贸易战是阶级战争：认识贸易战的另一个角度
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | Hi, good afternoon and good evening, especially to our speakers, Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis, | 嗨,下午好,晚上好, 特别是我们的演讲者,马修・克莱因和迈克尔・佩蒂斯, |
| 0:12 | as well as our audiences joining over Zoom, as well as through Yale Center Beijing's WeChat video | 透过耶鲁中心北京的微信视频 |
| 0:18 | channel. | 频道. |
| 0:19 | Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing and Yale University Press Find Your Next Great Read | 欢迎来到耶鲁中心 北京和耶鲁大学出版社 |
| 0:25 | series event featuring the 2021 Winel Gelber Book Prize winner Trade Wars or Class Wars. | 2021年Winel Gelber Book奖获奖者贸易战争或阶级战争系列活动。 |
| 0:33 | And thanks to the Yale University Press and Yale Center Beijing's program director Devin Lau, | 感谢耶鲁大学出版社和耶鲁中心北京的节目总监德文·劳, |
| 0:37 | we're delighted to be able to invite both authors to speak about this important book. | 我们很高兴能够邀请两位作者 来谈谈这本重要书 |
| 0:43 | 我是Carolee Rapporty 中心执行董事兼耶鲁大学校友 | |
| 0:48 | Before I introduce our distinguished guests and talk about the rundown of this event, | 在我介绍我们的贵宾 谈论这次活动失败之前 |
| 0:54 | I'd like to give a quick introduction about what Yale Center Beijing is. | 我想简单介绍一下耶鲁中心北京是什么. |
展开字幕全文（1174 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hi, good afternoon and good evening, especially to our speakers, Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis, | 嗨,下午好,晚上好, 特别是我们的演讲者,马修・克莱因和迈克尔・佩蒂斯, |
| 2 | as well as our audiences joining over Zoom, as well as through Yale Center Beijing's WeChat video | 透过耶鲁中心北京的微信视频 |
| 3 | channel. | 频道. |
| 4 | Welcome to this Yale Center Beijing and Yale University Press Find Your Next Great Read | 欢迎来到耶鲁中心 北京和耶鲁大学出版社 |
| 5 | series event featuring the 2021 Winel Gelber Book Prize winner Trade Wars or Class Wars. | 2021年Winel Gelber Book奖获奖者贸易战争或阶级战争系列活动。 |
| 6 | And thanks to the Yale University Press and Yale Center Beijing's program director Devin Lau, | 感谢耶鲁大学出版社和耶鲁中心北京的节目总监德文·劳, |
| 7 | we're delighted to be able to invite both authors to speak about this important book. | 我们很高兴能够邀请两位作者 来谈谈这本重要书 |
| 8 | 我是Carolee Rapporty 中心执行董事兼耶鲁大学校友 | |
| 9 | Before I introduce our distinguished guests and talk about the rundown of this event, | 在我介绍我们的贵宾 谈论这次活动失败之前 |
| 10 | I'd like to give a quick introduction about what Yale Center Beijing is. | 我想简单介绍一下耶鲁中心北京是什么. |
| 11 | Yale Center Beijing is | 耶鲁中心北京 |
| 12 | Yale University's only university-wide center outside of the US. | 耶鲁大学是美国以外唯一的全大学中心. |
| 13 | Founded in 2014, the Yale | 成立于2014年,耶鲁大学 |
| 14 | Center Beijing hosts programming like this almost every other day, where we convene leaders from | 北京中心几乎每隔一天 都会主持这样的节目 我们在这里召集领导人 |
| 15 | academia, business, government, and other sectors for thought-provoking conversations on the most | 学术界、商业界、政府和其他部门就 |
| 16 | important issues facing our world. | 我们的世界所面临的重要问题。 |
| 17 | For today's event, our distinguished speakers, Matthew Klein | 今天的演讲者 马修·克莱因 |
| 18 | and Michael Pettis, will present on their important new book, Trade Wars or Class Wars. | 迈克尔・佩提斯,将介绍 他们重要的新书, 贸易战争或阶级战争。 |
| 19 | 现在,这是2021年Winel Gelber Book Prize的评审团对这本书的看法. | |
| 20 | The book | 书 |
| 21 | tells the gripping story of how economic policies have generated inequality both within and between | 讲述了经济政策如何造成内部和相互之间不平等的故事。 |
| 22 | states and created global tensions and political polarization. | 并造成全球紧张局势和政治两极分化。 |
| 23 | The book combines political and | 该书将政治与 |
| 24 | economic analysis with short history to argue that domestic policies that advantage the rich | 短暂历史的经济分析认为,有利于富国的国内政策 |
| 25 | at the expense of workers produce not only strive at home but also deepen international rivalries. | 工人不仅在国内努力生产,而且加深了国际竞争。 |
| 26 | This book speaks powerfully and directly to one of the biggest challenges of our times. | 这本书有力和直接地谈到我们时代最大的挑战之一。 |
| 27 | And I was grateful to be able to speak with both authors and this book was written before COVID | 我很感激能和两位作者交谈 这本书是在COVID之前写的 |
| 28 | and now the rushing between conflicts. | 现在冲突之间急转直下 |
| 29 | So it'd be very interesting to hear them kind of comment on | 所以听到他们的评论会很有趣 |
| 30 | that this new context as well. | 新的环境。 |
| 31 | Matthew Klein is the economics commentator at Barron's and a Yale | 马修·克莱因是巴伦的经济学评论家 也是耶鲁大学的 |
| 32 | College alumnus. | 学院校友. |
| 33 | He has been called one of the most astute commentators on the global economy. | 他被称为全球经济最精明的评论家之一. |
| 34 | He's read across the world by central bankers, chief economists, academics, policy makers, | 他在世界各地读过中央银行家、首席经济学家、学者、决策者 |
| 35 | and investors. | 和投资者。 |
| 36 | And Klein has given background presentations to staffers of the UK Parliament, | 克莱因向英国议会工作人员做了背景介绍 |
| 37 | White House economic advisors, and officials at the European Commission. | 白宫经济顾问和欧洲委员会官员。 |
| 38 | He has over a decade of | 他已经十几年了 |
| 39 | experience studying the intersection of economics, public policy, and financial markets and has | 研究经济学、公共政策和金融市场的交汇点的经验 |
| 40 | written for The Economist, Bloomberg, The Financial Times, and Barrett's. | 为"经济学人","彭博","金融时报"和"巴雷特"撰稿. |
| 41 | He now runs The Overshoot, | 他现在掌管"过度射击" |
| 42 | which is a premium subscription research service dedicated to tracking the global economy. | 它是一种高额订阅研究服务,专门跟踪全球经济。 |
| 43 | Michael | 迈克尔 |
| 44 | Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management where he specializes in | Pettis是北京大学光华管理学院的教授,专攻于此. |
| 45 | Chinese financial markets. | 中国金融市场. |
| 46 | He has been in China for the past 20 years. | 他在中国已经20年了 |
| 47 | Before moving to China in 2002, | 2002年迁居中国前. |
| 48 | he has worked on Wall Street and trading and capital markets and corporate finance since 1987. | 他从1987年起在华尔街以及贸易和资本市场和公司金融领域工作. |
| 49 | From 1992 to 2001, he also taught finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business. | 1992年至2001年,他还在哥伦比亚大学商学院研究生院任教金融. |
| 50 | He has published over 200 articles and various leading periodicals along with six books, | 他出版了200多篇文章和各种主要期刊以及六本书, |
| 51 | the most recent of which is the book we're talking about today. | 最近的是今天我们讨论的书 |
| 52 | He received an MBA in finance and an | 他得到了一个MBA 在财务和 |
| 53 | MIN in development economics from Columbia University, and he's also a senior fellow at | MIN在哥伦比亚大学发展经济学专业,他还是一名高级研究员 |
| 54 | Carnegie Tsinghua China Center. | 卡内基清华中国中心. |
| 55 | After the authors speak about their book, my colleague Joyce Wang, | 作者们谈论他们的书之后 我的同事王乔伊丝 |
| 56 | who is deputy director of the Yale Center Beijing, will moderate the Q&A afterward. | 现任耶鲁北京中心副主任,将温和"Q&A"后期. |
| 57 | Throughout the talk, please feel free to type your questions in the chat box and our team will take | 在整个谈话中,请随意在聊天框中输入你的问题,我们团队会接受 |
| 58 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我们一开始 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你就会再问你的问题 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我 | |
| 59 | Without further ado, | 不用再多说了 |
| 60 | let's welcome Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis. | 让我们欢迎马修・克莱因和迈克尔・佩蒂斯。 |
| 61 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 62 | Thank you very much, Carol. | 非常感谢,卡罗尔。 |
| 63 | So Michael said I should go first, so we're just going to give kind of a basic outline of the | 所以迈克尔说,我应该先走, 所以我们只是要给一种基本概要 |
| 64 | narrative. | 说明。 |
| 65 | Carol already kind of laid out the very high level summary, but you know, our general | 卡罗尔已经做了非常高的总结 但是你知道,我们的将军 |
| 66 | point when we were starting to think through this at the end of 2017 was that a lot of people look | 当我们在2017年底开始思考的时候 很多人都觉得 |
| 67 | at economic conflicts as being between countries and that governments are essentially looking out | 国家之间的经济冲突 以及政府基本上 |
| 68 | for the best interests of everyone in a country and that they're competing national interests or | 为了一国每个人的最佳利益,而且他们是相互竞争的国家利益或 |
| 69 | incompatible cultures and that's why we have things like the U.S.-China trade conflict or why | 文化不相容 这就是为什么我们有东西 像美中贸易冲突 |
| 70 | during the euro crisis you had the Germans versus the Greeks. | 在欧元危机期间 你让德国人和希腊人对抗 |
| 71 | Our point of view is that this was | 我们认为,这是 |
| 72 | completely the wrong way of looking at this, that looking at it as a country as being a unified | 完全错误的看待它的方式, 将它视为一个统一的国家 |
| 73 | entity is not really going to give you a good understanding of how the economy or financial | 实体不会真正地给你一个 如何经济或金融 |
| 74 | system works, that it's much more helpful to look at what's going on inside different societies and | 系统起作用了,看看 不同社会内部发生了什么 |
| 75 | how people often across societies at the same level of social strata have much more common | 处于同一社会阶层的全社会的人如何更普遍? |
| 76 | interests than they do necessarily with other people in their own society. | 而不是他们与自己社会中的其他人的利益。 |
| 77 | And so being very | 所以说,非常 |
| 78 | concrete about this, when people look at the U.S.-China conflict, it's not that Chinese workers | 具体来说,当人们看美中冲突时,不是中国工人 |
| 79 | are taking advantage of American workers or anything like that, it's that changes within | 利用美国工人或任何类似的东西, 是改变在内部 |
| 80 | the Chinese political economy of the past 30 years disadvantaged certain groups of people | 三十年来中国的政治经济 使某些群体处于不利地位 |
| 81 | in China, many large portions of the Chinese population at the expense of others and that is | 在中国,中国人口的很大一部分牺牲了其他人,也就是 |
| 82 | a side effect of this that also harmed American workers while enriching other people in the United | 伤害美国工人的副作用 同时也使美国其他工人 |
| 83 | States and in other countries as well. | 国家和其他国家。 |
| 84 | And so these are the kind, looking at this kind of level | 这些就是那种,看这种水平 |
| 85 | analysis is really what we wanted to do and explain in the course of the book and we look at it, | 分析才是我们真正想要做的事情 并在书中解释,我们看看它, |
| 86 | we focus really on, we lay out sort of the theoretical argument for how this works in | 我们把注意力真正放在, 我们提出了一些理论 论证如何运作 |
| 87 | general, we do some broader historical things going back a couple hundred years, but then we | 将军,我们做一些更广泛的历史 事情可以追溯到几百年,但之后我们 |
| 88 | focus in detail on Germany and then Europe as a whole, China and the United States because these | 具体侧重于德国,然后是整个欧洲,中国和美国,因为这些 |
| 89 | are sort of the most representative, they're the largest economies in the world today and also the | 他们是最有代表性的, 他们是最大的经济体 在当今世界上, |
| 90 | most representative of what's going on, understand what's going on in the world today. | 最能代表事情的发展, 了解今天的世界。 |
| 91 | And the point | 重点 |
| 92 | that we make is not actually a new one, one of the points we go very on, we make very on is that | 我们做的其实不是一件新事情, 我们继续讨论的要点之一, 我们做了很多 |
| 93 | this actually, this argument was made over 100 years ago is that when you have too much of a | 这其实是100多年前提出的一个论点 即当你有太多 |
| 94 | share of income in society going to people at the very, very top of the income distribution, | 在收入分配中处于首位的人在社会中的收入份额, |
| 95 | people who don't spend that money on goods and services because they literally can't, | 那些不花那些钱 用于商品和服务的人 因为他们实际上不能, |
| 96 | they have already bought, they already are able to buy everything they could possibly want and | 他们已经买了, 他们已经可以买 所有他们可能想要的, |
| 97 | then there's leftover that they just try to save, that ends up creating all sorts of distortions | 然后还有剩下的,他们只是试图保存, 最终造成各种扭曲 |
| 98 | in the world that tends to lead to, at the time, over 100 years ago, the argument was it led to | 在100多年前的世界上,人们往往认为 |
| 99 | imperialism and the development of colonies to essentially forcibly receive the excess production | 帝国主义和殖民地的发展 根本上是强迫接受多余的生产 |
| 100 | and then in the more modern period, it doesn't lead to that necessarily, but it does lead to | 然后在更现代的时期, 它不一定导致这一点, 但确实导致 |
| 101 | very large trade imbalances, very large debt bubbles, and then all the tensions and social | 巨大的贸易不平衡,巨大的债务泡沫, 然后所有的紧张和社会 |
| 102 | political polarization that comes from that. | 由此而产生的政治两极分化。 |
| 103 | And that's really the point of what we were trying | 这才是我们努力的目的 |
| 104 | to explain in the book and as you mentioned, we wrote this, we put the finishing touches on | 在书中解释 正如你提到的 我们写了这个 我们把最后的触摸 |
| 105 | the manuscript, I think in the beginning of January 2020, obviously a lot of things have | 我认为,在2020年1月初,手稿显然有很多东西 |
| 106 | happened since then, but as sort of a model of understanding how the different pieces of the | 从那时起就发生了, 但作为一种模型 来理解如何不同部分 |
| 107 | global economy fit together, it did end up providing some insight into why certain economic | 全球经济融为一体,但最终确实提供了一些深刻的见解,说明为什么某些经济、经济、社会、政治、经济、政治、经济、政治、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经济、经 |
| 108 | outcomes since COVID began are the way they are. | COVID开始以来的结果就是如此。 |
| 109 | Why, for example, was it that China's trade | 例如,为什么中国的贸易 |
| 110 | surplus blew out the way it did when previously it looked like it had been shrinking? | 盈余会像以前那样 消失得像现在这样吗? |
| 111 | When the U.S. | 当美国. |
| 112 | trade deficit went the opposite direction in response to COVID, there were very different | 贸易逆差与COVID相反, |
| 113 | responses that the governments there had that those reflects with the underlying political | 有关政府的反应表明,这些反应与政治、政治、经济、社会、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、政治、政治、经济、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、政治、 |
| 114 | economy that fit with the model that we have in the book and that's really what the story we tell | 经济,符合 我们的模型 在书中,这是真正的故事 |
| 115 | and how it applies across countries and across time. | 以及它如何在各国和各时间之间适用。 |
| 116 | So hopefully that gives you a good | 所以,希望这给你一个好 |
| 117 | layout. | 设置。 |
| 118 | I don't know if Michael wants to jump in and add more specifics here and how much we want | 我不知道迈克尔是否想 跳进来 并在这里添加更多的细节 我们想要多少 |
| 119 | to focus on Q&A, but that's basically sort of the outline of the main argument and how we think | 重点在QQA上, 但基本上,这是主要论点的提纲 和我们的想法 |
| 120 | about these questions. | 关于这些问题。 |
| 121 | Let me extend one of the things that Matt discussed and that's this issue | 让我说说Matt讨论过的问题之一 这就是问题所在 |
| 122 | of savings. | 储蓄。 |
| 123 | I think there were two points in our book that surprised quite a lot of people. | 我认为书中有两点令很多人感到惊讶。 |
| 124 | One of the points is that savings is really not a cultural trait. | 其中一个要点是,储蓄实际上不是一个文化特征。 |
| 125 | We look at high savings countries | 我们看高储蓄国家 |
| 126 | like Germany or China or Japan or South Korea and we say well there's something in the air, | 比如德国、中国、日本、韩国 我们说空气里有东西 |
| 127 | something in the water that makes them save a lot and then we look at low savings countries like | 在水中的东西 让他们节省了很多 然后我们看 低储蓄国家喜欢 |
| 128 | the U.S. or England and we say well again there's some cultural reason why these people don't like | 美国或英国,我们再说一遍, 有一些文化上的原因 这些人不喜欢 |
| 129 | to save and what we show is that that's pretty much nonsense. | 我们所展示的就是,这简直是胡说八道。 |
| 130 | Matt mentioned that rich people | 马特提到有钱人 |
| 131 | don't consume their income and when you think about the distribution of income in a country | 不要消耗他们的收入 当你想到一个国家的收入分配时 |
| 132 | there are basically, you can think about four sectors, you can think about rich people, | 基本上,你可以思考四个部门, 你可以思考富人, |
| 133 | ordinary people, businesses and governments and out of all of those groups only ordinary people | 普通人、企业和政府,以及所有这些群体中只有普通人 |
| 134 | consume most of their income. | 消费大部分收入。 |
