found that the coverage of COVID | 所以我发现COVID的报道 |
| 533 | to be a little bit alarmist, | 有点惊慌 |
| 534 | but that's true of most public health coverage, | 但大多数公共健康保险都是这样 |
| 535 | which is it always focuses on the negative | 它总是关注负面 |
| 536 | and it's less good at the comparative reporting. | 比较报告比较好 |
| 537 | Abe asked, to what extent do you think that U.S. teens | 亚伯问,你认为美国十几岁 |
| 538 | are politically inactive? | 政治不活跃吗? |
| 539 | And I guess the comment is they seem more engaged | 我想评论是 他们似乎更投入 |
| 540 | than they have been historically, | 这是他们从历代以来的常道。 |
| 541 | but teenagers are teenagers | 但十几岁是十几岁 |
| 542 | and they have a lot of other things going on. | 他们有很多其他的事情 |
| 543 | And there's a period of transition into young adulthood | 还有一段向青壮年过渡的时期 |
| 544 | in which most people become more political. | 在其中,大多数人变得更加政治化。 |
| 545 | That period, however, also coincides with many changes | 然而,这一时期也伴随着许多变化 |
| 546 | in life that make it harder to participate in politics. | 更难参政 |
| 547 | So Americans who are younger move a lot more, | 因此,年轻美国人 移动很多, |
| 548 | they go to university and they're working, | 他们上大学,他们工作, |
| 549 | they're working a lot, they're starting families, | 他们工作很多, 他们开始家庭, |
| 550 | they're dating, all of those things | 他们在约会,所有这些事情 |
| 551 | distract them from politics. | 分散他们的政治注意力 |
| 552 | And so historically younger Americans | 如此年轻的美国人 |
| 553 | turn out at lower rates. | 以较低的价格出现。 |
| 554 | However, in 2020, | 然而,在2020年, |
| 555 | turnout among young Americans was up a great deal. | 美国年轻人的投票率很高。 |
| 556 | So compared to 2016, | 因此与2016年相比, |
| 557 | there seems to be a great deal of engagement. | 似乎有许多参与。 |
| 558 | And so in the United States, | 所以在美国, |
| 559 | you earn the right to vote at 18. | 18岁时获得投票权 |
| 560 | And that's one of the ways in which we can think | 这就是我们思考的方式之一 |
| 561 | the political system doesn't give you much of an incentive | 政治制度没有给你多少奖励 |
| 562 | to pay attention prior to turning 18. | 在18岁之前注意 |
| 563 | There are proposals to reduce the voting age to 17. | 有人建议将投票年龄降低到17岁。 |
| 564 | And then as a parent of teenagers, | 然后作为青少年的父母, |
| 565 | I might ask, do I want my 17-year-old daughter voting | 我可能会问,我是否想要 我17岁的女儿投票 |
| 566 | or are they ready? | 还是他们准备好了? |
| 567 | I'd be okay with 17-year-olds voting. | 17岁的人可以投票 |
| 568 | My guess is few would, | 我猜是很少会 |
| 569 | that they're still doing other things. | 他们还在做别的事 |
| 570 | And I think that's the biggest thing. | 我认为这是最大的事情。 |
| 571 | But they're not inactive. | 但他们不是不活跃的。 |
| 572 | I think that would be a mischaracterization. | 我认为,这将是一个错误的描述。 |
| 573 | Oh, Zoe asked, well, how does party identity interact | 哦,佐伊问,嗯, 党的身份如何互动 |
| 574 | with other kinds of identity? | 还有其他身份? |
| 575 | And I think this is one area | 我认为这是一个领域 |
| 576 | that we're really actively studying | 我们正积极学习 |
| 577 | in the United States right now. | 现在在美国。 |
| 578 | You might imagine, for example, | 你也许可以想象,比如, |
| 579 | based on reading about the gender divide | 根据关于性别鸿沟的阅读结果 |
| 580 | in the United States that 85% of women are Democrats | 在美国,85%的妇女是民主党人 |
| 581 | and 85% of men are Republicans. | 85%的男性是共和党人。 |
| 582 | But in fact, it's just that women are about | 但事实上,只是女人在 |
| 583 | five points more democratic than you would expect. | 比你想象的要民主五点 |
| 584 | And men are about five points more Republican. | 男人比共和党人多五分 |
| 585 | So even though gender issues were very salient | 因此,尽管性别问题非常突出 |