| 135 | The other groups consume zero or a very low share of their income | 其他群体消费其收入的零或极低份额 |
| 136 | so when you look at high savings countries the first thing you notice is distortions | 所以,当你看高储蓄国家 你发现的第一件事是扭曲 |
| 137 | in the way income is distributed. | 收入的分配方式。 |
| 138 | Less of the money goes to ordinary people and more of it | 少一点钱给普通人,多一点钱 |
| 139 | goes either to the rich or to businesses or to governments and as a result the savings rate | 要么向富人,要么向企业,或向政府,因此,储蓄率 |
| 140 | automatically goes up not because people become culturally thrifty or anything like that it's just | 自动上升不是因为人们在文化上变得节俭 或者任何类似的东西 |
| 141 | a shift of income. | 收入变动。 |
| 142 | If you want to increase the savings rate in your country it's quite easy | 如果你想提高你的储蓄率 很容易 |
| 143 | take money away from workers and give it to somebody else. | 把工人的钱拿走,交给别人 |
| 144 | The second point that I think | 我想第二点 |
| 145 | really surprised a lot of people and you see that still in the debate a real misunderstanding | 很多人都很惊讶,但你却看到,在辩论中, 仍然存在着真正的误解 |
| 146 | about the sources of the American imbalances is our argument that Americans don't control | 关于美国不平衡的根源 我们的论点是 美国人不能控制 |
| 147 | their savings rates because the U.S. has completely opened capital markets. | 他们的储蓄率是因为美国已经完全开放了资本市场. |
| 148 | Money traditionally has come into the U.S. | 钱传统上都流入美国. |
| 149 | There was a period of time from say World War I until | 从第一次世界大战到 |
| 150 | the 1960s where the U.S. was a net exporter of capital but from most of its history it's been a | 1960年代美国是资本净输出国 但从大部分历史来看 |
| 151 | importer and often in ways that are beyond its control with completely open capital account | 进口商往往以完全开放的资本账户无法控制的方式进口 |
| 152 | if foreigners want to put money in the U.S. they can do so without any restrictions | 如果外国人想在美国放钱 他们可以不受限制 |
| 153 | and that's very important because one of the things that we point out is that net inflows | 这是非常重要的,因为我们指出的一件事 就是净流入 |
| 154 | in any country this is not just the U.S. cause an increase in the gap between investment up here | 在任何国家 这不仅仅是美国造成的 投资差距增加 |
| 155 | savings down here and so when money comes into the country either it forces investment up | 这里的储蓄,所以当钱来到这个国家 要么它迫使投资上升 |
| 156 | which was the story in the 19th century or it forces savings down which has been pretty much | 这是19世纪的故事 或者它迫使储蓄下降 这几乎是 |
| 157 | the story since the 1970s and I think that's a really important point because when people say | 1970年代以来的故事 我认为这很重要 因为当人们说 |
| 158 | the U.S. runs a current account deficit because it saves too little and if only we could get | 美国经常账户出现赤字,因为它节省的太少了,如果只有我们能 |
| 159 | Americans to save more the current account deficit would disappear we argue no that's | 美国人为了节省更多的经常账户赤字 就会消失 我们不同意 |
| 160 | backwards Americans save too little because it runs a current account deficit and it runs | 美国人储蓄太少 因为它有经常账户赤字 它运行 |
| 161 | the current account deficit because it runs a capital account surplus because foreigners when | 经常账户赤字,因为它有资本账户盈余,因为外国人 |
| 162 | they have excess savings automatically put it in the in the U.S. financial markets which are the | 他们有多余的储蓄 自动把它放到美国金融市场 |
| 163 | deepest the best governed the most flexible etc etc so I think that shocked a lot of people when | 最深层的统治者 最灵活等 所以我认为这震惊了很多人 |
| 164 | we argued that we can't control our savings rate if we don't control our capital account | 我们辩称,如果我们不控制资本账户,我们就无法控制储蓄率 |
| 165 | and I think that's something that right now the congress is discussing I've been told and I know | 我觉得这是现在国会正在讨论的事情 我被告知,我知道 |
| 166 | Mike Stumo sent an email to you Matt about a new bill they're hoping to submit which tries precisely | 迈克·斯图莫给你发了一封邮件 马特 是关于他们希望提交的新法案 |
| 167 | to address that problem but anyway let me stop there and open it up to questions thank you so | 来解决这个问题,但无论如何,让我停下来 打开它的问题,谢谢你 |
| 168 | for the introduction for your book actually we collect some questions during the registration | 在你的书的介绍 我们实际上收集一些问题 在注册期间 |
| 169 | so maybe I can start to ask a few questions to warm up this session and then and if the | 因此,也许我可以开始问几个问题 热身本次会议,然后,如果 |
| 170 | participants have any questions you can either type your question in the chat room chat room | 参赛者有任何问题,您可以在聊天室聊天室输入您的问题 |
| 171 | and or maybe you can just raise your hands I will unmute you to ask your question directly | 或者你可以举起手来 我会劝你直接问问题 |
| 172 | um actually there's a lot of different kind of question I just grouped some of the questions | 嗯,实际上有很多不同的问题 我刚刚分组了一些问题 |
| 173 | maybe I can ask both of you um the first question maybe started and the people asked why you | 也许我可以问你们俩 嗯 第一个问题也许开始 人们问为什么你 |
| 174 | choose this perspective there's many aspect to the impact of the trade war why you choose this | 选择这个视角 贸易战的影响有很多方面 为什么你选择这个 |
| 175 | perspective and what kind of class world do you think a trade war is is against the up class or | 和什么样的阶级世界 你认为贸易战争 是反对上层阶级或 |
| 176 | the whole society do you want to address that matter shall we just take turns sure um yes I | 整个社会都想谈这个吗? |
| 177 | mean I think the reason we we pick this perspective is because it's it's something that I think is | 我的意思是,我认为我们选择这个观点 是因为它是我想的东西 |
| 178 | most useful for understanding just all of the different dynamics at play and it's also something | 最有助于理解所有不同的动态 游戏中,它也是一种东西 |
| 179 | that I think it's complex enough that it really does require a book to really explain all the | 我认为它已经足够复杂了 这确实需要一本书来真正解释 |
| 180 | and I mean I know you know I've been reading Michael's work for for years and it took me a | 我的意思是,我知道你知道 我读迈克尔的作品 多年来,它花了我一个 |
| 181 | while for me to wrap my head around you know this way of thinking about things it's it's it makes a | 而当我把头包在周围时 你知道这种思考方式 |
| 182 | lot of sense once you get your head around it but it does take a while I think to sort of digest | 一旦你的头绕过它, 有很多意义,但是它确实需要一段时间 我想排序消化 |
| 183 | and internalize it and so you know having a book length treatment that's you know actually lays | 并把它内部化,所以你知道 拥有一个书长度治疗 你知道实际上铺 |
| 184 | out the argument I think was was we felt was very important and because we were we really were not | 我认为我们觉得很重要 因为我们真的不是 |
| 185 | seeing these kinds of points being made in the public discussion at the time and even now I mean | 在当时的公众讨论中看到这些观点 甚至现在 |
| 186 | there are people who will who will say this but it's still not necessarily the thing that everyone | 有些人会说这个 但不一定是每个人 |
| 187 | has accepted as being the right way of looking at it in terms of what the the class war is | 被接受为从阶级战争的角度看待它的正确方法 |
| 188 | I guess one way of looking at this I think is very helpful and ties on what Michael was saying is | 我想看这个的方法之一 我认为非常有帮助 与迈克尔所说的话有关联 |
| 189 | that because you have a situation where a lot of people globally are being given less income than | 因为你现在的处境是,全球很多人的收入比 |
| 190 | they are affected than the value of what it is they're producing that ends up creating a sort | 他们受到的影响 超过他们生产的东西的价值 最终创造了一种 |
| 191 | of perpetual imbalance between the total amount of goods and services that are available to be | 现有货物和服务总额之间的长期不平衡 |
| 192 | produced and then how much actual buying of those goods and services is occurring and that creates | 生产,然后实际购买多少这些货物和服务,从而产生 |
| 193 | a problem because if you're an individual business it means that you're you're having you're basically | 一个问题,因为如果你是一个个体企业 这意味着你得到了你基本上 |
| 194 | are having to fight for market share with not necessarily a lot of growth in terms of the | 需要为市场份额而斗争,而市场份额的增长不一定很大。 |
| 195 | market and that leads to that's sort of why you have companies and countries you know trying to | 市场,这导致 那种原因 你的公司和国家 你知道试图 |
| 196 | say like oh we're gonna use tariffs to protect our businesses or what have you but it's also a | 说"哦,我们要用关税来保护我们的企业 或者你有什么,但它也是一个 |
| 197 | problem because it means that globally it gives people the sense that prosperity for you know one | 问题在于它给人们一种感觉 即你所知道的繁荣 |
| 198 | set of people is coming at the expense of other people it's it makes the world more zero sum than | 一群人来牺牲别人... ...这让世界比... |
| 199 | it actually is and that is I think you know I mean the subtitle of the book was how rising inequality | 其实,这就是,我想你知道我的意思 书的副标题是 如何增加不平等 |
| 200 | distorts the global economy and threatens international peace and you know we were not | 扭曲全球经济,威胁国际和平,你知道我们不是 |
| 201 | predicting that you know we'd immediately have some world war anything like that but but it is | 预言我们马上要开世界大战了 |
| 202 | I think reasonable to say that you have this persistent period of weak economic growth and | 我认为,合理的是,你有一个持续的时期 经济增长疲软, |
| 203 | lots of tensions between peoples in different countries who think that they're losing out | 不同国家的人民之间 有许多紧张关系 他们认为他们正在输掉 |
| 204 | because of people in other countries rightly or wrongly mostly wrongly then that undermines the | 因为其他国家的人是对的还是错的 大多是错的 那样会破坏到 |
| 205 | global order it's the same thing that Keynes was worried about when he wrote the general theory in | 当凯恩斯把一般理论写成 |
| 206 | 1936 and so that's the framing that we were thinking of and why it was important you know | 1936年,这就是我们思考的框架 以及为什么这很重要,你知道 |
| 207 | we wrote this book in in mostly in 2018 2019 and that was something that was very much in our minds | 这本书是在2018年写的 这在我们的脑海中 |
| 208 | and you know at the time a lot of people were focused on the US-China dynamic we also focused | 你知道,当时很多人 专注于美中动态 |
| 209 | on internal Europe because it wasn't the kind of thing where people were worried about a shooting | 在欧洲内部,因为它不是那种 人们担心枪击的事情 |
| 210 | war in the same way or anything like that but there was sort of a real concern about the breakdown | 战争以同样的方式或任何类似的方式, 但有某种真正的担心 崩溃 |
| 211 | you know the European project and that was you know I mean that has not come to pass in fact now | 你知道欧洲项目,你知道的 我的意思是,现在还没有实现 |
| 212 | we're seeing kind of the opposite to things going the opposite direction but it was something you | 我们正看到一些相反的东西 走向相反的方向,但这是你的东西 |
| 213 | know these are the kinds of things that we were worried about in terms of undermining political | 我们担心的是 破坏政治 |
| 214 | stability even internally in the United States it was these were kind of big issues that were | 即使在美国国内 也是个大问题 |
| 215 | coming up and so that's what we that's what motivated us to write the book the way we did. | 所以这就是我们激励我们 写书的方式。 |
| 216 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 217 | So Professor Paddy do you want to end anything or? | 帕迪教授 你想结束什么吗? |
| 218 | If there are a lot of questions maybe we should go through them otherwise you know | 如果有很多问题的话 或许我们该看看 否则你知道的 |
| 219 | I can spend two hours on just one question. | 我可以花两个小时 只有一个问题。 |
| 220 | Okay okay that's all there is. | 好吧,好吧,这是所有的。 |
| 221 | Yeah yeah you just | 对,你只是 |
| 222 | mentioned when you write this book you saw this the issues in the US society so this question also | 当你写这本书的时候,你看到了美国社会的问题 所以这个问题也是 |
| 223 | asked will the majority of the US society realize this fact? | 美国社会大多数人会意识到这个事实吗? |
| 224 | Is there a way that the | 是否有一种方式 |
| 225 | trade war could effectively mitigate class conflict in the US? | 贸易战争可以有效缓解美国的阶级冲突? |
| 226 | Well I think you know I'm happy to say | 我想你知道我很高兴说 |
| 227 | that there's a growing awareness of the arguments that Matt and I are making. | 我和马特的争论越来越清楚 |
| 228 | Ten years ago I think | 十年前,我觉得 |
| 229 | people would have just thought they were ridiculous and I think there's an increasing awareness that | 人们会以为他们很可笑 我认为人们越来越意识到 |
| 230 | there is a real fundamental problem the way the global trade and capital flow regime work | 全球贸易和资本流动制度的运作方式存在着真正的根本问题。 |
| 231 | and when you consider we've been having trade conflicts basically since the world opened up | 当你认为我们从世界开放开始 就发生了贸易冲突 |
| 232 | in the 1970s we went to floating rate currencies and the removal of all capital controls in the | 20世纪70年代,我们开始采用浮动汇率货币 并取消了所有资本控制 |
| 233 | United States by 1983 all capital controls have been removed and ever since then we've seen these | 到1983年,美国所有资本管制都被取消 从那时起,我们已经看到了这些 |
| 234 | huge imbalances and enormous attempts to address these imbalances including the really misguided | 巨大的不平衡,以及解决这些不平衡的巨大努力,包括真正误导的 |
| 235 | tariffs which in our book we explained couldn't possibly work because they're solving the wrong | 我们所解释的关税是行不通的 因为他们解决了错误 |
| 236 | problem and the way I think about the wrong problem is and again Matt mentioned Keynes | 问题和我想错了问题的方式 是和马特再次提到凯恩斯 |
| 237 | and Keynes spoke about this very specifically in the in sort of the Bretton Woods negotiations | 凯恩斯在布雷顿森林谈判 中非常具体地谈到这个问题 |
| 238 | he argued look if you have big imbalances that means some countries have surpluses and some | 他辩称,如果你有严重的不平衡, 这意味着一些国家有盈余和一些 |
| 239 | have deficits there's two ways you can resolve those imbalances you can force the deficit | 有赤字 有两种方法可以解决那些不平衡 你能够强迫赤字 |
| 240 | countries to resolve them by contracting demand and he said that's a terrible solution because | 他说,这是一个可怕的解决方案,因为 |
| 241 | what it means is that global demand the only way to solve imbalances is to reduce global demand | 这意味着,全球需求是解决不平衡问题的唯一办法,就是减少全球需求。 |
| 242 | which means of course slowing down growth raising unemployment and all those other things and he | 这当然意味着减缓增长 增加失业和所有其他东西,他 |
| 243 | thing to do is to force the surplus countries to resolve them by expanding domestic demand | 要做的就是通过扩大国内需求来迫使富余国家解决它们 |
| 244 | and we're sort of taking off on that point one of the points that we make is that if you look at | 而我们有点起飞 在这一点上,我们提出的一个要点是,如果你看 |
| 245 | the countries that run persistent surpluses you know there's a lot of cliches about these countries | 那些有持续盈余的国家 你知道这些国家有很多陈词滥调 |
| 246 | one cliche which I hope you know I hope we've undermined is that these countries are culturally | 希望你们知道,我希望我们破坏的 一种陈词滥调是 这些国家是文化上的 |
| 247 | attuned towards thrift no that's not true at all the second cliche is that these countries are | 与节俭不相符合的第二句陈词滥调是这些国家 |
| 248 | really good at manufacturing that's why they run surpluses that's not true at all the reward for | 真正擅长制造 这就是为什么他们有盈余 这根本不是奖励 |
| 249 | being good at manufacturing is that you get to import more and more stuff for less and less of | 擅长制造就是 你越来越少进口东西 |
| 250 | what you produce the reward is improving terms of trade the reward of being good at manufacturing | 你创造的回报是改善贸易条件 提高制造业的回报 |
| 251 | is not a surplus so why do countries have surpluses well if you look around it's very | 不是盈余,所以,为什么国家有盈余,如果你看看周围,它是非常 |
| 252 | clear when you see the data I think that's why our argument had such a big impact even though | 当你看到数据时,我认为这是为什么 我们的论点有这么大的影响,尽管 |
| 253 | almost everybody failed to understand it in the beginning just because the data the data are so | 几乎每个人都没有 在一开始理解它 只是因为数据是如此 |
| 254 | clear if you look at Germany if you look at China if you look at Japan if you look at any of the | 如果看德国,看中国,看日本,看日本 |
| 255 | less relative to their productivity than they do for their trading partners so some people say what | 比起对贸易伙伴的生产力来说 更低 所以有些人会说什么 |
| 256 | are you talking about Germans have high wages yes Germans have high wages but they have much | 你是说德国人工资很高吗? |
| 257 | higher productivity so German productivity is about 15 to 20 percent higher than British | 所以德国的生产率比英国高15%到20% |
| 258 | productivity but wages are roughly the same and that's what we mean we mean that in order to be | 生产力,但工资大致相同 这就是我们的意思,为了成为 |
| 259 | competitive in trade everybody knows the same trick you must lower your wages either directly | 在贸易中竞争,每个人都知道 同样的技巧,你必须降低你的工资 要么直接 |
| 260 | the way perhaps the Germans did in 2003 2004 or indirectly by weakening your currency by | 也许德国人在2003年2004年所做的 或间接通过货币贬值 |
| 261 | environmental degradation which is a way of lowering wages by undermining the social | 环境恶化是降低工资的一种方式,因为它会破坏社会、经济、社会和文化权利。 |
| 262 | safety network which is another way of lowering wages but if you do that you do two things first | 安全网是降低工资的另一种方式 但是如果你这样做,你首先做两件事 |
| 263 | of all you reduce global demand so you're doing that is bad for the world economy but you increase | 在你减少全球需求的过程中 你这样做对世界经济不利 但你却增加了 |
| 264 | your share of global demand so you actually benefit so the point we make is that we're locked in a | 你在全球需求中的份额 所以你实际上受益了 所以我们想说的是 我们被锁在一个 |
| 265 | world not in which you know evil business owners are conspiring to lower wages we're locked in a | 你知道邪恶的企业主想降低我们的工资 |
| 266 | world in which the only way you can gain international competitiveness is by directly or | 在这种世界中,你获得国际竞争力的唯一途径是直接或 |
| 267 | indirectly lowering wages and whoever does it the most wins and this is a Keynesian nightmare | 间接降低工资,谁做最赢,这是凯恩斯的噩梦 |
| 268 | because we've locked ourselves into a regime in which countries individually benefit by | 因为我们把自己锁在了一种政权中,在这个政权中,各国个人从中得益。 |
| 269 | hurting the global economy and so what we're arguing is that we need to we need to get out | 因此我们争论的是 我们需要离开 |
| 270 | of that regime and that may mean a contraction in international trade it will certainly mean | 可能意味着国际贸易的萎缩, |
| 271 | a contraction in global capital flows but the consequence of not doing it we already know what | 全球资本流动萎缩,但是不这样做的后果,我们已经知道 |
| 272 | that is we've been we've seen this for 50 years the as the world grows not very quickly it's growing | 我们50年来一直看到这个... 世界增长不快... |
| 273 | slowly but the income of the bottom half isn't moving at all if you go to all of the major | 慢慢的,但下半身的收入 根本没有移动 如果你去所有的主要 |
| 274 | economies the the advanced economies in the U.S. for example the bottom half make as much money | 例如,美国先进经济体的下半身挣的钱同样多。 |
| 275 | today as they did in the 1980s even though the U.S. economy is much bigger and and in order to | 今天,正如他们在1980年代所做的那样,尽管美国的经济要大得多,而且为了 |
| 276 | generate growth because consumption isn't generating growth consumption based on income then the only | 创造增长,因为消费不产生增长 消费基于收入,然后是唯一 |
| 277 | way to generate growth is through consumption based on rising household debt so we argue we're | 创造增长的方法是靠不断增长的家庭债务来进行消费 所以我们认为我们 |
| 278 | locked in a world that explains much of what we've been seeing in the last four or five decades | 被锁在一个解释我们过去四五十年所看到的一切的世界里 |
| 279 | growth has slowed the growth in wages of the bottom half has slowed even more and household | 增长减缓了下半身工资的增长,家庭也更加放缓。 |
| 280 | debt has exploded and this isn't a coincidence this is the un-Keynesian world we've locked | 债台高筑,这不是巧合 这是我们锁住的不Keynesian世界 |
| 281 | ourselves in. | 自己来 |
| 282 | Thank you so much so this one question from her question is you mentioned | 非常感谢,所以这个问题 从她的问题是你提到的 |
| 283 | the trade war is class war what kind of a hierarchy is the main reason to cause the | 贸易战争是阶级战争 什么样的等级是造成战争的主要原因 |
| 284 | trade war and why? | 贸易战争和为什么? |
| 285 | I think this gets back to somewhat what Michael was saying which is the | 我想这又回到了迈克尔所说的 |
| 286 | sense that if you have a shrinking global pie and the only way to grow over an individual business | 感觉如果你有 缩小的全球馅饼 和唯一的方式 成长为个体企业 |
| 287 | is to essentially increase your market share in a shrinking pie that is going to one of the things | 基本上增加你的市场份额 在一个萎缩的馅饼 将去的东西之一 |
| 288 | that you might try to do as a business to maintain you know to do that is to sort of shut out | 你可能试图做一个生意来维持 你知道这样做是有点关闭 |
| 289 | competitors from abroad and appeal to nationalists you know rhetoric in order to do that and so that's | 国外的竞争者 和吸引民族主义者 你懂的言辞 为了做到这一点,所以 |
| 290 | sort of I think part of the linkage there that you know the root issue is the internal class dynamics | 某种程度上,我认为联系的一部分 那里,你知道 根本问题是内部阶级动态 |
| 291 | that are occurring in a bunch of societies often independent there is certainly some sort of | 在一群社会中发生的 常常是独立的 肯定有某种 |
| 292 | global connection which you know as Michael was saying if every business in order to survive has | 作为迈克尔,你所知道的全球联系 是说,如果每个企业 为了生存 |
| 293 | to you know there's this downward pressure on wages but at the same time they're also sort of | 让你知道工资有下降的压力 但与此同时,他们也有点 |
| 294 | specific idiosyncratic stories for each society for why these things happen the way they do that's | 对于每个社会来说 具体的特异性故事 为什么这些事情发生的方式 |
| 295 | why we spend so much time talking about what exactly happened in China over the past 30 years | 为什么我们花这么多时间谈论 过去30年在中国究竟发生了什么 |
| 296 | what exactly happened in Germany and Europe over the past you know 30 plus years and those forces | 过去在德国和欧洲究竟发生了什么 你知道30年之后 以及那些力量 |
| 297 | end up pushing you know transferring income either through lower wages to you know higher profits or | 要么通过低工资转移收入 要么通过高利润 |
| 298 | shift in the wage distribution or things like switching income from from workers to say local | 工资分配的转变或诸如从工人收入中转换到当地收入之类的 |
| 299 | governments things like that and all those things what they end up doing is they because they're | 政府的事情 和所有这些事情 他们最后做的是,他们是 |
| 300 | reducing total demand for all the things that businesses produce but not actually affecting | 减少对企业生产但并不实际影响的一切产品的总需求 |
| 301 | how much businesses produce that that creates sort of problem so you know they have to the | 有多少企业生产 制造了某种问题,所以你知道他们必须 |
| 302 | businesses need to find they have a hard time selling the stuff that they're still able to | 企业需要找到 他们很难 出售的东西 他们仍然可以 |
| 303 | produce and so then you know someone has to be you know either they just produce less and that | 生产,然后你知道 某人必须 你知道,要么他们只是生产更少 |
| 304 | creates you know sort of global depression or at least you know much weaker economy than otherwise | 创造出你知道的全球萧条 或至少你知道 经济比其他更弱 |
| 305 | would be or someone else has to be borrowing a lot to make up the difference and so for example | 要么是别人借了很多钱来弥补差额 比如说 |
| 306 | before 2008 you saw that with you know U.S. households you saw it in Europe with in the | 在2008年之前,你看到,随着你知道 美国家庭,你看到它在欧洲与 |
| 307 | crisis countries governments and households there borrowed a ton then that broke down and we had a | 危机国家的政府和住户借了一吨 然后就崩溃了 我们有一个 |
| 308 | you know massive financial crisis and very weak growth globally and and and then you know we sort | 你知道巨大的金融危机 和非常薄弱的全球增长 然后你知道我们排序 |
| 309 | of were stuck for 10 years or so after that basically until you know 2020 and this sort of | 在那之后十年左右一直被卡住 直到你意识到2020年 |
| 310 | growth you know bad you know sustained unsustainable and yet long you know | 你知道增长不好 你知道持续不可持续 却很长 |
| 311 | period of sort of weak economy under you know utilizing excess capacity not excess | 在你知道利用过剩能力而不是过剩的情况下,经济疲软的时期 |
| 312 | capacity in the sense that you know all material needs have been fully met but excess capacity in | 也就是说,你知道所有物质需求都已经完全满足,但能力过剩了。 |
| 313 | the sense that there wasn't enough money available to people who wanted to buy things to actually buy | 感觉没有足够钱给那些想买东西的人 |
| 314 | the things that all the world's businesses were capable of producing and that just created this | 世界上所有企业都有能力生产的东西 以及刚刚创造出来的 |
| 315 | imbalance so in that sense the you know the class war which is sort of the fundamental cause of all | 从这个意义上讲,你所知道的阶级战争 可以说是一切的根本原因 |
| 316 | that was the driver of then all the trade conflicts and economic conflicts that show up between | 导致贸易冲突与经济冲突 |
| 317 | countries and you know you have Germans and Dutch going after Greeks and Spaniards or you know | 你知道德国人和荷兰人 去追希腊人和西班牙人 或者你知道 |
| 318 | Americans and Chinese and that those things are really sort of the secondary consequence of the | 美国人和中国人 以及那些东西 实际上是次要后果 |
| 319 | more fun the internal drivers you know in each of these countries and which we you know explain | 更有趣的是,在每一个这些国家你都知道的 内部驱动器,我们都知道解释 |
| 320 | mechanics of the book okay thank you this also participant asking about the trade wars | 书的力学,谢谢 这位参与者也问起贸易战争 |
| 321 | toll related with the geopolitical issues this question about how do you interpret the Russian | 与地缘政治问题有关的损失 这个问题你如何解释俄罗斯 |
| 322 | Ukraine conflict in the context of the trade or class world what kind of economic implications | 乌克兰在贸易或阶级世界中发生冲突 |
| 323 | does a conflict have on the rest of the world besides the more intermediate oil price and | 除了更中间的石油价格外,冲突是否还发生在世界其他地区? |
| 324 | calm commodity price cycles well i don't think i think you have to be careful | 我认为你不必小心 |
| 325 | this this argument isn't an explanation for every conflict except in a general sense | 这个论点不是每个冲突的解释 除了一般意义上 |
| 326 | if you agree with our basic argument then you will you will agree that there is a reason why | 如果你同意我们的基本论点 那你会同意 |
| 327 | we've seen stagnation in wages in most of the developed countries and and in developing countries | 在大多数发达国家和发展中国家 工资都停滞不前 |
| 328 | like Russia there's been a stagnation in wages there are huge imbalances in trade and these | 像俄罗斯一样 工资停滞 贸易严重失衡 |
| 329 | imbalances have been very difficult for some countries to swallow for other countries | 对一些国家来说,不平衡对于其他国家来说是非常困难的。 |
| 330 | they've been a way of resolving domestic problems that they don't want to resolve | 解决了他们不想解决的家庭问题 |
| 331 | and one of the consequences and this is not the first time it's happened it's happened in previous | 后果之一 这不是第一次发生 |
| 332 | globalization cycles one of the consequences as these imbalances grow is that you get more and | 随着这些不平衡现象的加剧,全球化循环的后果之一是,你得到的更多, |
| 333 | anger at the system you get more and more nationalism more and more populism so to that | 对制度感到愤怒 你越来越喜欢民族主义 越来越喜欢民粹主义 |
| 334 | extent if you if you want to fit the Russian Ukrainian thing within this context perhaps you | 如果你想把俄罗斯的乌克兰语融入到这个背景中 |
| 335 | could argue that that you know this the the populism that we're seeing in both countries | 可以说你知道我们两国的民粹主义 |
| 336 | and elsewhere is a reflection of these deep imbalances but i don't want to overly simplify | 但我不想太简单 |
| 337 | the fact is the there are there are many reasons for the Russian Ukrainian conflict | 事实上,俄罗斯的乌克兰冲突有很多原因 |
| 338 | and and these date back all the way back to you know the 1980s if you like or the 1990s | 这些可以追溯到80年代 或者90年代 |
| 339 | there's lots of reasons for but our basic argument is really an economic argument which might then | 理由很多 但我们的基本论点是 经济论点,然后可能 |
| 340 | lead to political problems and it's a very serious economic problem and that is that we we have a | 导致政治问题 这是一个非常严重的经济问题 那就是我们有一个 |
| 341 | trading regime in which businesses and countries are not rewarded for improving productivity | 企业和国家不因提高生产力而得到奖励的贸易制度 |
| 342 | they are rewarded for reducing wages either way makes you more competitive | 他们因为减薪而得到奖励 无论哪种方式都会让你更有竞争力 |
| 343 | and we would like to be in a world where you become more competitive by raising workers | 我们想在一个世界上 通过提高工人的竞争力 |
| 344 | productivity but we're not in that world we're in the world where you become more competitive by | 生产力,但我们不是在那个世界上 我们是在这个世界,你变得更有竞争力 |
| 345 | lowering workers wages and we say that that's just unsustainable even if you like that system | 降低工人的工资,我们说,那只是不可持续的,即使你喜欢这个系统 |
| 346 | it's unsustainable we have to come up with a different system okay thank you this david also | 我们不得不想出一个不同的系统 这是不可持续的,我们得想出一个不同的系统 |
| 347 | ask questions all right it's a bit of a broad one i apologize for him but with the global | 我为他道歉,但对于全球 |
| 348 | trade war sanction also be affecting the current younger global generation affecting their | 贸易战争制裁也影响到目前全球年轻一代,影响到他们 |
| 349 | difficulty to rise to the same financial success that previous generations found easy | 难以取得与前几代人所发现的相同的财政成功 |
| 350 | again for example the recent and previous stock market crashes and the current property rent rise | 又如最近和以前的股票市场崩溃以及目前的房产租金上涨 |
| 351 | with wage stagnation i think it's definitely plausible i think that you know there is | 工资停滞,我觉得这绝对是可信的 我认为你知道有 |
| 352 | definitely an element of luck of when you you are born and when you start earning in terms of what | 绝对是你出生和开始赚钱的幸运因素 |
| 353 | asset prices are like and how that affects your you know life trajectory if you were in a situation | 资产价格是怎么样的, 和如何影响你 你了解的生活轨迹 如果你处于一种情况 |
| 354 | where you get to buy financial assets starting in the early 1980s when you know in the u.s your p | 从20世纪80年代早期开始,你就能买到金融资产 当你在U.s.s.你的p. |
| 355 | ratios are under 10 and in bond yields were over 10 i mean that's just a very different kind of | 比率在10岁以下,债券收益率在10岁以上, 我的意思是,这只是一种非常不同的类型 |
| 356 | environment than when p ratios are 30 and bond yields are two in terms of your expected returns | 环境比 p 比率为 30 时, 债券收益率 以预期收益为 2 时 |
| 357 | so in that sense yes although i don't know how much of that's you know trade wars class wars | 所以,从这个意义上说,是的,虽然我不知道 你有多少人知道贸易战争阶级战争 |
| 358 | dynamic versus you know there just tends to be sort of long cycles of things being | 充满活力的对决 你知道 事情的循环很长 |
| 359 | you know that's just how that's just how life is and it's not really fair i mean people born | 你知道,这就是什么 只是如何是生活 它是真正的公平,我的意思是人出生 |
| 360 | in terms of when the great depression was booked for after that affects their | 以及大萧条何时被定下来 影响他们 |
| 361 | life trajectory a lot tremendously as well but i think there's definitely the case a certain | 生活轨迹也非常丰富 但我认为肯定有 |
| 362 | when you are born and what the circumstances are can definitely have long-term effects on your | 当你出生, 是什么情况肯定会对你的长效 |
| 363 | you know what your well-being is like you know i also like to add it you know if you don't mind | 你知道你的幸福是什么 就像你知道的 我还想补充一下 如果你不介意的话 |
| 364 | on the on the russia ukraine issue we certainly didn't write anything to explain that but i do | 俄克拉何马州乌克赖恩问题 我们当然没有写什么来解释 |
| 365 | think it's interesting if you look at russia's internal dynamics this was one thing we did talk | 你看看鲁西亚的内在动态 这很有趣 我们谈过一件事 |
| 366 | about i think relates to this was this was a society that is very unequal was very unequal and | 我觉得这和这件事有关 是因为这个社会很不平等 |
| 367 | in addition also you know had a severe financial crisis in the late 1990s along with a bunch of | 此外,你也知道,在1990年代后期, 发生了严重的金融危机, 与一群 |
| 368 | countries in east asia and the asian financial crisis and responded in a similar way which was | 东部阿西亚国家和阿西亚金融危机,并以类似方式作出反应。 |
| 369 | initially in the 1990s the government had been you know supporting borrowing to invest and | 早在1990年代 政府就一直支持借贷投资 |
| 370 | modernize the economy after that having a very different financial posture to prevent that | 之后的经济现代化 有着非常不同的 财政姿态来阻止 |
| 371 | you know focusing on very tight government budgets and accumulating foreign reserves | 你知道专注于非常紧张的政府预算和积累外汇储备 |
| 372 | and under investing in you know physical infrastructure to the same extent that it was | 在投资中,你对有形基础设施的了解程度 与它的程度相同 |
| 373 | before which you know seems to be you know in retrospect that you know that that may not have | 在你知道之前,你似乎在回顾过去的时候知道,你可能不知道, |
| 374 | been the most useful strategy for them but that you know you can see that playing out in terms | 对他们来说是最有用的策略,但你知道,你可以看到,从角度来说, |