| 586 | during President Trump's presidency, | 在川普总统任总统期间 |
| 587 | it's not the case that men and women are hugely polarized. | 男人和女人不是两极分化 |
| 588 | They're just enduring differences | 他们只是忍耐分歧 |
| 589 | between them and their partisanship. | 他们和他们的党派之间 |
| 590 | Likewise, I showed you about class | 同样的,我教你上课 |
| 591 | that wealthy Americans are not overwhelmingly Republican, | 有钱的美国人不是绝大多数的共和党人, |
| 592 | like you would expect if you thought they were just voting | 就像你以为他们只是投票一样 |
| 593 | based on what was good for them | 基于什么对他们有好处 |
| 594 | in terms of economic policy. | 经济政策方面。 |
| 595 | Race is a little more mixed in the United States. | 种族在美国比较多一点混合. |
| 596 | African-Americans remain overwhelmingly Democratic, | 非裔美国人仍然占绝大多数 |
| 597 | but most other ethnic groups are quite divided. | 但大多数其他种族群体却相当分裂。 |
| 598 | So for example, Latinos in the United States | 例如美国的拉美裔 |
| 599 | are becoming more Republican | 越来越共和党人 |
| 600 | and Asian-Americans are quite evenly divided. | 而亚裔美国人的分布相当均匀. |
| 601 | So the parties have groups that are allied with them | 於是各派都有同盟, |
| 602 | on average, but those divisions are not nearly as stark | 平均来说,但是这些部门没有那么明显 |
| 603 | as you would believe from the way that we talk | 就像你会相信 从我们说话的方式 |
| 604 | about the Democratic Party as the party of poor people, | 民主党是穷人的政党, |
| 605 | women, and people of color. | 女人,还有有色人种 |
| 606 | That doesn't accurately describe the party. | 这并不能准确描述党。 |
| 607 | I mean, Latinos in the United States | 我的意思是,在美国的拉美人 |
| 608 | move substantially right, | 移动的大致正确, |
| 609 | more Republican in the last election. | 在上届大选中更加共和党人. |
| 610 | And that's a really main event point | 这是一个真正的主要事件点 |
| 611 | that the political system needs to be talking about. | 政治制度需要谈论。 |
| 612 | That's contrary to this notion that it's about groups. | 这违背了这个概念,即它涉及团体. |
| 613 | Could you elaborate a little bit more on the Latino vote | 你能再详细解释一下拉丁裔的投票吗? |
| 614 | and why, I mean, it would seem, | 以及为什么,我的意思是, 它似乎, |
| 615 | at least from a kind of social political perspective, | 至少从某种社会政治角度看 |
| 616 | it seems kind of unimaginable given the rhetoric of Trump. | 从特朗普的言论来看,这似乎是难以想象的。 |
| 617 | Well, I think that when you say that someone is a Latino | 我想当你说某人是拉丁裔 |
| 618 | or a Hispanic in the United States, | 或在美国的西班牙人, |
| 619 | that's an enormously large group of people. | 这是一大群人 |
| 620 | It's a little bit like saying someone's a European American | 这有点像说某人是欧洲美国人 |
| 621 | and lumping together everybody who's emigrated | 将所有移民的人混在一起 |
| 622 | to the United States for the first 250 years | 前250年致美国 |
| 623 | of our political history, or 350 years. | 我们的政治历史,或350年。 |
| 624 | So in the case of the term Latino or Hispanic, | 在拉丁语或西班牙语中 |
| 625 | we mean very different groups. | 我们是指非常不同的群体。 |
| 626 | By far the biggest group right now | 目前最大的团体 |
| 627 | is people who are of Mexican heritage. | 他们都是墨西哥人 |
| 628 | And many of those groups have been in the United States | 其中许多团体在美国 |
| 629 | for hundreds of years. | 数百年。 |
| 630 | Those groups tend to lean somewhat left, | 这些团体倾向于向左倾斜, |
| 631 | but they're not the only group. | 但他们不是唯一的团体。 |
| 632 | There's a more recent group of immigrants | 最近有一群移民 |
| 633 | from Latin America, as well as people from other countries, | 拉丁美洲以及其他国家的人民, |
| 634 | Cuba, Brazil, elsewhere. | 古巴、巴西、别处。 |
| 635 | Those groups are not nearly as socially | 这些团体在社会上并不像 |
| 636 | or economically liberal. | 或经济自由。 |
| 637 | And so when we call a group Latino or Hispanic, | 所以,当我们叫一个组拉丁语或西班牙语, |
| 638 | we're actually mixing up many different groups. | 我们实际上混合了很多不同的群体。 |
| 639 | And it's very different the experience | 经历很不一样 |
| 640 | of someone of Mexican heritage in California | 墨西哥在加利福尼亚的遗产 |
| 641 | than let's say the experience of someone | 比说某人的经历 |
| 642 | from South America and Cuba in Florida. | 来自佛罗里达州的南美和古巴 |
| 643 | And I think this is one way in which | 我认为这是一种方式 |
| 644 | we would like to conveniently call people by a group, | 我们想方便的叫人 一个团体, |
| 645 | but they won't even call themselves by that group. | 但他们甚至不会 自称为这个团体。 |
| 646 | So Cuban-Americans do not call themselves Latinos. | 所以古巴裔美国人并不自称拉丁裔. |
| 647 | They call themselves Cuban. | 他们自称古巴人。 |
| 648 | And Mexican-Americans often don't use the term Hispanic. | 而墨西哥裔美国人也经常不使用西班牙语这一术语. |
| 649 | They'll say they're Mexican-Americans. | 他们会说他们是墨西哥裔美国人。 |
| 650 | And these groups, they're heterogeneous. | 这些团体是不同的。 |
| 651 | And then the other thing is that | 还有一件事 |
| 652 | they're like a lot of other Americans, | 他们就像很多其他美国人一样, |
| 653 | they're cross-pressured. | 它们是交叉压力。 |
| 654 | They might be low income, | 他们可能低收入, |
| 655 | but many Latinos in the United States | 但在美国许多拉美人 |
| 656 | are Catholic and religious. | 天主教徒和宗教人士。 |
| 657 | And on that basis, they have conservative social views. | 在此基础上,他们有保守的社会观点. |
| 658 | And so our assumption that just because | 所以,我们的假设 只是因为 |
| 659 | of the color of their skin, | 他们的皮肤的颜色, |
| 660 | that they would be democratic does not seem to be true. | 他们将民主,似乎并非如此。 |
| 661 | Great, thanks. | 很好 谢谢 |
| 662 | All right, I guess we're running up | 好吧,我想我们跑起来 |
| 663 | towards the end of our time. | 我们的时代即将结束 |
| 664 | I guess one last call for questions | 我想是最后一个问题 |
| 665 | and then we can wrap up. | 然后我们可以结束。 |
| 666 | I will say while I'm waiting | 我会说,当我等待 |
| 667 | that when I woke up and began this talk, | 当我醒来并开始这个谈话, |
| 668 | it was pitch black and now the sun is up. | 现在太阳升起 |
| 669 | So I'm looking forward to breakfast. | 所以我期待着早餐。 |
| 670 | Yes. | 对 |
| 671 | I guess it doesn't look like | 我想这看起来不像 |
| 672 | there are any pressing questions. | 有一些紧迫的问题。 |
| 673 | So I guess I'll ask one sort of... | 所以我想我要问一种... |
| 674 | Okay, well, well, if I ask a question, | 好吧,如果我问一个问题, |
| 675 | which is actually kind of similar | 这其实有点相似 |
| 676 | to what I was gonna ask. | 我本来想问的 |
| 677 | Well, first question is, are there, | 好吧,第一个问题是, 有没有, |
| 678 | as there are so many factions, | 因为有这么多派别, |
| 679 | what's the secret to unite them as one? | 把他们团结在一起有什么秘密? |
| 680 | And I guess mine is sort of a similar question, | 我猜我的是一个类似的问题, |
| 681 | which is I'm assuming you've sort of done the analysis | 我猜你已经分析过了 |
| 682 | of all these different factors. | 所有这些不同因素。 |
| 683 | And is there a clear indication | 有明显的迹象吗? |
| 684 | of sort of what are the major factors | 那种什么是主要因素 |
| 685 | that affect how people vote | 影响人们投票的方式 |
| 686 | or kind of perceive the parties? | 或那种感觉 政党? |
| 687 | I mean, at least anecdotally, it seems, | 我的意思是,至少传闻, 它似乎, |
| 688 | people who tend to be democratic | 倾向于民主的人 |
| 689 | are more socially kind of minded | 更具有社会意识 |
| 690 | and Republicans tend to be more economically minded. | 共和党人往往在经济上更受关注。 |
| 691 | Is that true? | 是吗? |
| 692 | And what are all the different kind of factors there? | 这些不同的因素是什么? |
| 693 | Sure, so Moffey's question was, | 当然,所以莫菲的问题是, |
| 694 | what do we need to unite us? | 我们需要什么来团结我们? |