| 375 | of their balance of payments dynamics and how that you know related to the rest of the world and that | 他们的国际收支动态 以及你知道的与世界其他地方的关系 |
| 376 | sort of you know the fact that they you know so much of the income and wealth that was generated | 某种程度上,你知道一个事实,即他们 你知道这么多的收入和财富 产生 |
| 377 | from russian natural resources ended up not being reinvested into you know domestic technological | 从俄罗斯自然资源 最终没有被再投资 在你知道的国内技术 |
| 378 | productive capacity is something that you know they're probably regretting right now | 生产能力是你知道的 他们可能现在后悔的东西 |
| 379 | okay next question so some people ask actually several questions ask how the ordinary people | 好吧,接下来的问题,所以有些人 问实际上几个问题 问如何是普通人 |
| 380 | prepared for the consequences impact brought by the trade war it depends what you mean by the | 为贸易战带来的后果做好准备 这取决于你的意思 |
| 381 | trade war we would argue that a correct resolution of these trade imbalances would hurt certain | 我们主张,正确解决这些贸易不平衡问题将损害某些 |
| 382 | groups and benefit certain groups it wouldn't hurt countries and benefit countries but it would | 它不会伤害国家,也会给国家带来好处,但它会 |
| 383 | workers it would benefit farmers would benefit producers and it would hurt probably financiers | 这会给农民带来好处 也会伤害金融家 |
| 384 | and those with movable capital so we think actually a rebalancing of global trade would be very good | 以及那些拥有可移动资本的人 所以我们认为 重新平衡全球贸易 将是非常好的 |
| 385 | for the groups that have really paid for these big imbalances you know one thing that may be a good | 对于真正为这些大不平衡付出了代价的团体,你知道一件事,也许是件好事。 |
| 386 | illustration of the way we think about this we didn't really talk very much about this in our | 说明我们思考这个问题的方式 我们并没有经常谈论这个问题 |
| 387 | book but since then it's become a really big topic and that's you know the whole issue of | 书,但从那时起,它就成了一个大话题, 这就是你知道的整个问题 |
| 388 | countries running into debt problems and sovereign defaults so you know yesterday | 陷入债务问题和主权违约的国家 让你知道昨天 |
| 389 | sri lanka announced that it was going to have real trouble paying its debt we know that several | Sri Lanka宣布它很难偿还债务 我们知道有好几个 |
| 390 | countries in africa in latin america and and and the one that's occupying the most space right now | 非洲国家在拉廷亚美利加 和一个占据最多空间的国家 |
| 391 | argentina and many people see these conflicts | Argentina和许多人看到这些冲突 |
| 392 | over whether or not they're going to pay and how much they're going to pay as a conflict between | 关于他们是否支付 和他们要支付多少 作为冲突 |
| 393 | countries again so if you look at the the argument in argentina it's sort of on one side are the | 国家再次,所以如果你看 在argentina的争论 它有点在一边是 |
| 394 | american and european creditors or on the other side is the argentine government | 美国和欧洲的债权人 或者在另一边是极权政府 |
| 395 | and either argentina will win or the americans and europeans will win and what we would argue | 或美国和欧洲人获胜 或我们争辩什么 |
| 396 | using this trade framework is that's completely the wrong way to look at it | 使用这个贸易框架是完全错误的 |
| 397 | because argentina generates export earnings right they export stuff and they make money | 因为Argentina能创造出口收入 他们能出口东西,赚钱 |
| 398 | and we need to focus on how those earnings are recycled it's it's a an accounting identity that | 我们需要专注于这些收入是如何回收的 它是一个会计身份 |
| 399 | every dollar that enters argentina and this is true of every country every dollar that enters | 每一个进入阿根蒂纳的美元 每一个进入阿根蒂纳的美元 每一个国家都是这样 |
| 400 | through the capital of the current account must leave through the capital of current account | 必须通过经常账户资本离开 |
| 401 | so argentina is not getting money through the capital account no one will lend it money | 所以Argentina不会通过资本账户得到钱 没有人会借钱的 |
| 402 | but it is earning money through exports so what does it do with those dollars well it can do two | 但是它通过出口赚钱 所以它能用这些钱做什么 |
| 403 | things broadly speaking it can import stuff or it can repay the creditors and so what you know what | 一般来说,它可以导入东西 或者它可以偿还 债权人,所以你知道什么 |
| 404 | our framework would argue is that rather than look at the sovereign debt negotiation and i'm | 我们的框架认为,与其看主权债务谈判,我 |
| 405 | writing a paper now that with the title sovereign debt restructurings are trade issues our framework | 现在写一份文件 主权债务重组是贸易问题 我们的框架 |
| 406 | would say that if argentina takes that dollar and uses it to repay debt then they're increasing | 如果Argentina拿了那美元 用它来还债 他们就会增加 |
| 407 | the savings of the world because the debt will go to an investor typically a wealthy investor | 世界的储蓄,因为债务将流向投资者 典型的富裕投资者 |
| 408 | and and savings will go up and the world doesn't need savings it's got too much | 和储蓄会上升 世界不需要储蓄 它有太多 |
| 409 | if the argentines use that to import something then they would have to buy you know something | 如果Agentines用它来进口一些东西,那么他们就必须买一些东西给你知道 |
| 410 | from an american farmer or from an american manufacturer or european for that matter | 由美国农民或美国制造商或欧洲人负责 |
| 411 | and they would add to global demand so our framework says that a debt restructuring is | 并且它们会增加全球需求 所以我们的框架说债务重组是 |
| 412 | not a conflict between the the debtor nation and the creditors it's a conflict between | 而不是债务国和债权人之间的冲突 而是冲突 |
| 413 | wealthy investors in both the debtor nation and the creditor nation so both rich argentines | 债务国和债权国都有富有的投资者 所以都是富翁 |
| 414 | and americans and europeans benefit from debt repayment and the ones who lose out are not just | 美国人和欧洲人从还债中受益 而那些输掉债务的人不仅仅是 |
| 415 | argentine farmers and workers but american farmers and workers and european farmers and workers | 紧张的农民和工人,但美国农民和工人以及欧洲农民和工人 |
| 416 | because they're forced into a world in which argentine imports which is their demand is | 因为他们被迫进入一个 |
| 417 | converted into argentine debt payments which doesn't add to global demand so what we what we | 转换成紧急债务支付 不增加全球需求 所以,我们是什么 |
| 418 | argue is that you really need to think of all of these imbalances as really income imbalances not | 认为你真的需要把所有这些不平衡看作是真正的收入不平衡,不是 |
| 419 | national imbalances and you can use this framework to to understand a lot of sometimes fairly | 国家不平衡,你可以利用这个框架来理解很多有时是公平的 |
| 420 | complicated things thank you there's several questions about the china u.s trade war and | 复杂的事情谢谢你 关于中国贸易战争还有几个问题 |
| 421 | ask about how it's developed and how will you view the china u.s relation in the next five | 询问如何开发,如何看待未来五大瓷器的关系 |
| 422 | 10 years or i know what china would to do to penetrate this power do you want me to deal | 10年或者我知道瓷器会怎么做 才能穿透这种力量 你想让我处理 |
| 423 | with with china matt and then you can answer the same question from the european context because | 与瓷质的马特,然后你可以回答同样的问题 从欧洲语背景,因为 |
| 424 | it's a very similar question sure should we do that sure first of all i'm quite pessimistic i | 这是一个非常相似的问题 我们一定要这样做 首先确定 我相当悲观 我 |
| 425 | think things are going to get worse before they get better and i've been saying this since 2010 | 认为事情会越来越糟糕 之前,他们得到更好的, 我一直说这一点,从2010年 |
| 426 | so maybe i'm i'm locked into the cycle but i don't i don't see things getting better immediately | 所以也许我被锁在了循环圈里 但我没看到事情立刻好转 |
| 427 | the problem is that the u.s attempt to address these trade imbalances was based on really an | 问题在于,美国试图解决这些贸易不平衡问题,其基础其实是: |
| 428 | obsolete theory of trade why does china run a surplus well by definition chinese savings are | 为什么中国的盈余井是中国的储蓄 |
| 429 | higher than chinese investment now that's sort of weird because china has the highest investment | 现在比中国投资还高 这有点奇怪 因为中国投资最高 |
| 430 | rate of any country in history in fact it's a huge problem china way over invest debt is | 历史上任何国家的利率 事实上,这是一个巨大的问题 瓷器的方式比投资债务 |
| 431 | soaring and everyone knows that that they've got to do something about it it's got an incredibly | 飞翔,每个人都知道 他们必须做一些事情 它有一个令人难以置信的 |
| 432 | high investment rate normally countries with high investment rates run deficits trade deficits | 投资率高的国家通常出现赤字贸易赤字 |
| 433 | because the deficit or the current account deficit is the gap between savings and investment in | 因为赤字或经常账户赤字是储蓄与投资之间的差额。 |
| 434 | in spite of having an incredibly high investment rate you have an even higher savings rate again | 尽管投资率很高,但储蓄率却更高 |
| 435 | the highest in history we've never seen a savings rate this high so why do the chinese save so much | 历史上最高的储蓄率 我们从未见过这么高的储蓄率 所以为什么中国人储蓄这么多 |
| 436 | well it's not chinese people who save that much chinese people save more or less in line with | 那么,不是中国人 谁拯救那么多 中国人多少 储蓄多少与 |
| 437 | other developing countries at similar income levels and similar social safety levels so they | 其他收入水平和社会保障水平相近的发展中国家 |
| 438 | save like prudent normal people save but the reason the savings rate in china is so high | 但中国储蓄率如此之高 |
| 439 | which is the same thing as saying the reason the consumption rate in china is so high as so low | 这跟说瓷器的消耗率如此之低 是一样的 |
| 440 | is because household income in china is the lowest as a share of gdp of any country in history | 因为瓷器的家庭收入是历史上任何国家GDp中最低的 |
| 441 | right there are a couple of small temporary exceptions arab oil sheikdoms when oil prices | 在石油价格方面,有一些小的暂时例外 |
| 442 | are very high will sometimes be for six months or a year worse than china but basically for 20 | 有时比瓷器还要高六个月或一年 但基本上只有20年 |
| 443 | years china has had the lowest household income share by far in history in other words when an | 多年来,中国在家庭收入中所占份额在历史上是最低的,换句话说,当 |
| 444 | american an average american produces on average a hundred dollars worth of goods his pay is roughly | 美国人平均生产 价值100美元的货物 他的工资大约是 |
| 445 | in europe his pay will be between 70 to 80 dollars in developing countries that have very | 他的薪水将在70到80美元之间, 在发展中国家, |
| 446 | low relative pay they might get 65 dollars in china the average worker gets paid 55 dollars | 相对工资低,他们可能会得到65元的瓷片 工人平均得到55元的薪水 |
| 447 | for producing a hundred dollars worth of goods so as a result it's not surprising that he or she | 生产价值100美元的货物 所以他/她并不奇怪 |
| 448 | cannot consume a very large share of of what is produced they consume a very low share and | 无法消耗生产物中的非常大一部分,它们消耗的份额很低, |
| 449 | remember savings the economic definition of savings is just whatever you produce minus | 记住储蓄 储蓄的经济定义 仅仅是你生产的任何减值 |
| 450 | whatever you consume that's what you save so the chinese cannot cannot consume most of what they | 无论你消费什么,这就是你节省的 所以中国人不能消费他们的大部分 |
| 451 | get because they get paid such a low share of what they produce so how do you solve the problem | 因为他们得到的工资 如此低的比例 他们生产,所以你如何解决这个问题 |
| 452 | tariffs don't work because tariffs don't change the savings imbalance in china the only way to | 关税不起作用,因为关税不能改变中国的储蓄不平衡 |
| 453 | solve the savings imbalance in china is to significantly increase the household share of | 解决中国的储蓄不平衡问题 是要大大增加家庭在 |
| 454 | gdp well that's easy to say but as we point out in the book you can't increase somebody's share | 好吧,这很容易说 但我们在书中指出 你不能增加别人的份额 |
| 455 | without reducing somebody else's share and this has always been the problem i won't go through | 却又不减少别人的股份 这一直是我不愿经历的问题 |
| 456 | the details but the share that has to be reduced is the share primarily of local governments you | 细节,但必须减少的份额主要是地方政府的份额。 |
| 457 | need a massive transfer of income from local governments to ordinary households but how do | 需要地方政府向普通家庭大量转移收入,但如何转移收入? |
| 458 | you do that without significant political disruption significant institutional reform | 你这样做没有重大的政治干扰 重大的体制改革 |
| 459 | well we've known you know albert hershman wrote about this in the 1960s and 70s we know that it's | 我们知道Albert Sheshman在1960年代和70年代 都写过这个 |
| 460 | incredibly difficult to do that so the only way to resolve china's domestic imbalances | 很难做到 解决中国国内失衡问题的唯一办法 |
| 461 | is domestically it's by shifting income from the government to the household sector the only thing | 国内只有靠把收入从政府转移到家庭部门 |
| 462 | the u.s can do if it wants to stop absorbing this huge demand efficiency tariffs won't work | 如果它想停止吸收 如此巨大的需求 效率关税是行不通的 |
| 463 | because as long as china has this imbalance it has to run a surplus and as long as it runs the | 因为只要瓷器有这种不平衡,它就必须有盈余,只要它运行 |
| 464 | export savings and as long as those savings go directly or indirectly to the u.s the u.s must | 出口储蓄 只要这些储蓄直接或间接流向美国 |
| 465 | run the corresponding deficit it might run it with china it might not one of the things we point out | 运行相应的赤字 它可能运行它与瓷 它可能不是我们指出的事情之一 |
| 466 | in our book is never look at bilateral trade imbalances they tell you nothing so we argued | 我们的书里从不看双边贸易不平衡 他们什么都没告诉你 所以我们争论 |
| 467 | from the very beginning trump's tariffs couldn't possibly work they might reduce the american | 从一开始 关税就比不上美国 |
| 468 | deficit with china but if they did they would automatically increase the american deficit with | 有中国的赤字,但如果有的话,就会自动增加美国的赤字。 |
| 469 | the rest of the world and as you can see from the data that's exactly what what what happened so | 正如你们从数据中看到的 事情就是这样的 |
| 470 | the the only way the u.s can protect itself is by by refusing to accept the excess savings | 只有拒绝接受多余的储蓄 才能保护自己 |
| 471 | of countries that have these domestic demand imbalances and that really means interfering | 国内需求不平衡、真正意味着干预 |
| 472 | with with with the capital account and that's something i think eventually we're going to do | 与资本帐户, 我认为这是事情 最终我们会做 |
| 473 | but if we were to to to do it tomorrow it would create a crisis why because if china cannot export | 但是如果我们明天要这样做 那会造成危机 为什么因为如果中国不能出口 |
| 474 | its excess savings it cannot have excess savings and that means by definition the gap between | 它的超额储蓄不能有超额储蓄,这从定义上就意味着: |
| 475 | investment and and savings collapses to zero now we saw what that does in 2009 china's current | 在2009年的中国, |
| 476 | account surplus went from 10 to 3 percent in two years because of the global crisis | 由于全球危机,账户盈余在两年内从10%增加到3% |
| 477 | and that created a real crisis within china they had to close the gap i won't go through all the | 这在瓷器内部造成了真正的危机 他们不得不缩小缺口 我不会穿过所有 |
| 478 | details because it's quite long and we explained it in the book but the way you reduce savings is | 细节,因为它是相当长, 我们在书中解释了它 但你减少储蓄的方式是 |
| 479 | by increasing debt or increasing unemployment which they didn't want to do and the way you | 通过增加债务或增加失业 他们不想做的 和你的方式 |
| 480 | increase investment is by spending tons on investment which they didn't want to do they | 增加投资是花在投资上的吨数 他们不想这样做 |
| 481 | were already over investing so when china's current account gap closed very rapidly | 当中国的经常账户缺口迅速缩小时 |
| 482 | many people argued that that was the beginning 2009 2010 that was the serious beginning | 许多人认为,2009-2010年是严肃的开端。 |
| 483 | of of of the problems with china's development model which we're still struggling to deal with | 我们仍在努力解决的瓷器开发模式的问题 |
| 484 | today so that shows you how difficult it is to resolve these imbalances and the old-fashioned | 今天,这说明 解决这些不平衡和旧式 |
| 485 | way of imposing tariffs they do nothing because the imbalances are savings imbalances maybe you | 征收关税的方式,他们没有做什么 因为不平衡是储蓄的不平衡,也许你 |
| 486 | can tell the german and europe story yeah i mean just getting to the original you know framing of | 可以讲德国和欧洲的故事 是的 我的意思是刚刚得到的原件 你知道陷害 |
| 487 | the question it's not so much that you know the trade war is going to start or anything i mean | 问题不是太多 你知道贸易战争即将开始 |
| 488 | you know if we're looking at it not so much on tariffs but just the impact of trade and how | 你知道,如果我们看的不是关税 而是贸易的影响和如何 |
| 489 | trade has transmitted economic problems i think it's more accurate to say that there's been | 贸易传递了经济问题 我认为更准确的说法是 |