| 695 | And historically, the answer is we need an adversary. | 历史上,答案是 我们需要一个对手。 |
| 696 | And the, you know, I always, the question is like, | 而且,你知道,我总是, 问题是这样的, |
| 697 | if you read American political history, | 如果你读美国政治史 |
| 698 | one of the fascinating things to know | 令人着迷的事情之一 |
| 699 | is that prior to the American entry into World War II, | 是在美国进入二战之前 |
| 700 | President Roosevelt wants to enter the war | 罗斯福总统想参战 |
| 701 | and he's concerned about Hitler | 他担心希特勒 |
| 702 | and he's concerned about Japan | 他关心日本 |
| 703 | and is trying behind the scenes | 并试图在幕后 |
| 704 | to support the Chinese nationalists | 支持中国民族主义者 |
| 705 | and provide money to fight Japan | 并为抗日提供资金 |
| 706 | and provide money to Great Britain. | 并且为英国提供资金。 |
| 707 | And there's a strong isolationist party | 还有一个强烈的孤立主义政党 |
| 708 | in the United States that's doing everything it can | 美国正在尽其所能 |
| 709 | to stop American entry into the war. | 阻止美国进入战争 |
| 710 | We now know that there were actually German agents | 我们现在知道实际上有德国特工 |
| 711 | running around the United States | 环绕美国 |
| 712 | in the late 30s and early 1940s, | 30年代末和1940年代初, |
| 713 | providing money to support groups | 向支助团体提供资金 |
| 714 | that were opposed to the war to keep us out of the war. | 他们反对战争 阻止我们参战 |
| 715 | And then what happens? | 然后会发生什么? |
| 716 | The Japanese bomb Pearl Harbor | 日本的珍珠港炸弹 |
| 717 | and two days later, the United States Congress | 两天后,美国国会 |
| 718 | or a day later, the United States Congress | 或一天后,美国国会 |
| 719 | with I think two no votes endorses going to war. | 我想两票不赞成开战 |
| 720 | And so whatever isolationist tendencies existed | 所以不管有什么孤立主义倾向 |
| 721 | were gone almost instantly. | 几乎瞬间就走了 |
| 722 | And so a common adversary | 一个普通的对手 |
| 723 | is the easiest way to unite the United States. | 是最容易统一美国的方法 |
| 724 | And that's been true for long periods of time. | 这已经是很久以前的事了 |
| 725 | And one question is, why wasn't COVID that adversary? | 一个问题是 为什么COVID不是那个对手? |
| 726 | You know, it would have been a moment | 你知道,这将是一个时刻 |
| 727 | for a president to say, we face an enormous common threat. | 总统说,我们面临巨大的共同威胁。 |
| 728 | Let us come together and work to solve this problem. | 让我们一起努力解决这个问题。 |
| 729 | And we can imagine a world | 我们可以想象一个世界 |
| 730 | in which our former president had done that. | 在其中,我们的前总统 这样做。 |
| 731 | And our former president was reelected by handy margins | 我们的前任总统通过权宜之计重新当选 |
| 732 | for working to unite the country against this adversary. | 努力团结国家对抗对手 |
| 733 | Now, we didn't see that. | 现在,我们没有看到。 |
| 734 | So that's the easy way to unite people, | 所以,这是简单的方法 团结人们, |
| 735 | find something they agree about. | 找到他们同意的东西 |
| 736 | Well, it's much harder when we have to unite around things | 嗯,这更难 当我们必须团结在事物上 |
| 737 | that we disagree about. | 我们不同意这一点。 |
| 738 | And I think one question there is, | 我想有一个问题 |
| 739 | well, what are the things that people are deciding on | 那么,什么是事物 人们决定 |
| 740 | when they're deciding how to vote? | 当他们决定如何投票时? |
| 741 | And I think I divide the electorate into two big groups. | 我想我把选民分成两个大团体。 |
| 742 | I divide the electorate into a group of people | 我将选民分成一群人 |
| 743 | who have an issue that they care a great deal about. | 他们有一个问题 他们非常关心。 |
| 744 | And there's really only one party that's right for them. | 而且只有一方适合他们 |
| 745 | So if I am someone who is concerned foremost | 如果我是最关心的人 |
| 746 | about global warming, | 关于全球变暖, |
| 747 | and I think of this as the systemic threat | 我认为这是系统性的威胁 |