| 490 | a trade conflict for a long period of time and you know whether we've you know perceived it or | 长期的贸易冲突 你知道我们是否知道 |
| 491 | not is a different story but it's it's been there that's really been sort of the key issue in looking | 并不是一个不同的故事 但是它已经存在了 它确实有 那种关键问题 在寻找 |
| 492 | at sort of the european context when you had there you know we write about this in detail in the books | 有点欧洲背景 当你在那里 你知道我们在书中详细写了这一点 |
| 493 | this is going to be the sort of the shorter version but you know basically until about 2008 you had | 这将是一种 短版本,但你知道基本上 直到2008年左右 |
| 494 | within europe as a whole production and consumption and investment were all roughly | 整个欧洲范围内的生产和消费以及投资大致 |
| 495 | imbalanced and so europe in terms of how you know if you draw a line around europe | 失衡和如此的欧洲 在如何知道 如果你画一条线环绕欧洲 |
| 496 | how that interacted with the rest of the world it wasn't really contributing either way to global | 这与世界其他地方的相互作用 并没有真正为全球做出贡献 |
| 497 | imbalances but inside europe there were huge imbalances and basically what you had was that | 失衡,但在欧洲内部, 存在着巨大的失衡, 基本上,你拥有的是 |
| 498 | germany and the netherlands were essentially playing the role of china within europe where | 德国和黑土 基本上扮演着欧洲瓷器的作用 |
| 499 | you just had vast amounts of extra production relative to domestic spending and that was mainly | 你只是拥有大量的额外生产 相对于国内开支,这主要是 |
| 500 | because just domestic spending was very weak that in germany which is much bigger than netherlands | 因为国内开支非常微弱 在德国,它比净土大得多 |
| 501 | they just was not doing well during this period and but you had a lot of german companies where | 这段时间他们表现不好 但你有很多德国公司 |
| 502 | they mostly sold abroad so it didn't matter that you know the workers in germany weren't getting | 他们大多被卖到国外 所以你知道德国的工人不会 |
| 503 | raises and not spending money didn't matter that they didn't have customers of other german | 筹钱和不花钱都无所谓 他们没有其他德国人的客户 |
| 504 | businesses because german business investment tanked after 2000 didn't matter that you know | 因为德国企业投资在2000年之后 被挤压并不重要 |
| 505 | german government was raising taxes and cutting welfare benefits and making it harder for people | 德国政府正在提高税收,削减福利福利,使人民更加困难。 |
| 506 | to spend money because their customers weren't in germany and so the flip side of this was that you | 因为他们的客户不在德国 所以反之在于你 |
| 507 | had people in spain and ireland and in greece and portugal and italy and they were in the baltics | 有的人在斯宾林、伊里兰、 葡萄酒、葡萄酒和意大利语中 并且他们还在巴利语中 |
| 508 | and they were spending much more than they were earning and in some of those countries it seemed | 他们花的钱比赚的钱多很多 在其中一些国家 |
| 509 | like that was fine because these were rapidly growing economies they were converging uh you | 这样很好 因为经济迅速发展 他们正在凝聚... |
| 510 | know we don't think about it now but you know spain and greece and and they were essentially | 我们现在不考虑它,但你知道 斯宾和格里斯,他们本质上是 |
| 511 | the original sort of emerging market success stories that they weren't you know now we think | 最初的新兴市场成功的故事, 他们不知道,现在我们认为 |
| 512 | them as being advanced well maybe not greece but we think of them as sort of being advanced | 但是我们认为他们是被推进的 |
| 513 | economies but you know they weren't you know i mean back in the 70s these were still you know | 经济,但你知道,他们是不是 你知道,我的意思是回到70年代 这些仍然你知道 |
| 514 | military dictatorships they were you know barely in sort of what we think of as you know the western | 军政专政,你几乎不知道 我们的想法,你也知道西部 |
| 515 | world and yet you know they were converging and in the 1990s in particular they're growing very | 但是你知道它们正在汇合 特别是在1990年代 它们正在成长 |
| 516 | rapidly so it made sense at one level yeah of course you have a you know rapid growth a lot | 很快,所以它有道理 在一个层次上 是的,当然,你知道 快速增长很多 |
| 517 | of borrowing and investment and some of this stuff was valuable you know spain michael probably | 借钱投资,有些东西很值钱 你可能知道斯宾迈克尔 |
| 518 | actually tell you this better than i because you know he's you know family connections there but i | 其实告诉你这个比我好,因为你知道他 你知道家庭联系在那里,但我 |
| 519 | mean they they uh you know built out a tremendous you know high speed rail network uh in spain it's | 意思是他们 呃 你知道建造了一个巨大的 你知道高速铁路网 呃... |
| 520 | very very good and greece you know they built out all sorts of really good infrastructure | 非常好,葛蕾丝,你知道 他们建造了各种非常好的基础设施 |
| 521 | um during this period you know the athens subway system is is is phenomenal but you know there was | 嗯,在这段时期,你知道 雅典地铁系统 是惊人的,但你知道有 |
| 522 | also you know there was excess that there's only at any given point in time whatever society it is | 而且你知道,有多余的, 只有在任何特定的时间点 它是什么社会 |
| 523 | there's only so many you know worthwhile projects that are you know it makes sense to do and if | 只有这么多你知道有价值的项目 你知道这样做是合理的 如果 |
| 524 | there's more financing available than you know the right number of projects and then you're going | 有了更多的资金 比你知道 正确的项目数量 然后,你要去 |
| 525 | to do more projects that make sense and you end up with you get all the good stuff done but then | 做更多的有道理的项目 你最后会得到所有好东西 但后来 |
| 526 | you get also these other things i mean i think the one of the probably most aptly named one was in | 你也会得到这些其他的东西, 我的意思是,我认为其中之一 可能是最合适的 名字在 |
| 527 | spain the um the don quixote airport international airport is built in lamancha which is not near | 东奎索特机场国际机场建在拉曼恰,不靠近 |
| 528 | anything uh it's about you know two hours drive from madrid i think it's not near anything else | 嗯,这是关于你知道两个小时的车程 从马德里德,我想它不是接近任何东西。 |
| 529 | they built it you know billions of euros that they they had no flights coming in i think they | 他们建造了它 你知道数十亿欧元 他们没有航班进入,我想他们 |
| 530 | ended up having to you know repurpose it for cargo or i don't know they they sold it and ended | 最终不得不你知道 重新用于货物 或者我不知道 他们卖了它,结束了 |
| 531 | up selling it to someone else for like one euro and then assumed debt because it was just total | 把它卖给别人 像一欧元,然后承担债务 因为它只是总数 |
| 532 | loss that's what happened there you know so the financial crisis hit so all this borrowing and | 损失就是这样发生的,你知道的,所以金融危机 打击了所有这些借款, |
| 533 | spending everything's going well at the time until about 2008 then you had the financial crisis | 在2008年左右之前,你已经度过了金融危机 |
| 534 | and then the question is how you're going to how you're going to adjust so in china we had one | 问题是你如何调整瓷器 |
| 535 | method of adjustment which is the the trade and current account surplus compressed pretty | 调整方法,即交易和经常账户盈余的压缩 |
| 536 | and domestic investment rose that is the opposite of what happened in in europe what happened in | 国内投资的上升与欧洲发生的相反 |
| 537 | europe was that all the countries that had been um you know spending more than they were earning | 欧洲是所有曾经的 国家,嗯,你知道 花费比他们赚更多 |
| 538 | that were essentially offsetting the imbalances within germany from the perspective of the rest | 从其他角度而言,这基本上抵消了德国内部的不平衡。 |
| 539 | of the world they were forced to cut their spending dramatically because all that all | 他们被迫大幅削减开支 因为所有这一切 |
| 540 | their ability to borrow and spend you know turned off and that was a choice that was made essentially | 他们借钱和花钱的能力,你知道 关闭了,这是一个选择 基本上做了 |
| 541 | by elites across europe both in those countries and in in germany and elsewhere it was a choice | 在那些国家、在德国和其他地方, 精英分子跨越欧洲,这是个选择。 |
| 542 | that you know just as we were talking about with argentina and that i mean they could have made a | 你知道,正如我们在谈论 与argentina, 我的意思是,他们可以 |
| 543 | different choice the the prioritizing creditors and debt repayment over uh you know workers and | 不同的选择,优先 债权人和还债 比呃,你知道工人和 |
| 544 | producers and consumers was something that that was a they didn't have to make that choice they | 生产商和消费者是 他们不必做出这样的选择 |
| 545 | did make that choice it was a choice that was bad for people across europe in fact across the world | 确实做出了这样的选择,这是一个对欧洲各地的人来说 是不好的选择,事实上,全世界。 |
| 546 | as a whole but it was good for certain people within europe which is why they ended up making | 整体而言,但对于欧洲的某些人来说是好事, 这就是为什么他们最终制造 |
| 547 | choice they did that ended up then leading to essentially the whole continent of europe becoming | 最终导致整个欧洲大陆 |
| 548 | a mega germany in terms of its impact both in terms of its domestic dynamics and terms of the | 从其国内动态和条件的影响来看,德国是一个特大德国。 |
| 549 | impact on the rest of the world and europe ended up having uh basically getting to the eve of the | 对世界其他地方和欧洲的影响 最终,呃 基本上到达前夕 |
| 550 | pandemic anyway the largest trade surplus in absolute terms relative to the rest of the world | 无论如何,按绝对值计算,这种流行病是世界其他地方的最大贸易顺差。 |
| 551 | of any society ever actually bigger relative to the rest of the world than china did on the eve | 任何社会实际上都比世界其他地方大 比中国在前夕做的 |
| 552 | of the global financial crisis when at that point it was you know the biggest of any uh trade surplus | 在全球金融危机中,当时你知道最大的贸易盈余 |
| 553 | relative to the world as a whole of any of any country ever and uh you know it was purely driven | 相对于整个世界,任何一个国家 永远,你知道它纯粹是驱动的 |
| 554 | not by the fact that you know there was some great export boom out of europe there wasn't some you | 并不是因为你知道欧洲有 巨大的出口繁荣 没有你 |
| 555 | know miracle of productivity growth it was just the fact that a lot of people were suddenly cut | 知道生产率增长的奇迹 只是很多人突然被砍了 |
| 556 | off from the ability to spend and then they spent less and you basically had massive degradation of | 失去花费的能力,然后他们花费更少 你基本上有大规模退化 |
| 557 | public infrastructure massive degradation of of living standards um increase in poverty it was | 公共基础设施生活水平大规模下降 贫困加剧 |
| 558 | bad for them fundamentally but it's also bad for everyone else because everyone who used to make | 根本上对他们不利,但是对其他人也不利,因为以前每个人都做 |
| 559 | money selling to europeans they their market share you know the the size of that market just | 钱卖给欧洲人 他们的市场份额 你知道市场的规模 |
| 560 | shrank and so this is an example they lose lose outcome for for the vast majority of the world | 收缩,所以这个例子 他们失去了结果 对于绝大多数世界 |
| 561 | uh and you know that was you know leading to among other things trade not just conflicts | 嗯,你知道,这是你知道 导致其他的事情 交易 不只是冲突 |
| 562 | internally within europe and um a lot of understandably heated rhetorical misplaced | 在欧洲内部 和很多可以理解的热言乱语错位 |
| 563 | but also between europe and others because you know other countries were you know then getting | 也在欧洲人和其他人之间 因为你知道其他国家 你知道,然后得到 |
| 564 | understandably annoyed that they were losing out on their market i mean the u.s european | 可以理解的是,他们在市场上输掉了 我指的是欧洲人 |
| 565 | economic relationship over the past 10 years um or at least leading up into covet was was was not | 经济关系在过去10年中 或至少导致 贪婪是不是 |
| 566 | good for this reason in the sense a lot of the in fact commentary of of you know american economic | 从这个意义上讲,你对美国经济的 了解很多 |
| 567 | officials and dealing with europeans it was similar to what they were you know what they've | 官员们和与欧洲人打交道, 和他们之间的相似之处, 你知道他们有什么 |
| 568 | been saying to you know their chinese counterparts of why are you not spending more money at home why | 一直对你说,你知道他们的中国同行 为何你不花更多的钱在家里 |
| 569 | you know why are you making it so that you know we're the ones carrying the you know the global | 你知道你为什么做它 这样你知道,我们是 携带你知道的全球 |
| 570 | growth they sent that you know that we were and that was undermining you know those kinds of | 他们发送的增长 你知道,我们是 和它正在破坏 你知道这些类型 |
| 571 | relations as well and that that that's you know unlike in in china where i think you know we saw | 关系也一样,这就是你知道的 不像在瓷器里,我想你知道我们看到了 |
| 572 | how the reaction of covet i think kind of was consistent with the you know sort of pre-pandemic | 科维特的反应如何,我认为 有点符合你知道的 某种前扩张 |
| 573 | you know political economy model i think actually in europe i'm more optimistic than michael is | 你知道政治经济模式 我认为在欧元 我比迈克尔更乐观 |
| 574 | about china i wouldn't necessarily have been but you know seeing what we've seen over the past | 关于中国,我不一定是 但你知道我们过去见过什么 |
| 575 | years with the way that the europeans responded to covet with an unprecedented level of solidarity | 多年来,欧洲人民以前所未有的团结精神回应渴望 |
| 576 | in terms of how the different governments reacted together you know irrespective of | 在不同的政府如何共同反应方面,你们知道,无论 |
| 577 | which countries were getting hit hardest by the pandemic and how they're going to spend money | 哪些国家受到这一大流行病的打击最大,它们如何花钱 |
| 578 | and then also quite frankly over the past few weeks in terms of how european governments have | 在过去的几周里,欧洲各国政府如何 |
| 579 | reacted in terms of deciding that they're going to support each other both in terms of things like | 他们的反应是,决定要互相支持 比如说, |
| 580 | managing refugee flow and and national defense and other things and so i'm actually more optimistic | 管理难民潮和国防及其他事务 所以我更乐观 |
| 581 | now than i was a couple of years ago about how europe might evolve on this front internally which | 现在比我几年前 谈论欧洲会如何进化 在这个前沿的内部 |
| 582 | i think will be ultimately good both for them and for the rest of the world but you know we'll see | 我想最终对他们和全世界都有好处 但你知道我们会看到 |
| 583 | how how it all plays out thank you thank you for also your very detailed explanation that's a | 感谢你们 也感谢你们非常详细的解释 |
| 584 | question also from wechat and the question is can you speak to the federal reserves rule in controlling | 也来自我们聊天的问题 问题是 你能否谈谈联邦保留地的管制规则 |
| 585 | the price of money and the distribute effect on the wealth low interest rate over the past decade | 货币价格和对财富分配的影响 |
| 586 | has discouraged domestic saving now high inflation is stripping away the value of the same money and | 现在高通胀使同一笔钱的价值丧失殆尽, |
| 587 | eroding purchasing power of the working people well i think there is a problem with the fed and | 侵蚀了工人的购买力 我认为有问题 与食品和食品 |
| 588 | with central banks generally i think they've been too concerned about financial stability and not | 我一般认为他们太关心金融稳定 而不是 |
| 589 | concerned enough about economic growth but you know i i'll let i'll let matt jump in because he | 我让Matt跳进去 因为他 |
| 590 | focuses on the fed much more than i do but i just want to say one thing the argument that low interest | 但我只想说一点 低利息的论点 |
| 591 | rates have discouraged savings in the u.s i i don't think is correct at all i think it's a very | 利率已经抑制了储蓄 在美国,我并不认为是正确的 我认为这是一个非常 |
| 592 | standard argument but there's no evidence that low interest rates discourage service savings in | 标准论点,但没有证据表明低利率会阻碍服务储蓄。 |
| 593 | for example in the first decade of the century interest rates were severely negative real | 例如,在本世纪头十年,利率为负实际利率。 |
| 594 | interest rates were very negative and the savings rate exploded i think you have to be careful not | 利率非常低 储蓄率爆炸 我想你必须小心别 |
| 595 | to confuse savings with household savings low interest rates might discourage household savings | 将储蓄与家庭储蓄混为一谈 低利率可能阻碍家庭储蓄 |
| 596 | in some cases they encourage household savings it depends on your reason for saving but what's | 在某些情况下,他们鼓励家庭储蓄 取决于你储蓄的理由,但是什么 |
| 597 | important for the savings rate is not whether households save or not what's really important | 对储蓄率很重要的不是家庭储蓄与否 |
| 598 | is the distribution of income within different groups because we know some groups save a lot | 是不同群体内部的收入分配,因为我们知道有些群体节省了很多 |
| 599 | some groups don't and that's what really matters yeah i would say actually that you know if anything | 有些团体没有,那才是真正重要的 是的,我会说,实际上你知道,如果什么 |
| 600 | the causation is is the other way around which is that it's excessive saving that leads to interest | 因果关系是另一条路 就是过度储蓄导致利息 |
| 601 | rates being low and that you know i generally think with some exceptions but in general central | 利率很低,你知道 我一般认为,除了一些例外, 但总的来说,中央 |
| 602 | banks especially central banks like the fed that are pretty explicit about what they're targeting | 银行,特别是像联邦银行那样的中央银行 他们的目标非常明确 |
| 603 | they're really setting you know the sense that they're setting interest rates basically following | 他们真的陷害你,你知道 他们的利率 基本上跟随 |
| 604 | what you know where the sort of the economy is guiding them to be and they're trying to say | 你知道哪一种经济 引导他们去, 他们试图说 |
| 605 | okay we want to have growth be you know more or less stable we want to have inflation be more or | 好吧,我们想有增长 你知道多少稳定 我们希望通货膨胀多或少 |
| 606 | they want to have employment you know as high as it can we think it can be you know what is | 他们想有工作,你知道的 最高,我们可以认为这是你知道什么 |
| 607 | the set of interest rates that's going to lead to that outcome and that whatever that set of it you | 会导致结果的一套利率 以及无论你如何 |
| 608 | know leaving aside whether that's you know the right way to set economic policy in general or | 你是否知道制定经济政策的正确方式? |
| 609 | manage the economy leaving that aside if that's the way you're going to go about it then you know | 管理经济 撇开它 如果你要这样做,你知道 |
| 610 | the interest rate you pick is really a function of all sorts of other things that are outside of | 你所选的利率 实际上是其他各种东西的函数 |
| 611 | control like who you know who has who wants how many people want to borrow how much they want to | 控制就像你知道谁 谁想借多少钱 |
| 612 | borrow why would do they want to borrow how much people are trying to save what's the balance of | 借一下,为什么他们要借多少人 试图拯救什么是平衡的 |
| 613 | those things i think the distribution of income actually has a really big impact on this something | 我觉得收入分配对这件事 影响很大 |
| 614 | i wrote about actually back in august there's a uh some economists um uh tif mian uh ludwig straub | 我写了一篇在古典的书 有个经济学家 呃 tif mian |
| 615 | and amer sufi they wrote a paper and you know following i mean they're very sympathetic to our | 和Amer sufi 他们写了一篇论文 你知道跟着我的意思是 他们非常同情我们 |
| 616 | reading of of you know our book their paper came out actually after our book came out so | 读到你的书 他们的论文是在我们书出来之后 |
| 617 | able to write about it explicitly but they make this point that you can draw a link i think between | 写得很清楚,但是他们提出这一点 你可以画一个联系,我想 |
| 618 | the decline interest rates globally not just in the u.s and the increase in inequality that | 全球利率的下降,不仅仅是美国,以及不平等的加剧。 |
| 619 | that's is really that's that the the increase in inequality led to cause the decline interest | 也就是说不平等的加剧 导致了利息的下降 |
| 620 | rates because essentially the decline interest rates was the sort of necessary offsetting force | 利率,因为利率下降基本上是必要的抵消力 |
| 621 | to you know keep the economy you know prevent sort of permanent depression uh given the fact that you | 要知道,保持经济 你知道防止 某种永久性的抑郁... ... |
| 622 | encourage enough borrowing to offset the fact that you didn't have the income going to people | 鼓励足够的借款来抵消你没有收入的人的事实 |
| 623 | who would otherwise spend it and so i think that's probably the you know the more helpful way of | 否则谁会花掉它 所以我认为你可能知道 |
| 624 | thinking about this thank you may i just add one thing to matt because i think something that i | 想想这个,谢谢... ...我可以在Matt上加一点东西 因为我想的东西,我 |
| 625 | would recommend that all of you think about very seriously i think you know matt and i would both | 我建议你们都认真思考 我想你认识Matt 我都会 |
| 626 | consider ourselves followers of a tradition that includes you know people like martin wolf | 认为自己是传统的追随者 包括你认识的人 像马丁狼 |
| 627 | and what i like about martin is that he's incapable almost of thinking of countries | 我喜欢的玛汀是 他几乎无法思考国家 |
| 628 | he has to think globally and i think we don't do that enough very often you will see something | 他必须从全球角度思考 我认为我们做的还不够多 你会看到一些东西 |
| 629 | happen in the u.s and you will explain it with u.s reasons and this is a big country problem you see | 发生在U.s. 你会用U.s.的原因来解释, 这是一个很大的国家问题,你看到 |
| 630 | 在瓷器中 Brazil in India in Russia 等,嗯,你却没注意到那东西 | |
| 631 | happening in the u.s is also happening in the rest of the world so when people say low u.s | 发生在美国的事件也发生在世界其他地方,所以当人们说低U. |
| 632 | interest rates are caused by xyz in the u.s then you're then you're assuming that it's merely | 利率是由xyz在U.s. 然后你是假设它只是 |
| 633 | coincidence that there are low interest rates in europe and in china and in japan etc etc | 巧合的是,欧洲、中国、日本等地的利率很低。 |
| 634 | and it you know it could be coincidence but it's incredibly unlikely so it's probably better | 你知道这可能是巧合 但这是不可思议的不可能 所以也许更好 |
| 635 | sometimes to look for global explanations for phenomena that seem to be occurring not | 有时寻找全球解释 现象似乎没有发生 |
| 636 | just in one country but across a bunch of countries thank you also there's several | 仅仅在一个国家,但 跨越一堆国家 感谢您,还有几个 |
| 637 | questions about how the how you evade evasion the trade wars will end it he said a trade war | 关于你如何逃避贸易战争的问题 他说贸易战争已经结束 |
| 638 | divided from the theory or comparative is advantage and will affect the optimal | 从理论或比较优势中分离是优势,将影响最佳 |
| 639 | allocation of the resources on global scale if our class chooses to give up the advantage | 如果我们的阶级选择放弃优势,则将在全球范围分配资源 |
| 640 | that may benefit more participant in trade for its own benefit will the world return to trade | 可能让更多的贸易参与者受益, |
| 641 | cooperation after face conflicts well as we said earlier the comparative advantage argument which | 面对冲突后的合作,正如我们早些时候所说,比较优势的论点 |
| 642 | is a very limited argument and one of which conclusions is that in a world of free trade | 这是一个非常有限的论点,其中一项结论是,在一个自由贸易的世界中, |
| 643 | you maximize total production as we've argued that's simply not true in our world of free trade | 正如我们所争论的 在自由贸易的世界里 根本不是真的 |
| 644 | you become internationally competitive not by increasing productivity but by lowering wages | 你变得具有国际竞争力,不是通过提高生产力,而是通过降低工资 |
| 645 | and when you lower wages you reduce demand and ultimately if demand doesn't increase | 当你降低工资时,你就会降低需求 最终如果需求不增加 |
| 646 | production doesn't increase we would argue that that a certainly i would i don't want to put words | 生产量不会增加,我们想说 我当然不想说 |
| 647 | in matt's mouth but i would argue that a reversal we would argue that a reversal we would argue that | 但我会说,一个逆转... ...我们会说,一个逆转... |
| 648 | at least a partial reversal | 至少部分反转 |
| 649 | of the current globalization process | 全球化进程的影响 |
| 650 | with Danny Roderick, one of my favorite economists | 我最喜欢的经济学家之一丹尼·罗德里克 |
| 651 | refers to as hyper globalization | 称为超全球化 |
| 652 | would actually increase global production. | 将实际增加全球产量。 |
| 653 | The problem is that it isn't solved | 问题是没有解决 |
| 654 | because of tariffs or anything like that. | 因为关税什么的。 |
| 655 | We need to be much more intelligent, | 我们需要更聪明一点, |
| 656 | but we have to think about how this game ends. | 但我们得考虑一下这场比赛的结局 |
| 657 | The way the world works right now, | 现在的世界运作方式 |
| 658 | the US because of its open capital markets | 美国的开放资本市场 |
| 659 | is necessarily the consumer of last resort, | 必然是最后手段的消费者, |
| 660 | not because it wants to be, | 不是因为它想成为, |
| 661 | but because as long as it has open capital markets | 因为它有开放的资本市场 |
| 662 | and as long as people prefer | 只要人们喜欢 |
| 663 | to park their excess savings in the US | 将多余的储蓄存放在美国 |
| 664 | and roughly half of all the excess savings | 以及所有超额储蓄的一半 |
| 665 | in the world are parked in the US | 全世界都停在美国 |
| 666 | and much of the rest is parked in England, | 其余大部分都停在英国 |
| 667 | Canada and Australia, | 加拿大和澳大利亚, |
| 668 | all of which have very, very similar financial markets. | 所有这些金融市场都非常非常相似。 |
| 669 | But as long as that happens, | 但只要这样 |
| 670 | then the US is forced to be the absorber | 然后美国被迫成为吸收器 |
| 671 | of deficient demand abroad. | 国外需求不足。 |
| 672 | Now, when the US was 50% of the world, | 当美国占世界50%的时候 |
| 673 | this wouldn't have been a problem. | 这不会是一个问题。 |
| 674 | The US today is still very large. | 今天的美国仍然很大。 |
| 675 | It's about 24% of the world. | 占世界约24%. |
| 676 | But if you believe that the rest of the world | 但如果你相信世界的其余部分 |
| 677 | will grow faster than the US, | 将比美国更快增长, |
| 678 | that means the US has to bear | 这意味着美国必须承受 |
| 679 | a bigger and bigger and bigger burden | 更大的负担 |
| 680 | until eventually we see a collapse. | 直到我们最终看到一个崩溃。 |
| 681 | I think long before that, | 我觉得很早之前 |
| 682 | something will happen. | 会有事发生 |
| 683 | And the way I see it, | 而在我看来, |
| 684 | there are two things that can happen, | 有两件事可以发生, |
| 685 | one good and one bad. | 一个好一个坏。 |
| 686 | The good thing is that we reconvene | 幸好我们重新开会 |
| 687 | a Bretton Woods type of negotiation | a 布雷顿森林类型的谈判。 |
| 688 | in which countries get together | 国家聚集在一起 |
| 689 | and re-plan, redesign the global trade | 重新规划,重新设计全球贸易 |
| 690 | and capital regime along the lines | 和资本制度 |
| 691 | that Keynes said at Bretton Woods. | 凯恩斯在布雷顿森林说的 |
| 692 | We didn't follow Keynes's model, | 我们没有遵循凯恩斯的模型, |
| 693 | unfortunately, in my opinion, | 不幸的是,我认为, |
| 694 | but that's the basic model we follow | 但这就是我们遵循的基本模式 |
| 695 | in which basically imbalances can't exist | 基本上不可能存在不平衡 |
| 696 | because there will be pressure | 因为会有压力 |
| 697 | on surplus countries, | 盈余国, |
| 698 | which is where the imbalances originate, | 是不平衡的根源, |
| 699 | pressure on surplus countries | 对盈余国家的压力 |
| 700 | to resolve their imbalances domestically. | 解决国内的不平衡。 |
| 701 | So that would be the good way. | 这样就更好了 |
| 702 | Then we would have a globalized world | 然后我们就会有一个全球化的世界 |
| 703 | under much better trading rules. | 根据更好的交易规则。 |
| 704 | The more likely way, unfortunately, | 更可能的方式,不幸的是, |
| 705 | is that the U.S. eventually decides, | 美国最终决定 |
| 706 | it refuses to bear the cost | 它拒绝承担成本 |
| 707 | of this deficient global demand | 全球需求不足 |
| 708 | and it unilaterally imposes, | 它单方面规定, |
| 709 | I would argue capital controls, | 我主张资本控制, |
| 710 | some people would argue trade controls, | 有些人会争论贸易控制, |
| 711 | we'll see, but it unilaterally imposes | 我们等着瞧,但单方强制 |
| 712 | these controls on trade | 贸易管制 |
| 713 | where it forces the current account deficit | 造成经常账户赤字的地方 |
| 714 | to drop very, very rapidly. | 迅速下降 |
| 715 | Now, that could be done in a very disruptive way, | 现在,这可以 以非常破坏性的方式, |
| 716 | but if it's done in a smooth way, | 但是如果事情顺利进行 |
| 717 | it would benefit the U.S. | 这将有利于美国。 |
| 718 | But it would be devastating | 但它会是毁灭性的 |
| 719 | for countries that rely on the U.S. market | 依赖美国市场的国家 |
| 720 | because I assume if the U.S. did that, | 因为我猜如果美国这样做, |
| 721 | England and Canada and Australia would do it too. | 英国、加拿大和澳大利亚也会这样做。 |
| 722 | It would be devastating for countries | 这会给各国带来灾难 |
| 723 | that rely on those markets | 依赖这些市场 |
| 724 | to resolve their domestic demand imbalances. | 解决国内需求不平衡问题。 |
| 725 | So Matt mentioned Germany. | 所以马特提到了德国. |
| 726 | Germans simply do not consume, | 德国人根本不消费 |
| 727 | Europeans do not consume | 欧洲人不消费 |
| 728 | what Germany produces. | 德国生产的东西 |
| 729 | They're not paid enough. | 他们的工资不够。 |
| 730 | So if Germany can no longer run a trade surplus, | 所以如果德国不再能维持贸易顺差 |
| 731 | what can it do quickly? | 它能快点做什么? |
| 732 | All it can do is cut production very rapidly, | 它能做的就是非常迅速地削减生产 |
| 733 | which means a surge in unemployment. | 这意味着失业人数激增。 |
| 734 | The same thing with China. | 与中国亦同. |
| 735 | What can it do if the world won't accept its surpluses? | 如果世界不接受它的盈余,它能做什么? |
| 736 | Well, the only thing it can do quickly | 好吧,它能做的只有这么快 |
| 737 | is a surge in unemployment | 失业人数激增 |
| 738 | or it can go crazy and spend money | 或者它会疯狂地花钱 |
| 739 | on building bridges on top of bridges | 在桥顶建桥 |
| 740 | on top of bridges | 在桥顶 |
| 741 | as a way of absorbing that domestic demand. | 作为吸收国内需求的一种方式。 |
| 742 | But Germany doesn't have a debt problem, | 但德国没有债务问题 |
| 743 | but China already does. | 但中国已经做到了。 |
| 744 | That's not a very good solution. | 这不是一个很好的解决办法。 |
| 745 | But to me, it's sort of inevitable. | 但对我来说,这是不可避免的。 |
| 746 | We're moving in that direction. | 我们正朝着那个方向前进 |
| 747 | I would prefer a new Bretton Woods. | 我更喜欢一个新的布雷顿森林。 |
| 748 | I'm enough of a realist to suspect | 我有足够的现实主义者来怀疑 |
| 749 | it's going to be very hard to do that. | 这很难做到 |
| 750 | And so we will probably have unilateral moves | 所以我们可能会采取单方面的行动 |
| 751 | by countries like the US and the UK | 美国和联合王国等国 |
| 752 | in which they force an elimination | 强制消灭 |
| 753 | of trade imbalances. | 贸易不平衡。 |
| 754 | That's a question maybe not very related, | 这个问题也许不太相关 |
| 755 | but I think it's also a very interesting question. | 但我觉得这也是一个非常有趣的问题。 |
| 756 | They ask about the trade wars or class wars. | 他们询问贸易战争或阶级战争. |
| 757 | Could this logic be extended to other kind of war? | 这种逻辑能否扩展到其他类型的战争? |
| 758 | What do you think? | 你觉得呢? |
| 759 | Well, insofar as I think many wars | 嗯,我认为很多战争 |
| 760 | do not generally benefit the most people | 通常不会给大多数人带来好处 |
| 761 | in the countries that are actually fighting each other, | 在实际上相互争斗的国家, |
| 762 | then there's definitely an element there. | 然后肯定有一个元素在那里。 |
| 763 | But yeah, I wouldn't want to over use our model | 但是,是的,我不想过度使用我们的模型 |
| 764 | to areas that we weren't really coming up with originally. | 本来我们并没想好的地方 |
| 765 | I understand. | 我理解,我懂你说什么 |
| 766 | There's another question about the documentary | 还有另一个问题关于纪录片 |
| 767 | American Factory. | 美国工厂. |
| 768 | I'm not sure whether... | 我不确定... ... . . |
| 769 | Have you seen this film, American Factory? | 你看过这部电影吗,美国工厂? |
| 770 | I know of it, but I've not seen it, no. | 我知道,但我没见过,没有。 |
| 771 | Yeah, they ask about, | 是啊,他们问, |
| 772 | do you think this documentary is a good example | 你觉得这部纪录片是一个很好的例子吗? |
| 773 | of class war exceeding cultural conflicts? | 阶级战争超越文化冲突? |
| 774 | It talks about a Chinese manufacturer. | 讲述了一个中国制造商. |
| 775 | They have a factory in the US | 他们在美国有个工厂 |
| 776 | and they hired a lot of American local people to work there. | 他们雇用了很多美国当地人 在那里工作。 |
| 777 | So basically it's talking about... | 所以基本上说... |
| 778 | You know, I think to me the easiest way, | 你知道,我认为最简单的方式, |
| 779 | the shortcut, the cheap shortcut to becoming | 捷径, 廉价捷径成为 |
| 780 | very knowledgeable about economics | 非常了解经济学 |
| 781 | is to read tons of history. | 是读吨历史。 |
| 782 | And those of us who are... | 而我们中那些... |
| 783 | I think I'm referring only to myself here. | 我想我只是指我自己在这里。 |
| 784 | Those of us who are a little older | 我们这些年纪稍大的人 |
| 785 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}会记得日本的电影 | |
| 786 | I mean, it was very, very similar in the 1980s. | 我的意思是,这是非常,非常相似的 在1980年代。 |
| 787 | And these movies were fairly simple. | 这些电影很简单。 |
| 788 | They tried to explain Japanese and US trade imbalances | 他们试图解释日本和美国的贸易不平衡 |
| 789 | and the huge surge in Japan as a result of cultural factors. | 以及由于文化因素导致日本剧增. |
| 790 | And in retrospect, we now know | 回头看,我们现在知道 |
| 791 | that the huge surge in Japan in the 1980s | 1980年代日本剧增 |
| 792 | was nothing to do with cultural factors. | 与文化因素无关。 |
| 793 | It was just a huge, perhaps the worst bubble of all time. | 这只是一个巨大的,也许最糟糕的泡沫 所有的时间。 |
| 794 | And Japan has spent the last 20, 30 years trying to resolve it. | 而日本在过去的20,30年里一直在努力解决这个问题. |
| 795 | So, you know, I think these things are fun. | 所以,你知道,我觉得这些东西很有趣。 |
| 796 | I think they're important because they affect the political debate. | 我认为它们很重要,因为它们影响了政治辩论. |
| 797 | I don't think they're terribly useful. | 我觉得它们没什么用 |
| 798 | I don't want to oversimplify, but I think if you look at... | 我不想太简单,但我想如果你看... |