| 748 | to the United States and to the world. | 对美国和世界。 |
| 749 | In the United States, | 在美国, |
| 750 | I should probably vote for the Democratic party. | 我该投民主党的票 |
| 751 | If on the other hand, my concern is the issue of abortion. | 另一方面,我关注的是堕胎问题。 |
| 752 | And I think that there are more people killed via abortion | 我认为更多的人死于堕胎 |
| 753 | on any given year than most other ways. | 在任何特定年份,比其他方式。 |
| 754 | And that's my single most important issue. | 这是我最重要的问题 |
| 755 | Then I should probably vote for the Republican party. | 那我应该投共和党一票 |
| 756 | Lots of Americans fall into those categories. | 许多美国人属于这些类别。 |
| 757 | They know what party's right for them. | 他们知道什么派对适合他们 |
| 758 | But about a quarter of the American public | 但大约四分之一的美国公众 |
| 759 | could vote for either party. | 可投票给任何一方。 |
| 760 | And maybe they vote based on specific issues | 也许他们根据具体问题投票 |
| 761 | mattering at specific times, | 在特定时间, |
| 762 | or maybe they vote based on performance, | 或者他们根据表现投票 |
| 763 | the performance of the economy, | 经济表现, |
| 764 | the performance of how the country's doing | 国家的表现 |
| 765 | 在面对COVID。 | |
| 766 | And they may be the most interesting group. | 他们可能是最有趣的群体。 |
| 767 | And they're an interesting group | 他们是一个有趣的团体 |
| 768 | because they decide elections. | 因为他们决定选举。 |
| 769 | And I like to remind people that at the end of the day, | 我想提醒大家,在一天结束时, |
| 770 | that's the group we need to study, | 这就是我们需要学习的团体, |
| 771 | not the group that I can predict | 而不是我能预测的团体 |
| 772 | how they're gonna vote in 2024 already. | 2024年他们怎么投票? |
| 773 | Because I know which party they're gonna support. | 因为我知道他们会支持哪个派对 |
| 774 | But the group of people who could support either party. | 但那些可以支持任何一方的人 |
| 775 | And that's people, they care about abortion, | 他们关心堕胎 |
| 776 | but they also care about the environment. | 但他们也关心环境。 |
| 777 | Or they care about trade policy, | 或者他们关心贸易政策, |
| 778 | but they also care about growth | 但他们也关心增长 |
| 779 | and they care about education. | 他们关心教育 |
| 780 | Lots more people are in those categories, I think, | 更多的人在这些类别,我认为, |
| 781 | than we normally give them credit for. | 比我们通常的功劳。 |
| 782 | And one of the jobs of a political leader | 政治领袖的工作之一 |
| 783 | is to try to figure out issues where most Americans agree | 试图找出大多数美国人同意的问题 |
| 784 | and emphasize those issues if we want to change policy. | 如果我们想改变政策,就强调这些问题。 |
| 785 | All right, fantastic. | 伐 |
| 786 | Thank you so much for a most insightful talk. | 非常感谢你非常有洞察力的谈话 |
| 787 | Our tradition is that I ask everybody | 我们的传统是 我问每个人 |
| 788 | to unmute themselves and to turn on their camera | 并打开相机 |
| 789 | so that we can take a group photo at the end. | 这样我们就可以在结尾拍一张集体照片。 |
| 790 | So we'll do that. | 所以,我们会做到这一点。 |
| 791 | And everybody can feel free to thank Professor Hubert | 每个人都可以自由地感谢休伯特教授 |
| 792 | as I unmute you all. | 就像我揭穿你们一样 |
| 793 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 794 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 795 | And for those of you that are hoping | 而你们中希望 |
| 796 | to return to the Yale campus, | 回到耶鲁大学校园 |
| 797 | I hope to see you in the fall | 我希望秋天能见到你 |
| 798 | when we can all be back in person. | 当我们都能够回到自己。 |
| 799 | It's been a long year from my secret lair, | 离我的秘密巢穴已经过了很长的一年 |
| 800 | which is my office at home. | 那是我家里的办公室 |
| 801 | I look forward to the return to in-person interaction. | 我期待着恢复面对面的互动。 |
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