| 799 | You know, I'm going to sound like a Marxist here, | 你知道,我会听起来像一个马克思主义者在这里, |
| 800 | but if you look at the economic substructure, | 但是,如果你看 经济亚结构, |
| 801 | you get most of the rest of it correct. | 你得到的大部分其余 它是正确的。 |
| 802 | You don't need, you know, you don't need cultural differences | 你不需要,你知道, 你不需要文化差异 |
| 803 | between Americans and Chinese | 美国人和中国人之间 |
| 804 | to explain what's happening in either country. | 来解释这两个国家都发生了什么 |
| 805 | Okay, thank you. | 好的 谢谢 |
| 806 | This participant called Tom Hawk. | 这个参与者叫汤姆·霍克. |
| 807 | Yeah, my question is, it seems the RMB, | 是的,我的问题是, 看起来人民币, |
| 808 | the Chinese yuan is becoming more of a reserve currency. | 中国人民币越来越成为储备货币。 |
| 809 | And it seemed to me also that the income gap in China will remain serious. | 在我看来,中国的收入差距仍然很严重。 |
| 810 | So what's your prediction of the future? | 那你对未来的预测是什么? |
| 811 | Yeah, without any like a new Brentwood accord or new or other. | 是啊,没有像一个新的布伦特伍德协议 或者新的或其他。 |
| 812 | What do you think, Matt? | 怎么样,马特? |
| 813 | You want to address that? | 你想解决吗? |
| 814 | I guess the question is, yeah, I guess the question is how much, | 我想问题是,是的, 我想问题是,多少钱, |
| 815 | you know, yuan actually is becoming reserve currency | 你知道,人民币实际上正在成为储备货币 |
| 816 | to the extent that the other major reserve currencies are. | 以其他主要储备货币为限。 |
| 817 | I mean, I think, you know, the big challenge is, | 我的意思是,我认为, 你知道,最大的挑战是, |
| 818 | are there enough assets available for people outside the country to buy | 是否有足够的资产可供境外人购买 |
| 819 | that can be converted at short notice | 可在短时间内转换 |
| 820 | into goods and services that you really want when you really need them? | 进入你真正需要的商品和服务? |
| 821 | That's really the test. | 这是真正的测试。 |
| 822 | And it's not clear to me that that... | 我不清楚这... |
| 823 | I mean, I think in theory, the euro actually would be more the obvious | 我的意思是,我认为在理论上,欧元 实际上会更明显 |
| 824 | if we're thinking of multiple reserve currencies simultaneously | 如果我们同时考虑多种储备货币 |
| 825 | on par with the dollar, the euro would be the obvious one | 欧元和美元一样是显而易见的 |
| 826 | in terms of it's an economy of a similar size. | 就规模而言,它是一个类似规模的经济。 |
| 827 | You have extensively the kind of legal system and so forth that might be. | 你拥有广泛的法律制度,等等。 |
| 828 | But, you know, it's a very fractured market | 但是,你知道, 这是一个非常破碎的市场 |
| 829 | and European governments have basically said they don't want to borrow | 欧洲各国政府基本上都说不想借钱 |
| 830 | because of the euro crisis. | 因为欧元危机。 |
| 831 | And so that's not an option. | 所以这不是一个选择。 |
| 832 | China is obviously a very large economy. | 中国显然是一个非常庞大的经济. |
| 833 | It's a diversified economy that produces a lot of things. | 它是一个多元化的经济,生产很多东西. |
| 834 | So in theory, you know, that would be valuable. | 所以理论上,你知道,这将是有价值的。 |
| 835 | But the Chinese financial system and legal system is not one | 但中国的金融制度和法律制度并非一体 |
| 836 | that is currently anyway set up for, you know, to be receptive | 现在已经安排好了 接受 |
| 837 | to what would be, you know, trillions of dollars worth | 价值几万亿美元 |
| 838 | of financial inflows from the rest of the world. | 从世界其他地区流入的资金。 |
| 839 | You know, what is it that those investors would buy? | 那些投资者会买什么? |
| 840 | And would the Chinese government be comfortable having that much | 中国政府能有这么多钱吗? |
| 841 | of its, you know, of Chinese financial assets owned by foreigners | 外国人拥有的中国金融资产 |
| 842 | who might, you know, in a pinch need to sell it? | 谁可能,你知道, 在一个有限的需要出售它? |
| 843 | I mean, we saw even actually just in March in 2020 | 我的意思是,我们甚至看到 仅仅在2020年3月 |
| 844 | with the US Treasury market, which is sensibly, you know, the safe, | 与美国财政部的市场, 这是明智的,你知道,安全, |
| 845 | large, super liquid, the thing that, you know, the benchmark reserve asset. | 大型超级液体 基准储备资产 |
| 846 | And during COVID, basically, you had a situation where everyone | 在COVID期间,基本上, 你有一个情况,每个人都 |
| 847 | who had treasuries, not everyone, enough people who had treasuries, | 他们有国库,不是每个人, 足够的人有国库, |
| 848 | they found they were not quite what they needed for actual cash | 他们发现他们不是真正需要的 |
| 849 | to meet payments because they're worried about, you know, | 因为他们担心... |
| 850 | the pandemic just losing everything and they sold en masse. | 流行病只是失去了一切 他们大规模出售。 |
| 851 | They basically sold to buy things like treasury bills or whatever. | 他们基本上为了买国库券之类的东西 |
| 852 | So it wasn't as if it was a flight from the dollar, | 所以这不像是一架飞机从美元, |
| 853 | but it was a flight from treasury specifically. | 但它是一个航班 从财政部具体。 |
| 854 | The Fed had to step in. | 美联储不得不介入. |
| 855 | It was actually a bit of a crisis. | 这其实是有点危机。 |
| 856 | They spent, you know, a year and a half writing research papers | 他们花了一年半写研究论文 |
| 857 | on what happened, creating new facilities. | 创造新的设施 |
| 858 | Is that the kind of thing that the Chinese government would, | 中国政府会这样吗? |
| 859 | you know, feel comfortable, you know, exposing themselves | 你知道,感觉舒服,你知道, 暴露自己 |
| 860 | to that kind of potential volatility? | 那种潜在的波动? |
| 861 | It's the kind of thing that realistically other people would, | 现实中其他人会这样 |
| 862 | you know, feel trust that the Chinese government would have their back | 相信中国政府会支持他们 |
| 863 | in that kind of situation. | 在那种情况下。 |
| 864 | And that's leaving aside the fact that, you know, being open to that volume | 撇开事实,你知道的, 开放的量 |
| 865 | of financial inflows would then likely lead to the kinds | 因此,资金流入很可能导致这类投资。 |
| 866 | of potential distortions you have in your domestic economy | 可能扭曲你国内经济 |
| 867 | that we've seen in the United States | 我们在美国看到的 |
| 868 | and in the other advanced English-speaking economies, | 在其他先进的英语经济体, |
| 869 | which is the more your financial system is optimized | 你的金融系统越优化 |
| 870 | to serve the needs of the world as a whole, | 满足整个世界的需要, |
| 871 | which it has to be the case if you're going to be a reserve currency, | 如果要成为储备货币 就必须如此 |
| 872 | then that means the less optimized it is for, you know, | 那就是说,它不够优化,你知道, |
| 873 | the people in your country specifically. | 特别是你们国家的人民。 |
| 874 | And that creates all sorts of trade-offs that are unpleasant. | 这造成了各种不愉快的权衡。 |
| 875 | I mean, that's why people in the U.S. and elsewhere | 我的意思是,这就是为什么人们在美国和其他地方 |
| 876 | thinking maybe that we need to have some kind of a change, | 认为也许我们需要有 某种改变, |
| 877 | you know, would China want to go in sort of the opposite direction? | 你知道,中国会想走一个相反的方向吗? |
| 878 | I mean, there might be benefits to it, | 我的意思是,它可能有好处, |
| 879 | but it's not clear to me that that's something | 但我还不清楚这是什么 |
| 880 | that really is being, you know, done yet. | 这真的正在,你知道, 完成。 |
| 881 | And I mean, in practice, in terms of the actual foreign ownership share | 我的意思是,在实践中, 从实际的外国所有权份额来看 |
| 882 | of Chinese assets, it is still quite low. | 对于中国资产来说,仍然很低。 |
| 883 | It's still pretty controlled. | 它仍然相当控制。 |
| 884 | And I think that's probably because there is a lot of skepticism, | 我认为这可能是 因为有很多怀疑, |
| 885 | not unreasonable skepticism necessarily within China | 并非中国国内的不合理怀疑 |
| 886 | about whether that's good for them. | 是否对他们有好处 |
| 887 | So I sort of, I'm not sure, you know, | 所以我有点,我不知道,你知道, |
| 888 | Michael probably has other thoughts on this, | 迈克尔可能对此有其他想法 |
| 889 | but I'm not sure, you know, to what extent, | 但我不确定,你知道, 在什么程度上, |
| 890 | you know, that Yuan being a reserve currency, | 你知道,袁是一个储备货币, |
| 891 | you know, being a reserve currency on par with the dollar | 你知道,作为一个储备货币 与美元一样 |
| 892 | in terms of relative to the Chinese economy side, | 相对中国经济而言 |
| 893 | something that actually is in, you know, the near future at all. | 有些东西实际上是在,你知道, 最近的将来。 |
| 894 | Yeah, you know, I've been in China for 20 years | 是啊,你知道,我已经在中国20年了 |
| 895 | and it's always been the case that within five years, | 一直以来 五年之内 |
| 896 | it'll be a major reserve currency. | 这将是一个重要的储备货币。 |
| 897 | And it hasn't, it's barely moved. | 它没有,它几乎没有移动。 |
| 898 | In fact, if you adjust its share of global trade | 事实上,如果你调整它在全球贸易中的份额 |
| 899 | for the size of the economy, | 经济规模, |
| 900 | what's really shocking about China is not how important it's becoming | 中国真正令人震惊的不是它变得多么重要 |
| 901 | or the renminbi, but just how incredibly unimportant it is. | 或人民币, 但只是多么惊人的不重要。 |
| 902 | You know, it's on par with the Canadian dollar or the Mexican peso. | 和加拿大元或者墨西哥比索一样 |
| 903 | And there's a reason for that. | 则有因缘. |
| 904 | The renminbi is never going to become, | 人民币永远不会变成, |
| 905 | at least not for many decades and not without | 至少几十年没有 没有 |
| 906 | a very significant political change, | 一个非常重要的政治变革, |
| 907 | which I obviously don't want to discuss. | 我显然不想讨论这些 |
| 908 | It cannot become a major reserve currency. | 它不能成为主要的储备货币。 |
| 909 | And the reason is quite simple. | 原因很简单。 |
| 910 | If you want to have a major reserve currency, | 如果你想有一个主要的储备货币, |
| 911 | if you want to have one of the really important ones, | 如果你想有一个真正重要的, |
| 912 | you need to have a very large economy. | 你需要有一个非常大的经济。 |
| 913 | Okay, great. | 好吧,伟大的。 |
| 914 | China has a large economy. | 中国经济规模较大. |
| 915 | You need to give up control of your capital account. | 你要放弃对资本账户的控制 |
| 916 | You need to give up control of your current account. | 你得放弃对经常账户的控制 |
| 917 | You need to be able and willing to run huge current account deficits. | 你需要有能力和愿意 承受巨大的经常账户赤字。 |
| 918 | And you need to give up control of your financial system. | 你得放弃对金融系统的控制 |
| 919 | And there is absolutely no evidence that Beijing wants to do any of those things. | 而且绝对没有证据表明北京想做这些事情。 |
| 920 | When you talk to politicians and military people, | 当你跟政客和军人谈话时 |
| 921 | they say, yes, we want the renminbi to be a major currency | 他们说,是的,我们希望人民币成为主要货币 |
| 922 | because of all the political benefits that brings us. | 因为所有的政治利益给我们带来了。 |
| 923 | It does bring political benefits, but at huge economic cost. | 它确实带来政治利益,但付出了巨大的经济代价。 |
| 924 | And Beijing has made it very, very clear | 北京说得很清楚 |
| 925 | that they do not want to pay any of those economic costs. | 他们不想支付这些经济成本。 |
| 926 | And so that's why even at the PBOC, at the People's Bank of China, | 所以即使在PBOC,中国人民银行, |
| 927 | when people talk about the renminbi becoming a major reserve currency, | 当人们谈论人民币成为主要储备货币时, |
| 928 | you can tell that they're saying it mostly because they're supposed to say it. | 你可以看到,他们这样说 主要是因为他们应该说出来。 |
| 929 | They don't really believe it. | 他们不相信 |
| 930 | And they don't really believe it because they understand | 他们不相信,因为他们明白 |
| 931 | what reserve currency status, what a global trading currency status means. | 储备货币状况 全球贸易货币状况意味着什么 |
| 932 | Maybe the latest data suggests that renminbi represents | 也许最新数据显示人民币代表 |
| 933 | about 2.7% of international currency trade. | 约占国际货币贸易的2.7%。 |
| 934 | Maybe they'll go up to 3%, 3.5%. | 也许他们会升至3%,3.5%。 |
| 935 | We heard exactly the same talk about the Japanese yen. | 我们听到关于日元的同样说法 |
| 936 | And I think the Japanese, I think Japan is about 3% or 4% today. | 我认为日本人,我认为日本今天大约是3%或4%。 |
| 937 | Yeah, the yen is higher. | 是啊,日圆是更高的。 |
| 938 | Yeah, the yen and the pound are both significantly higher. | 是啊,日元和英镑都很高。 |
| 939 | The British pound, I mean, that's not a major economy. | 英磅,我的意思是,这不是一个主要的经济体。 |
| 940 | You know, 40 years later, the yen still hasn't. | 你知道,40年后, 日元还没有。 |
| 941 | If you read books in the 1990s talking about the currency regime of the 21st century, | 如果你在1990年代读过书 谈论21世纪的货币制度 |
| 942 | I guarantee you they will all say in the 21st century, | 我保证他们在21世纪都会说 |
| 943 | there will be two, maybe three major currencies, | 有两种,也许三种主要货币, |
| 944 | the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and maybe the European currency. | 美元,日元,也许欧洲货币。 |
| 945 | Nobody says that anymore. | 没人再这么说了 |
| 946 | I think it's because in order to become a major traded currency, | 我想是因为为了成为大交易货币 |
| 947 | you have to give up a lot of things that Japan was unwilling to give up | 你要放弃很多日本不愿放弃的东西 |
| 948 | and that China is certainly unwilling to give up. | 而中国当然不愿意放弃。 |
| 949 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 950 | This question from Paul Zhang. | 张保罗问. |
| 951 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 952 | My question is, as I understood that China's problem is that the internal demand is quite weak | 我的问题是,据我所知,中国的问题是 国内需求相当弱 |
| 953 | and there's a large gap between different groups of people. | 而不同人群之间差距很大. |
| 954 | So do you have any solutions for those problems? | 你对这些问题有什么解决办法吗? |
| 955 | The real gap is not between different groups of people. | 真正的差距并不在不同的群体之间。 |
| 956 | Common prosperity attempts to address that. | 共同繁荣试图解决这一问题。 |
| 957 | I think it won't work, but that's not the problem. | 我认为这行不通,但这不是问题所在。 |
| 958 | The problem in China is that whereas in most countries, | 中国的问题是,在大多数国家, |
| 959 | households retain 65 at the bottom to 80% at the top of GDP, in China it's 55. | 住户在国内生产总值中排在最下层的65至80%,在中国为55。 |
| 960 | And the counterbalance, you know, businesses retain 20 to 25, | 而平衡,你知道, 企业保留20到25, |
| 961 | which is roughly in line with most countries. | 这与大多数国家大致一致。 |
| 962 | The real distortion in China is that the government retains about 20 to 25% of GDP. | 中国真正扭曲的是,政府保留了GDP的20%至25%左右. |
| 963 | Now, in some Scandinavian countries, you see that too, | 现在,在一些斯堪的纳维亚国家, 你也看到了, |
| 964 | but government income is redirected through the social welfare system to the household sector. | 但是,政府收入通过社会福利系统转移到家庭部门。 |
| 965 | In China, it's not. | 在中国,则不然. |
| 966 | It's redirected into investment and basically to increase or to maintain savings, | 改用于投资 基本上是为了增加或保持储蓄 |
| 967 | not to increase consumption. | 不增加消费。 |
| 968 | So we know what the solution is. | 所以我们知道解决办法是什么。 |
| 969 | This is just arithmetic. | 这只是算术。 |
| 970 | You've got to transfer money from local governments to the household sector. | 各地要将地方政府的资金转移给户口部门. |
| 971 | The problem, as I said earlier, is that's politically incredibly complicated | 正如我之前说过的, 问题是政治上非常复杂 |
| 972 | and almost certainly requires significant, you know, let's call it institutional reform. | 而且几乎肯定需要重大, 你知道,让我们称之为机构改革。 |
| 973 | So it's very hard to do. | 故极难. |
| 974 | Very few countries have been able to do it. | 很少有国家能够做到这一点。 |
| 975 | You know, Japan had to rebalance and we started to see a partial rebalancing in the 1990s | 你知道,日本不得不重新平衡 我们开始看到在1990年代 部分的重新平衡 |
| 976 | and then it stalled out. | 然后就停了下来 |
| 977 | And it's not a coincidence that Japan still hasn't grown. | 而日本还没有成长,这并非偶然. |
| 978 | They've never been able to rebalance, even though they've been talking about it for years, | 他们从来没有能够重新平衡, 尽管他们谈论它多年, |
| 979 | about raising the consumption share of GDP. | 提高消费在国内生产总值中的份额。 |
| 980 | It's just been incredibly difficult to do. | 只是很难做到 |
| 981 | Okay, next question from Chen. | 好吧,下一个问题来自陈。 |
| 982 | First of all, thank you very much for this. | 首先,非常感谢你这样做。 |
| 983 | And I want to bring up a different view, if I may. | 我想提出一个不同的观点,如果可以的话。 |
| 984 | So I found this review by Michael Roberts. | 所以我发现了迈克尔·罗伯茨的评论 |
| 985 | And he argued that according to his review of your book, | 他辩称,根据他对你的书的评论, |
| 986 | it is not lack of consumption that is key to the class war. | 这不是缺乏消费是阶级战争的关键。 |
| 987 | It is actually the result of the declining profitability of capital | 其实是资本盈利率下降的结果 |
| 988 | in the major capitalist economies, forcing companies to look overseas | 在主要资本主义经济体, 迫使公司面向海外 |
| 989 | to invest where profitability is higher. | 在利润较高的地方投资。 |
| 990 | And besides, in your analysis, it actually reveals that there has been a rise | 此外,在你的分析中, 它实际上揭示了 有上升 |
| 991 | in consumption as a share of GDP in China in the last 10 years. | 消费占中国国内生产总值的比例。 |
| 992 | However, he also puts that you did not know that the investment ratio | 不过,他还说你不知道投资比率 |
| 993 | in emerging economies is up to 10% in the last 10 years. | 新兴经济体在过去十年中高达10%。 |
| 994 | So actually, this might be a little controversial, | 所以,实际上,这可能是 有点争议, |
| 995 | but I think it's quite interesting to have a little discussion on a different view. | 但是,我认为有一点点讨论 不同的观点是相当有趣的。 |
| 996 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 997 | Yeah, so I remember reading that review when it came out. | 是啊,所以我记得读 评论出来时。 |
| 998 | Yeah, I remember reading that review when it came out. | 是的,我记得读了评论出来的时候。 |
| 999 | I guess one thing I would say is it's important when talking about things | 我想我想说一件事,就是在谈论事情时很重要 |
| 1000 | like consumption and investment to distinguish between proportions of GDP and absolute levels. | 例如消费和投资,以区分国内生产总值的比例和绝对水平。 |
| 1001 | Because if you have a situation where overall GDP is flat or growing very weakly, | 因为如果你有 总体GDP 是平或增长非常弱, |
| 1002 | you can have the share of consumption going up or down or what have you, | 你可以有消费份额 上或下,或者你有什么, |
| 1003 | but it doesn't really tell you about is consumption growth strong relative to the past. | 但是它并没有真正告诉你 消费增长 相对于过去。 |
| 1004 | And so one of the points we make in the book, which I think was | 所以我们在书中提出的观点之一 我认为 |
| 1005 | surprising when I first found this out, but I think it's important | 我第一次发现这个时很惊讶 但我觉得这很重要 |
| 1006 | because it's counterintuitive to a lot of what I think a lot of us thought we knew. | 因为它是反直觉的 很多我认为,很多人认为我们知道。 |
| 1007 | In the period in the US since like 2000, 2006, | 在美国,从2000年到2006年 |
| 1008 | you have people think like, oh, consumer spending was just off the charts. | 你让别人觉得 消费者消费支出太少了 |
| 1009 | It was a crazy time. | 这是一个疯狂的时代。 |
| 1010 | Everyone was borrowing to buy 20 new hot tubs or whatever. | 每个人都借钱买20个新热水盆什么的 |
| 1011 | Actually, that's not true. | 其实,那不是真的。 |
| 1012 | Consumer spending in the US grew at a relatively weak pace in that period. | 在此期间,美国消费者支出的增长速度相对缓慢。 |
| 1013 | It wasn't tremendously weak, but it was weak relative to the long-term trend up until that | 虽然不是很弱 但相对于长期趋势来说很弱 |
| 1014 | point. | 点。 |
| 1015 | You look at inflation-adjusted consumer spending per person. | 你看看通货膨胀调整后的人均消费支出。 |
| 1016 | The reason why the consumption share of GDP grew during that period was because | 在此期间,消费占国内生产总值的比例增长的原因是: |
| 1017 | the rest of the economy was even weaker. | 经济的其余部分甚至更弱。 |
| 1018 | So basically, one way of looking at it is that households living standards were growing less | 因此,基本上,一个看方式是, 家庭的生活水平 增长较少 |
| 1019 | than they were before, slower rate. | 比以前要慢一点 |
| 1020 | But the reason that debt grew as much as it did is because incomes were growing. | 但是,债务增长与增长一样多的原因是收入增长。 |
| 1021 | The slowdown in income growth was even more severe. | 收入增长放缓更为严重。 |
| 1022 | So everything slowed down. | 所以一切都减慢了 |
| 1023 | Everything was weaker in that period, | 在那个时期,一切都变弱了 |
| 1024 | but income growth was even worse. | 但收入增长甚至更糟。 |
| 1025 | And so that's why the consumption share went up. | 这就是为什么消费份额上升的原因。 |
| 1026 | But that doesn't mean that there wasn't under consumption. | 但这并不意味着消费不足。 |
| 1027 | And you can look at this in a lot of other societies as well that had these kind of | 你可以在很多其他社会里看到这些 也有这种... |
| 1028 | issues. | 问题。 |
| 1029 | I mean, every society is different, so I don't want to say we should all | 我的意思是,每个社会都是不同的, 所以我不想说我们都应该 |
| 1030 | overgeneralize. | 过度概括。 |
| 1031 | We go into detail in the book about what happened in each country. | 我们在书中详细介绍了每个国家发生的事情。 |
| 1032 | But I think that's an important point. | 但我认为这很重要。 |
| 1033 | I would also question about the declining profitability of capital. | 我还要质疑资本的利润率下降。 |
| 1034 | Profits have been actually very strong throughout this period in the past few decades. | 在过去几十年中,在此期间利润实际上非常强劲。 |
| 1035 | In fact, they were rising. | 事实上,它们正在上升。 |
| 1036 | I think they maybe started to go... | 我想他们可能开始... |
| 1037 | Profit margins were going down a little bit before COVID, but I mean, they were very, very high | 利润率在COVID之前有所下降, 但是,他们非常,非常高 |
| 1038 | compared to previous periods globally. | 与前几个时期相比, |
| 1039 | So I'd sort of be skeptical of that kind of explanation of what's been happening. | 所以我有点怀疑 那种解释 发生了什么事。 |
| 1040 | That's sort of my... Not without having the full text in front of me or whatever of the review | 这算是我的... 不在我面前或者任何评论之前 都要有全文 |
| 1041 | based on what you said. | 根据你说的 |
| 1042 | Those are sort of my initial thoughts. | 这些是我的初衷 |
| 1043 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1044 | We almost ran out of time. | 我们快没时间了 |
| 1045 | Maybe the last question from Jin Yun. | 可能是金云最后问. |
| 1046 | Her question is, thank you for your speech. | 她的问题是,谢谢你的演讲。 |
| 1047 | Do you think your R&D settlement or all the trade in the near future? | 你认为你的研发协议 或所有贸易在最近的将来? |
| 1048 | What's the influence for the world? | 对世界有什么影响? |
| 1049 | You know, that's a very hard question to answer, not because | 你知道,这是一个非常困难的问题 回答,不是因为 |
| 1050 | it's hard to figure out what the answer is. | 很难知道答案是什么 |
| 1051 | I think the answer is it makes almost no difference. | 我认为答案是 这几乎没有区别。 |
| 1052 | It's a hard question to answer because it's very hard to understand | 这个问题很难回答 因为很难理解 |
| 1053 | the logic of why if somebody denominates a part of their oil trade in a particular currency, | 如果有人用某种货币将一部分石油贸易剥蚀, |
| 1054 | why that's so important. | 为什么这很重要? |
| 1055 | You know, what I always tell people is that if you have an iPhone, | 你知道,我总是告诉人们 如果你有iPhone, |
| 1056 | you can pretty much denominate trade in any currency you want for any commodity. | 你几乎可以去除任何货币交易 任何商品。 |
| 1057 | It doesn't really matter that much. | 这不重要 |
| 1058 | At the end of the day, when you sell oil, | 最终,当你出售石油, |
| 1059 | the important issue from the point of view of global trade is not what | 从全球贸易的角度来看,重要的问题不是 |
| 1060 | currency you denominate your trade in. | 货币,你贬低你的交易。 |
| 1061 | It really doesn't matter. | 这真的没关系。 |
| 1062 | You can sell oil in Ecuadorian sucres if you like. | 你可以用厄瓜多尔苏克雷语销售石油 |
| 1063 | The real question is what do you do with the currency? | 真正的问题是 你对货币做什么? |
| 1064 | And that means basically when you run a surplus, | 这意味着,基本上 当你有盈余, |
| 1065 | you must recycle that surplus into foreign assets. | 您必须将剩余部分回收到国外资产中。 |
| 1066 | So the real question is not what's the currency of the trade. | 所以真正的问题不是贸易的货币是什么. |
| 1067 | The real question is what are ultimately the foreign assets that you're going to acquire? | 真正的问题是,你最终要获得的外国资产是什么? |
| 1068 | Nothing there really changes. | 没有什么真正改变。 |
| 1069 | Most countries, when they acquire foreign assets, they do so directly or indirectly. | 大多数国家在获得外国资产时,直接或间接地这样做。 |
| 1070 | Roughly half of it is in the U.S. | 大约一半在美国 |
| 1071 | And of what's left, roughly half is in the other Anglophone economies. | 而剩下的,大约一半是在其他英语经济体。 |
| 1072 | And until that changes, nothing else will really change. | 直到这改变, 没有什么会真正改变。 |
| 1073 | The nomination itself doesn't really matter. | 提名本身并不重要. |
| 1074 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 1075 | Well, there's come another question. | 还有另一个问题 |
| 1076 | They ask about what's your opinion about industry transfer | 他们问你对产业转移有什么看法 |
| 1077 | can stop trade war or make a difference? | 可以停止贸易战争还是有所作为? |
| 1078 | I'm not sure I understand that. | 我不太明白这一点。 |
| 1079 | Matt, do you understand it? | 马特,你明白吗? |
| 1080 | I can think of a couple different interpretations of that question. | 我可以想出对该问题的几种不同解释。 |
| 1081 | So I'm not sure which one. | 所以我不确定是哪个 |
| 1082 | I mean, like industries moving from one country to another, | 我的意思是,像产业 从一个国家转移到另一个国家, |
| 1083 | or are you talking about technology transfers? | 或者你在谈论技术转让? |
| 1084 | Let me answer what I think the question is. | 让我回答我想的问题。 |
| 1085 | Maybe this is referring to offshoring industry, moving industries around. | 也许这指的是离岸外包产业, 移动产业周围。 |
| 1086 | There isn't a problem with moving a business | 搬家没什么问题 |
| 1087 | to a country that has a comparative advantage in that business. | 给一个在企业中具有相对优势的国家。 |
| 1088 | So for example, if an American manufacturer moves her factory to Vietnam, | 例如,如果一个美国制造商 把她的工厂搬到越南, |
| 1089 | because there is something about Vietnam that is more efficient | 因为越南有些东西更有效率 |
| 1090 | in the production of that good, that's not a problem. | 生产这些商品,那不成问题。 |
| 1091 | In a well-functioning world, she will move her factory to Vietnam. | 在一个运转良好的世界里 她会把工厂搬到越南 |
| 1092 | She will pay her workers. | 她会付工钱的 |
| 1093 | She will pay her workers something in line with their productivity. | 她会按照工人的生产力付给他们一些报酬。 |
| 1094 | Those workers will receive income and they must spend that income. | 这些工人将获得收入,他们必须花掉收入。 |
| 1095 | They will spend it either on imports or on domestic consumption. | 他们将将其用于进口或国内消费。 |
| 1096 | If they spend it on domestic consumption, | 如果他们花在家庭消费上 |
| 1097 | the recipients will then spend it on imports or domestic consumption. | 然后,受援国将将其用于进口或国内消费。 |
| 1098 | And as you go around, you'll see that ultimately, | 当你四处走动, 你会看到最终, |
| 1099 | they will import as much as they are now able to export | 它们现在能出口多少就进口多少 |
| 1100 | because of the transfer of the factory. | 因为工厂的转移。 |
| 1101 | So when you look at it from, assume there are two countries, the US and Vietnam, | 所以当你从这里看时 假设有两个国家 美国和越南 |
| 1102 | and the US manufacturer used to make things to sell to Americans | 以及美国制造商过去制造的东西 出售给美国人 |
| 1103 | and then decides it's better in Vietnam, moves the factory to Vietnam, | 然后决定在越南更好 将工厂搬到越南 |
| 1104 | what really happens? | 到底发生了什么? |
| 1105 | If the Vietnamese workers are paid relative to their productivity, | 如果越南工人的工资与其生产力相比, |
| 1106 | then all that will happen is that Vietnam will export stuff to the US | 那么,将发生的一切是 越南会出口的东西 美国 |
| 1107 | and will import just as much. | 并会同样进口。 |
| 1108 | So American workers at the factory will lose their jobs, | 所以工厂的美国工人会失业的 |
| 1109 | but American workers that produce the stuff that Vietnam imports | 但生产越南进口物品的美国工人 |
| 1110 | will have more jobs. | 将会有更多的工作。 |
| 1111 | And the net result will be that American productivity goes up | 净结果将是美国生产力上升 |
| 1112 | and Vietnamese productivity goes up. | 越南的生产力不断提高。 |
| 1113 | That's good trade. | 这是很好的交易。 |
| 1114 | If, however, and this is much more likely, | 但是,如果这更有可能的话, |
| 1115 | she moves her factory to Vietnam, not because of comparative advantage, | 她把工厂搬到越南 不是因为比较优势 |
| 1116 | but just because Vietnamese wages are so low, | 只是因为越南人的工资太低 |
| 1117 | then what's happening is that the Vietnamese will never be able | 那么发生的事情是 越南人永远无法 |
| 1118 | to import as much as they export. | 以同样多地导入。 |
| 1119 | So they will reduce global demand | 因此,它们将减少全球需求 |
| 1120 | and the American workers who lost their job won't be balanced | 失去工作的美国工人是无法平衡的 |
| 1121 | by other American workers who gain jobs | 由其他美国工人获得工作 |
| 1122 | because of higher American exports. | 因为美国的出口量较高 |
| 1123 | So in our book, we don't argue that offshoring is a bad thing. | 在我们的书中,我们不认为离岸外包是件坏事。 |
| 1124 | We don't argue that moving businesses around | 我们不争辩 移动的生意周围 |
| 1125 | to where they're more efficient is a bad thing. | 到效率更高的地方是坏事 |
| 1126 | What we argue is that if the only reason you move production | 我们所争论的是,如果你移动生产的唯一原因 |
| 1127 | is to take advantage of a bigger gap | 是利用更大的差距 |
| 1128 | between wages and productivity, | 在工资和生产力之间, |
| 1129 | then you're hurting the global economy. | 那你就会伤害全球经济 |
| 1130 | But if there isn't the gap, then it's not a problem at all. | 但如果没有缺口,那就完全不成问题了. |
| 1131 | That's how trade works. | 贸易就是这样运作的. |
| 1132 | That's how everyone gets richer | 人人都这么发财 |
| 1133 | in a well-functioning global trade environment. | 在运作良好的全球贸易环境中。 |
| 1134 | Yeah, I would also just add, just to follow on on that, | 是啊,我还想补充一下, 只是为了继续, |
| 1135 | there's nothing wrong, it would be good for the world | 没有什么不对的,对世界有好处 |
| 1136 | if every country is rich enough | 如果每一个国家都足够富有 |
| 1137 | and technologically sophisticated enough | 技术精良 |
| 1138 | to make their own airplanes and microchips and everything else. | 制造自己的飞机和微芯片 以及其他一切 |
| 1139 | It's not the idea that you have to hoard those industries | 这不是你必须囤积这些产业的想法 |
| 1140 | for yourself and that's the secret to prosperity is wrong. | 对自己来说 这就是繁荣的秘密是错误的 |
| 1141 | The reason why it would potentially be a problem | 为什么会有问题 |
| 1142 | is if those industries move and then the people, | 如果这些产业能动起来,然后人民, |
| 1143 | instead of saying, oh, we're richer now | 而不是说,哦,我们现在更富有了 |
| 1144 | because we make these things, we can import more stuff | 因为我们做这些东西, 我们可以进口更多的东西 |
| 1145 | or we don't need to export as much stuff, whatever. | 或者我们不需要出口那么多东西,什么的。 |
| 1146 | Otherwise, they have the same kind of existing | 否则,他们有同样的类型 现有的 |
| 1147 | trade imbalance problem because then it becomes an issue. | 贸易不平衡问题,因为它就成为一个问题。 |
| 1148 | As Michael was saying, there's nothing wrong with trade. | 正如迈克尔所说 贸易没什么问题 |
| 1149 | I mean, we are in favor of trade. | 我的意思是,我们赞成贸易。 |
| 1150 | I think trade is, there's all sorts of reasons | 我认为交易是,有各种各样的原因 |
| 1151 | why it makes sense to have people making things all over the world. | 为什么让全世界的人制造东西是有意义的。 |
| 1152 | The problem is if trade is basically the means | 问题是如果贸易基本上是手段 |
| 1153 | of getting around either environmental regulations | 绕过环境条例 |
| 1154 | or human rights rules or labor protections | 或人权规则或劳工保护 |
| 1155 | and basically kind of forcing your way down | 基本上强迫你下去 |
| 1156 | and having a way for business elites to basically squeeze workers | 并拥有一种方法 商业精英 基本上挤工人 |
| 1157 | at the expense of global workers everywhere. | 牺牲全球各地的工人。 |
| 1158 | That's really when it becomes a problem. | 这才是真正的问题 |
| 1159 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 1160 | Thank you so much. | 非常感谢 |
| 1161 | Thank you both of you for your very insight. | 谢谢你们俩的洞察力 |
| 1162 | Thank you very much. | 谢谢 |
| 1163 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1164 | As the last thing, it seems to be our tradition | 作为最后一件事, 它似乎是我们的传统 |
| 1165 | to take a group photo and now I also will unmute | 拍张合影,现在我也会解密 |
| 1166 | all the participants to say a thank you to both of you | 所有参与者向你们俩致谢 |
| 1167 | and also please turn on your camera. | 请打开你的摄像机 |
| 1168 | We want to take a photo with both. | 我们想和两人合影 |
| 1169 | I unfortunately, I have class, so I'm going to bag out | 很不幸,我有课,所以我要收拾行李 |
| 1170 | but thank you very much for this and goodbye everybody. | 非常感谢你们,大家再见 |
| 1171 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1172 | The Massey clan. | 马西族. |
| 1173 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1174 | Yeah. | 对 |
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